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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ericoides 1st Mar 2022 12:37


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11192756)
I sincerely hope they have a very special welcome planned for that convoy.

Perhaps not. You never know what's on board.

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 12:49


Originally Posted by fab777 (Post 11192758)
Were are our russian friends when we need their insight? Vitek ? A Van?

Gone?

Our very own minigundiplomat too. Maybe he's decided to call it quits after making a complete ar5e of himself.

Buster Hyman 1st Mar 2022 12:52

He got arrested protesting the War...:rolleyes:

On a side note, I wonder how the A-10 Pilots feel about the images of that convoy on the News.

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 12:58


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 11192796)
On a side note, I wonder how the A-10 Pilots feel about the images of that convoy on the News.

Probably ruing the fact the Hog can't carry even more ordnance...

trim it out 1st Mar 2022 13:09

Probably slightly worried about the surface to air threat given there are still Ukrainian jets getting knocked out the sky. It's not quite the Helmand HIDACZ free for all they were used to.

Spunky Monkey 1st Mar 2022 13:10

The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
He has his reason to justify the fight to his people and even start throwing big bombs.

Or we let it pass.

While TB2s can create some carnage, there is every chance that they will be lost and the progress will continue.
It might be better to let them get to their FUPs when they will be by necessity within the range of Ukrainian artillery. You can't have an FUP if you are continually being shelled and the mud in the area will create large obstacles.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.

Unless you have a mobile force of your own to attack the flank, there is little that can be done at this moment without the risk of escalation.

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 13:32


Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey (Post 11192804)
.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.
.

To be honest the world is a strange place. A short while ago I wouldn't have thought to see that phrase over here in a hopeful connection. We are actually wishing godspeed for the Migs. Extraordinary.

And I did not imagine writing the following: the Migs should take advantage of their strengths somewhere else and leave the convoy to the newly acquired SU-25's which are the tool for the purpose. The eastern equivalent of the A10.

Tyres O'Flaherty 1st Mar 2022 13:44

Reports that the Mooted MIGs and SU25's from Poland and Slovakia are not going to be delivered



Edie:


Beamr 1st Mar 2022 14:01

No fighter plane transfers to Ukraine through allied airspace
BY JOHN VANDIVER
• STARS AND STRIPES • MARCH 1, 2022

RZESZOW, Poland — NATO airspace will not be used to transfer fighter planes to the Ukrainian military, alliance leaders said Tuesday after a meeting in Poland, where top U.S. commanders were on hand for high-level security talks.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/eur...e-5185737.html

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 14:07


“We are not going to send any jets into Ukrainian airspace,”
Fly them into the Belarus airspace, take a whack at the convoy as they then enter Ukrainian airspace before landing and rearming ;)

henra 1st Mar 2022 14:12


Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey (Post 11192804)
The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.

I don't know where the idea comes from that NATO Forces would directly attack Russian convois?! They won't! End of. In all the Proxy wars since WWII both Russia and the US/NATO made sure to avoid direct casualties of the other side. And Boy have they indirectly supported the opposing force in those Proxy wars. But they were always careful not to directly kill Military personnel of 'the other side'
Like generally in the last 60 Years both sides are also this time looking to be more or less carefully ensuring not to cross any red lines. I have the impression that despite some strange musings of 'Mad Vlad' both sides are well aware what's at stake.

Spunky Monkey 1st Mar 2022 15:15


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11192828)
I don't know where the idea comes from that NATO Forces would directly attack Russian convois?! They won't! End of. In all the Proxy wars since WWII both Russia and the US/NATO made sure to avoid direct casualties of the other side. And Boy have they indirectly supported the opposing force in those Proxy wars. But they were always careful not to directly kill Military personnel of 'the other side'
Like generally in the last 60 Years both sides are also this time looking to be more or less carefully ensuring not to cross any red lines. I have the impression that despite some strange musings of 'Mad Vlad' both sides are well aware what's at stake.

There seems to be an awful lot of people saying we should whack the convey and put in a no fly zone.
I was trying to point out the lunacy of the idea.
As tempting a target as it is.
Regarding the Polish jets - make some decoys sitting outside of the hanger and the real aircraft somehow go missing - problem solved.

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 15:20

China wants to get involved

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d=winp1taskbar


China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

The statement marked a change in tone from Beijing. Asked on February 24 if the invasion represented a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, a spokesperson for Beijing’s foreign ministry characterised the situation as due to “a combination of factors” but did not describe it as a violation.

Fonsini 1st Mar 2022 15:30

Sounds like someone made a quick phone call to the Poles…

MAINJAFAD 1st Mar 2022 15:34


Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey (Post 11192804)
The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
He has his reason to justify the fight to his people and even start throwing big bombs.

Or we let it pass.

While TB2s can create some carnage, there is every chance that they will be lost and the progress will continue.
It might be better to let them get to their FUPs when they will be by necessity within the range of Ukrainian artillery. You can't have an FUP if you are continually being shelled and the mud in the area will create large obstacles.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.

Unless you have a mobile force of your own to attack the flank, there is little that can be done at this moment without the risk of escalation.

Time for a Toyota War. Large numbers of pick up trucks, armed with a heavy MG, a few ATGMs and a Stinger or two. Mobile phones and Starlink for command and control.

GeeRam 1st Mar 2022 15:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11192771)
Off Facebook.

Col. Oksanchenko won the Best Solo Jet Display Trophy at RIAT in 2017.


henra 1st Mar 2022 15:41


Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey (Post 11192860)
There seems to be an awful lot of people saying we should whack the convey and put in a no fly zone.
I was trying to point out the lunacy of the idea.
As tempting a target as it is.

OK thanks! Then I misinterpeted your post and do fully agree.

fab777 1st Mar 2022 15:43

Ukrainians claim they got one of those:

https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/7FlBDuvGFioT

They, too, want to play with the best toys.


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