Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11030783)

We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11030783)

We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.

Originally Posted by West Coast (Post 11030883)

Agreed. Imagine China will watch closely what the response of the US will be. Potentially a indication of what aggression against Taiwan will yield them,

Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11030928)

Judging by the rate of evolution of China's military capacity, defending Taiwan will be increasingly problematic. Taiwan could easily go nuclear as a deterrent, but that would precipitate the crisis that no one wants, so a slow boil is more likely. .
As pragmatic Chinese, I expect the Taiwanese to return to the motherland when the price is right, irrespective of the US's wishes. Given the technology treasures Taiwan offers, that price will be high.

Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11030954)

With Taiwan watching what's happened in Hong Kong, I respectfully disagree than Taiwan will ever voluntarily return - regardless of price.

Originally Posted by Fliegenmong (Post 11031257)

With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?

Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11031385)

Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbass enclaves would be suicidal.
Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbass would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier.
China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland.
It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China.

Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11031400)

Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.