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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Pali 1st Mar 2022 05:37


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192523)

Even after absorbing this info, I still wonder why Russia had to invade Ukraine now, as I understand that Ukrainian membership of NATO is effectively barred by that country having an on going border dispute. The issue was effectively settled when Russia took Crimea and Donbass in 2014. So why go further ?

Any statements about "NATO is closing to Russian borders" thus endangering security of Russia is a mere smoke screen. The real reason is the fact that country after country escaped out of the grip of this shrinking empire. Security is only a secondary thought. The key word is domination. They simply wanted to overthrow current government and install Yanukovich as a puppet leader and renew the old glory step by step.

If you really want to understand the doctrine of Russian imperialism just study the tsar's titles listed in the constitution of 1906, grab the map and locate all the aforementioned duchies, principalities and lands of interest. You will find the territory of many subdued non-Russian nations which simply wanted to escape the empire but in the Russian thinking it is Russia, period.

Art. 37:
By the Grace of God, We, NN, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, Moscow, Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod; Tsar of Kazan, Tsar of Astrakhan, Tsar of Poland, Tsar of Siberia, Tsar of Chersonese Taurian, Tsar of Georgia; Lord of Pskov and Grand Prince of Smolensk, Lithuania, Volhynia, Podolia, Finland; Prince of Estland, Livland, Courland, Semigalia, Samogitia, Belostok, Karelia, Tver, Yugra, Perm, Vyatka, Bolgar and others; Lord and Grand Prince of Nizhny Novgorod, Chernigov, Ryazan, Polotsk, Rostov, Yaroslavl, Beloozero, Udoria, Obdoria, Kondia, Vitebsk, Mstislav, and all of the northern countries Master; and Lord of Iberia, Kartli, and Kabardia lands and Armenian provinces; hereditary Sovereign and ruler of the Circassian and Mountainous Princes and of others; Lord of Turkestan; Heir of Norway; Duke of Schleswig-Holstein, Stormarn, Dithmarschen, and Oldenburg, and others, and others, and others.

Putin thinks of himself as a successor of tsars and considers any questioning of the original scope of empire as an insult.

tartare 1st Mar 2022 05:52

There's something particularly horrible about armoured battles.
The immense forces involved - the heat and mangling of really thick steel - God - you'd never get me anywhere near a tank.

oldmansquipper 1st Mar 2022 07:54


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11192563)
There's something particularly horrible about armoured battles.
The immense forces involved - the heat and mangling of really thick steel - God - you'd never get me anywhere near a tank.


With you on that I’m sure, but….


If Vlad continues with his replay of the 39-45 cup, they may well get near to you.

tartare 1st Mar 2022 08:12

Well, I'm hoping he doesn't wheel out those damned fractional orbital bombardment things - and lob a bomb around the south pole to Sydney!

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:21


At the moment, military pilots from Ukraine are in Poland. Today they receive 29 Polish MiG-29s. With full weapons and electronics. 🇵🇱
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #StopRussia #StandingWithUkraine
Two thoughts spring to mind. First, if push comes to shove, would Poland allow them to be operated from their airfields? Second, what impact does this have on Poland's air policing etc commitments?

fab777 1st Mar 2022 08:24

This is from a Ukrainian telegram account, so may be not accurate, but still, it raises some hopes that reason may prevail (google translation from ukrainian):

"Defenders of Odessa waited for two days for the landing of the occupiers, but the enemy did not come. Maybe that's why the riot on the ship. Details of the failed landing operation to capture Odessa ❗️❗️ They told some details of yesterday's failed attempt at a naval landing "directly to Odessa". At the same time, enemy helicopters and a large number of UAVs were flying in the bay. ro There was a real revolt on Russian ships: Russian men refused to obey orders and storm the coast of the Slavic Russian-speaking city."

Hope this is true...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:25


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11192525)
That Russian convoy moving to Kyiv is now 64km long!
Oh for a couple of fully loaded A-10s... what a Turkey shoot.

I'd wager your Hog pilot would be looking longingly at these pics...

I think the Ukrainians would have some success with artillery, if it could be directed well enough. Drop a round every hundred yards or so along the road - bound to hit something.

Also I did note in those satellite pics that the Ukrainians had failed to drop some of the bridges. A priority surely?

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 08:29

Bloody hell, its not 29 Mig 29's


In a move likely aimed at increasing pressure on Europe to act, the Ukrainian parliament on Monday tweeted that Europe was sending 70 fighter planes to Ukraine, including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-pil...lxEPNEHMJSdFEO


European Union foreign policy chief Josep Burrell said Sunday that individual EU countries had agreed to donate Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia's invasion, and Ukraine's parliament said Monday that Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia had agreed to give the country more than 70 MiG-29s and Su-25s. A Ukrainian government official told Politico Monday that Ukrainian pilots were already in Poland to start the process of taking control of the 28 MiG-29s they are expecting to be donated. (Joseph Trevithick at The Drive explains why he's skeptical.)

"The potential transfer of older Russian-made planes to be used in combat against Russian forces could be the most significant moment yet in a wave of promised arms transfers over the past 24 hours that includes thousands of anti-armor rockets, machine guns, artillery, and other equipment," Politico reports. But representatives from Poland and Slovakia did not respond to Politico's request for confirmation and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said Monday he had rejected Ukraine's request for fighter jets.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-...lxEPNEHMJSdFEO

Deadpan they had stopped flying the Mig29's and were replacing them

https://defence24.com/mig-29-and-su-...unched-by-2022

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:29


Originally Posted by fab777 (Post 11192616)
This is from a Ukrainian telegram account, so may be not accurate, but still, it raises some hopes that reason may prevail (google translation from ukrainian):

"Defenders of Odessa waited for two days for the landing of the occupiers, but the enemy did not come. Maybe that's why the riot on the ship. Details of the failed landing operation to capture Odessa ❗️❗️ They told some details of yesterday's failed attempt at a naval landing "directly to Odessa". At the same time, enemy helicopters and a large number of UAVs were flying in the bay. ro There was a real revolt on Russian ships: Russian men refused to obey orders and storm the coast of the Slavic Russian-speaking city."

Hope this is true...

Sounds a bit dubious, like the Ghost of Kiev. But who cares - anything to cast doubt into the mind of your average Russian conscript. Circulating stories about Russian forces rebelling could help stir things up...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11192618)

Any L159 owners fancy an outing? The International Brigade could have its own air force!

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 08:42

Snake Island soldiers were captured and not killed.

https://news.yahoo.com/snake-island-...153821884.html

trim it out 1st Mar 2022 08:44


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11192617)
I think the Ukrainians would have some success with artillery, if it could be directed well enough. Drop a round every hundred yards or so along the road - bound to hit something.

You make a good point about the use of artillery. During the 2014 Crimea scrap there was quite a bit of enthusiastic observance from NATO gunner types as to the TTPs of Russian artillery so I assume there is something similar going on now. I remember this dit being mentioned a few times.

Fortunately, gunnery is not quite the dark art some (including those in the Gunners) seem to think it is and a linear mission along an arbitrary line is simply a case of some basic computer maths. Made even easier if it's along a road as you can work it out from a map, you only need someone (on the ground or in the air) to observe the rounds are landing effectively. Biggest constraint is probably getting the guns into position without getting shwacked.

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 08:51

Even better if you happen to possess smart munitions or a grad upgrade kit. Have the target marked and shoot it somewhere in the general area of the enemy and you are doing pretty well. Coming down in a steep angle it'll be a pain for the ones in the MBT/APC.

Imagegear 1st Mar 2022 08:52

Here we go:

Ukraine will receive from Its European partners 70 military aircraft of the MiG-29 and Su-25 classes. This is reported by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, they will be allowed to be based in Europe so that our pilots can fly from there.
"Our partners are handing over The MiG-29 and Su-25 to us! If necessary, they will be able to be based at Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions,
  • Bulgaria (MiG-29) – 16 units
  • Bulgaria (Su-25) – 14 units
  • Poland (MiG-29) – 28 units
  • Slovakia (MiG-29) – 12 units

IG

Beamr 1st Mar 2022 08:54


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11192635)
they will be able to be based at Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions

Why am I being a bit worried how Putin will translate this...

dead_pan 1st Mar 2022 08:58


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192640)
Why am I being a bit worried how Putin will translate this...

Russian aircraft as using Belarusian airfields so fair's fair. I'm sure he'll understand...

NutLoose 1st Mar 2022 09:06

Someone's losing a lot of armour,.



..

trim it out 1st Mar 2022 09:08


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192634)
Even better if you happen to possess smart munitions or a grad upgrade kit. Have the target marked and shoot it somewhere in the general area of the enemy and you are doing pretty well. Coming down in a steep angle it'll be a pain for the ones in the MBT/APC.

From what I have seen so far, the only guided weapons being used are the man portable anti tank type and probably anything air delivered. I'm not too familiar with Ukrainian arty so unsure if they have any guided systems.

Arthur1815 1st Mar 2022 09:24

Snake Island
 

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11192628)
Snake Island soldiers were captured and not killed.

https://news.yahoo.com/snake-island-...153821884.html

Russian media showed them, or supposedly them, being fed and watered within a few hours, as well as being allowed to phone home to let family know they were very much alive. They claim there were 84 of them and that they surrendered almost immediately after the radio exchange. The truth is out there somewhere.


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