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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 11th Feb 2023, 17:32
  #14541 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​Kostyantinivka - Bakhmut road bridge over the canal has been destroyed. This greatly impedes the Ukrainian ability to counterattack west of Bakhmut and limits the usefulness of such operations.

Bakhmut is now definitely reliant on a single road.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 18:05
  #14542 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Fitter2
I am not sure what FlightDetent's first language is, so unable to decipher precisely what his (her?) point is; in any case the posts deserve to be in the JB Ukraine thread, if anywhere
You are correct.

The opinion was: With or without the US backing. if the Russians are not pushed outside UKR sovereign borders without much delay, the average western-EU citizen will lose interest in justice being upheld and slowly start asking for "peace".

This is doubly dangerous because the EU leaders (second-grade politicians who did not make the cut to rule in their respective countries) will immediately sense the opportunity and jump on that wagon, stomping one over another. They only sing the tune that gets them more support or steal votes from the next guy.

The eastern EU countries, with Poland exempt, are not relevant military or economical players to change much at all.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 18:32
  #14543 (permalink)  
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Russian units at Vuhledar taking over 50% casualties - and these are the remaining Marine and other front line units, not the mobiks…

​​​​​​​We have the statements of Russian POWs who surrendered at Vuhledar. In modern armies casualty rates that high are considered a total loss. Basically, the units of the Russian 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade from Vladivostok have been destroyed.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 18:36
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
Could Xeptu be the latest incarnation of Racedo? He seems to have a similar agenda.

From today's Guardian.
More like the ghost of Stalin


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Old 11th Feb 2023, 19:00
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Originally Posted by WB627
More like the ghost of Stalin

This is a good point. We do strongly bias our views based on our own perspective. Often that perspective is looking down the wrong end of a telescope. Sometimes it's the equivalent of Nelson's "I see no ships" and is a wilful distortion. Some atrocities are viewed as worse than others for no good reason.

A human life is a human life.

Doesn't matter what nationality they are.

Doesn't matter which god or gods they believe in.

Doesn't matter whether they are clever or stupid.

Doesn't matter if they are rich or poor.

All should carry the same weight when we judge those that murder them.

Stalin as a mass murderer is a good example. Another good example is Leopold II. Both get overshadowed by Hitler and his Nazis. Looked at dispassionately this makes no sense.

Hitler's Nazis murdered about 17 million in total.

Stalin murdered between 20 million and 60 million. The true figure isn't known. It may be as high as 60 million. Similar time frame to Hitler.

Leopold II murdered about the same number of people as Hitler, although 30 to 40 years earlier.

How is it that we place such significance on Hitler's atrocities yet don't place the same weight on those of Stalin or Leopold II?

My view is that it's because of the inherent bias we in the west have by virtue of the way we were taught history. Stalin was an ally during WWII. Leopold II was an ally during the time he was responsible for mass murders in the Congo (and a cousin of Queen Victoria). Both are views shaped by a misguided sense of empires and their protection. We can't undo history. Least we should do is try and put atrocities into better perspective.

Sorry for going off-topic. Doesn't hurt to emphasise history. Especially Russian history and the extreme atrocities and violence associated with it over the past century or more. Helps put their brutality in context.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 20:05
  #14546 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
Could Xeptu be the latest incarnation of Racedo? He seems to have a similar agenda.

From today's Guardian.
I have not read all of Xeptu's posts, but I would like to allow different opinions to be heard here.
Otherwise we risk becoming a "group think"/"echo chamber" and that is a waste of time.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 20:34
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Agreed.

BTW the Ukrainians seem to like the FV 103

​​​​​​​

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Old 11th Feb 2023, 20:38
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Originally Posted by Bug
I have not read all of Xeptu's posts, but I would like to allow different opinions to be heard here.
Otherwise we risk becoming a "group think"/"echo chamber" and that is a waste of time.
Who has suggested he be banned ? Can you tell us that ? It seems like you are setting up a strawman argument there. From my personal point of view, I have nothing against differing opinions, but when the arguments backing them are of the level of an adolescent child,(obviously a personal opinion ) then I feel it is reasonable to point that out.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 11th Feb 2023 at 20:57.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 21:23
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Agreed.

BTW the Ukrainians seem to like the FV 103



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...70782719893513

First tracked vehicle I ever drove was a CVR(T). Hard not to love it. It's like a bloody sports car compared with an MBT. Still remember driving it over the knife edge at Bovington. Scared ****less the first time. All you can see is sky. Then you're over the top and running down what feels like a bloody cliff.
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 22:51
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I need to clarify. I used the phrase "foot-soldiers" previously because you keep harping on about Britain not being part of continental Europe. This is only important if you are a foot-soldier and not one who can use use transport aircraft to cross 30 miles of sea.

Once again your statements leave me confused as you seem to see nothing wrong in contradicting yourself ( then ignore attempts asking you to explain ). You have just written:

The UK gets a 10/10 for its support, well done you, even though we don't see you as a European Nation. France gets a 0/10, clearly isn't getting involved.

Whereas in post 14490 your opinion was:

"With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless."

So sometimes Britain is u#%ing useless. and then gets a 10, whereas France alternately gets 0/10 and is then mentioned as an exception to the general uselessness. Do you see why I am puzzled ?




Personally I feel that is a dramatic exaggeration. Yes, there has been some disagreement, but when contrasted with what has been achieved - and delivered in terms of materiel and training by many countries -, and the fact that the continued stated aim is for Ukraine to win and support will continue, it is clearly untrue. Whether that is truly what is what is being presented to the public Down Under, I don't know, but having read what you post here, I think it is far more likely that you are distorting the hell out of it.
I'm trying to tell you how we see it as we see and hear and understand in our part of the world. It may not necessarily be factually correct. The UK has provided sterling support, probably because it's the one we hear most about, "We" don't "see" the UK as a European Nation. That doesn't need any further explanation.

There is a perceived dissent among NATO countries in Europe, we are not confident that the NATO Alliance will actually function as intended if it were called upon to do that.

The US has vested interests in The Netherlands (technical), Germany,(technical) Russia (natural resources) and Ukraine (Agricultural and Natural resources)., it doesn't really care about the rest.

The US doesn't want to be the world police anymore for no other reason than it's young people would rather colonise space than patrolling the oceans. It has been rolling back that capability for at least a decade.

That's how we see it, please don't shoot the messenger and any further posts about this should be in JB
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Old 11th Feb 2023, 22:58
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 00:20
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I'm trying to tell you how we see it as we see and hear and understand in our part of the world.
To clarify, what is your part of the world?
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 07:02
  #14553 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation content. This guy really is focused on the target


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Old 12th Feb 2023, 07:21
  #14554 (permalink)  
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Ukraine forming 8 Brigades of “Offensive Guards”. Seem to be follow on forces to clear and hold territory after the army has gone through.

20,000 volunteers signed up already.

https://visitukraine.today/blog/1477...-much-they-pay

The offensive guard in Ukraine: what kind of formation is it, who is hired and how much they pay

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the basis of the units will be policemen, border guards, and national guardsmen. But the officer corps will consist of sergeants and soldiers who have combat experience and showed themselves in the best way during the defense of Donbas since 2014 and the liberation of Kharkiv region in 2022….





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Old 12th Feb 2023, 08:33
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SAAB announced that it plans to produce 400000 NLAWs annually by 2025. In essence quadriplying the production from 2022.

SAAB will probably grant the sales achievement of the year award to Russian Armed Forces for astounding merit in providing targets for Ukrainian infantry equipped with NLAW's.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/...-units-a-year/

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Old 12th Feb 2023, 08:42
  #14556 (permalink)  
 
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The end of Wagner PMC in the horizon?
Russian version of the night of the long knives coming up?

The more the head zombies fight with each other the better for Ukraine and the rest of the world.


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Old 12th Feb 2023, 09:04
  #14557 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
I'm trying to tell you how we see it as we see and hear and understand in our part of the world. It may not necessarily be factually correct....That's how we see it, please don't shoot the messenger and any further posts about this should be in JB
Gibberish from start to finish.
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 11:00
  #14558 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
The end of Wagner PMC in the horizon?
Russian version of the night of the long knives coming up?
Not surprising.
I was rather surprised how long Putin allowed Prigozhin to enter more and more aggressively the public stage. Prigozhin could become dangerous for him unlike Kadyrov (Muslim).
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 12:17
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Interesting data helping Russian tankies to choose their tools wisely: If you are a Russian tankie and want to win the turret tossing contest, your choice is the T-80U. If unavailable choose the T-90.


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Old 12th Feb 2023, 12:43
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BBC reporting that Russian soldiers are currently dying at a rate that's the highest since the first week of the war, at an average of 824 per day. Data comes from the Ukrainian side (naturally), but is considered reliable.

Ukraine "also continues to suffer a high attrition rate".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099
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