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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:36
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Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?

Did the part of The Troubles than took place on the UK mainland make anyone in the UK say "Well they have a point"?

Did constant bombing the NVA cause them to stop

etc etc

What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it?

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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:37
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Russia will implode by itself after they realise that they are unable to violently keep the occupied territories. Let them fight each other.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:38
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?

Did the part of The Troubles than took place on the UK mainland make anyone in the UK say "Well they have a point"?

Did constant bombing the NVA cause them to stop

etc etc

What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it?
No one is talking about a Blitz or a Rolling Thunder on Russian cities, it's a non sequitur.

What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it?
Ukraine is not the Troubles. A far more relevant question would be to ask what ended the Second World War in Europe?
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:42
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Russia will implode by itself after they realise that they are unable to violently keep the occupied territories. Let them fight each other.
I do suspect that the loss of Crimea will have a profound effect on the Russian psyche, if and when it happens.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:46
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
I do suspect that the loss of Crimea will have a profound effect on the Russian psyche, and and when it happens.
What then, in your opinion, are the respective Russian and Ukrainian Schwerpunkten, if we go back to Clausewitz, which is where I think this discussion is leading.?
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:50
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Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
However I suspect that Putin would hold defensive postions during the winter and attempt a full offensive in the spring with aim of the destroying the Ukrainian army.
Agreed, he is trying to buy time with the lives of his troops while fortifying his positions, the problem I can see him having is in transport, armour and tanks, while trying to assemble a credible force for the spring.
That is why it is more important to give Ukraine the weapons to destroy the bridges and rail infrastructure now, giving shorter range weaponary fine as it is, but is simply kicking the can down the road at the expense of Ukrainian lives, they need the ability to strike now and take advantage in driving them out from their country before those defences become insurmountable, they then need the ability to hold it against any future agression. I would imagine Ukraine taking Crimea back would be Putins swan song.

The less the ability to transport into Ukraine the less cold weather kit they have..

As he says, just return the favour..

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Old 28th Nov 2022, 15:55
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
What then, in your opinion, are the respective Russian and Ukrainian Schwerpunkten, if we go back to Clausewitz, which is where I think this discussion is leading.?
For Ukraine, assuming that Crimea comes after all other territories have been recovered, its recapture would effectively end the current 'hot' phase of the war, and what follows will largely depend on how Russia reacts. As Zelensky noted at the outset, Ukraine will unlikely become a 'normal' state in the foreseeable future, and may well have to adopt an 'Israeli' mentality when it comes to its security.

If and when Ukraine recovers its territories, I would hope and expect that the West extends membership of NATO and the EU to give it the security guarantees we were supposed to give it under the Budapest Memorandum at the end of the Cold War, and also to send Russia the message that Ukraine is lost to them forever.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 17:28
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
I don't believe you can do a direct read-across from Afghanistan to Ukraine. For Putin (and also for Russia more generally), Ukraine is an existential matter in a way that Afghanistan just wasn't - the Russian people could walk away from Afghanistan when it all got a bit too much, in a way that they just won't be able or willing to walk away from Ukraine regardless of the death toll. For them, Ukraine is Russia.

The only way this can end favourably for Ukraine and the West, is to give Ukrainians the tools to end the war decisively on their terms, and that means long-range weapons. Let Putin talk about 'escalation' - he's being doing that since before the war started. He's bad but he's not (yet) mad, and he knows as well as anyone what the West can inflict on Russia if it oversteps the mark.
Your point about the comparison between Afghanistan and Ukraine is valid which means this conflict has aspects of a civil war. But no matter how many victories the Ukrainians manage I don't believe that they will ever have the military strength to drive the Russians back behind their borders. To put it crudely the Ukrainians need to inflict 4 casualities for every 1 of their own.

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Old 28th Nov 2022, 17:44
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Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
However I suspect that Putin would hold defensive postions during the winter and attempt a full offensive in the spring with aim of the destroying the Ukrainian army.
???
With which troops and which equipment? The 60's gear we saw lately as a replacement for the lost more contemporary stuff will be gone by then. What do you think they will dig aout as a replacement fior that. Heck, they didn't even have enough Kalashnikovs or general Personal Equipment for the Mobiks.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 18:04
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They keep their good material in reserve. By spring they will be busy defending their backs. This is what they will need it for.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 18:45
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Those who summon up the mythical "Blitz Spirit" need to read the actual historical investigations as opposed to propaganda. Irrespective of the country or the conflict the reality is not the propaganda. Here are a few links re the British experience.

"Sixty-thousand people were conscientious objectors; a quarter of London's population fled to the country; Churchill and the royal family were booed while touring the aftermath of air-raids; "

https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/3613.../9780712698207
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...el-coronavirus
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryU.../Blitz-Spirit/
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/honorstheses/397/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/britis...%20the%20Nazis.

However in respect of Ukraine the above are not necessarily that relevant, but nevertheless it is wise to know the truth of the past before attempting to understand the present.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 18:49
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Hmmmm. Depends on The quality of the troops and equipment.




he keeps quoting him but who is he?

https://twitter.com/search?q=Maj.(Rtd)Hauser%20&src=typed_query


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Last edited by NutLoose; 28th Nov 2022 at 19:11.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 19:15
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Iíll wait for a more formal analysis than that from Maj (Retd) Hauser. Who is he?
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 19:19
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?
No. Because Hitler did not pursue the Blitz to any form of conclusion.
RAF Bomber command however did start to break the resolve of the German people by systematically destroying each German city.
They did have to drop 2500 tons a day to do it however.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 19:37
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Originally Posted by uxb99
No. Because Hitler did not pursue the Blitz to any form of conclusion.
RAF Bomber command however did start to break the resolve of the German people by systematically destroying each German city.
They did have to drop 2500 tons a day to do it however.
It did however allow the RAF to recover by taking the attack away from key military targets
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 19:54
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We have to consider that while Russia may still have some reserves to send into the fight like aircraft, tanks and men so does the west.
If Russia did stage a winter offensive and start to push the Ukrainians back (I think unlikely but never underestimate your enemy) the West would have no option (and I think America would be the main supplier here) to send better equipment.
Russia risks losing it's reserves very quickly if it finds itself embroiled in a more high tech war than it's seen so far.
Russia will be bringing up more modern equipment it's been holding in reserve. The West is still giving Ukraine it's outdated equipment.
That's an interesting war of attrition when you think about it.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 20:17
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?

Did the part of The Troubles than took place on the UK mainland make anyone in the UK say "Well they have a point"?

Did constant bombing the NVA cause them to stop

etc etc

What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it?
I agree. There are too many examples of using warfare as an ineffective means of "sending a message" and mostly because we fail to grasp the mind of the audience. Strikes against targets in Russia, if there are any, should be to impact Russia's ability to make strikes against Ukraine and to reduce its material capacity to wage war. In spite of Russia's attack on Ukrainian civilians, having little practical military effect, Ukraine should not do the same. As stated by several, Ukraine is smaller than Russia by every measure except morality and grit. Focus limited military resources on Russian military resources to make them all the more limited and keep the world on your side.
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 20:40
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I am of the opinion that if Russia attempted and looked like winning a counter offensive, it would inevitably drag NATO into the conflict. The simple reason being that under absolutely no circumstances can we now allow Russia to take Ukraine!
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Old 28th Nov 2022, 20:50
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Thatís proved itís worth, I better the crew were bricking it. Minor damage lol. Tyres?

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Old 28th Nov 2022, 20:56
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Trip wires left in Kherson attached to grenades

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