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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 6th Dec 2022, 00:25
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Preliminary lessons on the Ukrainian war and lessons the West and the RAF need to learn from it amongst other things.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...uary-july-2022
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 00:27
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You don't need missiles to take out substations

Tens of thousands in North Carolina without power after substations hit with gunfire

Lots of targets in Russia for the specops folks. Tit for tat
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 03:46
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Anyone have suggestions about a good place to donate to help Ukraine? I'd like to send some money but hesitate because of scammers.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 03:57
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In the waning days of November and early December, 1863, the U.S. Army of the Potomac engaged in a series of abortive offensives in Virginia known as the Mine Run Campaign. It was inconclusive from the operational perspective and the armies went into winter camps….


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...621378560.html
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 04:21
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Anyone have suggestions about a good place to donate to help Ukraine? I'd like to send some money but hesitate because of scammers.
Fundraiser by John Parker : John's Red Bus Ukraine War Refugee Fundraiser (gofundme.com)

A Ukranian friend put me in touch with this lot and I have driven consignments of goods to their depot. PM me if you want more info. I'm back in Blighty next week.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 04:29
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Section of Russian missile (?) lands on Moldovan territory. Not the first time, and in October three Russian missiles fired from the Black Sea allegedly flew over Moldovan airspace.
Russian Missile Terror Threatens Not Only Ukraine. Foreign Ministry Comments On Fall Of Missile On Territory | Ukrainian news (ukranews.com)Quote: Earlier Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said Russia uses Moldova’s airspace to launch missile strikes at Ukraine. Russian cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea at Ukraine entered Moldova’s airspace on Oct. 10.
Missile falls in Moldova amid Russian fresh attack on Ukraine (yahoo.com)



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Old 6th Dec 2022, 04:37
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Originally Posted by ORAC
A new but covert wave of mobilisation will begin in Russia in January 2023, according to multiple sources who have spoken to the 'We can explain' Telegram channel. It will reportedly include raids on places of residence to round up men for the army.…
The beaches in the Gulf states are crowded with draft dodgers.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 05:03
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SU-30SM base.

A Large Fire is now Confirmed to have broken out at Kursk Vostochny Airport/Airbase, although the cause is not yet known.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 05:47
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Originally Posted by ORAC
SU-30SM base.

A Large Fire is now Confirmed to have broken out at Kursk Vostochny Airport/Airbase, although the cause is not yet known.
said to be a drone attack. Some 120km from Ukrainian border.


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Old 6th Dec 2022, 07:14
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
The beaches in the Gulf states are crowded with draft dodgers.

There are also many tens of thousands of mostly younger Russians that have fled to places like Georgia and Uzbekistan. There are a fair few, mostly young, Russian vloggers on YouTube now, giving their perspective on their country's actions. I've been following a few for some time, from the first young man that had to get out of Russia in a hurry ("Zack the Russian") for protesting, to many others that didn't openly condemn the war at first, but most of whom are now using stronger and stronger language to show their dislike of what Putin is doing in Ukraine.

These seem to be bright, articulate, well-educated Russian young people, and the stories they tell are of many thousands like tham moving out of Russia. This started before mobilisation, too, so doesn't seem to be purely driven by dodging the draft. Undoubtedly some have moved for economic reasons, too. Those making a living producing Russian lifestyle and travel vlogs will have had to move as they could no longer receive income due to sanctions.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 09:17
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
There are also many tens of thousands of mostly younger Russians that have fled to places like Georgia and Uzbekistan. There are a fair few, mostly young, Russian vloggers on YouTube now, giving their perspective on their country's actions. I've been following a few for some time, from the first young man that had to get out of Russia in a hurry ("Zack the Russian") for protesting, to many others that didn't openly condemn the war at first, but most of whom are now using stronger and stronger language to show their dislike of what Putin is doing in Ukraine.

These seem to be bright, articulate, well-educated Russian young people, and the stories they tell are of many thousands like tham moving out of Russia. This started before mobilisation, too, so doesn't seem to be purely driven by dodging the draft. Undoubtedly some have moved for economic reasons, too. Those making a living producing Russian lifestyle and travel vlogs will have had to move as they could no longer receive income due to sanctions.

And then there are those who dodged the draft by leaving Russia for decadent west and yet discriminate Ukrainians.
Here's an example of Russian expats mistaking UK reg car in Helsinki as Ukrainian and acting accordingly...



Last edited by Beamr; 6th Dec 2022 at 09:50.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 09:43
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The Khalino military airfield in Kursk fuel farm fire in daylight, burn baby burn, that will cause problems.

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Old 6th Dec 2022, 11:12
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Originally Posted by Beamr
And then there are those who dodged the draft by leaving Russia for decadent west and yet discriminate Ukrainians.
Here's an example of Russian expats mistaking UK reg car in Helsinki as Ukrainian and acting accordingly...

https://twitter.com/TOrynski/status/1599695510322847744

And the relevance between that and thousands of young Russians going to Georgia and Uzbekistan is?

I can certainly see why Russians that support their government would go to Finland and cause a nuisance. I struggle to see a connection with the thousands of Russians that obviously do not support their government fleeing to places like Georgia and Uzbekistan. One problem young Russians face when trying to flee Russia is that there are few countries they can travel too, as many countries won't allow Russians in now. The visa problems that Russians trying to flee from their country because of their government's actions are well documented. One of the more rational young vloggers, Niki Prosin, explained the restricted choice they have in a video a few months ago.

It is worth spending some time listening to their views, especially the way those views have changed as they have become more aware of what their government has been doing in their name. I know this won't go down with at all well those that prefer to demonise all Russians, but my view is that it's always worth trying to gain some understanding of the views of all sides, even if the quality and reliability of some of the data given is less than 100% reliable. What we don't know is how many Russians have left because they either don't agree with their government or they are dodging mobilisation. This photo of the queues trying to get into Georgia a while ago shows that the numbers seem fairly high:





I will add that I have no dog in this fight, have no way of knowing how valid anything said by some of these Russian vloggers is, and no way of knowing their true motives for leaving Russia. What does seem true is that many tens of thousands of Russians have left, though.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 11:37
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As he says, heroes

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Old 6th Dec 2022, 11:40
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
it's always worth trying to gain some understanding of the views of all sides, even if the quality and reliability of some of the data given is less than 100% reliable.
.
This was my point as well, to give a view from the other perspective as well. Some may have fleed the regime and draft out of genuine disagreement with the regime, others may have left just to avoid draft still being supporter of the regime. And some just don't give a cr@p and leave to spend their rubles somewhere warm and peaceful.

Unfortunately the incident I linked is not an isolated one.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 11:56
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Anyone have suggestions about a good place to donate to help Ukraine? I'd like to send some money but hesitate because of scammers.
Would a donations account setup by the National Bank of Ukraine (Central Bank, the state institution) do?

https://helpua.bank.gov.ua/?lang=en


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Old 6th Dec 2022, 12:04
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Originally Posted by Beamr
This was my point as well, to give a view from the other perspective as well. Some may have fleed the regime and draft out of genuine disagreement with the regime, others may have left just to avoid draft still being supporter of the regime. And some just don't give a cr@p and leave to spend their rubles somewhere warm and peaceful.

Unfortunately the incident I linked is not an isolated one.
By way of transparency, I will add that my wife is East German. I smuggled her out of the Soviet Zone, illicitly, in the early 1980's (with a degree of misuse of diplomatic privileges). Perhaps that colours my view of peoples that live under authoritarian regimes.
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 12:50
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
By way of transparency, I will add that my wife is East German. I smuggled her out of the Soviet Zone, illicitly, in the early 1980's (with a degree of misuse of diplomatic privileges). Perhaps that colours my view of peoples that live under authoritarian regimes.
Ah, yes, that left me wondering how was the Opel modified?
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 12:59
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Support Ukraine

..
Posted by Winemaker
Anyone have suggestions about a good place to donate to help Ukraine? I'd like to send some money but hesitate because of scammers.
Or the President's initiative - "United24" - https://u24.gov.ua/
Seems to work a treat. Select your currency and preferred purpose.

LFH
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Old 6th Dec 2022, 13:13
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
His UK sticker is on the wrong side too, believe it or not you are supposed to put them on the drivers side as an indication to those following that the car is left or right hand drive, not a lot know that, hence it is rather a moot point.
Incorrect.

UK stickers are advised to be put on the off-side rear of your vehicle as a indicator to traffic that may be overtaking that you aren't a 'native' driver.
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