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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Apr 2021, 16:59
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We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
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Old 19th Apr 2021, 17:07
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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QRA from the Med ?

...
RAF F-35B Lightning stealth jets and Merlin submarine-hunting helicopters are to stand ready on the task group's flag ship, the carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, to support the warships in the Black Sea should they be threatened by Russian warships, submarines or aircraft. HMS Queen Elizabeth has to stay in the Mediterranean because an international treaty prohibits aircraft carriers from entering the Black Sea.
I'd like to see the planned Head Office response time to a call for backup when a Kilo surfaces within range and gives them the bird.

Ready 10, loaded for bear - then ten days waiting for dip clearance.

LFH
...
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Old 19th Apr 2021, 21:40
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
Agreed. Imagine China will watch closely what the response of the US will be. Potentially a indication of what aggression against Taiwan will yield them,
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Old 19th Apr 2021, 23:27
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
We all seem to be forgetting one major fact, the U.K. and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine... all of it, not a little here and a little there, but all of it in an agreement with the Ukraine for disarming their nuclear weapons, which at the time was the worlds third largest stockpile. We are obligated, like it or not.
That is a valid point, although I wonder how it applies in the case of a civil war. Iirc, these nukes, property of the Soviet Union, were transferred to Russia.
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Old 19th Apr 2021, 23:40
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Agreed. Imagine China will watch closely what the response of the US will be. Potentially a indication of what aggression against Taiwan will yield them,
Judging by the rate of evolution of China's military capacity, defending Taiwan will be increasingly problematic. Taiwan could easily go nuclear as a deterrent, but that would precipitate the crisis that no one wants, so a slow boil is more likely. .
As pragmatic Chinese, I expect the Taiwanese to return to the motherland when the price is right, irrespective of the US's wishes. Given the technology treasures Taiwan offers, that price will be high.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 01:27
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Judging by the rate of evolution of China's military capacity, defending Taiwan will be increasingly problematic. Taiwan could easily go nuclear as a deterrent, but that would precipitate the crisis that no one wants, so a slow boil is more likely. .
As pragmatic Chinese, I expect the Taiwanese to return to the motherland when the price is right, irrespective of the US's wishes. Given the technology treasures Taiwan offers, that price will be high.
With Taiwan watching what's happened in Hong Kong, I respectfully disagree than Taiwan will ever voluntarily return - regardless of price.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 11:12
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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100,000 rooskis massed on the border.
That's.. ermm... quite a few soldiers for a mere show of force?
Or am I wrong...
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 11:22
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Soldiers? They're just friends, honest.................
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 12:45
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Russia destroying mercenaries and vehicles in Syria last night . Who knows maybe they are serious about those red lines ?
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 13:33
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[QUOTE=ORAC;11030538]West Coast, there are only 22 countries the UK has never invaded. I think that’s a record that will be hard to beat....

(It might be less than that - see link below reference Guatemala. I spent 3 happy months at Butcher radar in Belize back in 1979. The same may apply to a couple of the others as well)
QUOTE]
ORAC- that depends on how you classify 'invade'. The source book apparently does so thus:
  • any military presence in a country, including in support of the local power;
  • any naval actions in territorial waters, even against third parties;
  • military actions by non-state actors such as British mercenaries and pirates, assuming they had at least tacit consent by Britain.

A chap on Quora - search for (sorry- too virginal to post URLs) How-accurate-is-the-assertion-that-Britain-has-invaded-all-but-22-countries-in-the-world - has thrashed through the book and come up with some interesting and differing views on the actuality. Lots of links to the actions and quite a fascinating summary. Yes, we still made our presence known around the world that in today's light is unpalatable. I'm sure someone will now say 'still not good reading though....'
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 13:41
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Originally Posted by tdracer
With Taiwan watching what's happened in Hong Kong, I respectfully disagree than Taiwan will ever voluntarily return - regardless of price.
The Hang Sen Hong Kong stock market index, up about 30% since January, suggests a more positive view, even though it is still well down from its 2018 high.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 14:04
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With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 17:56
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Originally Posted by Fliegenmong
With action in Eastern Europe would not a play on Taiwan work at the some time? Russia & China are a lot closer now than before....War in Europe, the Pearl Harbour....War in Ukraine, then Taiwan?
Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbas enclaves would be suicidal.
Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbas would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier.
China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland.
It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China.

Last edited by etudiant; 21st Apr 2021 at 01:44.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 18:29
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Possibly true, but there has to be a plausible purpose for these countries, all of whom have catastrophic birth rates well below replacement value, to start killing each other's most fertile population segment.
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide. Thus far, we've only had a desultory civil war, probably the best possible result given the Kiev mindset. Russia seems desperate to impress the Ukraine leadership that a renewed assault on the Donbass enclaves would be suicidal.
Given that the tenuous legitimacy of the Russian regime rests on its claims of protecting the Russian community, I'd think that a wave of 'ethnic cleansing' in the Donbass would be fatal for the current Russian leadership. Presumably it would be replaced by something much nastier.
China and Taiwan both agree, there is but one China. The 'one country, two systems' formulation has kept the peace for several decades under the US military aegis, which is now looking rather threadbare. Still, the value of Taiwan is its people and the technical know how they have achieved. Those Chinese assets evaporate in a war, which Beijing understands quite well. Beijing can afford to wait for a decade, while moving to show Taiwan that the US relationship is less attractive than a full reintegration with the motherland.
It would be interesting to see whether India will step in to try to woo Taiwan, as that country offers even more potential than China.
Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 21:56
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Originally Posted by highflyer40
Have you ever been to Taiwan? The people would rather die than go back to being part of China. The problem is mainland China is also of the same mindset in reverse. They will do everything to reabsorb Taiwan. When that happens the rest of the world will make lots of noise but in the end do nothing.
It may be that the Taiwanese would prefer to die rather than live under Xi's rule, but if so, they need to get a nuclear deterrent and make it public.
Otherwise, your forecast is likely correct.
I might add that there does not appear to be crushing anxiety in Taiwan, the news reports I've seen indicate the drought is getting more attention than the threat of a Chinese invasion.
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 07:35
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There are a couple of threads about China & Taiwan - this one is for E Europe I think
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 09:50
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Russia is reacting to the Ukraine leadership's decision to demonize that country's substantial Russian minority.
When the head of a state is on record as desiring the removal/disappearance of a substantial minority, it usually results in civil war or genocide.
Could you please tell more details of this?
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Old 21st Apr 2021, 09:52
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And now back to your regular programme...
Article, video & photos etc in The Times.

Images show Russian ‘invasion force’ near border

Ukraine accused Russian-backed separatists of attempting to provoke its military yesterday, as satellite images indicate that the Kremlin has dramatically increased the number of its warplanes massing on the countries’ shared border and in Crimea.

There are growing fears that Russia could repeat its 2014 military incursion into Ukraine, when Crimea was annexed and Moscow provided support for a nascent separatist movement in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Airborne troops, attack helicopters and reconnaissance drones have also been stationed near the border. Satellite images published by The Wall Street Journal show Su-30 fighters on a runway in Crimea. The photographs were taken on April 16, according to the newspaper. Images taken in late March do not show the aircraft. Images of locations elsewhere in the region show that other warplanes have also been flown in, including Su-34s and Su-27s.

“[The Russians] have appropriately deployed the various elements of air power that would be needed to establish air superiority over the battlefield and directly support the ground troops,” Philip Breedlove, a retired US air force general, told the newspaper. Breedlove was the top Nato military commander during the 2014 conflict.

Officials in Kiev said yesterday that the massed ranks of Russian troops already outweighed the forces that took part in the Kremlin’s operation in 2014. “Russian troops continue to arrive in close proximity to our borders in the northeast, in the east and in the south.

“In about a week they are expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops,” said Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister. He added: “This does not mean that they will stop building up their forces at that number.”

Kuleba said that 30 Ukrainian troops had been killed on the front line since the start of the year, most by snipers. “Ukrainian troops have been ordered not to react to provocations,” he said. “A sniper shot is premeditated murder.”

In the Donbas region Ukrainian soldiers said they were under regular sniper fire from pro-Russian forces that they believe include members of the regular Russian army. Russia has denied sending troops to Ukraine and says that any of its servicemen there are “on vacation.”

More than 14,000 people have been killed since the conflict erupted.

At a front-line position near the east Ukrainian village of Shumy, a Ukrainian serviceman named Andriy pointed out where the bullets were coming from: “See the white roof over there? Look a little to right from it. This is the water tower. The snipers shoot from it. They want us to shoot back to destroy this watertower so that they can accuse Ukraine of destroying important infrastructure,” he said.

Another soldier said pro-Russian forces were barely 70 metres from their lines: “The snipers get into the ditch and click their triggers. The sound is very clear. They do it to show that they are there. This is psychological pressure.”

Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said on Monday that Russia had concentrated more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and in Crimea. The figure was later revised downwards by the EU to more than 100,000.

The build up comes at a low ebb in relations between Washington and Moscow after the US imposed a series of sanctions and expulsions last week targeting Russian interests.

Russia has said the deployments are part of a three-week military drill to test combat readiness in response to what it calls threatening behaviour from Nato. It has said the exercise is due to end within two weeks.

William Burns, the CIA director, told Congress last week that the build up was probably an effort by Moscow to intimidate the Ukrainian government, as a warning to the Biden administration. “That build up has reached the point where it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion as well,” said Burns. “So it’s something not only the United States but also our allies have to take very seriously.”

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said yesterday that Ukraine was seeking to destabilise the situation in the Donbas region. He also accused Nato of “provocative actions”.

Before imposing sanctions on Moscow last week President Biden, 78, spoke to President Putin and proposed a summit between the two leaders, saying he wanted a constructive relationship.

The meeting has yet to be confirmed but Putin, 68, will take part in a virtual climate conference tomorrow and on Friday organised by the White House.

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Old 22nd Apr 2021, 13:55
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56842763

Russia to pull troops back from near Ukraine

After weeks of tension over a build-up of Russian troops close to Ukraine's border, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered a number of units in the area back to their bases.

The EU estimated that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had amassed near the border as well as in Crimea, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014.

Speaking in Crimea, Mr Shoigu said units on exercise would return to base.

The aims of the "snap checks" had been achieved, he added.

"The troops have demonstrated their ability to provide a credible defence for the country," he said, adding that he had instructed the commanders of units from the 58th and 41st armies as well as several airborne divisions to start returning to their "permanent bases" on Friday and to complete the operation by 1 May.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the troop build-up with European leaders last week, and has since challenged Russia's President Vladimir Putin to meet him in the conflict zone. Nato leaders have also sounded the alarm and have called a summit in June when Russia will be high on the agenda. Although Russia has shrugged off the build-up as training exercises in response to "threatening" actions from Nato, it is also said to be planning to cordon off areas of the Black Sea to foreign shipping. Ukraine fears its ports could be affected. As tensions escalated between Russia and the West, US President Joe Biden contacted Mr Putin last week proposing a summit in a third country. In a state of the nation address on Wednesday, President Putin warned the West against "crossing the red line".

Conflict in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014, after the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. Russian-backed troops captured large areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk region and there have been a number of breaches of a ceasefire in the east in recent weeks. A Ukrainian soldier was fatally wounded in shelling on Thursday, in what Ukrainian forces said was a deliberate violation of the ceasefire. Some 14,000 people have died since the conflict began.
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Old 22nd Apr 2021, 16:48
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine as buffer

That's a relief, really. For now at least. 👍🏿😎
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