Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I hope her service record was based on more than Twitter?
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MGD - Very much more than Twitter, IIRC. ... AFC (or AFDO if you prefer) In the days before BSM - such a milllennial title (though no less important a job) don't you think ?
I always look for ORAC's posts to keep me up to date on important subjects, as invariably informative and inclusive. Mostly stuff I could never find for myself.
LFH
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... more than Twitter ?
I always look for ORAC's posts to keep me up to date on important subjects, as invariably informative and inclusive. Mostly stuff I could never find for myself.
LFH
...
Join Date: Feb 2006
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=tartare;11185796]Don't be ridiculous.
I value Oracs posts - she's pretty balanced and objective and has a service record to back her insights.
I value Oracs posts - she's pretty balanced and objective and has a service record to back her insights.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,892
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I did wonder if some of his troops relocation out of the “front” line were simply to R and R for those that have been on the front for a considerable time
Everything seems prepared. Fighters, attack helicopters, artillery pieces, troops, bridges, hospitals and blood supplies.
Putin has put everything in place for an invasion and of course he knows that the West see what is happening.
You then must ask why would he do this in the full knowledge that the eye in the sky is watching. Either it is an elaborate bluff or he is ready to rock.
He also undoubtedly knows about preparation fatigue. Troops cannot be ready to pounce for an indefinite time. He cannot tell the troops on the ground that they definitely will or won’t being going in, because it will leak…and they are all probably as scared and confused as we are. They have homes and families - a reality he cannot ignore indefinitely.
He has 2 options in my opinion- withdraw (maybe not immediately but at some point), or attack.
Here is the thing - and my wife is Russian born although not raised there but she has many relatives who are born, raised and live there so she knows their psyche… Putin would rather die than appear weak IHHO - he will roll the dice and attack.
My bet is Saturday. It will be grim, bloody and will not stay constrained in Ukraine. He cannot leave this earth without a determined attempt to bring Russia back to the force it was within the USSR. It will become WWIII in short order.
I would be utterly delighted to be wrong.
Putin has put everything in place for an invasion and of course he knows that the West see what is happening.
You then must ask why would he do this in the full knowledge that the eye in the sky is watching. Either it is an elaborate bluff or he is ready to rock.
He also undoubtedly knows about preparation fatigue. Troops cannot be ready to pounce for an indefinite time. He cannot tell the troops on the ground that they definitely will or won’t being going in, because it will leak…and they are all probably as scared and confused as we are. They have homes and families - a reality he cannot ignore indefinitely.
He has 2 options in my opinion- withdraw (maybe not immediately but at some point), or attack.
Here is the thing - and my wife is Russian born although not raised there but she has many relatives who are born, raised and live there so she knows their psyche… Putin would rather die than appear weak IHHO - he will roll the dice and attack.
My bet is Saturday. It will be grim, bloody and will not stay constrained in Ukraine. He cannot leave this earth without a determined attempt to bring Russia back to the force it was within the USSR. It will become WWIII in short order.
I would be utterly delighted to be wrong.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
What, you ma6 ask, does a BMD use a parachute for?
“Like its predecessor, the BMD-4 is capable of parachuting from aircraft with the entire crew and passengers inside the vehicle which allows target engagement after landing to be instant. An Il-76 is able to transport two of these vehicles at a time in comparison to three BMD-1s and BMD-2s.”
Tula is the home air base for a regiment of IL-76 transport.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klokovo
“Like its predecessor, the BMD-4 is capable of parachuting from aircraft with the entire crew and passengers inside the vehicle which allows target engagement after landing to be instant. An Il-76 is able to transport two of these vehicles at a time in comparison to three BMD-1s and BMD-2s.”
Tula is the home air base for a regiment of IL-76 transport.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klokovo
My bet is that Putin will try to attach left bank of Dnieper to Russia. First of all he needs to solve the unbearable problem with water for Crimea. Also if we look at his article from July 2021 as a manifest, this "Novorossiya" thing is the irreducible minimum he considers a true Russian territory. Remember the "corridor" to East Prussia Hitler demanded?
West will not intervene by military means other than sending arms to Kiev. Russia will try to subdue Ukraine by the means of hybrid war even after this hot war but will not try to control the western parts of the country because they've learned a lesson or two in Afghanistan and Chechnya. You can't win a war over territory where the population doesn't consider your culture as a desired value.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Why stop there when Odessa and a land corridor to Transnistria is within reach?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa
Putin would rather die than appear weak
As many have said, he's getting old, and this is his last spin of the wheel. Unless someone powerful is a position to dilute his ego, this will play out in blood.
IG
a feat which would be called - Diplomacy
On BBC News
- Russian President Vladimir Putin will oversee major military exercises on 19 February
- There will be ballistic and cruise missile launches, and tests to see how ready its nuclear armaments are, Russia says
- The drills are "fairly regular", says the Kremlin, and not an escalation of the standoff with Ukraine
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ominous….
https://www.rt.com/russia/549874-bre...on-evacuation/
Breakaway Ukrainian region orders evacuation
Ukrainian troops have been bolstered with arms supplies from Western nations and “are now prepositioned for combat and ready to take Donbass by force,” Denis Pushilin claimed in a statement on Friday, referring to his region and fellow breakaway entity, the Lugansk People’s Republic, by their collective name.
The Ukrainian rebels are expecting President Volodymyr Zelensky to order an offensive “in the nearest future.” Their military forces are prepared to fight, but civilians in rebel-controlled areas are at risk of being caught in the crossfire, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic warned.
“That is why starting today, February 18, a mass evacuation of people to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said, adding that vulnerable groups like women, children, and the elderly would be given priority.
Pushilin said Russian officials in the neighboring Rostov Region are expecting an inflow of evacuees and will provide them with what they need. There will be conditions at border crossings to expedite the process, he added. He urged people “to heed to the warning and take the right decision,” saying that the relocation would be temporary and would save lives.…..
https://www.rt.com/russia/549874-bre...on-evacuation/
Breakaway Ukrainian region orders evacuation
Ukrainian troops have been bolstered with arms supplies from Western nations and “are now prepositioned for combat and ready to take Donbass by force,” Denis Pushilin claimed in a statement on Friday, referring to his region and fellow breakaway entity, the Lugansk People’s Republic, by their collective name.
The Ukrainian rebels are expecting President Volodymyr Zelensky to order an offensive “in the nearest future.” Their military forces are prepared to fight, but civilians in rebel-controlled areas are at risk of being caught in the crossfire, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic warned.
“That is why starting today, February 18, a mass evacuation of people to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said, adding that vulnerable groups like women, children, and the elderly would be given priority.
Pushilin said Russian officials in the neighboring Rostov Region are expecting an inflow of evacuees and will provide them with what they need. There will be conditions at border crossings to expedite the process, he added. He urged people “to heed to the warning and take the right decision,” saying that the relocation would be temporary and would save lives.…..
Lukashenko, who is in Russia, also talking about a potential conflict.
Lukashenko: "For the first time in 30 years we are on the edge of a conflict that will envelop the entire continent." Blames West for escalation.
It is going to be very difficult to maintain the peace in a country with so many weapons and so many deep divisions. Diversity can quickly become divisions. Once sectarian violence gets started it is very difficult to stop . The opportunities for sectarian violence have not been so great since an orthodox assassin killed a high Catholic Duke in Sarajevo.