Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Don't politicians in the west get tired of ****ting their pants by setting dates for Russian invasions and then being wrong when the said date comes and goes?
In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
Don't politicians in the west get tired of ****ting their pants by setting dates for Russian invasions and then being wrong when the said date comes and goes?
In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
Or Crimea, there is no right fo rRussia to invade sovereign countries and annex parts form those.
As second, without the western countries exposing Russias plans to enslave ukrainians, Putin would've already attacked Ukraine.
Plenty of US Global Hawks showing on Flight Radar over the last week, but no Russian equivalent on the other side of the border. Wouldn't intelligence gathered by such devices be just as essential to the Russians if a Russian invasion was imminent . . . Unless they don't carry ADS-B.
Too much unwanted attention. Not preventing it but delaying it with last minute phone calls, negotiations and top level activities. I hope it is mud season now.
In recent history, it was possible to execute an invasion and occupy a country with very little exposure of intent to either the targets or potential allies. In this age of social media, 24 hour news, live webcam and video feeds, the world is made aware of the intentions of an attacker.
The masses can assess the validity of claims by either sides, and consign the spin, lies, trolls and political bluster to the bin. An incursion or invasion of this magnitude will almost instantly be visible.
If attackers realize that their plans, stance and posture are completely visible and understood, they may decide that the reaction to the incursion may not be in their best interests. Hence all of the surveillance assets trundling around, and the decision to make them visible via ADSB is part of the social media campaign. (You will have noticed that the Russians are not allowing ADSB for any military asset) which also makes a statement about what they are doing if they choose not to disclose their position or intentions,
IG
The masses can assess the validity of claims by either sides, and consign the spin, lies, trolls and political bluster to the bin. An incursion or invasion of this magnitude will almost instantly be visible.
If attackers realize that their plans, stance and posture are completely visible and understood, they may decide that the reaction to the incursion may not be in their best interests. Hence all of the surveillance assets trundling around, and the decision to make them visible via ADSB is part of the social media campaign. (You will have noticed that the Russians are not allowing ADSB for any military asset) which also makes a statement about what they are doing if they choose not to disclose their position or intentions,
IG
Last edited by Imagegear; 21st Feb 2022 at 11:12.
Hard to claim (credibly) that you haven't spent the last couple of months planning an invasion if the rest of the World have had a running commentary on those invasion plans. So it doesn't prevent the invasion, but does make it awfully hard to claim it was a necessary response to a (false flag) incident or series of incidents.
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Hard to claim (credibly) that you haven't spent the last couple of months planning an invasion if the rest of the World have had a running commentary on those invasion plans. So it doesn't prevent the invasion, but does make it awfully hard to claim it was a necessary response to a (false flag) incident or series of incidents.
It's reconnaissance by proxy..
If location of the opposition's assets are fairly well known, I take it, it would be possible for NATO to publish details of the tracks of the oppositions reconnaisance drones, so that the public World-Wide and other interested parties could see what's happening and guage whether this activity was rising or falling. Ditto details of all NATOs reconnaisance assets - the opposition's military hierarchy would already know most of this detail and, accordingly, security would not be jeopardised.
In essence, They know a lot, but not a lot is given out.
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It's starting
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795
Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic, and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Luhansk People's Republic, are reported to be in Moscow.
Their appeals have been shown by Russian state TV.
Putin told his security council it was necessary to consider the appeals.
"Our objective, the objective of our meeting today is to listen to colleagues and decide on our next steps in this area," Putin said.
If he agrees, it could lead to Moscow openly sending military forces into both regions, using the claim that it is intervening as an ally to protect them from Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795
UK warns that it has intelligence that Russia is planning an invasion and plan has "already begun"
A spokesman for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told a media briefing that intelligence reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to launch an invasion of Ukraine.
"The intelligence we are seeing suggests that Russia intends to launch an invasion and that President Putin's plan has already begun," the spokesman told reporters.
"We're seeing seen elements of the Russian playbook that we would expect to see in certain situations, starting to play out in real time."
A spokesman for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told a media briefing that intelligence reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to launch an invasion of Ukraine.
"The intelligence we are seeing suggests that Russia intends to launch an invasion and that President Putin's plan has already begun," the spokesman told reporters.
"We're seeing seen elements of the Russian playbook that we would expect to see in certain situations, starting to play out in real time."
Rebel-held regions ask Putin to recognise them as independent
Two separatist leaders from Ukraine have appealed to Vladimir Putin to recognise their "people's republics" as independent states.Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic, and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Luhansk People's Republic, are reported to be in Moscow.
Their appeals have been shown by Russian state TV.
Putin told his security council it was necessary to consider the appeals.
"Our objective, the objective of our meeting today is to listen to colleagues and decide on our next steps in this area," Putin said.
If he agrees, it could lead to Moscow openly sending military forces into both regions, using the claim that it is intervening as an ally to protect them from Ukraine.
On one of the many Whatsapp groups now populated by hundreds of foreign journalists covering this crisis, beleaguered Ukrainian officials are trying desperately to stem the flow of bizarre and potentially explosive allegations coming from pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.
This morning they’ve been forced to deny reports that a Russian border post was attacked by Ukrainian forces (an allegation accompanied by a rather sorry looking shed in the middle of woodland) and that five Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and two Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers destroyed when they strayed across the border into Russian territory near Rostov.
There is no evidence to suggest either of these things happened, but officials are forced to deny each any every allegation, no matter how absurd or unlikely.
This morning they’ve been forced to deny reports that a Russian border post was attacked by Ukrainian forces (an allegation accompanied by a rather sorry looking shed in the middle of woodland) and that five Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and two Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers destroyed when they strayed across the border into Russian territory near Rostov.
There is no evidence to suggest either of these things happened, but officials are forced to deny each any every allegation, no matter how absurd or unlikely.
I wonder if these two breakaway regions will be allowed to retain their independence post any invasion? My guess is that the issue will quietly be shelved, it having served its purpose.
Have to say the western media is playing a full and central part in amplifying this BS propaganda. Almost every UK MSM outlet is running with the story about the alleged Ukrainian incursion. Is fact checking not a thing anymore?
On one of the many Whatsapp groups now populated by hundreds of foreign journalists covering this crisis, beleaguered Ukrainian officials are trying desperately to stem the flow of bizarre and potentially explosive allegations coming from pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.
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If the Ukraine was going to have done anything so stupid, one would have thought they would have struck when all this nice Russian armour etc was all parked up in great big clusters or on railheads..
A few random thoughts regarding Russia's subsumption to China, likely sanctions etc:
- Sanctions could impact Russia's upcoming 5G network roll-out, given likely restrictions on access to western tech. Would Huawei then be in the running and, if so, what would the Russian state think about this given the concerns widely aired in the West? (similarly Russian consumers - no more iPhones etc)
- Sanctions could extend to access to aviation spares, servicing etc. If so this comprehensively phuq Russia's airlines, who are major Boeing/Airbus operators.
- Russia really has only two markets for its natural gas, given the absence of any significant liquefaction/LNG transportation capacity. Losing one would leave it exposed to the demands of the other.
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According to The Sun, last Wednesday, but Putin probably never got his copy
According to the NOTAM, some time this week would seem to be the current plan.
I actually didn't realise you were supposed to issue a NOTAM before starting a war, but given their 2014 screw-up I guess it makes sense...
I actually didn't realise you were supposed to issue a NOTAM before starting a war, but given their 2014 screw-up I guess it makes sense...
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And the US recognised the state of Israel, but they didn’t move in. Independent is independent.