Originally Posted by
Usertim
Whilst dropping the dam is just the kind of insane action that might be attractive to the russians ( and they have history from WW2 of blowing Dnipr dams) , if you look at a topography map the left bank of the Dnipr is on average considerably lower elevation than the right. The flooding would be much worse south of the river as FDR alluded. The Khakova dam is perhaps currently holding back more water (18 cubic km) than the Hoover dam ( nominally 32 cubic km when Lake Mead is full, which it certainly is not in recent years).
Depressingly this makes the alternative reasons for urging evacuation of Kherson city more believable.
Or they can go full crazy mode and nuke the dam for a doubly powerful statement.
The maximum fall at the dam is 14 meters. There is a fair volume behind the wall certainly, however the terrain is as below. If Vlad was sitting on the high ground, then that would be a plan, it is a fantastic way to drown his own troops, shades of the little tank (Zed car T-72 B3) hiding in the pond as the tractors pass by. The entrained debris would put paid to the canal with a reasonable expectation of a great success for Ukraine by Vlad Putinating his own infrastructure. Since the destruction of the easternmost bridges into Crimea long time back, the road to Crimea is by way of the lowlands east of Kherson. Flooding that immediately before winter is going to definitely be taking it's place in the military strategy manuals.
Originally Posted by
jolihokistix
@Usertim. Irradiate the Crimean water supply, then?
Or Pootan’s Bluff?
Hard sell back to the home crowd on that. Putin generally doesn't care, but the people that are currently around him that can take him out may care a bit more, if Putin loses public support, he goes from shark to baby seal in a 1.95 seconds. ( 6 story drop, Vo=0, g=9.81 m/sec...)
Crimea has a special place in the Russian psyche, which is odd, as it really has little to do with them, but they apparently like the sandy beaches. Would have thought Sochi did that too.
Originally Posted by
Usertim
Well that is another sensible reason not to blow the dam, there would be no head of water for the canal. I doubt radiation would be an issue though after all that water washed through .
I think the canal is overstated in its importance, it is largely economic - 80% of the water was used for irrigation or industry. Russia may not care about that anymore. According to wiki (!) the area under cultivation in crimea declined by 90% between 2014 and 2017 ( those figures seem very high for such a short period though).
The debris will take out the canal all by itself. It is on the low side of the water course, 14m is not as much as it would be with a gravity dam, but there is a fair old volume to be dumped, and it will make a mess on the low side. Which is Putin-side.
Kind of neat, get named as a terrorist state and take out your own reason for any public support, which is the only thing between the circling sharks and Putin becoming a pavement pizza beside Lenin's tomb.