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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 7th Oct 2022, 08:28
  #10221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by peter we
Ukrainians have clarified that they were referring to sanctions not nuclear strikes.
To be "certain" that a TNW is about to be used is not possible until one is in flight ..... any officer in the chain could refuse to launch. It has happened before.

History is littered with apparently rational decisions based on poor int. For example:

The continuation of Passchendaele
The location of Arnhem dro[p
Gulf War II.

Pre-emptive might just be legal [as if that mattered afterwards] if a country party to the war were to be involved. Pre-emptive by that party, not some interested outsider like NATO.
I acknowledge that the Ukr war has become a proxy war but NATO or "the West" is not party.
In my opinion the correct way to go is massive conventional aid to Ukraine after a TNW, and limited to the annexed territories. That way Ukr gets its land back, badly dented, its decimated [i.e. losing 1 in 10] population back, and Russia retreats into its self-created stone age for a generation.
Further escalation would be by Russia, and would invite Armageddon of course.

This is not a Hollywood epic.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 08:30
  #10222 (permalink)  
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Apart from middle page articles on drone warfare and iron ore shipments there was nothing in todays Times on war progress or the dangers of nuclear escalation! Are they ( we ) burying our heads in the sand?
Lead story…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...iden-cdmmll35c

Putin risking ‘Armageddon’ with nuclear threat, says Biden

Threat greater than any time since Cuban missile crisis, says president
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 08:48
  #10223 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Lead story…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...iden-cdmmll35c

Putin risking ‘Armageddon’ with nuclear threat, says Biden

Threat greater than any time since Cuban missile crisis, says president
should have gone to Specsavers
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 08:57
  #10224 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Lead story…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...iden-cdmmll35c

Putin risking ‘Armageddon’ with nuclear threat, says Biden

Threat greater than any time since Cuban missile crisis, says president
I don't think it was the best of plans to go public with this line - it only reinforces Putin's message and will only encourage him to further up the ante.

Much better to have kept to the lower key line they've been using up till now, along the lines of "we don't think he will but are fully prepared if he does".

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Old 7th Oct 2022, 09:01
  #10225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Kherson supplies:

When all pontoon ferries are working (it's hard task to track them all), 🇷🇺 gets about 1/3 of their needed supplies.

🇷🇺 captured near Kherson have lost 10-15kg, have blank eyes, they absolutely don't trust command, can't establish communications for 3 days.

Those were contract solders from elite 🇷🇺 units.
Sort of related, but Ukraine's "I Want to Live" programme aimed at encouraging Russian troops to surrender could be a masterstroke. I guess the Russians are told to state that they were captured and didn't surrender when they phone their relatives to give them the news.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 10:02
  #10226 (permalink)  
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Since Feb. 24, Ukraine's Armed Forces have captured at least 440 Russian MBT and 650 other armored vehicles, which make up "over half of Ukraine's currently fielded tank fleet," the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 7.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:15
  #10227 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I don't think it was the best of plans to go public with this line - it only reinforces Putin's message and will only encourage him to further up the ante.

Much better to have kept to the lower key line they've been using up till now, along the lines of "we don't think he will but are fully prepared if he does".

Actually I do, I think it is a subtle way of telling Putin if you used a Nuke the retalitory attack will be a Nuke... thus letting him know without any doubt what the response will be without actually saying it. I.E back off from going there or you will receive what you unleash.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:22
  #10228 (permalink)  
 
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That's going to hurt. Still, a better outcome than that of the Russian caught hiding in an outdoor loo.




Last edited by Wokkafans; 7th Oct 2022 at 11:23. Reason: Additional link.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:24
  #10229 (permalink)  
 
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What the mobilised get in one region, pack of sanitary pads, a car first aid kit and a bar of chocolate.


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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:34
  #10230 (permalink)  
 
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I would hate to live downstairs from a Russian... working toilet, what's that? let's punch a hole through the floor and sh*t there.


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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:41
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I would hate to live downstairs from a Russian... working toilet, what's that? let's punch a hole through the floor and sh*t there.
GRAPHIC - one way to clear a loo. Hiding in a place with no visibility was never going to work out well. What a waste of a life.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Last edited by Wokkafans; 7th Oct 2022 at 12:05.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:51
  #10232 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC @ LANGLEY BASTION

re Times news on Ukraine

touche - BUT I have rechecked my Times on Line and this article ISN’T in it ???

i am still surprised that Ukraine is not front page - but I see the argument that it should be kept low profile ?.

Hopefully a lot is going on behind the scene ??

PS I have just been to specsavers!


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Old 7th Oct 2022, 11:55
  #10233 (permalink)  
 
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State TV admiting failures in activating reserves earlier and expecting more to be called up.

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Old 7th Oct 2022, 12:21
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Here is a cunning idea, we keep seeing liberated villages with Ukrainians hanging up flags at the town signs, what they need to do is have a bunch of fake signs manufactured for towns behind the Russian front lines and then put them up on social media showing the" liberation" of the fake signs.... Russia will not know what is going on or who is where and what is behind them causing panic and withdrawls..

Wokka, I posted another a while back where it showed two Russian soldiers indulging in some "oral" activities, the drone dropped a grenade on them, I just hope he didn't bite down. Mods removed the linky.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 12:55
  #10235 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
State TV admiting failures in activating reserves earlier and expecting more to be called up.



https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...88185548111882
They opine that a force ratio of 1:1 is enough to start a counter offensive with green troops. That should be fun.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 13:12
  #10236 (permalink)  
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Here is a cunning idea, we keep seeing liberated villages with Ukrainians hanging up flags at the town signs, what they need to do is have a bunch of fake signs manufactured for towns behind the Russian front lines and then put them up on social media showing the" liberation" of the fake signs.... Russia will not know what is going on or who is where and what is behind them causing panic and withdrawls..
Reportedly UKR SF are already doing it for real behind enemy lines so that geolocation and metadata shows it to be the real location…..

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Old 7th Oct 2022, 13:21
  #10237 (permalink)  
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Girkin and his bunch of sad f***s: "If the Svatove-Kreminna are taken, we are screwed"; says Russians have no infantry in the area, and Ukrainians might soon throw them back to 24 February lines.
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 13:26
  #10238 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Here is a cunning idea, we keep seeing liberated villages with Ukrainians hanging up flags at the town signs, what they need to do is have a bunch of fake signs manufactured for towns behind the Russian front lines and then put them up on social media showing the" liberation" of the fake signs.... Russia will not know what is going on or who is where and what is behind them causing panic and withdrawls..
There were already reports a few weeks back of Ukrainian patrols moving deep into the flanks/rear of Russian troops and raising Ukrainian flags in order to panic the Russians into thinking they'd been surrounded.

(Sorry ORAC, just noticed your post)
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 13:36
  #10239 (permalink)  
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Russia tried to order 200,000 bulletproof vests and 500,000 sets of winter clothes through third countries, but was refused by Turkey, - Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov
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Old 7th Oct 2022, 13:52
  #10240 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps the Ukrainians can repair and repurpose one of the Iranian drones to deliver a “Happy Belated Birthday” gag gift at Putrid’s mansion on the Black Sea.
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