Originally Posted by
peter we
Ukrainians have clarified that they were referring to sanctions not nuclear strikes.
To be "certain" that a TNW is about to be used is not possible until one is in flight ..... any officer in the chain could refuse to launch. It has happened before.
History is littered with apparently rational decisions based on poor int. For example:
The continuation of Passchendaele
The location of Arnhem dro[p
Gulf War II.
Pre-emptive might just be legal [as if that mattered afterwards] if a country party to the war were to be involved. Pre-emptive by that party, not some interested outsider like NATO.
I acknowledge that the Ukr war has become a proxy war but NATO or "the West" is not party.
In my opinion the correct way to go is massive conventional aid to Ukraine after a TNW, and limited to the annexed territories. That way Ukr gets its land back, badly dented, its decimated [i.e. losing 1 in 10] population back, and Russia retreats into its self-created stone age for a generation.
Further escalation would be by Russia, and would invite Armageddon of course.
This is not a Hollywood epic.