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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd Oct 2022, 16:09
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Gazprom believe they can get Nordstream 2 working.

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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 16:37
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How convenient that the pipeline they think they can get working is the one that Germany are currently refusing to certify.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 16:44
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"Pressure has stabilized" - at the ambient pressure found on the seabed in that part of town
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 17:49
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#Ukraine: The UK🇬🇧 supplied Wolfhound TSV is also used as armoured recovery vehicle by the AFU; this time pulling a captured Russian BTR-82A back from the front lines in the South.

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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 18:49
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Someone made a pension plan by stealing 1.5 MILLION WINTER UNIFORMS. You really couldn't make this up. It is going to be one cold winter for the russkies, mobik or not.

GREAT!



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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 19:03
  #10026 (permalink)  
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A Russian attack in Donbas ended in total fiasco. Several MBTs and IFVs were destroyed by Ukrainian ATGM teams. The remnants of the Russian attack forces were fleeing.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 19:05
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Girkin claims Russian authorities have ordered Svatove to evacuate within 72hÖ
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 19:24
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Over 4,000 Norwegian Soldiers have reportedly received orders to be deployed to Strategically Important Locations throughout Norway and the North Sea, the Norwegian Government has said this number may increase alongside the Defensive needs of the Country.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 19:40
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This is the first coherent Russian description of AFU's light motorized forces playing Cossack in the Russian rear areas.

Please carefully note these forces are using small UAV's to dominate the Russian rear area battle space.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 19:57
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Russian source on Kherson(Unconfirmed) "Dudchany, Barislavsky district, Kherson region, Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied the settlement."

One commenter remarks that this would be a gain of 40km in 24 hrs.


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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 20:03
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Ctrl-alt-defeat from one of Russia's most gung-ho mercenary channelsÖ.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 20:31
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Originally Posted by ORAC
A Russian attack in Donbas ended in total fiasco. Several MBTs and IFVs were destroyed by Ukrainian ATGM teams. The remnants of the Russian attack forces were fleeing.
Seeing this through the small lens of social media is always going to give a distorted view however these combats seem to show individual, small, isolated units being picked off at will.
It's a s if the Russians have absolutely no idea what they are actually doing? That seems to suggest a total breakdown in command and orders. The Ukrainians appear to be dominating the battlefield and have air superiority, at least with drones.
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 20:37
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"Russian channel indicates that Ukraine is employing effective EW in the Kherson region which is causing havoc with their communications. Units are forced to retreat with no support or radio communications. A full retreat to Berislav in the next few days is expected."

"
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Old 3rd Oct 2022, 23:05
  #10034 (permalink)  
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Russian channel indicates that Ukraine is employing effective EW in the Kherson region which is causing havoc with their communications.
UKR have the advantage they are using secure, frequency hopping, EW resistant NATO radios whilst most Russian troops, if they have radios, are using cheap Chinese fixed frequency sets.

All the6 need is a few old fashioned sweep or barrage jammers and the Russian troops are back to semaphore or carrier pigeons.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 00:22
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...they'd probably just eat them
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 05:31
  #10036 (permalink)  
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NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily

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Old 4th Oct 2022, 06:43
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Originally Posted by ORAC
NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily
A worrisome report at first, then you read that the train is seen to carry the BPM-97 armoured personnel carriers (APCs). These are also used as boarder guard vehicles.
Potentially being used as a highly mobile counter attack unit to plug the gaps.
The land still under Russian Control is huge, they have the potential to create a defensive line in depth, with a mobile counter attack echelon.
They will still suffer from poor comms and poor control, however going back to basics and waiting for the bad weather is a tactic that can be used to great effect to stifle the Ukrainian moral and start grinding out a resolution.

This is why I feel Ukraine will keep their feet on the Russian collective throat to stop the formation of a defensive line in depth.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 07:54
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Looks like an overrun into the dunes. Two plumes of smoke back up towards the threshold might be ejections

IG
Seeing reports elsewhere that this was indeed an over run, and was a Mig-31 that crashed on take-off, or aborted a take-off....reports indicating pilot died.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 09:48
  #10039 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily
Russia doing its best to look like its about to use a nuke, without actually ever using a nuke.

Edited to add: Any test "near the Ukrainian border" would surely have to be in Russia itself (unless Putin could persuade Lukashenko to host it, finally do something useful...)? It really would be peak Russia if they did this i.e. nuke themselves to demonstrate their willingness to use a nuke!

Last edited by dead_pan; 4th Oct 2022 at 10:19.
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Old 4th Oct 2022, 10:30
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Russia doing its best to look like its about to use a nuke, without actually ever using a nuke.

Edited to add: Any test "near the Ukrainian border" would surely have to be in Russia itself (unless Putin could persuade Lukashenko to host it, finally do something useful...)? It really would be peak Russia if they did this i.e. nuke themselves to demonstrate their willingness to use a nuke!
Didn't the US test their Nukes in Nevada?
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