Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Originally Posted by ORAC
I’m aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.
One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.
The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.
One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.
The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.
Here we have the Crimea, where Russia spent a lot of blood in the 1850s and the 1940s, reassigned to the Ukraine by Khrushchev, a native Ukrainian, while all were part of the USSR in the 1950s.
Then we have collapse of the USSR and the rise of the CIS, then the Maidan revolt spnsored by Ms Victoria ( F*** the EU) Nuland, at a cost of $5B according to some intercepts of her discussions.
Later the Ukrainian leader Ms. Tymoshenko was recorded stating that she would like to get rid of her Russian minority(30% of the people).and chose to outlaw Russian language teaching in elementary schools.
The Donbass revolt soon followed, plus the popular vote for returning the Crimea to Russia.
So now we have a civil war, in an artificial country ruled by a deeply corrupt elite held hostage to foreign paymasters, with one side supported by another country also ruled by a deeply corrupt elite, albeit with local roots.
A happy playground for the various spooks and influence peddlers, at the expense of the people trying to survive there.
In retrospect, perhaps we should bring back the Hapsburgs, they were a lot less bloody minded and no more incompetent.
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The art of civil discourse is long lost.
One part that is missing here, is that Ukraine has been speaking of and planning their spring offensive on Donbas for several months and have been actively moving their military units into position. Which is in contravention of the Minsk agreements and add to this more belligerent words of retaking Crimea by force. This puts us squarely where we are now, a military response from Russia.
This response is now being used by the west to paint Ukraine as the victim, instead of the instigator.
If Ukraine had delivered on their requirements under the Minsk agreements, we would not have the current situation. Peace would reign in the region and people could get back to living normally.
One part that is missing here, is that Ukraine has been speaking of and planning their spring offensive on Donbas for several months and have been actively moving their military units into position. Which is in contravention of the Minsk agreements and add to this more belligerent words of retaking Crimea by force. This puts us squarely where we are now, a military response from Russia.
This response is now being used by the west to paint Ukraine as the victim, instead of the instigator.
If Ukraine had delivered on their requirements under the Minsk agreements, we would not have the current situation. Peace would reign in the region and people could get back to living normally.
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Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the stand off between Russia and Ukraine, they would be crazy to start a fight they are going to loose. Biden might have family contacts there, getting involved in Russia’s backyard is a really bad idea, Putin might be loosing popularity, defending National interests will put him right back at the top of the polls.
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Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.
As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
We will see who takes major military action first.
I say major because the situation in Eastern Ukraine is so murky that a casus bellum is far to easy to create and claim.
I say major because the situation in Eastern Ukraine is so murky that a casus bellum is far to easy to create and claim.
Nothing murky about using artillery against civilians.
Cutting the water off .
Cutting the power off .
If NATO used those tactics in Afghanistan they would have been home in three months , instead of playing at sitting ducks for almost two decades .
Cutting the water off .
Cutting the power off .
If NATO used those tactics in Afghanistan they would have been home in three months , instead of playing at sitting ducks for almost two decades .
Originally Posted by Aegis8
Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.
As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
FB
I'm impressed that PPRuNe deemed important enough to suddenly have a number of new pro-Russian posters turn up all of a sudden - I exempt racedo & etdudiant who have been on here for years
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Originally Posted by racedo
Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.
As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.
As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.
I would love to see Russia’s opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.
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Originally Posted by highflyer40
Of course they don’t. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.
I would love to see Russia’s opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.
I would love to see Russia’s opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.
You will find that the Donbas regions initially wanted autonomy form Kiev, but still to be part of Ukraine. Now with the history of Kiev stalling, not implementing the Minsk agreements and war looming again, they are proclaiming more loudly to become part of Russia. Which will not happen.
This needs to be resolved by Kiev coming to the party and doing what they signed up to do.
Originally Posted by Gulfstreamaviator
Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.
see FR feeds.
In Europe the only major 'local' nation state threat is Russia, so its wholly unsurprising all our airborne surveillance assets are sent this way.
Originally Posted by racedo
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.
On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?
Originally Posted by aw ditor
Casus belli ?
Probably the same corrupt people that sold the old Soviet aircraft carrier , and rocket technology to Iran and North Korea .
We all know what happened to the Arms dealer trying to sell the stolen nukes , he was given a nuclear death .
Maybe the Land thieves who sold the old Soviet farms to foreign investors will wage war to avoid court .
Not the first time illegal land sales have been the cause of war . There are stories in the Old Testament about fields being sold off .
Originally Posted by dead_pan
Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.
On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?
On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?
Seceding from a government that wants to get rid of you does not seem illegitimate to me.
More generally, it is dubious I think to make a big 'international law' argument, the Soviet Union shifted internal boundaries quite arbitrarily, so they are not necessarily sensible.
We've seen from the Yugoslavia experience how desperately ugly rationalizing the mess can become, even in a small patch. The Ukraine is big, a much larger mess looms.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...plode-23879639
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'
The Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into all-out war within days after Moscow amassed close to 100,000 troops at the flashpoint border, it was feared last night.
Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.
Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May. But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.
Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”......
More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises......
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'
The Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into all-out war within days after Moscow amassed close to 100,000 troops at the flashpoint border, it was feared last night.
Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.
Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May. But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.
Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”......
More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises......
