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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Sep 2022, 12:23
  #9001 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
Unless they officially signed up to be a contracted member of the russian army or part of the russian government they would fall under the same catagory as mercenaries. Mercs dont have any protection under the geneva convention.

LDR / DPR are not recognised by the UN
maybe


Protocol I Additional to the Geneva Conventions relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflict (1977), article 47


Article 47 of Additional Protocol I provides a definition of a mercenary.

"A mercenary is any person who:
  1. Is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
  2. Does, in fact, take a direct part in hostilities;
  3. Is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
  4. Is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
  5. Is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
  6. Has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.
These requirements are cumulative, which means that they must all be applicable for an individual to be categorized as a mercenary."
Most DPR and LPR conscripts would be combatants and should be treated with all the protections of the Geneva Convention. Prisoners of war are explicitly covered by the Third Geneva Convention, 1949 replacing the Prisoners of War Convention of 1929. Both Ukraine and Russia are signatories, Ukraine has generally honored it's commitments to date, Russia however has breached the Geneva Convention on many occasions, in fact, generally they appear intent on breaching their obligations at every opportunity, to combatants - humiliation, failure to provide care to wounded, torture, deliberate mutilation and execution; civilians - forced migration, destruction and theft of private property, murder, rape, conscription to a combatant force... etc...

Common article 3 of the Geneva Conventions (1949)

According to this article, in any conflict, whether of international or non-international character, "persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria."
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 12:36
  #9002 (permalink)  
 
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Donetsk airport might have been captured by ukrainian forces

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Old 10th Sep 2022, 13:39
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The very best thing NATO could do now would be to take those prisoners to W Europe and treat them lavishly - yes, lavishly with Western food, medicines, accommodation and kindness.
The benefit of tens of thousands returning to Russia with that story would be worth ten dollars to the cent in terms of cost to us.
An utterly unique opportunity to gain an immeassurable moral and political victory over Russia.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 14:06
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Judging by the way they are treated, normal conditions would appear lavish to them.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 14:23
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meleager, I believe the problem we are dealing with is deeply cross cultural. The Russian mind and psyche was not brought up with the concept of Aristotelian logic which, even if in a European society most people have never heard of it, they are mentally governed by it. Just as a brutalised dog will take a year to trust the concept of " do this right, you get food" so many societies have no basic concept of logic,. If this, then that. If not this then not that.

Non logical societies and cultures in my experience will not associate generosity with kindness, simply suspicion. If you show kindness you are weak, if you show brutality you will be followed with grudging respect.

Let us stick to the Geneva Convention without frills.

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Old 10th Sep 2022, 14:24
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As far as I am aware the ORDLO prisoners are being treated, quite rightly so, as Ukraine citizens since DPR\LNR are not recognised internationally. Mainly they are being charged under 4 articles of the Ukraine criminal code and sentenced to 10-15 years in jail. Many of Zolkin's interviews talk about this and the specific criminal articles that they were charged with.
However the Ukrainians are still doing prisoner swaps of them to get their own soldiers back
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 14:53
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Th problem with the DPR/ LNR prisoners are a lot may well be those forced to join by the Russians through kidnapping etc as well as those blackmailed to get family members released. They are not hardened DPR/LNR fanatics who volunteered and believed in the cause, it’s the separating out of those people and the returning home of the “innocent” that will be the problem.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 14:57
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Usual caveats apply.

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Old 10th Sep 2022, 15:08
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Screenshot this time (military aviation content)


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Old 10th Sep 2022, 15:22
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How to run away with out actually saying that.

The Russian MoD has finally acknowledged that something is up "In order to achieve the declared aims of the special military op to liberate Donbas, a decision has been made to regroup the troops in the Balakliya and Izyum areas in order to boost efforts in the Donetsk area"
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 15:29
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 15:30
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Hell, the (road) distance from Balakliya to Lysychansk is 170 km.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 15:37
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What happens if the Ukes are in Lysychansk and start pushing towards Luhansk?
From memory this was one of the breakaway regions.
Its fantastic to be even having these thoughts, however will the local populace be happy and see them as liberators or conquerors?
Hopefully those in the latter group will bugger of the Russia and the Ukrainians can switch efforts to taking back Crimea.
Slava Ukraini

Edited to add that on Times Radio this evening they are saying the Russians have pulled out of Izium and have pulled back across the border into Belgorod. (Information coming from Telegram), if true this would support Wokkafans Twitter post that the Ukes are now in Vovchansk, an epic milestone.

Last edited by Spunky Monkey; 10th Sep 2022 at 17:55.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 17:51
  #9014 (permalink)  
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This is what is known as a "Lanchester Square collapse" in progress.

Western Senior Policy people need to be thinking seriously about a Russian Federation collapse sequence, like Imperial Russia's 1917 performance, in the very short term. It is now a serious possibility.

Early reports of Russian Armed Forces abandoning Vovchans'k, the border city in Kharkiv Oblast. As a reminder, it has been reported that Ukraine is actively moving towards Velykyi Burluk.


“As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout…This is not unusual in war.” Another fine essay on the rapidly changing situation in #Ukraine, from @LawDavF

https://samf.substack.com/p/gradually-then-suddenly


When I wrote about the battle for the Donbas, I thought that relative losses would likely be more important than territorial gains. I think Russia's gains in the Donbas were likely a Pyrrhic victory because they took heavy losses they couldn't afford, which is evident now.
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:02
  #9015 (permalink)  
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Meanwhile the noose is tightening on the Kherson pocket. As they read the news from Kharkiv at what point will their will to fight on collapse?



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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:05
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Things are happening now at a rate that no one keeps up with. There are rumours in twitter and telegram of the entire Kharkive front collapsing, Russian troops leaving the area any way they can, no one in command, etc.
This'll be very interesting 48 hours ahead.


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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:15
  #9017 (permalink)  
 
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The whole front appears to be in danger of collapse. Incredible stuff
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:34
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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:46
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Mil aviation for a change.

The capability to adapt is the most astonishing feat of Ukrainian military. They've received all sorts of kits from around the world from 1960's AA guns to AGM-88's, from Gepards to HIMARS. They just adapt themselves and adapt the different technologies into their existing systems and make everything work seamlessly. Astonishing, really.

They have no issues using old soviet stuff like here on su-25 and at the same time they have western goods hanging from Migs.




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Old 10th Sep 2022, 18:46
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
The very best thing NATO could do now would be to take those prisoners to W Europe and treat them lavishly - yes, lavishly with Western food, medicines, accommodation and kindness.
The benefit of tens of thousands returning to Russia with that story would be worth ten dollars to the cent in terms of cost to us.
An utterly unique opportunity to gain an immeassurable moral and political victory over Russia.
Perhaps. But recall how Stalin treated many returning Great Patriotic War (WW2) POWs - as "traitors and collaborators" for having failed to fight to the death, and as "contaminated" by exposure to the West.

Whether Putin will do the same, each of us must guess for ourselves.
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