Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The Soviet and Ukraine shells were analog.the polish guidance system is digital, the body of the shell and mechanical parts were Ukrainian. Its not GPS but laser guidance is better if you have a drone, human.to hit moving targets.
Find info on this is difficult, but these shells were a fraction the price of US laser guided shells and <10% of Excalibur.
Too expensive for Ukraine at the time, however.
Find info on this is difficult, but these shells were a fraction the price of US laser guided shells and <10% of Excalibur.
Too expensive for Ukraine at the time, however.
https://mspo.defence24.pl/na-ladzie/...sko-w-kielcach
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The advance continues. The attacks on Izyum itself shows where they are headed - or at least intending to it of in a pocket and to cut all the GLOC for the Donetsk front northern flank.
Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.
Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.
Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.
Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Ukrainians have achieved a tactical break-in and have opened a breach.
It appears Russia currently doesn't have either the ground maneuver unit reserves or artillery fires to respond locally and seal this breach in the Russian forward defenses.
It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian military has enough local mobile forces to make this into an operational scale breakthrough offensive that cuts the Russian ground lines of communications to Izyum.
The only rapidly available tool for the Russians appears to be airpower.
The Russians have to commit the VKS in a big way to slow this Ukrainian break-in down and helicopter lift infantry blocking forces in front of the Ukrainians to save their logistical position at Izyum.
People should expect to hear about Russian claims of successful air strikes & Ukrainian claims of VKS jets and helicopters shot down in the next 48 hours….
It appears Russia currently doesn't have either the ground maneuver unit reserves or artillery fires to respond locally and seal this breach in the Russian forward defenses.
It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian military has enough local mobile forces to make this into an operational scale breakthrough offensive that cuts the Russian ground lines of communications to Izyum.
The only rapidly available tool for the Russians appears to be airpower.
The Russians have to commit the VKS in a big way to slow this Ukrainian break-in down and helicopter lift infantry blocking forces in front of the Ukrainians to save their logistical position at Izyum.
People should expect to hear about Russian claims of successful air strikes & Ukrainian claims of VKS jets and helicopters shot down in the next 48 hours….
Intriguing tweet by Ukraine MoD.
wonder what are they up to now, taking down the Kerch bridge?
wonder what are they up to now, taking down the Kerch bridge?
The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea. It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk. BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1567526011041988609
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1567526011041988609
Heat signatures dropping in Russ-occupied Ukraine? Meaning?
Quote: “Heat data from Ukraine suggests Russia could be running low on ammunition.”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/ataglance/2220/
Quote: “Heat data from Ukraine suggests Russia could be running low on ammunition.”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/ataglance/2220/
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So much for the fabled Russian officers, it appears they legged it and left their Lt Colonel behind.
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Russian troops in Kharkiv are finding the going rough…rough rough. 
Not going well for the Russians crossing the Dnipro River. Contains images of injuries.
Extended clip: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
Extended clip: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
Last edited by Wokkafans; 7th Sep 2022 at 19:59.
Being an aviation forum what's the general consensus on this?
A. A Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a Russian SU-25 using a AAM (the white streak emerging from the right hand side of the clip at ~ 5 sec before the MiG-29 comes into view).
or
B. A MANPAD taking out the SU-25.
The Russians have acknowledged the loss of the aircraft and have stated the pilot survived.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
A. A Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a Russian SU-25 using a AAM (the white streak emerging from the right hand side of the clip at ~ 5 sec before the MiG-29 comes into view).
or
B. A MANPAD taking out the SU-25.
The Russians have acknowledged the loss of the aircraft and have stated the pilot survived.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
Last edited by Wokkafans; 7th Sep 2022 at 20:06.
Being an aviation forum what's the general consensus on this?
A. A Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a Russian SU-25 using a AAM (the white streak emerging from the right hand side of the clip at ~ 5 sec before the MiG-29 comes into view).
or
B. A MANPAD taking out the SU-25.
The Russians have acknowledged the loss of the aircraft and have stated the pilot survived.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
A. A Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a Russian SU-25 using a AAM (the white streak emerging from the right hand side of the clip at ~ 5 sec before the MiG-29 comes into view).
or
B. A MANPAD taking out the SU-25.
The Russians have acknowledged the loss of the aircraft and have stated the pilot survived.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
THIS IS WHAT VICTORY LOOKS LIKE: Aldin @tinso_ww posts this video of UKR motor rifle troops advancing in the Balakliya area.…
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thanks to @John_A_Ridge for showing me this. The MSTA-B is one of Russia’s newest howitzers and BM-21s have a 40km+ range. If Ukraine is capturing these pieces mostly intact, it’s means Ukraine has penetrated 20-30km behind Russia lines in Kharkiv at this point...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Was just talking with a NATO officer about the Russian Army and asked him how long it would take the Finnish Army to seize St Petersburg.
He said, ‘not long, only problem they’d face is that the Poles would get there first”
He said, ‘not long, only problem they’d face is that the Poles would get there first”
Last edited by ORAC; 7th Sep 2022 at 22:52.
Crossing water obstacles continues to be difficult for military operations, and while the recipients on this day are Russian forces (conscripts, press-ganged or other security forces) at some point in the future it will be the Ukrainian turn to attempt the same activity in order to recover their sovereign territory. The only saving grace will be if the deficiencies in Russian equipment and training become a factor, while expanding means to attrite Russian arty continues. To make that happen, Ukraine still needs to interdict the MSR of the Russians, there being a number of rail lines, rail bridges and other choke points that would pose a logistical problem to the Russian engineering corps to recover.
The Kerch bridge continues to be a rational target, it is on Ukrainian territory, occupied illegally by Russia, and being used to support a criminal enterprise schemed up by Putin and the lapdogs of the Duma.
Intermittent follow up attacks on the road bridge at the east end of the Novo Kharkova dam, over the lock canal would disincentivize attempts to develop resupply by that route. Just once in a while.
The Russian Ministry of Finance payouts for Russian troop KIA's may be accurate or as suggested could be another grift by management while getting ready for their retirement. The numbers involved are so close to the Ukrainian estimates that it is troubling. Taking the Ukrainian values and profiting from those while also burying the evidence of high level corruption seems like an attractive option for the cynical management-I-C of Russian forces. It is akin to the stocktake corrections that follow a Class A mishap, where the mishap F-16 or other ride is the basis for writing off the missing tools, chairs, computers, trucks, PEDs etc, SEQ and other paraphernalia that are accountable items. If the RuZZian MOF is actually telling the truth, then that should be seen as an imminent collapse of the RF in the field, the UF figures would suggest 1:3 fatality:combat injury ratios, and that would match or exceed the original force applied to start the show on 24th Feb.
The RF seem to be supported to about the same extent as Napoleon was on 19 October 1812. Some of the LPR/DNR arms seem to come from that period, some of the RF ratpacks are not much more recent. If unprepared for Lt Gen Winter, a collapse of the RF in the field may be not far off. The incentive for the conscripts seems to be free Ladas for their surviving families, so long as Putin keeps his word. The same words that said conscripts would not end up sitting in trucks in Ukraine as targets for RPGs and ATWs. Average temp in Kherson in Nov overnight is below zero (degrees C)... October will bring occasional freezes that will incapacitate those inadequately prepared for the cold wx ops. Within 50 days from now the RF will be desirous of better management from their quartermasters. Ukraine has a number of specific routes that the RF rely on for resupply, some are rather attractive, they can annoy the train sets considerably. It's not likely that conscripts, convicts on parole, and vagrants from Russian cities which is the recruitment target of RF at present will be overly impressed with the 22 Dec 44 response by Gen McAulliffe:
The Division Operations Officer, Lt. Col. Harry Kinnard recalled that McAulliffe initially asked, "They want to surrender?" Moore told him, "No sir, they want us to surrender." McAulliffe arose and erupted in anger, which shocked those looking on. He took the paper, looked at it, said "Us surrender, aw nuts!" and dropped it on the floor. Maj. Jones was dismissed. McAulliffe then left the Headquarters to go congratulate a unit on the Western perimeter that had successfully taken out a German road block earlier that morning.
When Jones left the Headquarters, he went back to the F Company Command Post and spoke with the two German officers. When he returned to his Regimental Headquarters, he phoned the division headquarters.
Upon returning to the division headquarters, McAulliffe was informed that Jones had phoned to say that the two German officers were still waiting at the F Company Command Post. Since they brought a formal demand they felt they were entitled to a formal reply and they were to return to the German lines two hours after delivering their message.
McAulliffe asked that Col. Harper be summoned to the Division Headquarters. Harper, who was still inspecting his units' positions, was contacted by radio.
When Harper arrived at the Headquarters, he was asked to wait outside of the closed door to McAulliffe's quarters. Inside, in the presence of his staff, McAulliffe wondered aloud, "Well, I don't know what to tell them." At that point, Kinnard said, "What you said initially would be hard to beat." McAulliffe asked "What do you mean?" Kinnard, said, "Sir, you said nuts." All members of the staff enthusiastically agreed, so McAulliffe wrote it down on a message pad and said, "Have it typed up."
The reply was typed up, centered on a full sheet of paper. It read:
"December 22, 1944
To the German Commander,
N U T S !
The American Commander"
When Jones left the Headquarters, he went back to the F Company Command Post and spoke with the two German officers. When he returned to his Regimental Headquarters, he phoned the division headquarters.
Upon returning to the division headquarters, McAulliffe was informed that Jones had phoned to say that the two German officers were still waiting at the F Company Command Post. Since they brought a formal demand they felt they were entitled to a formal reply and they were to return to the German lines two hours after delivering their message.
McAulliffe asked that Col. Harper be summoned to the Division Headquarters. Harper, who was still inspecting his units' positions, was contacted by radio.
When Harper arrived at the Headquarters, he was asked to wait outside of the closed door to McAulliffe's quarters. Inside, in the presence of his staff, McAulliffe wondered aloud, "Well, I don't know what to tell them." At that point, Kinnard said, "What you said initially would be hard to beat." McAulliffe asked "What do you mean?" Kinnard, said, "Sir, you said nuts." All members of the staff enthusiastically agreed, so McAulliffe wrote it down on a message pad and said, "Have it typed up."
The reply was typed up, centered on a full sheet of paper. It read:
"December 22, 1944
To the German Commander,
N U T S !
The American Commander"
One thing is becoming more likely, that the RF have a clock running, and relying on winter being their saviour is taking the wrong message from Moscow, 1812 & 1941. This time round, it is the RF that are on the end of the hook of MSR issues, not the other team. The collapse when it comes will be fast and predictably unexpected, yet revisionist history will suggest it was inevitable. It is, but it is a high probability outcome here and now, prior to the event.
1. Roll on winter.
2. The West; lets get arctic gear rolling to the UF ASAP. the situation turns in 24 hours when unprepared.
3. The civilian population are looking towards a humanitarian disaster. UN; this is foreseeable, and preventable. Are we prepared to save the Ukrainian civilians in the Donbas, and Crimea following a rout of the RF which is not a surprise possibility?
4. The UN needs to be ready with humanitarian aid for the civilians, and to assist the former RF conscripts as they collapse in place and become a responsibility for Ukraine to care for under the Geneva Convention, assuming that the farcical "Special" term is placed in the dumpster of history along with Putin and his cronies.
5. [WARNING: AVIATION CONTENT] The West and other countries with a humanitarian policy need to start planning for the Berlin Airlift of our times, to avoid a disaster of historical proportions on the doorstep of Europe. It's time to start the planning, per 5-P's.
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thanks, fdr, another great post. May all our dreams come true as the situation unfolds. I just worry constantly about Putin’s next [ultimate?] stupidity.
I'm hoping a praying that - should Putin decide if he's going down, he's going to take the world down with him (not an unlikely scenario IMHO) - that there is someone in the Russian chain of command who has the stones to just say NO! and stop the madness.
As we all are. fdr, thank you for your thoughtful and enlightening posts. In a private message to me you explained your connection and understanding as to what is going on. Thank you for that and please continue to educate us re Russian history and actions. It almost seems that we are spiraling towards a useless and unnecessary conclusion. I hope this is not the case. One man's ego should not decide the future of the human race.
The Russian Ministry of Finance payouts for Russian troop KIA's may be accurate or as suggested could be another grift by management while getting ready for their retirement. The numbers involved are so close to the Ukrainian estimates that it is troubling. Taking the Ukrainian values and profiting from those while also burying the evidence of high level corruption seems like an attractive option for the cynical management-I-C of Russian forces. It is akin to the stocktake corrections that follow a Class A mishap, where the mishap F-16 or other ride is the basis for writing off the missing tools, chairs, computers, trucks, PEDs etc, SEQ and other paraphernalia that are accountable items. If the RuZZian MOF is actually telling the truth, then that should be seen as an imminent collapse of the RF in the field, the UF figures would suggest 1:3 fatality:combat injury ratios, and that would match or exceed the original force applied to start the show on 24th Feb.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
General Mick Ryan:
“Notwithstanding operational security needs (and possibly some deception) this is a superb example of a strategic assessment from the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.”….
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...rspective.html
Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023: Ukraine’s perspective
“Notwithstanding operational security needs (and possibly some deception) this is a superb example of a strategic assessment from the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.”….
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...rspective.html
Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023: Ukraine’s perspective