Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Strange, Russia does not seem to realise that China is its key strategic rival. Instead they are fixated on some Cold War retro westward view.
If Russia burns all it's bridges to the west life for China will be made even easier.
If Russia burns all it's bridges to the west life for China will be made even easier.
Last edited by Less Hair; 6th Feb 2022 at 10:40.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
White House saying Russia could invade Ukraine within the next few days - meanwhile the DoD not being optimistic about Ukraine’s chances…
https://www.mediaite.com/news/gen-ma...thin-72-hours/
Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly told lawmakers during closed-door briefings this week that if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine takes place, then Kyiv could fall within 72 hours.
Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich reported Saturdaoy that multiple congressional sources told her that Milley also warned that a full-scale invasion could cause “4,000 Russian troop deaths and 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths.”
https://www.mediaite.com/news/gen-ma...thin-72-hours/
Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly told lawmakers during closed-door briefings this week that if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine takes place, then Kyiv could fall within 72 hours.
Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich reported Saturdaoy that multiple congressional sources told her that Milley also warned that a full-scale invasion could cause “4,000 Russian troop deaths and 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths.”
Bombing Kiev is one thing but permanently seizing is a whole different beast.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
It’s only about 90 miles from Kiev to the Belarus border, most of the army will be in the east facing Russia.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...vasion-ukraine
Northern Route
Russia could advance toward Kiev along two routes. The first would be 150 miles by road through Novye Yurkovichi, Russia; Chernihiv, Ukraine; and into Kiev, Ukraine. The second would be a 200-mile thrust through Troebortnoe, Russia; Konotop, Ukraine; Nizhyn, Ukraine; and into Kiev.6
If Minsk were to acquiesce to the use of its road and rail networks, the Russian army could outflank Ukrainian defenses around Kiev and approach them from the rear via a 150-mile axis of advance from Mazur, Belarus, to Korosten, Ukraine, and finally to Kiev.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...vasion-ukraine
Northern Route
Russia could advance toward Kiev along two routes. The first would be 150 miles by road through Novye Yurkovichi, Russia; Chernihiv, Ukraine; and into Kiev, Ukraine. The second would be a 200-mile thrust through Troebortnoe, Russia; Konotop, Ukraine; Nizhyn, Ukraine; and into Kiev.6
If Minsk were to acquiesce to the use of its road and rail networks, the Russian army could outflank Ukrainian defenses around Kiev and approach them from the rear via a 150-mile axis of advance from Mazur, Belarus, to Korosten, Ukraine, and finally to Kiev.
Last edited by ORAC; 7th Feb 2022 at 08:44.
If Minsk were to acquiesce to the use of its road and rail networks, the Russian army could outflank Ukrainian defenses around Kiev and approach them from the rear via a 150-mile axis of advance from Mazur, Belarus, to Korosten, Ukraine, and finally to Kiev.
Not impossible, but not exactly easy either.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Taking Kharkiv would be an apparently minor incursion, potentially even deniable, yet would make continued Ukrainian defence of the Donetsk-Luhansk area impracticable.
Amphibious landings in the Odessa area would create a link to Transnistria ('invited by the patriots of') and have the dual effect of cutting Ukraine off from the coast, and gaining more leverage over Moldova (who are currently west-inclined).
The do-nothing action has already done something, i.e. gained full control over Belarus.
A direct thrust for Kiev is not necessarily the objective.
Amphibious landings in the Odessa area would create a link to Transnistria ('invited by the patriots of') and have the dual effect of cutting Ukraine off from the coast, and gaining more leverage over Moldova (who are currently west-inclined).
The do-nothing action has already done something, i.e. gained full control over Belarus.
A direct thrust for Kiev is not necessarily the objective.
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Would a direct thrust to Kiev not be very costly with the amount of anti armour weaponary now at their disposal, I would imagine they also have plans in place to slow the advance to a crawl by denying the road routes.
Just precautionary measure to ensure Vlad' doesn't do something stupid regarding NATO territory.
I wouldn't be surprised if the US doesn't move in other stuff - at the very least it will be an invaluable opportunity to test their kit in a contested EW environment, given reports of Russia moving their specialist equipment into Belarus etc.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
There's plenty of things flying around the borders that show on ADS-B, let alone the things that don't show. The media just isn't very good at spotting them.
Admiral Ustinov will be joing Varyag in the med, cant confirm it myself but other sources are saying that russia has told turkey about movements through the straights the 6 landing ships, 2 frigates and 3 kilo transiting into black sea between 6 and 15th and moskva transiting to med on the 15th
And now for something completely different ;
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kel...es-already-won
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kel...es-already-won
Kelly McParland: Why would Putin invade Ukraine when he's already won?
He’s already succeeded in humiliating his Western counterparts and Moscow is once again being taken seriously as a world power.