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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 13th Aug 2022, 23:37
  #7961 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
OK. Ukrainian and English?
Their own choice, but not German.
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Old 13th Aug 2022, 23:56
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I would add the militias of the breakaway republics would lay down their arms and Russia would withdraw from Sevastopol.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 02:34
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Contrary to Russian [and other] beliefs, even the warmest of Ukraine's supporters in this Just War have little leverage in demanding negotiations.
Ukraine decided to fight alone, and Ukraine alone will decide when enough is enough.
The Ukrainians have every reason to fight to the bitter end.
God speed.
That is not so in terms of money or material, even if Ukraine has the will..
Ukraine is financially on life support, technically in default, although the creditors have granted a two year repayment delay ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ok-debt-delay )
Likewise, Ukraine depends on outside supporters for its arms.
So they have as much freedom as their military and financial supporters provide.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 04:00
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Which is still more than Russia who are in actual default. The rest of the world will help Ukraine rebuild, Russia not so.
And let’s face it, Ukraine is ONLY in this position because Russia invaded, prior to that they were starting to grow.

You just don’t get the west and the freedoms it gives you, do you.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 04:56
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Which is still more than Russia who are in actual default. The rest of the world will help Ukraine rebuild, Russia not so.
And let’s face it, Ukraine is ONLY in this position because Russia invaded, prior to that they were starting to grow.
And stole billions in airliners which are now valueless and in the end they are going to have to pay for one way or the other
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 07:40
  #7966 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by etudiant
That is not so in terms of money or material, even if Ukraine has the will..
Ukraine is financially on life support, technically in default, although the creditors have granted a two year repayment delay ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ok-debt-delay )
Likewise, Ukraine depends on outside supporters for its arms.
So they have as much freedom as their military and financial supporters provide.
Here's the thing; Ukraine has friends and supporters. They support Ukraine as Ukraine was the victim of a mugging by a thug called Russia. The thug has conducted genocide, and murder, executions of civilians. Ukraine has friends, and while governments may vacillate, friends don't let down friends. Russia's despot has to be offered assistance from the most dysfunctional state on the 3rd rock. Lie down with dogs, get fleas. Russia's friends are.... Eritrea? North Korea.... ? yup class acts. Russia had an opportunity to be a vibrant member of Europe, and elected to kick sand in the skinny kids faces.

Russia's current economy is smaller than Belgium's. and they are famous for chocolates. Russia is famous for making a ruckus in the kitty litter and breaching treaties.

My question to you etudiant is, why are you not helping a country that has been attacked by a genocidal aggressor?

For an aviation flavor.... The USSR has managed to kill the same number of people as if you shot down a B747-200 with 269 people on it every day for 75 years. That is how murderous the history of the glorious workers paradise has been.
Good for undertakers.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 08:03
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Antonovsky bridge took another major pummelling last night including secondary explosions from equipment/armament on the bridge itself - they’re not going to fix that overnight…

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Old 14th Aug 2022, 08:29
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Slovakia is doing their share, with those MIG29's mentioned earlier they are now delivering highly mobile artillery as well. MRSI capability to 6 rounds per minute.

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Old 14th Aug 2022, 08:31
  #7969 (permalink)  
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https://samf.substack.com/p/winning-through-attrition

Winning Through Attrition

Lawrence Freedman
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 08:53
  #7970 (permalink)  
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Hopefully Russia chooses to not retrograde, continue to face worse and worse logistical issues which will result in an easy start to an Ukrainian counter offensive. For now Ukraine will continue to utilize fires to shape the battlefield and inflict damage decreasing Russian capability….
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 10:06
  #7971 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Antonovsky bridge took another major pummelling last night including secondary explosions from equipment/armament on the bridge itself - they’re not going to fix that overnight…
Special Kherson Cat makes a great observation, "the Antonovsky bridge has successfully intercepted all missiles".

with such humor in adversity, I suspect that the morale war is being won by the defenders of Ukraine.

It is telling that the Russians have taken umbrage at the thought of having their European vacations curtailed. Speaks to where the ethics have devolved, it is time to ban the Russians from travel to any civilized nation.

Last edited by fdr; 14th Aug 2022 at 10:53.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 10:15
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Other border disputes?

Originally Posted by ORAC
https://samf.substack.com/p/winning-through-attrition

Winning Through Attrition

Lawrence Freedman
Yes, a very interesting essay.

What doesn't get a mention and I remain curious about is who else might benefit from Russia's ongoing preoccupation with the Ukraine?

The Russian border is immense and I would imagine there are a few disputed areas. With a lot of Russia's might focused around Donbas and such I'm surprised there haven't been opportunists trying to 'regain' a little ground while the Kremlin has other things on its collective mind
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 10:21
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
The Russian border is immense and I would imagine there are a few disputed areas. With a lot of Russia's might focused around Donbas and such I'm surprised there haven't been opportunists trying to 'regain' a little ground while the Kremlin has other things on its collective mind
AFAIK it's Russia who maintains that parts of its border aren't where the majority of the world recognises them to be, not vice versa.

So which nations are you expecting to invade Russia?
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 10:31
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
So which nations are you expecting to invade Russia?
I wouldn't want to guess but if Washington wanted to stir up a little more trouble for Vlad it could find somewhere else to help.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 12:09
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
I wouldn't want to guess but if Washington wanted to stir up a little more trouble for Vlad it could find somewhere else to help.
And how much of Russia would you expect these unspecified nations to invade, with US help? Would they stop before they got to Moscow?
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 12:09
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Unlucky Crimean tourist, I would bet his insurance will say war is not covered regardless of what Putin calls it

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Old 14th Aug 2022, 12:23
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Those poor Ukrainians forced to fight against their own.

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Old 14th Aug 2022, 14:25
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
And how much of Russia would you expect these unspecified nations to invade, with US help? Would they stop before they got to Moscow?
I think the prospect of loosing even a little established Russian territory might be enough to compound Putin's problems at home. To say nothing of multiplying problems for their already overtaxed logistics if he chose to defend his ground.
​​​​​
Perhaps this is an outrageously unlikely scenario? If you think so perhaps you could indicate why?

Last edited by Rockie_Rapier; 14th Aug 2022 at 15:27.
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 15:21
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Missing from the news lately is the massive RF shelling of mostly civilian targets that had been going on for months.

Methinks HIMARS and similar ordnance have effectively interdicted RF supply lines and ammo depots

The side that runs out first loses.
​​​
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Old 14th Aug 2022, 15:33
  #7980 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
I think the prospect of loosing even a little established Russian territory might be enough to compound Putin's problems at home. To say nothing of multiplying problems for their already overtaxed logistics.
​​​​​​
Is this such an outrageously unlikely scenario? If you think so perhaps you could indicate why?
Yes, outrageous.

Such an incursion would be either NATO, or not NATO.
NATO is defensive.
No non-NATO country with a Russian border shows the slightest appetite to commit suicide as far as I am aware. Please name such a country.
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