Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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They could. And Putin could rightfully tell Biden to shove his demands where the sun don't shine. And remind him that Kazakhstan asked for assistance while the US invaded Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan (fled afterwards) and he would be correct.
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"We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding, guarantees — not assurances, not safeguards — guarantees, with all the words — shall, must — everything that should be put in this …. "
as long as they restore E Ukraine and give the same promises regarding the security of states on their borders.
as long as they restore E Ukraine and give the same promises regarding the security of states on their borders.
Evertonian
Err, yes. That's my point.
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I did find this a rather good article about Russia’s invasion options and cost.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-invasion
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-invasion
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A rather fascinating history of the changing face of Europe.
The music is a bit "enthusiastic".
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You missed Germany off that list..... ohhh hang on, we all did. 
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...er-ukraine-end
Nato chief warns of ‘real risk of conflict’ as talks with Russia over Ukraine end
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” after talks between alliance members and Russia ended with no signs of progress towards defusing the crisis over Ukraine. ”.
The Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, emerged from the four hours of talks renewing Moscow’s threat that it would take military steps if political measures were not enough to “neutralise the threats” it says it faces. His remarks came only days after his fellow Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, had assured reporters Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine.
Grushko said he had told Nato representatives that “further sliding of the situation could lead to the most unpredictable and most severe consequences for European security”.…
The Nato-Russia Council meeting will be followed on Thursday in Vienna by a third round of talks with Moscow, in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), currently chaired by Poland.….
In an interview with the Guardian, the former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said a Russian operation against Ukraine now appeared inevitable, once diplomatic talks with the US, Nato and the OSCE concluded this week.….
Ukrainian government sources suggest Russia is considering a “staged provocation” inside Ukraine that could then be used to justify a bigger attack. This might include a “violent” incident at the Russian embassy or consulate, which Moscow could then blame on far-right Ukrainian extremists.
Meanwhile, Kyiv officials confirmed news reports that the Biden administration quietly authorised an additional $200m (£146m) security assistance to Ukraine in late December. The delivery – first reported by CNN – would include radar systems and marine equipment…..
Nato chief warns of ‘real risk of conflict’ as talks with Russia over Ukraine end
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” after talks between alliance members and Russia ended with no signs of progress towards defusing the crisis over Ukraine. ”.
The Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, emerged from the four hours of talks renewing Moscow’s threat that it would take military steps if political measures were not enough to “neutralise the threats” it says it faces. His remarks came only days after his fellow Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, had assured reporters Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine.
Grushko said he had told Nato representatives that “further sliding of the situation could lead to the most unpredictable and most severe consequences for European security”.…
The Nato-Russia Council meeting will be followed on Thursday in Vienna by a third round of talks with Moscow, in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), currently chaired by Poland.….
In an interview with the Guardian, the former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said a Russian operation against Ukraine now appeared inevitable, once diplomatic talks with the US, Nato and the OSCE concluded this week.….
Ukrainian government sources suggest Russia is considering a “staged provocation” inside Ukraine that could then be used to justify a bigger attack. This might include a “violent” incident at the Russian embassy or consulate, which Moscow could then blame on far-right Ukrainian extremists.
Meanwhile, Kyiv officials confirmed news reports that the Biden administration quietly authorised an additional $200m (£146m) security assistance to Ukraine in late December. The delivery – first reported by CNN – would include radar systems and marine equipment…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/business...gy-agency-boss
Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss
The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.
He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.
“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”……
Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss
The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.
He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.
“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”……
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...al-2022-01-12/
U.S. largely settled on Russia sanctions if it invades Ukraine, officials say
U.S. largely settled on Russia sanctions if it invades Ukraine, officials say
https://www.theguardian.com/business...gy-agency-boss
Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss
The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.
He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.
“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”……
Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss
The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.
He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.
“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”……
Afaik, Europe shifted to a spot pricing system for their gas supply, away from long term contracts.
Gazprom has not received any short term orders during the current price surge, so the pipelines are almost at a standstill. In fact, gas has been flowing from Germany to Poland, reflecting market prices.
There is no benefit to Gazprom to fill its reservoirs in Europe, all that does is keep prices down, to their detriment.
I don't know if it was in this thread or somewhere else, but I seem to remember that Gazprom is actually delivering all contracted gas. They do refuse to deliver additional quantities though.
As much as there are politics involved, the are playing the same game OPEC is playing, limiting supply for extra profit.
As much as there are politics involved, the are playing the same game OPEC is playing, limiting supply for extra profit.
"but I seem to remember that Gazprom is actually delivering all contracted gas. They do refuse to deliver additional quantities though."
I believe that is correct - the buyers mis read the market and always thought they could get more more from Russia easily . The Russians are holding supplies to contracted amounts to remind people to open up NS2
I believe that is correct - the buyers mis read the market and always thought they could get more more from Russia easily . The Russians are holding supplies to contracted amounts to remind people to open up NS2
"but I seem to remember that Gazprom is actually delivering all contracted gas. They do refuse to deliver additional quantities though."
I believe that is correct - the buyers mis read the market and always thought they could get more more from Russia easily . The Russians are holding supplies to contracted amounts to remind people to open up NS2
I believe that is correct - the buyers mis read the market and always thought they could get more more from Russia easily . The Russians are holding supplies to contracted amounts to remind people to open up NS2
Building a pipeline is a pretty long term investment, which needs long term contracts to be economically viable.
Not sensible imho for Europe to have tried to chisel a few Euros from the gas cost by switching to short term orders, at the expense of domestic energy security.
Certainly has played directly into Russia's hand, would be astonished if Putin did not take advantage of it.
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Once bitten twice shy, Europe will learn from this and seek other sources of energy for the future to the detriment of the Russian economy. I would imagine holding the west to ransom over energy is being looked at very closely and the reliance on Russian gas will be a decreasing demand from now on.