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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 30th Dec 2021, 14:23
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What a wonderful country to live in! 20 million incarcerated and/or killed by Stalin, all the State's assets controlled by criminals and no opportunity to criticise or oppose unless you want to be poisoned, shot or dropped from a window........

The Russian people do have a proud history of enduring hardship but are they ready for another Stalingrad?
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Old 30th Dec 2021, 14:50
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Sorry to add some aviation content, but the SU-30SM2's will be based to Kaliningrad. It also means that those will be flying via Baltic sea a lot and with traditional Russian approach causing airspace violations along the way. Will create interesting id missions for countries along the route.

https://english.pravda.ru/news/russi...ningrad_su_30/
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Old 30th Dec 2021, 16:16
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https://www.washingtonindependentrev...d-on-the-brink

Deja vu ?

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Old 30th Dec 2021, 16:41
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The echos of cold war on this Pravda article, I recommend reading to everyone, gives a good idea what is thought in Moscow.

Quote:
East Europeans member-nations will then have to make an important and definitive decision as to where they stand. Such a stand will be a George Bush-style ultimatum of "you're either with us or against us”, and a decision as to whose economic, trading orbit they will join for the next few decades. They can then choose the Western-style, American-guided orbit which provides them almost nothing, or accept a much more realistic, common-sense, regional, trading-partner relationship with its ethnically, socially, and culturally-based next-door neighbour, Russia, which provides them with almost everything they need.
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/opinion/149987-usa_nato/
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Old 30th Dec 2021, 16:53
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How many mentions of war and needing to choose sides in that piece - all from a self-proclaimed peaceful nation...............

It seems reminiscent of McCarthyism in it's paranoia and demonisation of the other side - the Americans were wrong then and Russia is wrong now.
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Old 30th Dec 2021, 17:01
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Originally Posted by Beamr
There is something wrong with russian windows. I believe there would be a good market opportunity for quality western windows there. This the latest from 27th Dec

A Russian nationalist who criticised Vladimir Putin and predicted civil war fell to his death from a fifth-floor window in Moscow.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ow-window.html
Well, a good ice pick is hard to find these days.
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Old 30th Dec 2021, 17:33
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And the poisoned Brolley is so yesterday.
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Old 31st Dec 2021, 07:58
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as is exploding or poisoned cigars in Cuba - but that was along time ago as well..............
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Old 31st Dec 2021, 14:59
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
It seems reminiscent of McCarthyism in it's paranoia and demonisation of the other side - the Americans were wrong then and Russia is wrong now.
And I have no idea where this is coming from. I can't imagine they really think that 'the West' will invade them. That is absolutely absurd.
I think it is more a wish to go back to old Importance and influence while they see their neighbours walking over to 'the other side' one by one and this making them feeling somewhat lonely and left behind. The regions in Eastern Germany where people saw all the Young leaving towards the booming (South-)western Regions are the most frustrated people you will find in the whole Country. Getting left behind has a deep emotional impact.
At the same time they see China rising and becoming the prime Rival of America and the West on a global scale getting all the attention. It strikes me that Russian provocation and troop build up shifted into next gear just when the Tension over Taiwan rose to new heights and the Pacific Theater was declared the Big One by the US. Feels to me a bit like a child that wants to grab back attention.

Looking into History it is clear that letting go isn't easy for a former Global Super Power. Obama's declaration of Russia as a Regional Power was surely the biggest Insult they ever had to endure.
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Old 31st Dec 2021, 16:01
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Maybe it is a deliberate "burn all bridges"-concept so any future political strategy will have to follow current confrontation logic long term without opening up to the west, democracy or similar? They will likely waste what limited wealth they have left in the process and end up poorer and weaker than before. So what will the next step then have to look like? Nuclear threats?
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 00:10
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Smoke and mirrors Henra, country not doing well, blame others and ramp up the tension with the west to divert your populations attention from home troubles.
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 00:51
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Smoke and mirrors Henra, country not doing well, blame others and ramp up the tension with the west to divert your populations attention from home troubles.
Don't know the the economic details, but suspect that Nord Stream 2 would allow Gazprom to recapture almost all of the exorbitant Ukraine gas pipeline transit fees.
Not sure how many people have to die for this.
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 04:47
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Don't know the the economic details, but suspect that Nord Stream 2 would allow Gazprom to recapture almost all of the exorbitant Ukraine gas pipeline transit fees.
Not sure how many people have to die for this.
nobody should die
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 09:10
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NS2 certainly gives Gazprom and any buyer a chance to play one route off against another but that simple market forces Gazprom will still want an economic return on their investment in the Ukraine lines and facilities so they may drop prices. They're probably eyeing the European LNG market as a major target
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 18:14
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To address the original question, I think that Thursday’s meeting between Biden and Putin - at Putin’s request - made it clear he plans to invade.

The Whitehouse is saying that Putin stated that imposition of severe sanctions in the event of war would be a colossal mistake. He is trying to ‘scare off’ the US. However, Putin states publicly that he has no intention of moving on Ukraine. That being the case, why would he want to warn the US of the penalty it would impose for an invasion, if he has no intention of doing so?

He knows he will invade, and is trying to scare the US into backing off.
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Old 1st Jan 2022, 21:13
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More talks after the Orthodox Christmas , if they are talking they ain’t fighting . Better jaw jaw than war war .

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Old 1st Jan 2022, 22:16
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
To address the original question, I think that Thursday’s meeting between Biden and Putin - at Putin’s request - made it clear he plans to invade.

The Whitehouse is saying that Putin stated that imposition of severe sanctions in the event of war would be a colossal mistake. He is trying to ‘scare off’ the US. However, Putin states publicly that he has no intention of moving on Ukraine. That being the case, why would he want to warn the US of the penalty it would impose for an invasion, if he has no intention of doing so?

He knows he will invade, and is trying to scare the US into backing off.
Probably by saying so he keeps the West guessing.
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Old 2nd Jan 2022, 06:27
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Good film available on Netflix at the moment - Mr Jones - shows well the smoke and mirrors mindset that probably hasn't changed much since Stalin's day.

Based on a true story and what horrors happened in Ukraine in the 30s. It's not a cheery watch but worth it for the history lesson.
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Old 2nd Jan 2022, 07:42
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...sian-pressure/

Finland says it could join Nato despite Russian pressure

Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö on Saturday reiterated his country’s right to join Nato if it wants to, in a dismissal of Russian demands for no further expansion of the Western military alliance near its borders.

“Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for Nato membership, should we ourselves so decide,” President Niinistö said in his New Year address.

Last month Russian President Vladimir Putin sought guarantees that Finland would not join Nato. In a statement released by the Kremlin, President Putin said Russian wants “international legal security guarantees” ruling out “Nato’s further movement eastward”.….

President Niinistö said Russia ultimatums “are in conflict with the European security order” and demanded that European states must not be excluded from negotiations between Russia, the United States and Nato.

Senior US and Russian officials are set to meet in Geneva in less than two weeks, seeking a pathway to reduce tensions.

In addition to written security guarantees that Ukraine and other former Soviet countries will be excluded from any Nato expansion, Moscow is demanding that the alliance remove offensive weaponry from countries neighbouring Russia. The US and Nato allies say the Russian demands are non-starters.

“In this situation Europe cannot just listen in,” President Niinistö said. “The sovereignty of several member states, also Sweden and Finland, has been challenged from outside the Union. This makes the EU an involved party. The EU must not settle merely with the role of a technical coordinator of sanctions.”

His comments came as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was criticised for taking a milder stance against Russia in his New Year address.

“Transatlantic cooperation is also essential for security in Europe,” he said. “In this area, we are currently facing new challenges regarding Ukraine. The inviolability of borders is precious, and is not negotiable.”

Andrew Weiss, a specialist on US-Russia Relations at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said there were “glaring differences between Mr Scholz’s comments and how President Niinistö “lays it all out there with regard to the Russia problem.”

“Read both messages and judge for yourself who understands power politics in the Year 2022,” Mr Weiss tweeted……
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Old 2nd Jan 2022, 07:57
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I'd be surprised if the Finns did join NATO TBH - they haven't a lot to gain over their current status as a tough mouthful to chew. I suspect they're "helping out" by stating their independence without any big swell of public opinion to actually do it
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