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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 28th Feb 2022, 15:49
  #1981 (permalink)  
 
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The effects of cluster munitions in a residential area clearly visible here (nothing graphic, probably only a few cars trashed in this video but beyond reprehensible when these land where people are)

--link edited so preview hopefully not show. agree, disturbing if you watch it full screen

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498338694587203595


Last edited by Snyggapa; 28th Feb 2022 at 16:14.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:04
  #1982 (permalink)  
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sat...152923545.html

Germany's Enercon on Monday said a "massive disruption" of satellite connections in Europe was affecting the operations of 5,800 wind turbines in central Europe. It said the satellite connections stopped working on Thursday, knocking out remote monitoring and control.

"The exact cause of the disruption is not yet known. The communication services failed almost simultaneously with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Enercon said in a statement.

The company said it had no further information on who or what may have caused the disruption.

Enercon has informed Germany's cybersecurity watchdog BSI and is working with the relevant providers of the satellite communication networks to resolve the disruption, which it said affected around 30,000 satellite terminals used by companies and organisations from various sectors across Europe….

U.S.-listed satellite communications firm Viasat Inc said earlier on Monday it was investigating a suspected cyberattack that caused a partial outage in its residential broadband services in Ukraine and other European countries.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:12
  #1983 (permalink)  
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Latest attack in Kyiv seems to have been against a military C3 centre.

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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:19
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Originally Posted by ORAC
RUSI: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force
There's a couple of points missing from this analysis IMO. Firstly, fear of MANPADs (Afghan legacy?). They're aware Stinger is a formidable weapon in the right hands. From the footage I've seen almost everything seems to be at low-level. Second, from what I've read Russia has little in the way of tanking capability, and they probably won't want to risk this anywhere near Ukrainian airspace, so time on station for front-line kit will be limited, esp if they're having to scoot about at low-level.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:22
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Cluster Munitions are only illegal if used by a signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, the UK, Ukraine, and most but not all EU countries are. The US, China, North Korea, Brazil, Cyprus, Turkey, Saudia Arabia and Russia are among those states which aren't. The US has argued that use of cluster weapons are less harmful to civilians in some situations "Because future adversaries will likely use civilian shields for military targets – for example by locating a military target on the roof of an occupied building – use of unitary weapons could result in more civilian casualties and damage than cluster munitions," ... "Blanket elimination of cluster munitions is therefore unacceptable due not only to negative military consequences but also due to potential negative consequences for civilians." Gordon Brown signed under heavy US pressure not to. There is a loophole which means the UK can allow the US to store cluster munitions on UK territory.

That is not to deny that as with all legal weapons it's the intent of the user that renders it a crime.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:23
  #1986 (permalink)  
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Russian SSBNs putting to sea in response to their raised alert state…

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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:27
  #1987 (permalink)  
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The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles.…

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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:29
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Also interesting is the observation on the PGM. Makes me scratch my head, a bit.
If they used a lot of them in Syria a few years ago, how is it that the order book for replenishment hasn't already back filled the stockpiles?
It's not like the leadership can't direct the money there, is it?
There's a story I'd like to see told, though I doubt I'll ever see it.
Maybe there were more interested in making everything look shiny and new for the benefit of the Russian people and their cheerleaders online?

I thought Russia was selective in their use of PGMs in Syria, possibly because they didn't have many to begin with, or maybe because they weren't that bothered about avoiding collateral damage.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 16:46
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Originally Posted by Fitter2
admikar

My history is a bit vague here - was the intervention in the post-Yugoslavian civil wars not under the auspices of the UN? The 'West' may have some issues with the talking shop in New York, but we do step up when the world asks us to.
Unlike the UN authorized intervention in admikar's declared country of residence, Operation Allied Force/Nobel Anvil was a 'Humanitarian Intervention' by NATO alone as it was clear Russia and probably China would veto any resolution for action against Milosevic for refusing to sign the Rambouillet accords. Although they appear to some to have been drafted with the intention of making them unsignable they were very mild compared with Putin's demands on Ukraine. One assumes that NATO did so in the firm belief Russian support for Milosevic would be only words not active force.

I'll switch to passive mode for the time being in expectation of ARMs.

Last edited by SLXOwft; 28th Feb 2022 at 17:32. Reason: Forgot to add the bit about Bosnia and Herzogovina
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:16
  #1990 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Reduce, Re-use, Re-cycle.
Must have cost a bomb to put on her insurance…

I’ll get my coat…
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:17
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles.…

i hope they do a quick paint job on the markings before driving off.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:25
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Finland has announced it is sending lethal arms to Ukraine in support.
yes, that is including
1500 NLAW's
2500 assault rifles plus ammo
70000 food rations (battlefield)
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:42
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Oh well, fair enough, if somebody hasn't signed their monica on a piece of paper to say that only bad-boys use them , then we're free and clear ! Open season, the glorious 28th rides again ! Put another two-pence in the Jacob Rees Mogg nesting doll.
...apart from: trouble with international law is unlike domestic law it requires the agreement of some unsavoury parties. A number of otherwise civilised and liberal countries are given to stretching the boundaries.

If there is ever a tribunal I suspect Russia's failure to declare war in spite of its mealy mouthed 'special operation' excuse will be seen as a a war crime as a clear breach of the 1907 Hague Convention relative to the opening of hostilities.

The laws of war are in some instances farcical: strictly speaking since 1907 the launching of projectiles and explosives from balloons, 'or by other new methods of a similar nature' has been a war crime for the US and UK but only in the case of a war between themselves with no allies on either side. They were the only two countries to sign and ratify what was an extension to the five year prohibition under the Declaration of 1899 which they had refused to sign.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:47
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Originally Posted by Mogwi
Unfortunately the Russians did not sign up to the ban on custard bombs.
Did he really say that?

Irony?
inebriation?
predictive text?

Either way, they should be allowed under the Geneva Convention. With rhubarb crumble preferably. A moving experience.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 17:57
  #1995 (permalink)  
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Not something to be trifled with.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 18:08
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I believe the BL755s dropped by SHARs during the Falklands War were referred to as Custard Bombs, at least by 800 NAS.

Last edited by SLXOwft; 1st Mar 2022 at 11:28. Reason: Removing my James Heappey moment R
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 18:22
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When I see these images of closely packed Russian vehicles in convoy in the Ukraine why can I not get images of the fleeing convoys in Kuwait and the decimation of those.

https://www.axios.com/satellite-imag...3102643ba.html
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 18:26
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Originally Posted by Beamr
By the Budapest memorandum article 4 it would not be NATO but UK and US providing the support they've promised in case someone attacks Ukraine.
It would be seen by Putin as hostile action by 2 NATO member states and he would react accordingly, which is one of many reasons why it will never happen.
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 18:52
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Looks like some oligarch may be evading the sanctions, San Marino registered /Turkish owned Global Express 7T-VSR of Black Eagle Havacilik Anonim Sirketi (I'm led to understand a company linked to the escape of Ghosn and the kidnap from Kenya of an opponent of Erdogan) flying through Poland having routed from Moscow via Belarus and southern Lithuania.



Sanctioned oligarch 'all assets frozen' Alisher Burkhanovich Usmanov's A-340 over the M-IABU Black Sea out of Munich. 2207Z

Last edited by SLXOwft; 28th Feb 2022 at 19:20. Reason: Usmanov
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Old 28th Feb 2022, 18:52
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Originally Posted by MPN11
THEY enabled it to happen, the way the USA enabled Trump.

However, I stray into other areas of discussion,

I just pray ‘internal forces’ will disable Vlad, one way or another.
Trump was voted for. Putin kills, imprisons his political opponents and makes genuine political opposition a crime. Not the same at all!
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