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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 10:13

Vaccinations passports might be a little pointless only if you think that the purpose is to indicate that said person won't catch it nor won't transit it. Quite useful if you think the purpose is to (i) save them from themselves ie make sure they have taken some basic precautions (ii) not displace an ICU bed from a cancer or trauma patient, if and when they return home needing hospitalization (iii) not transmit COVID to some poor immuno-suppressed bugger in hospital when they drag their unvaxxed asre home and have to share a ward.

I have not heard anyone half-sensible say/write something other than once we are at 70% to 80% vaxxed then the unvaxxed can basically get shafted and mother nature can pick off the weak ones. Even so-called Chairman Dan said stuff to this effect about six weeks ago. Right now however we have a huge slice of the population that have not had prior opportunity.

It is perfectly clear that there is a significant % of case fatality in Aus amongst not particularly vulnerable pax not lucky enough to secure a vax, and that nowhere in the world has any authority managed to keep COVID in a simmer state. You either crush it, let it rip, or sit hopelessly in purgatory like NSW. Happy happy simmer state does not exist. Welcome Glady and friends to the reality, truly sorry for 5m people or so in Sydney that lost a full six weeks before it clicked.

Just get to 70% and 80% vax and then social and political pressure will deal with the rest. We're all sick of this and the vaxxed will not tolerate 2022 being restricted whatsoever. First hand experience says that certainly that is more or less where the CoA thinking is at in Aus at the present time, and probably from here on in.

So stop bashing 43 and DD from boredom; we're not at a point where let-it-rip is yet wise, but it is coming and it will happen. Until then it will all be sh*t.


Paragraph377 14th Aug 2021 11:15

43 inches truly lives in eternal fear of catching the dreaded China virus. Itís so funny because you 43 inches being a triple vaccinated, 5 x mask wearing, face shield wearing, hand sanitizer strapped to the waste belt, locked in a basement with its own oxygen supply person will likely catch it anyway!!!

neville_nobody 14th Aug 2021 12:01


If anyone thinks for a minute that the individual state's won't lockdown after the target of 70/80% is reached, then you are delusional. Why would they risk voter backlash? Andrews has already said he will if he has to.
If that holds true there won't be an airline industry in this country anymore. Noone is going to last another year of the current insanity.

It's illegal but all three airlines should just collude and go to the government with a date on which they will close the doors if the borders don't fully open without restriction.

43Inches 14th Aug 2021 12:16

I think there's some social lotion flowing tonight....

Not sure what the point of those videos were, one is Kary Mullis saying PCR can detect anything you want, that's true, you can find just about anything if you look hard enough. The other is Fauci talking about what minimum viral loads detected by PCR are required to deem a patient no longer infectious and able to go back to home or a nursing home, they both seem wildly out of context. Is this supposed to link to something?

43Inches 14th Aug 2021 12:32

I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.

Paragraph377 14th Aug 2021 12:56


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11094967)
I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.

43 inches from the Virgin 3.1 thread;

ďBecause I do get out there and do things I have almost died from a bacteria far worse than Covid. That being said, your understanding of statistics is lacking, you don't catch heart disease or cancer, these things are genetic dispositions or some exposure to things that cause them, ie bad diet for heart disease or long term exposure to smoking for cancer. The 1% we discuss with Covid is your chance of dieing from it now, not what your possible eventual cause of death will be. Things that give you 1/100 chance of a heart attack or cancer immediately or quickly resulting in your death are heavily regulated for the safety of the stupid. This is why electricians do your house wiring and strict regulations of food or who can operate machinery etc. Some idiot who does not wish to quarantine can just walk past sneeze on me and I now have Covid and a 1 in 100 chance of dieing from it within a few weeks. Here's a contentious thought, a study on suicide attempts found only 1.5% of attempts using cuts or drugs resulted in death, so people that actually try to kill themselves using medical means are only slightly more likely to die of it than Covid infectionĒ.

You are truly one of those paranoid delusional people who go through life fearing germs and anything else even remotely scary. I canít even imagine the hoops you put Mrs 43 inches through each time she leaves the house and then comes back inside - full body ultra violet scan, stand under a heated shower for 25 minutes and scrub with hospital grade anti bacterial soap, remove all clothes and place in plastic bag to be sent through an autoclave, exterior of the house protected by a fully enclosed bubble with security measures similar to accessing the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

43, either get a life or move to Antartica or to an abandoned Queensland farm on 300,000 hectares where you will be safe from everything except falling meteorites (which could also contain micro organisms). Stop using your comfort blanket of trying to convince everyone to acquiesce to your level of paranoia in the hope that by doing so it will help to protect you from getting the virus.




unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 12:56

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1 percent fatality rate is still a lot. 1 in 1e+5 or 1e+6 is different and generally thought tolerable. Vax means 1e+5 or so. That's all that matters, rest is just noise.

43Inches 14th Aug 2021 13:08

I sincerely hope you are drunk or maybe just joking, you come across a little unhinged there mr 377.
I will say it one more time though, Im vaccinated and have no fear of the virus at all.

Im asking the more sane reasonable ones out there to get vaccinated so we can open up and get back to Aviating.

If you are reading some sort of fear into my posts you have some wild imagination happening.

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 13:12

I do understand why people are lashing out but it is not very rational. Govts need to keep COVID out because they have no effective means of suppressing it other than keeping people stationary and indoors. Personally I can't see Vic doing more than a two weeks in a row without lockdowns between now and November. Aviation is stuffed until then. Lifestyle ditto. COVID has us by the b**ls, soz but that's the bottom line.

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 15:14

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive. That is pre-delta and at day 4-6 of infection; ramps up prior and down after. Worry about the false negative rate, not the other way. Really bewildering why test accuracy has not improved in 18 months. As already stated, false negative is the key issue.

Rapid antigen are less than 80% true pos, but actually do better on part of the shoulder period to PCR max, and are cheap and quick. Should be being used a lot more in Aus. Are being used in some situations, a bit below the radar, e.g. certain progressive logistics and food processing coys.

As above, false neg is the main concern.

Edit: that alt-guardian site (or whatever it is) is total QAnon crazy land, but article kind of latching on to a truth, in a weirdarse sort of way
PPS. that https://off-guardian.org site accepted my first few couple of reasoned posts kind of, then they won't show any more. Wonder why the AI is out to get me? Cookies, IP addresses and conspiracies? Didn't like being challenged by an actual technologist/scientist? Maybe they are actually psuedo-news, tin-foil hatters, propagandists... you choose!!!

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 15:43

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....015af16523.png

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 21:07

Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, Iím on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 22:05


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095131)
Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, I’m on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.


yes and I noticed that they didn’t close the real estate loophole that Byron man used. So you can still leave Sydney to go and view a property.

and we get the statewide lockdown announcement only hours after the daily media conference and it was done by Twitter and Facebook. Staggering.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 22:10


Originally Posted by unexplained blip (Post 11095047)
Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....015af16523.png


Might as well flip a coin, utterly pointless. Unless you have at least 95% then forget it.

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 22:11

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 22:15


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095150)
As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

and how are they going to enforce it. I have just decided to make the most of high prices in Sydney and sell up. Think I might move to Coffs. Might just arrange a viewing of a property next weekend. Take the family up for a few days. Prove me wrong.

as for what should be open and closed completely agree. And we are at week 8 now. And they should have been a lot tougher on enforcing the rules but we all know why that didn’t happen don’t we. Given the area in south west Sydney where the non compliance was rampant.

lineupandwait 14th Aug 2021 22:18

This is the time to rip of the Covid band aid - Iím quite happy we are having the out break and itís time to learn to live with it. Any at risk has had many many months to get vaccinated - if you are not at risk but personally scared of Covid get AZ. NSW will be ahead with living with Covid and opening up once and for all - no more lockdowns!

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 22:25

Victoria 25 new cases today.

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 22:27

Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 22:38


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095157)
Donít shoot the messenger, after my coffee Iím going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

my property scenario was hypothetical only.

as for the us, bit of a worry they are still having any restrictions. They are way ahead of us in vaccination rates. And I would hazard an educated guess and say anyone now unvaccinated has chosen not to be. They need to just open up.



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