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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

43Inches 14th Aug 2021 13:32

I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.

Paragraph377 14th Aug 2021 13:56


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11094967)
I'm not quite sure what the angle is here, are you saying that too many cases are being registered because of the low positive testing threshold?

That's plausible, would answer why death rate seemed to drop during Delta strain. Which means the death rate is actually higher than stated as too many are being classified as positive when not. Death from covid is measured differently than just being positive, the cause of death would have to be symptomatic with the virus to be assigned that cause.

43 inches from the Virgin 3.1 thread;

“Because I do get out there and do things I have almost died from a bacteria far worse than Covid. That being said, your understanding of statistics is lacking, you don't catch heart disease or cancer, these things are genetic dispositions or some exposure to things that cause them, ie bad diet for heart disease or long term exposure to smoking for cancer. The 1% we discuss with Covid is your chance of dieing from it now, not what your possible eventual cause of death will be. Things that give you 1/100 chance of a heart attack or cancer immediately or quickly resulting in your death are heavily regulated for the safety of the stupid. This is why electricians do your house wiring and strict regulations of food or who can operate machinery etc. Some idiot who does not wish to quarantine can just walk past sneeze on me and I now have Covid and a 1 in 100 chance of dieing from it within a few weeks. Here's a contentious thought, a study on suicide attempts found only 1.5% of attempts using cuts or drugs resulted in death, so people that actually try to kill themselves using medical means are only slightly more likely to die of it than Covid infection”.

You are truly one of those paranoid delusional people who go through life fearing germs and anything else even remotely scary. I can’t even imagine the hoops you put Mrs 43 inches through each time she leaves the house and then comes back inside - full body ultra violet scan, stand under a heated shower for 25 minutes and scrub with hospital grade anti bacterial soap, remove all clothes and place in plastic bag to be sent through an autoclave, exterior of the house protected by a fully enclosed bubble with security measures similar to accessing the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

43, either get a life or move to Antartica or to an abandoned Queensland farm on 300,000 hectares where you will be safe from everything except falling meteorites (which could also contain micro organisms). Stop using your comfort blanket of trying to convince everyone to acquiesce to your level of paranoia in the hope that by doing so it will help to protect you from getting the virus.




unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 13:56

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1 percent fatality rate is still a lot. 1 in 1e+5 or 1e+6 is different and generally thought tolerable. Vax means 1e+5 or so. That's all that matters, rest is just noise.

43Inches 14th Aug 2021 14:08

I sincerely hope you are drunk or maybe just joking, you come across a little unhinged there mr 377.
I will say it one more time though, Im vaccinated and have no fear of the virus at all.

Im asking the more sane reasonable ones out there to get vaccinated so we can open up and get back to Aviating.

If you are reading some sort of fear into my posts you have some wild imagination happening.

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 14:12

I do understand why people are lashing out but it is not very rational. Govts need to keep COVID out because they have no effective means of suppressing it other than keeping people stationary and indoors. Personally I can't see Vic doing more than a two weeks in a row without lockdowns between now and November. Aviation is stuffed until then. Lifestyle ditto. COVID has us by the b**ls, soz but that's the bottom line.

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 16:14

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive. That is pre-delta and at day 4-6 of infection; ramps up prior and down after. Worry about the false negative rate, not the other way. Really bewildering why test accuracy has not improved in 18 months. As already stated, false negative is the key issue.

Rapid antigen are less than 80% true pos, but actually do better on part of the shoulder period to PCR max, and are cheap and quick. Should be being used a lot more in Aus. Are being used in some situations, a bit below the radar, e.g. certain progressive logistics and food processing coys.

As above, false neg is the main concern.

Edit: that alt-guardian site (or whatever it is) is total QAnon crazy land, but article kind of latching on to a truth, in a weirdarse sort of way
PPS. that https://off-guardian.org site accepted my first few couple of reasoned posts kind of, then they won't show any more. Wonder why the AI is out to get me? Cookies, IP addresses and conspiracies? Didn't like being challenged by an actual technologist/scientist? Maybe they are actually psuedo-news, tin-foil hatters, propagandists... you choose!!!

unexplained blip 14th Aug 2021 16:43

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....015af16523.png

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 22:07

Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, I’m on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 23:05


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095131)
Gladys doing lockdown attempt number two! A lot of ppl still getting around and there is still a lot open out there, I’m on my way to Bunnings now, then the cafe for a coffee. NSW is a joke now.


yes and I noticed that they didn’t close the real estate loophole that Byron man used. So you can still leave Sydney to go and view a property.

and we get the statewide lockdown announcement only hours after the daily media conference and it was done by Twitter and Facebook. Staggering.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 23:10


Originally Posted by unexplained blip (Post 11095047)
Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some spreading... indicative only, work on the impression not the absolutes.https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....015af16523.png


Might as well flip a coin, utterly pointless. Unless you have at least 95% then forget it.

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 23:11

As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 23:15


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095150)
As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.

and how are they going to enforce it. I have just decided to make the most of high prices in Sydney and sell up. Think I might move to Coffs. Might just arrange a viewing of a property next weekend. Take the family up for a few days. Prove me wrong.

as for what should be open and closed completely agree. And we are at week 8 now. And they should have been a lot tougher on enforcing the rules but we all know why that didn’t happen don’t we. Given the area in south west Sydney where the non compliance was rampant.

lineupandwait 14th Aug 2021 23:18

This is the time to rip of the Covid band aid - I’m quite happy we are having the out break and it’s time to learn to live with it. Any at risk has had many many months to get vaccinated - if you are not at risk but personally scared of Covid get AZ. NSW will be ahead with living with Covid and opening up once and for all - no more lockdowns!

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 23:25

Victoria 25 new cases today.

SHVC 14th Aug 2021 23:27

Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

Foxxster 14th Aug 2021 23:38


Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11095157)
Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.

my property scenario was hypothetical only.

as for the us, bit of a worry they are still having any restrictions. They are way ahead of us in vaccination rates. And I would hazard an educated guess and say anyone now unvaccinated has chosen not to be. They need to just open up.


lineupandwait 14th Aug 2021 23:47


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11095161)
my property scenario was hypothetical only.

as for the us, bit of a worry they are still having any restrictions. They are way ahead of us in vaccination rates. And I would hazard an educated guess and say anyone now unvaccinated has chosen not to be. They need to just open up.

They’re open - the first 4min of this is all you need to see:




43Inches 14th Aug 2021 23:52


USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.
This is the problem with the high case numbers, I'm not sure how much avoidance is mandated rules or just population scared to gather. The latter is definitely on the minds of friends I have over there especially with the high rate of children being infected, and some of those getting very sick, although thankfully not dieing. And I will use the words getting sick as they are not just testing positive, some are having very severe symptoms leading to lack of eating and drinking for several days and needing medical intervention.

The reason I'm seeing in some states for the rapid spread is that anti vax sentiment also spreads in pockets like the virus itself, so certain towns have very high proportion of unvaccinated, despite the whole country having a generally high rate. This then means when it gets loose in those populations it spreads rapidly among them. You don't get the fire break in the chain in those areas that having 2 of 3 vaccinated offers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...-rip/100361880


https://www.skynews.com.au/world-new...c3b378d9774c5b

Just for information my view is not based on either of those news reports but on what I've heard from friends over there. The news is just covering a similar topic.

dr dre 15th Aug 2021 00:46


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095163)

The reason I'm seeing in some states for the rapid spread is that anti vax sentiment also spreads in pockets like the virus itself, so certain towns have very high proportion of unvaccinated, despite the whole country having a generally high rate. This then means when it gets loose in those populations it spreads rapidly among them.

Yeah, I think by the time Australia’s vaccination is mostly completed (whenever that is) there’ll be a comparatively even uptake of vaccines. In the US there’s certain areas (seemingly ones that support the former President) that are much higher in their vaccine refusal rates, up to a 20% difference. This is with the vaccine uptake rates beginning to slow down so it there’ll be certain pockets that have a large number of unvaccinated.

In Australia there’s some differences in state rates now, about 10%, but I’d expect as the rollout is still a work in progress and more Pfizer and Moderna now coming online in the last quarter of the year it should be a relatively even distribution across the country once we all the time above 70/80%. It should prevent Covid becoming a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” here.

SHVC 15th Aug 2021 01:34

McGowen on Sky News AM agenda today has said despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state. “His state” he owns you all he thinks.


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