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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

common cents 15th Aug 2021 05:01


Originally Posted by Blackout (Post 11095225)
Dont worry 43, please add more to the list, im running myself down and have very bad english.

Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/lite...101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.



43Inches 15th Aug 2021 05:14

I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.

One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard

I don't think they have even read each others posts.

Keep going my court jesters,

I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.

common cents 15th Aug 2021 05:20


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095238)
I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.

One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard

I don't think they have even read each others posts.

Keep going my court jesters,

I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.

Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches?
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 05:23


Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches?
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.
I mean seriously all the others have to do is read your assumptions, I don't need to insult you, you do it to yourself. :E

common cents 15th Aug 2021 05:25


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095243)
I mean seriously all the others have to do is read your assumptions, I don't need to insult you, you do it to yourself. :E

Come on mate! You can do better than that.

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 05:29

I mean what is your overall purpose here?

My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.

Are you an Anti-vaxxer is that the point?

I could go to the trouble of explaining why and how your data yet again is flawed, but I'm pretty sure all and sundry are aware of that by now, so I'll leave it short.

common cents 15th Aug 2021 05:32

I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 05:35


I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.
One thing I don't do is bore you to tears, I'm under your skin so bad it's like a Covid itch that you cant get rid of. You wouldn't be responding and targeting me so vehemently if it was any other case. I do appreciate the love and attention though.

common cents 15th Aug 2021 05:48


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095248)
One thing I don't do is bore you to tears, I'm under your skin so bad it's like a Covid itch that you cant get rid of. You wouldn't be responding and targeting me so vehemently if it was any other case. I do appreciate the love and attention though.

Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?

DirectAnywhere 15th Aug 2021 05:49

If the egotists could possibly stop bickering for a minute.


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11095222)
Im not commenting on whether this is right or wrong.. just stating what was said.

Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders……..

If this is true, the four phase plan is already dead and this industry is royally f&*ked, so are tourism operators across the country. It's hard not to despair about the future when WA (and VIC today) are stating that NSW isn't complying with Phase A. That provides those states with the wriggle room necessary to say that they won't comply with Phase B, C and D.

If borders are going to stay closed at 80% vaccination in pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy we might as well all pack up now and sell the aeroplanes for coke cans because that's all they're useful for. Morrison has no authority or power. His political capital is at an all time low and the premiers are demanding COVID-zero as the policy going forward. Can anyone else see a way out of this that ends well for aviation, because I'm really struggling to at the moment?


43Inches 15th Aug 2021 06:03


Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?
If you rather me wear my Napoleon hat while you infuriate over there, why not, whatever floats your boat. It was more a delusion of minuscule though as I was analogous to Covid.

Paragraph377 15th Aug 2021 06:25


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095246)
I mean what is your overall purpose here?
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.

Now that is so funny. You spend 24/7 on this thread because you believe it’s your calling to sway others to vaccinate so that you can go back to work! Here’s the thing 43mm, vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying your DC8 freighter any time soon. The one thing that you are putting your trust in is not something that is guaranteed to work in the long run. Tsk tsk tsk.



common cents 15th Aug 2021 06:25

Napoleon hat?
Isn’t that what short guys with an inferiority complex wear?
You trying to tell me something?

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 06:30

Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.

KRviator 15th Aug 2021 06:36


Originally Posted by Paragraph377 (Post 11095262)
The one thing that you are putting your trust in is not something that is guaranteed to work in the long run. Tsk tsk tsk.

I don't think we're putting our trust in vaccinations per se', rather, the Government - every single one of those ****ers across the nation - is saying "Get vaccinated, or you're screwed". Not in as many words, but by their actions, and continued kow-towing to the "health advice" commentary.

We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...

McGowan has already all but admitted he won't reopen the border no matter what the vaccination rate is nationwide, so, short of assassinating 7 Premiers (well, 6, I'll give the NT Chief Minister a pass, they've been fairly level-headed throughout), or staging a military coup, I don't see any alternative.

That being said, I do think this thing will evolve, hopefully to something like the flu, with annual vaccines, however, there's also a distinct possibility of it going the other way. My only hope in that case, is it strikes Parliament House first....

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 06:40


We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...
Spot on,

Whatever your thoughts on pro/not vax. The nation will burst open in the coming months once those targets are met. The faster we get there the less it will send whats left of aviation and tourism broke.

Add to that as a pilot/airline worker you probably won't have a choice anyway, so better to just get it done.

Chris2303 15th Aug 2021 06:41


Originally Posted by Paragraph377 (Post 11095262)
vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying

At last - somebody else who understands!

There is also a probability that another virus, not a mutation of COVID19, will make itself known in the medium term

MickG0105 15th Aug 2021 06:48


Originally Posted by common cents (Post 11095235)
Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/lite...101765_f2.jpegAll persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.

Here's the abstract for the paper the you've taken that graphic from.


BACKGROUND

As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.

METHODS

All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.

RESULTS

Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.
BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer.

The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.

43Inches 15th Aug 2021 06:58


The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.
Which is pretty close to those figures from England we discussed earlier.

Paragraph377 15th Aug 2021 07:07


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11095264)
Now come on 377, Mr Two Cents is at least attempting some witty retort, although it's so blunt I'm suffering more concussion than insult.

I’m not interested in responding to you with a ‘witty retort’. And your response is a classic. You still believe the 80% line in the sand BS being promulgated by governments that couldn’t run a lemonade stand. I still recall the Morrison government and other governments saying;
- 65% vaccination and the borders will open. Now they are saying 70-80%.
- I recall the Governments saying that once 80% is achieved then the borders will open. Now some of them are saying it is not a guarantee.
- I recall CMO’s saying school aged students are not a risk and are exempt from vaccines. Yet most of the time schools have stayed closed for long periods and now they are talking about younger ones getting vaccinated.
- I recall the government saying that if you are immunised you will basically be able to move about freely. Nope, that hasn’t happened. In fact now they are saying that regardless of your vaccine status they may and will continue to close borders and enact lockdowns.

You see, the narrative changes constantly depending on what internal polling the political parties are doing, and what those results are. These muppets have no idea how to handle this pandemic. And they cannot guarantee all those ‘wonderful freedoms’ even if everyone is vaccinated. They are full of shit and jumping around from an hour to hour.

43mm, we are all over this COVID shit. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner.


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