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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

jrfsp 27th May 2021 11:21


Originally Posted by Troo believer (Post 11052288)
Correct. They donít understand science nor statistics. Vaccination IS the only way out. Otherwise you are just pissing into the wind. Sorry Ladies.

While i completely agree, news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated. "The data that we have is that in the hotspot areas around one in 10 of those in hospital are people who have had both jabs. "The fact that 90% are people who have not yet been double vaccinated gives us a high degree of confidence that the vaccine is highly effective but it also shows - the fact there's 10% who have been double vaccinated - that it isn't 100% effective."
We will need to accept a number of deaths, while this will be no different to other diseases it will be a difficult sell for the government when unlike the rest of the world we are not used to it. Don't expect to open the border until after the election.

Tucknroll 27th May 2021 11:30


Originally Posted by jrfsp (Post 11052340)
While i completely agree, news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated. "The data that we have is that in the hotspot areas around one in 10 of those in hospital are people who have had both jabs. "The fact that 90% are people who have not yet been double vaccinated gives us a high degree of confidence that the vaccine is highly effective but it also shows - the fact there's 10% who have been double vaccinated - that it isn't 100% effective."
We will need to accept a number of deaths, while this will be no different to other diseases it will be a difficult sell for the government when unlike the rest of the world we are not used to it. Don't expect to open the border until after the election.

Got a reference for that?

dysslexicgod 27th May 2021 11:47

You need to be thinking statistics.

1. You get ill if your body is infected with say 10,000,000 virus particles and your immune system can only neutralise 99,999,999 of them before your cells make another 10,000,000. You get better if your body can destroy virus particles faster than they can be made. If its the reverse, you die. Think something like Spitfire production vs ME109 to get the idea.

2. What a vaccine does is give your immune system a head start in battle#1.

3. A pandemic is a similar statistical exercise you need R0 to go to less than one to beat it. Anything that reduces the infection rate helps, vaccines, lockdowns etc.

Which brings up JRFSp's comment. It doesn't matter if a vaccine is only "90%" protective o an individual. What matters is getting R0 less than one. The vaccine doesnt have to be 100 percent effective to end the pandemic.

jrfsp 27th May 2021 11:49


Originally Posted by Tucknroll (Post 11052350)
Got a reference for that?

Sure: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-572...ost_type=share

compressor stall 27th May 2021 12:06

Wow. Quoting a conservative MP’s claims made in the House of Commons as a basis of fact. Impressive.

Serious studies suggest otherwise.

Foxxster 27th May 2021 12:14


Originally Posted by jrfsp (Post 11052340)
While i completely agree, news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated. "The data that we have is that in the hotspot areas around one in 10 of those in hospital are people who have had both jabs. "The fact that 90% are people who have not yet been double vaccinated gives us a high degree of confidence that the vaccine is highly effective but it also shows - the fact there's 10% who have been double vaccinated - that it isn't 100% effective."
We will need to accept a number of deaths, while this will be no different to other diseases it will be a difficult sell for the government when unlike the rest of the world we are not used to it. Don't expect to open the border until after the election.


well thatís perhaps worse than expected. Or is it, canít think at the moment.

stats are 57.6% have one vaccine
35.4% have had both

so that 10% of admissions relates only to the 35.4% which leaves 57.6% - 35.4% = 22.2% with only one shot. One shot is significantly less effective than two.

so there must be another 10% or so of admissions of people who have had only one of the two shots.

I would have thought with over a third of the population fully vaccinated and we were all told these were 90% + effective that there would be a lot less than 10% of total hospital admissions from this group. Sounds like these vaccines are not anywhere near as effective as first thought as being admitted to hospital clearly indicates a serious condition which is what the vaccines were meant to stop.


Foxxster 27th May 2021 12:24

Not sure where he was getting the 10% figure from. I sure hope it is inaccurate.
which it appears to be.

The study analysed a quarter of all hospital patients in England, Scotland and Wales between early December and early April, and is one of the first to look at the impact of vaccinations on the numbers of people subsequently admitted to hospital with Covid-19.

It suggests that around 1% of hospital admissions between December and April were of people with Covid who had already had one vaccine dose.

The study found higher numbers of Covid hospital admissions around the time of vaccination and soon after, before the jab had started to work. Admissions then tailed off as protection from the vaccine built up.

Troo believer 27th May 2021 12:32

Yes they’re are effective against DEATH or severe COVID. Some hospitalisations are inevitable. No two humans are the same. There is no silver bullet. Just because you’re in hospital doesn’t mean it’s necessarily severe disease. Depends on the state’s relevant policy. Qld I believe will admit you if you are COVID positive but I’m not 100% sure on that. Each state or country has varying requirements for admission.

From the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7018e1.htm
“In a multistate network of U.S. hospitals during January–March 2021, receipt of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines was 94% effective against COVID-19 hospitalization among fully vaccinated adults and 64% effective among partially vaccinated adults aged ≥65 years.”

Fuel-Off 27th May 2021 12:33

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....94011d0f03.png
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

So... that would make from a country's population of 66.7 million what... 95 people? 95 out of 66.7 million in hospital with covid who have been vaccinated. I'm sure the NHS can handle that amount. Not to mention that we don't know whether those people had been fully vaccinated. As in two doses, and at least three weeks after the last dose. If they hadn't - NEWSFLASH "Man with holes in umbrella gets wet when it rains".

But then, the PM needs to actually get a cohesive vaccination program sorted, but that seems rather illusive for a failed advertising executive. If you think SloMo is really acting in the country's best interest, you're gravely mistaken. Just wait until after the election, the so-called 'medical advice' will miraculously change to be in favour of opening the borders.

Fuel-Off :ok:

blubak 27th May 2021 22:43


Originally Posted by Fuel-Off (Post 11052386)
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....94011d0f03.png
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

So... that would make from a country's population of 66.7 million what... 95 people? 95 out of 66.7 million in hospital with covid who have been vaccinated. I'm sure the NHS can handle that amount. Not to mention that we don't know whether those people had been fully vaccinated. As in two doses, and at least three weeks after the last dose. If they hadn't - NEWSFLASH "Man with holes in umbrella gets wet when it rains".

But then, the PM needs to actually get a cohesive vaccination program sorted, but that seems rather illusive for a failed advertising executive. If you think SloMo is really acting in the country's best interest, you're gravely mistaken. Just wait until after the election, the so-called 'medical advice' will miraculously change to be in favour of opening the borders.

Fuel-Off :ok:

As far as i am aware if someone who has been vaccinated does get the virus their symptoms will me a lot less than non vaccinated & the risk of dying almost eliminated.
So what you say in your 1st paragraph backs that up i think.
The pm has done nothing to have a robust vaccination program in place,as you allude to he is in no way acting in the country's best interest.
Instead of embarrasing himself doing a photo shoot hanging out of an aircraft window he needs to take control of the mess he is presiding over.
Interesting how quiet he has been the last couple of days,wonder why that could be.

Foxxster 27th May 2021 23:11

Perhaps we should be sending some of these to Victorians to enjoy during their lockdown.

https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B00A2HD40E


CFD 28th May 2021 03:47

"news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated"
Well there are statistics and statistics. The UK prioritised vaccinations as in Australia by priority groups. My guess would be some of the hospitalisations may well have nothing to do with covid but more the underlying health condition and they just happen to have covid.
Latest data shows 65-90% reduction in symptomatic disease, 75-95% reduction in hospitilisation, 95-99% reduction in mortality after 2 doses and depending on vaccine type.
Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 21 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Guptar 28th May 2021 04:42

A few people here are mis-understanding the area of complex medicine and complex medicl conditions.
I have had in my family all my life with complex medical conditions so I have spent lots and lots of time in hospital waiting rooms.
Firstly, many people don;t understand the notion of "effectivness". I'll post a video that shows it's almost a random rumber based on a single study. It often has no relation to the numbers generated after say 5 years of use.

I have read the reprt from the NHS twice and can't find the refference to the 1in10 in hospital who have been vacinated.
However, it could be true, but for a different reason. A vaccination does not stop you getting the virus (as believed by lots lf people in the community), but for people with complex medical conditions who are fully vaccinated, getting covid (or influenza or dozens of other viruses) can cause a cascade of other problems which puts them in hospital. Their immune system may be combating Covid quite successfully, but due to the fragility of their other systems you ger a rapidly cascading set of other sytem problems. I suspect this is the case in the NHS numbers but will have to wait a few years for a full study to be be published.

I have a step-daugter in this position - she has been sent to hospital by helicopter 7 times through her life for this exact reason.


CFD 28th May 2021 06:31

Apologies Guptar.
My post was in reply to the statement news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated that someone else posted. I then made the point about other health conditions as you have. The NHS report that I quoted was just to make the point about the correct numbers if one had both doses of a vaccine.... it was not to back up the assertion of 10% of admissions have covid. That may or may not be true, I do not know. I was just referencing my source for those numbers.

SOPS 28th May 2021 10:23

SA now closed to all of Victoria.

Troo believer 28th May 2021 22:32

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ca273601f.jpeg
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....26cfd7e52.jpeg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....aaf5f31b4.jpeg

Bend alot 28th May 2021 23:29

Has it not been 3 day lockdowns for other states recently? - to get on top of things, when community cases happen.

7 or even 10 days is not an incubation period - Victoria must be well behind the 8 ball compared to other states.

dr dre 29th May 2021 00:07

Vaccine hesitancy is only going to increase given the ridiculous fearmongering some media have taken over vaccines:


The border isnít getting reopened without the vaccine rollout being completed so this is just fuelling the fire.

Green.Dot 29th May 2021 00:17

Completely agree Dre. WA (and many Australians) living in their own little temporary dream land. One day (soon enough) their Utopia will burn down without decisive action to vaccinate the masses.

Capn Rex Havoc 29th May 2021 00:31


Vaccine hesitancy is only going to increase given the ridiculous fearmongering some media have taken over vaccines:
1 in 88000 chance of getting a blood clot with the Astrazeneca. If there was a 1 in 88000 change of your engine blowing up you wouldn't go flying.

The sheep like ignorance of Australian is disconcerting. Australia is not a day advanced since March last year wrt to implementing reopening of the country. These rolling lockdowns are a bloody joke. What metric is the vic government using to allow the lockdown to be lifted? 5 days with no community spread?, 7 days 20 days? No policy. What about with vaccinations? Will Morrison open the international borders after 50% of the population is vaccinated? 60, 80, 20? Who knows. All Morrison wants is to get reelected.

Hotels for quarantine? what an absolute joke.

Reductions in group gatherings - but you can have 40000 people sitting next to each other in a football stadium.

In the last Vic lockdown (as this one) only essential workers can go to work. YET THEY HELD THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN. It is a an embarrassment.

No job keeper now, so I feel sorry for the Aussie workers that are going to devastated by this latest lockdown.


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