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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Foxxster 14th Jul 2021 01:49


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11078305)
Do you use the statistical life value of $5m for a 35 year old in good health or do you have a different value?

not sure why anyone is using a 35 year old.

the average age of WuHu flu deaths here is 82, same as the uk and representative of world wide figures.

I would think the statistical value of a 82 year old is somewhat less than 5 million.

perhaps use that number instead.

oh and many if not most people who die of WuHu are most certainly not healthy but have significant co morbidity factors.

Icarus2001 14th Jul 2021 02:47


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Can we remember that 98% of COVID positive people recover.
There isn’t enough research done on the long term effects of Covid for you to make that assessment.
I am not making an assessment, I am quoting the inverse of the Case Fatality Rate, the survival rate if you will. How many of the 98% who recover suffer "long Covid"?

The lowest CFR I could see is Qatar at 0.3% and most are between 1 & 2 %.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality


It found that of the patients studied, 80 per cent recovered within a month, and just under 5 per cent were still experiencing symptoms three months after their diagnosis.

MickG0105 14th Jul 2021 02:47


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11078306)
not sure why anyone is using a 35 year old.

the average age of WuHu flu deaths here is 82, same as the uk and representative of world wide figures.

I would think the statistical value of a 82 year old is somewhat less than 5 million.

perhaps use that number instead.

oh and many if not most people who die of WuHu are most certainly not healthy but have significant co morbidity factors.

Sure, why not. We'll just put them down as a miscellaneous write-off - we could probably have covered it with petty cash.

Foxxster 14th Jul 2021 03:38


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11078316)
Sure, why not. We'll just put them down as a miscellaneous write-off - we could probably have covered it with petty cash.

oh dear, did the facts hurt you. Show me on the dolly whereabouts.

Lead Balloon 14th Jul 2021 03:55


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11078299)
I know that response was to another comment but let's apply that reality test. Under the reality of the Federal government's paper thin parliamentary majority, the Constitution's division of powers between the Federal government and the States, and the current state governments can you articulate for us an alternative public policy approach that would have had even a ghost's chance of being enacted. Like it or lump it, here in the real world the guillotine test for public policy is implementability - can it be made real.

Happy to be proven wrong on this but there appeared to be a manifest lack of sufficient political support for alternative approaches to the pandemic for said alternative to get implemented. You can say that your 'unicorn' of an alternative approach would have been far superior on every dimension to the camel that we've got but the camel is what was realistically achievable, the unicorn is imaginary.

If the Commonwealth had stepped up to and competently discharged the responsibilities that fall squarely within its power, when it became obvious what was needed, we would all be in a different place now. Quarantine, vaccine purchase and roll out and aged care facilities.

We all realise that Scotty doesn't hold a hose or a syringe or lay bricks or work in a laboratory or run aged care facilities, but it's his government that pays the Piper and could and should have called the tune a lot earlier.

But I agree with you about the underlying politics. That's why the rumours of an early Federal election have evaporated. Scotty and his team are becoming very unpopular, as a consequence of their incompetence and - most recently - the differential treatment of Victorians compared with New South Welshmen.

All they know how to do well is react to political risk. And many, many Australians are getting very, very angry.

As I've said before, I earnestly hope that the urgency with which vaccines are now being purchased and rolled out will be the 'circuit breaker'. The alternatives are pretty ugly.



MickG0105 14th Jul 2021 04:42


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11078328)
If the Commonwealth had stepped up to and competently discharged the responsibilities that fall squarely within its power, when it became obvious what was needed, we would all be in a different place now. Quarantine, vaccine purchase and roll out and aged care facilities.

We all realise that Scotty doesn't hold a hose or a syringe or lay bricks or work in a laboratory or run aged care facilities, but it's his government that pays the Piper and could and should have called the tune a lot earlier.

But I agree with you about the underlying politics. That's why the rumours of an early Federal election have evaporated. Scotty and his team are becoming very unpopular, as a consequence of their incompetence and - most recently - the differential treatment of Victorians compared with New South Welshmen.

All they know how to do well is react to political risk. And many, many Australians are getting very, very angry.

As I've said before, I earnestly hope that the urgency with which vaccines are now being purchased and rolled out will be the 'circuit breaker'. The alternatives are pretty ugly.

Couldn't agree more that the vaccination program needs fixing. That said, when the initial roll-out and targets were announced I can't recall a groundswell of opinion that it wasn't fast enough (that could be down to bad recall).

I don't know about many, many Australians getting very, very angry. I've been trying to find polling on that topic. According to the Lowy Institute back in May,

Almost all Australian adults (95%) say that Australia has handled COVID-19 ‘very well’ or ‘fairly well’ so far.
It's fair to say that a lot has happened since May but by the same token, 95% is a high ceiling to be dropping from.

According to Essential it's a mixed bag. As late as last week people rating the federal government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak as very poor had tripled since the start of the year but only to 12 percent.

Speaking of the vaccination program if you go to the third page of the Essential Report, there's some interesting (and worrying) data. Back in April, well before the AstraZeneca pile-on, 16 percent were saying they'd never be vaccinated! You might wonder what that number is now.

In terms of what people think about the spending on the pandemic response, nearest I've found is the response to the budget - a pretty good approval rating but with many people confused about exactly what it meant for them. Time will tell. 

MickG0105 14th Jul 2021 04:44


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11078324)
oh dear, did the facts hurt you. Show me on the dolly whereabouts.

Thanks for taking time out to raise the standard of the discussion.

Lead Balloon 14th Jul 2021 04:48


That said, when the initial roll-out and targets were announced I can't recall a groundswell of opinion that it wasn't fast enough (that could be down to bad recall).
Your recall is accurate.

There wasn't "a groundswell of opinion that it wasn't fast enough" because Scotty was telling everyone it wasn't "a race" and, back then, people were putting more trust in him than they are now.

Vag277 14th Jul 2021 05:50

An interesting study 17 years ago into Australia's capability to respond to a pandemic. Also has some interesting references to previous lock downs and quarantine. NSW reaction to ordered lockdown during smallpox epidemic sounds like today!
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam.../rp0405/05rp03



601 14th Jul 2021 05:52


And many, many Australians are getting very, very angry.
Got any reference to backup this statement.
From a quick pole amongst the members a few organisations I belong to, the reverse is true.
Of course most of my associates are in the senior "vulnerable" cohort.

And a show of hands at a meeting last Wednesday. all but two have had at least one jab and had no confusion on what jab to get.

Lead Balloon 14th Jul 2021 06:01

Try a "pole" of small business owners in locked down cities and essential workers whose businesses and lives are thrown into complete turmoil each time there's a leak from inadequate quarantine arrangements.

Lead Balloon 14th Jul 2021 06:03


In terms of what people think about the spending on the pandemic response, nearest I've found is the response to the budget - a pretty good approval rating but with many people confused about exactly what it meant for them. Time will tell.
Indeed.

The trillion in debt will be paid off 'later' by 'someone'. Big problems if the immigration-driven Ponzi scheme doesn't start again, soon.

ruprecht 14th Jul 2021 06:11


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11078365)
Indeed.

The trillion in debt will be paid off 'later' by 'someone'. Big problems if the immigration-driven Ponzi scheme doesn't start again, soon.

That’s ok, I’m sure China will be along to sign a few Premiers up to the Belt and Road Initiative.


blubak 14th Jul 2021 07:26


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 11078283)
Don’t stir people up unnecessarily, there was one new case today and they were isolating throughout their infectious period.

The 1 case has gone to 8 now & guess what,those 3 furniture removalists are a big source of the ongoing outbreak.
These 3 & the owner of the removal business should be made accountable & fined heavily.
They have thumbed their nose at mask wearing requirements & many other conditions of their permit to travel/work in victoria.
Lets go with $5k each as a fine & $50k for the business.
We are so sick of these self entitled people so lets give them a memory jolt & maybe some others will take notice.

jrfsp 14th Jul 2021 07:38


Originally Posted by blubak (Post 11078385)
The 1 case has gone to 8 now & guess what,those 3 furniture removalists are a big source of the ongoing outbreak.
These 3 & the owner of the removal business should be made accountable & fined heavily.
They have thumbed their nose at mask wearing requirements & many other conditions of their permit to travel/work in victoria.
Lets go with $5k each as a fine & $50k for the business.
We are so sick of these self entitled people so lets give them a memory jolt & maybe some others will take notice.

Indeed, the reason home quarantine works in Singapore is people are scared of literally getting flogged if they dont comply. (Well imprisonment)

Too many people think the rules dont apply to them.

Agent_86 14th Jul 2021 07:40

Western Australia has just closed its border with VIC...

SOPS 14th Jul 2021 07:43


Originally Posted by Agent_86 (Post 11078394)
Western Australia has just closed its border with VIC...

Yep if you come from Vic to WA now, it’s 2 weeks Q.

jrfsp 14th Jul 2021 07:50

Stand downs are now inevitable

Don't forget quarantine is 99.9% successful - the consequence of the 0.1% doesn't matter....

blubak 14th Jul 2021 07:56


Originally Posted by jrfsp (Post 11078393)
Indeed, the reason home quarantine works in Singapore is people are scared of literally getting flogged if they dont comply. (Well imprisonment)

Too many people think the rules dont apply to them.

U are 100% correct.
If we tried anything like that here(maybe a flogging is over the top) can you imagine the response of the anti everything brigade.
Like its such an inconvenience to wear a mask & of course its not within human rights to make someone wear 1😷

ruprecht 14th Jul 2021 07:58


Originally Posted by jrfsp (Post 11078398)
Stand downs are now inevitable.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....062cd4ab9a.gif

:(



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