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Old 31st Jul 2021, 07:31
  #6721 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WingNut60
I don't know exactly what ScoMo said (and not inclined to chase it up, because it'll mean doodle-squat) but I'm fairly certain that the gentleman from the Grattan Institute that I listened to on Thursday evening said that they had determined that a vaccination level of 80% was necessary with a vaccination level of 95% for Australians over the age of 60.
That was a vaccination level of 80% of all residents - not just for adults.

Let's see how we go with that by Xmas.
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.

80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.

Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.

So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.




It is just sheer lunacy to be setting down "targets" like that. It would be easier to just say "never".

This stuff needs to be tested against reality and implementability. Israel seems to be managing okay with lower vaccination levels; we need to be going to school on their experience.

Last edited by MickG0105; 31st Jul 2021 at 07:41. Reason: Added detail
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 07:49
  #6722 (permalink)  
 
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Yep.

Due to minimum post lengths: I agree.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 07:58
  #6723 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.
My bad. I was driving in afternoon traffic and in rain that was "hissing" down.

On another note, I also heard (I think) a report of Pfizer being used (tested??) on a child (children??) as young as two years old some place in the U.S.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 08:05
  #6724 (permalink)  
 
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When will the lunacy of these governments stop! I want the choice on how I live I don't want inept premiers and Prime Minister now and the next one telling me they're keeping me safe, I can do that. Good on QLD for going hard again over one case I'm sure the small business owner who is about to throw 10-20 maybe 30K of food out thanks you immensely also. Lets just hope the spread of this highly contagious Delta variants does not spread because you locked down without notice and sent 1000s off ppl to que in the supermarkets all together the pictures I seen there is no 1.5m spacing due everyone wanting to get the same packet of bog wrap, again how much do you need for 3 days is there an alternate use let me know please.

The scariest thing I see now, the acceptance of these lock downs, its so normal to Australians and the fear I have this is the future well beyond. Sco Mo 4 step plan out of this I have come to realize today, this will not end any time before 2022 and well in to 2023 if we are lucky. from and aviation perspective even scarier there will come a time where one of the two will fall and be a memory which one, I don't know.

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 08:10
  #6725 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WingNut60
My bad. I was driving in afternoon traffic and in rain that was "hissing" down.
No problemo.

Originally Posted by WingNut60
On another note, I also heard (I think) a report of Pfizer being used (tested??) on a child (children??) as young as two years old some place in the U.S.
Yes, both Pfizer and Moderna are in Phase II and III trials in the US with under 18 year old cohorts that includes children aged two to 11. University of Pittsburgh and Stanford are two of the paediatric trial sites. The Pfizer trials are the further advanced, due to report in September.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 09:27
  #6726 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.

80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.

Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.

So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.
An excellent post of crunched numbers, Mick...So now my question become...What happens if (when) we don't reach those target percentages? No international reopening? No State reopening? Ongoing lockdowns until someone storms parliament like they did Washington?

Aviation lives on What if's and has multiple levels of redundancy for most every critical system or failure mode...So What if we don't reach those targets? What's Phase A of Plan B?
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 09:40
  #6727 (permalink)  
 
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Itís also not just 70% or 80%.

These targets need to be hit on both a national and state level. So highly populous states canít positively affect the overall number if their vaccination rates are ahead of the rest.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 10:17
  #6728 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
This is the only thing that matters, McGowan is doing what WA wants, WA isn't doing anything wrong. You can laugh, poke fun at or whatever but the state is functioning, free and making money. I disagree with how they are going about it, but it matters nowt what I think as I don't live there, and nothing they are doing is affecting me or my community. Especially if any of you clowns live in Sydney at the moment it might be best to just let them be.

The last lock down WA had many scoffed at it and are over it.

His power is limited and if the test comes. He will not be supported in ANY form of long lockdown (+3 weeks).

He is a goose. Only one card to play.- lets watch the "economy" then.

He has torched all other income, other than crays.

Ban on COVID ships into the Pilbara?, No they are welcome.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 13:52
  #6729 (permalink)  
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I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
Maybe that statement highlights our problem, not the Premier's or the PM's but ours.
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 22:31
  #6730 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
The last lock down WA had many scoffed at it and are over it.

His power is limited and if the test comes. He will not be supported in ANY form of long lockdown (+3 weeks).

He is a goose. Only one card to play.- lets watch the "economy" then.

He has torched all other income, other than crays.

Ban on COVID ships into the Pilbara?, No they are welcome.
come over to sunny sydney if you like. Come check out the ramifications of a politically motivated half arse lockdown
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Old 31st Jul 2021, 23:02
  #6731 (permalink)  
 
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I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
You are in the wrong country if you think you have much say in that. Australia is a Democratic Socialist country, that means the community elects leaders to decide what is best for the community, not for the individual. The only country remotely closer to the Libertarian society you are thinking of is the USA, even that is far from being able to "do what you want" free of the state. And to be honest, you don't want to be a true Libertarian, providing your own medical care and general infrastructure might be harder than you think.

What you are really saying is "I want the ability to do what I did before Covid", which is an ever changing thing, you just notice the big changes like Covid settings.

You get to choose how you live your life within the boundaries of Australian rules and society. Right now the rules are adjusted for pandemic settings, just like they are for wartime or terrorism etc.

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Old 1st Aug 2021, 01:28
  #6732 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
Unfortunately you are a human living on earth so you don't have that choice
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 02:25
  #6733 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
You get to choose how you live your life within the boundaries of Australian rules and society. Right now the rules are adjusted for pandemic settings, just like they are for wartime or terrorism etc.
Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

If any Australian thinks this pandemic response is what life will look like in confrontation with the Communist Party of China, they need to carefully research where our vulnerabilites as a nation present, ever so neatly exposed by our COVID response.

Right now, I've awoken to the mayhem of living on border towns on the NSW/QLD border with new sets of pandemic rules. Few are and will be following them.


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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:10
  #6734 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.
I'm not sure that's quite right, Roughly 17% of the population don't care, have no intention of following any covid rules, they are in every state, we see or hear about them during lockdowns.
Then there's those on the borders where for logistical reasons it's too hard to comply even though they are not anti anything.

NSW has a serious problem now, is it fair to say they have lost control of it and it's going to be a long haul back. I don't see the remaining states changing their game plan to accommodate NSW's problem.

I don't think we can call that a nation divided just yet.
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:20
  #6735 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.
Health and Defence have markedly different Constitutional allocations of accountability and consequent organisational alignments.
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:26
  #6736 (permalink)  
 
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I'd forgotten that you'd dodged the vertical fiscal imbalance and s 96 of the Constitution....

You should google that and find out its consequences for the Commonwealth's practical power.

Scotty could, but doesn't want to, step up in this time of national crisis.
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:26
  #6737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303
Unfortunately you are a human living on earth so you don't have that choice

I agree -

being a member of society is not optional just as paying tax is not optional. Similarly, not agreeing with the law does not exempt you from obeying it.

For those members of society (willing or reluctant) who choose to engage in civil disobedience as a means of protest, they should do so in the full knowledge that they will likely suffer consequences.

For any involved in aviation, they should be aware that those consequences may compromise their ASIC privilege.

https://www.asic.net.au/question/wha...riminal-record


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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:31
  #6738 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
When will the lunacy of these governments stop! I want the choice on how I live I don't want inept premiers and Prime Minister now and the next one telling me they're keeping me safe, I can do that. Good on QLD for going hard again over one case I'm sure the small business owner who is about to throw 10-20 maybe 30K of food out thanks you immensely also. Lets just hope the spread of this highly contagious Delta variants does not spread because you locked down without notice and sent 1000s off ppl to que in the supermarkets all together the pictures I seen there is no 1.5m spacing due everyone wanting to get the same packet of bog wrap, again how much do you need for 3 days is there an alternate use let me know please.

The scariest thing I see now, the acceptance of these lock downs, its so normal to Australians and the fear I have this is the future well beyond. Sco Mo 4 step plan out of this I have come to realize today, this will not end any time before 2022 and well in to 2023 if we are lucky. from and aviation perspective even scarier there will come a time where one of the two will fall and be a memory which one, I don't know.

I want the choice on how I live I can keep myself and my family safe.
What exactly do you mean by you ďwant the choice on how I live?
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:31
  #6739 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
Australia's pandemic response is a template for military defeat. A nation divided and in a leadership rabble.

If any Australian thinks this pandemic response is what life will look like in confrontation with the Communist Party of China, they need to carefully research where our vulnerabilites as a nation present, ever so neatly exposed by our COVID response.

Right now, I've awoken to the mayhem of living on border towns on the NSW/QLD border with new sets of pandemic rules. Few are and will be following them.
It's ok our courageous PM will be safe and sound in Hawaii saying "I don't hold the guns mate" while drip feeding the defence force its resources
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Old 1st Aug 2021, 03:39
  #6740 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
I'd forgotten that you'd dodged the vertical fiscal imbalance and s 96 of the Constitution....

You should google that and find out its consequences for the Commonwealth's practical power.
The only reason that I hadn't responded to that is that it is as utterly inane as the nationhood power you were touting. The notion that a Federal government is going to coerce state compliance during a public health crisis via withholding funding is ridiculous. For starters it would fail to pass the Senate, you know that arm of the legislature known as 'the States' House'. Same applies to Section 96.

It's just another version of a unicorn, very pretty in imagination but does not exist in the real world.

That sort of nonsense would only get a run in the sort of authoritarian state that most rail against. Or are you happy with authoritarianism just so long as those in authority do what you want?

Last edited by MickG0105; 1st Aug 2021 at 03:40. Reason: Typo
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