All borders to reopen.
I'm going to put 10 bucks on NSW residents being able to travel overseas (excluding NZ) before they're allowed to travel to WA. Anyone want to take it?
We are in the nightmare scenario for domestic aviation. I'm struggling to see a way out of it. The only leverage Morrison has left is to cut support payments once we hit 80% national vax rates and hope the outcry and misery unleashed is sufficient to bend the will of the premiers. The man is a eunuch right now, confined to giving people money while the premiers make all the decisions.
We are in the nightmare scenario for domestic aviation. I'm struggling to see a way out of it. The only leverage Morrison has left is to cut support payments once we hit 80% national vax rates and hope the outcry and misery unleashed is sufficient to bend the will of the premiers. The man is a eunuch right now, confined to giving people money while the premiers make all the decisions.
I live in regional outback QLD and you are correct, the community here will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to get it. They all were horrified that I had the AZ and my kids also. I also remind them that Dr Young is a delusional old witch with that needs to resign. I was nearly arrested.
I reminded them of the consequences when we stop reporting cases numbers and it rips though these outback areas in future years, they didn’t have a care in the world. They will in the future however.
I reminded them of the consequences when we stop reporting cases numbers and it rips though these outback areas in future years, they didn’t have a care in the world. They will in the future however.
Except that they will all be broke by then, so I doubt anyone from NSW and VIC will be going anywhere for a while yet. Probably the very last to travel.
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There is hope ahead with potential acceptance amongst state leaders, but I still can’t see WA coming to the party anytime soon…
https://apple.news/AYaDjpjC3TbCYqiwJJoskng
https://apple.news/AYaDjpjC3TbCYqiwJJoskng
The logic is NSW and Vic will have different travel freedoms, not able to fly domestically but internationally. I cant wait for the Emperor and Queen P to keep the ppl convinced covid zero is the only way of living.
So the question to you, Xeptu is when would you, personally, be comfortable opening the WA border to NSW/Vic? Because, from where I sit in NSW, I'll have the opportunity to fly to Bali before I can get to Bunbury...And if McGowan won't reopen the border to NSW because of the risk, I dare say there's not a snowballs chance he'll reopen it internationally!
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For me the difficulty comes in the transition from 'double dougnut' press conferences to '200 positive, 4 deaths, all good'. The politicians have taken the short term gain and immense popularity of zero covid and now they are stuck.
We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.
We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.
I have read so thing a while back Dubai want the open off Australia, that could very well happen now. I can’t imagine the tennis players isolating like they did this yr at the 2022 open when the can easily go to another country freely. F1 that could very well go also.
So the question to you, Xeptu is when would you, personally, be comfortable opening the WA border to NSW/Vic? Because, from where I sit in NSW, I'll have the opportunity to fly to Bali before I can get to Bunbury...And if McGowan won't reopen the border to NSW because of the risk, I dare say there's not a snowballs chance he'll reopen it internationally!
Before WA opens it's border to NSW or VIC, firstly I would expect most if not all west australians to have been vaccinated as would be those intending to enter the state. There will still be requirements such as mask wearing in public places where people in any numbers would be. Random testing can be expected in the larger work places. I would expect a close monitoring of Europe and Israel to see what their longer term experience is.
I wouldn't expect to see these thresholds achieved and therefore border restrictions or closure much before mid 2022
I would expect west australians along with all the other largely unaffected states and territories to be comfortable with that expectation for at least another 12 months yet.
Last edited by Xeptu; 22nd Aug 2021 at 02:31. Reason: Extended
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It’s pretty simple really. Include children aged 12 to 15 in the 80% then let it rip. Frydenburg has said he’ll turn off the taps if the States don’t fall into line. Voters will soon turn on Kim Jong Mclown and Queen P when the rest of us are enjoying our summer vacation in Europe.
For me the difficulty comes in the transition from 'double dougnut' press conferences to '200 positive, 4 deaths, all good'. The politicians have taken the short term gain and immense popularity of zero covid and now they are stuck.
We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.
We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.
Governments are also failing to understand how the vaccine actually works - yes, the vaccine reduces your chances of getting it by around 75% but there is infection because the vaccine works in the lungs and not in the upper respiratory tract. So you’re going to get positives but that is a sign the vaccines are working as intended!
Also - models which governments love to cite. The U.K. has proven that these are constantly overplaying impacts of the virus. Whilst our case numbers are still stubbornly high, the numbers of people hospitalised are still below the best case predictions by about 20%.
Last edited by Dannyboy39; 22nd Aug 2021 at 03:24.
Prior to the year 2000, it was 5 years in the right hand seat of a turboprop to a command or picked up by the majors, grounded, merged, redundant about every 10 years and start agen, Then China happened, opened it's doors to the biggest population in the world to the tourism industry. Never before happened and 20 years of wow!! how is this even possible who would have thought. But end it would and I did tell the newbies it's not normally like this, it's unprecedented, this bubble will burst. So here we are, you guys don't know anything else, how it was precovid was the norm for you. So believe me I know what you are feeling when the music stops.
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There are plenty of people in Vic making good money and we cannot wait to spend it!
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We're in this situation because of a f&&k up in NSW, no doubt, but we are where we are. There will be a price to be paid in NSW in terms of lives, again no doubt. We will probably be seeing thousands of cases a day in NSW and tens of deaths a day by December, but that situation is inevitably coming now, like it or not. Vaccines will blunt the impact but COVID is here to stay. Other states are paying a price in different ways, but have the luxury still of making decisions about when they open up and to whom of they want to retain their COVID-zero status. So be it. As a domestic pilot, none of this is good news to me but I'm just giving my opinion as to the way things might play out. It's up to the state and territory governments if and when they open up. I'd rather see things open up as soon as we hit 80%, but that's self interest talking and seems unlikely given commentary from various premiers and chief ministers, in spite of what the PM wants.
Short story, I'm not sure if it's legal to open international borders in one state only but, if it is, I think it's likely that NSW residents will be travelling overseas before they will travel to WA unless things change somehow. Educated guess, but it's feeling that way to me.
DirectAnywhere
First let me say I feel your pain and extend that to all those vast majority in both NSW and VIC doing all the right things.
I agree with all that you are saying except any possibility of any of the borders opening this year.
I don't think NSW Health has their head around what is coming in the next week or so. You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.
First let me say I feel your pain and extend that to all those vast majority in both NSW and VIC doing all the right things.
I agree with all that you are saying except any possibility of any of the borders opening this year.
I don't think NSW Health has their head around what is coming in the next week or so. You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.
Excess deaths during Covid
Not the first time this site has been cited. The "Our World in Data" web site has a variety of graphs showing death rates from 2015 to the present.
The "Excess Mortality" graph (default country is the US) shows substantially higher death rates in 2020. Data is a little behind for 2021 e.g. United Kingdom is 'only' up to July 26, 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count
Change country to Australia and you'll see our figures are not that much different from our average since 2015.
But if you care to look at a few others such as, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and they all show significant 'excess deaths' during 2021. Russia is also showing another substantial rise in 2021. United Kingdom figures to 26 July seem to be starting an upward trend just one week after their reducing restrictions.
Our advantages as an island have helped but I guess, despite their many fumbles, it would appear that Australian governments (and the vast majority of the population) have managed Covid fairly well ... at least in keeping the death toll down.
The "Excess Mortality" graph (default country is the US) shows substantially higher death rates in 2020. Data is a little behind for 2021 e.g. United Kingdom is 'only' up to July 26, 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count
Change country to Australia and you'll see our figures are not that much different from our average since 2015.
But if you care to look at a few others such as, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and they all show significant 'excess deaths' during 2021. Russia is also showing another substantial rise in 2021. United Kingdom figures to 26 July seem to be starting an upward trend just one week after their reducing restrictions.
Our advantages as an island have helped but I guess, despite their many fumbles, it would appear that Australian governments (and the vast majority of the population) have managed Covid fairly well ... at least in keeping the death toll down.
