All borders to reopen.

[PoppaJo]

I live in regional outback QLD and you are correct, the community here will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to get it. They all were horrified that I had the AZ and my kids also. I also remind them that Dr Young is a delusional old witch with that needs to resign. I was nearly arrested.

I reminded them of the consequences when we stop reporting cases numbers and it rips though these outback areas in future years, they didn’t have a care in the world. They will in the future however.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by SHVC

I will bet $100 on it, the unrest will run riot in QLD when they see NSW and Victorians booking a flight to Europe next yr.

Except that they will all be broke by then, so I doubt anyone from NSW and VIC will be going anywhere for a while yet. Probably the very last to travel.

[Green.Dot]

There is hope ahead with potential acceptance amongst state leaders, but I still can’t see WA coming to the party anytime soon…

https://apple.news/AYaDjpjC3TbCYqiwJJoskng

[SHVC]

The logic is NSW and Vic will have different travel freedoms, not able to fly domestically but internationally. I cant wait for the Emperor and Queen P to keep the ppl convinced covid zero is the only way of living.

[KRviator]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

I'm struggling to understand your logic. What makes you think we in the largely unaffected states and that's all of us outside of NSW and VIC would want to even risk damage to our business and economy by opening our borders before we are confident we can.

So the question to you, Xeptu is when would you, personally, be comfortable opening the WA border to NSW/Vic? Because, from where I sit in NSW, I'll have the opportunity to fly to Bali before I can get to Bunbury...And if McGowan won't reopen the border to NSW because of the risk, I dare say there's not a snowballs chance he'll reopen it internationally!

[murder most fowl]

For me the difficulty comes in the transition from 'double dougnut' press conferences to '200 positive, 4 deaths, all good'. The politicians have taken the short term gain and immense popularity of zero covid and now they are stuck.

We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.

[SHVC]

I have read so thing a while back Dubai want the open off Australia, that could very well happen now. I can’t imagine the tennis players isolating like they did this yr at the 2022 open when the can easily go to another country freely. F1 that could very well go also.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by KRviator

So the question to you, Xeptu is when would you, personally, be comfortable opening the WA border to NSW/Vic? Because, from where I sit in NSW, I'll have the opportunity to fly to Bali before I can get to Bunbury...And if McGowan won't reopen the border to NSW because of the risk, I dare say there's not a snowballs chance he'll reopen it internationally!

So the question is to me personally ok and so my answer is my personal opinion at this time. Firstly Bali no longer exists, there would be no point going there even if you wanted to, probably for at least the next couple of years. WA opens and closes its borders to those states and territories dependant on both risk assessment and management. The border hasn't remained permanently shut.

Before WA opens it's border to NSW or VIC, firstly I would expect most if not all west australians to have been vaccinated as would be those intending to enter the state. There will still be requirements such as mask wearing in public places where people in any numbers would be. Random testing can be expected in the larger work places. I would expect a close monitoring of Europe and Israel to see what their longer term experience is.

I wouldn't expect to see these thresholds achieved and therefore border restrictions or closure much before mid 2022

I would expect west australians along with all the other largely unaffected states and territories to be comfortable with that expectation for at least another 12 months yet.

[SHVC]

I don’t think our economy and way of life fit in with your expectations.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by SHVC

I don’t think our economy and way of life fit in with your expectations.

Our economy is doing just fine thanks and you are entitled to your opinion just the same

[Bad Adventures]

It’s pretty simple really. Include children aged 12 to 15 in the 80% then let it rip. Frydenburg has said he’ll turn off the taps if the States don’t fall into line. Voters will soon turn on Kim Jong Mclown and Queen P when the rest of us are enjoying our summer vacation in Europe.

[SHVC]

You must of had a few bad hands dealt in life Xeptu! You seem to be taking great joy at others misery and pain.

[Dannyboy39]

Originally Posted by murder most fowl

For me the difficulty comes in the transition from 'double dougnut' press conferences to '200 positive, 4 deaths, all good'. The politicians have taken the short term gain and immense popularity of zero covid and now they are stuck.

We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.

Clearly a huge policy shift, but Australia needs to come into line with the majority of the rest of the world which is gradually opening up to the vaccinated. Whilst these policies stay in place, I cannot see the Ashes or Australian Open or the next F1 race happening this coming summer.

Governments are also failing to understand how the vaccine actually works - yes, the vaccine reduces your chances of getting it by around 75% but there is infection because the vaccine works in the lungs and not in the upper respiratory tract. So you’re going to get positives but that is a sign the vaccines are working as intended!

Also - models which governments love to cite. The U.K. has proven that these are constantly overplaying impacts of the virus. Whilst our case numbers are still stubbornly high, the numbers of people hospitalised are still below the best case predictions by about 20%.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by SHVC

You must of had a few bad hands dealt in life Xeptu! You seem to be taking great joy at others misery and pain.

You must be kidding me, how the f$#k do you conclude that. I understand your position I have been there myself more than a couple of times in my aviation career.

Prior to the year 2000, it was 5 years in the right hand seat of a turboprop to a command or picked up by the majors, grounded, merged, redundant about every 10 years and start agen, Then China happened, opened it's doors to the biggest population in the world to the tourism industry. Never before happened and 20 years of wow!! how is this even possible who would have thought. But end it would and I did tell the newbies it's not normally like this, it's unprecedented, this bubble will burst. So here we are, you guys don't know anything else, how it was precovid was the norm for you. So believe me I know what you are feeling when the music stops.

[rez125]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

Except that they will all be broke by then, so I doubt anyone from NSW and VIC will be going anywhere for a while yet. Probably the very last to travel.

Broke? Haven't been so busy in my profession ever.

There are plenty of people in Vic making good money and we cannot wait to spend it!

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by rez125

Broke? Haven't been so busy in my profession ever.

There are plenty of people in Vic making good money and we cannot wait to spend it!

Glad to hear it mate, at least there's some good news out of VIC

[DirectAnywhere]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

I'm struggling to understand your logic. What makes you think we in the largely unaffected states and that's all of us outside of NSW and VIC would want to even risk damage to our business and economy by opening our borders before we are confident we can.

Hi Xeptu, the logic is simply that Covid zero is dead in NSW. Like it or not, COVID is on its way to becoming endemic in NSW, possibly Vic too unless they can get on top of things. It's feasible to see a scenario in four months where NSW residents will be able to book their summer school holiday trip to Aspen or Fiji but won't be able to drive to Queensland or fly to WA to see nanna for Christmas.

We're in this situation because of a f&&k up in NSW, no doubt, but we are where we are. There will be a price to be paid in NSW in terms of lives, again no doubt. We will probably be seeing thousands of cases a day in NSW and tens of deaths a day by December, but that situation is inevitably coming now, like it or not. Vaccines will blunt the impact but COVID is here to stay. Other states are paying a price in different ways, but have the luxury still of making decisions about when they open up and to whom of they want to retain their COVID-zero status. So be it. As a domestic pilot, none of this is good news to me but I'm just giving my opinion as to the way things might play out. It's up to the state and territory governments if and when they open up. I'd rather see things open up as soon as we hit 80%, but that's self interest talking and seems unlikely given commentary from various premiers and chief ministers, in spite of what the PM wants.

Short story, I'm not sure if it's legal to open international borders in one state only but, if it is, I think it's likely that NSW residents will be travelling overseas before they will travel to WA unless things change somehow. Educated guess, but it's feeling that way to me.

[Xeptu]

DirectAnywhere

First let me say I feel your pain and extend that to all those vast majority in both NSW and VIC doing all the right things.
I agree with all that you are saying except any possibility of any of the borders opening this year.

I don't think NSW Health has their head around what is coming in the next week or so. You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.

[layman]

Excess deaths during Covid

Not the first time this site has been cited. The "Our World in Data" web site has a variety of graphs showing death rates from 2015 to the present.

The "Excess Mortality" graph (default country is the US) shows substantially higher death rates in 2020. Data is a little behind for 2021 e.g. United Kingdom is 'only' up to July 26, 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

Change country to Australia and you'll see our figures are not that much different from our average since 2015.

But if you care to look at a few others such as, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and they all show significant 'excess deaths' during 2021. Russia is also showing another substantial rise in 2021. United Kingdom figures to 26 July seem to be starting an upward trend just one week after their reducing restrictions.

Our advantages as an island have helped but I guess, despite their many fumbles, it would appear that Australian governments (and the vast majority of the population) have managed Covid fairly well ... at least in keeping the death toll down.

[aviation_enthus]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

I'm struggling to understand your logic. What makes you think we in the largely unaffected states and that's all of us outside of NSW and VIC would want to even risk damage to our business and economy by opening our borders before we are confident we can.

What damage??

The only “damage” that will be inflicted by opening up AFTER +80% of people have been vaccinated, will come from Premiers like McGowan forcing lockdowns for no reason.

People WANT to travel. People WANT to go and an spend money on dinner/movies/AFL/etc. People WANT to live their lives, you only have to look to Europe and the USA to see the massive rebound in demand when vaccinations are at a high level and restrictions are removed.

If the vaccines work as the evidence suggests (high 90% reduction in hospitalisations), the health system will be able to cope with the expected cases in ICU.

There is NO excuse for a lockdown or border restrictions if the WA/QLD health system is able to cope with the expected number of hospitalisations. NONE.

”oh but what about Echo/Foxtrot/Gulf variant?!”

NOPE!

We have a vaccine that can be modified, we have a testing regime to identify cases and new variants, we have had 18 months to prepare medical facilities to deal with this, when we get to 80% vaccinated, the government should basically get out of the way and let people get on with their lives.

If Covid is going to be a long term, endemic issue, then the various state health departments will have to adjust their resources to deal with a change in requirements. Same as dealing with any other disease. That may mean more ICU places, or more staff trained to deal with respiratory disease etc.

In NSW the % of patients in ICU with COVID is still well under 10%. Numerous medical professionals have stated they are busier but nowhere near stretched. They could triple the numbers in ICU with Covid and still be ok.