Originally Posted by
MickG0105
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.
80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.
Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.
So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.
An excellent post of crunched numbers,
Mick...So now my question become...What happens if (when) we don't reach those target percentages? No international reopening? No
State reopening? Ongoing lockdowns until someone storms parliament like they did Washington?
Aviation lives on
What if's and has multiple levels of redundancy for most every critical system or failure mode...So
What if we don't reach those targets? What's Phase A of Plan B?