Originally Posted by
WingNut60
I don't know exactly what ScoMo said (and not inclined to chase it up, because it'll mean doodle-squat) but I'm fairly certain that the gentleman from the Grattan Institute that I listened to on Thursday evening said that they had determined that a vaccination level of 80% was necessary with a vaccination level of 95% for Australians over the age of 60.
That was a vaccination level of 80% of all residents - not just for adults.
Let's see how we go with that by Xmas.
The Grattan Institute's recommendation was for 80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated, including 95 percent of Australians over 70 (not 60) and others at high risk.
80 percent of all Australians to be fully vaccinated - that's off with the fairies in terms of being achievable. Over 70s represent roughly 10 percent of the population so 95 percent coverage of that cohort gets you to 9.5 percent of your 80 percent of all Australians target. So far, so good - 70.5 percent to go.
Now for the mugging by reality. Presently there are no COVID-19 vaccines approved for children under 12 and the under 12s cohort represents 15 percent of the population.
So now you're chasing that 70.5 percent from the 13 - 69 cohort or 75 percent of the total population. That requires 94 percent coverage - completely and utterly unrealistic on a great day for vaccination compliance. Try lining that 94 percent compliance for 13 - 69 year olds up against this data on hesitancy from The Melbourne Institute.
It is just sheer lunacy to be setting down "targets" like that. It would be easier to just say "never".
This stuff needs to be tested against reality and implementability. Israel seems to be managing okay with lower vaccination levels; we need to be going to school on their experience.