Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1786056206852686174?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Russia launched the first train from Port of Mariupol to Volnovakha station.

The first flat wagon is for mine safety, so as not to blow up the locomotive. Russia is building this railroad line as an alternative to the Kerch Bridge. This will help Russian military logistics.

[NutLoose]

Only while the bridges along the line are still standing, no point using munitions on it until it is completed, that then allows Russia to spend effort, manpower, materials and finances on building it. Then you drop the bridges etc preventing it functioning.

[NutLoose]

Various points being raised re hitting the oil structures in Russia.

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1786042782223610068
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1786042782223610068

[NutLoose]

:(

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1783885505261654484

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1783885505261654484

[KeyPilot]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1786274252066287885

What is the US stance now on use of US weapons to attack inside of Russia? I have genuinely lost track of the current position on this.

[ORAC]

Reference #10506 above…..

https://x.com/schizointel/status/1786038014763766139?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Last night, Ukraine conducted long-range OWA-UAV strikes on Russian Railroad Infrastructure and Electric Transformer Substations.

It has been several months since Ukraine has done any strikes on a Traction Power Station

At around 2300 local time Ukrainian OWA-UAV's struck Traction power stations in
-Ponyri
-Svoboda

At around 2320 local time Ukrainian OWA-UAV's struck Traction power stations in
-Zmievka
-Glazunovka

Several transformer substations were also attacked on the same stretch. As a result, an emergency power outage occurred at the Zmievka and Glazunovka stations.

This is one of the main primary rail routes bringing ammunition and supplies down to Stary Oskol which then makes its way down to Stanytsia Luhanska.

This is also one of the primary rail route bringing ammunition and supplies to Belgorod.

#OSINT #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine #Russia
#railway #ogistics

These strikes are likely the beginning of a campaign by the AFU/GUR/SBU to degrade the Russian military of supplies and destroy critical infrastructure that will negatively impact Russia's ability to support a large-scale offensive in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

Icons in Orange are what was struck last night.
Icons in red are railroad bridges.
The black lines are Russian Rail and occupied Ukrainian rail
The green lines are occupied Ukrainian rail being utilized currently by the Russian military.

Reminder 86% of Russian freight rail is moved along electrified rail. No electricity, no train movement, which means no supplies going to the front.

About time Ukraine starts attacking Russian Rail and going after the ZHV.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/589x612/image_54e0f4ab689841b64b82ff6c2710c31c5d3973c0.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/540x813/image_562327af51e8c9f76a1a72cba8616014a1bdbca4.png
​​​​​​​

[airsound]

Thanks ORAC!

airsound

[NutLoose]

A more realistic (in my eyes) casualty and deaths estimate for the Russian forces issued by France rather than the figures pumped out by the U.K.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1786396600064942248

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1786396600064942248

[NutLoose]

This is mad.

Ukraine fights a war to protect the future of the world’s liberal democratic values, it is often treated as collateral damage. Ukraine has only been given enough support to sustain the front line, not to win the war. Believing that Russians are the answer to winning this war doesn’t help Ukraine.

The West’s fascination with Russia will have to end eventually, but every moment spent fixated on the concept of the “good Russian” buys the Kremlin time to rearm, regroup, kill more Ukrainians, and move further into Europe.

Let’s be clear: If Ukraine falls, Russia will move further into Europe. I and other Ukrainians have repeated this countless times, only to be dismissed as “melodramatic” and “traumatized.” We have the most experience in dealing with an aggressor that the rest of the world is just starting to discover.

Russia is not the solution to Russia; Ukraine is. If Ukraine falls on your watch, there will no longer be a solution.


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1786427772304326988

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1786427772304326988

​​​​​​​https://kyivindependent.com/daryna-shevchenko-the-russian-people-are-not-the-solution-to-the-war/ (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1786427772304326988)

[NutLoose]

:sad: Respect..

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1786454638645948478

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1786454638645948478

[Wokkafans]

Great that the crew managed to walk away - it just shows the importance of having crew survivability built in. There are conflicting reports on how the tank was taken out of action after it hit an ATM - various suggestions of laser-guided artillery and/or drones (Lancet and FPV).

"The M1 Abrams tank was disabled after its tracks were destroyed likely by an anti-tank mine. Then there were two artillery strikes, one missed and the other one hit it.

The crew managed to escape and it was an FPV drone which actually destroyed the tank."

https://Twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1786734857147551870

https://Twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1786734857147551870

[Low average]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1786667385505693763?t=RHKdkYniUnc6-LIZSD7m2Q&s=19

Interesting update. Russia had better hope their meat waves don't start demanding a payrise! Could get real pricey, real quick.

[NutLoose]

So you call up a Ukrainian from the occupied regions into the Russian army and he successfully kills 6…. He successfully destroys an artillery battalions headquarters, killing amongst the dead the company commander…. Apparently.


What a man, he deserves one of the highest Ukrainian awards, as the headquarters and staff he killed were Russian. :ok:

Belgorod PR
​​​​​​​ Today a defector, “Private Galushko Yu.N.”, had shot six of his colleagues, including the commander. He then fired control shots in the head and heart and then ran away. He was a local from one of the liberated areas. After the arrival of the Russian Federation, he signed a contract and joined the ranks of the russian armed forces. - reports the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation.


https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1786825143639064933

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1786825143639064933

[NutLoose]

Payback.

​​​​​https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1785402043080876130​​

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1785402043080876130

[NutLoose]

Russia has managed to hit Belogrod again.


https://twitter.com/search?q=Belgorod&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/search?q=Belgorod&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

[NutLoose]

More fires in moscow

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1786110198995668997

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1786110198995668997

[NutLoose]

A Russian repair base has been hit, along with Mariupol

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1786097673361117375

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1786097673361117375

[ORAC]

:ouch::ouch:

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1786794716194861238?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


This is what i have been saying... there was never any large pile of gear in europe ready to go to ukraine...

iIt will take months to years to get the aid that was just passed.. The administration is making sure that they are taking there time to give ukraine just enough gear to keep them from falling apart no mater how much the congress gives them..

They had no intent of ever using the lend lease, The 4 billion draw down money, and now they are slow walking the 61 billion...
People need to understand that this admin does not want ukraine to outright win.

I’m sad to have to keep saying this, but its now up to europe to win this war.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/3/7454180/
​​​​​​​

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x604/image_f089d78a5a180c0c6e64117a1b60b32872a75c4e.png

[ORAC]

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1786542099145383941?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The USAF has announced a contract to equip Ukrainian JDAM-ERs with Home-on GPS Jam seekers.

This should enable Ukrainian Air Force strike aircraft to target Russian GPS jammers near the front, allowing other GPS guided munitions like GMLRS and 155mm Excalibur to hit targets.

https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine

[ORAC]

https://rubryka.com/en/2023/03/10/yaponiyi-rozglyadaye-mozhlyvist-eksportu-zbroyi-do-ukrayiny-proponuyut-peredaty-rszv/

Japan considers weapon exports to Ukraine

Japan is considering exporting weapons to countries fighting an invasion, such as Ukraine.

According to Nikkei Asia (https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Japan-weighs-weapon-exports-to-nations-under-invasion), Japan has only sent bulletproof vests and other nonlethal equipment to Ukraine. Under current rules, Tokyo can only transfer warplanes, armored vehicles, and missiles to countries that jointly develop and produce the hardware.

The government and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have floated the idea of expanding the number of countries eligible for arms exports. Under the changes, nations attacked by invading forces would qualify.

"Expanded military exports will be a key political tool for assisting countries that have suffered aggression in violation of international law," Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said earlier…..

LDP upper-house lawmaker Masahisa Sato proposed to send multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine. The government and the ruling coalition are expected to start a debate on arms exports as soon as local elections in April.

[NutLoose]

Possible strike on Iskander launchers in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1786840262829838399

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1786840262829838399

[NutLoose]

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x1200/image_cc7aa89151bc1f766672c4827caebadd408be8eb.jpeg

[NutLoose]

Another SU-25 shot down :)

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1786823495239799164

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1786823495239799164

[Timmy Tomkins]

N Korean missiles killing in Ukraine and filed with western computer chips
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68933778

[wondering]

N Korean missiles killing in Ukraine and filed with western computer chips
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68933778

About time the US sends all 1200 ATACMS which need to be disposed off to Ukraine. And let Ukraine decide which targets to hit.

[NutLoose]

More WW3 rhetoric from Putin, that line of bull**** ceased to be effective some three years ago.

Russia issues WW3 'retaliation' warning to London over Crimea BridgeRussia has sent a direct warning of "an indestructible blow of retaliation" to Ukrainian allies after they supposedly planned strikes on Crimea.

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the Crimean Bridge is "again under attack". The bridge links Russia with the Crimean Peninsula, which it illegally annexed in 2014.



https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-issues-ww3-retaliation-warning-to-london-over-crimea-bridge/ar-AA1o8Om5?ocid=socialshare&pc=HCTS&cvid=4a59ed47d72b42d58a2aa0e0071c9d70&ei=26

[KeyPilot]

More WW3 rhetoric from Putin, that line of bull**** ceased to be effective some three years ago.




https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-issues-ww3-retaliation-warning-to-london-over-crimea-bridge/ar-AA1o8Om5?ocid=socialshare&pc=HCTS&cvid=4a59ed47d72b42d58a2aa0e0071c9d70&ei=26

You are right, Nutty, many countries (UK, France, Finland, Poland, Baltics) now reject Putin's previously successful "reflexive control" over their policy decisions.

It seems the US and Germany are yet to break free.

[KeyPilot]

It does indeed seem EITHER that there is a psyops in play over the Kerch Bridge, OR that something is indeed afoot. Lots of "nudge nudge, wink wink" comments by people who might know. And that war criminal Zakharova now brings it up.

Guess we shall find out soon... I am keeping a bottle cold (& fingers crossed) for some good news!!

[Video Mixdown]

Russia has been far too successful in decreeing that it alone has the right to conduct and support military operations in Ukraine but nobody else can. Anything that disabuses them of that belief is all to the good. Similarly they whine about Western supplied weapons being used against them, but have no problem attacking Ukrainian targets using Korean, Iranian and Chinese supplied weapons. Drop the bridge - permanently. Let it serve as a monument to Russian hubris, weakness and stupidity.

[NutLoose]

No wonder they dream of being meat for the grinder.

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1787041145534484833

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1787041145534484833

[FUMR]

In all fairness we should probably feel sorry for these people. Because of their poor education, poverty and alcoholism they have no idea they will be heading for near certain death. I would prefer it to be a higher percentage from the top of the ladder.

[Xeptu]

It doesnt go un-noticed the shi#t hole they live in the back ground either.

For Orac, it has always been up to Europe to deal with Russia. Europe can be greatful it wasn't against NATO countries on multiple fronts before exposing Europes unpreparedness. That may have had a very different outcome, when Russia had the manpower and equipment to do it. Ukraine has done NATO countries a great service.

[BlankBox]

France stepping up?

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/france-sends-combat-troops-to-ukraine-battlefront/

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787051046042206542?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Kyiv may ask the EU to send troops to Ukraine if the situation on the front worsens

The Ukrainian authorities may ask European allies to send troops to the front if Kyiv lacks its own forces, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko has said.

"If the situation at the front shows us that Ukraine cannot stop Putin on its own, without European military support and troops, yes, I believe it is absolutely possible that we can ask," he said.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/lci/status/1786785416676335775?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Uberteknik]

Kyiv may ask the EU to send troops to Ukraine if the situation on the front worsens

The Ukrainian authorities may ask European allies to send troops to the front if Kyiv lacks its own forces, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko has said.

"If the situation at the front shows us that Ukraine cannot stop Putin on its own, without European military support and troops, yes, I believe it is absolutely possible that we can ask," he said.
They can ask.

[ORAC]

Don’t ask - don’t get….

Changing subject…. Video.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1787047553223016614?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian boat full of infantry hits an anti-landing mine "YaRM" which was installed by drone operators of the 123rd TD Brigade.

​​​​​​​Somewhere in the Dnipro river, Kherson region.

[NutLoose]

Rheinmetall to send advanced prototype artillery shell to Ukraine with a 100km range.

Rheinmetall is set to deliver a substantial number of regular artillery shells to Ukraine this year, along with prototypes capable of reaching 100 kilometers, as revealed by Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/rheinmetalls_ceo_reveals_germany_will_send_ukraine_advanced_ prototypes_reaching_100_kilometers_alongside_regular_artille ry_ammunition-10404.html

[NutLoose]

A Russian fast attack boat destroyed. Film in link.


Thanks to the efforts of the Group 13 unit of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, russian fast attack craft was neutralized by the Magura V5 maritime drone. This successful operation in Vuzka Bay, within Crimea’s temporarily occupied territory, was achieved with assistance from the United24 platform.

The ongoing combat against russian fast maneuvering military vessels illegally present in Ukrainian territorial waters in Crimea stems from Ukrainian attacks, which have forced russia to keep large Black Sea fleet vessels at a distance from the peninsula.

​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_neutralizes_russian_fast_attack_craft_with_the_magur a_v5_drone_video-10413.html

[NutLoose]

Russia possibly planning attacks in Europe.

European intelligence officials have warned about russia's preparations for sabotage across Europe. Assessments indicate that agents affiliated with the Kremlin are gearing up for clandestine bombings, arson, and assaults on infrastructureWhile the kremlin's agents have a history of such operations and have sporadically launched attacks in Europe in recent years, evidence suggests a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three European countries shared with the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3).

"We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased. russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage," said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence.



https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ft_intelligence_agencies_warn_russia_is_plotting_sabotage_ac ross_europe-10410.html

[Lonewolf_50]

Nutty, suspect that they have a plan for this side of the pond as well.

[Pali]

Russia possibly planning attacks in Europe.
l (https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ft_intelligence_agencies_warn_russia_is_plotting_sabotage_ac ross_europe-10410.html)

This happened in the past e.g. in Czech Vrbětice ammunition depot:
https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-republic-russia-depot-blast-gallery-expulsions/31209726.html

If I remember well the same tourists who visited Salisbury were sightseeing in Czech Republic too.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1594x938/dovolen__776fc3f9e6a8fc2a32a779f1f3ab0e4201ff7130.png

Czech titles are somehow funny double sense, it translates:
"Holiday in England was boring (otrava = poison)."
"But holiday in Czech was exciting (bomba = bomb)."

[KeyPilot]

This happened in the past e.g. in Czech Vrbětice ammunition depot:
https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-republic-russia-depot-blast-gallery-expulsions/31209726.html

If I remember well the same tourists who visited Salisbury were sightseeing in Czech Republic too.

Czech titles are somehow funny double sense, it translates:
"Holiday in England was boring (otrava = poison)."
"But holiday in Czech was exciting (bomba = bomb)."

I love the Czech language, it is very playful and subversive! (My favourite: "asimilovat" which means "to assimilate" or "probably to love"!)

I do not love that Russian agents are causing death on the streets of UK & Germany, and indeed no doubt planning and carrying out other attacks across the continent.

When oh when will our political masters wise up and intern or expel Russians or, as a BARE MINIMUM, at least stop issuing any new visas?

In the current climate, this lack of action is a disgrace. No doubt after the first major atrocity on UK/EU soil they will act. No - do it now!

[Canary Boy]

This latest speculation of attacks on countries outwith Ukr by state sponsored orc saboteurs etc is very interesting. Should it come to pass and the perps were caught (as is probable) and a definite link could be proven to the Putrid regime then, surely, that would be the ‘act of war’ that would be required to trigger a response. The BIG question - what form would such a response take? No doubt, in UK, the MI’s and the like are monitoring a LOT of characters!

[FUMR]

One thing I can almost guarantee is that any "response" would be a pathetically weak one! Me, a cynic?!

[Video Mixdown]

When oh when will our political masters wise up and intern or expel Russians or, as a BARE MINIMUM, at least stop issuing any new visas? In the current climate, this lack of action is a disgrace. No doubt after the first major atrocity on UK/EU soil they will act. No - do it now!
You are talking about the world of espionage and counter-espionage. Undoubtedly a secret war is already in progress, with the fact that such attacks have not materialised a sign of success. It's understandable to want dramatic public announcements, but there is almost certainly more to gain from keeping intelligence activities quiet rather than making a song and dance about them.

[bugged on the right]

You are talking about the world of espionage and counter-espionage. Undoubtedly a secret war is already in progress, with the fact that such attacks have not materialised a sign of success. It's understandable to want dramatic public announcements, but there is almost certainly more to gain from keeping intelligence activities quiet rather than making a song and dance about them.

Very nice VM but in the past an inquiry along those lines would bring about a tap on the nose, a wink and a veiled reply about keeping enemies close so they could be watched. Except that in so many cases they were not.

[meleagertoo]

Putain's annual May Day ego-fest will be held in Moss-cow on thursday (apparently with the French Ambassador, to his country's eternal shame, in attendance.)
Would this event be a valid or appropriate 'statement' target for UKR drones or would that be too provocative?
Presumably the vehicles in the parade would not be carrying weapons - ie stonking great solid fuel rockets in the case of the big TELs - or are the Ruzzians actually daft enough...?

[Lonewolf_50]

Would this event be a valid or appropriate 'statement' target for UKR drones or would that be too provocative?*shrugs*
We hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade; a bomb on the French ambassador seems within the allowed collateral damage criteria. :E
(Yes, for our French friends: in jest)



[NutLoose]

One thing I can almost guarantee is that any "response" would be a pathetically weak one! Me, a cynic?!

only after they hold multiple meetings debating it until they water it down to the point it is as weak as piss.

[Spunky Monkey]

It doesnt go un-noticed the shi#t hole they live in the back ground either.

For Orac, it has always been up to Europe to deal with Russia. Europe can be greatful it wasn't against NATO countries on multiple fronts before exposing Europes unpreparedness. That may have had a very different outcome, when Russia had the manpower and equipment to do it. Ukraine has done NATO countries a great service.

What a load of cr@p.
There is a difference between attacking Ukraine which has until relatively recently a government of Russian shills, with Soviet tactics, Soviet equipment and Soviet Doctrine.
And say attacking Greece on the flank or Poland in the centre.
Greece with its 28 Apaches and 170 F16s or Poland with its 50 F16s and MQ-9 Reapers. They only have to hold out for 48 hours before the rest of NATOs air assets arrive on scene in numbers. And that is with a completely surprise attack without any European armies building up in the area. Not to mention Greece's 380 Leopard tanks or Poland's 250 fighting a defensive battle that is part of their design criteria.
Europe isn't woefully unprepared, it has enough to smash Russia within a couple of weeks, it doesn't have the spare equipment to give to a third party country like Ukraine that doesn't have the training or the tactics to take this equipment into battle - yet.
What Europe is doing is revising its forces for the next 5-50 years and plugging the gap left by countries that aren't prepared to take the threats seriously like Ireland and Austria.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1787498303589855623?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


“In military terms, the SCALP is a real game changer.”

“Operation Chrysalis : how France is organising the supply of SCALP missiles to Ukraine.”

@RFI reveals the 🇲🇫 method for supplying the 🇺🇦 armed forces with SCALP cruise missiles without touching its own strategic stocks.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1787498303589855623.html
​​​​​​​

[soarbum]

France stepping up?

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/france-sends-combat-troops-to-ukraine-battlefront/

Various news outlets are now poo pooing that rumour

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-french-troops-russia-ukraine-deployed-994039088319

[Beamr]

Good read regarding how many armored fighting vehicles Russia has left in storage.
note that these figures exclude the ones in service, just the stored goods are counted.
Main take: even the "endless" soviet era stocks will run out eventually.

We nred to keep those RPG's flowing steadily to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1787571461688828049


https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1787571461688828049

[Tartiflette Fan]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html


"Moscow has switched to using overland routes in annexed eastern Ukraine to supply its front lines after repeated attacks by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge, which links mainland Russia to Crimea.

Analysis of satellite images shows that the bridge, which Russia built after annexing Crimea in 2014, has almost no traffic and may therefore no longer represent an effective military target for Ukraine’s ammunition-strapped troops, according to analysts at Molfar, Ukraine’s biggest private intelligence agency.

Images taken by satellite specialists Maxar – which have been analysed by Molfar and shared with The Independent – show that almost no military freight trains have plied the bridge’s rail line in over three months.

In that period just a single Russian freight train carrying around 55 fuel cars was seen crossing the bridge on 29 February.

There was no movement involving Russian military assets on the bridge in March or April, according to Molfar. The agency, based in Dnipro, used a combination of Maxar’s images, railcar counts and cargo identification for its analysis (https://molfar.com/en/blog/chomu-bilshe-nemae-potreby-atakuvaty-krymskyi-mist)."

If true, good news and bad news. Good that it is out-of-action, but bad that the Russkis can still keep up such heavy pressure without it: I believe though, that these attcks are principally in the East where re-supply would always be coming directly across the nearby land-border. If, as is often suggested, re-taking Crimea is the prime objective of Ukraine, then this would be made considerably easier without the quick re-supply over the bridge.

[Pali]

Kerch bridge should be destroyed because if ZSU would be able to knock down bridges on the land route it could be reactivated as a reserve option. Destroying this bridge would be also a huge moral boost for Ukraine.

[ORAC]

For size, the R-73 Archer is 9’7” long, so the USV seems to be about 20ft/6mlong.https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.

Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.

​​​​​​​
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/509x489/image_8055aef149b1e7531f3430e15cccd2fecba3a237.png

[Tartiflette Fan]

Kerch bridge should be destroyed because if ZSU would be able to knock down bridges on the land route it could be reactivated as a reserve option. Destroying this bridge would be also a huge moral boost for Ukraine.

Indeed, however this other report (below ) claims that the reason the bridge is no longer used is that it has been dasmaged in Ukrainian attacks, adding that there used to be passage of 42-46 munitions trains per day and now there are only 4-5 passenger and ordinary freight trains daily.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/ukraine-update-am-morgen-heiliger-krieg-kreml-papier-enthuellt-putins-wahren-plan-und-dessen-grosses-ziel_id_72885571.html

[kamanya]

“U.S. soldier detained in Russia and accused of stealing.

The soldier, Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, had been stationed in South Korea and traveled to Russia on his own to visit a woman.”

I would hazard a guess he had zero interest in, or appreciation for anything happening in the world and misunderstood how mail order brides work?

[albatross]

“U.S. soldier detained in Russia and accused of stealing.

The soldier, Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, had been stationed in South Korea and traveled to Russia on his own to visit a woman.”

I would hazard a guess he had zero interest in, or appreciation for anything happening in the world and misunderstood how mail order brides work?

I somehow doubt SSGT Black is the brightest light on the tree.
When you allow the little head to assume command and control from the big head bad things happen.
DSB is a dangerous condition.

I do hope that the Russians recognize him as the harmless, misguided soul he is and release him.

[KeyPilot]

I somehow doubt SSGT Black is the brightest light on the tree.
When you allow the little head to assume command and control from the big head bad things happen.
DSB is a dangerous condition.

I do hope that the Russians recognize him as the harmless, misguided soul he is and release him.

He is likely all of those things. Sadly, he is also a propaganda pawn and bargaining chip, now. Russia will exploit him all they can

[NutLoose]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html


"Moscow has switched to using overland routes in annexed eastern Ukraine to supply its front lines after repeated attacks by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge, which links mainland Russia to Crimea.

Analysis of satellite images shows that the bridge, which Russia built after annexing Crimea in 2014, has almost no traffic and may therefore no longer represent an effective military target for Ukraine’s ammunition-strapped troops, according to analysts at Molfar, Ukraine’s biggest private intelligence agency.

Images taken by satellite specialists Maxar – which have been analysed by Molfar and shared with The Independent – show that almost no military freight trains have plied the bridge’s rail line in over three months.

In that period just a single Russian freight train carrying around 55 fuel cars was seen crossing the bridge on 29 February.

There was no movement involving Russian military assets on the bridge in March or April, according to Molfar. The agency, based in Dnipro, used a combination of Maxar’s images, railcar counts and cargo identification for its analysis (https://molfar.com/en/blog/chomu-bilshe-nemae-potreby-atakuvaty-krymskyi-mist)."

If true, good news and bad news. Good that it is out-of-action, but bad that the Russkis can still keep up such heavy pressure without it: I believe though, that these attcks are principally in the East where re-supply would always be coming directly across the nearby land-border. If, as is often suggested, re-taking Crimea is the prime objective of Ukraine, then this would be made considerably easier without the quick re-supply over the bridge.

They might not be using it, but it is there and available for use if their primary route is destroyed.

[scoutah1]

He is likely all of those things. Sadly, he is also a propaganda pawn and bargaining chip, now. Russia will exploit him all they can
As Keypilot says they will exploit the idiot for all they can milk it for. In the 1960 i had brief contact with US Senior NCO s. My opinion of them was that they lacked the initiative or capabillity of a British Junior NCO. At the time I was an Infantry Senior NCO. I had hoped thigs had changed. But perhaps we should not judge them all by the actions of one.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-assassination-president-ukraine-officials-bkcrd5v57

Ukrainian colonels arrested over ‘Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky’

Ukraine said it had arrested two security officials on suspicion of plotting with Russia to assassinate President Zelensky and other senior figures in Kyiv as an inauguration “gift” for President Putin.

The SBU security service said on Tuesday that the two suspects were colonels in the State Guard of Ukraine, which is tasked with protecting the country’s leadership. It said they had worked with the FSB, the Russian intelligence agency, on a plan to take Zelensky hostage and then kill him.

Besides Zelensky, the suspects are also alleged to have targeted Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the SBU, and Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, in an operation that would have involved the use of drones, landmines and rocket launchers.

The SBU published photographs of two men being arrested, as well as what it said were weapons caches and intercepted messages between the organisers of the alleged plot. It also said the operation to assassinate Budanov had been due to take place before Orthodox Easter Sunday on May 5. It did not say when the suspects had been detained.….

The SBU also named three FSB agents that it said had orchestrated the plot, including during a meeting with one of the Ukrainian colonels in an unnamed European country. The Kremlin has not commented.….

[ORAC]

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1788094154892857441?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
"Lithuania is prepared to send its soldiers to Ukraine on a training mission", - Financial Times

Ingrida Šimonytė told the FT she had parliamentary permission to send troops to Ukraine for training purposes — something her government has floated before — but that Kyiv had not yet asked for this.

Šimonytė acknowledged that Russia would consider it a provocation, but added: “If we just thought about the Russian response, then we could not send anything. Every second week you hear that somebody will be nuked.”

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1141/image_605f7e2dd685e2cbbc8730cbe65656c97e0ea6c3.png
​​​​​​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

A German opposition politician, Roderich Kiesewetter, has said that Germany ought to support the efforts of Ukraine to recruit more soldiers by cancelling social security benefits ( Bürgergeld (https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/arbeit-statt-buergergeld-unsere-nachbarn-zeigen-wie-sie-ukrainische-fluechtlinge-integrieren_id_259918752.html) ) for the 256 000 Ukrainian men between 18 and 60 currently registered in Germany.. This seems to be something gathering momentum in different countries.

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/gruppe-zur-heimkehr-bewegen-cdu-wehrexperte-kiesewetter-buergergeld-fuer-wehrpflichtige-ukrainer-aussetzen_id_259920742.html

[Lonewolf_50]

TF, lekker92 will doubtless be along to comment on that.
Germany has taken in something like 1 million Ukrainians since the invasion of Feb 2022. That's a bit over 2% of the Ukrainian population before the conflict began. There must be some 'eligible for service' folks in there somewhere.

[Rockie_Rapier]

EU reaches deal on using profits from Russia’s frozen assets for UkraineThe EU has reached a deal to seize profits from Russia’s frozen assets to fund weapons and aid for Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) within months.

EU senior diplomats meeting on Wednesday agreed a compromise on using the estimated €4.4bn windfall profits to aid Ukraine, smoothing over a dispute about taxation and management costs in Belgium (https://www.theguardian.com/world/belgium), the country where most of the frozen assets are held.
EU reaches deal... (https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/eu-reaches-deal-on-using-profits-from-russias-frozen-assets-for-ukraine)

Euroclear, a clearing house in Brussels, holds €191bn of the €260bn of Russian Central Bank assets that were immobilised by western governments in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In February the clearing house reported €4.4bn interest on the Russian funds and forecast that the Belgian government would reap €1.085bn in taxes​​​​​​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

TF, lekker92 will doubtless be along to comment on that.
Germany has taken in something like 1 million Ukrainians since the invasion of Feb 2022. That's a bit over 2% of the Ukrainian population before the conflict began. There must be some 'eligible for service' folks in there somewhere.

Yes. As I said, 256 000 men who are within the conscriptable age range - 18 -60.. this suggestion is only an inducement to make them return. On the other hand when Ukraine recently announced that their embassies/consulates will not be renewing passports of men in this age range the German government declared that they will not be expelling any Ukrainian men for not having a valid passport, so there is currently no question of any compulsion. At least one of the Baltic states has been discussing forced removal and I can imagine that this could gain momentum, especially if Ukraine were to make a diplomatic effort to energise the movement, which they have not done so far AFAIK.

[Lonewolf_50]

and forecast that the Belgian government would reap €1.085bn in taxes​​​​​​​ Follow the money. :}

​​​​​​​TF, thanks for the follow up.

[BlankBox]

Damn!! When is too much ...never enough? :E

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/another_version_of_russian_tank_shed_with_a_new_approach_to_ armor_and_mine_warfare-10418.html

[albatross]

How much does that thing weigh?
it will put a lot of strain on tracks, suspension, engine, gearbox etc. speed may be reduced.
Not to mention it will need hard ground to move over.
Imagine getting that thing out of a ditch or mudhole.


Damn!! When is too much ...never enough? :E

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/another_version_of_russian_tank_shed_with_a_new_approach_to_ armor_and_mine_warfare-10418.html

[Beamr]

How much does that thing weigh?
it will put a lot of strain on tracks, suspension, engine, gearbox etc. speed may be reduced.
Not to mention it will need hard ground to move over.
Imagine getting that thing out of a ditch or mudhole.
Yet still, those add-ons have little to none protection against old school anti-tank weapons which always come in plural, in essence anti-tank missiles, RPG's, LAW's, HEAT etc. All the goods Ukrainians need and must be delivered as a continuous flow.

[Buster Hyman]

Imagine getting that thing out of a ditch or mudhole.
You'd need Time Team to dig it up first!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1788532820400345516?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​A video of the drone attacking the plant in Russian Salavat, Bashkiria, appeared on Russian Telegram channels.

The person who is filming says the drone is very large.

It looks like the drone flew about 1,500 km before it reached its target and hit the oiloil catalytic cracking unit.

Gazprom neftekhim Salavat is one of the largest oil refining and petrochemical production complexes in Russia. It specializes in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, and other types of petroleum products.

[ETOPS]

One of these I believe...


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/702x588/jryrymjjrfluzhrexl4iewqfa4_5227cd5605f2fd0f93dfea12394f79cae bb75957.jpg

[rans6andrew]

that would appear to be a microlight known in the UK as a SkyRanger.

Rans6.................

[ORAC]

Skyranger Nynja…

https://theaviationist.com/2024/04/26/close-look-at-ukr-kamikaze-drone/


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x960/image_35c74dfbaa06e8560b3c0f849fed4de1618b0c23.png

[uffington sb]

But how could it fly1,500km over Russia without being detected ?
it’s not exactly speedy.

[minigundiplomat]

But how could it fly1,500km over Russia without being detected ?
it’s not exactly speedy.

ask Mathius Rust - he managed to land a Cessna in Red Square at the height of the Cold War.

[ETOPS]

Design clearly based on the Skyranger.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30642

Ideal for evading ground based detection - too small too slow and little mass...

[Ninthace]

Not good news
Ukraine sends reinforcements to Kharkiv region to repel Russian advances
More reports are coming to us on the situation in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine defence ministry said on Friday that it has sent military reinforcements to help repel Russian attacks in border areas of the Kharkiv region in the northeast.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/10/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-mikhail-mishustin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-bodyguard

[B Fraser]

Design clearly based on the Skyranger.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30642

Ideal for evading ground based detection - too small too slow and little mass...

The power to weight ratio is rather good, Not enough time between releasing the brake and getting airborne to glance and check that the speedo is working :ooh:

[wondering]

Russia’s killer Lancet drone runs on American AI

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/russias-killer-lancet-drone-runs-on-american-ai/

This whole globalization thing went too far. The West is defeating itself. What ever happened to COCOM?

[Herod]

A killer drone called Nynja. Very appropriate :D

[jolihokistix]

Russian forces have crossed the border and advanced one kilometer into the Kharkiv region according to NHK news.

[KeyPilot]

I don't think that aircraft is actually a Skyranger (of French origin). These tube-and-canvas ultralights are pretty derivative, the Ukrainians could easily design/modify one to their requirements & build domestically.

[Lonewolf_50]

Russian forces have crossed the border and advanced one kilometer into the Kharkiv region according to NHK news. No worries mate, the F-16s will handle that.

(If you didn't notice the sarcasm dripping from your screen ... for about a year and a half the "send me Vipers" noise went on and on. What problem are you trying to solve? The Vipers will in due course have a role to play, but it isn't magic).

[KeyPilot]

I don't think that aircraft is actually a Skyranger (of French origin). These tube-and-canvas ultralights are pretty derivative, the Ukrainians could easily design/modify one to their requirements & build domestically.

They could also save pretty heavily on construction/materials, given that each airframe only has to be used once!

[Herod]

I don't know about construction/materials, but they will certainly save on maintenance! No tech log write-ups to fix.

[sycamore]

You could use bamboo for some parts..

[KeyPilot]

You could use bamboo for some parts..

Indeed!

We saw these Aussie mini-drones made of waxed cardboard, which is somewhat analogous.

This is a very curious war... positional trench warfare a la WWI, with an array of high- and low-tech innovations, many of which neve seen before on the battlefield. It will be written about and analysed for decades to come. We might be witnessing a secular change in the nature of warfare itself.

Or not. Time - and the identity of the victor, and nature of victory - will tell

[ORAC]

Major new Russian offensive across the border underway near Kharkiv, towns in between being evacuated, Ukrainian reinforcements being rushed to the area.

US supplying additional emergency HIMSRS from US army stocks.

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1788972243004924139?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://x.com/christopherjm/status/1789021786035610049?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-reinforcements-after-russian-forces-attack-kharkiv-region-2024-05-10/
​​​​​​​https://x.com/colbybadhwar/status/1789038029459353754?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[Lookleft]

According to Ukrainian sources quoted on the BBC the incursion has been stopped.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pyv8q94g1o

Hopefully the West doesn't conflate current Ukrainian weakness due to the reduced supply of weapons with Russian superiority in strategy and tactics. All the recent Russian advances have done is elevate Pukin's domestic political capital. Give the Ukrainians the ammo, weapons and supplies to GTBJD.

[jolihokistix]

Sacrificial probing attacks to find out where and how the Ukrainian defences are located...

[ORAC]

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1789099111339155770?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Group N, or Group North, is starting to form on the northern border area of Ukraine...

it will be in 3 groups, from reports probably with the following force:

Bryansk force - 8500 troops, probably 2 brigades or regiments.

Group Kursk - 10,800 troops, 3 brigades or 3 regiments.

Group Belogorod - 31,200, probably..

A combined arms army with a division and a brigade of infantry,
another infantry brigade,
SF brigade or airborne brigade,
TD regiment,
artillery brigade,
rocket brigade,
service and support brigade.

Currently this unit HAS NOT FORMED!!!!

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x689/image_c5a3f0dc885224e0a51ebfd12f6ee1d025a355ea.png

Recently Group North was assigned the new commander….

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/639x678/image_6853a7297cbfa699eed37c519106dab493508fdc.png

[ORAC]

Russian Duma wants to assign 2 hectares of land from each of the occupied territories to those taking part in the SMO.

Seems a bit excessive for a grave, but maybe they mean to grow a lot of sunflowers……

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1788937602755621049?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Spunky Monkey]

I have noticed a lot on Twitter recently that Russian troops of all ranks are wearing UK pattern camo, as in the image above.
I do wonder if this is Chinese knock offs or if they have access to ex UK stock, or they are being supplied by the same companies.
If its the latter, then these companies need to loose their contracts.

[ORAC]

ISW:

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1788943422239146094?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian forces have begun the first stage of an operation in Kharkiv Oblast that advances multiple Russian objectives. Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City. 🧵(1/3)

Available evidence indicates that the initial Russian attacks are reconnaissance in force and not yet a major drive to seize Kharkiv City.

This operation seeks to advance the following Russian objectives:

1⃣ Fix Ukrainian forces across the theater to thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk Oblast.

2⃣ Draw Ukrainian forces towards Vovchansk to facilitate Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize Kupyansk, which has stalled in the past six months.

3⃣ Create a “demilitarized” or “sanitary” buffer zone in Ukraine as the Kremlin has explicitly sought since early 2024.

4⃣ Instill panic in Ukraine.

5⃣ The operation also can set conditions for a larger future offensive operation on Kharkiv City.

2/ Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City.

Open-source information indicates that Russian forces likely have roughly 50,000 troops in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts – a force insufficient to seize Kharkiv City.

The current geographic extent of the reported attacks on the morning of 10 MAY from Vovchansk to Hoptivka is notably narrow and centered on the northeast of Kharkiv.

If the Russian command intended to seize Kharkiv City, then Russian forces would have likely also attacked to the west and northwest of Kharkiv City as well.

3/ Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv Oblast.

Russia’s use of Russian airspace for these attacks highlights the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.

Ukraine would be better able to defend Kharkiv Oblast if Ukrainian air defenders could intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace before they drop their glide bombs.

[ORAC]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries

Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries


https://x.com/tendar/status/1788866415560097998?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Tendar:

Just like I predicted and assessed the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia's oil refining industry as being extremely effective, the magazine "Foreign Affairs" confirms my assessment.

Hitting Russian refining infrastructure only brings benefits with little or even no risks. Russia's loss of refining products even pushes the Russian regime to extend crude oil exports and by doing so rather even pushing down crude oil prices, because it cannot store oil in large quantities.

Shutting down oil wells is even more expensive. Repairs are costly, sometimes not feasible as well as time-consuming. Spare parts are in most cases on sanction lists.

While oil prices worldwide are unaffected by the Ukrainian campaign, prices for refined oil products in Russia are rising. Aside from a higher strain for the war industry as well as for the army (logistics chains are getting even longer), it will actually cause much higher inflation as Russia has already.

Due to the re-import of refined oil products, Russia will be exposed to normal market prices, which for the average Russian, who never had to experience anything like this in the past - neither in the Soviet Union nor even in the 1990s - will come as a shock.

What the news magazine forgot to mention is the political strain.

Russian oligarchs are increasingly losing money on an epic scale. The Putin system, however, is based on two pillars: favors and force. It was quite common that Putin compensated oligarchs for loyalty when those got hit by foreign sanctions, but those means are not infinite, especially during war. The less favors can be used, the more the regime has to use force, which in return will have a backlash.

In the end, more and more people in the systems will silently question the soundness of Russia suicidal path and might feel increasingly inclined to ditch the dictator in the Kremlin. The fragile scale is getting out of balance.

Either way, it only proves that Ukraine's air campaign against Russia's refining industry is an excellent strategy to exert massive pain against the the Russian regime and population.

​​​​​​​It is not a fast weapon, though we can already see the first side effects, but it is merciless one, which will yield tremendous results over a foreseeable period of time.

​​​​​​​ In the end, Ukraine's air campaign has evolved into the most effective sanction against Russia. It is unlikely and would be unwise to give up on this.

[Sallyann1234]

ORAC, many thanks for keeping up your invaluable commentary. I trust that your other current activities will not inhibit this.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/megatron_ron/status/1789248897468014661?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


JUST IN:🇺🇦🇷🇺 Brutаl Ukrainian HIMARS attасk against Donetsk where the city was preparing a celebration, 10 years of independence from Ukraine.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/padresss/status/1789249587472892002?s=12


Employees of Russian security forces and collaborators organized event dedicated to the 10th anniversary of the beginning of the occupation of Ukrainian Donetsk.
​​​​​​​
HIMARS paid a visit to the event too.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1789258731034644862?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​ On the night of May 11, GUR drones attacked the "Lukoil" oil refinery, - source of UP in GUR.

❗️ The primary oil processing facilities AVT-1 and AVT-6, control cable of the air coolers was damaged and smoke pipe of the P-1 furnace were damaged.

[ORAC]

Russian SU-25 downed in Donetsk.

https://x.com/lxsummer1/status/1789304943150543115?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Ukrainian military shot down a russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Avdiiv direction - mass media.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1789289624524763195?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


UK to deliver largest military aid package to Ukraine worth £500 million

The package will include:

- 4 million rounds of ammunition;
- more than 1600 missiles;
- 400 vehicles, including 160 Husky MRAPs;
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/deaidua/status/1789040929564758481?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Things are moving fast! Spoke to Colby about this, and he said it might be possible that the three German-financed M142 HIMARS are in Ukraine within the next 24h if they are already in Poland.

​​​​​​​A couple of days if they have to fly them from the US to Poland.

[ORAC]

Warning! Russian soldier suicide……

https://x.com/gloooud/status/1789366009536696462?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Instead of surrendering, the 🇷🇺Russian invader made a better choice...

[ORAC]

Video https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789267539282850280?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Kharkiv direction. Bombardment of Russian tanks with the help of the Ukrainian night bomber drones. Deepstate:

“Targeting of Russian equipment in the area of ​​Hatyshche, Kharkiv region….

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ryszardjonski/status/1789286838428893289?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Boeing is talking with the Polish Air Force and the Armament Agency about selling two squadrons of F-15EX heavy multi-role fighters to Poland.
In April, Boeing representatives came with an industrial cooperation team to assess the possibilities of making investments in Poland, as well as cooperation with the Polish industry.

​​​​​​​Info source: https://defence24-pl.translate.goog/przemysl/f-15ex-z-polskimi-czesciami-i-serwisem-trwaja-rozmowy?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

[ORAC]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1789576803738353886?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russia: KalugaNefteProdukt oil refinery in Volgograd attacked by Ukrainian drones.

Novolipetsk Steel plant also attacked.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789531224647598280?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[jolihokistix]

God give the defending Ukrainians strength against the Orcs.

"Manyana" does not cut the mustard.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/mykhailorohoza/status/1789408499413225822?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


In Germany, it was proposed to shoot down drones over the west of Ukraine by the air defense of NATO countries.

"This will relieve the Ukrainian air defense and allow it to defend the front," CDU spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter said. In particular, Poland and Romania can do this.

Members of the German parliament from the government's "Greens" and "Free Democrats"also supported this idea.

As an example, they recalled Israel, which in April was helped by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to repel a massive air attack by Iran and its proxy.

​​​​​​​

[jolihokistix]

Ukraine needs a 15 km wide buffer zone inside 'Russia', as Turkey has in Syria.

[Tartiflette Fan]

In Germany, it was proposed to shoot down drones over the west of Ukraine by the air defense of NATO countries.

"This will relieve the Ukrainian air defense and allow it to defend the front," CDU spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter said. In particular, Poland and Romania can do this.

Members of the German parliament from the government's "Greens" and "Free Democrats"also supported this idea.

As an example, they recalled Israel, which in April was helped by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to repel a massive air attack by Iran and its proxy.



It seems an intelligent suggestion. It would give the frontier forces real practice and any objections the Russkis might utter would be utter nonsense and easily dismissed. The only question might be the expense of the missiles, as I imagine the attacking missiles/drones wouldn't be routed particularly close to the borders, so much more expensive, longer-range missiles might be necessary. On a cost/benefit analysis, probably better to supply lots more shorter range missiles to Ukraine.

[konstantin]

ORAC thank you for that article.
Had read about the Kovalchuk brigade too, previously, that makes it even more interesting in terms of overall dynamics?
:)

[Beamr]

I believe UKR has reached new record since February 2022: 1740 KIA/WIA orcs in 24 hours. 500k is closing fast.
Other numbers are very high as well, eg. 31 tanks and 4 MLRS

Russkies don't care for people, but noteworthy is that Russia has lost more APV's and MBT's than they have left in storage. Keep those drones, Javelins and NLAW's flowing!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1789890827868573725

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1789890827868573725

[Lonewolf_50]

Source is a story in Business Insider.


A Ukrainian commander complained that promised defenses in Kharkiv are missing, per the BBC.
Denys Yaroslavskyi called the lack of defense like mines a "betrayal," blaming corruption or negligence.
Russia has launched a renewed assault on Kharkiv, with an estimated 35,000 troops pushing on the northern front.a

Some of the details.
The commander of a Ukrainian reconnaissance unit said defenses in Kharkiv have been lacking as Russia tries to push into the region, blaming corruption or negligence from officials. "There was no first line of defense," Denys Yaroslavskyi told the BBC, (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo)which reported from Vovchansk on Sunday. "We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields."

Jonathan Beale, a defense correspondent at the outlet, wrote that Yaroslavskyi showed him drone footage of Russian troops walking past Ukraine's northeastern border without resistance. Yaroslavskyi, who heads a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, told the BBC that at least some defenses promised by officials were missing in Kharkiv (https://www.businessinsider.com/kharkiv-needs-more-patriot-air-defenses-stop-russian-strikes-zelenskyy-2024-4).

"Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn't a failure. It was a betrayal," he said, per the outlet.
He and his men were set to deploy to the front line in Vovchansk at the time of the BBC's report. The Armed Forces of Ukraine's General Staff press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

Lying on Kharkiv's northeastern border, Vovchansk is one of Ukraine's closest cities to the Russian region of Belgorod (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-anti-putin-group-freedom-legion-said-behind-attack-belgorod-2023-12). Kharkiv saw months of heavy fighting in the early stages of the war, when Russian forces initially seized it but were later rebuffed by Kyiv (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-celebrates-victory-in-retaking-parts-of-kharkiv-region-2022-9). Now, Russia is trying to re-establish a foothold in the region through a new offensive, claiming this weekend to capture several border villages.

Days earlier, Ukrainian military observers reported that between 30,000 to 35,000 Russian troops (https://t.me/zloyodessit/21676%C2%A0;%C2%A0https://isw.pub/UkrWar051024%C2%A0;) had gathered for the push. Oleksandr Syrskyi, chief of Ukraine's armed forces, said on Sunday that the situation in Kharkiv had "significantly worsened."
"Currently, there are ongoing battles in the border areas along the state border with the Russian Federation," Syrskyi wrote in a message on Telegram. (https://t.me/osirskiy/689)

[ORAC]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789993157070897605?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Claimed hits on the Russian radar site on the mountain Ai-Petri, Crimea as a result of this mornings Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes.

The fact of the attack is confirmed by Russian sources as well, however the targeted locations and damage is not mentioned.

Some media claims:

“Russian air defense military base on Mount Ai-Petri was damaged as a result of the morning missile attack on Crimea. The commander of the military unit died.”

“Today, May 13, at around 6 am, several missiles (presumably Storm Shadow) attacked military unit 85683 on Ai-Petri in Crimea, On the mountain there is a military air defense base of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.

As a result of the missile hit, the territory of the military unit was damaged, the commander of military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov, and another serviceman were killed. There are also wounded, their number is being determined.”

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/911x683/image_81c9433cf9be89c0f562dcc0a136b589d872422b.png

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x427/image_56b8573562ef1220e56977584ba09874f1dffcdb.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x529/image_e44d550f7167977e90e7b06536a91b5c34efe788.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier…

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1789963310193913942?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

Russia's First Channel openly urges Russian servicemen "not to wait for the drone" but to commit suicide themselves!

"The significance of life is exaggerated," the propagandist argues. And he says that killing yourself on the battlefield is not suicide, but sacrifice.

[ORAC]

Yuriy Butusov's assessment of the situation in Kharkiv oblast.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/677x1060/image_666d4fc872908390474dbe39f37e66486ead0b47.png

[Herod]

"The significance of life is exaggerated," I beg to differ, and I bet if someone had a gun to his head he would differ too.

[Beamr]

Danish PM Mette Fredriksen says that the ex-Danish Vipers will be at Ukraines disposal within a month. Better late than...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1790077155126182092

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1790077155126182092

[WideScreen]

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier…



Russia's First Channel openly urges Russian servicemen "not to wait for the drone" but to commit suicide themselves!

"The significance of life is exaggerated," the propagandist argues. And he says that killing yourself on the battlefield is not suicide, but sacrifice.
Looks like Japan at the end of WW2, preparing the service men and the population for the martyrdom, or like so many of the fundamentalist Islam devotees.

[Beamr]

parental advisory: blood and burned flesh visible in the video.
But this gives (once again) a very good idea why drones are very efficient and should be made standard kit with every branch. Octodrones used to drop AT mines in front of advancing enemy column and the results are astonishing.
Fast, efficient and a truly a surprise element.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1790126877459243102

[ORAC]

https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1790124304962564330?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Estonia is giving serious thought to dispatching troops to Ukraine. It's crucial for one brave nation to take the lead for others to follow suit.

Estonia is actively discussing the potential deployment of troops to western Ukraine for non-direct combat roles, aiming to support Ukrainian forces on the front lines.

The government is presently analyzing the potential decision, and while Estonia would ideally prefer to execute this action as part of a comprehensive NATO mission to demonstrate unified strength and resolve, it remains open to the possibility of smaller coalition involvement.

Discussions within Estonia regarding troop deployment to Ukraine highlight the complexities of international support for Ukraine. This move could have far-reaching implications for the conflict.

It would be highly beneficial if Estonia took this step. A single country must display courage for others to follow suit. The troops could be deployed to provide training for Ukrainian forces and potentially free up troops from the west to move closer to the front lines.

source:

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/estonia-seriously-discussing-sending-troops-to-rear-jobs-in-ukraine-official/

​​​​​​​

[FUMR]

Estonia is giving serious thought to dispatching troops to Ukraine. It's crucial for one brave nation to take the lead for others to follow suit.

Estonia is actively discussing the potential deployment of troops to western Ukraine for non-direct combat roles, aiming to support Ukrainian forces on the front lines.

The government is presently analyzing the potential decision, and while Estonia would ideally prefer to execute this action as part of a comprehensive NATO mission to demonstrate unified strength and resolve, it remains open to the possibility of smaller coalition involvement.

Discussions within Estonia regarding troop deployment to Ukraine highlight the complexities of international support for Ukraine. This move could have far-reaching implications for the conflict.

It would be highly beneficial if Estonia took this step. A single country must display courage for others to follow suit. The troops could be deployed to provide training for Ukrainian forces and potentially free up troops from the west to move closer to the front lines.

source:

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/estonia-seriously-discussing-sending-troops-to-rear-jobs-in-ukraine-official/



​​​​​​​I'm all for it. It will however possibly lead to an escalation of the situation. Damned if you do and damned if you don't!

[Beamr]

Germany to provide another Patriot system to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1790314583845941502

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1790314583845941502

[Beamr]

A good opportunity to combine aviation, soviet engineering and Russian natural resources into one post.

Russian BMD's are built from aluminium in order to make it possible to airdrop it with crew inside.
This BMD-3 has been destroyed, the aluminium hull caught fire, the aluminium burnt away and the turret (made of steel) dropped through the hull.

It's a write off once hit, no need to tow to a repair shop.

https://twitter.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1790442472692183161

https://twitter.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1790442472692183161

[NutLoose]

More recently retired (2023) Scimitar’s to Ukraine.

https://www.army-technology.com/features/ukraine-donations-offer-new-lease-of-life-to-british-armys-scimitar-light-tank/?cf-view

[ORAC]

👍👍👍

https://x.com/ostapyarysh/status/1790454002263482450?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken performs“Rocking to the Free World” in a bar in Kyiv.

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970

Ukraine presses Biden to lift ban on using US weapons to strike Russia

Kyiv watched as Russians massed on the border, but they weren’t allowed to use long-range missiles provided by Washington.

[Wokkafans]

UK supplied Brimstone in use recently in Ukraine.

https://x.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1790449278290157929

​​​​​​​https://x.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1790449278290157929

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1790675232656666826?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Reportedly, this is a video of a missile attack on Belbek military airfield in Russian-occupied Crimea. Video posted by Russian Telegram channels.

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1790715938616053774?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


"Bad news from Sevastopol": Russian "military correspondents" complain about reported losses after the attack on the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea.

One of them wrote:

"Bad news from Sevastopol. We have lost airplanes, air defense and military. As a result of shelling Sevastopol with ATASMS missiles, we have unfortunately suffered serious losses.

“The enemy hit the aircraft at Belbek airfield, one MiG-31 was lost, completely destroyed. Three Su-27s were damaged, they were hit by sub-munitions from missiles. We are now finding out if they can be repaired. We hope so,” a Defense Ministry source told us.

“Two air defense launchers (S-300 and S-400) and a radar were also lost. Unfortunately, 11 military personnel were killed.”

Waiting for official confirmation.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/mila__alien/status/1790748587363557701?s=12
It is stated that this is the result of a night missile attack on the Belbek airfield.

The destroyed car in the photo looks like the 92N6E radar from the S-400 air defense system. There is also a PU 5P85 in the background.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x804/image_004d1b248bd142fa445321a578b2f39a7ad672cb.png

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x803/image_99741fdca818b27cd2a3356d143e865644f53bb8.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x803/image_3df6bfb76a10b471c5b3d960d8cbe7c14aa37f27.png
​​​​​​​

[Beamr]

Russian version of a motivational speech.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1790774016652804413

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1790774016652804413

[ORAC]

Airfields in Crimea under attack for the second day in a row, following the destruction of their S-300 & S-400 defences.

At least 10 ATACMs reported as having been used…

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1790861735936553408?s=12


​​​​​​​https://x.com/tendar/status/1790850222228140406?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​https://x.com/world_at_war_6/status/1790840941177139678?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

They seem to be hammering the airfields on a now daily basis.

This may be linked to a report from last month - last link below….

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1790983793316114896?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
According to some reports by Crimean Telegram channels, last night there was a direct hit to the main Russian warehouse of missile and artillery weapons where most of the missiles for the Su-27, Su-30 and MiG-31 aircraft were stored in occupied Crimea.

Waiting for official information.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790996812737728718?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​ "2 MiG-31, S-400 and a warehouse of fuel and lubricants were destroyed at the Belbek military airfield this night. 2 Russian servicemen were killed, 13 were injured", - ASTRA

​​​​​​​https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1782944547443716524?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Major Yuri Shvets, KGB defector:

The United States finally concluded that Russia must suffer a devastating defeat in Ukraine. 1,000+ long-range ATACMS (300km+) allocated for Ukraine are in Europe for over a month already.

The US arrived at this conclusion because of the realization that no negotiations are possible with Putin or his potential successors. What remains now is the strategy to achieve the objective. Ukraine also already received several hundred Storm Shadow missiles from Britain.

Both long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles are strategic weapons, not "defensive weapons." Shvets claims there will not be conditions for target selection for Ukraine on the use of these strategic missiles. Strategic objective to make Crimea "untenable" appears key.…

[ORAC]

Russian losses increasing as they continue to try and advance in the north-east to establish a border buffer zone*.

A lot of discussion of their “meat wave” tactics as if they have a choice. They don’t have the massed artillery they used to have to support the infantry, and the range of the artillery they do have puts it inside drone range. They don’t have the training cadre to train troops at home - so recruits are given a uniform, shipped to the front and told to advance towards the sound of guns.

At this rate the 65,000 troops they reportedly had to form this new army will all be dead in around 3 weeks, less if you discount support troops.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1088/image_75dd33b3a98fdfa529e694acc2ea1c7f783aa589.png

* https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1790906534064504881?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[safetypee]

Russian army using Morse Code

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-the-russian-army-is-still-using-morse-code-more-than-a-century-after-its-invention-228227?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest from The Conversation for May 16 2024 - 2971130210&utm_content=Latest from The Conversation for May 16 2024 - 2971130210+CID_e1fe20877473429439a5b214aab48a8a&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Ukraine war why the Russian army is still using morse code more than a century after its invention


Also

Bi weekly review 'Ukraine Recap', and previous newsletters.

https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+Newsletter+Ukraine+Recap+2022+Mar&utm_content=WeeklyRecapBottom

and Maps
https://theconversation.com/how-maps-are-used-and-abused-in-times-of-conflict-227077?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Ukraine%20recap%20-%209%20May%202024&utm_content=Ukraine%20recap%20-%209%20May%202024+CID_2b47f2858202b8fe99424b8feb6d1762&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=How%20maps%20are%20used%20and%20abused%20in%20times %20of%20conflict

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1790988238313632215?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

….Following the Kremlin shakeup and the replacement of Shoigu with Belousov, a figure from the so-called "economic" or "technocratic" circles, there has been speculation about the nature of these changes and Shoigu's future role. Today, Shoigu appeared alongside Putin during his visit to China, though this isn't the main focus of our discussion. The composition of this delegation might give us a lot of critical details and its goals.

In addition to Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Peskov, and the newly appointed Belousov, the expanded Russian delegation includes:

Minister of Natural Resources and Environment,
Head of the Central Bank,
Minister of Economic Development,
Minister of Finance,
Director of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service,
CEO of Rosatom,
Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation,
First Deputy Prime Minister,
Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration

Furthermore, key representatives of businesses and oligarchs are part of the expanded delegation.

- Oleg Deripaska, oligarch and founder of RUSAL
- Igor Sechin, oligarch, CEO of Rosneft
- Herman Gref, Chairman of Sberbank's Executive Board
- Andrey Kostin, President-Chairman of VTB Bank
- Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
- Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of NOVATEK
- Igor Shuvalov, Chairman of VEB.RF
- Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP)

Such a list of decision-makers from the financial and economic sectors suggests that this delegation is not ordinary but rather an ambitious and serious effort to deepen economic and financial cooperation with China. Given the presence of the newly appointed Minister of Defense and the Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, we should also anticipate discussions on military-industrial cooperation.

This should not be dismissed as a routine event. The last time Shoigu visited North Korea, Russia received millions of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. However, unlike that delegation, this one is heavily represented by the financial and economic sectors, suggesting Russia's serious intent to address economic and financial problems caused by war.

​​​​​​​Given China's pragmatism and Russia's weakened position, successful negotiations may require significant concessions or unfavorable long-term agreements for Russia. That being said, the successful outcome of these negotiations will create problems for Ukraine regardless, as Russia is clearly aiming to outproduce the West and Ukraine.

I'll leave detailed economic discussions to specialists in their respective fields, but it's evident that this could have significant global implications and will likely have a tangible impact on the ongoing war for years to come.

[arf23]

I'd say the delegation is the Russians opening the cupboard doors and telling the Chinese to take what they want, but pretty please in return there are a few little things on a shopping list if the Chinese could see a way to helping an old friend out... reminds me of the Germans and Japanese shipping strategic materials between themselves using U boats, Far too little far too late.

I still say this war will stop when another part of the USSR rises up, or China proposes (!) taking a Soviet region or two in payment. And watch the Soldiers mum's, there will be enough not getting text messages or calls from their sons to realise their fate.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1791122103476875441?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


One of the largest ammunition plants in Russia has been nationalized in the Moscow region.

The shares of the Klimovsky ammunition plant, which previously belonged to the family of businessman Boris Krasnov, will be transferred to the Russian Federal Agency for State Property Management.

At the same time, law enforcement agencies have initiated criminal cases against persons involved in the "embezzlement" of the plant's shares between 2002 and 2010, and they are under investigation, a source in the government agencies told RBC.

Rostec, which is one of the plant's shareholders (the corporation owns a 36% stake), was satisfied with the court's decision.

In January of this year, an accident occurred at the boiler station located on the territory of the plant, as a result of which 170 houses in Podolsk were left without heating and hot water in 20-degree frosts.

​​​​​​​Roman Ryazantsev, deputy head of Podolsk's Housing and Utilities services, Alexander Chikov, head of the boiler station at the Klimovsk cartridge plant, Igor Kushnikov, general director of the plant, and Alexander Samarin, former Minister of Energy of the Moscow region, were arrested in criminal cases initiated after the accident.

The Kremlin is getting key war machine enterprises back under its full control.

[Lonewolf_50]

Both long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles are strategic weapons, More BS and hyperbole.
ATACMS is a tactical weapon -- FFS, check the name -- and at a stretch can be considered a theater level weapon. (FWIW, in US Army doctrine corps ops and below are tactical).
Strategic weapon? Think Trident...B2The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS tactical ballistic missile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_ballistic_missile) designed and manufactured by the US defense company Ling-Temco-Vought (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ling-Temco-Vought) (LTV), and later Lockheed Martin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin) through acquisitions.
Something like Tomahawk, though, straddles the line and rather muddies any clean distinction (depending on which mod).

[Spunky Monkey]

Tomahawk = Stratical? Tactegic?
Whatever it is send them to Ukraine, let them pick a target.
If its smaller, closer and moves, then its tactical.
If it's bigger, further away and stationary then it's strategic.
The bigger and further away it is the more it annoys Putes when destroyed..
:}

[Lonewolf_50]

Stractical? Isn't that a kind of dessert? :}

[wondering]

I'd say the delegation is the Russians opening the cupboard doors and telling the Chinese to take what they want, but pretty please in return there are a few little things on a shopping list if the Chinese could see a way to helping an old friend out... reminds me of the Germans and Japanese shipping strategic materials between themselves using U boats, Far too little far too late.

I still say this war will stop when another part of the USSR rises up, or China proposes (!) taking a Soviet region or two in payment. And watch the Soldiers mum's, there will be enough not getting text messages or calls from their sons to realise their fate.

Far from it. China - Russia trade was $240 Billion last year. China is obviously supporting Russian aggression on a large scale. Without China, Russia couldn't do what it is doing. And what's worse will be able to do for many years to come.

I don't see any discontent among the Russian population in the foreseeable future. Putin learned a valuable lesson from the war in Afghanistan.

https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-putin-beijing-xi-3212ef85d8318cf853f956173f3a682a

[ORAC]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1791282297309970700?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Russia: Massive attack on the port of Novorossiysk by Ukrainian drones from both sea and air. What remained of the Russian Black Sea fleet was largely stashed away in this port.

The eyewitness yells "They blew up the port!"

Port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast in Krasnodar Krai is a very target-rich location. Railroad hub, fuel depots, shipyards, and of course many Black Sea Fleet ships at anchor. Ukraine coordinated a massive attack using both naval drones + air drones.

Russia: Reports of 26 explosions already at the port of Novorossiysk as Ukrainian air & naval drones continue the massive attack right now. Currently 4:47am.….

💥 27th explosion at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea as the sun begins to rise.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1791050328239943782?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Russian media report a drone attack on a military enterprise in Russian Tula.

Reportedly, the target of the attack was most likely the production facilities of the state-owned enterprise of the Russian defense complex Basalt.

​​​​​​​ It is a key enterprise in Russia for the production of ammunition and supply of weapons for Russian ground forces, air force and navy.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/trbrtc/status/1791243531362734584?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
On @Maxar imagery, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 have been completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 damaged, at the Russian Air Force's Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea. A fuel storage near the main airbase runway was also destroyed, and debris continued to burn in the aftermath.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/625x386/image_b944d95e51f5fb8703766f550c3f3ec221a703f7.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/625x402/image_0011b78e42d837ad65a9cb2e4b6aec38b98c7452.png

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x412/image_e8b2935f2fd24fbfa5a949fec5c27e124d072c8b.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x391/image_9ff0bbdb946f2bd009e1973b160b90ee351e5a59.png

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1791306754661499243?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​ 💥 Russia: Rosneft's Tuapse Oil Refinery on fire after Ukrainian drone strikes in Krasnodar Krai on the Black Sea coast. It had a refining capacity of 240,000 barrels per day.

[Beamr]

Russian Black Sea fleet HQ in Novorossiysk has been under attack during the night. Long range weapons in good use.
Can't wait to see the results.
Slava Ukraini.

https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1791287164640043347

https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1791287164640043347

[Spunky Monkey]

These are the days I like, waking up, the sun is shinning, the birds are singing and reports of multiple strikes in multiple locations in Russia by Ukraine.
Slava Ukraine!

[Jack D]

Nice work ! Should make Putes choke on his dim sum this morning !

[ORAC]

Just to brighten up your day a bit more….

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1791406694175510965?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"

Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.

The commentary of witnesses is curious.

https://x.com/tendar/status/1791405776835059830?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The Russian city of Novorossiysk was hit harder than initial seen. This footage from local citizens documents several explosions of the oil depot, with strong secondary explosions. Ukrainian UAVs just kept on coming.

Source: Telegram / OperativnoZSU

[kamanya]

A narrated trench assault. It seems 2 platoons and several pieces of armour lost for no losses on the Ukrainian side.

The willingness of the Russians to trade these unbelievable losses!?

Ukrainians are paying a bitter price for their freedom, but it seems that from most accounts, the greatest losses come from artillery and drones. In many engagements shown, it seems the ratio is massive losses for the Russians against little to none for the Ukrainians.

https://youtu.be/1cka5sOs5jk

[DogTailRed2]

On @Maxar imagery, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 have been completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 damaged, at the Russian Air Force's Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea. A fuel storage near the main airbase runway was also destroyed, and debris continued to burn in the aftermath.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/625x386/image_b944d95e51f5fb8703766f550c3f3ec221a703f7.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/625x402/image_0011b78e42d837ad65a9cb2e4b6aec38b98c7452.png

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x412/image_e8b2935f2fd24fbfa5a949fec5c27e124d072c8b.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x391/image_9ff0bbdb946f2bd009e1973b160b90ee351e5a59.png


​​​​​​​Funny how the lessons learned in WW2 have not been retained. Lack of aircraft revetments.

[Jolley Roger]

Just to brighten up your day a bit more….
"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"

Death by a thousand cuts comes to mind
Slava Ukraini

[The Helpful Stacker]

Funny how the lessons learned in WW2 have not been retained. Lack of aircraft revetments.

To paraphrase a certain Corsican, never interrupt the Russians when they're making a mistake.

[GeeRam]

A narrated trench assault. It seems 2 platoons and several pieces of armour lost for no losses on the Ukrainian side.

The willingness of the Russians to trade these unbelievable losses!?

Ukrainians are paying a bitter price for their freedom, but it seems that from most accounts, the greatest losses come from artillery and drones. In many engagements shown, it seems the ratio is massive losses for the Russians against little to none for the Ukrainians.


With a 4:1 advantage in population numbers, Pootin thinks he can afford the losses......just as Stalin did in WW2 against the Germans. The mindset is shear numbers will win the day eventually.

[Video Mixdown]

With a 4:1 advantage in population numbers, Pootin thinks he can afford the losses......just as Stalin did in WW2 against the Germans. The mindset is shear numbers will win the day eventually.
He might well throw away large numbers of troops in the belief that he can always round up more cannon fodder, but the same is not true of materiel.

[SLXOwft]

​​​​​​​Funny how the lessons learned in WW2 have not been retained. Lack of aircraft revetments.

Ironically within a few hundred metres there are what appear to be (presumably Soviet era) AUs(HASs) and revetments. (Google Earth dates images to 2021-10-29 but Maxar (c) 2024)


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/907x587/ausbelbek_260db2b9076f2399b32838b27da68c31749c60aa.jpg


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/812x539/revet_eb1f6b9472b784f98c29426edbbefc0c47a970f2.jpg

[meleagertoo]

With a 4:1 advantage in population numbers, Pootin thinks he can afford the losses......just as Stalin did in WW2 against the Germans. The mindset is shear numbers will win the day eventually.
Unfortunately history has shown over and over again he is probably right. Few are the Nations able to out-meat the Ruzzians. (China's probably the only one, but they seem to be on the same side)
The only other is NK - and scarily they're on the Orc side too.
This is not a happy prospect.

I find it utterly staggering that Ruzzia seems willing and able to absorb six times the total British Falklands k.i.a. - every single day - at the present rate they're losing orcs at the rate of FORTY Falklands wars, every week!

[Chu Chu]

Absorbing huge losses didn’t go so well for Tsar Nick II. . .

[Lookleft]

The Russian war machine in WW2 was propped up by Allied provision of aluminium and vehicles. Russia has the manpower but its the logistical side of the war equation that will eventually impact the Russians ability to defeat Ukraine.

[jolihokistix]

Ironically within a few hundred metres there are what appear to be (presumably Soviet era) AUs(HASs) and revetments. (Google Earth dates images to 2021-10-29 but Maxar (c) 2024)


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/907x587/ausbelbek_260db2b9076f2399b32838b27da68c31749c60aa.jpg


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/812x539/revet_eb1f6b9472b784f98c29426edbbefc0c47a970f2.jpg
Spot the dummies

[ORAC]

AU-16/AU-19 HAS designed to take Mig-21 and Mig-23 sized fighters. SU-31 sized fighter are too tall and wide to fit inside, though they might be being used to hold ground equipment and weapon reloads.

[DuncanDoenitz]

Even if they were dummies/decoys, wouldn't you at least put a couple in the empty revetments in order to enhance the realism?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Even if they were dummies/decoys, wouldn't you at least put a couple in the empty revetments in order to enhance the realism?

They didn't want their technicians fuelling and arming the dummies !:O

[ORAC]

Midnight:

https://x.com/tendar/status/1791968215683207662?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​ Russian channels report that approximately 100-120 UAVs are currently on route to Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as the Russian regions Rostov and Krasnodar. Several explosions have already been heard in Crimea.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1791954064034365915?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
In what must be Ukraine's largest attack on Crimea to date, explosions covering essentially every main Russian military hot spot on the peninsula in the past hour.

Dzankoy, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Kirovskoye, Saky, more…

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/849x722/image_e0a35f6fb3181f068ad1ba4e5b3eda5d0555b70d.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tendar/status/1792084500626669755?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night. Several videos and pictures document the event. The Russian regime authorities claim that it was only “pyrotechnics”. Yeah, right.

Vyborg is more than 960 km (600 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/treaschest/status/1791889591697346860?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
In the port of Novorossiysk, the Russian Black Sea Fleet keeps submarines in a semi-submerged state, reports the Crimean Wind monitoring group.

Satellite images show only the deckhouses of Project 636.3 Varshavyanka submarines in the harbor waters, not far from the berths. Previously, submarines were moored to piers and half of the hull was visible.

This is probably how the Russians are trying to protect these Kalibr cruise missile carriers from attacks by Ukrainian drones.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/558x422/image_ab351acae69da3098de18c37180a07229d636d6e.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

Need some drone dropped depth charges.

[meleagertoo]

I wonder if they leave the hatches open, like they do with their tanks...?

[Dan Gerous]

...........

[meleagertoo]

Are the F16s, when they are eventually delivered, going to be forbidden ops over Ruzzian territory as are so many other weapon sytems under the ludicrous US policy of making UKR fight with one hand tied behind its back?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Are the F16s, when they are eventually delivered, going to be forbidden ops over Ruzzian territory as are so many other weapon sytems under the ludicrous US policy of making UKR fight with one hand tied behind its back?

I don't think the Americans have any say on that: who the planes are sold to, and where their directly-donated weapons are used can be dictated, but beyond that...... In any case I think it's currently a moot point, as both sides recognise that anti-air defence is very effective and seem not to be venturing close to the front-lines.with planes - less so helicopters.

[TURIN]

The Russian war machine in WW2 was propped up by Allied provision of aluminium and vehicles. Russia has the manpower but its the logistical side of the war equation that will eventually impact the Russian ability to defeat Ukraine.
Also, the defenders (Germany) were fighting on several fronts. I wonder if the Soviet forces would have won the day if Germany was able to concentrate it's full force to the east. Not to mention getting their population and industry infrastructure pounded from the air day and night.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1792106477416599623?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
The Ukrainian Navy reports that overnight, the Russian Project 266M Natya Class Minesweeper Kovrovets was destroyed.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1283x1283/image_b06cf77017c9ff32e866e81f55f87083401a0dba.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1791634478609424801?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
💥Ukraine destroyed the entire jet fuel storage facility at Russia's Belbek airbase in occupied Crimea. Capacity was reportedly 450,000 liters.

The adjacent building housing fuel trucks also destroyed, incapacitating any near-term operations from this base.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/904x605/image_194b732d97c350f60d9c622819d13bc42a9c7091.jpeg

[NutLoose]

Not exactly the smartest setup, they obviously haven’t heard about dispersal.


..

[NutLoose]

It looks like another Russian ship, Project 22800 Karakurt class “Tsiklon” has joined their subsurface fleet in Sevastopol.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792229142970118274?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7 Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792229142970118274?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7 Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1792235219468050440

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1792235219468050440

​​​​​​​ (https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1792235219468050440)..

[NutLoose]

Footage of the Russians taking down a drone in Novorossiysk, I wouldn’t fancy living in those houses or indeed working in the port facilities across the bay lol with all that lead being pumped in their general direction. They probably caused more damage than the drones.

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1792113743448698899

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1792113743448698899

[NutLoose]

Same place, fuel storage being hit.

https://x.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1792193114997952628

​​​​​​​https://x.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1792193114997952628

[NutLoose]

More footage of the attacks

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1791730711386296382

​​​​​​​https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1791730711386296382

[NutLoose]

And there is more!

https://x.com/Padresss/status/1791350434495410376

​​​​​​​https://x.com/Padresss/status/1791350434495410376

[NutLoose]

:ok:

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1791465354092335434

​​​​​​​https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1791465354092335434

[NutLoose]

Ahhh, it looks like Crimea is in for a noisy night.

https://x.com/raging545/status/1792290956101788049

​​​​​​​https://x.com/raging545/status/1792290956101788049

[NutLoose]

The ship that was sunk was only built in 2023!

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

​​​​​​​https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

[NutLoose]

A Russian drone base taken out and completely flattened.

https://x.com/Alfaiomi/status/1792169545383166255

https://x.com/Alfaiomi/status/1792169545383166255