Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[NutLoose]

Second recorded loss of a Spartan, surprisingly there are so few considering the numbers and their use at the front.

I have only put the link in quotes as there are sadly really badly burnt bodies in the rear, as usual BEWARE.

https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1658022608103784449

[Tartiflette Fan]

Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium.

But it's all just theatre.

IM

Why do you believe that ? It is not as if Belarus is the biggest prize at the top of the pyramid , and if it falls, everything else falls after.

[_Agrajag_]

I doubt that Belarus collapsing would have any significant impact. That's just going on recent history. My personal view is that we in the west put too much store in people wanting democracy. Many former Soviet states struggled to become democratic (not least Ukraine). Easy to suppose that opposition to a government equals a desire to become a true democracy. Many Russians and Belorussians may oppose their leader but that doesn't mean they want democracy.

The same was true in the Warsaw pact states. I know this first hand as my wife is East German. If you and your parents have grown up not knowing what democracy is then it may not be something seen to be of value. Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.

[20driver]

Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.

That is very much my experience in dealing with Russians who have immigrated. And those are the ones who have left ! I would add Russians in the last century have gone through a level of deprevation that no one in the west can relate to. They have grown up with stories from the grandparents etc. With that perspective they see things as not that bad and it has been many times worse.

[NutLoose]

Russia may indeed have damaged a Patriot system.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658543711494496280?cxt=HHwWsICzgfytqoQuAAAA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658543711494496280?cxt=HHwWsICzgfytqoQuAAAA

[fdr]

Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium. IM

The was a change in leadership, she was not permitted to take over rightful administration due to the actions of the current dictator, (that's what dictators tend to do), and she received an EU award for her efforts. If the current dictator falls over, she is the legitimate govt of Belarus.

The unlawful leader of Belarus is the one that permitted the criminal actions of the incumbent of the Kremlin to be carried out from the territory of Belarus. When this thing gets to the wash up stage, Belarus owes Ukraine for the actions of their dictator. The tolerance of Ukraine towards the antics of the Belarus dictator is amazing, they had every right under international law to respond to the aggression being permitted by Belarus, and chose not to.

On other matters, while in the old days we used to expend a great deal of effort to get BDA and intel, today, we just have to go to social media... cuts both ways, the war crimes get covered, and may never see closure, and we give the attacker info on the effectiveness of their tactics... all in all, not a good deal for the ham in the sandwich.

[Video Mixdown]

I doubt that Belarus collapsing would have any significant impact. That's just going on recent history. My personal view is that we in the west put too much store in people wanting democracy. Many former Soviet states struggled to become democratic (not least Ukraine). Easy to suppose that opposition to a government equals a desire to become a true democracy. Many Russians and Belorussians may oppose their leader but that doesn't mean they want democracy.
The same was true in the Warsaw pact states. I know this first hand as my wife is East German. If you and your parents have grown up not knowing what democracy is then it may not be something seen to be of value. Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.
Who cares whether they want democracy or not? They can carry on as they are forever for all I care, but if the only way they can feel good about themselves is through threatening or attacking other nations they can't expect to be liked, admired or welcomed. If that means them living in an isolation cage of their own making then so be it. Ironically this latest adventure by Putin has exposed Russia not to be strong and powerful at all, but weak, stupid and corrupt. Putin himself can hardly be described as a Statesman any more. He once strutted around at international conferences playing the big I Am, but he and his cronies now risk arrest for war crimes if they travel outside Russia. Some strength. Some power.

[ORAC]

He also goes on about nuking England again and feeling sorry for Scotland - but he doesn’t worry about radiation because of his age…

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1658691883248525312?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show bemoaned Russia's internal divisions and the lack of young people, which consequently led to older people serving on the frontlines. Solovyov claimed that Russians in their 60s are in tremendous physical shape.

https://youtu.be/fNLXMED6v0A

[ORAC]

Eating their own is how the collapse starts…



https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1284x1461/image_ba229fc4164b4b063aff9039e233dcf5733ce9d4.jpeg

[NutLoose]

These people want putting up against a wall... or jailing for a very long time then expelling from the country.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1658755192190279682?cxt=HHwWhICx_eHDioUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1658755192190279682?cxt=HHwWhICx_eHDioUuAAAA

[NutLoose]

200K cracked..


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x900/image_744fdd58bb8dac1e52a905dd40d551c27f014f2f.png

[NutLoose]

More signs of internal strife within the Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658386653638008833?cxt=HHwWgoC95f_34oMuAAAA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1658386653638008833?cxt=HHwWgoC95f_34oMuAAAA

They have mapped the military assets Russia has in Crimea

https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-journalists-map-military-facilities-in-russian-occupied-crimea/

[Sfojimbo]

The Patriot's that were fired were PAC 3s.
This is one that came down after a miss or an abort, they abort if an earlier missile hits the target first.
PAC 3s are kinetic kill vehicles.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x1280/3iu3ustpc60b1_3ab78c7d593d9d760379e01a7644b8f5285bd8fa.jpg
PAC 3 Missile

[FUMR]

they abort if an earlier missile hits the target first.

Forgive me, non mil person here, what is the reason for that? What's wrong with hitting an enemy target more than once? (to be sure, to be sure)!

[jolihokistix]

$5 million for THAT!!!???

[NutLoose]

Hmmm... good question, all I can think is it's better to have one lump drop out of the sky than a myriad of potentially lethal bits.



https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x900/image_a8d0f146d30c5da227d6461f6b8c63be3b62dbc8.png

[NutLoose]

$5 million for THAT!!!???

You cannot put a price on lives saved and property saved. One life makes it all worthwhile.
Remember it's not like building a car, you have an infinitely smaller base to spread the development costs over and have to ramp up to low production numbers of parts, that price will also take into account the rest of the system.

[NutLoose]

Blimey! That surprised the UAV operator

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1658493487833030657?cxt=HHwWgoCxycjCk4QuAAAA

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1658493487833030657?cxt=HHwWgoCxycjCk4QuAAAA

[Video Mixdown]

$5 million for THAT!!!???
If you can do the same job cheaper I'm sure there are many potential customers who would be interested to hear from you.

[Ohrly]

$5 million for THAT!!!???

The bangy bit isn't the most expensive part of the missile. That picture is also missing half of the missile, so it could well have detonated in range of a target.

[NutLoose]

I am still trying to figure out who Nukem Dukem isn't trying to pick a fight with... Just as well that his Russian military is only operating at half strength in its war... God know where the other half is... unless of course those are the already dead and wounded.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658761434975567873?cxt=HHwWgoCwrZKvjYUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658761434975567873?cxt=HHwWgoCwrZKvjYUuAAAA

[bugged on the right]

Perhaps the generals have been trousering the salaries of non existing troops?

[NutLoose]

They want to hit Birmingham now..

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658737151326969860?cxt=HHwWiICzidOpgoUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658737151326969860?cxt=HHwWiICzidOpgoUuAAAA

[Sfojimbo]

The bangy bit isn't the most expensive part of the missile. That picture is also missing half of the missile, so it could well have detonated in range of a target.
The PAC-3 depends on the kinetic energy of the missile itself, it has no warhead other than a small charge to expel fragments of dense metal just before the hit.

AFIK later version PAC 3s were 4.1 million apiece, but they aren't made anymore, the current version is the CRI version (cost reduction initiative) I believe the cost reduction is large, but I don't have the numbers.

There is also an MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) version currently being manufactured, it is intended to hit ICBMs in their mid course of trajectory, it's probably extra pricy.
The other PAC 3 are intended to hit an incoming missile in it's last 20km of flight.

[Winemaker]

They want to hit Birmingham now..



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658737151326969860?cxt=HHwWiICzidOpgoUuAAAA
Propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show bemoaned Russia's internal divisions and the lack of young people, which consequently led to older people serving on the frontlines. Solovyov claimed that Russians in their 60s are in tremendous physical shape.

He's calling for Russia to drop a nuke on an island as a demonstration, and if it has people that's okay. He suggests the island of Scotland.......

[Less Hair]

They desperately try to go back to their old scare tactics. Nobody cares any more.

[Tartiflette Fan]

I doubt that Belarus collapsing would have any significant impact. That's just going on recent history. My personal view is that we in the west put too much store in people wanting democracy. Many former Soviet states struggled to become democratic (not least Ukraine). Easy to suppose that opposition to a government equals a desire to become a true democracy. Many Russians and Belorussians may oppose their leader but that doesn't mean they want democracy.

The same was true in the Warsaw pact states. I know this first hand as my wife is East German. If you and your parents have grown up not knowing what democracy is then it may not be something seen to be of value. Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.

It has 50 000 in its armed forces, plus a population that could be conscripted.

[Video Mixdown]

They desperately try to go back to their old scare tactics. Nobody cares any more.
In their paranoia they speak as if it's rational to destroy the world because they're not being allowed to annex Ukraine. If only they knew that until their stupid invasion most Westerners just associated the word 'Russia' with an irritatingly large patch of nothing that you had to fly over to get somewhere more interesting.

[NutLoose]

It has 50 000 in its armed forces, plus a population that could be conscripted.

I get the feeling with the blowhard with the squeaky voice out of the way, it would take a significant amount of Russian troops to quell the unrest, I doubt a lot of the Belarus military has any stomach for the Russians and neither have the population, still they could always take over the nukes and send them back to Moscow.

I personally think it is telling the the blowhard with the squeaky voice has deliberately kept the military out of joining forces in attacking Ukraine, as he realises that his powerbase is on a knife edge and committing the military or his country to such actions would be his end.

He has in all of the years been backed up by Russia and Russia's military shmight, that these days is in short supply and Putin is struggling with numbers to let alone die in Ukraine, without having to find resources to die in a second front into Belarus.

The wolves are circling the blowhard with the squeaky voice, there already seems to be a lot of chatter as to who will replace him.

[Rockie_Rapier]

Guardian book review (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/may/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-by-serhii-plokhy-review-the-first-draft-of-history) The Russo-Ukrainian War by Serhii Plokhy review – the first draft of history

Reviewed by John Simpson.

Ukraine’s army has done well for three main reasons. Its morale has been sky high. The weaponry that Nato has supplied is mostly a lot better than Russia’s. (To that extent, the Kremlin’s self-pitying claims of being at war with Nato are correct.) The third reason is the remarkable transformation in the military doctrine of the Ukrainian forces. When a high-powered Nato military team visited Kyiv before Russia’s takeover of Crimea in 2014, it found that the Ukrainian army was much like the Russian one, and the Soviet army before them: rather than take a decision and risk punishment, junior officers would pass the buck to their seniors, and the seniors would refer upwards to Moscow. The Nato team taught the Ukrainians that any decision, even a wrong one, was better than no decision at all, and that, cowardice or treachery excepted, there should be no punishment for orders that turned out to be wrong. Liberated by this, the Ukrainian forces have made the Russians look sclerotic and antiquated. Whatever happens now, Putin has demonstrated Russia’s incompetence for the whole world to see.

[MightyGem]

they abort if an earlier missile hits the target first.

Forgive me, non mil person here, what is the reason for that? What's wrong with hitting an enemy target more than once? (to be sure, to be sure)!
Because an aircraft hit by a Patriot missile is no longer there to be hit by another?

[FUMR]

Because an aircraft hit by a Patriot missile is no longer there to be hit by another?

Er, yes of course. For some reason I was thinking of ground targets forgetting that Patriot is surface-to-air. I plead dementia as my defence!

[langleybaston]

Guardian book review (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/may/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-by-serhii-plokhy-review-the-first-draft-of-history)

Reviewed by John Simpson.

I have a half-remembered essay rattling around in my head, regarding lessons learned from British army pre-Great War large scale manoeuvres. This stated [I think!] that junior officers were required to make decisions enabling the stated objectives of the grand plan to be achieved . This was to be regardless of disobeying detailed orders by the intermediate CoC.
It made and makes sense. A major i/c a wing [half a battalion] tasked in detail to proceed post-haste from A to B but finding a lightly-guarded river crossing en-route is duty bound to seize it, and thus never arrive at B. His irate lt col is likely to be quickly calmed by the brigadier's praise.

Russian behaviour in combat suggests neglible room for initiative, whereas initiative, within the grand plan, is demanded by circumstances.

[ORAC]

Because it requires US authorization which Biden is refusing to provide….

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1658870783370833922?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The United Kingdom, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, and France have announced that they are now prepared to Create a Coalition of Countries that will begin the Training and Transfer of F-16 “Fighting Falcons” to Ukraine, however they have all stated that while they will soon be prepared to Train Ukrainian Pilots they will not yet be able to give their own Inventory of F-16s to Ukraine.

[NutLoose]

Poland has said they cannot provide them as they only have sufficient for their own countries defence.

[NutLoose]

Wait until the end for his version of moving to a more favourable position..

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1658831997840621571?cxt=HHwWhoC81bi6rYUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1658831997840621571?cxt=HHwWhoC81bi6rYUuAAAA

[NutLoose]

The partisan war in Crimea have derailed a grain train

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659103454743109635

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659103454743109635

[NutLoose]

Damn

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659109279884800002?cxt=HHwWhMCz8bDGq4YuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659109279884800002?cxt=HHwWhMCz8bDGq4YuAAAA

then

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659084350497980416?cxt=HHwWgIC8vaaboIYuAAAA

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659084350497980416?cxt=HHwWgIC8vaaboIYuAAAA

[ORAC]

Russian missile strikes that sent black smoke billowing into the skies over Kyiv on Thursday form part of the wave of “unprecedented” attacks on the Ukrainian capital, officials have said.

Air raid sirens wailed from 7am as Moscow launched cruise missiles at Kyiv, including from strategic bombers in the Caspian Sea. It was the ninth consecutive night of large-scale strikes, with Russia braced for an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. There were no reports of injuries but debris fell across eastern Kyiv, starting fires and causing damage.

Ukraine said it had destroyed 29 of 30 missiles launched from land, sea and air.

“All targets over Kyiv were shot down,” General Valery Zaluzhny, head of the armed forces, said. One person was killed and two injured in a missile strike on an industrial facility in Odesa, the port city on the Black Sea....

[antheads]

Hmm seems the Patriots are no match for these hypersonic missiles after all.. lolzo

Patriot overated

[NutLoose]

Another Frankentank by Russia

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1658906291014705166?cxt=HHwWnIC9-e-ez4UuAAAA

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1658906291014705166?cxt=HHwWnIC9-e-ez4UuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Poor guy.. :sad:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1659135915183276034?cxt=HHwWhIC8qeHUt4YuAAAA

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1659135915183276034?cxt=HHwWhIC8qeHUt4YuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Aviation Content:

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659179466948595713

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659179466948595713

[nevillestyke]

Aviation Content:



https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659179466948595713

As someone who caught a wingtip on the ground and spun in, a couple of days ago, I find these low flying videos a bit disconcerting ('twas only on a hanglider, so just a broken upright and no injury).

[NutLoose]

As someone who caught a wingtip on the ground and spun in, a couple of days ago, I find these low flying videos a bit disconcerting ('twas only on a hanglider, so just a broken upright and no injury).

Then you won't want to see this Neville from the accidents thread. He / she was lucky

https://twitter.com/i/status/1655137354921791494

[NutLoose]

Aviation content:

Low altitude Su25 in the rain!

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1658523728873914379?cxt=HHwWloCw8emioYQuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1658523728873914379?cxt=HHwWloCw8emioYQuAAAA

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1659197340111220738?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1659197340111220738?s=20

[Tartiflette Fan]

Aviation content:

Low altitude Su25 in the rain!



https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1658523728873914379?cxt=HHwWloCw8emioYQuAAAA

What kind of accuracy does something like that have - +/- 500 m ? Does the pilot have any kind of aiming device, or simply fire at position X at 500 ' altitude ?

[NutLoose]

Russian triage, Heck they never even took the mag off, I bet it has one up the spout too.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1659228361019858944?cxt=HHwWgIC9vejZ4YYuAAAA

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1659228361019858944?cxt=HHwWgIC9vejZ4YYuAAAA

[The Helpful Stacker]

Another Frankentank by Russia



https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1658906291014705166?cxt=HHwWnIC9-e-ez4UuAAAA
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x1271/20230518_184553_ddc53a7f97cd10149411f9645137aba140e9831d.jpg

[NutLoose]

List of those in Russia officially recorded as deaths and buried etc.

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1658833279758262279?cxt=HHwWjoCz2YeFroUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1658833279758262279?cxt=HHwWjoCz2YeFroUuAAAA

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/SugarEgor/status/1657392724935409666?cxt=HHwWhIC88d35noAuAAAA

https://twitter.com/SugarEgor/status/1657392724935409666?cxt=HHwWhIC88d35noAuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Norway provides three artillery location radars and eight long-range rocket artillery of the MLRS type. The donations are made in close collaboration with Great Britain.

- We must maintain our support for Ukraine so that they can continue their fight for freedom and independence. More weapons are needed, and these are capacities in high demand for Ukraine that we would not have been able to achieve without close cooperation with Great Britain, says Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp).

Norway has previously donated three MLRS missiles to Great Britain. Together with the eight that have now been donated, this helped to increase the UK's ability to continue its support to Ukraine.

- This is a weapon that has had a great effect in the conflict, and has given Ukraine the opportunity to delimit Russian supply lines and also to knock out a number of important targets behind the front lines, says Gram.
Norway has also decided to donate three Arthur radars from the Defense's warehouse to Ukraine. These radars are used to locate enemy artillery. The donation will be carried out in collaboration with Great Britain, which has also previously donated this type of radar to Ukraine.

- The Ukrainian people have shown impressive resilience. Their fight is also our fight - for freedom, democracy and security, says the Minister of Defence.

The Defense is in the process of replacing its Arthur artillery locating radars with new ones. The ongoing investment project is scheduled to deliver new artillery location radars to the Norwegian Armed Forces in 2024 and 2025. The MLRS has been decommissioned by the Norwegian Armed Forces and is therefore not part of the military structure.


https://www-regjeringen-no.translate.goog/no/aktuelt/noreg-stottar-ukraina-med-langtrekkjande-artilleri-og-radarar/id2977717/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[NutLoose]

I do this all the time, I often over calculate the amount of funds in my bank account by the odd 3 billion, it's an easy mistake to make...

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659253952095952907?cxt=HHwWloC97bSr7YYuAAAA


https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659253952095952907?cxt=HHwWloC97bSr7YYuAAAA

[NutLoose]

This is insane footage.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1658918382035521536?cxt=HHwWgMC-idXe1IUuAAAA

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1658918382035521536?cxt=HHwWgMC-idXe1IUuAAAA

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1659266655367700514?s=20

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1659266655367700514?s=20

[Tartiflette Fan]

The blogger, Denys Davydov, claims ( 15:40 min ) that Turkey is delivering these M 483A1 shells which cannot be delivered from its other Western supporters because they have either signed -or abide by - the accord banning cluster munitions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk5PY-jBStw

[BEagle]

Pope hopes to send peace envoys to Kyiv and MoscowPope Francis has said he hopes to send personal peace envoys to the Ukrainian and Russian presidents to try to broker a ceasefire in the war, according to the Catholic website Il Sismografo.The website, which specialises in Vatican news, said this is the "mission" Francis spoke of cryptically when he was returning from Hungary last month.

According to the website, the plan would be for Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna to go to Kyiv for talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and for Archbishop Claudio Gugerotti, the head of the Vatican's department for eastern churches, to go to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin.

It said both presidents had agreed to meet with the papal envoys, without citing sources or giving details.

Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni said he had no comment on the report but pointed a reporter to recent comments by Vatican secretary of state Cardinal Pietro Parolin that "now is the moment to take the initiative to create a just peace in Ukraine".

One can only hope that the Holy Father's initiative will bear fruit!

[langleybaston]

I find the assumed moral equivalence of the Russian position revolting. If Russia had wanted peace it could have had it.

Every Sunday my church is bidden to pray for peace ........ a fair number of the congregation mutter "victory" at the appropriate moment.

[Wokkafans]

Duck!

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659300830103707649?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659300830103707649?s=20

[NutLoose]

Well this looks really cosy…not. let’s hope the door sticks, bearing in mind the shoddy work on the rest of the Russian military might, one assumes the high tech chronograph timepiece operating the door lock has probably been replaced by a eBay $1-99 Chinese timex knock off.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1659162340498055169?cxt=HHwWgoC9ofXWw4YuAAAA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1659162340498055169?cxt=HHwWgoC9ofXWw4YuAAAA

[GlobalNav]

Well this looks really cosy…not. let’s hope the door sticks, bearing in mind the shoddy work on the rest of the Russian military might, one assumes the high tech chronograph timepiece operating the door lock has probably been replaced by a eBay $1-99 Chinese timex knock off.



https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1659162340498055169?cxt=HHwWgoC9ofXWw4YuAAAA

someone should weld the door shut

[Sfojimbo]

someone should weld the door shut
Just stick a quarter in the door jam and slam it shut.
That works pretty good.

[jolihokistix]

Just stick a quarter in the door jam and slam it shut.
That works pretty good.
Waste of a good quarter. A nickel should do the trick.

[Rockie_Rapier]

Well this looks really cosy…not. let’s hope the door sticks, bearing in mind the shoddy work on the rest of the Russian military might, one assumes the high tech chronograph timepiece operating the door lock has probably been replaced by a eBay $1-99 Chinese timex knock off.

When it comes to his own safety you can be pretty sure that Putin has taken the precaution of incorporating tech from the 'much despised' West.

[Winemaker]

Well this looks really cosy…not. let’s hope the door sticks, bearing in mind the shoddy work on the rest of the Russian military might, one assumes the high tech chronograph timepiece operating the door lock has probably been replaced by a eBay $1-99 Chinese timex knock off.



https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1659162340498055169?cxt=HHwWgoC9ofXWw4YuAAAA
Really, that looks faked to me, most certainly an artists impression!
(edited per DR's comment)

[Video Mixdown]

Well this looks really cosy…not.
If he spends a lot of time in a bunker like that no wonder he’s potty. Occasionally I had to work in the one at STC and found it a deeply (sic) unpleasant place to be.

[ORAC]

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-us-could-train-ukrainian-pilots-to-fly-f-16s-in-4-months-184136820.html

Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months

Yahoo News has obtained a U.S. Air Force assessment of two Ukrainian pilots who outperformed stated Pentagon expectations over two weeks in a flight simulator at a U.S. air base.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/17/biden-ukraine-f-16-pressure-campaign-00097525

Pressure campaign on Biden to send F-16s to Ukraine goes into overdrive

[ORAC]

Follow on to the Russian BMEWS scandal - now escalating and being linked to other programmes and up the chain of command…

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1659251593890365474?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


A major corruption scandal is reported to be unfolding in the Russian Ministry of Defence that implicates several generals and ministers, concerning the hugely expensive construction of Russia's National Defence Control Centre (NDCC) in 2014. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659251593890365474.html
​​​​​​​

[DaveReidUK]

Really, that looks faked to me.

I think the expression you're searching for is "artist's impression".

[[email protected]]

Follow on to the Russian BMEWS scandal - now escalating and being linked to other programmes and up the chain of command… Senior Officer corruption shock horror! - just a larger scale and more blatant version of the MoD revolving doorway to industry in the UK perhaps....

[NutLoose]

This propagandist just does not get what an all out nuclear war would entail, talk about delusional.


https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659230008076804099?cxt=HHwWhoCxgdi54oYuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659230008076804099?cxt=HHwWhoCxgdi54oYuAAAA

[golfbananajam]

If he spends a lot of time in a bunker like that no wonder he’s potty. Occasionally I had to work in the one at STC and found it a deeply (sic) unpleasant place to be.

Spent some time in there myself, and at Bentley Priory and Northwood, and I agree (though it was much easier to get lost at N'wood)

[NutLoose]

Reports coming in that the US will allow countries to provide F-16’s

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1659353107568943112?cxt=HHwWkICz2YK3mocuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1659353107568943112?cxt=HHwWkICz2YK3mocuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Lol, I wonder what it takes

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659251189215526925?cxt=HHwWmoCw5cuK7IYuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659251189215526925?cxt=HHwWmoCw5cuK7IYuAAAA

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1659471568488091650?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1659471568488091650?s=20

[NutLoose]

That’s a serious amount of vehicles.


https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1658713982503362562?cxt=HHwWhICx8YXl94QuAAAA



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1658713982503362562?cxt=HHwWhICx8YXl94QuAAAA

[GeeRam]

Occasionally I had to work in the one at STC and found it a deeply (sic) unpleasant place to be.

I can imagine, as I worked on site building the thing and that was bad enough.

[NutLoose]

13 men 30 hours..

https://twitter.com/GwarWorin/status/1659361631204253696?cxt=HHwWgIC93ZSnnocuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/GwarWorin/status/1659361631204253696?cxt=HHwWgIC93ZSnnocuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Scores on the doors Officer wise..


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/image_a368f0a9fec2098f15048a8fcddfdba8ebb5a32d.png

[jolihokistix]

I like the idea of sending a tank transporter or three round and round a ring road for a day or two, such as in Leicester, Manchester, Leeds Birmingham. Now, where are all these vehicles going, I wonder? Makes my head spin.

[pasta]

Tallying up the Western hardware that Russia claims to have destroyed - their greatest success seems to have been taking out 250% of the HIMARS supplied to Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1659496521102966786

[NutLoose]

Remember the Ukrainian Stormer that got it by the lancer, well it got off lightly and I would imagine it will be repaired.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659509566395097090?cxt=HHwWhIC95Y_K4YcuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659509566395097090?cxt=HHwWhIC95Y_K4YcuAAAA

[Herod]

This propagandist just does not get what an all out nuclear war would entail, talk about delusional.




https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659230008076804099?cxt=HHwWhoCxgdi54oYuAAAA

​​​​​​​"Nuclear strikes do not end a war" If memory serves, there have only been two, and they certainly ended a war

[Old Bricks]

When we moved from the "old" bunker at HQSTC to the sparkly new one, it was actually quite a pleasant environment compared with WW2 conditions. As part of the move, we were briefed on the new bunker and how everything worked - or should work. One of the statements from the briefer was that the new bunker, whilst not proof against a direct hit from a nuclear weapon, would be OK in the case of a "near miss". He was unable to answer the inevitable question "How near?", but, as a comforting aside, pointed out that everything in the bunker was stressed to cope with "n"G, including the smart, stainless steel toilets, thus provoking the next question as to why said toilets were not fitted with 4-point safety belts in case the near-miss happened whilst a non-"n"G-resistant human was doing his/her biz. End of briefing.

[ORAC]

Lots of amusing stories about the HQSTC bunker, such as all the types of plugs and the time and cost to be able to bring in a kettle - but none really relevant to this thread…

[Flyhighfirst]

"Nuclear strikes do not end a war" If memory serves, there have only been two, and they certainly ended a war

when you are the only one with them it is a quick way to end a war. If you are using them against someone who also has them it’s a quick way to end humanity.

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn’t respond.

[Less Hair]

I'd say they would. And Russia anticipates the same.

[Video Mixdown]

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn’t respond.
Any discussion along these lines is pure speculation, but for all the bluster and threats I don't think they'd dare do that. They lost control of the situation in Ukraine on day one and it's just gone from bad to worse for them ever since. Throwing nuclear weapons into the mix would bring a whole new level of pain for them. What international friends they still have would turn on them and I strongly suspect they have been told exactly what would happen to any of their forces located outside Russia's borders. In short, they would lose far more than they could gain - it would be an act of national suicide.
​​​​

[batushka]

that time nuclear bombs were privilege of one
I don't think it will work nowadays

[dagenham]

Times reporting USA has now said yes to f16

[DaveReidUK]

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn't respond.

If you mean the West wouldn't respond in kind, then I would agree.

If you mean there wouldn't be any response at all, the Russians clearly don't share that view, hence we haven't (and won't) see that kind of escalation on their part.

[langleybaston]

Spent some time in there myself, and at Bentley Priory and Northwood, and I agree (though it was much easier to get lost at N'wood)
Add the caves at Maastricht if I am allowed to acknowledge them.

[Beamr]

President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth generation aircraft, including F-16s, a senior administration official tells CNN.

The training is not expected to happen in the US, the official said, and will likely happen entirely in Europe. But US personnel will participate in the training alongside allies and partners in Europe, the official said. It is expected to take several months to complete.

“As the training takes place over the coming months, our coalition of countries participating in this effort will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them,” the official said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/19/politics/biden-g7-f-16-ukraine

[FUMR]

when you are the only one with them it is a quick way to end a war. If you are using them against someone who also has them it’s a quick way to end humanity.

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn’t respond.

My personal and honest opinion is that any nuclear strike by Russia would give the west every reason to annihilate Russia. No response would result in the opposite.

[NutLoose]

When we moved from the "old" bunker at HQSTC to the sparkly new one, it was actually quite a pleasant environment compared with WW2 conditions. As part of the move, we were briefed on the new bunker and how everything worked - or should work. One of the statements from the briefer was that the new bunker, whilst not proof against a direct hit from a nuclear weapon, would be OK in the case of a "near miss". He was unable to answer the inevitable question "How near?", but, as a comforting aside, pointed out that everything in the bunker was stressed to cope with "n"G, including the smart, stainless steel toilets, thus provoking the next question as to why said toilets were not fitted with 4-point safety belts in case the near-miss happened whilst a non-"n"G-resistant human was doing his/her biz. End of briefing.

They showed us the HAS trials film where they stuck an old aircraft and some sheep in the HAS then detonated a bomb near it to show its strength, the narrator was praising the jet as with a couple of days work would be flyable again, all of us were looking at the dead sheep that the shock wave had killed, as that would have been us.

[NutLoose]

when you are the only one with them it is a quick way to end a war. If you are using them against someone who also has them it’s a quick way to end humanity.

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn’t respond.

The problem with that is as Chernobyl proved, Europe would not be exempt from the fall out, indeed neither would Russias agricultural heartlands

[Recc]

That being said, my personal opinion is that should Russia use 2 or 3 tactical nukes the west wouldn’t respond.

They wouldn't have any choice but to respond. The global consequences of allowing a nuclear power to force victory via use of nuclear weapons would effectively end non-proliferation. Every state with the technical capability of producing nuclear weapons (a very large number) would do so and the risk of proliferation on that scale are horrible to consider. This is particularly the case in Ukraine where the west offered security guarantees in exchange for disarmament. Ukraine has already suggested that they may review the status of the Budapest memorandum in the light of the Russian invasion, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were - if not actively developing a weapons programme - at least putting in place the technology that would allow such a programme to be fast tracked.

[NutLoose]

Times reporting USA has now said yes to f16

just needs a full compliment of weaponry for them now.

[Video Mixdown]

Times reporting USA has now said yes to f16
Well, it's been a long and winding road but they finally seem to be getting there. There will be an interesting story about international arm-twisting to be told one day.

[GlobalNav]

Well, it's been a long and winding road but they finally seem to be getting there. There will be an interesting story about international arm-twisting to be told one day.

I wonder how many years/months of fighting and lives the delay in providing them has cost Ukraine. Obviously there are high ranking US government officials who have opposed sending F-16s and I also wonder why. What are the arguments and data/intel supporting the opposition. I cannot imagine any US combat commander who would accept insufficient air support of all kinds.

[albatross]

Well this looks really cosy…not. let’s hope the door sticks, bearing in mind the shoddy work on the rest of the Russian military might, one assumes the high tech chronograph timepiece operating the door lock has probably been replaced by a eBay $1-99 Chinese timex knock off.



https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1659162340498055169?cxt=HHwWgoC9ofXWw4YuAAAA


That door looks familiar……
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/600x315/img_6495_d96ed9dbee96cef943680ab753ab94e525ea0683.jpeg

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1659602498343034880?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


This is another crackerjack translation thread by @ChrisO_wiki on the Russian air crew killed in the Ukrainian aerial ambush on 13 May 2023.

Go read it and come back for my "trends in Russian casualties" 🧵

The Russians have eaten the human seed corn of future military power


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659464934193872896.html
​​​​​​​

[anxiao]

Having read the Memorandum for WG162 CC on the UKR AF Baseline Pilot Assessment, I think it makes interesting reading. What perhaps needs to be taken into consideration is the environment in which this assessment was made.

Points I think are worthy discussion;

1) The writers of this report are at peace with the intended opponent of the trained pilots. It was not written on a war footing, but assuming a normal peace timeline for training to a high USAF standard. Is that a realistic standard for the trainees to attain on a war footing? We are not talking about 6 hour experience Spitfire pilots in 1941, but war experienced pilots who need transition training onto a complex jet.

2) Comments are made concerning the inability of the pilots to carry out FAA let-down procedures, and certain other theatre procedures which do not exist in the intended battle area. To be fair these were excluded in the wash-up total.

3) Concern is made of the time taken to teach the pilots English so that they may be able to read the manuals, and receive instruction in English. It would take a few good Ukrainian technical translators around a week to put the required documents into a language that the pilots can understand. I would assume that most of these manuals already exist in Russian and Polish, if not Ukrainian. As the British Army discovered when they started training tank crews, a few translators could cover most situations, and the bilingual volunteers that came out of the woodwork were plentiful.

4) I feel there has been a cultural mismatch between what the USAF would normally do to train an F16 pilot, and what is required for the UKR AF at war. The USAF want to train the pilots to operate in their way. There are many ways to operate an F16, as their proliferation around the world has shown.

Really, how long would it take to train a war experienced Mig or Su pilot to fight with an F16? To get a down and dirty operator who could win, and who wouldn't kill himself, my guess is a month. But I know nothing about the subject, so perhaps some guesses from those who know? Russia knows the answer so there is no risk of OPSEC

[Tartiflette Fan]

I wonder how many years/months of fighting and lives the delay in providing them has cost Ukraine. Obviously there are high ranking US government officials who have opposed sending F-16s and I also wonder why. What are the arguments and data/intel supporting the opposition. I cannot imagine any US combat commander who would accept insufficient air support of all kinds.

As I have posted before, I'm uncertain what they can add. Russia has a huge superiority in all types of aircraft, but the only thing they seem to be doing is launching long-range missiles from inside Russia: there are no reports that I have read about ground attacks on Ukrainian forces or bombing of anything like power stations. The AA defences seem to be feared deeply by both sides ( look at videos of Ukrainian planes lofting "dumb" rockets from friendly air-space).

As far as air support goes, are you perhaps thinking post-Vietnam where air-superiority has been more or less guaranteed after Day Two ?

[Spunky Monkey]

As I have posted before, I'm uncertain what they can add. Russia has a huge superiority in all types of aircraft, but the only thing they seem to be doing is launching long-range missiles from inside Russia: there are no reports that I have read about ground attacks on Ukrainian forces or bombing of anything like power stations. The AA defences seem to be feared deeply by both sides ( look at videos of Ukrainian planes lofting "dumb" rockets from friendly air-space).

As far as air support goes, are you perhaps thinking post-Vietnam where air-superiority has been more or less guaranteed after Day Two ?

You are right in your summation of what can they add? Currently the F16 on a stalled expansive battle front will do what the the current Ukrainian jets are doing, patrolling, deterring and some interdiction strikes.
However if and when the Ukrainians start a deep strike offensive the Ukrainian jets will have a big window of opportunity...manoueveaur warfare.
The highly mobile artillery will pulverise a relatively large section of the front allowing a breakout of armoured and mechanised forces.
The short range Russian AD will be forced to make a decision, stay and potentially get overwhelmed, or withdraw and leave areas with reduced protection that the F16s can exploit.
The withdrawing short and medium range AD is of course at risk while relocating and if enough momentum is exerted then the AD may not have the ability to reorganise.
The Russians can use longer range AD, which has its limitations against aircraft in the FEBA. So potentially the Ru Air Force has to take risks and engage the F16, which is arguably more capable even with pilots with less time on type.

[BEagle]

Surely it's not simply the F-16 which Ukraine needs, but the superb AIM-120 AAM, of which 6 can be carried by the F-16?

[GlobalNav]

As I have posted before, I'm uncertain what they can add. Russia has a huge superiority in all types of aircraft, but the only thing they seem to be doing is launching long-range missiles from inside Russia: there are no reports that I have read about ground attacks on Ukrainian forces or bombing of anything like power stations. The AA defences seem to be feared deeply by both sides ( look at videos of Ukrainian planes lofting "dumb" rockets from friendly air-space).

As far as air support goes, are you perhaps thinking post-Vietnam where air-superiority has been more or less guaranteed after Day Two ?

As far as air support, I mean all kinds even if the F16 cannot provide all of it. From a theater commander’s perspective though: defensive counterair to protect friendly troops and targets from attack, offensive counterair to defeat the enemy’s air forces, close air support, interdiction, electronic warfare, etc. It’s great to have complete air superiority, but even if that cannot be accomplished immediately, the F16s could still make significant tactical contributions.

[wondering]

I reckon, there will be foreign qualified aircrew volunteering to get the Western fast jets off the ground initially. Flying Tigers 2.0.

[ORAC]

Really, how long would it take to train a war experienced Mig or Su pilot to fight with an F16?
I posted earlier the assssment of the RAF AVM in charge of training who assed the requirement and estimated, after stripping out the peacetime only requirements, around 6 weeks…

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/651259-how-long.html#post11382642

[BBadanov]

I posted earlier the assssment of the RAF AVM in charge of training who assed the requirement and estimated, after stripping out the peacetime only requirements, around 6 weeks…

6 weeks could be do-able. The studes fly 6 days a week, 2 sorties a day. 7th day relax a bit, study, advanced groundschool.
Minimal duals, and presume no sim.
Week 1 - basic groundschool, fly from Day 3, Fams, GH and formn, IF and letdowns
Week 2 - tactical LL formn and tactics, SAPs, letdowns.
Weeks 3/4 - A/A tactics based on AIM-120, perhaps fire one missile. Some leads.
Weeks 5/6 - A/G weaponry and tactics. More leads.
Return to UKR after 6 weeks trg, probably some 50 hrs in the jet.

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1659654677615484931?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1659670260570529794?s=20​​​​​​​

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1659654677615484931?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1659670260570529794?s=20

[NutLoose]

I. Personally see the main advantage of the F16 is the range of its weapons, the problem Ukraine has with their current fleets is Russia can engage them from a greater distance than Ukraine can, meaning Russia can in effect hold air superiority over the front while Ukraine has to risk both aircraft and pilots in covering their troops without the ability to respond to Russias aircraft.

With the F16 then that disadvantage may be mitigated forcing Russia to deploy their aircraft further back and allowing Ukraine to operate.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1659637884033400832?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Just when you thought this regime couldn't get any madder. Russia bans 500 Americans over "anti-Russian actions", including, wait for it, "people involved in the persecution of dissidents" who took part in the January 6 storming of the Capitol...

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1871495/#
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1659656583041654790?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The de-facto Western fighter embargo of Ukraine by the DC De-escalation faction was one of its last public policy ditches.

Losing the public F-16 embargo fight meant one of the De-escalation crowd had to fall on his sword for the faction's patron.

This has all the hallmarks of an intense internal fight. Lots of signals rhe last few days. The resignation of Colin Kahl, who made the most extreme comments about how long it would take to get F-16s to Ukraine being most obvious

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1659600003252338710?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Pentagon’s $3 billion accounting error in security assistance for Ukraine happens to be the maximum dollar amount Colin Kahl estimated 36 used F-16 Block 30/32s would cost. …

[Tartiflette Fan]

The Pentagon’s $3 billion accounting error in security assistance for Ukraine happens to be the maximum dollar amount Colin Kahl estimated 36 used F-16 Block 30/32s would cost. …

Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?

[BBadanov]

Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?


My estimation would be for initial GSE, weapons and spares.
Would not include 20-yr LOT costs - that would be up to UKR, and incoming support (NATO et al).

[GlobalNav]

Just when you thought this regime couldn't get any madder. Russia bans 500 Americans over "anti-Russian actions", including, wait for it, "people involved in the persecution of dissidents" who took part in the January 6 storming of the Capitol...

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1871495/#


To be on Russia's s**t list is a mark of honor, sort of like being on our former president's s**t list.

[GlobalNav]

The de-facto Western fighter embargo of Ukraine by the DC De-escalation faction was one of its last public policy ditches.

Losing the public F-16 embargo fight meant one of the De-escalation crowd had to fall on his sword for the faction's patron.

This has all the hallmarks of an intense internal fight. Lots of signals rhe last few days. The resignation of Colin Kahl, who made the most extreme comments about how long it would take to get F-16s to Ukraine being most obvious

Very smart guy. Academic. No military experience. Almost failed confirmation in the Senate.

From Politico: Kahl has also been one of the administration’s top officials making the case against sending U.S.-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between the Biden administration and lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans.

Despite a plea from Kyiv for more advanced jets, Kahl has argued sending F-16s would take years and cost billions of dollars, while noting fighters aren’t Ukraine’s most immediate need.

[fdr]

As I have posted before, I'm uncertain what they can add..,

they signify resolve. Resolve is the fastest way to get the point across to the Kremlin that there is no better option than leaving Ukraine and accepting the consequences of their self inflicted disaster. Despite the RT talking heads hysteria, the existential threat to the RF as a federated state arises from the Kremlin, not Kyiv.

The Kremlin deliberately directed war crimes which were gleefully carried out by the Kremlin's combatants. The Kremlin attacked Ukraine from a 3rd party nation Belarus, and from illegally occupied parts of Ukraine, and remarkably,Ukraine has never reciprocated in an old testament way. 70% of UN member nations have voiced their condemnation of Russia, 5 countries support Russia, the usual despotic 5. Even China condemns Russia's actions and considers the Russian claims of sovereignty that have been purported by the Kremlin to be unrecognised.

Russia needs to get the message that their empire aspirations are out of place with the world, and that comes with a cost to Russia to continue their crime spree.

The F16 is symbolic, A10 and AH1's would have added as much, but having longer range A-A and more lift for A-G is not nothing to the troops sitting in foxholes defending their homeland.

The Ukraine flight crew are combat experienced and just want the tools to do the job that they put their lives on the line for every day. They are committed, and Ukrainians have shown they are adaptable and quick studies. They are motivated beyond belief.

The Kremlin doesn't seem to get the historic message, that apart from being a war crime today, indiscriminate targeting of civilians always acts to increase the resolve of the other side; since Guernica, London, Coventry, Bremen, Frankfurt, Köln, Tokyo, Warsaw, Belgrade etc... the only time a political result followed was with Linebacker II, and that was fragged against military and industrial targets, killed a lot of civilians, and the response from Hanoi stated: "...impress upon Nixon that the bombing was not the reason for this decision", the CPV Politburo told Nixon that "halting the bombing was not a precondition for further talks". Targeting civil populations doesn't win friends or minds, it doesn't break resolve, it always increases it; it is a war crime. The Kremlin signed off on these tenets of civilised behaviour, before they demolished Grozny, then did it again, and then invaded more or less every country nearby that they had treaties with. Is the food at The Hague really that good?

[ORAC]

Ukraine repels 'massive' drone attack on Kyiv, says military

Kyiv’s air defences successfully repelled a new Russian drone attack overnight but falling debris caused some damage in the Ukrainian capital, the military said on Saturday.

Agence France-Presse reports that the head of Kyiv’s civil and military administration, Serhiy Popko, said in an update on Telegram:

This night, the aggressor again carried out a massive drone attack. All detected air targets were destroyed by the forces and means of our air defence. No strikes on Kyiv were performed!

Falling debris caused a fire in a residential building in Darnytskyi district but it was extinguished without casualties, he said.

[Buster Hyman]

Ukraine repels 'massive' drone attack on Kyiv, says military
Somewhat reminiscent of Hitler switching to bombing the populace instead of key military targets. Didn't work then & it's not working now. Clearly, just like Adolf's inner circle, nobody is game to tell Vlad that it's just not going to change the resolve of the Ukrainians.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1659630335393513473?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The Wagner mercenary group is reported to be pulling its most experienced members out of Ukraine and sending them to Sudan, with remaining "unnecessary fighters" being left to die in Bakhmut. It may rebrand itself as the "Musicians" or "Orchestra" private military company.

[ORAC]

Nine T-90s taken out by HIMARS in a single strike…

https://twitter.com/smartuacat/status/1659500194143039488?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1659587711546580993?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A



https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1210x538/image_f1166d7251845a09ca033e847200f3dbc44d2422.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets and is open to discussions on their possible transfer, the country's acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on May 19.

Speaking with Danish media outlets DR and Ritzau, Poulsen didn't provide any further details on the training, saying its format would be finalized with allies during the next month.

The Defense Ministry says it is considering donating F-16s to Ukraine. Denmark has 46 F-16s.

[DuncanDoenitz]

What a remarkable aeroplane we are discussing. Developed in the '70s as a cheap, light-weight, fighter; introduced into Europe 40 years ago to replace Starfighters, Freedom Fighters and Super Sabres, and it still tops the wish-list of anyone being threatened or oppressed by an evil Galactic Empire. (Speaking of which, it also still makes Star Wars movie props look like movie props).

[NutLoose]

Russia’s woes in building new tanks, repairing or even refurbishing old stocks, optics and ball bearings are all normally sourced from the west, so they have a severe shortage now hence the low output in armour etc.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&utm_medium=social&sh=120a1f8323f2

Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?


Surely Poland can do that with most of it as they operate them.

[NutLoose]

Very smart guy. Academic. No military experience. Almost failed confirmation in the Senate.

From Politico: Kahl has also been one of the administration’s top officials making the case against sending U.S.-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between the Biden administration and lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans.

Despite a plea from Kyiv for more advanced jets, Kahl has argued sending F-16s would take years and cost billions of dollars, while noting fighters aren’t Ukraine’s most immediate need.

if they come from say the boneyard or a recent ANG I cannot see why they would cost billions, they have already been paid for many years ago when initially purchased, all you would lose is residual value. And especially as several European countries are looking at retiring the type, remarkable is the fact that the F16 is the aircraft deemed to be the fighter of choice to go up against both its modernised contemporaries and later Russian models.

[ORAC]

Top of Ukraine’s wish list because so many are available as most European Air Forces are retiring them as they are replaced by 5th gen fighters.

I am sure they’d love Typhoon, Rafale or F-35 but no-one has any they want to give away.

[NutLoose]

Watch the driver duck, I doubt it helped him though, that UAV was an RPG armed version.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659590947015995394

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659590947015995394



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x675/image_4e0bb159fde4557ab78fce527163f5968a2a6ed3.jpeg

[GeeRam]

Top of Ukraine’s wish list because so many are available as most European Air Forces are retiring them as they are replaced by 5th fighters.


Norway sold theirs to Romania, the Dutch have sold two thirds of their fleet to Draken for Red Air contract work, the Belgian's are using their's until all life ex'd, which only leaves the Danes fleet left, if the USA don't hand over some before being turned into QF-16 drone targets.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659600154691878923?cxt=HHwWloC-mYfjioguAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659600154691878923?cxt=HHwWloC-mYfjioguAAAA

[NutLoose]

Norway sold theirs to Romania, the Dutch have sold two thirds of their fleet to Draken for Red Air contract work, the Belgian's are using their's until all life ex'd, which only leaves the Danes fleet left, if the USA don't hand over some before being turned into QF-16 drone targets.


I would think peacetime and wartime life ex are two different things. Denmark has been mentioned as has the Dutch.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659534055128309760?cxt=HHwWgICxicfb7IcuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659534055128309760?cxt=HHwWgICxicfb7IcuAAAA

[Just This Once...]

"You got time to duck?"


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/738x540/2023_05_20_at_10_53_18_636c475ca6e3bc6f061d690a9b3091e1e6e9b 7ad.png

Not sure it helped.

[NutLoose]

Bear with me on this as a lot of links to try and build up a picture of what is happening.

Ok Strikes reported on Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659634420230266908?cxt=HHwWuICxrcmtmoguAAAA

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659634420230266908?cxt=HHwWuICxrcmtmoguAAAA

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659635078077489152

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659635078077489152


helicopter’s moving to Mariupol earlier

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659637532257034255

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659637532257034255

They’re various reports at what was hit and with what. Storm Shadow and HIMARS get a mention

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659643178335580161?cxt=HHwWgsC9qa6rnoguAAAA

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1659643178335580161?cxt=HHwWgsC9qa6rnoguAAAA

The debate as to what was used.
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1659644496416481306

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1659644496416481306

[GeeRam]

I would think peacetime and wartime life ex are two different things. Denmark has been mentioned as has the Dutch.

Belgium AF are due to retire their highest houred example sometime in next few months when it reaches the 8,000 hrs mark.
How close to the 8000 hr mark the rest of the fleet are is another matter. Belgium isn't being even mentioned, just Dutch and Danes so far.

Dutch still have one squadron left, plus the Danes fleet of about 30 operational ones left, would give about 40-45 jets for Ukraine?

[NutLoose]

War or no war, you cannot keep a farmer from working his land, tank or no tank.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659121395014713345?cxt=HHwWgoDS0cmHsYYuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1659121395014713345?cxt=HHwWgoDS0cmHsYYuAAAA

[rattman]

Norway sold theirs to Romania, the Dutch have sold two thirds of their fleet to Draken for Red Air contract work, the Belgian's are using their's until all life ex'd, which only leaves the Danes fleet left, if the USA don't hand over some before being turned into QF-16 drone targets.

They already stripped AMARC of the one suitable to turned into drones. You can download the list of every plane stored there, serial number and when it went in. F-16's fall into 2 catagories, either they have been there for 10 + years just sitting outside or there was about a dozen that have only been there for a 2-3 years

People talk about as if theres this big stockpile of F-16 just sitting around. There isn't they are popular aircraft so retirement announcements are followed up quickly be announcement they are being sold to someone else

[NutLoose]

Portugal has joined the coalition to train pilots and Groundcrew.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659635864064983040?cxt=HHwWgIC84c6Bm4guAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659635864064983040?cxt=HHwWgIC84c6Bm4guAAAA

[NutLoose]

It says the US will provide some according to a press statement.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659602171682324480?cxt=HHwWgIC8-brYi4guAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1659602171682324480?cxt=HHwWgIC8-brYi4guAAAA

[fdr]

The Wagner mercenary group is reported to be pulling its most experienced members out of Ukraine and sending them to Sudan, with remaining "unnecessary fighters" being left to die in Bakhmut. It may rebrand itself as the "Musicians" or "Orchestra" private military company.

Which raises the question - does mr E. Prigozin get an airplane ticket to Khartoum, or stay in Bakhmut? Hard to tell which side of the ledger his performance falls.

[NutLoose]

:suspect:

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1659573289931403266?cxt=HHwWhMCzkanH_ocuAAAA

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1659573289931403266?cxt=HHwWhMCzkanH_ocuAAAA

[Xeptu]

Which raises the question - does mr E. Prigozin get an airplane ticket to Khartoum, or stay in Bakhmut? Hard to tell which side of the ledger his performance falls.

I reckon he and his senior officers are bugging out completely. Surely he couldn't risk not getting whacked by at least one group of elites when he comes out of Ukraine.

[NutLoose]

I do not know if this is a direct quote on Twitter but the interesting wording is highlighted. So does that mean other types are being looked at


Biden told G7 leaders the United States will support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots on advanced aircraft, including F-16s. The decision marks a stark turnaround for Biden, who previously said he did not believe that Kyiv needed the planes.m - CNN

[fineline]

3) Concern is made of the time taken to teach the pilots English so that they may be able to read the manuals, and receive instruction in English. It would take a few good Ukrainian technical translators around a week to put the required documents into a language that the pilots can understand. I would assume that most of these manuals already exist in Russian and Polish, if not Ukrainian. As the British Army discovered when they started training tank crews, a few translators could cover most situations, and the bilingual volunteers that came out of the woodwork were plentiful.


No need - I've seen Top Gun: Maverick so I know the first stage of advanced fighter pilot training involves throwing the manual in the bin.

[rigpiggy]

Belgium AF are due to retire their highest houred example sometime in next few months when it reaches the 8,000 hrs mark.
How close to the 8000 hr mark the rest of the fleet are is another matter. Belgium isn't being even mentioned, just Dutch and Danes so far.

Dutch still have one squadron left, plus the Danes fleet of about 30 operational ones left, would give about 40-45 jets for Ukraine?. Only need them for about another 200 hrs. Then get block 70

[Imagegear]

I am well aware that truth is the first casualty before and after a war starts, however I fail to understand why, after months of being told that Russia has almost no missiles left, they are still raining down across Ukraine, 30 or so almost every night, It would also seem that when we were being told that Russia is running out of heavy weapons, and a significant number of troops were being decimated, that they are still fielding enough to hold the Donbas, Crimea and other eastern regions of the country.

Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.

Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?

IG
.

[wondering]

I stopped believing those 'assessments' long time ago. Probably, RU can´t afford to shoot 30 missiles daily. But, I am sure Russia can continue the war at a lower intensity for many years.

From a cost-benefit point of view it looks something like this for Russia:

https://newrepublic.com/article/172505/putin-ukraine-invasion-russia-economy

Does Putin care about the economic fallout? I doubt it.

[dixi188]

How many missiles a day could Russian factories produce?

[fitliker]

How many missiles are made in factories not in Russia ?
Stalin moved most factories away from the suburbs of Moscow , two thousand miles east . The surprise the German Nazi army must have been like Napoleon when he got to look at the Volga River and see the devastation that the Russians had done to their own crops .
Putin has used a similar tactic by moving missile manufacturing to North Korea and Irans underground factories . The downside is now North Korea and Iran have missile technology that they could not have developed by themselves . Combined with cheap Chinese strategic materials that could bring regional instability to a lot of places far removed from front lines as defined by the hotel bar media types .

[Video Mixdown]

Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.
Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?
IG.
I really don’t think it’s a question of accepting misrepresentation or indoctrination. It’s hardly surprising that both sides try to conceal their weaknesses and exaggerate their strengths, and it’s up to each one of us to believe what we choose to based on how much we trust the information source. Personally I think the value of propaganda is vastly overrated - millions of words can be spread all over social media but it has no effect whatsoever on the battlefield. The truth is very real there.

[Tartiflette Fan]

I am well aware that truth is the first casualty before and after a war starts, however I fail to understand why, after months of being told that Russia has almost no missiles left, they are still raining down across Ukraine, 30 or so almost every night, It would also seem that when we were being told that Russia is running out of heavy weapons, and a significant number of troops were being decimated, that they are still fielding enough to hold the Donbas, Crimea and other eastern regions of the country.

Is the West and Ukraine so totally overcome with a need to misrepresent the situation, as to make one wonder where the real truth lies? Perhaps I have not been sufficiently enlightened in these matters and need more fervent indoctrination.

Does anyone here have any logical and informed reason as to why I should consider changing my view?

IG
.
There is a difference between truth and estimates based on intelligence/guesswork

[ORAC]

How many missiles a day could Russian factories produce?


https://kyivindependent.com/defense-intelligence-russia-exhausts-old-missile-stockpiles-new-rockets-fresh-from-assembly-line/

​​​​​​​Russia has likely used up its missile stockpiles but has successfully established a production line for fresh munitions.

Fragments from Russian missiles suggest that they have just “left the assembly line,” Defense Intelligence Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitsky said (https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/polyuvannya-patriot-ta-zriv-kontrnastupu-1684444380.html) to RBC-Ukraine on May 19.

According to Skibitsky, Russia is able to produce up to 67 missiles per month, including 35 Kh-101s cruise missiles, 25 Kalibr cruise missiles, five M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M system, and two Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles.

This means that Moscow successfully managed to acquire components for advanced munitions despite Western sanctions aiming (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sanctions-hamper-russias-ability-make-advanced-weapons-nato-says-2022-09-16/) to prevent that.

The Russian military appears to have changed the strategic use of its missile arsenal, Skibitsky further commented.

In winter, the shellings were targeted to cripple Ukraine’s energy structure.

Now, Russia shifted its focus to Ukraine’s air defense, including the newly supplied U.S. Patriot systems, and to disrupting Kyiv’s counteroffensive preparations.

[rattman]

Its being reported that denmark has cancelled the sale of 18 F-16's to Draken, there is expectation that danes and dutch will announce combined transfer for 40 ish aircraft

[GeeRam]

How many missiles a day could Russian factories produce?

The assumption at the moment from what I've read is maybe up to around 40 Kalibr per month.

[Xeptu]

It's almost impossible to know what Russia's factories are producing. The fuel oil that powers them must be used. What can't be sold must be burnt to keep the flow going. If the flow stops then the supply wells are lost. It follows that oil will be used in the factories that were always using it whether they are producing anything or not. Must be nice to have an abundance of energy to burn for no other reason that it must.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/babaktaghvaee1/status/1659913756124618754?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


#BREAKING: I was informed that, 45 ex-Danish & Dutch F-16AM/BM Fighting Falcon fighter jets will be delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force as an attrition replacement for its lost MiG-29s during the war with Russia.

SABCA in Belgium will overhaul & upgrade the aircraft before delivery.

[Thrust Augmentation]

t would also seem that when we were being told that Russia is running out of heavy weapons, and a significant number of troops were being decimated, that they are still fielding enough to hold the Donbas, Crimea and other eastern regions of the country.

The "Special Operation" was to invade & beat Ukraine into submission, but here we are & they are only managing to hold those gains (some old) & no more, it's inevitable that this is going to change.

That an apparent superpower's invasion of a smaller country has stalled & retreated makes me think that something has run out / been decimated.

[dream747]

What are the chances Russia will resort to using nuclear weapons to keep themselves up with the game? Really doesn’t seem like the Kremlin will accept defeat.

[GlobalNav]

What are the chances Russia will resort to using nuclear weapons to keep themselves up with the game? Really doesn’t seem like the Kremlin will accept defeat.

It’s all speculation. A rational decision maker would place a country’s survival at a higher value than the failure to steal another’s territory. The use of nuclear weapons might be justified to preserve the nation’s existence, but to guarantee an imperialistic victory? The risk created by the use of nuclear weapons is retaliation in kind, which is a greater threat to the nation’s existence. So it just doesn’t make sense for Russia to use nukes to avoid losing the conflict with Ukraine which doesn’t threaten Russia’s existence. But does Russia have a rational leadership? So far there’s no evidence of it.

[elkadad]

The West should make certain Russia (Putin) realizes going nuclear is suicide. If Biden/NATO waffles and suggests only 'a significant conventional response,' Putin will just be emboldened. He must be made to understand that the response will be in kind. Power is all he understands.

[Big Pistons Forever]

What are the chances Russia will resort to using nuclear weapons to keep themselves up with the game? Really doesn’t seem like the Kremlin will accept defeat.

I would suggest that the Russian “strategy” if you could call it that has been to hope that the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine and that Russia can wait for Ukraine to use up their war fighting capability.

So far this is obviously not working but who knows what things will look like in a year. The most likely scenario is a stalemate with frozen lines. From Russia’s POV this can be spun as a victory.

I think the use of Nukes is increasingly less likely. The blow back would be tremendous, crucially the loss of support from China.

[fdr]

What are the chances Russia will resort to using nuclear weapons to keep themselves up with the game? Really doesn’t seem like the Kremlin will accept defeat.

You can game that out yourself, it's not hard and it's not pretty. It is a disaster for the Kremlin to go that way in all rational cases. There are infinite possibilities but there are limited generals scenarios...

Kremlin goes tac nuke:

Nuke on Ukraine; No response by anyone (Not likely but it is on the spectrum). Ukraine is upwind of southern Russia, and half a dozen Stans and China. Kremlin gets rude note from the nearest thing to being their friends. The UN does... what it always does, disregard their obligations. Ukraine does... nothing? why? why would they not then open up direct action against the Kremlin with every means to hand? The Kremlin gets ash wherever they lit a candle, and contaminate every waterway ands piece of turf used for food production, including their own bread basket.
Nuke on Ukraine; NATO sends ground forces into Ukraine IAW UN obligations, (yes they are not obliged under NATO, but they are organised to act, the UN is organised to shine backsides). NATO targets all Kremlin assets in Ukraine and takes out the black sea fleet, Kerch bridge, all rail lines between southern Russia and eastern Ukraine, and every bridge, every airport and every HQ in eastern Ukraine frequented by the kremlins criminal hordes. Unlikely? risky? yup, but better than the next option.
Russia misses Ukraine - Kremlin fires 1 shot at Poland, or the UK which has been really irritating Putin. Article 5 gets invoked, and in the case of the UK, they have freedom of a nuclear response independent of NATO. Not good. Poland? sayonara to Koenigsberg... the blue comes off the flag there, and they certainly would invoke Art. 5, and demand a response. Least response is item 2 above, France, UK, USA going nuke on Moscow is not a high likelihood without France, UK or USA turf being glassed.

....
1,999,999. Something else. None of it good and none of it alters the fact that Putin doesn't make friends, or win terrain as a result, and doesn't get xmas cards from anyone else. The RT talking heads will be in the gun for being the depraved individuals that talked the Kremlin into making the worst move in human history, and assuring that a famine occurs in the RF, scores of Russians die from fallout from being downwind of fort fumbles folly, and generally putting the RF into the sin bin for a few centuries. Turning the whole of Ukraine into glass is hardly on the cards, and that means that Russia has guaranteed that people who talk and look like Russians will have murderous intent against their population for the next few decades or so. Imagine a really annoyed Taliban that has been given a true purpose in life to make life miserable for every russian who was submissive to their leaders whims and criminal intent.

There is no military gain from going nuke, and there is every negative that follows from being the one who nuked a neighbour as they were in a tantrum in their cot having lost their rattle on 24 February 2022.

Given the state of play of the corruption in the RF, the probability of a russian TNW/ICBM actually working is a coin toss or less, does anyone think they have reprocessed the cores every 10 years since 1980, when the wheels started to come off the wagon, or from 1991 when it all collapsed into mass decay? The missile hardware, is it more likely or not to be as well kept as the T-72's and BMPs etc were?

The Kremlin trots out their threats every few months, but the underlying limitation of a weapon that will invoke a consequence that is destructive to the user in this case due to geography and meteorology, and will result in a response that is far worse than the justification that is assumed to demand their use remains. One can argue that the final justification to use the A-Bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki failed and resulted in unintended consequences that are the subject of this discussion now. Gar Alperovitz raises credible evidence as to why Japan was attacked, and whether that actually was necessary or indeed met the expected outcome of the justification.

What is most unlikely is a non response, to not respond to a TNW in a manner that immediately and materially stings RF interests in Ukraine is to give over to the ugly bully on the block, and Russia has tried for over a millennia to have that go at empire, with more sour grapes than success to date.

China is the country that will have the greatest impact from fallout after Russia and the 'stans and has historical reason to hit back at Russia, consider that East Russia from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk and out to Sakhalin would need to brush up on their Mandarin.

As the use of nukes is insane, in the current state of decision making in the RF, their use cannot be ruled out, but they do not gain a damned thing for Russia other than decades of guerrilla warfare, famine, breakup of their federation, and loss of land in reparations to China for contaminating western China, and those are the best outcomes. Even if they actually get a form of bargaining benefit from their use, they still lose their federation and have an insurgency for decades to come, and zero utility out of the land that they "came to liberate from the ?Nazi's?".

IMHO :ugh:

On the bright side, don't need to worry about global warming, or tax returns etc... and we prove that there is zero intelligent life in the universe. Having watched an inert MIRV re-entry, and landing in a target zone, the very thought of their use is unpleasant, 10 years in supporting the MAD status quo didn't improve their standing as anything other than an abomination. That taking heads would suggest their use speaks volumes to the morality of the country.

[Low average]

It took the US 20 years to be defeated in Vietnam and another 20 years for NATO countries in Afghanistan.

Russia is now embroiled in their own Vietnam and will be for a long while. They probably won't win with force. Nuclear option would be suicide, so must use their powerful propoganda machine to slowly divide NATO countries internally and without while keeping their own compliant.

The information battle is key to them, and they understand it better than us. If the Russian people knew the realities of this war, their unity would crumble. Poor Russians from the East dying in the trenches while the Moscowvites enjoy cocktails, for example.

Our understanding of information attack must improve, otherwise, the threat is we will remain on the defensive until the barrage of Russian propoganda slowly shifts Western public opinion and Ukraine is left to the wolves.

[Video Mixdown]

Our understanding of information attack must improve, otherwise, the threat is we will remain on the defensive until the barrage of Russian propoganda slowly shifts Western public opinion and Ukraine is left to the wolves.
I don't grant Kremlin propaganda the power that you do. For example it is all over newspaper online 'comments' sections and is so comically transparent that you wonder why they bother. Even Lavrov is openly laughed at when he tries it. It is quickly called out when it occasionally appears here, and will continue to be.

[Low average]

I don't grant Kremlin propaganda the power that you do. For example it is all over newspaper online 'comments' sections and is so comically transparent that you wonder why they bother. Even Lavrov is openly laughed at when he tries it. It is quickly called out when it occasionally appears here, and will continue to be.

I agree that it's comically transparent to you and I VM, but we are aware and hardened to it. It's not for us.

It's aimed at the next generation of our (and their) impressionable children, and the currently unified Russians adults. The long game. 20 years?

[pr00ne]

I agree that it's comically transparent to you and I VM, but we are aware and hardened to it. It's not for us.

It's aimed at the next generation of our (and their) impressionable children, and the currently unified Russians adults. The long game. 20 years?

They are losing any campaign to influence “the next generation” big time!
Concerts, parties, events nearly all have a Ukrainian flag as a backdrop and the awareness of the young of the evil intent of Putin’s Russia and the enormous crime of the Ukranian invasion is high.

You should be more concerned with the attitude of far right Republicans like Trump and co, that are the only crack in the west’s solid and enduring support for Ukraine.

As for this mythical Russian propaganda capability, the nonsense of the average Russian TV host and pundit highlights their irrelevance and total ineffectiveness.

[spinex]

Like so much else in that strange corner of our world, Russia's propaganda capabilities are a hollow shell compared to the large and very capable machine that the USSR fielded. The few pro Russia commentators that cop such a beating on forums and wider social media lately, appear to be mostly enthusiastic amateurs, those misfits that used to cling to the mantra; "when the revolution comes". I'd go so far as to say that there is a greater chance of the Russian Federation falling apart, than of them winning this match, either medium or long term.

[Low average]

They are losing any campaign to influence “the next generation” big time!
Concerts, parties, events nearly all have a Ukrainian flag as a backdrop and the awareness of the young of the evil intent of Putin’s Russia and the enormous crime of the Ukranian invasion is high.

You should be more concerned with the attitude of far right Republicans like Trump and co, that are the only crack in the west’s solid and enduring support for Ukraine.

As for this mythical Russian propaganda capability, the nonsense of the average Russian TV host and pundit highlights their irrelevance and total ineffectiveness.

2 years in, support is still strong...but over 10-20? Imagine, if you will, a group of young boys in a school browsing twitter watching the latest death videos from Ukraine.

As they scroll through the videos, a tweet by a seemingly credible European man dressed in a suit, declares that the US started the war, Biden is a fool and its all NATO's fault. They briefly register this and then move on to the next video. The seed is sown.

The lie repeats for 10-20 years. Is the same thing happening in Russian or Chinese schools? I doubt it. They've put an information diode in the way. I think the threat is real - the information diode allows countries like Russia and China to have a much greater impact than they would otherwise have, but it's slow.

[pr00ne]

2 years in, support is still strong...but over 10-20? Imagine, if you will, a group of young boys in a school browsing twitter watching the latest death videos from Ukraine.

As they scroll through the videos, a tweet by a seemingly credible European man dressed in a suit, declares that the US started the war, Biden is a fool and its all NATO's fault. They briefly register this and then move on to the next video. The seed is sown.

The lie repeats for 10-20 years. Is the same thing happening in Russian or Chinese schools? I doubt it. They've put an information diode in the way. I think the threat is real - the information diode allows countries like Russia and China to have a much greater impact than they would otherwise have, but it's slow.

Repeating a blatantly obvious lie over and over again is a sure fire way to destroy any credibility.

The present youngsters are extremely media and social media savvy and very aware of what is going on around the world as posted by the actual people experiencing events as opposed to polished news and propaganda outlets.
This is an obvious benefit and advantage of social media often overlooked by critics.

And 20 years? Russia? Really?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1659911694724870144?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​China 🇨🇳, Uzbekistan 🇺🇿and Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 signed a document on the next steps to build a railway bypassing Russia 🇷🇺.

Thus, these countries may have a shorter route to Europe.

Russia, of course, will lose income from the transit of freight trains through its territory.

Well, good luck, "partners" - Lavrov wrote on his telegram channel.

[JustinHeywood]

What are the chances Russia will resort to using nuclear weapons to keep themselves up with the game? Really doesn’t seem like the Kremlin will accept defeat.

Some very thoughtful posts above since this question was posed, but I would add that currently the word 'Russia' and 'the Kremlin" are practical synonyms for Vlad Putin. There is very little evidence that anyone but Vlad has much influence on events on the Russian side.

Putin cannot 'accept defeat'. To lose this battle is almost certainly a death sentence for him. He may be MUCH more willing to roll the dice with a nuke if the situation deteriorates further. He's got very little to lose.

[NutLoose]

That depends on the response, they could hit all his bunkers, homes and yacht. With all the stuff going on behind the lines hitting his car with the likes of a smuggled in javelin in Moscow would be feasible?

[NutLoose]

It's almost impossible to know what Russia's factories are producing. The fuel oil that powers them must be used. What can't be sold must be burnt to keep the flow going. If the flow stops then the supply wells are lost. It follows that oil will be used in the factories that were always using it whether they are producing anything or not. Must be nice to have an abundance of energy to burn for no other reason that it must.

A production requires skilled Labour and the mobilisation took care of a lot of those through indiscriminate recruiting resulting in them kicking up weeds.

[jolihokistix]

They are said to be preparing a resumption of nuclear testing. If this is true, it does suggest that they may not be 100% confident in predicting what will happen (if anything) in the unlikely event that someone unhinged should actually hit the button(s).

[NutLoose]

Russia says Bakhmut has fallen but Zelenskyy says no, but destroyed.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1660191508874633217

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1660191508874633217


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/FT/status/1660194135897169921

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/FT/status/1660194135897169921

[Sepp]

Remind me - how many times have various Russians claimed to have taken Bakhmut? I've lost count.

[Tartiflette Fan]

That depends on the response, they could hit all his bunkers, homes and yacht. With all the stuff going on behind the lines hitting his car with the likes of a smuggled in javelin in Moscow would be feasible?

Many fewer tanks on a battlefield to aim at than fast-moving cars on city streets. Standard security procedure would, I believe, be several identical cars with the target choosing a different one for each journey. Zelensky has, in any case , said that they are not trying to kill him ( which I believe).

[Tartiflette Fan]

Remind me - how many times have various Russians claimed to have taken Bakhmut? I've lost count.

Bloggers I follow (Denys Davydov, Jake Broe ) have been saying for weeks ( backed up by detailed maps ) that Ukraine only held 15%, then 10% and continually decreasing, so they could easily be down to the last one percent or out altogether now. Propaganda aside, I'm not sure how important it is, because it has been said repeatedly that Bakhmut has no strategic importance, but its defence allowed the UKA to use the basic formula that attackers lose many more men in attacking prepared positions than defenders, to continue bleeding the Russians - particularly Wagner.

If Wagner now withdraws and goes back to Africa as is being reported, the UKA will have removed one of the more determined foes from the fight.

[Yellow Sun]

The Russian Firehose of Falsehood model (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html). A Rand Corporation paper that is worth reading.

YS

[pr00ne]

Top of Ukraine’s wish list because so many are available as most European Air Forces are retiring them as they are replaced by 5th fighters.

I am sure they’d love Typhoon, Rafale or F-35 but no-one has any they want t9 give away.

Er, check in with the Tory Government! They have Typhoons they are planning on retiring and some they have already retired…

[Rockie_Rapier]

The Russian Firehose of Falsehood model (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html). A Rand Corporation paper that is worth reading.

YS
As Stalin said, "a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth."

[ORAC]

Er, check in with the Tory Government! They have Typhoons they are planning on retiring and some they have already retired…
Tranche 1 Typhoons are planned to be stripped of parts in a “reduce to produce” programme to support the remaining fleet before the hulks are scrapped.

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2022-12-07/105283

They could be handed over if cash was available to buy replacement parts fir the RAF instead - plus cash to buy spares to support them in Ukrainian service of course,. But, as I said, there is no indication the government or RAF wants to go down that path.

There were those, including myself, urging it be done, even if not militarily significant, to “prime the pump” for others to supply F-16s (as we did with tanks) - but the recent commitments to do so make it unnecessary.

[Video Mixdown]

Er, check in with the Tory Government! They have Typhoons they are planning on retiring and some they have already retired…
F-16 has been Ukrainians preference for a long time, and now that the US has approved it there's a plan to provide them with what they want. The UK appears to have a role in this plan, as it has in many other weapons and training procurement plans since all this started. An attempt to introduce a sly anti-Tory political slant into the discussion is unwarranted.
​​

[pr00ne]

F-16 has been Ukrainians preference for a long time, and now that the US has approved it there's a plan to provide them with what they want. The UK appears to have a role in this plan, as it has in many other weapons and training procurement plans since all this started. An attempt to introduce a sly anti-Tory political slant into the discussion is unwarranted.
​​

But factual!

There is only one Government in the whole of Europe current downsizing and reducing military capability. Every other Government is increasing and expanding defence, except our bunch.

[Winemaker]

Some very thoughtful posts above since this question was posed, but I would add that currently the word 'Russia' and 'the Kremlin" are practical synonyms for Vlad Putin. There is very little evidence that anyone but Vlad has much influence on events on the Russian side.

Putin cannot 'accept defeat'. To lose this battle is almost certainly a death sentence for him. He may be MUCH more willing to roll the dice with a nuke if the situation deteriorates further. He's got very little to lose.
I would be extremely surprised if there have not been direct contacts from NATO to Putin explicitly telling him what the NATO response to a Russian nuke would be; it would not be pretty IMHO. The Russkie 'commentators' demanding Russia use nukes are not the policy makers, they are the mouth pieces used to spread FUD.

[Video Mixdown]

But factual!
There is only one Government in the whole of Europe current downsizing and reducing military capability. Every other Government is increasing and expanding defence, except our bunch.
A separate discussion that does not belong here.

[Low average]

The Russian Firehose of Falsehood model (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html). A Rand Corporation paper that is worth reading.

YS

Yellow Sun, that is a fantastic article, thanks.

Insightful quotes: "don't expect to counter the firehose of falsehood with the squirtgun of truth"....and when discussing ways to counter the attack - "Compete!", otherwise you're always on the defensive.

[havoc]

Just a quick note a leader must have willingness to demonstrate the capability and resolve to use a nuke in response to escalation.

BUFF mission in the 80s if needed, not likely the doctrine has changed except maybe the platform or weapon.

[Beamr]

Ukraine MoD has made a half an hour video called "Absolute evil" of Russian war crimes in Ukraine to be shown to the Russian POW's.
It is graphic, as can be imagined. An in English narrated version of the video can be found from this site:

https://www.documentingreality.com/forum/f266/absolute-evil-russian-war-crimes-ukraine-244175/

English version:
"The documentary about the war crimes of Russian army. Without cuts and unblurred. Shootings of civilians. Executions of prisoners. Rocket strikes on residential areas. Terrible murders of kids and parents. Torturing hostages.

The authors of the documentary give the names of those who committed these crimes and prove that the elimination of Ukrainians as an ethnic group is Russia's military strategy."

[NutLoose]

Short, sweet and nails it.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660326383996788736

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660326383996788736

[NutLoose]

They appear to be crapping themselves In Belgorod


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660213125788966912?cxt=HHwWgIC94dXCoYouAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660213125788966912?cxt=HHwWgIC94dXCoYouAAAA

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1660381936966090755?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Unconfirmed Reports that an Su-35 Multirole Fighter Aircraft of the Russian Air Force which was conducting Combat Operations against the Kherson Region, was Shot Down by Ukrainian Air Defenses over the Black Sea.

The Su-35 was reportedly Armed with KAB-500S Guided-Aerial Bombs which were being utilized against Air Defense Sites in the Kherson Region.

Footage of what is claimed to be the Su-35 launching its Guided-Aerial Bombs and Flares off the Coast of the Mykolaiv Region at Targets in Kherson right before it was Shot Down by a Surface-to-Air Missile.

​​​​​​​Ukrainian Sources are reporting that the Russian Pilot of the Su-35 was Killed in the Crash.

[NutLoose]

Well said report on the Bakhmut offensive and the futility of Russia supposed victory.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660270207963635712?cxt=HHwWgICxjaW9u4ouAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660270207963635712?cxt=HHwWgICxjaW9u4ouAAAA

[NutLoose]

And to make the futility of it even more striking Ukraine is close to encircling it.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1660322531998302213?cxt=HHwWioCwxfmi04ouAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1660322531998302213?cxt=HHwWioCwxfmi04ouAAAA

[nevillestyke]

They appear to be crapping themselves In Belgorod




https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660213125788966912?cxt=HHwWgIC94dXCoYouAAAA

Just what Putin would want: armed prospective turncoats.

[Xeptu]

A production requires skilled Labour and the mobilisation took care of a lot of those through indiscriminate recruiting resulting in them kicking up weeds.

Exactly, It takes me back to the 70's where a machine shop had been ticking along quite nicely for 20 years or so. When the first guy retired, despite trying a number of replacement operators no-one could make the machine work with any degree of precision, the machine had to be scrapped. Five years on the entire machine shop was scrapped. Russia has this problem, their infrastructure is old and that guy who had been looking after it for years is gone. After the mobilization a number of fires and failures were being reported and yes some of them may well be sabotage, but many would be old infrastructure syndrome too. This story was the very first thing that sprang to mind when I started hearing about those failures. You don't need to lose too many of them before it all rolls up in a ball. "But Ivan used to look after that, no-one else knows what he used to do back there".

[NutLoose]

Good shot lol.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1660393272089485324?cxt=HHwWmIC9pci484ouAAAA


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x985/image_60352fdb96d998c9c064bdc5f5eabfc3fc972ec6.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

They hit a Russian airfield last night, no reports of the damage, that’s an old picture.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1660237022403911680

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1660237022403911680

[fdr]

Well said report on the Bakhmut offensive and the futility of Russia supposed victory.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660270207963635712?cxt=HHwWgICxjaW9u4ouAAAA
"The winter-spring joint campaign of the RF Armed Forces and Wagner to exterminate our infantry on the Donetsk sector of the front ended successfully."Igor Girkin AKA "Strelkov" in reference to Bakhmut.
History will show whether the Ukraine action in accepting the opportunity to deplete the invaders forces in such a location was brilliant or wasteful. Suspect that it will be seen to have been effective if still costly in the lives of the defenders. The same history will not be kind on the invaders stupidity.
To describe Prighozin's "Victory" in Bakhmut as "phyrric" does a disservice to Phyrrus. At the Battle of Asculum, Phyrrus lost 3500 troops to the Roman's 6000, and made the comment when the outcome was called a victory that they would not be able to survive more victories like that. Phyrrus recognised the situation to the extent he disengaged from his actions up the calf of Italy, and instead went and spent 3 years dukin' it out in western Sicily against the Carthaginians.
Smart dude.
Hannibal rated Phyrrus as one of the top generals in history (#2's after Alexander the Great)
After the "If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined." comment at Asculum (todays Ascoli Satriano, SW of Foggia, Apulia), 279BC, and going and beating up on the Carthaginians, and getting on the bad side of the cities he was there to help, he ended up back in SE Italy in 285BC and got defeated by the home team from Rome, making his comment of 279BC prophetic as well as memorable (thanks, Pliny).
The difference between Phyrrus and Prigozin and Prigozin's master, Lord Farquard, is that Phyrrus was a great general, and his losses in what he considered as a disaster, but which was otherwise recorded as a victory were 1:5 overall, whereas the invaders of Bakhmut are 7:1 or thereabouts, about 35 times worse loss rate to gain illegal occupancy as fertiliser of a city that has no particular strategic relevance, suggesting that the slug fest was worthy of Westmoreland's tactical moniker, "attrite 'em all", just done wrong.
Prigozin could get a mention in dispatches for attriting the stuffing out of the invaders forces and achieving a rubble strewn waste land fertilised with his own dead.

[staycalm]

"The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom." - Zelensky before Congress


David Sacks via Twitter (@DavidSacks):

What is the significance of Bakhmut? Here’s what the MSM should be telling you:

1) Regional transport & logistics hub: Bakhmut gives Russia access to key roads and rail. It places larger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within easy range of Russian artillery. Hence Zelensky’s earlier comment that the loss of Bakhmut would give the Russians an “open road” to rest of Donetsk.

2) Unique defensive fortifications: Bakhmut’s network of subterranean salt mines and tunnels (100+ miles) contributed to its defensibility. It also provides an underground complex to stockpile weapons, munitions and equipment. Ukraine has other lines of defense but Bakhmut may have been unique.

3) “Fortress Bakhmut”: Bakhmut became a rallying cry for Ukrainian resistance. Zelensky called it “the fortress of our morale” and gave a Bakhmut flag to the US Congress. “The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom,” he said.

4) “Operation Meat Grinder”: Russia may have used Bakhmut as a trap to lure in Ukrainian troops and generals, causing them massive casualties and imperiling the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Prigozhin videos claiming the Russians were running out of ammo (which were eagerly reported by MSM) may have been part of the trap.

Sources:
1) reuters(dot)com/world/europe/bakhmut-why-russia-ukraine-are-battling-so-hard-one-small-city-2023-03-14/
2) reuters(dot)com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-says-wants-ukraines-bakhmut-its-underground-cities-2023-01-07/
3) bbc(dot)com/news/world-europe-64877991.amp
4) twitter(dot)com/kathleen_tyson

[jolihokistix]

Re above. Ah, yes, the Russian view. Yes I have read that before, probably several times in this thread, certainly in the first half of it. Even in the MSM. Nothing new there then.

[staycalm]

So you don't see any signs of a "sour grapes" attitude regarding Bakhmut? It wasn't deemed strategically critical earlier, but poo poo'd as no big deal now that it's fallen? Very well. It's really none of my business. Just something I noticed.

[jolihokistix]

There is Ukrainian propaganda, and Russian propaganda, and the truth is probably somewhere in between. I try not to get emotionally dragged too deep in either direction, just reading and noting and biding my time! :ok: I am sure there is some truth in what you have posted, but Ukraine has the most at stake in this fight so I would like to cut them some slack. Perhaps now that Russia has bombed and phosphorus-fired Bakhmut completely flat, (congratulations Russia by the way, on another job well done) it is time for Ukraine to concentrate firepower on it and squash Bakhmut even flatter than it is already, down into the champagne cellars if necessary.

[Sfojimbo]

1) Regional transport & logistics hub: Bakhmut gives Russia access to key roads and rail. It places larger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within easy range of Russian artillery. Hence Zelensky’s earlier comment that the loss of Bakhmut would give the Russians an “open road” to rest of Donetsk.They won't be able to reach Kramatorsk and Sloviansk with 152s. Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are 20 and 24 miles from Bakhmut . It's not really a logistics hub, there's a rail line from the south, but it doesn't connect to anything useful for the Russians and the Bakhmut area sits in a bowel with Ukrainian held high ground to the north and west, that's not a good situation for the Russians.
2) Unique defensive fortifications: Bakhmut’s network of subterranean salt mines and tunnels (100+ miles) contributed to its defensibility. It also provides an underground complex to stockpile weapons, munitions and equipment. Ukraine has other lines of defense but Bakhmut may have been unique. If they load up those mines with munitions, they might lose all those munitions quickly. Their depots need to be many miles behind the lines.
3) “Fortress Bakhmut”: Bakhmut became a rallying cry for Ukrainian resistance. Zelensky called it “the fortress of our morale” and gave a Bakhmut flag to the US Congress. “The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom,” he said.And that 'fortress' completely stalled the Russian winter offensive.
4) “Operation Meat Grinder”: Russia may have used Bakhmut as a trap to lure in Ukrainian troops and generals, causing them massive casualties and imperiling the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Prigozhin videos claiming the Russians were running out of ammo (which were eagerly reported by MSM) may have been part of the trap.The meat grinder worked the other way. Defense has a large advantage, especially in a case like this where giving up ground was part of the defensive plan.

[staycalm]

I'll have to take your word for it as I don't know such details for myself. All I know with certainty is the narrative has shifted again. Should I wonder if I'm being lied to?

[jolihokistix]

Ukraine called it a meat grinder. Russia called it a meat grinder. Perhaps that is the only true thing, a black hole mincer working both ways. From everything I have read from various sources, I sense that the Russian side has provided a much larger proportion.

It was great for Putin too, to feed in the prison population, also to keep Prigozhin busy with lean ammo supplies, and to shave him down to size.

[jolihokistix]

I'll have to take your word for it as I don't know such details for myself. All I know with certainty is the narrative has shifted again. Should I wonder if I'm being lied to?
No, life is too short. Lies are part of the scenery. Stay strong.

[Sfojimbo]

I'll have to take your word for it as I don't know such details for myself. All I know with certainty is the narrative has shifted again. Should I wonder if I'm being lied to?
If you aren't interested in it enough to look into it yourself why do you even care?

This story has been front page news for the last year, the information is out there.

[staycalm]

If you aren't interested in it enough to look into it yourself why do you even care?

This story has been front page news for the last year, the information is out there.

I didn't say I haven't looked into it. But when all my sources are 3rd/4th hand, I think it's reasonable to stay open minded and skeptical.

If you trust the "front page" then don't be concerned by a rando on an internet forum who doesn't. Let me know when we find those WMDs in Iraq. And we won the hearts and minds of Afghanistan with that multi-decade invasion right? And that's so terrorists won't come here again, right? Margarine is healthier than butter. Dewey Defeats Truman. Take 3 shots and wear 2 masks to avoid getting covid....or spreading it...or being hospitalized with it...or dying from it...or...hey just forget about that and look over here at the new bombshell front page news! Yeah, lots of great hits from The Front Page.

[Winemaker]

I didn't say I haven't looked into it. But when all my sources are 3rd/4th hand, I think it's reasonable to stay open minded and skeptical.

If you trust the "front page" then don't be concerned by a rando on an internet forum who doesn't. Let me know when we find those WMDs in Iraq. And we won the hearts and minds of Afghanistan with that multi-decade invasion right? And that's so terrorists won't come here again, right? Margarine is healthier than butter. Dewey Defeats Truman. Take 3 shots and wear 2 masks to avoid getting covid....or spreading it...or being hospitalized with it...or dying from it...or...hey just forget about that and look over here at the new bombshell front page news! Yeah, lots of great hits from The Front Page.
He who hesitates waits. If you push it hard enough it will fall over. What goes in must come out. It wasn't me!

[fdr]

So you don't see any signs of a "sour grapes" attitude regarding Bakhmut? It wasn't deemed strategically critical earlier, but poo poo'd as no big deal now that it's fallen? Very well. It's really none of my business. Just something I noticed.

?

Stay; it is the invader that elected to cynically throw meat bags into a grinder for reasons best known by the brilliant masterminds of Prigozin and Lord Farquard. Ukraine took an opportunity to oblige the invader by altering the invaders troop status from effectives to #200's and #300's, although Prigozin did his level best to turn #300's of his into #200's. It is hard to consider that 100,000 #200/300's to take a city of no other real strategic value other than a suitable place to have a disaster is a win for the red team. Ukraine also lost a lot of defenders, but they also held up the complete might of the invaders for a year, during which Ukraine has amassed a coalition of those that have a conscience and who are prepared to assist a country in its response to a criminal enterprise. The invader was always free to go home, for Ukraine, this is home, so why would they not have a right to defend their land from the invader, or to elect to preserve their forces once they had achieved their strategic objectives, which is to give time to amass the ability to remove the invaders logistics chain.

The invaders have no road forward to a win in any meaningful manner, they lost the war last year by any metric of success, we are looking at the exit strategy of a failed adventure. Not the first time. Ukraine is not an existential threat to the invader, it wasn't their adventure in 2014, that was the invaders doing. Now, the bully on the block, the guys who historically use treaties as sanitary pads, cry when they get pushed back by much of the rest of the world. Sad.

The threat to the federation is the cynicism of Moscow-St Petersburg, dreams of criminal hegemony, and the abuse of the member states of the federation. The 'Stans have had enough, they are aligning with China, more power to them, well done Vlad. Lord Farquard is left with the last dictator of Europe who is illegally in power at present, a dictator with a bad hair cut and a disregard for his own population, and then, the crazies that suppress their own population under the cover of religion, a despot of a failed state that the RF has conducted genocide as a supporting actor. The rest of the federation is looking at the diminished capability of the Kremlin and it's much feared army, which has met it's match by a country that was dismissed as more corrupt than Russia, by the people who have destroyed the Russian military through their very own corruption, with their nemesis being a comedian, who has outmatched the brilliance of the former mid level KGB officer that dreamt up and directly oversaw the greatest debacle in military history since Olaf the Hairy ordered his horned helmets with the horns pointing inwards.:}

[jolihokistix]

I didn't say I haven't looked into it. But when all my sources are 3rd/4th hand, I think it's reasonable to stay open minded and skeptical.


Why stay with such 3rd/4th hand sources, when you can watch and listen to Putin, Prigozhin, Russian commentators etc. directly? You can see their eyes, their mouths, their hand movements, their body language, and you can read the atmosphere around them. You can see the blood on Prigozhin's hands and the corpses around him, 100 a day, if you believe him. If you can bear it, you can even watch extreme right-wingers spouting illogical filth and racist hatred against the Ukrainians whom they profess to love. It's all there.

Stay skeptical, sure, but don't allow your skepticism to drain your own ability to judge right from wrong, or to dim the enthusiasm of those fighting to push back a cynical, blatant, merciless, medieval on-going land-grab.

[ORAC]

BREAKING:

The spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, says that Ukraine will receive several dozen F-16s.

He also confirmed that they will be transferred to Ukraine in squadrons (12+ planes) at a time and that no donor country will make any individual transfers.

[ORAC]

Major General Mick Ryan:
https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1660518156690161665?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

“Our nation’s new strategy for Ukraine has shifted from “support Ukraine” to “strategic bystanding”.”

On the new, morally bankrupt approach by the Australian government to almost entirely stop its assistance to #Ukraine. My latest in the @smh

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/we-ve-become-a-bystander-in-the-ukraine-war-and-china-will-notice-20230518-p5d9de.html

We’ve become a bystander in the Ukraine war, and China will notice

Imagine your house is on fire. The fire service arrives and commences a very professional job of extinguishing the flames, saving many of your possessions. But then, halfway through the job, the firemen and women turn off their hoses and then stand and watch your house, and your treasured possessions, burn to the ground. Such a scenario is difficult to conceive. But it is exactly what Australia has done with its support for Ukraine.…

[ORAC]

Target rich environment in a battle space covered by Pariot/NSAM/F-16…

The RuAF equivalent of Wagner - and unlikely to draw their pay for long.

Then again, as they run out of Mx for the Bears/Backfire bombers, what other options do they have expect to put their remaining medium bombers in harm’s way…


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/image_b4cb6caafe46dba286a6b39e6ecce18f104c0e97.jpeg

[jolihokistix]

There was a word for these one-way missions on high pay, (performance related), to protect the motherland newly-pilfered territories, ...was it suicide, no, kamicrazy... no, erm(?), giving up for now.

[Timmy Tomkins]

There was a word for these one-way missions on high pay, (performance related), to protect the motherland newly-pilfered territories, ...was it suicide, no, kamicrazy... no, erm(?), giving up for now.
Unscheduled disassembly perhaps?

[Less Hair]

Canon flutter.

[NutLoose]

"The winter-spring joint campaign of the RF Armed Forces and Wagner to exterminate our infantry on the Donetsk sector of the front ended successfully."Igor Girkin AKA "Strelkov" in reference to Bakhmut.

I would say its not just the physical quantity of Wagner troops that were killed or wounded, it goes deeper than that, I personally think Wagner have wasted their highly skilled and trained seasoned troops on taking Bakhmut which in the scheme of things probably puts them on a back foot for any further operations.

To be brutally honest, i feel the staffing they have now will mainly consist of prisoners and those mobilised, with a smattering of seasoned troops within, to be fair they may have got some better training compared the the Armies Mobiliks, but at the end of the day the quality may be very similar now and they are simply trading on their name.

The thing that got me was Russia kept pouring in troops to take a city of no strategic relevance just to show a victory at home even though from the offset Ukraine was laying out their reasoning to rack up Russian kills and casualties.

It almost became an obsession with the Russians and Wagner to take it, even to the point of seemingly ignoring the Ukrainians attempting to surround it..
If the Ukrainians are successful in that action then Russia will have some explaining to do to the public at home that the city they wasted so much manpower and equipment on is untennable.


..

[NutLoose]

The Netherlands has cancelled their final sale of 28 F-16 to Draken.. I can imagine the new future owners.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-netherlands-will-not-sell-f-16-to-a-private-company/

[Video Mixdown]

Target rich environment in a battle space covered by Pariot/NSAM/F-16…
The RuAF equivalent of Wagner - and unlikely to draw their pay for long. Then again, as they run out of Mx for the Bears/Backfire bombers, what other options do they have expect to put their remaining medium bombers in harm’s way…
Hard to believe that having suffered catastrophic and largely irreplaceable losses of professional soldiers and armour, they now plan to repeat the exercise with combat aircraft and crews that are even more irreplaceable. What was that about the definition of madness?

[NutLoose]

Nooo, what a waste :(

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660589614992703488?cxt=HHwWgIC-9ZzdzIsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660589614992703488?cxt=HHwWgIC-9ZzdzIsuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian's own Russian troops in incursion into Russia near Belgorod, they say they are liberation territory, not attacking.... This will mean Russia will now need to respond by sending troops and equipment to the region by drawing them away from other areas. Hopefully it's all part of the grand plan.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553?cxt=HHwWgoC97dyh0osuAAAA

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553?cxt=HHwWgoC97dyh0osuAAAA

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660601835449643011?cxt=HHwWhsCztcak0osuAAAA

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660599965205364741?cxt=HHwWioC8gdi30YsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660599965205364741?cxt=HHwWioC8gdi30YsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660601835449643011?cxt=HHwWhsCztcak0osuAAAA

They are reporting capturing a Russian City

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660602217597108226?cxt=HHwWhIDQ0eW60osuAAAA

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660602217597108226?cxt=HHwWhIDQ0eW60osuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Wagner announce the dates for their pull out from Bakhmut... it seems all pointless.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1660589106663964673

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1660589106663964673

[NutLoose]

More on the cross border incursion

The "Russian Volunteer Corps", whose soldiers claim to be fighting on Ukraine’s side, said that it was conducting combat missions on the territory of the Russia, and the "Legion Liberty" urged residents of the Russian border regions to stay at home and "not to resist"


Dmitri (https://twitter.com/wartranslated)
Really interesting messaging by the RDK, too - they're not "attacking" or "invading" anything, they are liberating occupied Russian territories from Kremlin. This puts a different spin to the story.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1660576576335933440

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1660576576335933440

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/22/7403263/

Location info

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1660601616481886208?cxt=HHwWgIC9_eaX0osuAAAA

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1660601616481886208?cxt=HHwWgIC9_eaX0osuAAAA

[NutLoose]

F-16 training apparently has already begun, it would not surprise me if it has been on going for a while.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1660570642251382784?cxt=HHwWgICw_e6MxIsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1660570642251382784?cxt=HHwWgICw_e6MxIsuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Aviation Content:

Bug season and that is low, below truck height.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660368361128173575?cxt=HHwWjoC9lceO6IouAAAA

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660368361128173575?cxt=HHwWjoC9lceO6IouAAAA

[NutLoose]

That's impressive.. A Russian Msta-S howitzer with a destroyed barrel


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/740x900/image_fe381a81abd6889495e2ba08b47c33fe24f96e87.png

[Spunky Monkey]

Nooo, what a waste :(



https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1660589614992703488?cxt=HHwWgIC-9ZzdzIsuAAAA


Hopefully before the Ukrainians left, they refilled the bottles with pish, anthrax and rat poison.
The Mobiks, Wagner and the mid level Russian elite won't be able to keep their filthy little hands off them.
Truck loads back to Moscow and boom, the country collapses.
Leaving the Ukrainians a clear run to the Kerch Bridge.

[FUMR]

Wagner announce the dates for their pull out from Bakhmut... it seems all pointless.



https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1660589106663964673

I'm not so sure that Wagner will have that many men to pull out by June! The place has been flattened and all that's left is Wagner. Perhaps the Ukrainians plan to flatten it (and Wagner) a little more. I believe that the next two weeks are going to be telling.

[Less Hair]

You can tell the domestic Russian audience they are all in "Africa", this is why they don't return or answer the phone.

[NutLoose]

It appears to be Russian troops operating as part of Ukraine's army that are in Russia attempting to liberate Russians from Russians...

I just wonder if it is part of the counter offensive planning, there will be nothing like a little insurgency inside Russia to spread through word of mouth to the main Russian public and to pray on their fear and worry, that will drive Russia's public to demand action, which will mean pulling troops from elsewhere such as the Donbas, thus diluting the forces opposing Ukraine.

[ORAC]

🤫🤫😙😙. :}

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1660631736823185411?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Meanwhile, a Russian Mi-24 was shot down near the village of New York….

[staycalm]

I disagree completely. Having followed this very closely in the media, I absolutely do NOT recall anything like that in any publication . Yes, there have been plenty of references to bitter battles and importance to Moscow, but not Ukraine.The main aim in recent months seems to have been to deny Putin any chance to crow about Russia's victory on any anniversary ( Feb 22nd, May 9th )

Please quote some of these references so I can see how poor my memory is versus your unbiased perspective.

A representative example from CNN:
https://twitter.com/wyattreed13/status/1660181521733484577
https://twitter(dot)com/wyattreed13/status/1660181521733484577

From Zelensky, as I already referenced above:
https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1660104198711570434
https://twitter(dot)com/WarClandestine/status/1660104198711570434

[NutLoose]

Ouch...

https://twitter.com/11Knuk123/status/1660607526121906177

https://twitter.com/11Knuk123/status/1660607526121906177

[NutLoose]

The calm in Belgorod.... Well not quite as the Mayor was saying, this is the road out of town

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1660638001205051402/video/3

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1660638001205051402/video/3

Advance detachments entered Grayvoron

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1660626039930798081?cxt=HHwWgoC27bel3YsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1660626039930798081?cxt=HHwWgoC27bel3YsuAAAA


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/680x478/image_f906e574a1438c785dea9323540f2046304c1ffd.png

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1660675186826305536?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1660675186826305536?s=20

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile Propogandist melt down... Nice to see them squirming.. posting bullsh*t of course, in fact exactly what they have inflicted on the poor Ukrainian people.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660606848649551872?cxt=HHwWgICz1a3I1IsuAAAA

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1660606848649551872?cxt=HHwWgICz1a3I1IsuAAAA

[Ninthace]

Referring to the strategic importance of Bakhmut, I heard a piece on the BBC R4 news where a military expert was asked about it. He said it, it was of comparatively minor value in itself and, if anything, it was of more value if you were going East than if you were going West on account of the lie of the land and the potential objectives.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1660675186826305536?s=20
I have seen a thread that this is fake, I will try to find it again.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660664585773363201?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


WOW! 🇷🇺 POLICE

Russians who invaded Russia, to liberate it from Putin, have taken a police station where THEY STOLE POLICE UNIFORMS AND SQUAD CARS.

🇷🇺 officials ask locals to, without warning, open fire on uniformed police.

🇷🇺 officials state that there are no longer police in Belgorod. Anyone dressed as a 🇷🇺 cop is really a Ukrainian saboteur and can be shot.

… I can’t imagine how this doesn’t turn into a complete disaster! 😂


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x1192/image_fba173b0e0050cdf3d06e5b0d9ba39ab7c8505bd.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

And now there arguing amongst themselves and passing blame.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660659906893021185?cxt=HHwWgoC8seDY7IsuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660659906893021185?cxt=HHwWgoC8seDY7IsuAAAA

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile in Moscow :ok:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1660700957703847968?cxt=HHwWwIC24Zyu_4suAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1660700957703847968?cxt=HHwWwIC24Zyu_4suAAAA

[NutLoose]

It seems a busy night

​​​​​​​ukraine front lines (https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr)
@euromaidanpr (https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr)

huge explosions reported in sevastopol, occupied crimea now




ukraine front lines (https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr)
@euromaidanpr (https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr)

explosions reported in energodar, zaporizhzhia oblast, the city nearby the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

[RatherBeFlying]

The SA government is desperately digging for a legal loophole that would allow them to avoid having to execute the ICC arrest warrant. Most likely Iran will allow his aircraft to transit their airspace to the Indian Ocean where he will be in international airspace the rest of the way to South Africa.

If his aircraft has a problem that requires a diversion, he might find himself on the way to The Hague.

Or some Iranian Buk operator might have an itchy trigger finger:E
​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

Something being downed in Russia.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1660745345691963392?cxt=HHwWgMDShfnFk4wuAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1660745345691963392?cxt=HHwWgMDShfnFk4wuAAAA