Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[NutLoose]

Gas pipe explosions in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1708125617445601360

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1708125617445601360

[Winemaker]

This says a lot about Russias ability to control any of the Black Sea, moving vessels by road.



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1708058513031717119
Yeah, but it might be more efficient to truck them than go by water. That's a fairly small vessel and not too difficult to move overland rather than take a long sea trip.

[ORAC]

More Russian troops fed into the grinder….. they fit the video is online suggests the 10 are all dead….

Another 300K being called up (supposedly not to be sent to Ukraine 😏) but, as noted, Russia doesn’t have the tanks, IFVs, artillery, body armour, uniforms, guns or ammunition to equip or support them….

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1708070951714197664?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[jolihokistix]

Needing a little context.

Ivano-Frankivsk is in free Ukraine, in the west, so is this Russian gas that it being piped to... Transnistria, Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Europe?
And was the pipeline hit deliberately or by mstake by Russia, or Ukraine?

Update. This is an oil pipeline. (Not gas.)
Al Jazeera. 15:40 GMT.
Quote: “At 5 pm (1400 GMT), near the village of Strymba, Nadvirna district, an oil pipeline (150 millimetres in diameter) ruptured,” Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said.

It said that the rupture led to an oil spill spanning an area of 100 square metres (1,076sq feet). The cause of the fire was not immediately clear, but local media outlets said there had been a powerful explosion.“

[ORAC]

Includes video.

https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1707993997749182634?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Rescue mission behind enemy lines

Two Ukrainian paratroopers hid for a year and a half in Russian controlled territory

Every life is important: the Navy and the GUR conducted a successful special operation and returned home two Ukrainian paratroopers

A few weeks ago, the Navy Intelligence Department received information from operational sources that two servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been in the temporarily occupied territory since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, where they participated in battles with the occupiers, were seriously injured, and were unable to independently re-enter the territory controlled by Ukraine.

During all this time, they were successfully hidden by local residents.

An evacuation plan was prepared, the implementation of which involved the Command of the Armed Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whose units provided fire cover during the exit of the group.

Thanks to the joint efforts of two servicemen who had been in the occupied territory for more than a year and a half, it was possible to bring them to the territory controlled by Ukraine the other day.

[NutLoose]

Ermmmmm, does this not risk escalation and plays to the Russian narrative, having UK troops on the ground in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708221414640099813

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708221414640099813

[Video Mixdown]

Ermmmmm, does this not risk escalation and plays to the Russian narrative, having UK troops on the ground in Ukraine.
​​​​​
It rubbishes the Russian narrative that they have some sort of veto over who can and cannot be in Ukraine.

[Winemaker]

It rubbishes the Russian narrative that they have some sort of veto over who can and cannot be in Ukraine.
Well, the Russkie TV guys and gals are urging that London be A-bombed and that the Russkies not stop until Berlin is taken. Who can blame the British for responding?

[NutLoose]

So if the U.K. has troops on the ground, all be it as trainers, I take it this will be not as part of NATO, does this not legitimise Russian claims that they are now at war with the U.K.?

Pali :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66972984

[NutLoose]

All is not well in the Russian police forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66924404

[BANANASBANANAS]

So if the U.K. has troops on the ground, all be it as trainers, I take it this will be not as part of NATO, does this not legitimise Russian claims that they are now at war with the U.K.?

Pali :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66972984

It would certainly blur the lines a bit but not really any different, for example, to the 'British Army Training Team' that was in Mirbat in the early 1970s.

[Torquetalk]

Ermmmmm, does this not risk escalation and plays to the Russian narrative, having UK troops on the ground in Ukraine.



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708221414640099813

The Telegraph article doesn’t say that British troops will be deployed, just talk of training support presence in the West of the country (nothing new - was part of robusting Ukraine pre-war); encouraging defence manufacturing presence (really overseas trade diplomacy to achieve a post-war foot in the door for BAE) and naval support for grain vessels in international waters - yeah right 🙄.

So a bit of Schapps blah blah dialed up into something the Russians can use as propaganda. Shapps should reel his neck in. This won’t help unify Ukranian support.

[DogTailRed2]

So if the U.K. has troops on the ground, all be it as trainers, I take it this will be not as part of NATO, does this not legitimise Russian claims that they are now at war with the U.K.?

Pali :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66972984

I love this idea that UK is in danger of escalation. Isn't threatening to use nuclear weapons on UK and NATO countries not just an escalation but an actual act of terrorism?
All NATO countries should be doing the same in solidarity.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1708445954997637567?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Three ships with agricultural product and Iron ore have left Ukrainian ports. Five are on their way to Ukraine for loading.

The Russian naval blockade is no longer working.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1708406518251508154?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Reportedly, Russians have started drawing Tu-95 on their airfields.

Should someone tell them they forgot about shadows?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_cd1db5bdc7d71f09eca3013177b92ed81535cb14.png
​​​​​​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

Reportedly, Russians have started drawing Tu-95 on their airfields.

Should someone tell them they forgot about shadows?


I have no idea how intelligent visual recognition navigation/targetting devices are, but doubt that they can recognise shadows, so this is undoubtedly a somewhat effective tactic for very little cost. It's best - I believe - to report without bias.


Quote:

It said that the rupture led to an oil spill spanning an area of 100 square metres (1,076sq feet). The cause of the fire was not immediately clear, but local media outlets said there had been a powerful explosion.“

I think the chances that someone went out and measured 100 m2 are zero so it is obviously a guesstimate. It is therefore completely wrong to use Google to give an exact translation down to a single ft2 - 1 076 ft2: - since it was just a guess, 1100 ft2 would have been appropriate if you felt it necessary.. This is a common journalistic error that really irritates me excessively.

[Chu Chu]

Obviously they're waiting to paint the shadows until they know what time the attack's coming. :bored:

[Winemaker]

Obviously they're waiting to paint the shadows until they know what time the attack's coming. :bored:
They also forgot the tires.....

[Herod]

Three ships with agricultural product and Iron ore have left Ukrainian ports. Five are on their way to Ukraine for loading.

The Russian naval blockade is no longer working.

Did it ever work?

[jeallen01]

They also forgot the tires.....
And is White the new "must have" camouflage?

[T28B]

After giving it some thought, I have moved the breaking news about elections in Slovakia into the "Unpleasantries" thread in Jet Blast.

This political development is related to the war in Ukraine at the political level, certainly, but it is also related to much else political.

[GeeRam]

I have no idea how intelligent visual recognition navigation/targetting devices are, but doubt that they can recognise shadows, so this is undoubtedly a somewhat effective tactic for very little cost. It's best - I believe - to report without bias.


I would think they are all 3D object based systems, so unlikely to be confused by a 2D flat image painted on the ground.

If its a giant inflatable Bear on the other hand, or made of wood, that would be a different matter.

[Thud_and_Blunder]

Maybe they're just parking aids - to reduce the number of collisions with light stanchions...

[ORAC]

Did it ever work?
In that it stopped the owners getting insurance and hence cancelling voyages - yes.

[ORAC]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-fighter-jets-deploy-to-poland/

British fighter jets deploy to Poland

Four RAF Typhoon jets have been deployed to Poland, to conduct exercises with aircraft from Spain, Poland, and Italy….

The Typhoons, which deployed to Poland today, will remain in Poland for two weeks….

The Ministry of Defence said:

“The activity comes ahead of UK Ministers attending the Warsaw Security Forum this week. Defence Minister James Heappey and FCDO ministers Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Lord Ahmad will all use the forum to stress the need to maintain support for Ukraine and keep up the pressure on Russia.

Earlier this year, the UK and Polish foreign secretaries and defence ministers signed a strategic partnership on foreign policy, security and defence (https://gbr01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gov.uk%2Fgovernment%2Fnews%2Fuk-and-poland-strengthen-foreign-policy-security-and-defence-cooperation&data=05%7C01%7COliver.Tillard101%40mod.gov.uk%7C1ac08c7bffb2 460ca5e808dbc1155e39%7Cbe7760ed5953484bae95d0a16dfa09e5%7C0% 7C0%7C638316069739417799%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4 wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C30 00%7C%7C%7C&sdata=S1kNJcx9CGsTQo7g3QcMsRHz3dUpyWGKvyWCGMev1zM%3D&reserved=0) – emphasising both countries’ commitment to European security and collective defence through NATO.

On Wednesday, James Heappey will visit RAF personnel deployed with the Typhoons, as well as troops deployed in eastern Poland who operate the Sky Sabre surface-to-air missile system, bolstering Poland’s air defences close to the border with Ukraine.”

[Uberteknik]

I have no idea how intelligent visual recognition navigation/targetting devices are, but doubt that they can recognise shadows, so this is undoubtedly a somewhat effective tactic for very little cost. It's best - I believe - to report without bias.



I think the chances that someone went out and measured 100 m2 are zero so it is obviously a guesstimate. It is therefore completely wrong to use Google to give an exact translation down to a single ft2 - 1 076 ft2: - since it was just a guess, 1100 ft2 would have been appropriate if you felt it necessary.. This is a common journalistic error that really irritates me excessively.

I would think they are all 3D object based systems, so unlikely to be confused by a 2D flat image painted on the ground.

If its a giant inflatable Bear on the other hand, or made of wood, that would be a different matter.

Land attack cruise missiles and smart munitions like Storm Shadow, HiMars etc are all guided in their terminal phase first by GPS with a circular error probability of a few metres to get to the intended target and then switch to thermal imaging and/or radar based seekers. The former are 3D imaging and will not confuse real targets with flat painted surfaces. The second obtains radar returns from reflections and here, clearly, the painted ground will offer no returns other than ground clutter. Dual mode seekers are even harder to thwart as they fuse data from both seeker sources to eliminate decoys. I would say these painted targets are there to confuse optical spectrum recon drone imaging from high altitude to give a false indication of force scale.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1708259769838919717?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Romania’s Defense Ministry reveals that Russia is waging electronic warfare against Romania.

Daniel Petrescu, the Army Chief of Staff of Romania, says Russia is “actively & constantly” jamming GPS communications of ships in Romanian waters, increasing the risk of collisions.

[ORAC]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/1/7422161/

Ukraine successfully attacks Russian helicopter parking in Sochi

Ukrainian drones have attacked the Russian city of Sochi in Krasnodar Krai, striking a helicopter parking lot.

Russian media report that the Smolensk aircraft plant, which is a part of the Russian Tactical Missile Armament state corporation, was the target.


https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1708375771465605224?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​

[Ninthace]

Romania’s Defense Ministry reveals that Russia is waging electronic warfare against Romania.

Daniel Petrescu, the Army Chief of Staff of Romania, says Russia is “actively & constantly” jamming GPS communications of ships in Romanian waters, increasing the risk of collisions.

Don’t they keep à lookout from the bridges of ships in Romania? I did OOW in the days before gps and by and large we tended to miss others ships as well as the bottom of the sea and the bits of ground that stuck up above the water. Heck, we even normally fetched up at the right port.

[GlobalNav]

Ermmmmm, does this not risk escalation and plays to the Russian narrative, having UK troops on the ground in Ukraine.



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708221414640099813

Perhaps, but what would Putin’s next play be? Just more of the same? He will do that anyway.

[PPRuNeUser0211]

Don’t they keep à lookout from the bridges of ships in Romania? I did OOW in the days before gps and by and large we tended to miss others ships as well as the bottom of the sea and the bits of ground that stuck up above the water. Heck, we even normally fetched up at the right port.
I think it's fair to say AIS reduces the risk of collision especially in poor weather. No GPS = no AIS = increased risk of collision

[Ninthace]

Fair enough. We had no AIS. In poor weather, we reduced speed, posted extra lookouts and kept a close eye on the radar. Our anti collision system was a chinagraph pencil drawing dots on the blip on the screen. If the dots were creeping towards the centre of the screen, we did something about it.

[NutLoose]

Even amongst potential enemies, respect for those that have fallen surpasses all.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708545596229931302

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708545596229931302

[NutLoose]

More fires in Russia.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708544991587336296

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708544991587336296

[NutLoose]

More on the attacks at the Smolensk aircraft plant.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708464290015990075

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708464290015990075

Confirmation Russia shot down all the drones :}
It looks like a controlled glide into the target.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708410560386105679

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708410560386105679

however.

​​​​​​​This is the "Kolevka" part of town in Smolensk. The drone fell behind house #2, there is a small forest there and people part cars behind the house. The airport and the aviation plant is still hundreds of meters to the North from there, so no militarily relevant object was hit.

​​​​​​​ But it shows that the drone was not shot down and instead just hit somewhere else - possibly due to jamming.

​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_Oracle/status/1708465316177600903

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukraine_Oracle/status/1708465316177600903

[NutLoose]

https://youtu.be/5eAs_MNgdDw?si=uQdR62m_fl4eqyeP

[ORAC]

Great customer support….. 😇😇

https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1708616167617658922?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


"So when a Ukrainian tanker with the callsign “Kochevnik” ran into problems with his captured Russian T-72B3—problems local expertise couldn’t immediately solve—he called Uralvagonzavod tech support. And incredibly, the help line actually helped."

https://t.co/OC4wZE6GnJ

A Ukrainian Officer’s Captured Russian Tank Wasn’t Working. So He Called Tech Support—In Russia.

[NutLoose]

Well this is a turn up for the books, I wonder how Hungary is feeling about now.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708777250890367038

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708777250890367038

[NutLoose]

Ukraine say they hit the Smolensk missile plant and caused significant damage.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708764643374629116

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708764643374629116

[NutLoose]

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/f7arwlxxoaar304_67e244ed01111103958e29ff9083587b0d3881aa.jpg

[NutLoose]

More on Kharkiv the early days

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708135330681958874

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708135330681958874

https://twitter.com/TONYK619/status/1707390854594453806

https://twitter.com/TONYK619/status/1707390854594453806

True to form!!

russians believed that Kharkiv was waiting for "liberators", so the city would not oppose. However, two weeks before the invasion, doubts arose among the russian military and political leaders, said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. Two weeks before the invasion, he said, there was an interesting meeting. The meeting also raised questions about where the money allocated for the war against Ukraine had gone. Budanov added that huge funds for the preparation of the war were simply looted by the russians.

[NutLoose]

More on the bridge

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1707808001300525296

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1707808001300525296

and another one?

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708273802658853297

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708273802658853297

[NutLoose]

Another Russian pilot defects.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708806478969061589

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708806478969061589

[NutLoose]

Hmmm, well the video is out so they must all be dead.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708417055555232060

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708417055555232060

[NutLoose]

Volunteers please step forward!!!!!!! :eek:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708075607567843425

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1708075607567843425

[ORAC]

Oooops….

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1708801052756082758?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Moscow authorities published the addresses of secret facilities of Russian security agencies

Investigators from the "Dossier" center found on the website of the Moscow City Hall a document with the title "List of consumers of electric power (capacity), the restriction of the regime of electric power consumption of which may lead to economic, environmental and social consequences". It is there that the addresses of restricted facilities are listed.

The list of special Moscow electricity consumers approved by Sergei Sobyanin includes addresses where employees of secret agencies are registered. Among them is building 91 on Profsoyuznaya Street. The document also lists specific apartments, presumably belonging to intelligence officers.

The largest concentration of secret facilities is located in the Serebryany Bor, a specially protected natural area in the area of Moscow. There are military unit facilities belonging to the Foreign Intelligence Service, as well as plots intended for "defense and security" and "operation of a service dacha."

The building in Stoleshnikov Pereulok, where the famous Jean-Jacques café is located, turned out to be somehow connected with the Federal Protective Service. In the border region of Bryansk, officials even noted a temporary mobile FSB station. And in St. Petersburg, the law enforcement agencies have several dachas in the most elite neighborhoods of the city.

Such information is a state secret, and for the disclosure of addresses under Article 283 of the Criminal Code threatens up to seven years in prison.

The file was placed in the section "Special Group" on the site of the mayor's office, now it is no longer available.

The investigators also found similar files on the websites of the administrations of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region, the frontline Belgorod and Bryansk regions, Primorsky Krai, Kamchatka, Chechnya and North Ossetia.

Also, the lists include addresses belonging to the Ministry of Defense and captions to them: "ammunition depot", "refueling point" and "storage facility". According to the investigators, the addresses of these facilities may already be known to the Ukrainian security services and could be used as potential targets for strikes.

Therefore, the journalists created a map in which they indicated all possible potential targets for strikes, so that ordinary residents could understand the risks of living near such places.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1138x1238/image_cd76e7a7def4d5398d3739b0b76306c61a8b8a66.png

[Lonewolf_50]

Oooops….
... Such information is a state secret, and for the disclosure of addresses under Article 283 of the Criminal Code threatens up to seven years in prison...
May I suggest that you defer your travel plans to Russia? :uhoh:
Having presented that state secret here, the immigration team at the airport might want to change your accommodations to a prison cell for an extended vacation. :p
Tongue squarely in cheek



[ORAC]

Bulgaria introduces ban on entry of cars with Russian license plates. The restrictions will apply to both cars and trucks.

Croatia and France have also joined the ban on cars with Russian license plates.

In addition, Czechia has become the second country after Germany to implement the confiscation of cars with Russian license plates.

[NutLoose]

Damn Pali :(

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708880381280244109

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708880381280244109​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

Two Ukrainian SU24’s managed to penetrate 50km into Russia, bomb an oil facility, then return home without being bothered last year the Russians have announced.. wasn’t that actually the two helicopters?

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1708810319403827442

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1708810319403827442

[NutLoose]

You should read this, the grand plan, nukes and all, the depopulation of Ukraine as a nation and basically destroying everything.

Full article

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703502731959250945.html.

Ukrainian POWs should be subjected to forced labor for the large infrastructure projects (building roads and railways).
In addition, in a first step 1-2 million Ukrainians should be deported to the new settlements in Siberia.

After Ukraine’s occupation, all of its infrastructure should be destroyed: - road and rail networks - energy production - industry - large settlements. At the end of this transformation, Ukraine should be a depopulated agrarian backyard.

To end the war in Ukraine, the report suggests more credible threats of preemptive nuclear strikes on Western countries that continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.
[This may explain some "uncertainties" in the German Chancellor's Office].
12/20
Karaganov had recommended in an earlier paper that preemptive nuclear strikes on Poland, for example, be carried out immediately to give the RU nuclear threats more "credibility".

He assessed the likelihood of a NATO response as low.


Surely allowing the threat to go unaddressed and telling Russia bluntly that they will launch a retaliatory strike on Moscow or the like is the only way to take that off the table. Russia without Moscow and St Petersburg would crumble.
After all that is how MAD has kept the world “safe” up until now.

As for 30 Abrams, they should be sending 300 and pouring all the missiles the Ukrainians are asking for into the country. Drip feeding the war is costing lives and is playing into Russias hands, the destruction of cities and villages all make sense now.



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x983/image_4d57b5b6ddb38b2945c73a924034ca99a5a128f6.jpeg

[Winemaker]

Karaganov had recommended in an earlier paper that preemptive nuclear strikes on Poland, for example, be carried out immediately to give the RU nuclear threats more "credibility". He assessed the likelihood of a NATO response as low.

What are these people drinking? If Russia attacked a western country with nukes, what do they think would happen? We'd just sit there and take it? Insane. I suspect the U.S. and their allies have told the Russians, in no uncertain terms, that the use of nuclear weapons will be immediately met with a like response. These people are on another planet.

Answer to the original question: vodka.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/kromark/status/1708823243316969927?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The route of a new highway, intended to connect Rostov-on-Don with occupied Mariupol, is visible in the @planet satellite image captured on Oct. 1st. These images confirm previous reports that the road will be 4-lane and bypass big cities and villages. h/t @auditor_ya.

[henra]

What are these people drinking? If Russia attacked a western country with nukes, what do they think would happen? We'd just sit there and take it? Insane. I suspect the U.S. and their allies have told the Russians, in no uncertain terms, that the use of nuclear weapons will be immediately met with a like response. These people are on another planet.

I think you have to distinguish between those really making the decisions and the 'back- benchers'. These calls for nuclear strikes always come from the back- benchers. It's probably a mixture of copium, desperation and possibly delusion. Those in power surely are very aware of the consequences. They have miscalculated the reaction of the West initially for sure but I'm equally sure they have adjusted their expectation by now. Even if the initial reaction by the West might not be immediately Nuclear Wepaons on Moscow they will realise that their whole conventional Military would be quickly wiped out to a point where they would need to resort to more Nukes finally ending up in the unavoidable endgame in this scenario.
They happily use these fools to cause fear and uncertainty in the West, but they won't listen to them. And they are aware that the for them 'important' part of Russia consists of only two targets cities. Hell they have avoided drafting people from there. You think they are ready to have it turned into wasteland?

[Pali]

Damn Pali :(



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708880381280244109​​​​​​​

It is even worse. One of the first things Fico said after elections, that he is "pro peace" in this conflict which means Slovakia will not send any weaponry to Ukraine. Not just that, he wants to deny production and export of ammunition to Ukraine (if I remember well, Slovak company manufactures around 10% of all 155mm shells spent in Ukraine).

[ORAC]

The Security Service of Ukraine detained Oleksandr Lysenko, the mayor of Sumy, for taking bribe this evening.

The director of the city's infrastructure department was also detained with him.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/815x683/image_64b7568f990b3dc7057655a4ed240d6c910cb781.png

[Wokkafans]

Unsurprising when the cupboard was bare to start with. Reality bites hard.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1709152580251611405?s=20


https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1709152580251611405?s=20

[FUMR]

Unsurprising when the cupboard was bare to start with. Reality bites hard.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1709152580251611405?s=20

Sssh, don't tell the Russians! :rolleyes:

[NutLoose]

Australia to send Slinger, a drone killing system.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709123831200129372

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709123831200129372

[NutLoose]

More Russian fires, this time it's a warehouse of uniforms.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708918968692375816

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708918968692375816

[NutLoose]

The film shown of her collecting a uniform was from about a year ago and it was in regards of these people tailoring uniforms for Ukrainian female troops that were pregnant, there was absolutely nothing about these troops being sent to the front, simply uniforms being produced so they fitted and were comfortably while they went through their pregnancy, Russia obviously has decided to tweak the narrative to make it sound like Ukraine is putting pregnant women on the front line.

https://twitter.com/GabeZZOZZ/status/1706664888809201812

https://twitter.com/GabeZZOZZ/status/1706664888809201812

[NutLoose]

Errrrr, and then there is this clown

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1708780698591539339

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1708780698591539339

Territorial integrity would have been restored through the granting of special status to #Donbass (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Donbass?src=hashtag_click) – the Donetsk & the Lugansk People’s Republics

Where in the Minsk agreement did it say they could invade Ukraine, form a couple of enclaves as separate territories and that makes it all fine?

..

[NutLoose]

Ist Ukrainian landing in Crimea :}

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1708832663895732339

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1708832663895732339

[Ninthace]

Ist Ukrainian landing in Crimea :}



https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1708832663895732339
Boaring!

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1708774029224509953

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1708774029224509953

[NutLoose]

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/600x525/f7hn6xgxqaaknul_d99ffb449e5014d4b1cc9659ce1da3e33af9c299.jpg

[DogTailRed2]

Unsurprising when the cupboard was bare to start with. Reality bites hard.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1709152580251611405?s=20
I've mentioned the problem of re-supply and what happens when we run out several times but always had the response "We have plenty".
Doesn't take a scientist to work out if you are not starting production you will run out.
One wonders how the rest of NATO is faring.

[Ninthace]

Doesn't need an Engineer either. Even a Duvet Technician can work that out, but it is probably beyond the wit of politicians and the Treasury.

[DogTailRed2]

Doesn't need an Engineer either. Even a Duvet Technician can work that out, but it is probably beyond the wit of politicians and the Treasury.
Indeed. How fortunate we are that the enemy appears to be even more incompetent.

[NutLoose]

​​​​​​​The route of a new highway, intended to connect Rostov-on-Don with occupied Mariupol, is visible in the @planet satellite image captured on Oct. 1st. These images confirm previous reports that the road will be 4-lane and bypass big cities and villages. h/t @auditor_ya.

They are fairly cracking on with the job, I wonder if they can lay a rail track between two cities?

[NutLoose]

Doesn't need an Engineer either. Even a Duvet Technician can work that out, but it is probably beyond the wit of politicians and the Treasury.

Or it is a subtle political plan to reduce the size of the armed forces, no mobile artillery, lay off a squadron or two. No ammo, then reduce usage, store those tanks and lay off some tankies. ;)

[MPN11]

I always remember the issue with Belgian NATO war stocks when we asked for 1000lb dumb bombs in GW1.

Too much Peace is bad for Defence.

[Wokkafans]

Australia to send Slinger, a drone killing system.



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709123831200129372


Do the missiles come back after use :E​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

Back to the war on the ground
Army veteran killed in Ukraine ‘died a hero’ - Task & Purpose (taskandpurpose.com) (https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-veteran-ukraine-killed-2/)
US Army veteran, over there in the fight with Ukrainian army.
Nickname: Gimli.
US. Army veteran Dalton Medlin died on Sept. 27 of wounds he sustained while fighting in Ukraine, according to Ryan O’Leary, a fellow U.S. Army veteran who leads foreigners in Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade.
​​​​​​​Vaya con Dios, amigo.

[MPN11]

I wish Russian people understood it. Before this war began, I didn't even think they were so stupid to believe everything they said on tv.
That, tragically, is the Russia Putin has created … he knows his Communist history.

[NutLoose]

Act of God or crew sabotage , when questioned the crew all told a different version.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709225670545489948

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709225670545489948x


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709225687037460967

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709225687037460967

[NutLoose]

All three key Ukrainian ports are open again and insurance companies are responding by restoring coverage.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709219301515764186

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709219301515764186

[GeeRam]

I've mentioned the problem of re-supply and what happens when we run out several times but always had the response "We have plenty".
Doesn't take a scientist to work out if you are not starting production you will run out.
One wonders how the rest of NATO is faring.

Not very well it would seem according to Adm Rob Bauer..... in this BBC article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66984944

[ORAC]

https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1709183503869325716?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


French company Turgis Gaillard and Antonov to launch production of Aarok UAV in Ukraine

This drone with a wingspan of 22 meters can carry up to 1500 kg of weapons and surpasses the capabilities of the US MQ-9 Reaper.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x806/image_5727bfff66124d7bbf1d5ccf8a2e463804db37e1.png
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

Russia is eating through their tank stockpiles.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709203747451130254

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709203747451130254

[NutLoose]

One of Russias larger intelligence networks shut down, 13 informants were detained.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709126724145820055

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1709126724145820055

[NutLoose]

Fascinating chart showing the usage of artillery shells and Russias ever decreasing ability to sustain their fire rates over Ukraines increases.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1573x1005/image_fad6019d5ac684202ee04b196049cdd6b9ec8767.jpeg

[Xeptu]

What are these people drinking? If Russia attacked a western country with nukes, what do they think would happen? We'd just sit there and take it? Insane. I suspect the U.S. and their allies have told the Russians, in no uncertain terms, that the use of nuclear weapons will be immediately met with a like response. These people are on another planet.

It's easy to believe what your nation tells you on TV about how good we are. I experienced it myself. My first reality check was in 1997 flying into Johannesburg Airport and thinking OMG and this is Africa. It made our biggest capital airport look like a small regional. For most Russians that have never stepped out of the country it's easy to understand that they think it's the same everywhere. To them Moscow and St. Petersburg would be the most developed cities in the world.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1709463466874982723?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Exodus of Russian ships from Sevastopol

The Russian Black Sea Fleet has moved its ships from Sevastopol….

All three operational submarines of Project 06363 (Kilo-class), both frigates of Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich-class) & one patrol ship have moved to Novorossiysk.

A Project 1135M (Krivak-class frigate), five large landing ships, and, apparently, the bulk of their small missile ships are also now in Novorossiysk.

Another part of the ships - one large landing ship, two small missile ships and both new minesweepers of Project 12700 (Alexandrit-class) - have been moved from Sevastopol to Feodosia.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x340/image_8ce622bd35aeb95fbda0b5f658f7fb19e73c9bec.png

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x338/image_087e555de876bbc22a02e81ec85d9e6a5c61f3ea.png

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x339/image_8c053620abca0302559d8a0dbd90491a154a93e7.png

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x338/image_3d1cf1761eb3df6f383d2110eab69875c052e93a.png

[The Helpful Stacker]

Doesn't need an Engineer either. Even a Duvet Technician can work that out, but it is probably beyond the wit of politicians and the Treasury.

In fairness, a "Duvet Technician" is probably better equipped to work it out than an Engineer. They spend all day counting with their fingers, rather than smacking them with hammers, then running to the squipper when they hit the limit of their abilities.

[NutLoose]

Ukraine has issued some film of their jetski operations into Crimea.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709527140427850137

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709527140427850137

[NutLoose]

Various shots showing Ukraines sniper invisibility cloaks.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709494477197328539

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709494477197328539

[NutLoose]

Not a lot of movement at the front.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709293636293197844

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709293636293197844

more

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1709446655181721642

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1709446655181721642

..

[NutLoose]

Zelensky is back at the front again. What a guy!

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709220178259521915

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709220178259521915

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709179472845414658

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709179472845414658

[DuncanDoenitz]

French company Turgis Gaillard and Antonov to launch production of Aarok UAV in Ukraine

This drone with a wingspan of 22 meters can carry up to 1500 kg of weapons and surpasses the capabilities of the US MQ-9 Reaper.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x806/image_5727bfff66124d7bbf1d5ccf8a2e463804db37e1.png

Landing gear looks to be borrowed from the B200; gives further indication of its size and AUM.

[NutLoose]

Well, the Russians seem to have a clear understanding of Shapps and British MP's.

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1709329366063141362

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1709329366063141362

[NutLoose]

Another S-400, this time in Belogrod bites the dust. I bet Turkey wants their money back after seeing how dismal it can be.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709514745718399463

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709514745718399463

[NutLoose]

Impressive.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709492415302697304

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709492415302697304

[NutLoose]

Another explosion followed by a fire in Russia, this time it is an Alumninium plant that is on fire, that has got to be a strategic target.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1709450540101361784

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1709450540101361784

[NutLoose]

Another dreaming bull****ter... I claim Moscow and St Petersburg as my own, they originally belonged to my great, great, great, auntie Maude, can the population please acknowledge my ownership.. after all, It is basically what he is doing.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709490089804333503

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709490089804333503

[ORAC]

https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1709304296347496457?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


More details have emerged of a recent sabotage attack at Chkalovsky Air Base in the Moscow region. Although some attributed it to Ukraine, a Russian aircraft technician is said to have carried it out in protest against the war, using improvised explosive devices.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1709304296347496457.html
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1709516170200572406?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Reportedly, in a drone attack on Belgorod region of Russia, an S-400 Russian Triumf air defense system was destroyed. It costs about $1.2 billion.

Russian Telegram channels reported that about 20 explosions were heard in the area where the system was located. There was a power outage in settlements nearby.

This is the second Russian Triumf complex destroyed in the past month. The first one was hit in Yevpatoria on September 14.

Russians might need to think of a new name for this complex (Triumf means Triumph) from now on.

[mike1964]

Reportedly, in a drone attack on Belgorod region of Russia, an S-400 Russian Triumf air defense system was destroyed. It costs about $1.2 billion.

Russian Telegram channels reported that about 20 explosions were heard in the area where the system was located. There was a power outage in settlements nearby.

This is the second Russian Triumf complex destroyed in the past month. The first one was hit in Yevpatoria on September 14.

Russians might need to think of a new name for this complex (Triumf means Triumph) from now on.
​​​​​​​$1.2 billion? Really??

[meleagertoo]

$1.2 billion? Really??
Sadly this whole affair is overrun by propaganda and the 'goodies' are just as bad as the 'baddies" in spouting this sort of ridiculous, unrealistic and grossly overstated garbage.

It's a pity we can't maintain a level of reality here without descending to such silly and obvious levels of pure fantasy.

[NutLoose]

A rather good interview regarding tanks in use in Ukraine including western armour.

https://youtu.be/Mrwra_tlD_E?si=awINkvEHhB4QFcxA

[NutLoose]

$1.2 billion? Really??

I think where the confusion is coming from is they have destroyed 2 systems one mentioned and one in Crimea, the complete systems are $600 million, so $1.2 for both.

it’s not just the launchers but all the other junk, radars etc.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/what-an-s-400-kill-and-a-spec-ops-raid-reveal-about-ukraines-ability-to-hit-russia/

Still the Russians do get a lot of bang for their bucks, judging from the explosions when they are taken out. :}

[NutLoose]

New delivery of Gepards to Ukraine, supposed ex Qatar, God knows where they found the paint.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1708857956194746544

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1708857956194746544​​​​​​​


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/738x706/image_8cc948f9ee259b670cb551797b9b160e2c487a2b.jpeg

[Lookleft]

Humbrol 30 I think.

[NutLoose]

The dropping of mines with shock sensors.

Beware graphic images of wounded soldiers legs, just a quoted link only, choice is at your discretion, just a fair bit of blood.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1707655655643824135

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/04/uk-says-russia-plotting-to-sabotage-ukrainian-grain-tankers-with-sea-mines

UK says Russia plotting to sabotage Ukrainian grain tankers with sea mines

Britain has accused Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) of plotting to sabotage civilian tankers loaded with Ukrainian grain by planting sea mines on the approaches to the country’s Black Sea ports.

Based on what it said was declassified intelligence, the UK said Russia did not want to directly attack merchant ships using Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine)’s newly created humanitarian corridor with missiles, but instead try to destroy them covertly.

Russia would then seek to blame Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) for the loss of any shipping in an attempt to evade responsibility, the British Foreign Office continued, and the UK said it was going public in order to deter Moscow from carrying out the plan.

James Cleverly, the UK foreign secretary, accused Russia of the “pernicious targeting” of civilian shipping: “The world is watching – and we see right through Russia’s cynical attempts to lay blame on Ukraine for their attacks.”

[jolihokistix]

The Kremlin says naval base plans under the defence ministryFollowing reports that Russia signed a deal for a permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, the Kremlin said such issues were under the defence ministry and made no further comment.

Earlier on Thursday, the Izvestiya newspaper quoted the leader of the breakaway region, Aslan Bzhania, as saying, “We have signed an agreement, and in the near future, there will be a permanent base of the Russian Navy in the Ochamchira district”.

“This is all aimed at increasing the level of defence capability of both Russia and Abkhazia, and this kind of interaction will continue,” he said.

Russia-Ukraine war live: ‘Agreement signed’ for naval base in Abkhazia | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/5/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-says-24-drones-launched-by-moscow-downed)
9:10 GMT Al Jazeera

Being pushed down the coast from Sochi?
Map
Soviet Caucasus map - Abkhazia - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia#/media/File:Soviet_Caucasus_map.svg)

[NutLoose]

That in a word tells you they have more or less given up on Sevastopol as a safe harbour and their future in Crimea, it does make you wonder if they truly believe they can hold it.
It also will allow them to be closer to the straits to control Ukrainian shipping in and out of the Black sea?

[GeeRam]

That in a word tells you they have more or less given up on Sevastopol as a safe harbour and their future in Crimea, it does make you wonder if they truly believe they can hold it.
It also will allow them to be closer to the straits to control Ukrainian shipping in and out of the Black sea?

Closer?
That base will be about as far away from the straits as its possible to get in the Black Sea. Its over a 1000km from the straits, and over 200km further away than Novorossiysk is.

[Thrust Augmentation]

BG's assesment of the knocked out Challenger 2 seems pretty optimistic, even Kool-Aid-ish.

[NutLoose]

Where the 1.4 billion dollar price for the S-400 Triumph system comes from

Ukrainian Security Service drones struck the Russian Triumph near Belgorod last night. The cost of such an air defense system amounts to 1.2 billion dollars, reports sources in the SSU.

According to our sources, SSU drones attacked the strategic S-400 Triumph air defense system last night near the Russian Belgorod. The cost of such a system is 1.2 billion dollars.


https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ssu-targets-1-2-billion-triumph-air-defense-1696414458.html

And when you look at the size of the system below it could be conceivable, 8 launchers and two radars plus all the usual gubbins that goes along with that.
More
https://www.txtreport.com/news/2023-10-04-security-service-of-ukraine-attacked-the-latest-air-defense-system-%22triumph%22-near-belgorod-%E2%80%93-media-(video).SyEpfanqgp.html


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x630/3182cab481aad722cf76f7ebeb88b0d6_ca572affb3bf2b0491de6412dee 2e4e6f962ceab.jpeg

[NutLoose]

Russian and Belarussian fortifications and defences built up since Feb 2022, that does not remind me of an invading country, rather the opposite..

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=48.90677351399987%2C34.770839&z=6

[NutLoose]

Russias planned military spending... I do hope the west is watching this.

https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1709884072158179371

https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1709884072158179371

but to put that in context

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/

[NutLoose]

Partisans visiting Russia's new trenches in Crimea, a bucket of petrol and a match would see that lot burn nicely ;)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1709850947202007048

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1709850947202007048

[NutLoose]

It appears the ASRAAM Supercat British bodge hybrid job is scoring successes, and has been caught on film in action.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/british-air-to-air-missiles-turned-sams-seen-scoring-kill-in-ukraine

[Buster Hyman]

It appears the ASRAAM Supercat British bodge hybrid job is scoring successes, and has been caught on film in action.
Happy to reveal my complete lack of missile technology knowledge here, but what sort of range impact would 'ground launching' an ASRAAM have? (Considering it's short range already)

[NutLoose]

Stormer at work.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708013299588006392

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708013299588006392

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/04/uk-says-russia-plotting-to-sabotage-ukrainian-grain-tankers-with-sea-mines

UK says Russia plotting to sabotage Ukrainian grain tankers with sea mines I had mentioned this approach a few weeks ago in this thread as a possible application of "blockade" and use of Black Sea submarines by the Russians.
One wonders at how the UK know that the Russians are planning to do this.

[Ninthace]

If we told you, we would have to kill you and perhaps eat you :}

[ACW342]

If we told you, we would have to kill you and perhaps eat you :}

Texas beef? Probably a bit tough🤣

A342

[NutLoose]

At 64 he is well past his sell by date.

[FUMR]

Another horrific attack on innocent civilians by the Russians with over 50 killed. It really is time for the west to stop shuffling their feet and act. Putin has to be punished hard. They keep threatening us with nuclear attack. Maybe we should strike first with St Petersburg and Moscow wiped off the face of the earth! That's how frustrated I am with the present state of this war. It's not getting anywhere.

[NutLoose]

Err.... a pre-emptive strike may result in number 49 at the end of your street glowing in the dark and the temperature, beating October records for all time.



.

[Tartiflette Fan]

That in a word tells you they have more or less given up on Sevastopol as a safe harbour and their future in Crimea, it does make you wonder if they truly believe they can hold it.
It also will allow them to be closer to the straits to control Ukrainian shipping in and out of the Black sea?

It is a small distance ( 100 km or so) further than Novorossysk to the straits , so no change there, but further from Ukraine.

[BlankBox]

Partisans visiting Russia's new trenches in Crimea, a bucket of petrol and a match would see that lot burn nicely ;)


Whatever happened to all the "Zippo" devices from WWII ? They seemed quite benificial when used against dug-in enemy. Were they banned/inhumane ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamethrower#/media/File:Da_Nang,_Vietnam...._Sergeant_Robert_E._Fears_clears_an _area_using_his_flamethrower._-_NARA_-_532491.tif

[Herod]

Partisans visiting Russia's new trenches in Crimea, a bucket of petrol and a match would see that lot burn nicely ;)



https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1709850947202007048

I don't see any firing steps, or any means of going "over the top" These are made for shelter, not for action.

[FUMR]

I know Nutty, I'm just constantly frustrated with all this pi$$ing into wind by the West. Frankly I think it's only a matter of time anyway. Putin will never back down. He will go on to the very end and that may well end with number 49 at the end of my street glowing in the dark anyway!

[DogTailRed2]

Whatever happened to all the "Zippo" devices from WWII ? They seemed quite benificial when used against dug-in enemy. Were they banned/inhumane ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamethrower#/media/File:Da_Nang,_Vietnam...._Sergeant_Robert_E._Fears_clears_an _area_using_his_flamethrower._-_NARA_-_532491.tif (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamethrower#/media/File)

Flamethrowers are good against certain targets but you don't want to be using them where the enemy can take pot shots at you.
Useful for eradicating fanatics barricaded into fortified dugouts. Not so good trying to clear a trench were enemy fire is a problem and blow back from walls can injure the operator.
There's also the problem of transporting quite heavy fuels and the limited continuous fire. About 4 - 6 bursts and it's empty.
Probably not that popular with their operators either.

[DogTailRed2]

I know Nutty, I'm just constantly frustrated with all this pi$$ing into wind by the West. Frankly I think it's only a matter of time anyway. Putin will never back down. He will go on to the very end and that may well end with number 49 at the end of my street glowing in the dark anyway!
In my mind it is inevitable that either the USA and the West will be directly involved at some point or, Ukraine is just left to fight an endless war of attrition where Russia ultimately wins.
What concerns me is the seeming lack of concern by the West. We should be ramping up weapons production and training to meet the threat. Not hoping Putin goes away.

[Tartiflette Fan]

In my mind it is inevitable that either the USA and the West will be directly involved at some point or, Ukraine is just left to fight an endless war of attrition where Russia ultimately wins.
What concerns me is the seeming lack of concern by the West. We should be ramping up weapons production and training to meet the threat. Not hoping Putin goes away.

Do you have any concrete knowledge about historical figures and planned figures for either of these,, or just saying " we need to do better in my opinion" ?

[NutLoose]

One seriously lucky individual.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1707011983642415401

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1707011983642415401

[DogTailRed2]

Do you have any concrete knowledge about historical figures and planned figures for either of these,, or just saying " we need to do better in my opinion" ?

No, do you?

[Lonewolf_50]

If we told you, we would have to kill you and perhaps eat you :} ... and then you could have Hodges in the morning ... though I hear that it's the RAF who have this problem, not we Naval officers ....
"Dear Sir, I am glad to hear that your studio audience disapproves of the last skit as strongly as I. As a naval officer I abhor the implication that the Royal Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Navy) is a haven for cannibalism. It is well known that we now have the problem relatively under control, and that it is the R.A.F. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.A.F.) who now suffer the largest casualties in this area. And what do you think the Argylls (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argyll_and_Sutherland_Highlanders) ate in Aden (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aden_Emergency)? Arabs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabs)?
Yours etc.
Captain B. J. Smethwick in a white wine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_wine) sauce with shallots (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shallot), mushrooms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mushroom) and garlic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garlic)."



Texas beef? Probably a bit tough🤣A342 But if first soaked in tequila and slow cooked, like a brisket, possibly most excellent.
At 64 he is well past his sell by date. Well aged beef is a preference among the connoiseurs, is it not? :}

[antheads]

Do you have any concrete knowledge about historical figures and planned figures for either of these,, or just saying " we need to do better in my opinion" ?
The Dutch foreign minister Kajsa Ollongren:, at the warsaw security conference.

"It's very much in our interest to support Ukraine... It is a very cheap way to make sure that Russia with this regime is not a threat to the NATO alliance.”

What a rotten woman. Cheap tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives eh?

Ukraine is just left to fight an endless war of attrition where Russia ultimately wins.What concerns me is the seeming lack of concern by the West.

Agree completely, this escalation boiling the frog has run it's course. Either go hard or go home, because you will be going home anyway when the Repubs win the USA election and it'll be another Vietnam/Afghanistan.

Full access to novel stockpiles now! Ie ATACMS and Flying Tigers and whatever is the the kitbag. In the meantime is it moral as a country to be pushing for incremental advances when you don't have boots on the ground and are drip feeding? Almost as if the more blood spilt, the better. Weird.

German theorist Max Weber contrasted an “ethics of conviction” that battles against all injustice with an “ethics of responsibility” that calls for considering the potential results of such battles when weighing moral choices. An ethics of conviction argued that Western military intervention in Libya in 2011, intended to prevent mass atrocities by the barbarous Qadhafi regime, was the morally correct policy. An ethics of responsibility points out that America’s good intentions resulted in disastrous instability (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/africa-niger-coup/) that continues to radiate into Africa, the Middle East, and Europe to this day.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-ukraine-war-russia/

[jolihokistix]

I agree with munnst about ramping up weapons production and training, well, at first quietly if possible.
Better safe than sorry.

[RatherBeFlying]

We are happy to praise Ukrainian determination; unfortunately Russia has demonstrated determination in building superb ground defenses that have bogged down the Ukrainians who hopefully have prioritised conserving manpower.

​​​Putin keeps doubling down and as has been pointed out: Quantity is its own quality.

Who runs out first loses. House Republicans might just ensure Ukraine runs out first:uhoh:

[Lonewolf_50]

No, do you? To put this in perspective:

Recent Russian military budget is three times what it was before they began their "special military operation"
Current Ukraine foreign aid from the US alone is about six times their defense budget of 2022.
The UK recently began making noises that they are getting short of stuff (military equipment) to donate.
Russia's artillery shell production rate isn't keeping up with their own demand.
Modern military kit relies on a lot of long lead time materials (be they metals or composites) so "ramping up" a cooled down defense industrial base takes something close to a decade.
The modern industrial practice of keeping inventories low and doing a lot of "just in time" production comes a cropper when you need reserves, and strategic reserves.
All of the above costs a lot of money, money which is being called for by every other government spending program/requirement/need. There is not infiinite tax revenue to fund all of this.
The US defense budget in about 1999 was under $300 billion (US). It was just recentl approved at something liek $840 billion (US) (not sure how to translate 1999 dollars to 2023 dollars off the top of my head) and a lot of people in my country (in multiple parties) are not pleased with this level of military spending it is seen as too high.
Similar objections to big increases to spending on military stuff is common in most European capitals.
In short, a fast ramp up is not currently in the cards for both practical reasons, and ideological ones.

Something I am a bit familair with.
When the US did a lot to draw down their Cold War era defense budget, in the 90's, by the late 90's we were getting maybe 20 UH-60L's per year out of the Stratford plant for the Army and the National Guard, no Seahawks, and the CH-60S (now the MH-60S) only survived as a program by getting added to the Army Blackhawk multi year buy

To ramp up to higher production rates (see how many per month the UH-60M production lines have put out over the past decade or) didn't happen overnight, or even in a single year.

[DogTailRed2]

To put this in perspective:

Recent Russian military budget is three times what it was before they began their "special military operation"
Current Ukraine foreign aid from the US alone is about six times their defense budget of 2022.
The UK recently began making noises that they are getting short of stuff (military equipment) to donate.
Russia's artillery shell production rate isn't keeping up with their own demand.
Modern military kit relies on a lot of long lead time materials (be they metals or composites) so "ramping up" a cooled down defense industrial base takes something close to a decade.
The modern industrial practice of keeping inventories low and doing a lot of "just in time" production comes a cropper when you need reserves, and strategic reserves.
All of the above costs a lot of money, money which is being called for by every other government spending program/requirement/need. There is not infiinite tax revenue to fund all of this.
The US defense budget in about 1999 was under $300 billion (US). It was just recentl approved at something liek $840 billion (US) (not sure how to translate 1999 dollars to 2023 dollars off the top of my head) and a lot of people in my country (in multiple parties) are not pleased with this level of military spending it is seen as too high.
Similar objections to big increases to spending on military stuff is common in most European capitals.
In short, a fast ramp up is not currently in the cards for both practical reasons, and ideological ones.

Something I am a bit familair with.
When the US did a lot to draw down their Cold War era defense budget, in the 90's, by the late 90's we were getting maybe 20 UH-60L's per year out of the Stratford plant for the Army and the National Guard, no Seahawks, and the CH-60S (now the MH-60S) only survived as a program by getting added to the Army Blackhawk multi year buy

To ramp up to higher production rates (see how many per month the UH-60M production lines have put out over the past decade or) didn't happen overnight, or even in a single year.

All these stats are just stats and prove nothing. If the overwhelming economic and military weight of the West is so decisive why hasn't Ukraine won yet? Russia doesn't have to win, just survive and it can loose a lot more in men and materiel than the West can.

[DogTailRed2]

I agree with munnst about ramping up weapons production and training, well, at first quietly if possible.
Better safe than sorry.
Especially when the Times is reporting the UK has run out. Now the UK isn't the biggest player however all countries will run out without production. It just takes time and that's exactly what the West doesn't have and Putin does.
The West is bound financially and politically. Putin just needs to not fall out of a window.

[Lonewolf_50]

All these stats are just stats and prove nothing.
They prove, by your response, that you haven't a clue what you are talking about as regards increasing the output to higher levels. (I don't in the main disagree with your wish, however).
Although a lot of nations have begun that change toward greater budgeting and production, it takes time for that kind of change/ramp up to occur in the defense industrial base.
The capability and production rates cannot be turned on overnight, and it takes a lot of political will and infighting to get that undertaken and funded.
This stuff's expensive.
If the overwhelming economic and military weight of the West is so decisive why hasn't Ukraine won yet?
Who made that claim?
You?:
I certainly did not.
Someone in this thread, called munnst, said this:
We should be ramping up weapons production and training to meet the threat. Not hoping Putin goes away.
And I am pointing out that this is easy to say but takes a substantial amount of time and political will, hence funds, to do.
Beyond that, the support of the West is the only reason that Ukraine is still able to fight as of this morning.
But the political will in "The West" to do more than that seems not to have crystalized.
Russia doesn't have to win, just survive and it can loose a lot more in men and materiel than the West can.
So far, that assessment seems to be true.
The core reasons for that being the state of play are at the political level: You can rant all you want, about "we should be" and some nations are (interestingly, South Korea is).
But it doesn't happen overnight.
If you recall how France responded in the early months of this war/invasion, valuable time has indeed been lost in some important places.

[Tartiflette Fan]

No, do you?

Well, since you admit you don't know what you are talking about, it seems over the top to shout "DO MORE " when you have no idea where the current baseline is.

If you have ever had any experience in establishing any industrial production, you would know that you can't increase production like increasing the flow of water from a tap. If you want to make 155 mm shells, then the companies that produce forging machinery to War Dept/MOD specs cannot crank up production from a couple of hundred machines per year to a thousand because their suppliers will be similarly limited by skilled labour and production capacity, ditto lathes and heat-treatment equipment. I mentioned the 155 mm shell specifically because there is a report/video circulating on YT which describes how the Pentagon is seeking to increase production: there is a new factory being built in Texas and , from memory, they hope to triple production in three years. This still remains way below what Ukraine wants ( taking other supplies into account ) however the usage of 155 mm shells has probaly been 10 times what planners ever envisaged ( Russian supplies apparently even worse affected )

To get things down to very basic level, manufacturers are unlikely to dramatically increase production until they have orders - or at least, a real liklelihood of orders - in house. Equally defence organisations are probably unable to give the go-ahead because they will have planned their spending years ahead and such a huge conflict will blow all their contingency plans to hell. This then needs very long-winded multi-layer negotiations at the higher and highest political levels to break off sufficient funds to cover some of these needs and the result is many months ( a year or more ? ) before orders result.

If you want to keep your machinery working most effectively - if, say, the same machines produce both 155 mm and 120 mm shells - then you have to look at how much down-time ( zero production ) there is when you swap from one shell to the other and decide the best mix . Orders from your customers are not likely to help you very much with this.

[langleybaston]

It's not the first shell crisis in so far as UK is concerned ................... the first year of the Great War saw similar problems, with gunners rationed to a few rounds per day, reserved for defensive calls. I am not an expert on Great War politics [come to that, not on anything else] but I believe the shell problem nearly brought down a government.. In WW II the massive expansion was aided by the USA and Churchill's necessary ruthlessness.

We are reaping the dividend of Options for Change and the other weasel words.
Si vis pacem, para bellum, well understood and underlined as we drove through the gates of our stations in RAFG.

[NutLoose]

If you drip feed a side you get the inevitable, Ukraine know what they need and when, yet the farce continues, should we send… M777…HIMARS…Long Range Missiles…SPG’s…. M1’s…F16… and while this farce played out, Russia dug in as the west laughed at their little pointy concrete pyramids, their miles of trenches, their minefields…… the land that would have been easy to cross if the means had been provided when asked for deteriorated into a killing zone for brave Ukrainians, who are giving their lives to try and breach defences that should never have been there but for the intransigence of the West.

That damned Bridge should not be standing, Germany and the USA are refusing to provide the means of dropping it for fear of upsetting Russia, a Russia that has already had it dropped in places. I find it un fathomable that we are willing to pour billions of aid into Ukraine to help them retake their lands but are unwilling to go that one step further to make it obtainable.

I have always said, cut of the supply routes into Ukraine and you cut off the head off the bear. You can destroy tanks till the cows come home, but if Russia can deliver replacements to the front your advance is slowed until they run out of replacements or the ability to deliver them.

​​​​​​…

[NutLoose]

It's not the first shell crisis in so far as UK is concerned ................... the first year of the Great War saw similar problems, with gunners rationed to a few rounds per day, reserved for defensive calls. I am not an expert on Great War politics [come to that, not on anything else] but I believe the shell problem nearly brought down a government..




Ahh Gretna Green and the Carlisle state brewery.. I know it well :)

[langleybaston]

Ahh Gretna Green and the Carlisle state brewery.. I know it well :)

For those wishing to dig deeper, the reference is to:The Carlisle Experiment – limiting alcohol in wartime

[tdracer]

When the Viet Nam war was raging, I was in school - and in the band. New brass band instruments became exceedingly expensive and hard to come by because the tooling to make and form that brass had been devoted to making ammunition. It's the old guns/butter conundrum - you can't get more of one without getting less of the other.
There are an increasing number of American taxpayers who are questioning the wisdom of giving huge amounts of aid to Ukraine at a time when we can't even begin to pay our own bills. A few months ago, people who fully supported Ukrainian aid polled at about 60% - now that number is down to about 50%. That number can't get much lower without serious political consequences. Right now, the US government is borrowing nearly half of what it's spending - and as a certain old saying goes - something that can't go on forever, won't. And things are getting worse - a 33 Trillion Dollar dept and increasing interest rates mean that a trillion dollars a year are needed just to pay the interest on the debt. Add to that, Ukraine doesn't have the best record when it comes to government corruption, and people can't help but wonder if this is money well spent, or if too much of it is ending up lining the pockets of Ukrainian (and American) politicians. Breaking the back of the Russian economy would be a Pyrrhic victory if it breaks the US economy in the process.
So far - as far as I can tell - the primary Western plan has been to let Ukraine do the heavy lifting in the belief that that - eventually - the economic and manpower drains on Russia will turn the people against Putin - either forcing him to withdraw or out an upper story window. Problem is - a year and a half in - it doesn't appear that Putin is much closer to that window. Yes, the Russian economy and support for the war has suffered, but not enough to turn the tide. Russian propaganda has - so far - managed to minimized impact on Russian public opinion. Continued major Ukrainian successes on the ground could change that - personally I think if Ukraine was able to recapture significant portions of Crimea, it would be too much for even Putin to withstand.
The plan of letting Putin implode may well still work, but we need to be seriously thinking about a 'Plan B'.

[NutLoose]

Which comes back to the providing of long range missiles to take down the bridge etc, is there any of the costs being explained to the public in the USA, such as it costs more for the US to decommission Cluster weapons than it does to provide them and items nearing their life expiration to Ukraine to “decommission” them?
So the US is saving money by doing that.

Also the funds being provided are actually being spent on jobs in the US to manufacture the ammunition etc, thus creating work and jobs for the USA, and the knock on effect is the mass orders for the likes of HIMARS from Poland etc

Seriously the 30 Abrams should have been 300, that would have made a difference as well.

[Lonewolf_50]

Seriously the 30 Abrams should have been 300, that would have made a difference as well. While various Europeans dithered when they want to donate certain tanks - Leopards as but one example - but can't because the Germans or Swiss are not willing to agree (and some of their bits pieces are in various military equipment) to the transfer .... The problems are multi layered and must drive some of the defense planners in Kiev nuts.

[NutLoose]

What I was trying to get across was if you keep dragging supply out in dribs and drabs, 10 of this here, 10 of this the next tranche etc…then you are never going to have an overwhelming force to have an effect on the battlefield, so you are by that limiting the ability to strike and can simply be replacing those lost to attrition due to being forced to operate as smaller than ideal units.

​​​​​​…

[Lonewolf_50]

... if you keep dragging supply out in dribs and drabs, 10 of this here, 10 of this the next tranche etc…then you are never going to have an overwhelming force to have an effect on the battlefield, so you are by that limiting the ability to strike and can simply be replacing those lost to attrition due to being forced to operate as smaller than ideal units.
No disagreement there.

[NutLoose]

While various Europeans dithered when they want to donate certain tanks - Leopards as but one example - but can't because the Germans or Swiss are not willing to agree (and some of their bits pieces are in various military equipment) to the transfer .... The problems are multi layered and must drive some of the defense planners in Kiev nuts.

Agreed, somewhere along the line NATO needs to look at preventing countries within NATO or supplying NATO from being able to veto operations of the said weapons provided, or provided by them to third party countries, but of course that applies just as much to the USA.

[tdracer]

Also the funds being provided are actually being spent on jobs in the US to manufacture the ammunition etc, thus creating work and jobs for the USA, and the knock on effect is the mass orders for the likes of HIMARS from Poland etc


But we're still borrowing the money to do that - and effectively giving away the result. Easier to sell borrowing money to build roads and bridges (which - BTW - is badly needed - the US Interstate system is rapidly approaching its design life) so not only do you get the economic benefits of the jobs, you get the economic benefits of the product.

Mind you, I'm not saying the US should cut off Ukraine - from my knothole it's better to stop Putin now than to prologue the agony. I'm just pointing out that it's becoming a hard sell by the day, and it's not just the US far right that's wondering how long we can afford to keep it up.

[nomorehelosforme]

No disagreement there.

I totally understand the logic of what you and NutLoose are saying, my concern would be when giving Ukraine enough equipment in one go to hit Russia hard how might Putin react/retaliate if he feared he was losing?

[NutLoose]

Yes, but what I was trying to get across is there are also benefits. By that I mean military sales have increased by $50 billion to the rest of the world, while Ukraine received $27 billion in arms, so Ukraine is in effect a giant arms sales display showing the world the advantage of US ( and the rest of the worlds) weapons, which is driving sales that are greater than the aid being provided, does that make sense?

​​​​​WASHINGTON ― Sales of military weapons between the U.S. and foreign governments shot up to nearly $51.9 billion in fiscal 2022, largely because U.S. allies in Europe are rushing to arm themselves in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago.

The total represented a 49% jump from $34.8 billion in sales the previous year, according to new State Department data. Direct commercial sales ― from contractors to governments ― also grew, reaching $153.7 billion, up from $103.4 billion the year before.



One factor in the surge is the easing of the global pandemic that in 2021 depressed sales from a spike to $83.5 billion in 2020 (https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2020/10/01/us-state-department-cleared-835-billion-in-foreign-military-sales-in-fiscal-2020/). Also, since Russia’s invasion, European allies and allies in the Pacific have sought U.S. arms to deter Chinese aggression.

One of the biggest orders in 2022 was placed by Indonesia (https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/12/22/indonesia-gives-up-on-russian-aircraft-purchase-instead-turning-to-us-and-french-options/), which analysts see as building a military intended to stave off China. The U.S. approved Indonesia to buy three dozen Boeing-made F-15ID aircraft and related equipment in a deal worth as much as $13.9 billion.

In September, the State Department announced a $1.1 billion arms package for Taiwan (https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/09/06/us-approves-11-billion-taiwan-arms-sale/), to include 60 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and 100 Sidewinder tactical air missiles.

In Europe, days ahead of Russia’s invasion, Poland (https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/02/18/state-department-clears-6-billion-sale-of-tanks-to-poland/) ordered 250 General Dynamics-made M1 Abrams tanks in a deal worth as much as $6 billion. Germany (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/14/germany-clinches-8-billion-purchase-of-35-f-35-aircraft-from-the-us/) in July ordered $8.4 billion worth of Lockheed Martin-made F-35 aircraft, munitions and related gear, citing “a need for unity within NATO, and a credible deterrent” to Russia.



Some of the most scrutinized (https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/10/12/democrats-jump-into-saudi-arms-fight-after-biden-detente-ends/) orders of the year came from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which Biden administration paused over the two Gulf nations’ involvement in the war in Yemen.

The State Department, in August, notified Congress (https://www.defensenews.com/2022/08/02/state-department-clears-weapons-sales-to-saudi-arabia-uae/) this year of one deal for Saudi Arabia to buy 300 Raytheon Technologies-made MIM-104E Patriot missiles for more than $3 billion and another for the United Arab Emirates to buy 96 Lockheed Martin-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system for $2.2 billion.

Foreign Military Sales is the core activity of the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, and the State Department reviews the planned deals to ensure they meet U.S. foreign policy and national security goals.



The FMS numbers represent potential arms sales reported to Congress, but not final sales. If Congress does not reject a potential sale, it enters negotiations that can change prices and quantities.

The Biden administration sees security aid as a means to cement international relationships and to fire up America’s domestic defense industrial base. A top State Department official overseeing the arms sale process, which the Biden administration is working to streamline, said U.S. security aid must be modernized to meet a moment of “tectonic change.”

“This historic increase in arms sales was fueled, in part, through our provision of security assistance,” Jessica Lewis, the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, was slated to say at a Meridian International Center event Wednesday. “Security assistance greases the wheels of these security partnerships, furthering our national security while strengthening our bilateral relationships.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/06/13/us-defense-secretary-austin-meets-thai-leader-to-boost-ties/) launched an internal Tiger Team in August to evaluate the process of executing Foreign Military Sales cases, with the aim of making it faster. The team is co-led by the Pentagon’s policy office and its acquisition and sustainment shop.

Administration officials have said Russia’s sanctions-struck defense industry (https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/03/02/new-us-sanctions-target-russias-multibillion-dollar-defense-sector/) is creating an opportunity for U.S. and western defense firms to take a bite of Moscow’s share of the market. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia was in 2021 the second-largest arms exporter after the United States, and its chief clients were India, China and Egypt.

Lewis, in prepared remarks obtained by Defense News, said the U.S. encourages Eastern European allies to shed their Russian-made gear in favor of American-made equipment, using grant assistance, military training and other means.

“By transitioning countries off Russian equipment, we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to chart the course of the next several decades. This goes beyond arms — it includes maintenance, parts, training, military exercises and more,” she said.

Lewis also emphasized the range of security assistance tools the U.S. is using, beyond arms sales, to build alliances and counter Russia and China.

The U.S. has provided nearly $27 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia began its invasion. Congress has far surpassed the previous $100 million cap on presidential authority to draw from military stockpiles, and it’s appropriated more than $4.8 billion in Foreign Military Financing grants and loans for allies to buy U.S.-made arms.

Pandemic-related acquisition issues have fueled a backlog (https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/04/14/pandemic-delays-spark-14-billion-backlog-of-us-defense-transfers-to-taiwan/) in the U.S. delivering $14.2 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan that the island has purchased since 2019. The backlogged equipment included Taiwan’s $8 billion purchase of 66 F-16 fighter jets, but also smaller, asymmetric weapons systems Washington believes would be useful in deterring and thwarting a potential Chinese invasion.

China considers the self-governing island a rogue province and its leaders have pledged to bring it back under Beijing’s control, by force if necessary.

Referencing delays for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Lewis said the U.S. must “build more and build faster,” cautioning that it’s “not enough to arm Ukraine and support Taiwan’s self-defense capacity if the weapons take years to arrive.”

“Long production timelines will cause us to miss out on this opportunity,” she said. “These delays undermine the competitiveness of the U.S. defense industry, and in some cases negatively impact the security of our allies and partners.”

In addition to the the defense industrial base’s challenges to manufacture and deliver capability on time, a hurdle for the U.S. government is a lack of contracting and program staff within the Pentagon to manage sales, said Keith Webster, the president of U.S. Chamber of Commerces’s Defense and Aerospace Council.

Still, Webster called the newly published numbers of notifications and actual sales “very robust.” Because Capitol Hill has been favorable to most sales, Webster said he expects anything notified to Congress to be implemented.

“If something is not eventually implemented post notification it most likely would be at the request of the foreign government,” he said.

Earlier this year, Defense Security Cooperation Agency director James Hursch projected that allied efforts to backfill stocks of arms sent to Ukraine will drive “continuing increases” in foreign military sales over the next three years.

“We have enjoyed a rebound in arm sales,” Hursch said in October at the Association of the United States Army conference. “I’m not sure how steep the slope [of the increase] will be, but that’s based on the facts that our allies and friends will be replenishing their stocks.”

Allies are also expected to draw lessons from Ukraine’s fight to buy the next generation of equipment. Pentagon officials said at the time that they expect future investments in armored maneuver forces and precision fires, among other categories of arms used in Ukraine.

​​


https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/01/25/us-arms-export-approvals-soared-in-2022/

[ORAC]

Photo not copied out of respect.

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1709940269796430164?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​"It was a shop with a cafe nearby. There were locals in the store, locals in the cafe, where the memorial service for a local resident was held. In total, there were about 60 people on the territory. 50 died, including a 6-year-old girl," - Minister of Internal Affairs about today's strike on Groza village in Kharkiv region.

"There were 330 residents in this village. From each family, from each yard, one person attended the memorial dinner," the minister said.

About each sixth resident of the village was killed.

This is the largest strike in Kharkiv region since the beginning of the war. By preliminary conclusions, it was an Iskander missile.

Deepest condolences to the loved ones of the killed and wounded people.

[Lonewolf_50]

I totally understand the logic of what you and NutLoose are saying, my concern would be when giving Ukraine enough equipment in one go to hit Russia hard how might Putin react/retaliate if he feared he was losing? My somewhat cynical response goes something like this: since the Russian propaganda machine has already threatened, on multiple occasions, to launch nukes at various places in Europe if their Special Military Operation is interfered with, I don't think they can get more upset then they already are.
My more sober response is: I am not sure what the top Russian pain point is, in terms of loss.
When that is reached, something is gonna give: either they stop, or they raise the stakes a lot.
Not gonna pretend I know which they would do.

[SRMman]

I was watching the 6pm Sky news this evening and there was a “Breaking News” item of a Putin live broadcast. Putin was saying that hand grenade fragments had been found in the wreckage of Prigozhin’s plane crash, also saying to the effect that there had been no external cause of the crash….clearly implying that the crew or passengers caused it!

What disgusted me was that this story was broadcast with absolutely no Sky comment, as if it was coming from any other reliable source, and no mention of Putin’s 100% track record of lies and deceptions. IMO stories like this from reputable news channels should be preceded with an appropriate veracity warning. Or preferably not broadcast at all.

[langleybaston]

I was watching the 6pm Sky news this evening and there was a “Breaking News” item of a Putin live broadcast. Putin was saying that hand grenade fragments had been found in the wreckage of Prigozhin’s plane crash, also saying to the effect that there had been no external cause of the crash….clearly implying that the crew or passengers caused it!

What disgusted me was that this story was broadcast with absolutely no Sky comment, as if it was coming from any other reliable source, and no mention of Putin’s 100% track record of lies and deceptions. IMO stories like this from reputable news channels should be preceded with an appropriate veracity warning. Or preferably not broadcast at all.

All breaking news from all media should come with a veracity warning. Most is hastily written by pimply upstarts or drink-raddled column fodder.
One of the blessings of increasing age is the development of cynicism. I last watched live news on any channel, be it TV or radio, the day Brexit was announced. [That is a judgement of media, not the Brexit result]. The less I know from instant media, the less miserable I am.
I do not allow my valet to watch either.

[Low average]

Although Putin is referred to as "President", I believe his actual role is Chief Propogandist for the Kremlin.

[DODGYOLDFART]

All breaking news from all media should come with a veracity warning. Most is hastily written by pimply upstarts or drink-raddled column fodder.
One of the blessings of increasing age is the development of cynicism. I last watched live news on any channel, be it TV or radio, the day Brexit was announced. [That is a judgement of media, not the Brexit result]. The less I know from instant media, the less miserable I am.
I do not allow my valet to watch either.
Yes but what about she who must be obeyed?

[NutLoose]

Ahhh, not that old pony, playing Russian Roulette on an aircraft with a grenade and one pin.

[NutLoose]

I just don’t understand, why do people not want to holiday here, after all we have not so good air defences :p

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710015393543155986

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710015393543155986



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/680x680/image_2643a1981edc6e56e8f949469673a30ae8752677.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

A gift from one of the poorest countries in Europe. :D

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710009442526249428

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710009442526249428

[NutLoose]

Bastards.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709896188059623656

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709896188059623656

[NutLoose]

Ermmmm

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709554485121392930

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709554485121392930

[GlobalNav]

All breaking news from all media should come with a veracity warning. Most is hastily written by pimply upstarts or drink-raddled column fodder.
One of the blessings of increasing age is the development of cynicism. I last watched live news on any channel, be it TV or radio, the day Brexit was announced. [That is a judgement of media, not the Brexit result]. The less I know from instant media, the less miserable I am.
I do not allow my valet to watch either.
How terrible. There no pimply upstarts or drink-raddled listeners/viewers in the audience.

[Sfojimbo]

As I read the comments here, it strikes me that some have not given any thought to what NATO intervention would look like. I am sure it would not consist of more tanks IFVs and artillery: a continuation of the current scenario. It would consist of air power taking control of the battlespace, and removing or seriously cutting back on Russia's threat to aircraft. It would also free the Black sea of the Russian navy. This might come a little bit at a time or it might come all at once. If Ukraine needed a few brigades of armor or infantry to free up reserves or whatever, there's plenty of that available in the neighborhood already.

I see no need to drastically ramp up production of artillery ammunition etc. I don't believe that's the way things will play out.

[Tartiflette Fan]

If
That damned Bridge should not be standing, Germany and the USA are refusing to provide the means of dropping it for fear of upsetting Russia, a Russia that has already had it dropped in places. I find it un fathomable that we are willing to pour billions of aid into Ukraine to help them retake their lands but are unwilling to go that one step further to make it obtainable.

​​​​​​…

Nutty,, your comment may not be correct. ATACMS has a range of 300 km, but Ukraine is alrady using a missile that has a range of 500 km: Storm Shadow.O.K. I am not being completely clear there, bUt S -S does have that range in its unbridled form. The version they are currently using may/may not be limited to the 300 km of the export version ( already equal to ATACMS ) in line with Missile Technology Control Regime (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_Technology_Control_Regime) guidelines, however I can't find any clear detail on that. If you ask why then they would not use it on the bridge, then I could only answer "long-term starategy" and that is a guess. Currently, as I understand it, supplies via the bridge are really very limited and so its utility to the Russians is not that great, so leaving it up is not a disaster. The only reasons I can speculate on why it hasn't been destroyed ( if they do have long-range S-S ) is that they fear its destruction really could trigger a nuclear red line reaction with Putin as he is so closely identified with it, or they want to leave it open as a way of retreat for the Russski troops, so that they will not try to fight-to-the-death if/when the UKA starts marching into the peninsula.

As far as strategy is concerned, I have to say I have no idea, beyond what I see as normal logic. For instance, I do not understand why UKA is not hammering both Tokmak and the so-called land-bridge which is bringing in the bulk of Russki supplies. They are now easily within Himars range The Forbes article (link below ) from Oct 2022 says that even then the main rail-line was easily within range of UKA artillery, so why they haven't blasted the hell out of it is a mystery to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

" It is propelled at Mach 0.8 by a Microturbo TRI 60-30 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microturbo_TRI_60) turbojet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbojet) engine and has range of approximately 560 km (300 nmi; 350 mi).[11] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow#cite_note-rafequip-11)"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

M48 (ATACMS Quick Reaction Unitary [QRU]) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries the 500-pound (230 kg) WDU-18/B penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead of the US Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Navy)'s Harpoon anti-ship missile, which was packaged into the newly designed WAU-"23/B warhead section. Range: 70–300 km (43–186 mi). "

https://www.businessinsider.com/storm-shadow-hits-2-crimea-bridges-scalps-missile-arrive-france-2023-8?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=Ukraine%20hit%202%20key%20bridges,more%20of%20t hem%20from%20France&text=Ukraine%20shared%20images%20of%20French,bridges%20and%2 0a%20gas%20pipeline.

" A colonel in Kyiv's air defense command, who was not named, recently told The Times of London (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-bombers-us-patriot-surface-to-air-missiles-ukraine-dh6x8vcgn) that the missiles in Ukraine's possession have twice their publicized range — about 310 miles, rather than the 155 miles advertised by its manufacturer.In July, the UK's Ministry of Defence declined to specify whether the missiles sent to Ukraine had been modified in any way. "


""r=US&IR=T#:~:text=Ukraine%20hit%202%20key%20bridges,more%20of%20t hem%20from%20France&text=Ukraine%20shared%20images%20of%20French,bridges%20and%2 0a%20gas%20pipeline.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/14/blow-up-russian-trains-liberate-the-coast-ukraine-has-a-plan-to-win-the-war/

[Tartiflette Fan]

As I read the comments here, it strikes me that some have not given any thought to what NATO intervention would look like. I am sure it would not consist of more tanks IFVs and artillery: a continuation of the current scenario. It would consist of air power taking control of the battlespace, and removing or seriously cutting back on Russia's threat to aircraft. It would also free the Black sea of the Russian navy. This might come a little bit at a time or it might come all at once. If Ukraine needed a few brigades of armor or infantry to free up reserves or whatever, there's plenty of that available in the neighborhood already.

I see no need to drastically ramp up production of artillery ammunition etc. I don't believe that's the way things will play out.

I don't know what you base that on, but you are pretty much a lone voice in the media/vlogosphere.

[Sfojimbo]

I don't know what you base that on, but you are pretty much a lone voice in the media/vlogosphere.
I already explained it but I'll say it again for you.

A NATO intervention will not be more tanks IFVs and infantry; it would be with air power.
What NATO has on the ground right now without more armor from the US is more than enough to overrun the currently heavily worn down Russian army. NATO had prepared for a Russian army that was far larger / more potent than what actually existed and now it has been reduced by a third by the Ukrainians. All they have left is nukes and more Infantry is not the needed response if it comes to that.

[SVK]

I see no need to drastically ramp up production of artillery ammunition etc. I don't believe that's the way things will play out.

But, what if you’re wrong?

Whether or not it plays out for the better or worse, the military is the ultimate insurance / organisation of last resort / no fail option. It must remain equipped and stocked to do its job. Otherwise, like Russia, we are a paper tiger waiting to be found out.

[Sfojimbo]

But, what if you’re wrong?

Whether or not it plays out for the better or worse, the military is the ultimate insurance / organisation of last resort / no fail option. It must remain equipped and stocked to do its job. Otherwise, like Russia, we are a paper tiger waiting to be found out.If I'm wrong and NATO intervened with hordes of Tanks, IFVs, infantry and artillery?

Is that what you are saying?
That isn't the way NATO would intervene.
I'm sure of it.

[ORAC]

Reference the UK MOD warning about Russia mining in the Black Sea traffic lanes…

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1710174647818334346?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING:

The Turkish-flagged freighter Kafkametler has suffered damages after it hit a naval mine, which then exploded in the Black Sea off the Romanian coast.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x684/image_2c74d48f468a351f0dd7780e46913d3798135bc8.png
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[Tartiflette Fan]

I already explained it but I'll say it again for you.

A NATO intervention will not be more tanks IFVs and infantry; it would be with air power.
What NATO has on the ground right now without more armor from the US is more than enough to overrun the currently heavily worn down Russian army. NATO had prepared for a Russian army that was far larger / more potent than what actually existed and now it has been reduced by a third by the Ukrainians. All they have left is nukes and more Infantry is not the needed response if it comes to that.

Your explanation is based on your supposition ( once agian your own work, with nobody else discussing it ) that NATO intervenes. Yeah, that's really convincing.

[Sfojimbo]

Your explanation is based on your supposition ( once agian your own work, with nobody else discussing it ) that NATO intervenes. Yeah, that's really convincing.

"nobody else discussing it"?

My opening post on this subject was pushback against discussions here (and all over the blogspace) calling for ramping up production of military gear. I was joining a discussion that was already taking place.

[Tartiflette Fan]

"nobody else discussing it"?

My opening post on this subject was pushback against discussions here (and all over the blogspace) calling for ramping up production of military gear. I was joining a discussion that was already taking place.

Why don't you stick to the point ? " Ramping up production of military gear." is light-years away from NATO intervention, yet you are conflating them .

[Spunky Monkey]

Of late, tis thread had turned a little doom-laden however this recent talk is very interesting and insightful. Not just on how the war is being played out, but also of public opinion around the world. Quite possibly the public opinion of the US is key to the future of this war.
(I hope the discussion isn't culled and moved to JB).

The threat of running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine is a big one and growing daily. Russia is ramping up production especially of basic equipment, equipment that is easier to produce than the Hi-Tech western kit.
While we laugh at the idea of old kit from NK, it is a military industrial complex that is probably ramping up for free Russian oil and pilfered dollars.
China is also an unknown element, while not wanting to openly support Russia it is getting oil at a very discounted rate and seeing the West suffer. China has the only industrial complex that could take on the US in terms of volume.
Perhaps it will turn that complex to helping Russia degrade the West.

Without being overly dramatic we are in the Phoney War of 1939-40 in the UK.

So we should be emptying the Arizona Desert of all the stored military hardware and getting some of that to Ukraine, otherwise what are they storing it for? (Not saying they should be sending B52s though :)).

[Sfojimbo]

Why don't you stick to the point ? " Ramping up production of military gear." is light-years away from NATO intervention, yet you are conflating them .
Your posts shed no light on the discussion of whether a military buildup is needed.
I believe your posts are much more intended as a personal attack.

Goodbye.

[Uberteknik]

But, what if you’re wrong?

Whether or not it plays out for the better or worse, the military is the ultimate insurance / organisation of last resort / no fail option. It must remain equipped and stocked to do its job. Otherwise, like Russia, we are a paper tiger waiting to be found out.

If I'm wrong and NATO intervened with hordes of Tanks, IFVs, infantry and artillery?

Is that what you are saying?
That isn't the way NATO would intervene.
I'm sure of it.
If I may interject both are valid points and mutually inclusive:

Whilst Ukraine is valiantly holding her own against a vile aggressor, the outcome of this war and beyond is utterly dependent on the continued support of the Western alliance comprising U.S. and the NATO member states.

Politically that means keeping the general Western public on side which in turn also means firmly grasping the likely end game with all of the ramifications for global stability that entails.

However much I want Ukraine to achieve pushing out Russia to the pre 2014 borders swiftly and decisively, that goal comes with the very real prospect of Russian regime desperation facing existential threat and resorting to escalation - first tactical then strategic nuclear exchange.

Faced with that risk, Western populations will conclude it's a price they will not pay and the outcome will be politically negotiated armistice or peace settlement with the concession of territory to Russia as the least worst outcome.

Accelerating the war to that end by swiftly ramping up military supplies to produce a decisive routing of the occupation may catalyse desperation within the Kremlin. Regime collapse is, imho, unlikely since the narrative pursued by the Kremlin is firmly accepted by the Russian populace and therefore any existential threat will come with it the acceptance of nuclear use as unavoidable.- as the least worst outcome.

It is therefore logical and necessary to erode Russian occupation to a point where they are forced into an untenable position but not so fast to conclude the nuclear option as the only way out.

Which means incremental increases in Ukraine military capability such that when negotiations inevitably begin, they along with the Western backers are in a position to make renewed offensives by the Kremlin prohibitively costly and therefore concluding the door to taking Ukraine is closed with an uneasy cold-war style stand off ensuing.

Of course Ukrainian frustration is palpable.They are paying for holding off that nuclear end game with the sacrifice of Ukraine's best and bravest. Every single one of us sitting comfortably in our homes will owe our existence to the courage of Ukraine.

Our support must not be allowed to waver no matter how hard the journey to secure a lasting peace.

[NutLoose]

Nutty,, your comment may not be correct. .

" A colonel in Kyiv's air defense command, who was not named, recently told The Times of London (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-bombers-us-patriot-surface-to-air-missiles-ukraine-dh6x8vcgn) that the missiles in Ukraine's possession have twice their publicized range — about 310 miles, rather than the 155 miles advertised by its manufacturer.In July, the UK's Ministry of Defence declined to specify whether the missiles sent to Ukraine had been modified in any way. "


Well he would, wouldn't he, ramping up the range whether true or not, forces Russia to deploy critical infrastructure even further back.

And previous Storm Shadow hits on bridges haven't exactly dropped them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65982817

Taurus in bridge killing mode and the reasons why it is the ideal weapon.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1709670694139711722

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1709670694139711722

[Buster15]

If I may interject both are valid points and mutually inclusive:

Whilst Ukraine is valiantly holding her own against a vile aggressor, the outcome of this war and beyond is utterly dependent on the continued support of the Western alliance comprising U.S. and the NATO member states.

Politically that means keeping the general Western public on side which in turn also means firmly grasping the likely end game with all of the ramifications for global stability that entails.

However much I want Ukraine to achieve pushing out Russia to the pre 2014 borders swiftly and decisively, that goal comes with the very real prospect of Russian regime desperation facing existential threat and resorting to escalation - first tactical then strategic nuclear exchange.

Faced with that risk, Western populations will conclude it's a price they will not pay and the outcome will be politically negotiated armistice or peace settlement with the concession of territory to Russia as the least worst outcome.

Accelerating the war to that end by swiftly ramping up military supplies to produce a decisive routing of the occupation may catalyse desperation within the Kremlin. Regime collapse is, imho, unlikely since the narrative pursued by the Kremlin is firmly accepted by the Russian populace and therefore any existential threat will come with it the acceptance of nuclear use as unavoidable.- as the least worst outcome.

It is therefore logical and necessary to erode Russian occupation to a point where they are forced into an untenable position but not so fast to conclude the nuclear option as the only way out.

Which means incremental increases in Ukraine military capability such that when negotiations inevitably begin, they along with the Western backers are in a position to make renewed offensives by the Kremlin prohibitively costly and therefore concluding the door to taking Ukraine is closed with an uneasy cold-war style stand off ensuing.

Of course Ukrainian frustration is palpable.They are paying for holding off that nuclear end game with the sacrifice of Ukraine's best and bravest. Every single one of us sitting comfortably in our homes will owe our existence to the courage of Ukraine.

Our support must not be allowed to waver no matter how hard the journey to secure a lasting peace.

There is little doubt that Putin has and will continue to expect the countries that are currently supporting Ukraine to gradually reduce their support as time goes on and politicians start to take their eyes off the war.

I am no expert, but it appears that there are a few scenarios, including:
Ukraine is victorious and manages to take back all the occupied territories post 2014. Hopefully this is the outcome.
Russia is able to bomb Ukraine into submission. Hopefully this is not the outcome.
The West grows weary of continuing its military and financial support to Ukraine and the war ends in a stalemate with Russia occupying a sizable chunk of Ukrainian territory. A quite possible outcome.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Well he would, wouldn't he, ramping up the range whether true or not, forces Russia to deploy critical infrastructure even further back.

You are ignoring all the other points that confirm 500 km range and no evidence that Ukraine has miisiles with reduced range.

And previous Storm Shadow hits on bridges haven't exactly dropped them./QUOTE]

Let's wait and see what Taurus can do ( if Scholz ever stops prevaricating .)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65982817

Taurus in bridge killing mode and the reasons why it is the ideal weapon.



https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1709670694139711722

"Some say that Storm Shadow /SCALP-EG has the same capabilities and when it comes to the warhead type and strength it is true, but this is not all of it because what they forget is the range. The TAURUS missile has a range of 500 km, far greater range than the British/French counterparts with 300 km."

This ideal weapon has an identical warhead to S-S ( as confirmed by poster you quote ) and an identical range ( your quoted poster gets it wrong at 300 km )

I see no difference in these missiles

...................................S-S ............................... Taurus
Speed................... M 0.95.................................... M 0.95
Range ......... ........550 km ..................................>500 km
Warhead....... .... 450 kg * ...................................480 kg **

*The two stage warhead is made up from an initial shaped charge (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaped_charge), which cuts a passage through armour, concrete, earth, etc., allowing a larger following warhead to penetrate inside the target. The weapon is designed to allow a cruise missile to achieve the degree of hard-target penetration formerly only possible by the use of laser-guided gravity bombs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser-guided_bomb).

**Intended targets are hardened bunkers; command, control, and communications facilities; airfield (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airfield) and port facilities; ammunition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammunition) storage facilities; ships in port or at sea; area target attack and bridges.[1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350#cite_note-12)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

Really couldn't be much more alike on these characteristics except for the different national flags.

[FUMR]

Buster15, and in addition to your final outcome, the west pays the price some years down the line when Russia (now full of confidence) decide on a Special Operation to free western Europe!

My only conclusion is that Russia MUST be defeated NOW at whatever costs. If the west weakens their resolve now, they will suffer a worse fate later!

[NutLoose]

Tart, read what he posted with it, the extra range allows the missiles to skirt defences and come in from different directions.

[Tartiflette Fan]

There is little doubt that Putin has and will continue to expect the countries that are currently supporting Ukraine to gradually reduce their support as time goes on and politicians start to take their eyes off the war.

I am no expert, but it appears that there are a few scenarios, including:
Ukraine is victorious and manages to take back all the occupied territories post 2014. Hopefully this is the outcome.
Russia is able to bomb Ukraine into submission. Hopefully this is not the outcome.
The West grows weary of continuing its military and financial support to Ukraine and the war ends in a stalemate with Russia occupying a sizable chunk of Ukrainian territory. A quite possible outcome.

I seem to be more optimistic than a number of posters and for the following reasons.

UKA have slowly ground their way through the Russian defences prepared over nearly 12 months, and done so without air-cover and whilst confronting mine-fields beyond anything NATO strategists could imagine. They are now on the point of breaking the third defensive line and will have a much easier time until they reach Tokmak, a heavily fortified, vital transport hub.about 15 km distant.

If all promises and plans are met, significant supplies of GLSDB should arrive this month. This will immediately transform the achievable ranges of rocket artillery from 90 km ( HIMARS ) to 150 km and the missile will be availablke in very large quatities at a low-price because it is made up of two existing components. All Russian positions all along the Sea of Azov can then be bombarded with large numbers of very accurate rockets carrying a 200 lb h-e warhead which ought to allow the crippling/demolition of what is referred to as the Russian land-bridge - vital to the RuA for supplying its forces in the South and Crimea.

I am much less optimistic about Donbass because defences have been prepared over 10 years and supply is a matter of driving over the long land border. Here, i fear, Russian numbers - and carefree sacrifice of troops - would blunt/nullify Ukr tactics and superior weaponry and any success in the South would make the Kremlin even more determined to never release it (Donbass ).

[Tartiflette Fan]

Tart, read what he posted with it, the extra range allows the missiles to skirt defences and come in from different directions.

Read what I said and quoted. He has got the range wrong. S-S has a range of 550 km and not 300 as he claims.

[NutLoose]

And you know that as a100% cast in stone fact, or just what you have read?

[NutLoose]

Things go better with Coca Cola..... It takes some beating when the Dumass is telling the Russian people, that the British Military and Coca Cola are in cohoots with Ukraine in dealing in selling children and body organs. She must be shorting Coke instead of drinking the stuff.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710249802175279532

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710249802175279532

[NutLoose]

Tokmak has had explosions reported.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710226571510833526

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710226571510833526

[NutLoose]

Brining home the tragedy of those 51 killed in the Islander attack, this is far more powerful than simple words... :(

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710025929743847828

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710025929743847828

[NutLoose]

I cannot believe they got so lucky, someone must have passed information about the wake.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710173530262765891


https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710173530262765891

[Tartiflette Fan]

And you know that as a100% cast in stone fact, or just what you have read?

Nutty, this is becoming tiresome. I think I have given the Wiki link three times where it quotes 550 km and also put it in that little table of comparisons. Let's reverse it though and ask you to quote anything that says Ukraine has S-S with a range limited to 300 km.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1710239592492794072

https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1710239592492794072

Father and son joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the early days of the war. Before the full-scale invasion, they were in Poland, but after Russia's attack, they returned home and went straight to the recruitment office.

According to media reports, after only three days of combat, Andriy, the father, received a fatal wound to the neck. He was buried in a military cemetery in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

n June, his son, Denys was discharged from service due to health conditions. He then returned to Hroza, got married, and decided to finally re-bury his father.

About 60 people gathered for the memorial service — they were killed by a Russian missile. Denys, his wife, grandfather, grandmother, and his wife's mother all perished.

[NutLoose]

Nutty, this is becoming tiresome. I think I have given the Wiki link three times where it quotes 550 km and also put it in that little table of comparisons. Let's reverse it though and ask you to quote anything that says Ukraine has S-S with a range limited to 300 km.

I am just trying to get across that what is put out in the press and as military capabilities are often not the truth, you do NOT give out to the opposition your true capabilities. To do so would be madness, so you massage the figures to play down the range etc..

If as an example you put out your new super fighter had a max altitude of 56 thousand feet, then the other side would build a missile to intercept that, but if in reality the aircrafts max altitude is 66 thousand then it is ineffective.

[NutLoose]

Remember the guy holding up the note "Crimea is Ukrainian" as the Naval HQ burned in Crimea?

Arrested. :(

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1710254117111636168

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1710254117111636168

[NutLoose]

More on movement at the front.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1710219495820710076

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1710219495820710076

[NutLoose]

That's an impressive bit of new kit supplied to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1710180838799974791

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1710180838799974791

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian resistance at work near Kerch.

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1710172838160744802

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1710172838160744802

[NutLoose]

https://noelreports.com/

[Sue Vêtements]

Talking about shell production and availability, here's an interesting and informative video about the manufacture of 3" AA shells in WWII

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPGqLjnNIJY


It's another Periscope video, which I believe are an attempt to preserve old training and informational films that would otherwise be lost. There are some very interesting ones on yt, even (dare I say it) aviation related!

[Pali]

Brining home the tragedy of those 51 killed in the Islander attack, this is far more powerful than simple words... :(



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710025929743847828

Just a side note, the name of village Hroza would mean "horror" in Slovak language...

What I don't understand if Russian don't get that you can't subdue a nation with terrorist attacks regardless how horrible they are. On contrary it may even motivate defending party to fight harder.

We can argue that Russia is wasting their missiles for targets without military value while Ukraine is hitting Russian forces hard. Long term statistics show that Russia went from 70.000 shells daily to less then 10.000 and Ukraine is currently doing more than that not to speak about accuracy. As retired general Hodges said you can defeat quantity with precision and that seems to be happening these days. Even Russian propagandist Alexander Kots says how deadly ZSU is. Russians are bleeding heavily to hold the lines.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1709260143488053303

[NutLoose]

One problem though is in part, that Ukraine is doing Russias job for them, in destroying buildings, bridges, road and rail on Ukraine's occupied territory.

[Tartiflette Fan]

]I am just trying to get across that what is put out in the press and as military capabilities are often not the truth,[/b] you do NOT give out to the opposition your true capabilities. To do so would be madness, so you massage the figures to play down the range etc..


So why then are you making such a big thing of the Tauraus supposed range of 500 km ?

[NutLoose]

Drop it, I give up, I was just saying the original Storm Shadow "published range" on the web was less that the "published range" of the Taurus on the web, but do not believe either because what it tells you on the web about military equipment capabilities, will not "normally" be correct.
Though the fact they put out a longer range for the Taurus infers it has, even if those figures are incorrect in reality....

No more replies from me to this.

[antheads]

I GLSDB should arrive this month. This will immediately transform the achievable ranges of rocket artillery from 90 km ( HIMARS ) to 150 km and the missile will be availablke in very large quatities at a low-price because it is made up of two existing components.

That's right, it was always Sep/Oct 2023 when the production would ramp up on GLSDB. Boeing and Saab. I'm sure they can maintain a pretty high production rate. Half the range of ATACMS at the tenth/twentieth++ of the cost.

[SLXOwft]

Without wanting to reignite the discussion and while agreeing with Nutty that published range figures will be intended to deceive, in the days when the RAF website had equipment pages it stated the SS range as 350nm+, one assumes that Ukraine has received the UK version not the shorter range export version (range >250km as per MBDA). If the old RAF figure was truish then at 350nm+ Storm Shadow has a longer published range than the KEPD 350 as 550km = c.295nm:)

It does seem slightly odd that MBDA markets two missiles with much the same role and performance, but unlike the KEPD 350 which has a US engine (a turbofan not a turbojet like SS) and I assume that on its aquisition of LFK/MBDA Deutschland it made no sense for MBDA to bin either establishe product.

[MPN11]

Without wanting to reignite the discussion ... you just did. :*

Can we just, please, move on to current events?

[rigpiggy]

Talking about shell production and availability, here's an interesting and informative video about the manufacture of 3" AA shells in WWII

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPGqLjnNIJY


It's another Periscope video, which I believe are an attempt to preserve old training and informational films that would otherwise be lost. There are some very interesting ones on yt, even (dare I say it) aviation related!
British pathe is another good vintage channel

[rigpiggy]

One problem though is in part, that Ukraine is doing Russias job for them, in destroying buildings, bridges, road and rail on Ukraine's occupied territory.

Buildings and infrastructure can be replaced, if you have the people to rebuild. Expect that when this is over the Ukraine e will have a mini baby boom

[meleagertoo]

Buildings and infrastructure can be replaced, if you have the people to rebuild. Expect that when this is over the Ukraine e will have a mini baby boom
Sadly when this is over Ukraine is going to be suffering a serious shortage of breeding-aged men to enable that.

I can't help but feel an ever increasing feeling of despondency over the outcome of this business as the year slips away.

Ukraine has so far not achieved its much hoped for breakthrough and instead has been quite effectively mired on Ruzzian layered defences regardless very limited and local gains.
Unless a miracle occurs before winter conditions set in the lines will be pretty much frozen where they are and Ruzzia gets a second chance to deploy its unlimited resources of mines, dragon's teeth and trenches over several months on a completely new and greatly improved defence structure, when Ukraine, ever more depleted in men and munitions will find it has an even greater hill to climb come springtime than last winter's defences.
I just don't see how they can carry this on next year.
The West's dilatory and cowardly reluctance to supply the weaponry needed has played a big part in this.

Are we really setting ourselves up to let Putain annexe and keep the Eastern part of Ukraine just as we let him steal Crimea? Why? What's the point of trying half-heartedly and fulilely, yet at vast and self-damaging expence to confront this aggression when China is watching, and judging a similarly half-hearted response to their planned assault on Taiwan? Or Kim Fat Wun's ambitions on S Korea?

If the West doesn't man up to this sort of thuggery and deal with it decisively it's going to result in further copycat actions all over the place, secure in the knowlege that the West has simply lost its balls...
Because then the East will simply have the West by the balls...

[Setright]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.

[Gargleblaster]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.
Interesting, please elaborate on why you think so !

[jolihokistix]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.

…and the Pope will convert to Russian Orthodox.

[GeeRam]

Sadly when this is over Ukraine is going to be suffering a serious shortage of breeding-aged men to enable that.

If it drags on a long time it might......given that, prior to it starting, I think there were more women than men in that 20-35 breeding age group as it was from those demographic charts produced. I think Russia had the same issue, a greater percentage of women to men in same age demographic prior to start of war.

[[email protected]]

and the Pope will convert to Russian Orthodox. And bears will be toilet trained...........

[tdracer]

If it drags on a long time it might......given that, prior to it starting, I think there were more women than men in that 20-35 breeding age group as it was from those demographic charts produced. I think Russia had the same issue, a greater percentage of women to men in same age demographic prior to start of war.
I think they had the solution to this at the end of "Dr. Strangelove".
Of course, it would mean abandonment of the "Traditional Monogamous Relationship".:rolleyes:

[Xeptu]

I think that Russia holding out for a few years is just dreaming. It is militarily depleted and it's economy tanked, all that is only going to get worse not better. I believe winter will make that become crystal clear. Once Russia's oil production goes offline it is over.
Yes Putin could go nuclear but if he does and there are survivors, Russia won't be one of them. This war has only one outcome, Moscow will become a hermit kingdom like North Korea and the rest of Russia will break apart and re-establish itself the same as Ukraine and the rest of former soviet union states.

[fdr]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.
Really? On what basis do you base that assertion?

You have access to this marvellous invention called, "the internet"?

If so, check out the last US HoR vote on appropriations for support to Ukraine. H.R. 5692 Ukraine Security Assistance and Oversight Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024. The vote was 311:117 in favour.

Last time I checked, that is 3/4s or a similar fraction, but, I will defer to your defeatist opinion should you be able to show exemplars of a loss of resolve by the USA to supporting Ukraine.

The EU, Hungary has been silent in it's opinion, the Slovakian change of Govt is doing what exactly to harm Ukraine?

[nonsense]

Sadly when this is over Ukraine is going to be suffering a serious shortage of breeding-aged men to enable that.

Over a hundred years after the first world war many of us are old enough to remember our spinster great aunts and other elderly single women who outnumbered the remaining men of their generation by around 15-20%. I had two spinster aunts on one side and my grandmother on the other side emigrated from London to New Zealand after the war to improve her options.

Singled Out ? Virginia Nicholson (http://www.virginianicholson.co.uk/singled-out)

[NutLoose]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.

I doubt even if defeated, would they capitulate? there is enough weaponry in country for them to carry on a partisan war for years, and Russia, one would doubt, have the military manpower to leave a credible sized force in Ukraine to hold it securely, what would you need, 500,000? More?
.
The talk of forced relocation of Ukrainians to the likes of Siberia would create its own problems too.

This war, regardless of everything else, is a Russian war of old men, men who remember a time of ultimate power and the USSR.

But even amongst them the Oligarchs whose wealth is derived from Russia “fled” in droves to the west to enjoy the freedom and lifestyle Russia could never offer them, they must be wanting a return to the lifestyle the west offers.


The clock is ticking on their time on this world and one believes the youth of Russia, or what’s left of it, have had 30 years of peace, prosperity and westernisation, the longer it goes on the less they will have of those Western goods they cherish, true they will still be available to the few, but the majority will be priced out of the market and wish for a return of what they once had, which in their cases was not Communism, but westernisation.

Just like nazism in Germany, time is a great healer and the generations that were fervent nazis are dying out and the country has changed.

Yes, you will get the odd fringe movement, you get that in all walks of life, but the Third Reich and all of its baggage tends to have been eradicated.

So one hopes with time the same happens in Russia as the older population dies off.

One should never look back for a better life, but forward..


​​​​​….

[RatherBeFlying]

The Ukrainians fully understand that Putin's aim is their extermination followed by repopulation by Ruzzians. The West has given them the option of standing up to Putin, something that did not happen when the Bolsheviks rolled into present day Ukraine, previously divided between Austria-Hungary and Russia.
​​​​​
Like WWI, static warfare could continue for some years.
​​​​

[GlobalNav]

I doubt even if defeated, would they capitulate? there is enough weaponry in country for them to carry on a partisan war for years, and Russia, one would doubt, have the military manpower to leave a credible sized force in Ukraine to hold it securely, what would you need, 500,000? More?
.
The talk of forced relocation of Ukrainians to the likes of Siberia would create its own problems too.

This war, regardless of everything else, is a Russian war of old men, men who remember a time of ultimate power and the USSR.

But even amongst them the Oligarchs whose wealth is derived from Russia “fled” in droves to the west to enjoy the freedom and lifestyle Russia could never offer them, they must be wanting a return to the lifestyle the west offers.


The clock is ticking on their time on this world and one believes the youth of Russia, or what’s left of it, have had 30 years of peace, prosperity and westernisation, the longer it goes on the less they will have of those Western goods they cherish, true they will still be available to the few, but the majority will be priced out of the market and wish for a return of what they once had, which in their cases was not Communism, but westernisation.

Just like nazism in Germany, time is a great healer and the generations that were fervent nazis are dying out and the country has changed.

Yes, you will get the odd fringe movement, you get that in all walks of life, but the Third Reich and all of its baggage tends to have been eradicated.

So one hopes with time the same happens in Russia as the older population dies off.

One should never look back for a better life, but forward..


​​​​​….
Not discounting the support the west has already provided Ukraine, we need to face up to the fact that the status quo is unacceptable.

It's time to begin decisive steps to bring this war to an end as soon as possible.
This is necessary to end the suffering and killing of all involved.
It is necessary because, as many have already said, Putin must never be allowed to gain a thing for Russia or himself and know he will be made accountable.
It is necessary because the west has neither inexhaustible resources nor inexhaustible will to continue supporting Ukraine (I hate to say it).

The west must get this thing over as soon as possible, it's that simple (but not easy). But, letting this go on and on is even harder.

The west must unite, and exercise both leadership and commitment.

[Sfojimbo]

It's time to begin decisive steps to bring this war to an end as soon as possible..................

The opposite side of this coin was given by Uberteknik who in post #5683 above stated succinctly what I see as the true situation the west faces:

Accelerating the war to that end by swiftly ramping up military supplies to produce a decisive routing of the occupation may catalyze desperation within the Kremlin. Regime collapse is, imho, unlikely since the narrative pursued by the Kremlin is firmly accepted by the Russian populace and therefore any existential threat will come with it the acceptance of nuclear use as unavoidable.- as the least worst outcome.

It is therefore logical and necessary to erode Russian occupation to a point where they are forced into an untenable position but not so fast to conclude the nuclear option as the only way out.

Personally, I believe before this is over we are going to see at least one tactical nuke used by Russia. We will be very lucky if I am wrong on this IMO.

[Low average]

We shouldn't expect the Russians to stop fighting. Like Nazi Germany, Putin has absolute power over what information ordinary Russians receive. They are dying in droves, but casualty figures are banned - only Ukranian deaths are reported. Everything Putin does is good, everything Ukraine does is bad. Anyone who dissents in Russia is jailed.

Putin is also banning VPNs - this will soon shut the population off from any available truth completely and forever. Time is ticking.

This all means that Putin can, and will, sacrifice great numbers of his young men without any personal consequence - a big difference between him and free world leaders.

So what does it look like to ordinary Russians? Well, the farmer who had 2 goats now only has one and, mysteriously, his son who joined the Army hasn't returned and nobody knows where he is. Bread is getting expensive too...

However, Putin's media is full of fake economic good news and no Russian casualties are acknowledged. They are helpless as lambs to the slaughter, and will continue to be so indefinitely,

At least the World is now aware of what Russia really is, and many Nations are safer for that knowledge. Thanks Ukraine, other civilised nations and NATO - keep up the pressure.

[NutLoose]

The opposite side of this coin was given by Uberteknik who in post #5683 above stated succinctly what I see as the true situation the west faces:



Personally, I believe before this is over we are going to see at least one tactical nuke used by Russia. We will be very lucky if I am wrong on this IMO.

I somehow doubt the use of nuclear weapons come in single packages and “Tactical nukes” are simply words banded about to make it sound that dropping a bucket of instant sunshine on some one is okay as it’s only a little one.

It isn’t, a nuke, Is a nuke, Is a nuke….. one hopes the West has had the balls in no uncertain terms to tell Moscow, one nuke and Moscow is a smouldering glow in the dark hole.

That HAS TO BE the response, because if you do not respond then the Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and tinpot dictators the world over may gamble on dropping one in the belief there will not be a response.

[Sfojimbo]

I see a great difference between a nuke or two decapitating the head of an armored column and a nuke on London, Berlin or New York. Tactical is tactical and strategic is strategic there is a great difference.

I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.

They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.

[John Marsh]

I see a great difference between a nuke or two decapitating the head of an armored column and a nuke on London, Berlin or New York. Tactical is tactical and strategic is strategic there is a great difference.

I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.

They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.
It's a realistic scenario; one which has been thoroughly wargamed in Washington, I expect. This raises the question of how rapidly a NATO force could be assembled and deployed. Not to forget: how the justification for NATO's action would be formulated, given that Ukraine is not a member.

What might be the 'wiggle room' in which Putin would be minded to concede defeat, yet without believing he has nothing left to lose? He wishes to re-establish the old Soviet Empire, if I understand correctly. He has set himself up as the warrior facing the twin evils of Ukraine and NATO. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.

[Sfojimbo]

It's a realistic scenario; one which has been thoroughly wargamed in Washington, I expect. This raises the question of how rapidly a NATO force could be assembled and deployed. Not to forget: how the justification for NATO's action would be formulated, given that Ukraine is not a member.

What might be the 'wiggle room' in which Putin would be minded to concede defeat, yet without believing he has nothing left to lose? He wishes to re-establish the old Soviet Empire, if I understand correctly. He has set himself up as the warrior facing the twin evils of Ukraine and NATO. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.It's also been war gamed in Brussels too, we can be sure of that. The response has already been agreed upon for most scenarios I'm sure.
As far as assembling the force, it's already there. There are F-35s in Romania and Poland for sure, there have been F-22s in Romania, I don't know if they are still there. NATO could begin reducing Russia's air defenses in Ukraine within a few hours if desired.
Russia has already been warned that they will receive a vigorous response if they use nukes.

IMO
Putin wants to bluff his way into re-creating the 21st century version of the SU, he believes the west has weak knees and will be cowed by a minor nuke demonstration. But The Russians can war game things too. They can see the weak position they would be in if the west didn't fold. Under air attack from NATO, Putin would withdraw from Ukraine and tell the Russian people that he has saved the world from nuclear armageddon, and they would believe him.

[Less Hair]

He will wait out the US elections and hope for chaos.

[NutLoose]

A nuke no matter what you call it does not respect international borders, drop one and everyone gets a piece of the fall out.

it is no good saying, but they only dropped it on Ukraine when your hair is falling out in Poland, Hungary, Germany,. Chernobyl showed that.

Drop it in the south of the country and the world starve’s.

Saying if he drops one NATO will unleash the airforce etc, then what, he has already settled his conscience to the fact he has used one, why not use another to thwart NATOs AirPower… and another and another…

Hence why I believe the only response is for him to see key cities in his country glowing in reprisal and that’s from a person the believes the world should get rid of them all, no one wins..

​​​​​​…

[ORAC]

https://x.com/blocksixtynine/status/1710249879392710673?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


480th FS F-16 pilot sporting a Ghost of Kyiv patch that reads ВіРИТИ (Believe). This is particularly symbolic because the squadron is currently deployed and flying combat air patrols along the eastern flank.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/684x683/image_38ea752062c7ac4c557f166cf89ab3f7cb19c79a.png


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/683x683/image_9a581c0818e49d4f22ff01167bc2c8e44b72e6bb.png
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[Uberteknik]

I am just trying to get across that what is put out in the press and as military capabilities are often not the truth, you do NOT give out to the opposition your true capabilities. To do so would be madness, so you massage the figures to play down the range etc..

If as an example you put out your new super fighter had a max altitude of 56 thousand feet, then the other side would build a missile to intercept that, but if in reality the aircrafts max altitude is 66 thousand then it is ineffective.
Exactly this ^^.

I'd also add (insider knowledge) that range specifications are highly dependent on launch conditions with a wide variation e.g. launch altitude, release speed, air temperature, air pressure, humidity etc. The target geodesic range is obviously not the same as flight path when waypoints are included.

All this to say the maximum flight distance is always an understatement for Western manufactured kit. The opposite tends to be true for Russian kit where specifications are quoted under best possible conditions and wholly unrealistic under true operational environments.

Which is why it's always suspect when someone pushes for critical weapon specifications and demands reliable sources. Rather like the 1982 incident where the BBC unforgivably reported Argentinian bomb fuzes were set incorrectly thus accounting for their high failure to detonate on striking Royal Navy ships. Sir Galahad and Sir Tristan with others paid the price.

[ORAC]

it is no good saying, but they only dropped it on Ukraine when your hair is falling out in Poland, Hungary, Germany,. Chernobyl showed that.
No, or minimal, fallout from an air burst.

​​​​​​​

[henra]

Buster15, and in addition to your final outcome, the west pays the price some years down the line when Russia (now full of confidence) decide on a Special Operation to free western Europe!

You are a too firm believer in the Russian state propaganda.
The Russian top brass may be corrupt but they are not complete idiots. The drip feeding (yes I would love to see a bit more enthusiastic deliveries here, there are close to 5000 Abrams idling towards their retirement somewhere in the US) by NATO countires of surplus of it's weakest area (Ground Forces, Arty) is (even without supporting/protecting Air Power) sufficient to slowly repell the by far strongest part of the Russian Military (Ground Forces, Arty). NATO's strong area is overwhelming Air Power and this hasn't even been part of the War in Ukraine. (Reminds me of: "We are fighting against Ukraine an the whole NATO and have lost 200 thousand men. And NATO? NATO hasn't yet arrived...")
Herein lies a message.
Yes the Media Dumb Heads and possibly a sizeable portion of the Russian populace may not understand this. But you can be sure the Top Brass of the Russian Military very clearly understands this. You can also be sure that if they had known what they know now, they would have never started this war.

Don't get me wrong: We should continue and increase the military support of Ukraine. We should do so because of all the atrocities, the Russians are committing. And to send a signal to all countries considering the same. But we shouldn't create 'fake-' scenarios for that. (Media is trying this all too often and often causing the exact opposite result to what they want to achieve) When people get the feeling it's faked (and counting 1 + 1 will lead them to this conclusion) it will be detrimental to the cause. People don't like to feel being considered idiots.

[henra]

Saying if he drops one NATO will unleash the airforce etc, then what, he has already settled his conscience to the fact he has used one, why not use another to thwart NATOs AirPower… and another and another…
​​​​​​…
???
How do you thwart whole NATO Air Power with a nuke? And with which carrier system do you want to achieve that? You can easily wipe out a city like Kiev. But in order to reach for instance Ramstein (and this wouldn't even thwart NATO Air Power, there is still for example the big docked Aircraft carrier HMS UK or its sister ships Spain and France) ballistic Iskanders won't be able to reach it. A Cruise Missile chuggin along merrily for close to one and a half hours over 1000km of NATO territory without being shot down? Ain't gonn'a happen. Only realistic option: ICBM with MIRV.
Can we please refrain from such blatant oversimplified phrases/scenarios. Don't consider your opponent to stoopid. They make mistakes. They make errors in judgement. They may be incompletely/ill informed. Still doesn't mean they are all out idiots. As*holes maybe but not idiots.

[meleagertoo]

Nutty, none of your arguments recognise the fact that nucs on Ukranian territory cannot provoke any sort of retaliatory military reaction from NATO as its charter specifically prevents that. And as ORAC pointed out, the radiation argument is fairly easily circumvented too, and pretty insignificant with small numbers of tactical warheads in any case.
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?

[ACW342]

Nutty, none of your arguments recognise the fact that nucs on Ukranian territory cannot provoke any sort of retaliatory military reaction from NATO as its charter specifically prevents that. And as ORAC pointed out, the radiation argument is fairly easily circumvented too, and pretty insignificant with small numbers of tactical warheads in any case.
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?

When the little "Green Men" started to arrive in Ukraine at the start of the Russian festered uprisings in the Donbas etc, there was no great world wide condemnation of Russia. IF they were actually RF military personnel they were there whilst on vacation it was said. (They must have used their tanks etc to get there rather than tourist class tickets on the railway) I see no problems with the sudden arrival of LOTS of little green blue men in flying suits adorned with Ukrainian Air Force badges suddenly arriving in Ukraine. They would, of course, have to use their fully laden aeroplanes to get there for, as we all know, tourist class tickets are no longer available. (Geese and Ganders come to mind). Destruction of RF forces in Ukraine could then be completed

A342

[wondering]

Buster15, and in addition to your final outcome, the west pays the price some years down the line when Russia (now full of confidence) decide on a Special Operation to free western Europe!

My only conclusion is that Russia MUST be defeated NOW at whatever costs. If the west weakens their resolve now, they will suffer a worse fate later!

The post WW2 order would unravel should Russia be victorious. Taiwan would be the next logical target. I don't think most Western politicians understand the longterm consequences.

Unfortunately, the US strained its resources in its forever wars in the Middle East too much. How many trillions were spend on them?

Russia is obviously playing for time. And it vastly outnumbers Ukraine in manpower.

[fdr]

. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.

Don't forget the cyanide pill too.

[[email protected]]

Do we think the Hamas attack on Israel is partly a tactic to divert US attention from Ukraine? Sponsored by Syria under pressure from Putrid?

[fdr]

No, or minimal, fallout from an air burst.




But ORAC, old matey, what exactly that the Ruzzians have done in the last 18 months or in fact last 8 years suggests that any system they maintain will work as advertised? Flicking the off switch to on with a bright light bucket is as likely to end up with burnt eyebrows... Ruzzia's competency gives wings to the creative artists of Wile E Coyote.



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1471/picture_1_b544e50ae919f6e4c951c3c15cb6df87bf305a65.jpg

[RatherBeFlying]

This all means that Putin can, and will, sacrifice great numbers of his young men without any personal consequence - a big difference between him and free world leaders. The manpower losses are heavily biased towards minority regions of Russia. There was a story that two Chukchi (Siberian Inuit) took to an outboard to escape to the US. The local Inuit welcomed them, but US CBP apprehended them.

[Pali]

Nutty, none of your arguments recognise the fact that nucs on Ukranian territory cannot provoke any sort of retaliatory military reaction from NATO as its charter specifically prevents that.

Wait a minute, we remember Operation Allied Force (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia) and it was a NATO intervention which ended a series of wars in which Serbia killed already 84.000+ people including Srebrenica Massacre.
Western powers granted Ukraine security in exchange for giving up nukes in Budapest Accords and we may believe that using tactical nuclear warhead by Russians would trigger NATO taking over skies of Ukraine and acquiring utter air superiority.

Would we risk WW3? Yes. But would it be necessary? Yes.

[antheads]

All this talk that russia is a great power and that they will threaten Georgia, Finland, Poland and the Baltics is complete BS. They have been proven to be the third worst army in the third world. The joke is, somehow if they win or get a land for peace deal. That will result in the big bad bear coming back. That's a laugh guv. Worry about China first.

Do we want a five year war? February 2024, 2nd anniversary, I said till end of year then negotiations, but let's wait till then.

[Sallyann1234]

All this talk that russia is a great power and that they will threaten Georgia, Finland and the Baltics is complete BS. They have been proven to be the third worst army in the third world. The joke is, somehow if they win or get a land for peace deal will result in the big bad bear coming back is a laugh guv. Worry about China first.
China is NOT threatening invasion of Europe.

[fdr]

All this talk that russia is a great power and that they will threaten Georgia, Finland and the Baltics is complete BS. They have been proven to be the third worst army in the third world. The joke is, somehow if they win or get a land for peace deal will result in the big bad bear coming back is a laugh guv. Worry about China first.

Do we want a five year war? February 2024, 2nd anniversary, I said till end of year then negotiations, but let's wait till then.

maybe, but it comes directly from the lips of the Russian leaders over the last 6 months, so perhaps you can discuss that with them directly.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1710253015226065014?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Security Service of Ukraine has detained a Russian special services officer after luring him out of the territory of occupied Transnistria.

On the instructions of the FSB, he was trying to create an agent network in Ukraine by recruiting residents of Odesa region.

As a result of a special operation, the enemy agent was lured to the territory of Ukraine, where he was detained.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x808/image_40b1bf70ca88e354c433dba179831d3fbf3346b2.png
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[antheads]

maybe, but it comes directly from the lips of the Russian leaders over the last 6 months, so perhaps you can discuss that with them directly.
You really think they have the balls to do that to NATO countries? As opposed to Ukraine, which they see as their backyard? ie red line, their people etc etc

[antheads]

Let's play a game. Just imagine if China was arming Mexico to the hilt. And Mexico said we want our Texas Californian lands back. It's our historical land after all. Or perhaps they never had it, and they crazy? How do u think USA would react? ie China right on our border.

[ORAC]

Just to provide a link to the current attack in Israel.

Large Hamas delegations visited Moscow earlier this year and promised to help widen the conflict, in the current attack the6 are using drones t9 carry out attacks on Israel8 tanks.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230316-hamas-sent-high-level-delegation-to-moscow-at-russias-invitation/

There is only one nation, apart from Ukraine, with the combat pro end drones to carry out these attacks - and t9 provide either the operators and/or training.

https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1710592188415975760?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://x.com/popularfront_/status/1710614292234424680?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
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