Ukraine War Thread Part 2 [Archive] - Page 12

Winemaker

13th Jul 2023, 00:13

A little more detail. From the New York Times (free viewing for a quite a few articles and, IMHO, well worth the subscripton) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/world/europe/sergei-surovikin-russian-general-missing.html
One top commander has disappeared since a mutiny. Another was killed in an airstrike in Ukraine. Another accused his leadership of treachery after being fired. And a fourth former commander was gunned down while out on a jog in what may have been an organized hit.

The ranks of the Russian military have continued to be roiled by instability in the days since a short-lived insurrection by Wagner mercenaries three weeks ago, as pressures from Moscow’s nearly 17-month war reverberate across the armed forces.

On Wednesday, mystery deepened over the fate of Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the country’s former top commander in Ukraine, who has been dubbed “General Armageddon” for his ruthless tactics, and who has not been seen since the Wagner rebellion.

One of the country’s top lawmakers said, when pressed by a reporter, that the general was “taking a rest.”

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 04:52

Very reasonable comment as I see it.. If Zelensky is always going to scream " Not Enough " every time, then it's the kid crying wolf. Zelensky has made himself a very big media figure, but needs to understand that that is not always the best way to achieve his objectives.

Bravo to Ben Wallace for having slapped him in the chops.

I did find some of the comments I read from him regards the lack of ascension to NATO off putting, that is probably what was being referred too. I still believe long range weapons are what is needed, obliterate the Kerch bridge, and the rail entry points and bridges feeding into the Donbass from Russia and the war is won, as the re-supply routes are gone, also hit the port facilities in Mariupol and Sevestapol to reinforce that

Ukraine's president came to Vilnius, Lithuania, with high expectations.

He was looking for an assurance that his country would join Nato after the war with Russia was over. He wanted membership of the world's most powerful military alliance to be a beacon of hope for his people, the ultimate peace dividend that could ensure that never again would Russian troops despoil the Ukrainian homeland.

Instead, Mr Zelensky was simply told Ukraine would be invited to become a member "when allies agree and conditions are met". So far, so noncommittal.

Not surprisingly Ukraine's president hit the roof, saying it was "absurd" for Nato leaders not to give even so much as a timetable. The conditions, he said, were "vague".

And he was furious at the idea that somehow Ukraine's membership of Nato would somehow be a bargaining chip for post-war negotiations with Russia.

But once President Zelensky met Nato leaders face-to-face, the diplomatic dust settled. They fell over themselves on Wednesday to assure him that things had changed, that Ukraine would join Nato.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66183066
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Sfojimbo

13th Jul 2023, 05:11

I did find some of the comments I read from him regards the lack of ascension to NATO off puttingMy theory is that he was just acting upset.
I think he was trying to get as much as he could from the NATO crowd, there will probably never be a better time to twist their arms and extract promises from them.
Later, after the war is over, their attention may fade.

Not everything is always as it seems.

Less Hair

13th Jul 2023, 05:33

talby33

13th Jul 2023, 06:11

What exactly were they, and how are they applicable today ?
The Budapest Memorandum was covered quite a lot on here at the start but I don't recall it having an "expiry" date. I don't find it acceptable that a man sitting a long way from the war zone should publicly criticise the leader of a country fighting for its very existence (and trivialise it by using Amazon) against a much larger agressor, I'm sure it gives comfort to the Russians to see some "cracks" in the allies. I suspect though that this is getting off topic. Slava Ukraini.

cliver029

13th Jul 2023, 06:53

Sfojimbo

13th Jul 2023, 07:12

I suspect that a lot of the rhetoric was for domestic consumption
He did get 'security guarantees', as far as I can see these guarantees haven't been made public.
I suspect he got something he considers important.

Low average

13th Jul 2023, 07:16

I feel for the guy, he's a different breed to any politician I've ever seen. Didn't flee in the face of immense personal threat, while facing a vast information warfare capability that seeks to label him a Nazi, destroy his image and undermine him at every possible opportunity. He was, and is a catastrophe for Russia.

Make no mistake, Russian media are amplifying any hint of disagreement, they desperately need to destroy this brave and honorable soul.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 07:19

Kyiv has been getting hammered throughout the conference - which might have contributed to his mood…

”Suspilne, Ukraine's state broadcaster, has an update on the damage in Kyiv after yet another night where Russia has struck at Ukraine’s capital – the third night in a row. It reports:

Air defence during the night shot down all 20 “Shahed” drones and two Kalibr missiles. The consequences of the launch of the Iskander-M ballistic missile are being clarified….

At night, the Russian army attacked Antonivka and Kherson. Over the past day, three people were killed and two were injured in the Kherson region. Eight people were injured in Donetsk region, one in Kharkiv region.

The number of people injured due to the fall of an explosive object in Zaporizhzhia on 12 July increased to 21 people, including eight children.”…..

Expatrick

13th Jul 2023, 07:28

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 07:41

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679390418772045824?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Rostec, Russian state-owned defense conglomerate headquartered in Moscow has banned the use of Apple iPhones, devices, and computers for all of its 450,000 employees for security reasons.

The state military-industrial behemoth has about 800 enterprises under the umbrella.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 07:45

"How soon after the war would you like Ukraine to become a member of NATO?", a journalist asked President Biden at a meeting with Zelensky.

"One hour and 20 minutes", the US president replied….

Spunky Monkey

13th Jul 2023, 07:54

Not sure why Zelensky needs to be overly polite.
He knows the clock is ticking with its major supporter the US.
Biden is getting more confused by the day and the thought of him running again is ludicrous and just as ludicrous is that he is the best the Democrats can field. (So who is really running the show in the background)?
The Ukrainians are worried that the Orange Blowhard may get back in and as he put it, will sort out the problem in Ukraine in a day.

Wallace is miffed that the US won't give him the NATO job and so is playing up to the US.

As for the Ukrainians, they know that without a breakthrough they could be fighting in a third winter with the US election looming.
They know they can't just do a Blitzkrieg Banzai charge at the Russian lines in one area as the losses will be too great at home and in the international media.
The only hope they now have is to pull the Russian reserves and attention hither and thither, taking out troop concentrations, command and transport nodes.
They are painfully aware that the UK and others have so badly invested in their defence that we are running out of supplies.

The only upside is the Russians are infighting and that they did such a stupid assault on Kiev in the first weeks, that they lost a great deal of their trained troops and equipment.

The Ukrainians don't have time on their side.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 08:13

👀👀👀😂😂

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1679393748160069632?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Fascinating geopolitical analysis from Russian propagandists: China exists only due to Russia and Russia is China's largest and post powerful guard from all dangers.

Even Skabeyeva is skeptical.

Herod

13th Jul 2023, 08:57

👀👀👀😂😂

Fascinating geopolitical analysis from Russian propagandists: China exists only due to Russia and Russia is China's largest and post powerful guard from all dangers.

Even Skabeyeva is skeptical.

I didn't realise that it was only Russia's "winning" in Ukraine that was preventing the USA from attacking China. Must get up to speed on my geopolitics. :ugh:

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 10:21

As a note, the first batch of Abrams has already arrived in Poland…

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679213351811837960?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Witold Waszczykowski, Poland’s Foreign Minister between 2015-2018, has stated that Poland should send all its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as Germany is too unreliable when it comes to providing spare parts and repairs for the tanks.

Poland has 236 Leopard tanks left.

Poland wouldn’t be able to send all the tanks immediately, but will have to wait for the delivery of 366 Abrams tanks from the U.S. and 180 K2 tanks from South Korea….

Poland could be able to send more Leopard tanks to Ukraine in batches as the American and South Korean tanks start arriving in Poland in large numbers.

Polish military experts have stated that Poland long-term goal is to get rid of the Leos in order to operate just 2 MBTs.

Wokkafans

13th Jul 2023, 10:28

Ukrainian Leopard 2a6 survives 2 ATGM hits before deploying smoke cover. Zaporozhye direction, July 2023

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ydabt/ukrainian_leopard_2a6_survives_2_atgm_hits_before/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Interview (in German) with the crew after showing damage to the tank.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/video246274778/Ukraine-Krieg-Exklusiv-WELT-Reporterin-bei-Leopard-2-Panzer-nahe-der-Front.html

anxiao

13th Jul 2023, 11:16

Reddit has a registration wall, so link is only for Reddit subscribers.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 11:50

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1679427187097624578?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

State of the Russian army.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has sent a weapons batch to mobilized in the Luhansk region. Weapons such as PPS submachine guns, PPSh-41, SKS Karabin and other pre-WW2 weaponry can be seen

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 11:52

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1679456114205683712?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Ukraine has already received cluster munitions from the USA.

The commander of the Tavria direction:

"We just got them, haven't used them yet, but they can make a big difference on the battlefield."

t43562

13th Jul 2023, 12:15

NATO members have a duty of assistance to every member under attack. Making Ukraine a member now, during a war, would move NATO into full war with Russia. This is why everybody knew that any formal invitation would be impossible until after this war has ended.

I fully accept this reason ... but.... it smells of fear a bit. On the day after Ukraine gets NATO membership would we then happily respond to a drone or missile attack differently from how we do now?

Less Hair

13th Jul 2023, 12:19

It would make quite a difference as this would be an attack on common NATO territory, triggering a common response. Exactly this is how current diplomatic warnings concerning possible attacks on the Baltic States have been worded.

Lonewolf_50

13th Jul 2023, 12:25

Handelsblatt reports that German government has decided to terminate its agreement with Poland to set up a repair center for damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks in the country.

The German side argues that the Polish price demands were too high. How typical of Germany, to find yet another excuse not to help. That's been their pattern for about a year and a half.
(On the other hand, their taking in of Ukrainian refugees earns a "well done!").
Ben Wallace being remarkably undiplomatic….
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-not-an-amazon-delivery-service-for-weapons-to-ukraine-says-defence-secretary-ben-wallace-12919765
UK not an Amazon delivery service for weapons to Ukraine, says defence secretary Ben Wallace
The minister said "whether we like it or not people want to see gratitude" for weapons sent to Ukraine, adding that Kyiv needs to "persuade doubting politicians in other countries that you know that it's worth it". I see no problem with Ben voicing that concern. The political bit is very important if you rely on other nations for your security, and as we see from the Poland/Germany above, it doesn't take much for it to go a little pear shaped. Winning the information war/salesmanship war, is a key to Zelensky's success, so far. No time to rest on one's laurels.
From the NY Times today:
RIP General :E I guess that old general didn't just fade away ... (obscure reference to remarks by General Douglas MacArthur).

Less Hair

13th Jul 2023, 12:37

How typical of Germany, to find yet another excuse not to help. That's been their pattern for about a year and a half.

They just move the factory to Lithuania instead of Poland.

Lonewolf_50

13th Jul 2023, 12:40

SPIEGEL has obtained the final paragraph of the draft of NATO's final declaration:
It states that Ukraine can be invited to the Alliance if all members agree that the conditions for this have been met.… As was the case with previous aspirants going back to Poland, Czech Republic, et al.
Not surprisingly Ukraine's president hit the roof, saying it was "absurd" for Nato leaders not to give even so much as a timetable. The conditions, he said, were "vague".
Welcome to NATO, bitch. :p Vague and nearly Byzantine in its inner workings, NATO is. Get used to it.
"We reiterated that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and agreed to cancel the requirements for an action plan for membership in the alliance. This will change the path for Ukraine to join NATO, instead of a two-stage process, it will be a one-stage process," Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Vilnius.
According to Stoltenberg, the NATO summit also agreed on the establishment of a Ukraine-NATO council, as well as a multi-year support program aimed at bringing the Ukrainian Armed Forces up to NATO standards. Which needs to be done before entry, as had been done with others ... but I am confident that it will get done. The Germans need another buffer state to protect themselves from the Russians. :p
Ivan Popov, the major general (chief) of the 58th Russian army, which is now fighting in the southern part of occupied Ukraine, has resigned and recorded a very interesting audio message. His resignation allows him to practice for the 2024 Russian Olympic Window Diving Team. :E

Lonewolf_50

13th Jul 2023, 12:41

They just move the factory to Lithuania instead of Poland. Because the Germans got a better burdened hour labor rate, or because the Germans still see the Poles as Untermensch? :p (I am a bit ranty this morning. I've a few friends who are Polish emigres to the US who have a sharp distaste for how Germany treats the Eastern European countries smaller than themselves ...)
The Poles moving their Leopards to Ukraine to make way for Abrams looks like it won't be blocked by the Germans though, right?

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 13:13

Why flat plains are tank country and why air cover is essential.

https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1679449109269184512?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Intense footage of Ukrainian infantry attempting to advance from the settlement of Pyatykhatky towards Zherebyanky on the Zaporizhzhia front, and being pinned down by enemy fire.

The shells are constantly landing around them and Russian aircraft can be heard overhead.

langleybaston

13th Jul 2023, 13:49

How typical of Germany, to find yet another excuse not to help. That's been their pattern for about a year and a half.
(On the other hand, their taking in of Ukrainian refugees earns a "well done!").
I see no problem with Ben voicing that concern. The political bit is very important if you rely on other nations for your security, and as we see from the Poland/Germany above, it doesn't take much for it to go a little pear shaped. Winning the information war/salesmanship war, is a key to Zelensky's success, so far. No time to rest on one's laurels.
I guess that old general didn't just fade away ... (obscure reference to remarks by General Douglas MacArthur).

Or even more obscure to Private Frank Richards, DCM MM 2nd RWF.

GlobalNav

13th Jul 2023, 14:08

I fully accept this reason ... but.... it smells of fear a bit. On the day after Ukraine gets NATO membership would we then happily respond to a drone or missile attack differently from how we do now?

I don’t think we ever go “happily” into war. Hopefully, though, we soberly fulfill our treaty obligations. That’s why we need to be very cautious about the treaty obligations we sign up to. This isn’t cricket, its life and death.
Meanwhile, mostly, we use diplomacy and all other forms of power, including sabre rattling, to gain or keep the peace.

GlobalNav

13th Jul 2023, 14:20

I suspect that a lot of the rhetoric was for domestic consumption, the Ukrainians currently are losing people for a cause and he has to show that he is pushing NATO to provide the wherewithal to help them.

It’s hard to grasp just how much pressure he is under. Courageous UKR lives lost everyday, time running out, the very existence of his country at stake. His use of “rhetoric” and every hard decision he must make is for the sake restoring sovereign peace to the entire country. It may hurt our feelings, but I’m afraid the words “not enough” were the truth. As much as the west has provided, while it is not enough, it has helped to lengthen the conflict. We are probably 18 months late in providing the means to establish air support over the UKR ground forces. Needless time and loss of life is the result.

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 16:29

My worry is we are fast running up to this year’s rainy season.

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 16:56

A Russian POW camp in Ukraine, it looks a well run establishment and unlike the Ukrainians we see released, they are definitely not under nourished.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679263324133834753

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679263324133834753

In case you are wondering, one reply was

got curious... What they got served was rassolnik (a traditional Russian cucumber soup), corn groats with meat, salad (looks like mostly cabbage) and bread which they bake themselves in the camp.

fdr

13th Jul 2023, 17:04

This unjust war perpetrated on all of us by Putin is still ours to lose through indifference to the trials that Ukraine is facing, while they do the bleeding and the dying fighting a criminal despot,

Putin applied terror tactics, and we did stuff all. And then complained about the inconvenience to us of the cost in rotating time limited stocks of munitions, which required replacing anyway,

Putin is not Ukraines enemy only, he is the enemy of the Russian people who have become so insecure they only feel comfortable when someone tells them what they should think and do.

And our unity? Vacillations from NATO partners while other nations clamour to join the defensive pact, a Putin loving leader in Hungary, a dictator in Belarus who is only too happy to be the accomplice to a criminal invasion, permitting an aggressor to use the country he illegally rules to conduct aggressive war from. And in the USA, MAGA continues to raise questions on what is in the cool aide they drink.

Whether Ukraines cries for help are troubling or not is immaterial, the simple fact is, this is a country that is doing the fight against tyranny, doing the hard lift that the rest of the world is only prepared to talk about, not actually do anything about.

Russia has a long history of aggression, wrapped up in the justification that they fear intrusion on their land. They don't see any hypocrisy in their acts against Georgia, Chechnya, Ossetia, Ukraine, they have no feeling of guilt in the attacking of civil airliners, and murdering the citizens of many nations, once again.

Russia = Recidivist

The UN should be tarred and feathered, those countries that bitch about cost and inconvenience, a plague on their houses; the longer this continues to take to remove the aggressor from their land, the more inconvenience it is to the ambivalent bystanders.

Fair weather friends. Ukraine needs all that we can give, just as they did when they pleaded for a no fly zone and we were too timid to do the right thing.

Burke was right, even when misquoted,

“When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
“Thoughts on the Cause of the Present Discontents” (1770)

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 17:25

The latest rumour I’d Prigozhin may already be dead after meeting with Putin, or is in a Gulag.

Russia (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/russia)’s top mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/yevgeny-prigozhin) has probably been murdered after leading a failed rebellion against the Kremlin regime, a former senior US military leader has suggested.

Prigozhin, the Wagner (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/wagner) Group chief, ordered his soldiers to march on Moscow last month amid an ongoing feud with Russia’s top military brass about its strategy in the Ukraine war.

“I personally don’t think he is, and if he is, he’s in a prison somewhere,” Robert Abrams, a retired general, told ABC News when asked if he thought the warlord was alive.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/prigozhin-dead-jail-us-commander-b2374514.html

Xeptu

13th Jul 2023, 18:19

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 19:31

It reminds me of Hitler, tell him how it is and get relieved of power

Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the Russian armed formations, currently in Zaporizhzhia, who was removed from his position earlier today says that Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes are causing significant casualties to the occupiers holding defence. Explaining in an audio message, Popov says he delivered a damning report about the state of Russian counter-battery fire directly to Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov which resulted in his immediate dismissal. In a four-minute audio message, Popov talks about betrayal from the most senior military leadership, echoing the sentiment expressed by Wagner mercenaries: "A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery. I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me. As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679270090624352256

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679270090624352256

NutLoose

13th Jul 2023, 19:46

FDR your post 2785 is exactly correct but too soft. Mine won't be.

Europeans: Stop your whining and procrastination and get the job done. Ukraine is doing all the heavy lifting for you, if the Russians advance then Poland will engage, Should that happen and Poland falls, so does all of Europe. The most powerful army in Europe right now is in Ukraine. So unless you don't mind being Putins bitches, get it done, it's not a negotiable matter.

One reason I keep going on about long range weapons and give them to them, until Ukraine has the ability to cut off the supply routes to the Russian forces it will go on.

GIVE THEM THE TOOLS TO FINISH THE JOB.

The only way this will end is to bring Russias forces to their knees, out of food, water, reserves and ammo.

I cannot fathom the F16 delay either, surely it is simply a conversion course?

FUMR

13th Jul 2023, 19:57

Whereas in the end it would seem that Prigozhin apparently did, Popov doesn't denounce the war though.

Torquetalk

13th Jul 2023, 21:11

I cannot fathom the F16 delay either, surely it is simply a conversion course?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8UlaAHdcRMg

Lucifer Morningstar

13th Jul 2023, 21:23

One reason I keep going on about long range weapons and give them to them, until Ukraine has the ability to cut off the supply routes to the Russian forces it will go on.

GIVE THEM THE TOOLS TO FINISH THE JOB.

The only way this will end is to bring Russias forces to their knees, out of food, water, reserves and ammo.

I cannot fathom the F16 delay either, surely it is simply a conversion course?

As for the delay in F16's (in addition to tanks, long range artillery etc etc) I suggest you read the posts from Baldeep Inminj as he nailed it in my opinion. The delay is down to a Western strategy that wants to ensure the war lasts as long as possible, but without Ukraine losing, in order to erode the Russian military as much as possible. He claimed to actually KNOW that this was the plan. I have no idea if it he did, but to me, his point is becoming more believeable every day with what I see befor my eyes. He left the forum, as I read it, because the Mods deleted his messages affirming this, which clearly it did not meet with their narrative.

In any event, everyone on this forum has a brain and the ability to think independently. So, just imagine that there was an unwritten, backroom agreement amongst NATO nations to ensure that the war drags on to degrade the Russian military, but not so much that Ukraine could lose. Now look at the dreadfully slow response to every Unkrainain request. Everything seems to arrive 'just in time to prevent disaster'. How would you explain it?

I am pretty sure his point was correct - the West want to ensure the war lasts long enough to grind the Russian forces into the ground, without spilling NATO blood. It would explain so much.

Standing by for the Mods to delete this post as they did to Baldeep..

Low average

13th Jul 2023, 21:29

As for the delay in F16's (in addition to tanks, long range artillery etc etc) I suggest you read the posts from Baldeep Inminj as he nailed it in my opinion. The delay is down to a Western strategy that wants to ensure the war lasts as long as possible, but without Ukraine losing, in order to erode the Russian military as much as possible. He claimed to actually KNOW that this was the plan. I have no idea if it he did, but to me, his point is becoming more believeable every day with what I see befor my eyes. He left the forum, as I read it, because the Mods deleted his messages affirming this, which clearly it did not meet with their narrative.

In any event, everyone on this forum has a brain and the ability to think independently. So, just imagine that there was an unwritten, backroom agreement amongst NATO nations to ensure that the war drags on to degrade the Russian military, but not so much that Ukraine could lose. Now look at the dreadfully slow response to every Unkrainain request. Everything seems to arrive 'just in time to prevent disaster'. How would you explain it?

I am pretty sure his point was correct - the West want to ensure the war lasts long enough to grind the Russian forces into the ground, without spilling NATO blood. It would explain so much.

Standing by for the Mods to delete this post as they did to Baldeep..

Remember how hard NATO tried to stop the war from even happening? Called out Putin's lies....repeatedly, months in advance?

Not a likely NATO strategy in my opinion.

Torquetalk

13th Jul 2023, 21:51

… He claimed to actually KNOW that this was the plan. I have no idea if it he did, but to me… etc etc

Standing by for the Mods to delete this post as they did to Baldeep..

Wow, that sounds almost like a fact if someone claimed to know something.

Maybe posts get cropped if they take paragraphs to make a point worthy of a sentence.

Or because they are paranoid, or woffle, or diss the mods who keep the garden tidy.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 22:06

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679599195370684416?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

BREAKING: Voronezh in Russia is under attack.

Doubtful this has anything to do with Ukraine. Appears to be internal Russian developments.

The Voronezh-45 nuclear military facility captured by Wagner PMC during the coup is in the area.

ORAC

13th Jul 2023, 22:12

Training for Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 will begin in August, and is expected to take 6 to 8 months to complete training, according to NATO and Ukrainian Leaders.

F-16s are expected to be deployed in Ukraine in March 2024, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Saab Dastard

13th Jul 2023, 23:57

He [baldeep] left the forum, as I read it, because the Mods deleted his messages affirming this, which clearly it did not meet with their narrative.
This is not true. Some of his posts were deleted simply because they were a series of unsubstantiated claims to "know something" that turned into a pointless bickerfest. Nothing whatsoever to do with "meeting a narrative". This was the explanatory post:

https://www.pprune.org/11407709-post15678.html

As an aside, I am curious as to how someone who joined in May 2023 could possibly know that those posts were deleted in March 2023, as those posts are (obviously) no longer visible to standard users, and were deleted a couple of months prior to that someone joining PPRuNe. Of course, if Lucifer Morningstar is an alias for someone else, that would explain a lot.

Xeptu

14th Jul 2023, 00:19

General Popov, it's important that you survive, by now it must be dawning on you that Putin knows he can't win this war and so his next most important objective is to assure he won't face a coup from his own forces. Now how best to assure that.???

Winemaker

14th Jul 2023, 01:34

Lonewolf_50

14th Jul 2023, 01:45

This is not true. Some of his posts were deleted simply because they were a series of unsubstantiated claims to "know something" that turned into a pointless bickerfest. Nothing whatsoever to do with "meeting a narrative". This was the explanatory post:

https://www.pprune.org/11407709-post15678.html

As an aside, I am curious as to how someone who joined in May 2023 could possibly know that those posts were deleted in March 2023, as those posts are (obviously) no longer visible to standard users, and were deleted a couple of months prior to that someone joining PPRuNe. Of course, if Lucifer Morningstar is an alias for someone else, that would explain a lot. I am laying 5-2 odds that Baldeep succumbed to what I call Eagles-internet-syndrome. (Hotel California lyric reference, and since Eagles fly, this is aviation content! Mods please let this stand)

You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.

Which means that he's back.
With that wager on the line, I'll venture the following:
Welcome back to the scrum, Baldeep Inminj Lucifer Morningstar. Have missed your input.
Mind if I call you Luke? (And since Luke AFB is where F-16 training was offered for so many years, including our foreign allies ... )

As to the F-16's, I believe that the Romanian Air Force may be feeling a bit of envy, in terms of how many F-16's a non NATO member gets, gratis it appears, as compared to their own upgrade to the Viper.
As far as I can tell, they have 14 with about 32 surplus Norwegian (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Norwegian_Air_Force) units on order as of November 2022... which means that they need to pay for them. :p
Details at this link. (https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norge-har-inngatt-kontrakt-om-salg-av-f-16-jagerfly-til-romania/id2945901/)

(Mind you, I suspect that the US Government may be offering certain loan guarantees - aka free money - under some sort of FMS program which may allow the sale to proceed ...)

Winemaker

14th Jul 2023, 01:51

I am laying 5-2 odds that Baldeep succumbed to what I call Eagles-internet-syndrome. (Hotel California lyric reference, and since Eagles fly, this is aviation content! Mods please let this stand)

You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.

Which means that he's back.
With that wager on the line, I'll venture the following:
Welcome back to the scrum, Baldeep Inminj Lucifer Morningstar. Have missed your input.
Mind if I call you Luke?
Don't forget our old friend etudiant.

Lonewolf_50

14th Jul 2023, 02:13

Don't forget our old friend etudiant. One can never forget our friend etudiant, I have had many fun conversations with him, but I don't quite 'feel' that style in the posts.
But we'll let that emerge over time if that's the case.

Imagegear

14th Jul 2023, 04:25

One can never forget our friend etudiant, I have had many fun conversations with him, but I don't quite 'feel' that style in the posts.
But we'll let that emerge over time if that's the case.

Perhaps your friend has been drafted into the great zombie army. :E

IG

Winemaker

14th Jul 2023, 04:31

One can never forget our friend etudiant, I have had many fun conversations with him, but I don't quite 'feel' that style in the posts.
But we'll let that emerge over time if that's the case.

Yeah, I see what you mean. Also, etudiant was (allegedly) from New York IIRC and had very good English skills. It does seem like it's time for the trolls to re-emerge.

Bidule

14th Jul 2023, 06:18

I've a few friends who are Polish emigres to the US who have a sharp distaste for how Germany treats the Eastern European countries smaller than themselves ...)
The Poles moving their Leopards to Ukraine to make way for Abrams looks like it won't be blocked by the Germans though, right?

Not only the "Eastern European countries", but a lot of other countries....;)

.

Less Hair

14th Jul 2023, 06:25

Most still like their money.

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 06:38

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1679714824186474496?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Footage of a Russian Tor SAM system attempting to engage a Ukrainian quadcopter, with a close miss.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x603/image_891a27a55b7eda155f25d34d3dd0e2a8b35ec1fd.png

wondering

14th Jul 2023, 06:57

As for the tank maintenance issue, a German news outlet reported Poland tried to charge 100000€ for an initial maintenance assessment whereas Lithuania charges only 12000€.

Could it be that someone tried to maximize profit?

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 06:59

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1679568965234831360?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Prigozhin’s mutiny has exposed unprecedented cracks in Putin's regime—and the divide keeps widening. Vladimir Solovyov cursed his audience members for siding with Gen. Ivan Popov and scolded his friend Andrey Gurulyov for sharing Popov's message.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propagandist-vladimir-solovyov-curses-audience-over-kremlin-war-scandal

https://youtu.be/Kiyte931WCk (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propagandist-vladimir-solovyov-curses-audience-over-kremlin-war-scandal)

Obba

14th Jul 2023, 07:07

artee

14th Jul 2023, 07:09

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 07:28

https://youtu.be/Mi4GyLyHfH8

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 07:43

Just a reminder of the difference in the level of protection provided by Russian and NATO IFVs - and why Russia is running out of even these and sending replacements troops into battle with no armour and just WWII rifles …

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1679586201995493377?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 07:57

Not a surprise….

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1679759094322790400?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

General Ivan Popov is reported to have disappeared following the publication of his highly critical remarks about the conduct of the war in southern Ukraine. He said earlier that he had been dismissed after criticising the Russian senior military leadership.

According to Popov's wife, communication with her husband has abruptly terminated after he was "summoned" by the leadership and flew somewhere to "solve his problems".

She says that the now-famous message published yesterday was not intended for a wide circle. It is said to have been released by Popov's associates to drum up support for returning him to his post. /end

Tartiflette Fan

14th Jul 2023, 08:05

If I'm reading ORAC's post (2795), correct;
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679599195370684416?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Therefore, there's a lot of Poo happening internally in Russia right now...!

Hopefully - if it is true - that could be a very good sign that Putin's days are numbered.
And if true, let's hope that any 'successor' will withdraw their (RU) forces - including Crimea. As I believe that Crimea is going to be a real nasty sticking point that even the 'West' may not be to bothered about once (if), Donetsk and Luhansk are recovered.

Since Crimea will have a major potential effect on the economic development of Ukraine - natural resources in the sovereign waters as well as investment potential if outsiders are convinced it is stable - I hope all interested parties will understand that their financial input into reconstruction will be minimised if Ukraine can use all of its natural wealth.

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 10:00

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1679753551948521472?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russia is reported to have created a secret high-security prison in Moscow, possibly for the detention of generals and high-ranking MOD officials. A building in the 2nd Western District Military Court was redesigned in late 2022 to incorporate cells and interrogation rooms…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679753551948521472.html

Ray Darbouy

14th Jul 2023, 11:13

Surely you should always get quotes before having your vehicle serviced? :O

Always get it writing... "Phsew, you ain't using this car tonight!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqqcrf64UWg

Enjoy...

fdr

14th Jul 2023, 12:52

Since Crimea will have a major potential effect on the economic development of Ukraine - natural resources in the sovereign waters as well as investment potential if outsiders are convinced it is stable - I hope all interested parties will understand that their financial input into reconstruction will be minimised if Ukraine can use all of its natural wealth.

Ukraine would argue the opposite case I would think. Russia had a good thing going with an agreement on their use of Crimea for the Black Sea Fleet, and then they squandered that by meddling with Ukraine, and actively attacking Ukraine marine assets. They have all the sand they can eat at Soichi, and over at Novo, and if they are very very good, Ukraine doesn't bottle up the Sea of Azov, and relegate Rostov to a shadow of its former importance. There will be tension for years on the donbas and Luhansk regions, Russia has guaranteed that. Russia may need to wait a while to ever be considered as anything other than a hostile bunch of sycophants, bowing to their brutal & criminal leadership they so worship. Ukrainians are fighting to get rid of the stench of Russian largesse.

Ukraine isn't going to stop without regaining Crimea, not with their certain knowledge of the perfidy of Russia. Count them off... S Ossetia, Georgia I Georgia II, Chechnya I, Chechnya II, Nagorno Karabakh, Transnistria/Moldova, Ukraine I, Ukraine II, etc, staged attacks on Moscow...

https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/russian-war-crimes-ukraine

https://www.russianwarcrimeshouse.org

https://www.hrw.org/news/2000/06/01/russian-atrocities-chechnya-detailed

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/20/russias-atrocities-in-ukraine-rehearsed-in-chechnya

Russia in a single fable

A scorpion wants to cross a river but cannot swim, so it asks a frog to carry it across. The frog hesitates, afraid that the scorpion might sting it, but the scorpion promises not to, pointing out that it would drown if it killed the frog in the middle of the river. The frog considers this argument sensible and agrees to transport the scorpion. Midway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway, dooming them both. The dying frog asks the scorpion why it stung despite knowing the consequence, to which the scorpion replies: "I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's in my nature.
Paraphrased from a number of sources, including The Hunter of the Pamirs and Mr. Arkadin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Arkadin). The movie Mr. Arkadin uses the word "character" in lieu of "nature". Russian versions of the tale tend to use the word "характер" (kharakter). [wiki]

fdr

14th Jul 2023, 13:16

Footage of a Russian Tor SAM system attempting to engage a Ukrainian quadcopter, with a close miss.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x603/image_891a27a55b7eda155f25d34d3dd0e2a8b35ec1fd.png

what is the chance the TOR launch site became the centre of a big smoking hole sometime thereafter? makes a good case for having a couple of all round cameras floating about in the swarm, giving a coordinated reception to the Russian missileers.

Have nothing against misileers, Jake Broe used to B 1, but Russian ones can ply their wares trying to shoot down their dear leader, just like the old days of 1917, when tsarists were last held accountable.

GlobalNav

14th Jul 2023, 13:56

Prigozhin’s mutiny has exposed unprecedented cracks in Putin's regime—and the divide keeps widening. Vladimir Solovyov cursed his audience members for siding with Gen. Ivan Popov and scolded his friend Andrey Gurulyov for sharing Popov's message.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propagandist-vladimir-solovyov-curses-audience-over-kremlin-war-scandal

https://youtu.be/Kiyte931WCk (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propagandist-vladimir-solovyov-curses-audience-over-kremlin-war-scandal)

Regardless of our wishes for Pr vs Pu, it’s really hard to tell what’s really going on. I don’t like either one and would lose sleep over either’s demise. But the conflicting, incongruous news and rumors, leave me with no strong hopes. The whole story about them seems to be a lie.

Imagegear

14th Jul 2023, 13:58

What would be nice if achievable, would be to allow the TOR to acquire a smaller faster drone which would lead it to the place of retribution.

A similar solution to the Argentine missile attack and Andy's helicopter and WW2 Sptfires tipping wings, etc.

IG.

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 14:03

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1088/image_c08fab24494fbe7863f7af48999606d0a2c0289b.png

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 14:25

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1679787665699250177?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The U.S will buy retired MIM-23 Hawk anti-air system with missiles from Taiwan, and will refurbish then send to Ukraine.

Taiwan has at least 13 batteries and 39 radars of this system.

This news is on some of the biggest medias in Taiwan already.

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 14:53

The chaos continues in Russia.

Its mind boggling they managed to engineer a major dispute with the main UAV and ammunition supplier….

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1679735018518720519?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

A conflict is brewing between Iran and Russia after the Russian Federation supported the UAE in a territorial dispute with Tehran.

Three islands: Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb have been controlled by Iran since 1971, but they are also claimed by the United Arab Emirates.

The Emirates recently renewed their claims to the territories, and this week Russia and the Gulf Arab states issued a joint statement calling for a diplomatic solution to the territorial dispute .

Instead, Iran declared that these islands "belong to it forever", and such statements contradict the friendly relations between Tehran and its neighbors.

Two days after the announcement of the statement, Tehran summoned the Russian ambassador, and Iranian officials called on the Russian Federation to correct its position on the territorial conflict.

bugged on the right

14th Jul 2023, 14:58

The U.S will buy retired MIM-23 Hawk anti-air system with missiles from Taiwan, and will refurbish then send to Ukraine.

Taiwan has at least 13 batteries and 39 radars of this system.

This news is on some of the biggest medias in Taiwan already.

Everybody gets an upgrade.

Sfojimbo

14th Jul 2023, 15:46

The Rodneli projection of the front lines hasn't changed (they haven't issued a new update) for 9 days; this is the longest they have gone without a new update for the last year, no update means no change in the lines. Their written description of the state of affairs reflects the same:

Zaporizhzhia Area and Donbas Area – South
Heavy fighting continued in the area of Staromaiorske. Ukrainian forces renewed attacks on Urozhaine and on the front between Staromaiorske and Pryyutne. The latter village likely remained under the Russian control during the reported period. South and southeast of Hulyaipole fighting restarted after a long pause.
Very intense fighting continued near Robotyne. Ukrainians advance a little northeast of this village, and then repelled the subsequent Russian counterattacks.
Ukrainians continued attacks from Pyatykhatky toward Zherebyanky, without achieving major advance.

Svatove-Starobilsk Area and Donbas Area – North
Russians advanced west of Kreminna approaching the eastern outskirts of Torske. West of Kuzemivka, Russians continued to attack toward Novoselivske, possibly entering this village. Intense fighting there continued at the time of writing. In the north, fighting restarted near village Lyman Pershyi, without major territorial changes.

Donbas Area – Northeast
Heavy fighting continued in the Berkhivka-Yahidne area with the two sides exchanging attacks.
Ukrainians continued to push and gradually advance on the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line, with Russians launching counterattacks. Fighting in this area remained very intense.

Donbas Area – Southeast
Fighting without major territorial changes occurred north of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka, and southwest of it between Vodyane and Sjeverne.
South of Mar’inka, Ukrainians pushed Russians back a little.

Black Sea-Dnipro River Area
Russian efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River near the Antonovskyi Bridge remained unsuccessful.

https://www.gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3536

I sure hope Ukraine has something in the wings we haven't seen yet waiting to be unleashed.

Wokkafans

14th Jul 2023, 18:25

Good news (of sorts)

Some of you may remember the clip of this guy jumping off the back ramp of an AFV to help extract his wounded colleagues trapped in a minefield. Unfortunately, he landed straight on an anti-personnel mine and was then seen climbing back aboard, trailing blood and a severely mangled limb.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1679883804314419201?s=20

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1679883804314419201?s=20

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 21:43

Further to #2824…

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1679894475697532932?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russia interrupted the supply of paid Su-35 fighters to Iran...

"Russia has not supplied Iran with a large batch of Su-35 fighter jets, which Tehran paid for in full and expected to receive in 2023" - writes Bourse & Bazaar & Bazaar.

According to them, Tehran ordered 50 fighter jets from Moscow during the second presidential term of Hassan Rouhani, which ended in 2021. Then Russia promised to fulfill the contract in 2023. Now, however, none of the sources among Iranian officials expect Moscow to keep its word.

Problems with the purchase of military equipment from Moscow became known from the statement of the commander of the Iranian Air Force, Brigadier General Vahedi. "As for the purchase of Su-35 fighter jets , we need them, but we don't know when they will arrive in our squadron"….

NutLoose

14th Jul 2023, 21:49

Lol that wigs clip.

https://twitter.com/JustSomGlowie/status/1676663824169029644

https://twitter.com/JustSomGlowie/status/1676663824169029644

NutLoose

14th Jul 2023, 21:53

A Tor AD attempts to take down a Ukrainian drone

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1679759090929598470

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1679759090929598470

ORAC

14th Jul 2023, 22:05

Ukraine and Gripen….

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1679509126089408512?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

On the sidelines of the NATO summit, Ukraine and Sweden signed agreements on the exchange of secret information and the supply of defense weapons. Euractiv writes that the first agreement will allow Ukraine to test Swedish JAS 39 Gripen fighters in the future.

fdr

14th Jul 2023, 22:20

A Tor AD attempts to take down a Ukrainian drone

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1679759090929598470

https://twitter.com/Johnsto57126570/status/1679762723377238016/photo/1

NutLoose

14th Jul 2023, 22:33

A hit Bradley still operating, I wouldn’t fancy being in it though.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679844430939930626

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679844430939930626

NutLoose

14th Jul 2023, 22:49

:sad:

Just so tragic

https://twitter.com/FreeCrimeaNow/status/1679128150746226689

https://twitter.com/FreeCrimeaNow/status/1679128150746226689

NutLoose

14th Jul 2023, 23:17

Very good look at how the war Is progressing.

https://youtu.be/8fR9HJnYXoc

wondering

15th Jul 2023, 04:13

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 07:16

For all their public comments, the US is still deliberately stalling….

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/14/europe-us-f16-training-00106433

Europe still waiting on U.S. to formally approve F-16 training

Nearly a dozen European countries that pledged this week to train Ukrainian pilots are still waiting on the U.S. to formally approve the program before instruction on American F-16 fighter jets can begin, according to U.S. and European officials involved in the discussions….

But instruction on F-16s can’t actually start until the State Department formally signs off on the request to transfer instruction manuals, flight simulators and other materials associated with the jets — and that hasn’t happened yet.

While President Joe Biden has promised to green-light the program, the formal request “is still being reviewed,” said Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesperson, who deferred further questions to the State Department. A State Department spokesperson declined to comment.….

With any export or training package, the Pentagon has to “make sure we’re ready to go with the technical manuals being translated and the tech data packages and a sustainment plan,” in place before officials will sign off on a transfer, Pentagon acquisition chief William LaPlante told POLITICO in an interview.…

But U.S. officials are not telegraphing a sense of urgency. A top Pentagon official, Joint Staff director of operations Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, told reporters Thursday that the situation on the frontlines in Ukraine is currently “not ideal” for the use of F-16s.

“The Russians still possess some air defense capability. They have air capability. And the number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what’s going on right now,” Sims said. “As the future changes, that certainly will dictate how that is employed.”

Obba

15th Jul 2023, 07:30

RE: NutLoose 2835.Anders Puck Nielsen, military analyst and Naval Captain at the Royal Danish Defense College. Photo – RDDChttps://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/300x300/anders_puck_nielsen_military_analyst_and_naval_captain_at_th e_royal_danish_defence_college_photo_rddc_300x300_69ff8be3f2 41acc04986aed63db5207af6873975.jpg

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 08:03

Arms sales - tanks, MLRS?

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1680118725046046722?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
"South Korean President Yoon Seok-Yeol arrived in Ukraine on an unannounced visit", - Yonhap

Welcome to Ukraine 🇺🇦🇰🇷

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x808/image_b19a224f63364d916e1a63bc743e92a1c557a8e3.png

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 12:01

Gr8nding them down…..

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1680134950907965441?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”.

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

[…]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

[...]

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

[…]

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it.""

212man

15th Jul 2023, 13:18

Wokkafans

15th Jul 2023, 14:03

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680196310119350275?s=20

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680196310119350275?s=20

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 15:18

Ben Wallace explains his statement and a Ukrainian comments.

https://twitter.com/KevDoesTweeter/status/1679974621599203330

https://twitter.com/KevDoesTweeter/status/1679974621599203330

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 15:34

This says something about Russia’s equipment levels.

https://twitter.com/1966pnutt1/status/1679883263966343175

https://twitter.com/1966pnutt1/status/1679883263966343175

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 15:56

That Leo that got stuck in the trenches.

https://twitter.com/ChallengerInUA/status/1672184594924199936
https://twitter.com/ChallengerInUA/status/1672184594924199936

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 16:03

AMX-10 captured by the Russian’s

https://twitter.com/StickGoesBoomm/status/1680202808459509760

https://twitter.com/StickGoesBoomm/status/1680202808459509760

ninja-lewis

15th Jul 2023, 16:25

must be an old photo - that rank tab is a Commander It's correct actually. The Royal Danish Navy call their OF-3 Orlogskaptain (captain) while their OF-5s Kommandør (commander).

https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orlogskaptajn

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 16:35

Testing new Ukrainian ceramic plates and the results are superb in my eyes.

https://twitter.com/BrigadeNormande/status/1679229176719572995

https://twitter.com/BrigadeNormande/status/1679229176719572995

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 16:44

Before and after images of the strikes on Russian ammunition warehouses in Novooleksiivka

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680245695586992136

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680245695586992136

Wokkafans

15th Jul 2023, 18:30

Wagner on the move.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680278775768965121?s=20

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680278775768965121?s=20

Jobza Guddun

15th Jul 2023, 18:37

Wagner on the move.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680278775768965121?s=20

To quote Trevor Howard in the Battle of Britain 1969...."the b******s are up to something"....

I smell a rat.

FUMR

15th Jul 2023, 19:18

I'm sure they are being closely watched.

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 20:48

It really is mind boggling that she can’t look in a mirror and recognise that she’s describing themselves….

https://youtu.be/rKkOkt4NDAQ

Beamr

15th Jul 2023, 21:12

The plot thickens. Russian VDV troops threaten Shoigu and Gerasimov.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1680309371106983939

"Servicemen of the 7th Airborne Division recorded an audio message to the Ministry of Defense. In particular, they spoke in defense of their commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky. The catalyst for this appeal was the removal of the commander of the 106th Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces, General Seliverstov . In addition, in early July, General Kornev was removed from command of the 7th Airborne Assault Division. “We, the paratroopers, warn that we will not tolerate such actions in relation to General Teplinsky. And in the event of the slightest threat to his life and freedom, we will stand as a wall to protect the honor and dignity of our commander. We are very determined. Up to the point that we will withdraw from our positions and go to the rescue of our Bata. You, those who sit in the offices! The landing party does not abandon its own! Do not make fatal mistakes"
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1680309371106983939

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 21:23

It looks like purges in the ranks of the Russian army continue.

Russian sources say that Major General Vladimir Selivestrov, who commanded the 106th Airborne Division, which is now located in the Bakhmut direction, was fired.

As claimed, due to "unaccommodating character".

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 21:54

Meanwhile back in Russia.. problems at a nuclear facility.

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1679990206504550408

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1679990206504550408

ORAC

15th Jul 2023, 22:07

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1680239982328389632?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

A russian tank cannot find a safe haven anywhere - not even at the bottom of a river.

During the siege of Chernihiv in February-March 2022, the russians attempted but failed to force their way through the Desna. Divers are still retrieving equipment sunk by the invaders.

The tank will enter service with the #UAarmy after minor repairs.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1039x679/image_fe877695bc5977cac02b5bcd1a6f481a0d473fee.jpeg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/905x586/image_3fbc03ebce74b00a98242cf5cabaa0994a730133.jpeg

Winemaker

15th Jul 2023, 22:13

It really is mind boggling that she can’t look in a mirror and recognise that she’s describing themselves….

https://youtu.be/rKkOkt4NDAQ
I know they're paid to say what they do, but the cognitive dissonance is astounding. Threatening Paris and London with, I guess, nuclear attack without a thought that it would be returned. Astounding. One (me) watches this stuff with mouth agape; and she's right, they no longer have any friends. Who, exactly, started this?

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 22:21

Now here is an offer you can refuse!

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680196888602050560

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680196888602050560

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 22:24

Brilliant plan….. more like fecking idiots..

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673

NutLoose

15th Jul 2023, 22:43

Now that is something you do not see very often

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679856225855369222

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1679856225855369222

Winemaker

16th Jul 2023, 01:20

Brilliant plan….. more like fecking idiots..

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673
Take part in the state program of development of the Far East You can expect: 1. The opportunity to choose any of one of the regions of the Far East 2. Receipt of a lift in the amount of 240,000 rubles additional 120,000 for each family member. 3. Guaranteed employment. Average salary of 55,000 rubles. 4. Preferential conditions for admission to universities for families of program participants.
Yeah, 'You can expect' et al, but will you actually 'get' it. Probably not. Expect all you want, take what's given.

Winemaker

16th Jul 2023, 01:33

Brilliant plan….. more like fecking idiots..

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673
So, let me get my head around this, he's suggesting Russia invade Poland? The Suwalki gap was of concern to NATO when it was thought the Russians had like 10,000 tanks. One of the main reasons for tactical nuclear weapons was to prevent the Russians from bridging the gap, but now it seems there may not actually be all those tanks. A brilliant strategy based on some alternate reality, not to mention what would happen if they invaded Poland..... Maybe it's time the Russkies step back a bit and actually think about what's happened. The second best Army in the world after Ukraine indeed.......

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 02:15

So, let me get my head around this, he's suggesting Russia invade Poland? The Suwalki gap was of concern to NATO when it was thought the Russians had like 10,000 tanks. One of the main reasons for tactical nuclear weapons was to prevent the Russians from bridging the gap, but now it seems there may not actually be all those tanks. A brilliant strategy based on some alternate reality, not to mention what would happen if they invaded Poland..... Maybe it's time the Russkies step back a bit and actually think about what's happened. The second best Army in the world after Ukraine indeed.......

Yup, that sounds like the grand plan, an excursion into article 5 territory, telling the World Wagner have nothing to do with Russia, whilst going up against the one country in Europe that will wipe the floor with them. As I said, fecking idiots, and if Belarus joins in the Poles may need to move the Poland Belarus border fence east to the new Belarus Russia border.

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 02:26

A Ukrainian Leopard 2A4V tank suitably adorned with a heck of a lot of extra Kontakt-1 armour

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1680175062614155266

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1680175062614155266

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1680336253730930688

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1680336253730930688

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 03:10

Looks like a direct hit

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680293136558432257

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680293136558432257

Low average

16th Jul 2023, 07:15

https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/16/nyt-around-20-of-ukraines-weapons-lost-in-first-weeks-of-counteroffensive

Tartiflette Fan

16th Jul 2023, 08:20

I know they're paid to say what they do, but the cognitive dissonance is astounding. Threatening Paris and London with, I guess, nuclear attack without a thought that it would be returned. Astounding. One (me) watches this stuff with mouth agape; and she's right, they no longer have any friends. Who, exactly, started this?

She actually said that they have lots of friends, but none in the West. She didn't get around to naming their many friends.

Tartiflette Fan

16th Jul 2023, 08:34

A russian tank cannot find a safe haven anywhere - not even at the bottom of a river.

During the siege of Chernihiv in February-March 2022, the russians attempted but failed to force their way through the Desna. Divers are still retrieving equipment sunk by the invaders.

The tank will enter service with the #UAarmy after minor repairs.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1039x679/image_fe877695bc5977cac02b5bcd1a6f481a0d473fee.jpeg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/905x586/image_3fbc03ebce74b00a98242cf5cabaa0994a730133.jpeg

"The tank will enter service with the #UAarmy after minor repairs."

Rather optimistic there I would say. After 15 months in a river, I can imagine it will need: new engine,complete electrical system and all motors, relays,etc including all sensors and fire-control system, all bearings,complete strip and cleaning of hydraulic and fuel-systems.

fdr

16th Jul 2023, 09:19

It really is mind boggling that she can’t look in a mirror and recognise that she’s describing themselves….

https://youtu.be/rKkOkt4NDAQ

She is a particularly troubled Romulan.

Propagandist Simonyan's vulgarity and gaudiness- kavkazplus.com - Georgia news (http://kavkazplus.com/en/news.php?id=13565)

Enough when former CIS states can't stand her.

She adds something to the sordid nature of propaganda. There is a photo of her sprawled out on the floor in her underwear, which is rather undignified, but somehow apt. Can't find it, but if anyone has it, it shows the beast beneath the chintz and venom.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x750/1664304789_12_titki_biz_p_margarita_simonyan_hot_erotika_13_ 84c5b0a0222b2e9cb995afd44cceac94557cf07b.jpg

ORAC

16th Jul 2023, 12:23

More and more the reports flood in of the Russian troops now being committed with no artillery, no air support, no armour or IFV and even no food, personal weapons or ammunition….

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1680533457385013248?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Rashist mobiks in Bakhmut refused to complete "suicide orders" and are now threatened with shooting by their leadership. The men hit all bingo cards: terrible commanders, no ammo, no artillery and aviation support, delays in payments, and no rotation or rest:

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 16:33

It appears someone was planning to top Margarita Simonyan.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680164589361561600

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680164589361561600

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 16:53

Germany’s idea of a minefield compared to the reality of a Ukrainian one.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680594477465886720

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680594477465886720

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 17:26

Another attack by USV and UAV,s on Sevastopol.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680480557015224320

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680480557015224320

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 17:45

Whatever they hit, it appears to have been big.

Ukrainian forces hit Russian target in Luhansk with Storm Shadow cruise missile.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680479875008790529

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680479875008790529

Beamr

16th Jul 2023, 17:51

A real bargain!

https://twitter.com/papalia_chris/status/1680501974502973443

https://twitter.com/papalia_chris/status/1680501974502973443

ORAC

16th Jul 2023, 19:36

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1680655134559272960?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

It's nice to know I'm over target with US national security adviser Jake "McNamara" Sullivan.

Of course he's correct in stating "I'm not delaying F-16 Training." He isn't. He is being "Thorough." The 1999 AH-64 Apache Task Force Hawk deployment kind of "Thorough."

Sullivan's gambit here is "Playing Task Force Hawk", that is, logistically slow walking and finding any possible bureaucratic obstacle to avoid obeying an executive decision while obeying.

Task Force Hawk is a classic in national security 'deep state' insubordination.

Benjamin S. Lambeth's Feb. 1, 2002 article titled "Task Force Hawk" in Air & Space Forces magazine gives a wonderful timeline of events for showing how the national security bureaucracy can be insubordinate by playing "Work-to-Rule" games….

https://t.co/2Ff37mCYsz

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 20:15

Now I do not know if this is real, but if it is, wow. Still, they do kill regardless.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679501037265121281

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679501037265121281

ORAC

16th Jul 2023, 20:34

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680558217036722180?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The last ship to be allowed to leave Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative left the port of Odesa today. It carries 15 000 tons of rapeseed and 24 000 tons of corn.

The grain deal expires tomorrow.

Will the Turkish Navy intervene if Russia doesn’t renew the deal?

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x894/image_f400f19bbe1e09e27ab9dc733c2acba53d66389e.png

Winemaker

16th Jul 2023, 21:14

Can't find it, but if anyone has it, it shows the beast beneath the chintz and venom.
Thanks a lot fdr, I can't unsee that. I need to wash my eyes with bleach or something.

NutLoose

16th Jul 2023, 21:32

FINALLY…. Approval being given to start F16 training..

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1680673227654176769

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1680673227654176769

GeeRam

16th Jul 2023, 21:32

Now I do not know if this is real, but if it is, wow. Still, they do kill regardless.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679501037265121281

Indeed.
All in good condition though......so must have been recently removed from deep storage and cleaned of cosmo. I'm surprised there's not a load of WW2 German stuff being dug out as well, the USSR refurbished about 6 million German K98k's alone in the 1950's and then put them into storage, along with MP40's, MG34's and MG42's etc. The corrupt officials though have sold a lot of the German stuff to collectors for good money during the past 30 years though, so maybe not much left?

The Lend-Lease Thompsons are M1A1's so from 1942/43 era not 1938, and they'll not be any use as they hardly used them during WW2 through lack of .45ACP ammo, so I doubt they'll have much of it to use now...??

rattman

17th Jul 2023, 01:47

Various reports coming through that the crimea bridge has been struck again

Greyzone reportAt 03:04 and 03:20, two strikes were carried out on the Crimean bridge by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

One span collapsed, another came off the support, which accounted for at least one hit.

Previously, two people also died, one was injured (a child).

The brown line continues.

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 02:08

rattman

17th Jul 2023, 02:19

A video of the damage. Not as exstensive as last time if this is the only damage. However prevents the usage.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1680759823976247296

Apparently 2 separate strikes at 2 different locations about 20 minutes apart, theres other stills showing the a end of one span about 3-4 feet in the air, hard to make any BDA based on such early info

rattman

17th Jul 2023, 02:58

The Russian-Appointed Leader of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov has announced that the 145th Pillar on the Kerch Strait Bridge has Collapsed as a result of a “Terrorist Attack” causing a Total Halt in Car Traffic across the Bridge; he further stated that No Damage was caused to the Train Bridge and that Rail Traffic will begin again soon.

If they lost a pier than the road bridge is ....... boned/screwed

Winemaker

17th Jul 2023, 03:04

If they lost a pier than the road bridge is ....... boned/screwed
I'd guess the Russian holiday makers might have some regrets.... A few more hits might be called for, the bridge is certainly not going anywhere.

rattman

17th Jul 2023, 03:10

I'd guess the Russian holiday makers might have some regrets.... A few more hits might be called for, the bridge is certainly not going anywhere.

IF they have taken out a pier then bridge is done for. Might as well hit the rail bridge instead

Also a complete and totally unsubstantiated rumor, but russians are reporting that part of the black sea grain deal was that ukraine would not target the crimean bridge. Guess what deal officially ended today ?

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 05:29

Morning has broken, a few pictures.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1680810763315757056

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1680810763315757056

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 06:19

In depth look at the sacking of multiple Russian front-line generals…

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1680775043456937984?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

NEW: The #Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort. This effort may significantly demoralize Russian forces fighting in #Ukraine.

https://isw.pub/UkrWar071623

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 06:22

Video of the damaged part from a passing by train.

I wonder when will they hit the railway bridge.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680824307411238912

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680824307411238912

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 06:50

Confirms the report from the Russian governor of Crimea that pier 145 was taken down leading to the road collapse, the missing portion is quite evident.

Need an engineer to confirm if that can be repaired, but I would have thought that it would need total replacement for structural integrity.

The remaining half supports the other road span. Will the remaining part of the pier retain its structural strength or will the that span be compromised as well?

Dead on Time

17th Jul 2023, 07:02

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 07:35

First UKR pilots have already left for F16 training.

No exact number mentioned but "dozens"

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1680842994566541317

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1680842994566541317

SRMman

17th Jul 2023, 08:01

Video of the damaged part from a passing by train.

I wonder when will they hit the railway bridge.

hope it's when an ammo train is crossing the bridge....lots of brisance in a thousand tons or more of exploding ammunition :E

DoT
Should the question not be: I wonder WHY they haven't hit the railway bridge?

You'd think that the rail link is more useful to the Russians in terms of heavy munitions getting in, leaving the road link available for the ground forces to leave?

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 08:08

Russian officials have reportedly advised tourists to go via Melitopol. That's 50km from the front. What a brilliant idea.
Also, the bridges from Crimea in the north have been targets as well.

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1680841427792568320

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1680841427792568320

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 08:18

This video shows well how both road spans are damaged. Highly likely that nothing will be moving via the bridge safely for a good while in neither direction.
Still waiting for images of the pylon to emerge. Hopefully the pylon is shot as well.

https://twitter.com/junolocal/status/1680827949149491200

https://twitter.com/junolocal/status/1680827949149491200

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 08:19

Should the question not be: I wonder WHY they haven't hit the railway bridge?

Attack being reported as being made using naval drones, the road spans are to the south, the attack direction, and the road span piers are in front of the rail piers.

To attack the rail piers they’d have to pass under the bridge and circle round to attack from the north.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1000x2000/image_0fa2876d877f2274692033f084ab8d84d2747864.png

Tartiflette Fan

17th Jul 2023, 08:42

Attack being reported as being made using naval drones, the road spans are to the south, the attack direction, and the road span piers are in front of the rail piers.

To attack the rail piers they’d have to pass under the bridge and circle round to attack from the north.

We don't know if these were high-speed or stealth drones. In the latter case there would seem to be no reason not to simply motor through and aim at the rail piers: if it were the former, then undoubtedly more difficult, but unknown if circling back would be required.I do wonder, however, why the rail piers were not attacked. Everything I have read says that the rail link is much more important to the supply effort.

EDIT: Was the final outcome of the investigation of the first attack that it was a truck-bomb carried by a Ukrainian agent/sympathiser/unknowing transport driver ? I don't recall anthying after the initial burst of news.

Tartiflette Fan

17th Jul 2023, 09:06

Interesting read, although short on facts.

A Crimean Tatar-led underground movement is already active behind Russian lines and hundreds of young Tatar men are ready to take up arms to liberate the occupied peninsula, a veteran community leader has said.Mustafa Dzemilev, widely seen as the godfather of the Crimean Tatar rights movement, pointed to operations by the Atesh guerrilla group, comprising Crimean Tatars, Ukrainians and Russians, in Crimea (https://www.theguardian.com/world/crimea) and other occupied Ukrainian regions.

Atesh, which means “fire” in Crimean Tatar, was created in September last year, primarily to carry out acts of sabotage from within the ranks of the Russian army. It claims more than 4,000 Russian soldiers (https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1625928616256077856?lang=en) have already enrolled in an online course on how to “survive the war” by wrecking their own equipment. .

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/the-underground-crimean-tatar-group-taking-up-arms-against-russia

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 09:12

jolihokistix

17th Jul 2023, 09:23

Video of the damaged part from a passing by train.

I wonder when will they hit the railway bridge.

hope it's when an ammo train is crossing the bridge....lots of brisance in a thousand tons or more of exploding ammunition :E

DoT

My memory is foggy but I did read somewhere that the rail bridge was repaired only enough to carry ‘light’ trains. If so, this might explain why higher priority was placed on hitting the road sections.

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 09:40

No doubt they are operating on the rules of no firing into Russia, as the next ideal target would have been the factory unit at the far end that constructed the bridge sections and the previous repairs.

The fleet in Sevastopol would also be a nice target, especially when rearming.

FUMR

17th Jul 2023, 10:15

Andrewgr2

17th Jul 2023, 10:54

Tartiflette Fan

17th Jul 2023, 10:56

But can they not hit targets in Russia if not using weapons provided by the west?

Their army commander confirmed that this week, but they don't have any long-range Ukrainian ground-to-ground , or air-to-ground weaponry, although some is in development.

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 11:16

Si if I am reading this video correctly it is both lanes effected, one had dropped and the other has too, the start is looking at the damage to the far lanes of the bridge then as it scans across to the other two lanes you can see they have dropped as well at 11 secs onwards.... outstanding, Russia is claiming it was a surface drone.

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1680817077395791872

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1680817077395791872

Additional footage.

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680867725428633600

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680867725428633600

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680866206184529920

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680866206184529920

..

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 11:22

Double Crikey! I think he is dead..I suppose the amount of lead chucked in its general direction was for possible troops in the back. Just as well it does not appear to be hauling ammo.

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680884179951669248

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680884179951669248

.. (https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680884179951669248)

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 11:39

Russians are advancing in the Kupyan direction :(

https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1680632675357294592

https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1680632675357294592

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680866183090778114

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680866183090778114

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 12:04

At 2.45 it shows the steel pillars that are used to support the bridges pylons.

https://youtu.be/S0YLqjpccWU

FUMR

17th Jul 2023, 12:29

Double Crikey! I think he is dead..I suppose the amount of lead chucked in its general direction was for possible troops in the back. Just as well it does not appear to be hauling ammo.

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680884179951669248

.. (https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680884179951669248)

Talk about wasting ammo!

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 12:39

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation reported the murder of the leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, Oleg Khorzhan, on July 17 in his home.

albatross

17th Jul 2023, 13:08

Thanks a lot fdr, I can't unsee that. I need to wash my eyes with bleach or something.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/640x991/img_3458_efe660641b34fbee78d70045f3de5c67d3981862.jpeg

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 13:12

Plenty of videos emerging of a Russian Su25 crashing near coastline at Yeysk, reason for crashing unknown. Pilot reported dead.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1680926001331679242

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1680926001331679242

jolihokistix

17th Jul 2023, 13:35

It appears someone was planning to top Margarita Simonyan.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680164589361561600

Well, things do not seem to be quite so clear-cut. Why on earth would these 'assassins' want to get rid of an opposition figure too?
Russia says it foiled assassination attempts on top media figures | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/15/russia-says-foiled-assassination-attempts-on-top-media-figures)

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 13:40

Better copy of the ejection video.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680924972892528641?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

hugh flung_dung

17th Jul 2023, 14:10

Russians are advancing in the Kupyan direction :(
Whether or not it's true that they are advancing, that video looks very much like a fake.

HFD (who finds the left picture in #2870 quite appealing)

jolihokistix

17th Jul 2023, 14:16

Better copy of the ejection video.

Whoever took the footage finds it highly amusing.
Evidence of local opposition following that crash into an apartment building last year?

On 17 October 2022, a Sukhoi Su-34 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34) from the airfield accidentally struck (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Yeysk_military_aircraft_crash) an apartment building in Yeysk, killing at least 13.
Yeysk - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yeysk)

Wokkafans

17th Jul 2023, 14:17

Usual caveats apply (pro-Russian poster) - claim UK tech was used in the bridge attack.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1680872705539571713?s=20

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1680872705539571713?s=20

jolihokistix

17th Jul 2023, 14:48

Is TG Resident (quoted above) Ukrainian or Russian?

just another jocky

17th Jul 2023, 14:58

Russians are advancing in the Kupyan direction :(

https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1680632675357294592

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1680866183090778114
That looks fake. Look at her eyes and mouth.

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 14:59

🤡🤡🤡

https://twitter.com/natalkakyiv/status/1680936849609486342?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

In case anyone was worried about Russian tourists unable to make it for their Crimean vacations on time, RIA News is reporting that;

“Tourists who are late to arrive at vacation destinations in Crimea will be refunded, and there will be no fines for being late, RIA News was told by the Russian Union of Tourism Industry.

According to the association, about 20,000 vacationers are expected to come to the peninsula in the coming days.”

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x865/image_fa83dd2caa3cfd2aa40a9ac4bbfe31ed4c9cb926.png

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 14:59

Russian tourists in Crimea are starting to realize there is a war going on as they are forced to drive home via the northern route next to the front line.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680936587406761985

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680936587406761985

Wokkafans

17th Jul 2023, 15:25

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1680830505778925573?s=20

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1680830505778925573?s=20

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 15:28

Hmm, does that mean Turkey is still under treaty to protect ships carrying grain departing from Odesa?

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1680932696086794240?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Zelenskyi responded to the onesided termination of the grain agreement by Russia.

"There were two agreements: Ukraine-Türkiye-UN and Russia-Türkiye-UN.”

“Therefore, when Russia says that it is stopping, it breaks its agreements with UN Secretary General Guterres and with President Erdogan.”

“Not with us. We did not have any agreements with them," he said.

uffington sb

17th Jul 2023, 16:28

HFD. Thanks a lot mate. I had to go and look at 2870, and now I need some Clorox!

Ohrly

17th Jul 2023, 17:00

That looks fake. Look at her eyes and mouth.

I'd be more concerned with the chair moving in sync with her head. Why blatantly repost faked propaganda?

ORAC

17th Jul 2023, 17:33

Girkin getting the Heebie Jeebies over Erdogan - let’s see what happens over Russia pulling out of the grain deal…..

https://twitter.com/natalkakyiv/status/1680971467993890817?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

War criminal Girkin is predicting Turkey will have a direct military clash with Russia:

“The moment of truth is getting closer.

Or rather, the time is getting closer when my oldest (from the beginning of the Syrian campaign) forecasts about the development of the situation in the "Ukraine-Turkey-Syria" connection will come true.…

The question of the timely withdrawal of our expeditionary force in Syria has long been "overcooked", but has not yet been raised as such.

A large group of our military remains Erdogan’s “hostage". We can expect with high probability that the long-awaited rejection of the shameful and senseless "grain deal" will set in motion a chain of consequences that naturally leads to a sharp aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations and an acceleration of Turkey's inevitable transition to the camp of our open enemies.

The time allotted for the possibility of evacuating our troops from Syria during the "deal" is apparently lost forever.”

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 18:45

The report of damages given to Putler says the railway tracks are damaged as well and it'll be mid September before road traffic may resume. Thats assuming there will be no more attacks of course...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680993220623233029

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680993220623233029

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 19:04

The Special Escape Operation of Russian tourists is causing heavy traffic jams tens of kilometers long.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1681005115044696064

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1681005115044696064

fdr

17th Jul 2023, 19:07

Whether or not it's true that they are advancing, that video looks very much like a fake.

HFD (who finds the left picture in #2870 quite appealing)

HFD, that is just your left hand side of your brain taking charge, if you turn around 180 degrees, or alternatively stand in the land down under your taste will reflect the image on the right side, which may be just coriolis at play, or could just be bad luck, could happen to anyone. While this is a slight point of levity, the subject lady, Ms M S has a future date to look forward to in The Hague, a romantic dinner for the next 25-life would seem to be a great choice. Imagine, free board and lodging, and no hassles of propaganda production schedules.

Ukraines timing of the Kerch Bridge renovation s impeccable, is problemma for Putins, no? Will add to the memories of the Soviet holiday makers who flocked to Crimea for Summer break, and will assist the vendors and hawkers on the road between Sevastopol and Rostov. Travellers should be advised of travel delays, and should take ear plugs, it has been noisy and the bavovna are in bloom.

FDR

Beamr

17th Jul 2023, 19:20

The Kerch bridge defence plan by Shoigu. All this yet the bridge is down again. Russian efficiency.

https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1680998758148874241

https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1680998758148874241

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 20:22

All these fleeing holiday makers will cause havoc on troop movements and control behind the Russian lines.

Dead on Time

17th Jul 2023, 21:28

Should the question not be: I wonder WHY they haven't hit the railway bridge?

You'd think that the rail link is more useful to the Russians in terms of heavy munitions getting in, leaving the road link available for the ground forces to leave?

Think the rail bridge is structurally stronger and consequently a harder demolition job. Last October's blast on the road bridge caused collateral damage to the rail bridge from burning fuel tanks from a fortuitously passing train. Can't help but think the rail bridge and road bridge would be well demolished by an exploding ordnance train. Possibly, maybe, a fpv drone flown by local resistance might even detonate a passing ordnance train.... a most unsymmetrical/cost effective demolition job if it ever were to happen.

Don't think there's any credence to the idea of 'lets leave the road bridge intact for russian forces withdrawal' Doesn't make sense to leave the road bridge intact when russian trucks can therefore be used to supply Ukraine's opposing force.

DoT

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 22:27

Meanwhile back in Russia they have Wagner lumped upon them, rather ironic isn’t it, and the situation can only get worse.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1681019951547662339

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1681019951547662339

NutLoose

17th Jul 2023, 22:48

Cuckoo land or what, they obviously assume Ukraine is going to sit back and watch this happen.

A temporary bridge 250 meters long will be built near the damaged part of the Crimean bridge, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnullin said. "We plan to launch a fully-fledged one span on September 15. We will work to restore the second span. It does not work here according to technology, so we will most likely build a temporary 250-meter bridge and lift the spans with heavy cranes" - Khusnullin said.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1681024643073802242

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1681024643073802242

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 00:02

Well, you can see why the Ukrainians like Western APC’s, getting into that damned thing under fire is a nightmare.

https://twitter.com/sebastienroblin/status/1680310210542313472

https://twitter.com/sebastienroblin/status/1680310210542313472

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 00:26

MRAPs caught up in a minefield :(

https://twitter.com/_Surovikin_/status/1680964339950387200

https://twitter.com/_Surovikin_/status/1680964339950387200

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 00:38

Overhead shot of the bridge, you can see the twisted road lanes on the right, and if you look at the left hand lanes white lane side markings, it has shifted over to the right and dropped.https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1005x1200/image_c1f99b79d729590f545c6e28834f1f831f86c116.jpeg

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 01:02

Film of the family in their car on the bridge that got hit, one is through the windscreen but appears conscious, i do not know if that was the survivor, WARNING: viewer discretion advised, only a quote, not a post so it does not come up on the site.

As for some of the comments about the poor girl and losing her family, well my thought go back to the old couple chopped to pieces when they pulled up near a junction and a APC fired into their car, or Bucha…. You play with fire, expect to get burnt, Russia brought this onto themselves, not the other way around.

There are reports are of 25km queues of cars attempting to flee Crimea

https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1680784601155883010

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 01:13

Biggus Dickus is back on his Nuke the world spiel again.

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1681055139879088128

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1681055139879088128

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 01:23

They’re getting worried.

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680699743704428546

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680699743704428546

Tartiflette Fan

18th Jul 2023, 04:40

Think the rail bridge is structurally stronger and consequently a harder demolition job. Last October's blast on the road bridge caused collateral damage to the rail bridge from burning fuel tanks from a fortuitously passing train. Can't help but think the rail bridge and road bridge would be well demolished by an exploding ordnance train. Possibly, maybe, a fpv drone flown by local resistance might even detonate a passing ordnance train.... a most unsymmetrical/cost effective demolition job if it ever were to happen.

Don't think there's any credence to the idea of 'lets leave the road bridge intact for russian forces withdrawal' Doesn't make sense to leave the road bridge intact when russian trucks can therefore be used to supply Ukraine's opposing force.

DoT

Russia doesn't have either enough trucks or even the logistical system to do this. Their long-distance supply is based on rail, so this strike on the road-bridge will not affect supply dramatically at the bridge, however the thousands of cars diverted via Melitopol will cause short-range supply ( by truck ) close to the front to be heavily disrupted.

ORAC

18th Jul 2023, 06:09

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1681065550703652864?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The madmen are actual sending traffic over a bridge where the “intact” span was lifted and shifted 1 meter off its supports by an explosion less than 24 hours ago.

Ukraine might not need to hit it again, Russia might take care of it themselves.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x960/image_5497d4656143e2867d236a84babc4272939c9a38.jpeg

https://twitter.com/natalkakyiv/status/1681026195360477184?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

ORAC

18th Jul 2023, 06:40

Reference my #2892, it looks like that demolished half of the pier can’t be replaced and one lane is permanently out of action

And with the other shifted a meter sideways but still be used whilst damaged the other may not last long…

I am presuming the “restored” span due to open in November will be the proposed pontoon bridge alongside the destroyed section.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1681012957705109504?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

⚡️Russian official: One part of Crimean Bridge can't be restored.

https://kyivindependent.com/one-part-of-the/

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that one span of the part of the Crimean Bridge for road vehicles is completely destroyed and cannot be restored.…

Khusnullin added (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/07/17/7411743/) that the underwater pillars of the bridge were not damaged by the explosion and that cars should be able to use the bridge again by the early hours of July 18.

However, only one lane will be open. Khusnullin said that it would take until September to restore two-way traffic on one side of the bridge. The side of the traffic that goes toward Kerch in Crimea will take until November to be fully restored….

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1681008602755084289?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

"A temporary bridge of 250 meters long will be built next to the damaged part of the Kerch Bridge," Vice Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Husnullin said.

pasta

18th Jul 2023, 07:04

Looks to me like the pier may not have sustained major damage, but that the decks have been blown off their supports; each deck is a largely independent structure, supported by a pier at each end. An important thing about this is that the entire length of the bridge is vulnerable to repeat attacks, and if Ukraine did it the way I think they did it, the Russians are going to have their work cut out to prevent repeat occurrences.
The railway bridge is presumably a more contiguous (and robust) structure, which will make it a harder nut to crack.

ORAC

18th Jul 2023, 07:26

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1680938647388921857?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Never great for Putin when the Chinese disagree with him like this

China is ready to join the negotiations on the continuation of the Grain Agreement.

"China hopes that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will continue to be balanced and fully implemented," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning added.

Mr Mac

18th Jul 2023, 07:45

Orac
I was in Vienna last week, and noticed a lot of barge traffic on the Danube heading West with what I think was Grain.
I did suggest a good number of months ago that this maybe a get around to a degree for Grain export, but heard this also confirmed on Radio 4 this morning.

The only issue maybe low water levels later in the summer as winter snows were not so heavy last year combined with as we all know a very warm summer in southern/ Central Europe up to press.

Cheers
Mr Mac

ORAC

18th Jul 2023, 07:45

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1681173013973307393?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian army brigade commander Denis Ivanov (call sign Tashkent) has reportedly been eliminated with a drone strike in Ukraine as he was riding in a car. He was frequently cited on Russian state propaganda TV and was revered as "the legendary brigade commander."

fdr

18th Jul 2023, 08:38

The report of damages given to Putler says the railway tracks are damaged as well and it'll be mid September before road traffic may resume. Thats assuming there will be no more attacks of course...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680993220623233029

golly, takes some time for Lord Farquard to write "bavovna"! Is he suffering from lysdexi... listerinexai... lysdexia.... this is dis, lex year?

fdr

18th Jul 2023, 08:55

and then sometimes, you have to stop and be impressed and smile.

Really!, Russia gives is morphed jello apparitions of spoofing, and the Ms M.S. horror show, [THIS IS A CLOROX USE ZONE] Ukraine gives is Richard Attenborough again, again.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1480x2000/f1qjei8aaaad1am_6c96e1d2e3e549fe4e5ba43f6970818282d10b99.jpe g

ORAC

18th Jul 2023, 09:29

Mr Mac,

Shipping grain west via the Danube etc has been a going on since the start of the warr. But ther3 are two problems.

Firstly the capacity is minute compared to the amount possible via ship.

Second, there have been mass protests from European farmers seeing the price drop and bordering east European countries have stopped shipment and imposed quotas and other restrictions against EU regulations and agreements.

e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/17/slovakia-joins-poland-hungary-halting-ukraine-grain-imports

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/23/farmers-from-central-eastern-europe-protest-in-brussels-against-ukrainian-grain-imports

talby33

18th Jul 2023, 09:59

Film of the family in their car on the bridge that got hit, one is through the windscreen but appears conscious, i do not know if that was the survivor, WARNING: viewer discretion advised, only a quote, not a post so it does not come up on the site.

As for some of the comments about the poor girl and losing her family, well my thought go back to the old couple chopped to pieces when they pulled up near a junction and a APC fired into their car, or Bucha…. You play with fire, expect to get burnt, Russia brought this onto themselves, not the other way around.

There are reports are of 25km queues of cars attempting to flee Crimea
Doesn't look like any of those present offered the girl any help or comfort.

Fortyodd2

18th Jul 2023, 11:38

"Doesn't look like any of those present offered the girl any help or comfort".

That's not a priority - Sadly. Far more important to get it all on camera and onto Farcebroke/Twatter/Instercrumb to boost one's own profile :sad:

jolihokistix

18th Jul 2023, 11:48

Doesn't look like any of those present offered the girl any help or comfort.

Are you suggesting it was posed?

Mr Mac

18th Jul 2023, 11:56

Looking at the roadway damage you would think that you could span it with some form of temporary bridging as the main pillar do not look badly damaged. Even if you have to go back onto adjoining spans I do not see that being a big issue.

In fact given previous strike, if it was me I would have pre positioned such equipment because they must know it would be hit again.

Orac
Re barge traffic I don’t think it was stopping in Eastern Europe, but I take your point on grain prices.

Cheers
Mr Mac

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 12:27

I just feel for all those Russians having their holidays curtailed so quickly, I just hope their travel agents can quickly book them into a resort in Syria instead. :p

The reason for all the holidaymakers..... Human shields

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1680997118620864512

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1680997118620864512

artee

18th Jul 2023, 12:33

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 12:35

Well that's laying his cards on the table.

A former Army General of the U.S central command has revealed that the United States will not hesitate to react if Vladimir Putin use nuclear weapons in UkraineDavid Petraeus said all indications have shown Putin is losing in Ukraine, and that won’t stop. “Russian President Vladimir Putin faces an irresistible situation amid the country’s land grab in Ukraine” he told APC News.

“We will respond by leading a NATO effort to take out every Russian conventional force in Ukraine and also un Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea” the former CIA Director emphasized.

Putin had earlier called up 300,000 reservists but the retired American General said all that won’t help Putin. “He’s currently in an irresistibly desperate situation”.

https://news247gh.com/david-petraeus-america-will-destroy-russian-army-if-putin-uses-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine/

hugh flung_dung

18th Jul 2023, 12:48

Well that's laying his cards on the table./ (https://news247gh.com/david-petraeus-america-will-destroy-russian-army-if-putin-uses-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine/)

Nutloose,
You're generally doing a grand job but that link is from 9 months ago, and the recent "Russians are advancing" post was a laughable fake. I thank you for providing all the info that you do, but a little scrutiny might be appropriate before posting things that are clearly old or garbage.

HFD (returning to receive mode)

Video Mixdown

18th Jul 2023, 12:57

Nutloose,
You're generally doing a grand job but that link is from 9 months ago, and the recent "Russians are advancing" post was a laughable fake. I thank you for providing all the info that you do, but a little scrutiny might be appropriate before posting things that are clearly old or garbage.
HFD (returning to receive mode)
I take a different view. I do not believe he should filter content, but present it on this forum for our interest. We can all judge for ourselves what is fake or otherwise. Given the repeated threats to use nuclear weapons by various Russian mouthpieces, I think a reminder of a possible US/NATO response is apposite.

DaveReidUK

18th Jul 2023, 13:36

We can all judge for ourselves what is fake or otherwise.

Clearly we can't all.

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 13:52

Nutloose,
You're generally doing a grand job but that link is from 9 months ago, and the recent "Russians are advancing" post was a laughable fake. I thank you for providing all the info that you do, but a little scrutiny might be appropriate before posting things that are clearly old or garbage.

HFD (returning to receive mode)

Does it being 9 months old make it less relevant?

As for the Russians advancing in the Kupyan region, that contained two separate post from two separate individuals. But hey ho, there are lots of links referring to it.... read below

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1681179239628828673

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1681179239628828673

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 13:59

Mastiff hit by two mines, all survived, looks repairable.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667562027202535424

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667562027202535424

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 14:10

F-16 training heads up

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1681302229414977541

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1681302229414977541

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 14:17

Spunky Monkey

18th Jul 2023, 14:47

Looks llike they are attempting to lift the twisted bridge span and the factory at the other end is open judging by the car park, that was the place that produced the last repairs IIRC

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1681268666912976896

I am always amazed that people are so desperate for "Likes" and attention that they post up to the minute intelligence for the enemy to use.
The Ukrainians are pretty hot on stopping this, but not always successfully. The Russians however are just dumb.
Remembering the old WWII posters, "The Walls Have Ears," the Russians need to start their own campaign.
"Idiots have phones too."

Here's hoping the Ukrainians hit the bridge again soon and take out that crane at the same time. As a crane that powerful will likely be in short supply, with no civi human shields in the way.

antheads

18th Jul 2023, 14:52

russian su-25 crashed in yeysk on the azov sea... the pilot ejected but ended up drowning.

now russians on telegram are bvtthurt that none of the people on shore seemed to care, they just kept on drinking beer and swimming even though there were a lot of jet skis around and an enterprising person could have reached the pilot and helped bring him to shore....

this is the result of conscious russian government policy for 20 years telling people to stay out of politics and don't look out for each other and if you do show initiative you'll be punished....

twitter.com/clashreport/status/1681256017286381569

as for the pilot, I won't say I'm happy he died but at least he won't be attacking any Ukrainian civilians now....

Andrewgr2

18th Jul 2023, 14:58

Oligarchs could pay for the restoration of Kerch bridge - it would be an example of social justice, propagandists think.

I like “we have ways to incentivise these people”! As developed and practiced on the frontline with reluctant conscripts perhaps?

talby33

18th Jul 2023, 15:55

Are you suggesting it was posed?
Not at all.

Beamr

18th Jul 2023, 15:57

I like “we have ways to incentivise these people”! As developed and practiced on the frontline with reluctant conscripts perhaps?
Herr Flick with a new employer, perhaps?

talby33

18th Jul 2023, 16:01

ea200

18th Jul 2023, 16:01

FUMR

18th Jul 2023, 16:25

With regard to the bridge, I am puzzled as to why Ukraine doesn't finish the job? Perhaps I'm naively missing something?

jolihokistix

18th Jul 2023, 16:30

Putin: “If you destroy my bridge…”

The Ukes: “Well, we could, anytime. Mind if we just bend it a little to show you, then?”

soarbum

18th Jul 2023, 16:33

Not sure what you mean by the twisted span? Looks to me as if that crane is connected to the Northern (Westbound) carriageway. They may be trying to shift it back or just to support it to stop it going further.

I'm no expert but that crane does not look hefty enough to me to lift a bridge span, especially angled that far from its base. I think it more likely that they are leaving the offset between sections of the far span as is for now and just dropping some plate steel across the gap so that vehicles can continue to drive over.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1061x599/crane_7ff542170752403a61d02bf713ad51e18f2a1327.jpg

rixt

18th Jul 2023, 16:36

Or a manbasket to do inspection.

Ninthace

18th Jul 2023, 16:41

The naughty boy in me wants to put another bomb under a bit ot the bridge somwhere behind all that plant and leave it marooned.

Andrewgr2

18th Jul 2023, 19:02

The naughty boy in me wants to put another bomb under a bit ot the bridge somwhere behind all that plant and leave it marooned.

I think your bomb might be better placed on the railway line!

meleagertoo

18th Jul 2023, 19:27

I am always amazed that people are so desperate for "Likes" and attention that they post up to the minute intelligence for the enemy to use.<br />The Ukrainians are pretty hot on stopping this, but not always successfully. The Russians however are just dumb. Remembering the old WWII posters, "The Walls Have Ears," the Russians need to start their own campaign. "Idiots have phones too." Personally, I'm always amazed at the self-promoted internet "intelligence expert" Walts who so self-righteously, pompously and delusionally lecture us against anything posted on Twatter etc as "up to the minute intelligence for the enemy to use." In this day and age of satellites and electronic surveillance the last place an "enemy" is ever to find anything operationally useful is on PPRuNe.
Sadly too many "Idiots have phone internet connections too."

Mr Mac

18th Jul 2023, 20:44

Not sure what you mean by the twisted span? Looks to me as if that crane is connected to the Northern (Westbound) carriageway. They may be trying to shift it back or just to support it to stop it going further.
ea200
I would agree with you that the crane in the picture will only be there to stabilise stuff. The bridge I believe was built by using a cradle crane incorporated in the assembly yards and then mobiles and barges going by photos. Therefore taking out cranes could well stop an early fix. Judging by construction photos a few larger cranes will be required.

If it is the case of a cradle in the assembly yard, then taking that out which will be somewhere close on the approach, imaybe useful, as it may not be as well guarded as the bridge itself. It may well require Western tech to operate and even the assembly cranes may well require western tech. However I am sure someone will have looked at that in more detail, who are closer to the action than PPRuNE !

Cheers
Mr Mac

Ninthace

18th Jul 2023, 21:14

I think your bomb might be better placed on the railway line!
That lacks subtlety. It would be fun to see how much heavy plant you could get caught on the bridge. One could do the same trick with the railway and see if you can get a train trapped in the middle.

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 22:16

Wagner were sitting on tons more munitions in Russian warehouses, so much for Prigozhin’s claims they were being starved off the stuff..

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1681332556396916737

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1681332556396916737

NutLoose

18th Jul 2023, 22:37

The story of a captured Russian JCB working for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1676222330794639360

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1676222330794639360

tdracer

19th Jul 2023, 00:03

Wagner were sitting on tons more munitions in Russian warehouses, so much for Prigozhin’s claims they were being starved off the stuff..

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1681332556396916737

That sort of depends on which serial liar you choose to believe.

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 06:00

This is stupid on so many levels - accuracy, cost, time (how long just to design and build a MIRV bus to carry the bombs?)

But everyone wants to get in on the grift.

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1681365386992779264?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russia's space agency Roskosmos is reportedly evaluating options for using space rockets to drop aerial bombs on Ukraine from orbit. The proposal is likely to face serious technical difficulties, not least the risk of bombs burning up from the heat of atmospheric reentry. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1681365386992779264.html

If you have the accuracy you don’t need HE bombs, kinetic energy will do….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment

“In the case of the system mentioned in the 2003 Air Force report above, a 6.1 by 0.3 metres (20 ft × 1 ft) tungsten cylinder impacting at Mach 10 (11,200 ft/s; 3,400 m/s) has kinetic energy equivalent to approximately 11.5 tons of TNT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent) (48 GJ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigajoule)).”

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 06:06

And they have water, food and rest - now imagine the Russian mobiks….

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1681326573243318273?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The heatwave in Ukraine and across Europe is brutal. Heat records have been broken in several places, I think.

And our Defenders do the impossible on the frontlines in this heat, in full body armor that weighs dozens of kilos. Glory to Heroes!

Sfojimbo

19th Jul 2023, 06:14

This is stupid on so many levels - accuracy, cost, time (how long just to design and build a MIRV bus to carry the bombs?)

But everyone wants to get in on the grift.

Russia's space agency Roskosmos is reportedly evaluating options for using space rockets to drop aerial bombs on Ukraine from orbit. The proposal is likely to face serious technical difficulties, not least the risk of bombs burning up from the heat of atmospheric reentry. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1681365386992779264.html

If you have the accuracy you don’t need HE bombs, kinetic energy will do….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment

“In the case of the system mentioned in the 2003 Air Force report above, a 6.1 by 0.3 metres (20 ft × 1 ft) tungsten cylinder impacting at Mach 10 (11,200 ft/s; 3,400 m/s) has kinetic energy equivalent to approximately 11.5 tons of TNT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent) (48 GJ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigajoule)).”Some years back the USAF experimented with the same idea. At the time I was left with the impression that they had a few operational packages available, but I never heard any follow up on the subject.

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 06:25

Which says much about the life expectancy of generals (both at the hands of the Ukrainians and the FSB….)

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1681314678503514118?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

An increasingly desperate Putin now looking for out of date Russian meat for his grinder in Ukraine.

New law passed today allows men who've completed their compulsory service & who don't have exemptions, to be mobilised up to 55 & 70 for senior officers.

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 07:02

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1681365155022532608?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

According to Reuters , will be transferred:

▪️VAMPIRE air defense systems
▪️Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade kamikaze drones
▪️Australian DroneShield anti-drone systems.
▪️radar, sensors and analytical systems
▪️ ammo.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x428/image_a23a3a06326e5074b512785b6973b124f906ca8e.png

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 07:18

Really desperate to prevent grain shipments at source - for fear Turkey will uphold their treaty and protect departing ships from attack?

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1681544701273358337?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Last night #Russia launched one of the most significant attack against Odesa, and particularly the Odesa port, including:
- 16 Kalibr cruise missiles
- 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles
- 6 Onyx coastal missile
- 1 Kh-59 air missile
- 32 Iranian-made "suicide drones" drones

The Ukrainian air force says it intercepted 13 Kalibr cruise missiles, 1 Kh-59 and 23 Iranian-made drones.

NutLoose

19th Jul 2023, 08:03

Propagandists discuss mining the Black Sea to prevent grain movements

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1681348975650127881

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1681348975650127881

Buster Hyman

19th Jul 2023, 08:16

First & foremost, thanks to all who are looking through many sources to provide genuine links for data & 'tweets' on this thread. It's certainly my main source of information & I can only imagine how much effort goes into this!

Having said that, there's a whiff of 'click bait' to some comments with a link & I was hoping there could be more to go on than "This is interesting" Nutty's doing a sterling job supplying warnings on some of the grim links & whilst I appreciate a witty comment, just a little more about what we're going to be looking at would be most appreciated.

Thank you.

:ok:

fdr

19th Jul 2023, 09:31

I am always amazed that people are so desperate for "Likes" and attention that they post up to the minute intelligence for the enemy to use.
The Ukrainians are pretty hot on stopping this, but not always successfully. The Russians however are just dumb.
Remembering the old WWII posters, "The Walls Have Ears," the Russians need to start their own campaign.
"Idiots have phones too."

Here's hoping the Ukrainians hit the bridge again soon and take out that crane at the same time. As a crane that powerful will likely be in short supply, with no civi human shields in the way.

Prefer: Remembering the old WWII posters, "The Walls Have Ears," the Russians need to start their own campaign.
"please make sure that every one of our Ruzzian idiots have phones too."

(never let a chance go by)

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 09:54

If the rest of the tanks, armour and AD systems now being bright forward are in the same state…

Same story as being to,d repeatedly - depots being paid to maintain and recondition kit pocketing the money, slapping on some paint and just shipping it to the fron to be destroyed and eliminating the evidence. Pity about the troops who receive it….

Video states that the repair time estimate, even for the units where that is seen as possible, is between a month and a year…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1681569162684932096?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian AA/artillery unit received 6 Tunguska air defence vehicles from MoD, likely from long conservation followed by major repairs - as a result, all six vehicles are disfunctional.

In the full version of the video, the reporter states that upon reception, three vehicles were running but after a 30-km march all broke down with major suspension problems, another two suffer from armament control system malfunctions, and a sixth is too dangerous to even start.

None of the six transport-reloading vehicles (TZM) were functional either.

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 09:59

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1681413004586303490?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

⚡Poland transfers forces to eastern border as Wagner convoys enter Belarus.

Two Polish brigades have been transferred from the west of the country to locations near the border with Belarus, Polish defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak said on July 18.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1681424617024487424?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

At least 3 Convoys of Wagner PMC Equipment and Personnel are reporting to have entered the Territory of Belarus today from Western Russia, the 1st Convoy consisted of roughly 80+ Vehicles, the 2nd Convoy was around 90+ Vehicles, and the 3rd had at least 100 Pieces of Equipment ranging from Technicals to Vans; these Convoys likely contain Thousands if not Tens of Thousands of Wagner Fighters which will now be Based in Belarus.

ORAC

19th Jul 2023, 10:09

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1681600788907409409?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Reuters published photos of the explosions at a military training ground in Crimea. The local Russian authorities say that the explosions are still going on.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x853/image_aa7772f06957a2b6e48792b427ea72769f21aa15.jpeg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/853x1280/image_53534a200f4cb63a42f3d6d15d84c25a3e8b5eff.jpeg

fdr

19th Jul 2023, 10:24

somedays, the world seems to grow a conscience....

e.g. Turkish delight - Turkey continuing the grain trade

Lucky Luciachenko - luck running out on war crimes

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x450/f1wcwvawyaeenuy_1b408900e0e2bf8f40691d82c2f19ec4901d57a6.png

https://t.co/13ZfqIfTeA

NutLoose

19th Jul 2023, 11:05

Reuters published photos of the explosions at a military training ground in Crimea. The local Russian authorities say that the explosions are still going on.

Wow, they really do go out of their way to make the training as realistic as possible. :p

Sfojimbo

19th Jul 2023, 11:07

The town of Stary Krym in Crimea has a problem. In fact, the entire town of 2,000 has been evacuated because the ammo dump next door has gone off. Highway P-23 has been shut down too.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66242446
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-military-base-crimea-major-highway-closed-russia-backed-governor-2023-07-19/

BTW Stary Krym is only 15 miles from the Feodosia S-400 site, it doesn't look like those S-400s are doing their job very well.

NutLoose

19th Jul 2023, 11:11

Ammo dump hit last night in Crimea and still burning.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1681572437224202242

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1681572437224202242

petit plateau

19th Jul 2023, 11:29

ZNPP update

"In its latest update on the situation at what is Ukraine and Europe's largest nuclear power plant, and which has been under Russian control since March 2022, the IAEA said that the steam generated from the one unit - currently unit 5 - in hot shutdown, is used "for various nuclear safety purposes including the processing of liquid radioactive waste collected in storage tanks".The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine issued regulatory orders last month for all six units to be placed in cold shutdown, given its situation on the frontline of the war, and the breaching of the dam that had helped ensure plentiful cooling water supplies.The Russian operators of the plant say such a move is not required from a "legal or technological point of view" and the IAEA said the plant's operators are currently preparing to move unit 4 from cold shutdown to hot shutdown, after which unit 5 will be placed in cold shutdown "to carry out preventative maintenance activities that are only possible in cold shutdown".

The IAEA added that its experts stationed at the plant "are strongly encouraging the ZNPP to investigate all possible options to install an external boiler to generate the steam required, which would enable the site to bring all units into a cold shutdown state"."

etc

https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IAEA-strongly-encouraging-options-to-allow-cold-sh