Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[ORAC]

Strange how we are asked to feel outraged at one Russian bomber crewman being shot in the street, but would applaud 30+ being killed simultaneously by a Storm Shadow strike during an attack on their base HQ during a mission planning brief…

[ORAC]

What goes around, comes around…https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1754417310075400298?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


HIMARS strike on hospitality venue "Adriatika" in occupied Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast on 3 February "destroyed dozens of "LPR" officials, including emergency services Minister Aleksey Potelshenko, public prosecutors, policemen, local deputies and defectors".

According to Russian sources, the strike was adjusted by someone present at the venue or nearby, knowing the positions of the attendees.

The information about the strike emerged on Russian news channels with the context that it was a random civilian bakery that was attacked.

Official news present this as a strike against civilians, however, leaks from smaller Russian channels reveal that it was a congregation of big local names that was targeted. A birthday party was being held there. However, it is claimed that some civilians, perhaps relatives of the officials, were also casualties of this strike.

There are names of the targets floating about but these are not confirmed.

Ukraine did not take responsibility for this strike. Claims that HIMARS missiles were used come from the Russian side.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x721/image_6f1539e09deb7438ceeb8797796031b187c37fd7.png
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

If a pilot who has committed multiple war crimes is killed to stop him bombing any more innocent civilians, I would call that an execution. You can call it what you wish.


Nuremburg saw the Nazi heads tried for warcrimes and executed, who is to say Ukraine never held a trail for his war crimes in his absence, found him guilty and executed him.

[ORAC]

Nuremburg saw the Nazi heads tried for warcrimes and executed, who is to say Ukraine never held a trail for his war crimes in his absence, found him guilty and executed him.
Executed? He was a member of the military who was killed by the enemy - that fact that he was shot in the street is no different than if he had been hit by a drone on the battlefield. With, I might add, no collateral damage which a drone or bomb would have inflicted.

[ORAC]

Russian soldier fatally wounded by a drone dropped incendiary salutes the drone operator before he dies.

Warning, graphic content.

https://x.com/albafella1/status/1753939869636653264?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

I believe that's a question to be answered by those who have lost loved ones to the indiscriminate acts of an aggressor.
It's not for the likes of us to decide. Imagine having Putin in the crosshairs. Would you hesitate?
Not a fair comparison. Obviously Putin is the instigator of all this pain and suffering and would be a valid target, and even if not valid his removal could bring the end of hostilities so I think the moral question is answered for us.

[ORAC]

Danish Defense Intelligence Service threat assessment finds it “very likely” that Russia intends to use actual military means to challenge NATO.

Previous assessment was it would only use hybrid capabilities.
​​​​​​​https://x.com/nukestrat/status/1754191652053221496?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://www.berlingske.dk/politik/ny-fe-trusselsvurdering-rusland-har-intention-om-at-bruge-militaere

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1160x2000/image_d5ccee5819938f318449829355c36340189e0fc9.png

[langleybaston]

No, it does not. The pilots you refer to were invariably captured and, consequently, 'hors de combat' for the duration. These pilots were, no doubt, about to embark on further missions, raining death and destruction on innocent civilians. I have no sympathy whatsoever. There is also the psyops effect to consider - if it makes one other bomber pilot think twice about deliberately missing a target or defecting then that is an added bonus.

Only captured if it was an away game! Otherwise recycled.

[NutLoose]

Executed? He was a member of the military who was killed by the enemy - that fact that he was shot in the street is no different than if he had been hit by a drone on the battlefield. With, I might add, no collateral damage which a drone or bomb would have inflicted.

I was countering Sallyann's argument in that if you want to go the execution route, it has basis in history, I believe as already said he was a legitimate target.

[Spunky Monkey]

The question of the killing of a Russian Combatant is surely for the pages of the Jet Blast Thread.
Although I would like to add, that my concern with a couple of comments has to do with the fact that he was killed outside of the base in Russia.

It would seem that the Western Political narrative that killing Russians inside of Russia is an escalation and must therefore stymie the Ukrainian war effort.
This is being gamed by the Russians and those who lack fortitude.
Lets be really honest with each other here, the Russians are calling it an SMO...it isn't its a War.
A war of survival for the Ukrainians.
Taking the War to the homes of Russian servicemen is a big wake up call to the Russians.
We applaud our spies in the 1940s in occupied Europe, we should also me applauding the SF teams deep in Russia.
Slava Ukraini

[Ninthace]

So does that make those that shot the pilot terrorists, insurgents or freedom fighters?

[ORAC]

“In future packages of military assistance, Ukraine is looking for F-16 aircraft equipped with missiles with a range of 300-500 kilometers” .- Commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sergiy Naev.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/naev-anonsuvav-nadhodzhennya-ukrayinu-litakiv-1707120121.html

[rattman]

“In future packages of military assistance, Ukraine is looking for F-16 aircraft equipped with missiles with a range of 300-500 kilometers” .- Commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sergiy Naev.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/naev-anonsuvav-nadhodzhennya-ukrayinu-litakiv-1707120121.html

Not sure that weapon actually exists. JASSM is only one and cant see the US giving up any of those, unless they are going use storm shadow / scalp instead of the SU-24's

[melmothtw]

Not sure that weapon actually exists. JASSM is only one and cant see the US giving up any of those, unless they are going use storm shadow / scalp instead of the SU-24's

Taurus

[ORAC]

JASSM-ER has been on their wish list since the start.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/arms_for_ukrainian_f_16_jassm_missiles_of_370_km_range_in_pr iority_forbes-7713.html

US has already approved it’s sale to Poland….

https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-jassm-er-support

[BANANASBANANAS]

Only captured if it was an away game! Otherwise recycled.

Not if, typically, the Resistance got to them first!

[langleybaston]

Not if, typically, the Resistance got to them first!

Not much Resistance in Deutschland

[Pali]

So does that make those that shot the pilot terrorists, insurgents or freedom fighters?

Russians will call them terrorists. If commando consisted of Russians, we may call them insurgents. If they are Russians with Ukrainian nationality, they are guerrillas. If they are infiltrated Ukrainians who secretly passed the border, they are probably special forces.
Of course we talk about deeds on the verge of legality because combatants are supposed to wear uniforms, but given the fact that pilot was engaged in fulfilling illegal orders to attack civilians repeatedly, we may agree that this is somehow acceptable. If he would be killed by a car bomb along with his wife and kids, we would probably condemn it.

[NutLoose]

Russians will call them terrorists. If commando consisted of Russians, we may call them insurgents. If they are Russians with Ukrainian nationality, they are guerrillas. If they are infiltrated Ukrainians who secretly passed the border, they are probably special forces.
Of course we talk about deeds on the verge of legality because combatants are supposed to wear uniforms, but given the fact that pilot was engaged in fulfilling illegal orders to attack civilians repeatedly, we may agree that this is somehow acceptable. If he would be killed by a car bomb along with his wife and kids, we would probably condemn it.

I didn't see any qualms about the fact they sent people over the kill Reinhard Heydrich on his drive to work. Both were involved in the murder of innocents, all be it one on a larger scale.

[NutLoose]

Shows how bad things are becoming.

A Ukrainian military leader is asking Canada to hand over tens of thousands of rockets that are awaiting demolition at a Saskatchewan military base.

In an exclusive interview with Global News, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov urged the government to let Ukraine (https://globalnews.ca/tag/ukraine/) have the decommissioned CRV7 rockets.

Doing so would help Ukraine fend off Russian forces and save taxpayers the cost of destroying them, said Lt. Gen. Budanov, chief of the Ukrainian defence ministry’s intelligence directorate (https://gur.gov.ua/en.html).

“We hope it will be a win-win situation,” he said.

More than 83,000 CRV7 ground attack rockets are warehoused at Canadian Forces Ammunition Depot Dundurn, south of Saskatoon.

While Canada no longer has any use for them, and has selected a private contractor to demolish them, Ukraine says it urgently needs them as its supplies (https://globalnews.ca/news/10141525/ukraine-russia-summer-counteroffensive-review/) of munitions diminish.

Lt. Gen. Budanov said the CRV7s would be used both in Ukrainian attack helicopters and ground launchers to target Russian (https://globalnews.ca/tag/russia/) tanks and artillery.

Ukraine has been discussing the issue with Canada but is still awaiting a decision, he said.

Canadian officials said they were looking into the request, but cautioned the CRV7s are decades old and could have become unstable, rendering them dangerous to handle and transport.

The Ukrainians argue they are in a dire predicament and are willing to assume the risks. They said they are accustomed to handling older munitions like the CRV7s.

“We have no concerns,” Lt. Gen. Budanov said.

Two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his disastrous invasion, Ukraine is desperately trying to replenish its military arsenal, particularly with munitions.

With neither side holding superiority in the air, the conflict has largely become an artillery battle and the Ukrainians have been scouring the world for whatever supplies they can find.

They believe that about 8,000 of the Canadian rockets are in pristine condition and that some are still fitted with warheads.

Those rockets that are no longer functional will be stripped of their parts for use in Ukraine’s drone program, the officials said.

“We need a lot of equipment, both ammunition, munitions in general, artillery munitions — lots of types of equipment,” Lt. Gen. Budanov said through an interpreter.

A Canadian military spokesperson acknowledged that 83,303 rockets — most of them tubes with rocket motors but no warheads — were awaiting disposal by a contractor.

Aside from concerns about whether they could be safely airlifted, giving them to Ukraine would mean breaking the contract with the disposal company, which has been building a special facility for the job.

Experts canvassed by Global News said rocket propellent had a limited lifespan and could become unstable after so many years.

But since the CRV7s use a solid fuel, they may still be safe, provided they had been stored properly and not exposed to moisture or contamination.

The issue arose in Ottawa on Friday, when the Conservatives (https://www.conservative.ca/trudeau-must-send-crv7-rockets-to-ukraine/) said the Canadian military was sitting on the stockpile of rockets.“Instead of making Canadians pay millions of dollars to decommission these weapons, common sense Conservatives are calling on the Trudeau government to give these weapons to Ukraine who can use them in the defence of their sovereignty,” the party said in a statement.

The Liberals (https://x.com/mflalonde/status/1753506700550689170?s=20) accused Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre of “trying to cover up his weak stance on Ukraine by distracting Canadians.”

Defence Minister Bill Blair’s spokesperson said the government was “pursuing testing to ensure that this equipment is operationally effective and safe to transport to Ukraine before any potential donation.”

Ukrainian officials were disappointed to see the issue become politicized.

“Please send it to us as quickly as possible,” said the Ukrainian colonel who leads the team preparing to take possession of the CRV7s. He spoke on the condition he would not be named.

The Canadian Rocket Vehicle, or CRV7, was manufactured by Winnipeg-based Bristol Aerospace and became the NATO standard.

“The power behind the CRV7 is the propellant,” Magellan Aerospace (https://magellan.aero/product/rockets/crv-7/), which took over Bristol, said on its website. “CRV7 is longer range, faster time to target, and superior accuracy.”

Although Canada used CRV7s on aircraft like CF18s, Lt. Gen. Budanov said Ukraine had ground launchers capable of firing them.

Lt. Gen. Budanov, whose wife is recovering after she was allegedly poisoned by Russia, said the rockets would be used as the equivalent of field artillery.

Canadian veterans were working with Ukraine to help with the project, he added.

Asked if he was concerned that Ukraine’s allies were losing interest in the conflict after two years, he said, “It’s not a TV show, to be interested or not. It’s war.”

The Canadian government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance (https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html) to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24 2022.

That includes missiles as well as ammunition for small arms, artillery and battle tanks. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised Ukraine “unwavering support.”

But at a news conference in December, President Voldomyr Zelensky acknowledged his forces were running low of artillery shells.

That is where Canada’s CRV7s come in.

In 2021, the Canadian Armed Forces sought bidders for a contract (https://canadabuys.canada.ca/en/tender-opportunities/tender-notice/pw-bk-383-28232?title=&order=title&sort=asc) to “collect, transport, destroy, demilitarize, recycle and dispose of” the CRV7s.

“The entire inventory of rocket motors was shelf-life expired and declared surplus in 2000,” the military said at the time.

“It was removed from the DND/CAF serviceable inventory in 2005 and made available for disposal by destruction.”

There are three types of rockets, according to the contract details: those fully intact and still packaged in their original shipping tube and boxes; scrap motors; and inert dummies.

A Canadian advisor to the Ukrainian military said she was rebuffed when she first approached Ottawa about giving the rockets to Ukraine instead of demolishing them.

“I was told that Canada has looked at it and decided it doesn’t have any value,” Kate McKenna, said.

McKenna started a petition (https://www.change.org/p/urge-the-canadian-government-to-donate-scheduled-for-disposal-crv7-rockets-to-ukraine) on the issue last December. The fact that Canada was sitting on the munitions “makes me kind of a bit salty,” she said.

“The rockets themselves are made up of a number of parts, including, the casing, the rocket fuel, the motor,” the former British Columbia resident said.

“Each one of those components can be repurposed by the Ukrainians. They are incredibly valuable,” said McKenna.

Ukraine has made similar appeals for junked military equipment to other countries, including Australia, which has 45 retired MRH-90 helicopters that Ukraine wants.

But Australia has deemed them unsafe, and intends to disassemble and bury the choppers, arguing getting them into working condition would be too costly.

“You don’t get to tell Ukraine what is or isn’t a good risk,” McKenna responded. “There are no good risks. Ukrainians are dying and we need to just be brave.”

“Trust Ukraine, trust them to make use of every single piece of that rocket, please. And Ukraine is ready to send over a team,” she said.“They know what they’re doing.”




https://globalnews.ca/news/10271532/ukraine-general-canada-crv7-rockets/

[NutLoose]

Ukraines new drone and they are already looking at making it NATO compatible.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754543118081302786

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754543118081302786

[NutLoose]

The Netherlands are adding another 6 F-16's to the ones they are sending Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1754498482914640082

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1754498482914640082

[DirtyProp]

So does that make those that shot the pilot terrorists, insurgents or freedom fighters?

I guess it depends which side you're on.

[Geriaviator]

If it's wrong to shoot the pilot on the street, is it wrong to shoot him two days later as he enters the base from which he takes off to bomb civilians in Ukraine, is it wrong to shoot him with a lucky rifle round through the canopy as he takes off? If so, what's the difference?

[T28B]

For those interested:
the recent news about Hungary, and Sweden's NATO inclusion, has been moved to the Russia vs NATO thread here on the Military Aviation forum.
Please take extra effort to stay on topic.
Thank you all in advance.
T28B

[Badger3434]

There's another aspect of this 'can we shoot a pilot in the street' debate that troubles me. Amongst the many distressing videos of troops (both sides) being killed/injured by drones, what I find particlulary hard to digest are the videos where troops plainly trying to remove an injured colleague from the battelefield are then themselves hit by further drones.Is that because they have no Red Cross markings...? What happened to the Red Cross symbol in this conflict? Have we all gone beyond respecting the evacuation of the wounded?

[langleybaston]

There's another aspect of this 'can we shoot a pilot in the street' debate that troubles me. Amongst the many distressing videos of troops (both sides) being killed/injured by drones, what I find particlulary hard to digest are the videos where troops plainly trying to remove an injured colleague from the battelefield are then themselves hit by further drones.Is that because they have no Red Cross markings...? What happened to the Red Cross symbol in this conflict? Have we all gone beyond respecting the evacuation of the wounded?

A good point, But I fear Ukr and Ruz have entered what used to be called "savage warfare" in the days of Empire.
Under those [and only those] circumstances the RAMC and its predecessors were musketry-trained and armed. Thus on the NW frontier and against Zulus and Mahdists and other warriors if a wounded man could not be evacuated his best option was to save the last round for himself. In "European Warfare" protection of the RAMC was the task of the ASC component of Field Ambulances, and only the doctors had a pistol.

Returning to the present, I don't think either adversary makes much use of a Geneva Cross ............... the Convention is meaningless to the Orcs.

[Tartiflette Fan]

There's another aspect of this 'can we shoot a pilot in the street' debate that troubles me. Amongst the many distressing videos of troops (both sides) being killed/injured by drones, what I find particlulary hard to digest are the videos where troops plainly trying to remove an injured colleague from the battelefield are then themselves hit by further drones.Is that because they have no Red Cross markings...? What happened to the Red Cross symbol in this conflict? Have we all gone beyond respecting the evacuation of the wounded?

"Have we all gone beyond respecting the evacuation of the wounded..................... where troops plainly trying to remove an injured colleague from the battelefield are then themselves hit by further drones."

It has long been a tactic to wound a soldier in the hopes of drawing out more soldiers to rescue him and then shooting as many as possible. . You are correct in saying that Red Cross-marked medics seem to be totally absent, although I don't think many Russians would respect the markings.

[dctyke]

"Have we all gone beyond respecting the evacuation of the wounded..................... where troops plainly trying to remove an injured colleague from the battelefield are then themselves hit by further drones."

It has long been a tactic to wound a soldier in the hopes of drawing out more soldiers to rescue him and then shooting as many as possible. . You are correct in saying that Red Cross-marked medics seem to be totally absent, although I don't think many Russians would respect the markings.

For that very reason we have always had bombs with time delay fuses, fact of war I’m afraid.

[ORAC]

“France is ready to supply Ukraine with the latest generation of weapons, such as SCALP missiles and new generation bombs, and this commitment will obviously increase, but not only in terms of the allocated finances, but also in terms of the nature of the weapons, which obviously must be of the highest standard necessary for Ukrainians to be able to defend themselves”

Prime Minister of France Gabriel Attal

[BANANASBANANAS]

Not much Resistance in Deutschland

I think we are at cross purposes here. The removal from the battlefield of a Russian pilot by any means has to be a good thing. In the last big conflict, if any pilot was shot down over enemy territory he would either be 'dealt with' by resistance/vigilantes or be hors de combat for the duration. If he came down over friendly territory he would very likely be returned to flying duties as soon as he was fit - which surely reinforces the case for taking out pilots just as Ukraine appears to be now doing?

[Tartiflette Fan]

“France is ready to supply Ukraine with the latest generation of weapons, such as SCALP missiles and new generation bombs, and this commitment will obviously increase, but not only in terms of the allocated finances, but also in terms of the nature of the weapons, which obviously must be of the highest standard necessary for Ukrainians to be able to defend themselves”

Prime Minister of France Gabriel Attal

Let us hope this is more than the usual politicians' hot-air: whatever increase does come from France, it will be from a very low level. From memory their aid is valued in the low hundreds of millions of Euros so far. Probably less than several small Baltic/Scandinavian states, and definitely less than NL.

[rattman]

Taurus

Possibly but more likely in my opinion to SLAM-ER, taurus could be an option

[Lonewolf_50]

“France is ready to supply Ukraine with the latest generation of weapons, such as SCALP missiles and new generation bombs, and this commitment will obviously increase, but not only in terms of the allocated finances, but also in terms of the nature of the weapons, which obviously must be of the highest standard necessary for Ukrainians to be able to defend themselves”

Prime Minister of France Gabriel Attal
Where was this spirit in March of 2022?
On the other hand, every little bit helps.

[NutLoose]

More on Russian advances now Ukraine are short of ammunition due to actions elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754641055578788167

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754641055578788167

[NutLoose]

Blimey, you want to listen to this guys story.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754153190776336894

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754153190776336894

[nomorecatering]

Why are we trying to re-invent the wheel with drones. The Germans showed us the way in WW2.

Surely we can mass produce a V1 type bomb powerd by 1 or 2 RC model engines. Give a GPS guidance module and an autopilot.The Russians may be able to defend against 3 or 4 drones, but not 100 of them all at once. For the oil terminals we really need warheads in the 500lb class. What if we could make them in the thousands?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EEZuXQyA-E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYmFHE8caiQ

[EDLB]

Luckily for the Brits in WW2 there where no GPS and cameras to guide those V1. For the enormous mechanical effort on their crude gyro guidance system they where fairly ineffective hitting random fields. With enough speed from above you could tip the V1 wings and get the gyros out of range.
I don't think that we need to teach the Ukraines about drone making. They are very good at that.

[skua]

Munitions shortages beginning to bite. And Trump's evil strategy:
https://www.ft.com/content/18c5296a-f0d5-47d5-aacd-af5210d638fc?sharetype=blocked

[NutLoose]

Something changing in Belarus?, the law has been changed to allow the Army to shoot at civilians.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754782099658166583

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754782099658166583

[NutLoose]

WOW, A Russian Lieutenant General no less

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1754598131390394576

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1754598131390394576

[NutLoose]

Some details being released of previous operations.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1754846557675929668

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1754846557675929668

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile in Moscow.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1754812959056867328

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1754812959056867328

[NutLoose]

The CIA's latest advert aimed at Russians.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1751372540923293823

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1751372540923293823

[ORAC]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-cost-of-shahed-136-for-russia-has-been-reported/

The cost of Shahed-136 for Russia has been reported

A group of hackers from the Prana Network hacked into the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of data on the production of Shahed-136 loitering munitions for Russia.

The Prana Network hacker group hacked the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of data on the production of Shahed-136 loitering munitions for Russia.

The data was published (https://irancybernews.org/irgc-front-company-sahara-thunder-hacked-by-prana-network/) online.…

At the same time, the cost of sale, that is, the price at which they will be transferred to the customer, will be RUB 14.9 million ($165.5 thousand). This gap is probably due to the mortgaged payments for linear production, additional costs, and investments in the enterprise….

According to other published documents, at least part of Russia’s financial transactions and payments with Iran are made in gold.

For example, in February 2023, the Alabuga Machinery organization transferred 2,067,795 grams of gold bullion to the Iranian shell company Sahara Thunder, presumably as payment for services and goods.

[Wokkafans]

"Effective trench cleaning by Azov Brigade in Serebryansky Forest. They're promising a full video tomorrow"

https://Twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755007729305825582?s=20

https://Twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755007729305825582?s=20

[ORAC]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1266x1006/image_17f6b6139be843b5aece2c19168cbd8d154ba613.png

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1754923518368637153?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


A large network of FSB agents was uncovered in Ukraine: it included employees of Ukrainian special services

A total of five traitors were detained. Among them were former employees of the State Security Service of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, as well as an employee of the regional department of the Security Service of Ukraine.

The agents provided the Russians with intelligence on the Ukrainian armed forces, strategically important energy facilities, Ukrainian fortifications and many other information.

​​​​​​​

[FUMR]

"Effective trench cleaning by Azov Brigade in Serebryansky Forest. They're promising a full video tomorrow"

https://Twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755007729305825582?s=20

Watching that, I'm not surprised they are allegedly running out of ammo!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1755140210667512187?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Russians report that Ukraine has begun using new kamikaze jet drones with high-explosive warheads.

In their publications, they note the rather high-quality assembly of the product, and also show the warhead itself (photos 3-4) and the German JetCat P400-PRO jet engine (photo 5), which costs 10 thousand euros.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x910/image_10f98e75e39855b80dc7fa6b818432d2b01d7708.png

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/540x530/image_656c561ce219a01b4ed5108695f506eea0917a98.png
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-cost-of-shahed-136-for-russia-has-been-reported/

The cost of Shahed-136 for Russia has been reported

A group of hackers from the Prana Network hacked into the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of data on the production of Shahed-136 loitering munitions for Russia.

The Prana Network hacker group hacked the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of data on the production of Shahed-136 loitering munitions for Russia.

The data was published (https://irancybernews.org/irgc-front-company-sahara-thunder-hacked-by-prana-network/) online.…

At the same time, the cost of sale, that is, the price at which they will be transferred to the customer, will be RUB 14.9 million ($165.5 thousand). This gap is probably due to the mortgaged payments for linear production, additional costs, and investments in the enterprise….

According to other published documents, at least part of Russia’s financial transactions and payments with Iran are made in gold.

For example, in February 2023, the Alabuga Machinery organization transferred 2,067,795 grams of gold bullion to the Iranian shell company Sahara Thunder, presumably as payment for services and goods.

Isn't publishing online counter productive? They will plug the hole.

[NutLoose]

Son fighting father on opposite sides of the war and have engaged each other supposedly.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640

[NutLoose]

:(


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/868x882/gfujp8fxuaalx3h_38911c8efd58e6d8605ca1a794405c5bec8ea60d.png

[NutLoose]

Finnish Ammunition plant to increase production 5 fold.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1754409046289908054

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1754409046289908054

[NutLoose]

A surrendering Russian.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1752626223191302464

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1752626223191302464

[NutLoose]

So totally surreal and unbelievable

https://twitter.com/KitKlarenberg/status/1752806253368127602

https://twitter.com/KitKlarenberg/status/1752806253368127602

[NutLoose]

Ecuador to hand over six anti aircraft systems to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754993228942630952

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754993228942630952

[NutLoose]

US and Greece are working on a deal to transfer 60 Bradley's to Ukraine, there is a loophole where the President can donate equipment to countries I believe, and they are working on donating some stuff Greece may need, heck maybe even Bradley's in exchange for them donating the items they have...same goes for Ecuador.

https://twitter.com/bjones7774/status/1755032244480331884

https://twitter.com/bjones7774/status/1755032244480331884

[NutLoose]

Some updates on the fronts.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981025954824243

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981025954824243

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981022666514440

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981022666514440

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981019529170997

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754981019529170997

[NutLoose]

Interesting interview with the Sea drones that Ukraine are using and with the operator .

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754950400891858969

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754950400891858969

[NutLoose]

Thanks, we'll have that..

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754856652900126763

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1754856652900126763

[NutLoose]

The latest picture of Myria :( Progress has been made and one hopes the removed parts are being worked on.

https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1751069292408275232/photo/1

https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1751069292408275232/photo/1

[The Helpful Stacker]

Watching that, I'm not surprised they are allegedly running out of ammo!

In your opinion, how many rounds would you say is enough to put into a dugout you neither know the size of, nor how many people it may contain?

It's easy to criticise when it's not you doing the trench clearing.

[DogTailRed2]

The latest picture of Myria :( Progress has been made and one hopes the removed parts are being worked on.



https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1751069292408275232/photo/1

My understanding is there is a second airframe so presumably they are looking at the wreck to salvage parts for that. I doubt this airframe is salvageable?

[Thorley1969]

The latest picture of Myria :( Progress has been made and one hopes the removed parts are being worked on.



https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1751069292408275232/photo/1
Jokes about speed tape in 3...2...1...

[GlobalNav]

Jokes about speed tape in 3...2...1...
Boeing might be of help. :rolleyes:

[NutLoose]

A Bradley hits an anti tank mine, manages to back up a bit, expend their ammo at the target then abandon it.

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1755267975035203723

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1755267975035203723

[NutLoose]

Inside a YPR-765 when it is hit, the other one retreats and the crew of the first leave on foot.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1755253105346617676

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1755253105346617676

[ORAC]

Now that’s a nice big explosion…

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1755287772863103265?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Russia - massive bavovna! 🔥

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1755236176695304265?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Two of the five missiles fired by Russian forces at Kharkiv in the morning were North Korean KN-23, by preliminary conclusions - Serhii Bolvinov, head of the regional police investigation department. He showed a photo of the fragments.

"The metal fragments of the ballistic missiles were collected by explosives experts on the territory of the industrial zone. Preliminary conclusions of experts are that these are North Korean HVASON 11GA (KN-23) missiles," he wrote.

Russia and the DPRK officially deny supplying ballistic missiles for use by the Kremlin in the war in Ukraine.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1755267846488064138?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


In Dniprovskyi District in Kyiv, the alleged remains of a 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were found.

Russia claims the 3M22 Zircon can travel at Mach 9, or about 6,900 mph which makes it hard to shoot down. It is one of the newest cruise missiles, designed for both naval and land targets, the Russian navy took into service in 2023….

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x698/image_2b9cac74a6b49bde62527b36d62bb4d4d906e981.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Reference #8322

”Ministry of Defense of Russia officially announced that the cause of the explosion in Izhevsk was "technical work at the Votkin Machine-Building Plant" 😂

🚀 There Russia produces the sea-based ICBM, Bulava-30 (SS-NX-30) and Topol-M (SS-27 Sickle B)…

[ORAC]

French minister of defence:

@SebLecornu : "Nous sommes passés d'une logique de cession sur les stocks de nos armées à une logique de production pour continuer de soutenir l'armée ukrainienne". Le ministre des Armées affirme que "la reprise de la production par nos industriels est en cours"

La réduction des délais de production de nos industriels est en cours et profite à l'Ukraine :

Radar de @thalesgroup ▶ de 24 à 6 mois
Canon Caesar de @NexterKNDS ▶ de 30 à 15 mois
Missile Mistral de @MBDAFrance ▶ de 24 à 15 mois
Obus de 155mm ▶ de 1000 à 3000 par mois

[artee]

French minister of defence:

@SebLecornu : "Nous sommes passés d'une logique de cession sur les stocks de nos armées à une logique de production pour continuer de soutenir l'armée ukrainienne". Le ministre des Armées affirme que "la reprise de la production par nos industriels est en cours"

La réduction des délais de production de nos industriels est en cours et profite à l'Ukraine :

Radar de @thalesgroup ▶ de 24 à 6 mois
Canon Caesar de @NexterKNDS ▶ de 30 à 15 mois
Missile Mistral de @MBDAFrance ▶ de 24 à 15 mois
Obus de 155mm ▶ de 1000 à 3000 par mois
Courtesy of Google Translate:

“We have moved from a logic of transfer of the stocks of our armies to a logic of production to continue to support the Ukrainian army.” The Minister of the Armed Forces affirms that “the resumption of production by our manufacturers is underway”

The reduction in production times of our manufacturers is underway and benefits Ukraine

[Uberteknik]

Now that’s a nice big explosion…



Izhevsk, Udmurtia, Russia - massive bavovna! 🔥
Russkies nearby certainly need wads of it to plug ears. Probably explains their apathy to the SMO.

[NutLoose]

Don't you just love Russian business men..

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755344439759794379

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755344439759794379

[ORAC]

https://x.com/historicfirearm/status/1755501942720078293?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​First daylight in-theatre sighting of a UK-supplied AIM-132 ASRAAM-based air defence system mounted on a Supacat HMT truck.

[NutLoose]

One of the good guys.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755127787340665114

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755127787340665114

[DirtyProp]

One of the good guys.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755127787340665114

As a European citizen I think we need to help and accept those Russians that want nothing to do with their fascist, criminal regime.

[langleybaston]

As a European citizen I think we need to help and accept those Russians that want nothing to do with their fascist, criminal regime.

Yes But.

A matter of priorities. Russia has had for ever to attempt to become a democracy. Good luck with that I fear.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755401721117814945

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755401721117814945

[NutLoose]

Another KA-52 downed near Avdiivka

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1755551801615495182

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1755551801615495182

[NutLoose]

Speaking of which, Russia has sent tens of thousands of Russians to storm the city.

https://twitter.com/Veteransforukr1/status/1755550779459436590

https://twitter.com/Veteransforukr1/status/1755550779459436590

[NutLoose]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/720x711/gfzfe1vxsaa0y5t_7294a33ad1f9e01a041f3a09c17305ea4ab454a2.jpg

[NutLoose]

I am at a loss on how to justify this, these people are dying because of a few elected people in the west, who are more self interested than anything else.
How to snatch defeat from victory, from a position of strength with the means and well fortified positions to extract maximum amount of damage and losses on the Russian forces, to a point where Ukraine is fighting for their lives and people are dying because of the lack of munitions and supplies.. This is rapidly turning into Ukraines "Bridge to Far".

I dread to think of the horrors that are about to be inflicted on the women and children in the major cities when the likes of the Patriot and other systems start to run dry of missiles.

Does the west not understand that the place to stop Russia's ambitions and goals is IN Ukraine. Without Ukraine, Russia will probably try it on in one of the smaller NATO states and if the response is as nonsensical as the current state of affairs and NATO stalls in it's response and ponders on the brink of war, then Putin will know the west will not interfer.
That was proven in Georgia, that gave Putin the confidence to annex Crimea and the Donestsk regions, full well knowing the west would NOT interfere, and true to form we didn't, which gave him the confidence to further his ambitions and to try it on in Ukraine.. Thankfully the World united against that and Ukraine fought back... But now we are at a turning point in History and we need to either put up or shut up and slink away in shame as genocide is carried out in our name.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/gfzrop4xcaatkps_0ac64929056133a4a20a0f197eac816c1644c443.jpg

[NutLoose]

Words fail me.

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1755312502341050777

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1755312502341050777

[ORAC]

Russia's defence ministry is proposing to raise the upper age limit for military service by contract soldiers and mobilised men to 65.

A good time for a reminder that the life expectancy at birth for men in Russia per latest world bank data is 64.

https://t.co/KxGf2smMZe

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1755540452625781141?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Yesterday, Ukrainian pilot Vladyslav Rykov was killed during a combat sortie on a Su-25 fighter jet. He had 385 sorties to his credit.

"He was the best pilot and commander I knew. He covered my back from the beginning of the full-scale war both on the ground and in the air, trained a large number of both combat subordinates and leaders," fellow pilot Lt. Col. Rostyslav Lazarenko said.

[ORAC]

😡😡

https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1755521980130787525?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian military now rejoicing, saying Musk's Starlink satellite internet now works in Russian occupied areas of Ukraine.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x821/image_d1d76236733867b4cc4ddfacc46c7f83d9772f6f.png
​​​​​​​

[Wokkafans]

https://Twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1755616935537197463?s=20


https://Twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1755616935537197463?s=20

[SLXOwft]

Changes at the top of the Ukrainian Military. This is from The Kyiv Post but it's being widely reported - opposition MPs are criticising the change.

President Zelensky has announced the replacement of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/14/7406802/).

In a slightly vague post on social media, Zelensky said: "I met with General Valerii Zaluzhny. I thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine.

"We discussed the renewal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine require. We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"The time for such a renewal is now."

Ukraine's defense minister Rustem Umerov confirmed Zaluzhny had been removed from his post: "Today, a decision was made to change the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"I am sincerely grateful to Valery Fedorovych (Zaluzhny) for all his achievements and victories."

Zelensky said he's asked Zaluzhny "to continue to be in the team."
Speaking after his dismissal was announced, Zaluzhny said: "The tasks of 2022 are different from those of 2024."Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to the new realities as well. In order to win together."

Zaluzhny will be replaced by Oleksandr Syrsky who has commanded Ukrainian forces defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.

[NutLoose]

Not good, Adviivka is in danger of being cut in half.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755701642895261879

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755701642895261879

[ORAC]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1755653407866601972?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


A large fire broke out in the Perm region due to an explosion in a gas pipeline.
​​​​​​​
Railway tanks are burning in the village of Kueda. The fire has begun to spread to residential buildings.

[fdr]

So totally surreal and unbelievable



https://twitter.com/KitKlarenberg/status/1752806253368127602


Something lost in translation. Vlad did his bit for the people of eastern Ukraine. He destroyed their cities, forced the men to take up M-N 1892 rifles, and turned their generation into fertiliser. All of that to support his 3-day tourist outing of Ukraine. He has turned the retainer into a group that will be hated for decades, all in all, Vlad was a busy boy,. did lots for the Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. Think the Russians can do well to avoid his help.

[fdr]

Don't you just love Russian business men..



https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755344439759794379

Would have thought a sprinkler system would have been more appropriate, they have the seeds, and the fertiliser.... a bath???

[ORAC]

How many left on the list?

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1755754594582265901?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


You won’t believe it but another oil refinery in Russia is on fire

Ilskiy refinery, Krasnodar Krai, SMO zone.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1755896474389413928?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked not one but two oil refineries in Russia, specifically the Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in the Krasnodar Territory.

A significant fire erupted at the Ilya Refinery, affecting a primary processing plant crucial for producing diesel fuel for military needs.

​​​​​​​The Afip plant was also targeted, the extent of the damage is being assessed, RBC reports referring to its own sources.

[NutLoose]

And Ilsky is burning well

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1755899780331360464

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1755899780331360464

[NutLoose]

The answer to this is revolt and kill your officers... hopefully it will catch on. They had one revolution in the past that worked out ok, time for another?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755928418183442513

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755928418183442513

[NutLoose]

Norway to provide 10 more NASM systems

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1755915317753045251

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1755915317753045251

[NutLoose]

This shows how ineffective the S-300 and S-400 can be.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1754947725039186310

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1754947725039186310

[NutLoose]

Italy approves another years aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1755885870219993161

https://twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1755885870219993161


Finland approve another package of military aid in the region of 190 million Euros

https://twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1755936005809422805

https://twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1755936005809422805

[NutLoose]

President Zelensky presented Zaluzhnyi and Budanov with the “Hero of Ukraine” awards!


https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1755938784007393723

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1755938784007393723

[NutLoose]

More fires in Moscow

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755724970863268322

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755724970863268322

[ORAC]

https://x.com/warinthefuture/status/1755739875763196288?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


This reform agenda, laid out in President Zelenskyy's speech today about the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi, is worth studying. There are some very interesting aspects….

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1755739875763196288.html?utm_campaign=topunroll
​​​​​​​

[melmothtw]

Da dah!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF5_ztIW4AAUG3P?format=jpg&name=large

[Lonewolf_50]

Viper's lookin' good! :ok:
ORAC: thanks for the link to that analysis. :ok: "Every general must know the front" is an interesting turn of phrase. Performing liposuction on the HQ may be helpful, and getting the logistics improvements put into place may be a chore. (heck, it is hard for every armed force).

[NutLoose]

It looks like they did indeed knock a stormshadow / scalp down :(


https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1756055082066481460

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1756055082066481460

[NutLoose]

Cool to know, the Ukrainians love the F-16

The F-16 exceeded the expectations of Ukrainian pilots during the exercises,

Ukrainian pilot, callsign "Phantom". He shared some of his thoughts with Voice of America: Western instructors speak highly of Ukrainian pilots, saying that "Ukrainian pilots are very skilled" and extremely motivated.
The stage of retraining Ukrainians on the F-16 is proceeding as planned.
Not only pilots are being trained, but also ground personnel, mechanics, and support units
"a pilot or technician is a small cog in a big system." Ukrainian pilots are "very impressed".

The F-16 has simply exceeded their expectations.

"The F-16 is a new generation aircraft, a more digitalized aircraft, with many systems and programs that need to be introduced during and before the flight.
" The retraining program is the same whether it is in the United States, Denmark, Greece, or Turkey as the partners have discussed and agreed upon it.
"By the time the F-16s are ready to be delivered to Ukraine, the infrastructure will be ready, as will our people." Can't wait to see our amazing pilots flying the F-16s in the Ukrainian sky!

​​​​​​​Link to the article: https://holosameryky.com/a/pilot-phantom-interview/7476726.html (https://t.co/7m91pbG62d)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF6MPkcW4AAdf6j?format=jpg&name=small (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1755995106484588615/photo/1)

[NutLoose]

Translation of the linked site above.

https://www-holosameryky-com.translate.goog/a/pilot-phantom-interview/7476726.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[rattman]

Cool to know, the Ukrainians love the F-16
its a fake photo edited

[NutLoose]

Not interested in the photo, read the article that is translated.

[Mil-26Man]

its a fake photo edited

Any evidence of that?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/danielr33187703/status/1756092718584082572?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


. It would be easy to overlook this single photo of a mysterious #Ukrainian #drone that was shown on a Russian Telegram channel. This drone crashed in the Belgorod region and there are a number of interesting details.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1756092718584082572.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

[NutLoose]

Re fancy vents, read NACA ducts and probably supplying cooling air to the cylinders.

[ORAC]

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-funding-bill-moves-closer-to-passage/

Ukraine funding bill moves closer to passage

The U.S. Senate voted Friday evening local time to move the $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan closer to being passed in the upper chamber despite Republican objections. Votes were split 64-19 with only 14 Republicans voting in favor.

The bill now has a better chance of passing in the upper chamber. According to The Hill, Friday's vote allows (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4459618-ukraine-funding-package-moves-closer-to-senate-passage/) senators to amend the bill….

[ORAC]

Mil-26Man,

Danish f-16 in Skrydstrup with photoshopped markings.

https://x.com/john_a_ridge/status/1756030727534067947?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Mil-26Man]

Mil-26Man,

Danish f-16 in Skrydstrup with photoshopped markings.

We know it's in Denmark, but where is the evidence the markings are Photoshopped?

[ORAC]

Despite Russia's claims, there were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on the downed Russian Il-76 transport plane that crashed on Jan. 24, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov told Babel in an interview that was published on Feb. 9.

"I can definitely tell you that our prisoners were not there," said (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTrO2Oz1PVo&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fbabel.ua%2F&source_ve_path=MjM4NTE&feature=emb_title) Danilov during the interview……

[DaveReidUK]

We know it's in Denmark, but where is the evidence the markings are Photoshopped?

It's just too neat.

If it had been genuine, you would expect to see some traces of the obliterated RDAF serial.

[Video Mixdown]

It's just too neat.
If it had been genuine, you would expect to see some traces of the obliterated RDAF serial.
Why does this matter? We know the aircraft and training exist, whether this picture is real or not.

[ORAC]

We know it's in Denmark, but where is the evidence the markings are Photoshopped? Read the linked thread.

https://x.com/john_a_ridge/status/1756030729337663646?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​

[Mil-26Man]

Read the linked thread.




I did, but that's not actually how Photoshop works.

[NutLoose]

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/image_e567b21bebc1718a1b57c24c3495d81119d0001c.jpeg

[NutLoose]

Russias advances into Adviivka

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1744910625145262338

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1744910625145262338

[NutLoose]

Russia now has access to Starlink via deliveries from Dubai I believe.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1756253657023283205

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1756253657023283205

[NutLoose]

More details on the new head of the Ukrainian military. You cannot fault those credentials.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1756212861838541159

[NutLoose]

Totally agree, cut of his supply routes. Russia only has limited routes in to sustain their campaign.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1744897531669254605

[ORAC]

Not sure of the logic or utility of this - may be being misreported.

If the US doesn’t want to supply anything then NATO can’t force their hand, more likely to incline Trump, if elected, to leave NATO.

Seems to just add another level of bureaucracy and possible vetoes into the system.

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1756220581823873507?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


NATO wants to take over coordination of arms supply to Ukraine to outwit Trump in the event of his presidency - Handelsblatt, citing sources in diplomatic and political circles.

"This is actually a change of course, because previously the bloc did not interfere in the supply of weapons to Ukraine and considered it a matter of bilateral agreements of individual NATO countries with Kyiv."

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1213/image_ffa3638a7b906f95cc8398008fcb89a33c5cefef.png

[NutLoose]

The tragedy of it all :sad::{

one families end..

https://twitter.com/MykhailoRohoza/status/1756322872853721139

https://twitter.com/MykhailoRohoza/status/1756322872853721139

[NutLoose]

If this is true, it does not bode well for Ukraine with the new commander in chief.

One of the factors of the contradictions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny was Syrsky, who became Zaluzhny's "replacement" yesterday. It was Syrsky who convinced Zelensky that Bakhmut must be held at all costs, and it was Syrsky who pulled out the units prepared by Zaluzhny for a counteroffensive in the south, throwing them into a meat grinder in Bakhmut. For which he deservedly received the nickname "Bakhmut butcher" in the army environment.

In some ways, he strongly resembles Tarkhan Batirashvili from ISIS, who also received a similar nickname Abu Meat for storming the Syrian Kobani, where he literally threw ISIS fighters in waves. By the way, it was there that he put almost half of the elite detachments of the group, which were essentially special forces (and which then performed very well in the battles in Iraq and in the Mayadin area. They also recaptured Palmyra from the Russian army, having five times fewer numbers than the Russian army group). It was the extremely unsuccessful assault on Kobani that critically weakened the ISIL military structure, which did not allow its military command to hold Iraqi Ramadi (which the Iraqi army unsuccessfully stormed for several months, but the withdrawal of ISIL forces from there to plug the hole in northern Syria, which Abu Meath arranged, caused the failure of the city's defense). After Ramadi, the IS defenses in Iraq began to collapse rapidly, and only the relatively successful defense of Mosul for nine months was able to prolong the IS agony for almost a year.

It was in the spring and summer of last year that relations between Zaluzhny and Zelensky sharply escalated. Syrsky did what became the prologue of the disaster for the AFU in the south - he deprived Zaluzhny of both shock units and reserves. Therefore, Tom had to attack with what he managed to protect from Syrsky. According to various estimates, Syrsky seized from Zaluzhny more than a third of the forces intended for the counteroffensive in the south, and moreover, at critical moments of this counteroffensive, he pulled out the units intended for the development of the offensive in Bakhmut. The result is that success was achieved neither there nor there.

​​​​​​​The most important military principle, the principle of concentration of forces, was ignored. But Syrsky is extremely loyal to Zelensky, to whom he owes his career. Therefore, this consideration outweighed everything. By the way, Syrsky is one of literally the last senior Ukrainian military with a Soviet military education. A significant part of the Ukrainian generals now are people who have received Western military education. In this sense, the discrepancies between Zaluzhny and Syrsky were also purely professional in nature.

​​​​​​​ https://twitter.com/MykhailoRohoza/status/1756331371654520838

[RatherBeFlying]

I have earlier remarked that the side that runs out first loses. But my thought then was on ammo, missiles, fuel and vehicles.

When you are the small guy, you will run out of meat before the other guy does. Ukraine absolutely cannot afford meat wave tactics.

[Spunky Monkey]

If this is true, it does not bode well for Ukraine with the new commander in chief.

Not sure I believe this. That the CGS plan and assembled forces are relocated by the wishes of a subordinate General and thwarting the effectiveness of the counter offensive in the pursuit of an urban blocking move.
The consensus of the difficulties of the Counter Offensive last year were caused by Russian defensive positions in greater depth than expected and huge mine fields that completely nullified the advantages of Manoeuver Warfare (Western tactics using western equipped armoured groups).

The Twitter post is from a wounded veteran, based in Canada with 9000 followers saying something controversial to raise his public profile to support his Paypal Go-Fundme page.
I could be wrong, but this looks like bolleux.

[admikar]

If this is true, it does not bode well for Ukraine with the new commander in chief.

Another thing to consider:
"where polling shows Zaluzhnyi has become a more popular and trusted figure than the president."
from here https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-zelenskyy-1.7111172

[IlyaMuromets]

I did, but that's not actually how Photoshop works.
I don't know what you mean by that, as Photoshop "works" in many ways, but you might like to see how www.fotoforensics.com works! The fuzzy image in the linked thread is a forensic analysis of the photoshopped image.

IM

[NutLoose]

My worst fears are coming to fruition , UKraine is running out of AD missiles.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1756071068429623747

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1756071068429623747

[ORAC]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1756727579422187969?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Deepstate publishes satellite images of the Russian 30 km train-barrier in the Donetsk region

“The Russians in Donetsk have assembled a 30-km-long "tsar-train" consisting of more than two thousand cars

🚋 The continuous structure of goods wagons stretches along a branch from the railway station in Olenivka to Volnovakha and has about 2100 wagons of various types. The construction of this "railwagon centipede" began in July 2023. For construction, apparently, railwagons were stolen from temporarily occupied territories.

🤔 This is a very specific engineering structure, the effectiveness of which is difficult to assess. The idea is clear - an obstacle to the advancement of the Defense Forces. It can be considered as a separate line of defense, because it is extremely difficult to damage, move or blow up a 30-kilometer-long mass of metal, and the movement of equipment through such an obstacle without breaking through the corridor is impossible.

🛰 The given radar images are publicly available, to understand the scale of this formation. The construction of the "train" has been visually verified by our team on pictures from different periods of time.”

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18821

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x614/image_c7764a0ff0f57cdde334400dfcbbb00d17cae8dc.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1756761840598532405?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The US Senate has just passed the procedural vote to advance $95 billion foreign aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, overcoming a filibuster.

The final passage could still be days away.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x677/image_114e985d061f383e21c4ae2b254740fb96e4a920.png
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

A damaged SU-34 being trucked back to Russia. It does make you wonder how many western jets can be stripped and shipped like that.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1756641267000197272

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1756641267000197272

[The Helpful Stacker]

A damaged SU-34 being trucked back to Russia. It does make you wonder how many western jets can be stripped and shipped like that.



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1756641267000197272


​​​​​​If it's just had the wings angle grinded off in order to be shipped back to the Russian equivalent of an MU to be stripped for parts, then I'd dare say quite a few Western a/c can be moved like that.

Most Western countries undoubtedly have their own equivalent of "Crash and Smash".

[NutLoose]

The still, below, freezing the video it looks like the wings were unbolted and possibly on another truck.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/592x605/image_dce404916fdb322530271eb7f982adffd83d1587.png

[rattman]

Damaged Himars returned to the US (friend circled the damaged parts)

https://imgur.com/a/Gi9OM5C

[Low average]

Uncomfortable reading from the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

[NutLoose]

Uncomfortable reading from the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490


Sadly that has been on the cards for a while, hence Ukraine's appeals to other Countries to return men of fighting age that fled back home

[ORAC]

:ok:

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1756983327469576245?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russia: FSB accused the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) of secretly selling off 36 planes & helicopters abroad.

The aircraft left Russia under the pretext of charter flights, but never returned. At least 3 Mi-8 helicopters are now in use by Ukraine. 🍿

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1757004812753752554?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1064/image_05f5e92fb8ba82d930c1fe16ba7326ded5276ae7.png
​​​​​​​

[Andrewgr2]

:ok:



Russia: FSB accused the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) of secretly selling off 36 planes & helicopters abroad.

The aircraft left Russia under the pretext of charter flights, but never returned. At least 3 Mi-8 helicopters are now in use by Ukraine. 🍿



https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1064/image_05f5e92fb8ba82d930c1fe16ba7326ded5276ae7.png

The translation says 59 planes and helicopters. Nice little earner for the vendor. I wonder where the proceeds are banked?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1757029333711917417?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


⚡️“Ukrainian officials have made the delivery of Mirage 2000D fighter jets from France the only item on the agenda for Emmanuel Macron's forthcoming visit.

[dctyke]

Sadly that has been on the cards for a while, hence Ukraine's appeals to other Countries to return men of fighting age that fled back home

When England played Ukraine at Wembley there were thousands of Ukraine supporters, mostly young men of fighting age. At the time I was amazed that the news channels didn’t make more of it.

[ORAC]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/12/ukraines-pokrova-spoofing-system-tells-shaheds-to-get-lost/

Ukraine’s Pokrova Spoofing System Tells Shaheds To Get Lost

Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine with Iranian-designed Shahed drones is unrelenting, with 45 launched on the night of 10-11 Feb and another 14 last night.

Over 3,700 Shahed attacks been recorded by December 21 (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-fired-7400-missiles-3700-shahed-drones-war-so-far-kyiv-says-2023-12-21/) and questions are raised about the Ukraine supply of air defense missiles (https://www.ft.com/content/6594e548-8b2e-4c95-a589-7d9e358062d2).

Now Ukraine has a new drone shield which does not rely on ammunition: a nationwide electronic warfare system called Pokrova (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2415318-ukraine-will-spoof-gps-across-the-country-to-stop-russian-drones/) with confuses drone navigation systems.….

[sycamore]

Just make it a 180 *turn back to whence they started,,,

[Lonewolf_50]

When England played Ukraine at Wembley there were thousands of Ukraine supporters, mostly young men of fighting age. At the time I was amazed that the news channels didn’t make more of it. Perhaps the news channels' head sheds. and editors, had advised their employees not to discuss the war in covering that story. (Fawlty Towers reference)

[ORAC]

https://x.com/john_a_ridge/status/1757074493099462920?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


We now have public confirmation from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Examinations (KNDISE) that the wreckage recovered following the 7 FEB 2023 and 30 DEC 2022 raids are in fact from 3M22 Tsirkon, a Russian hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile system.

This is the first operational employment of a hypersonic cruise missile system. These missiles were likely drawn from Northern or Pacific Fleet stock. It indicates that vessels of the Black Sea Fleet have received Tsirkon integration, likely the Admiral Grigorovichs or Buyan-Ms.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1756961954764067198?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs that Russian operators of Iranian-made drones are being trained in Syria for the war against Ukraine.

The training for the Russians is being conducted by the Lebanese Hezbollah Police and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the territory of the Syrian military airfield Shayrat.

The Lebanese-Iranian-Russian training course involves mastering the Shahed-136 and Ababil-3 drones, as well as the Raad remotely piloted aircraft.

The military exercises are headed by one of Hezbollah's commanders, Kamal Abu Sadik, who specializes in the manufacture and maintenance of drones.

Along with the Russians, mercenaries from Syria, whom Russia plans to use in the war against Ukraine as drone operators, are undergoing training.

[Lonewolf_50]

Looks like WW III is slowly percolating, ORAC, if all of that is true. (And why wouldn't it be?). Crappy time for the Americans to remove their 2000+ from Iraq, wouldn't you say?
The ripple effects of this war in Ukraine are beginning to manifest.

[NutLoose]

Looks like WW III is slowly percolating, ORAC, if all of that is true. (And why wouldn't it be?). Crappy time for the Americans to remove their 2000+ from Iraq, wouldn't you say?
The ripple effects of this war in Ukraine are beginning to manifest.

That’s what you get when you drip feed a war and do not provide the equipment for the Country to drive Russia from its borders, long range missiles, gloves off on the use against Russia, destroying the Bridge and supplying hundreds of tanks and APC’s etc. top that off with the cutting off arms supplies after promising to stand by Ukraine.

I do wonder if supplies are now restored and more in the quantities needed, has Ukraine still got the manpower to complete the task, having bleed themselves dry of manpower during the early periods of the war fighting to defend the west while the west pondered arming them.

i think the world is rapidly going to collapse in on itself and The USA may end up turning on those who have blocked the aid for their own personal agenda as Americans start to die as a result.

[NutLoose]

More barking rants.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757014887383838863

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757014887383838863

[NutLoose]

A Russian moral booster at work.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757081618353648124

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757081618353648124

[Winemaker]

Morale, but still it sort of seems the same. Sigh, at least the US senate is on the right path. I wonder what Putin has on Trump......

[ORAC]

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757233325343752461?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Moments ago, the US Senate passed three major procedural hurdles for the $95 billion Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan aid deal, successfully invoking cloture 66-33 and setting up an imminent simple majority vote to send the bill to the House.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-produce-thousands-long-range-drones-2024-minister-says-2024-02-12/

Ukraine to produce thousands of long-range drones in 2024, minister says

KYIV, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies making drones that can reach Moscow and St Petersburg, Ukraine's digital minister said.

Mykhailo Fedorov spoke about the wartime (https://www.reuters.com/topic/event/ukraine-crisis/) drone industry he has championed in a interview in Kyiv in which he revealed new details about the sector, after a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities in recent weeks.

"The category of long-range kamikaze drones is growing, with a range of 300, 500, 700, and 1,000 kilometres. Two years ago, this category did not exist ... at all," he told Reuters.

Fedorov, 33, has been at the heart of Ukraine's effort to nurture private military startups to innovate and build up the drone industry as the war goes into its third year and Ukraine seeks new ways to fight back against well dug-in Russian forces.

The recent series of strikes on oil facilities, he said, reflected the government's progress in rapidly deregulating the drone market and increasing funding for it, with the state acting as a venture investor.

Some $2.5 million in grants were allocated to military tech startups via the BRAVE1 initiative set up by the government last year, an amount set to be increased roughly tenfold in 2024, he said. "We will fight to increase the financing even more," he added.

In contrast with Russia where drone production is dominated by the state, the vast majority of manufacturers in Ukraine are private. Fedorov said only one of the 10 companies whose drones could fly as far as the regions around Moscow or St Petersburg was a state company…..

Ukraine's production levels and deliveries increased more than 120 times in 2023, according to Fedorov, part of a broader wartime push to develop and produce drones to narrow the gap with Russia's strike capabilities.

Fedorov said he agreed with an assessment by Ukraine's military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov that Kyiv had achieved a "certain kind of parity" with Moscow in the production of long-range drones.

"We need to act in an anti-bureaucratic way. This is the essence of a breakthrough in the war of technology. We are going to continue to put our bets on this, to work in this direction. Because technology can really save us," he said, noting the shortage of artillery rounds Ukrainian troops were facing.

Overall, more than 300,000 drones of different types were contracted last year and more than 100,000 were sent to the front, he said, adding that the figures did not cover volunteer supplies which he said made a "significant contribution".

"We removed taxes on UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) components, simplified the contracting procedure, and the procedure for decommissioning," he said. "In other words, we took all the blockages that private sector companies were facing and addressed them in six months by passing all the necessary laws and resolutions."

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has set a target for Ukraine this year to produce one million First Person View (FPV) drones, which are cheap to make and weaponised in huge quantities by both sides on the front.

Ukraine's drone industry relies heavily on components from foreign countries, including China, widely seen as an ally of Russia. Fedorov said there was an effort to localise production of components. "That's why I think that if we continue this trend, by the end of this year we will have a lot of companies that have already made more than 50% of their components locally."

The surge in recent production put such a strain on logistics that changes had to be rapidly made to prevent long delays in deliveries, he said. "In December alone, drone deliveries were 50 times higher than in the entire 2022. Just imagine, the system was not prepared for that, and I think the logistics did not realize that such volumes were possible."

The private sector was also held back by a state monopoly on making drone ammunition. Ukraine passed a resolution ending that state monopoly three months ago and later halted a separate one on making artillery rounds and rockets, he said. "Over the past three months, more than 20 companies have already undergone testing and can now hand over ammunition to the state," he said.

Ukraine has trained 20,000 drone operators since it launched a programme to provide grants for military training in private schools at the beginning of 2023, he said. There were 20 such schools, he added.

"We pay for every military person who comes to these schools. Now we have a plan to turn this into a larger state program and separately to modernize, update several training centres and make them work at a high level."

[NutLoose]

:( desperate times.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757334737234833417

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757334737234833417

https://twitter.com/Roland_Ino/status/1757342965561749543

https://twitter.com/Roland_Ino/status/1757342965561749543

[NutLoose]

There is a fire at a MIG plant in Moscow.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757373283249398211

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757373283249398211

[ORAC]

The U.S. Senate approved a $95 billion funding package in the early morning of Feb. 13 that contained $60 billion in aid for Ukraine.

The bill, which received (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4464434-senate-passes-ukraine-funding/) 70 votes in favor and 29 against, will now go to the Republican-led House, where it still faces significant obstacles.

House Speaker Mike Johnson preemptively rejected the bill on Feb. 12 before it was even passed by the Senate, saying (https://kyivindependent.com/speaker-johnson-rejects-ukraine-aid-bill-as-it-moves-forward-in-senate/) that domestic border issues must first be addressed before any foreign aid is approved.

The news was welcomed in Ukraine as a significant step toward the aid's ultimate passage.

"I am grateful to (Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer, (Senate Minority Leader Mitch) McConnell) and every U.S. senator who has supported continued assistance to Ukraine as we fight for freedom, democracy, and the values we all hold dear," said President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"American assistance brings just peace in Ukraine closer and restores global stability, resulting in increased security and prosperity for all Americans and all the free world."

[NutLoose]

The Gasprom-Neft refinery in Moscow Kapontnya ablaze as well

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1757325919453110606

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1757325919453110606

That's going to hit them

Around 02.30 , a heavy fire broke out at Gazpromneft's refinery in south-east Moscow. Normally, it supplies Moscow with 40% of the gasoline and 50% of the diesel the city needs, and also supplies the airports with most of the jet fuel they consume.

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1757344143955636410

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1757344143955636410

[NutLoose]

Popov by name and Popov by nature?

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1757316683369521219

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1757316683369521219

[NutLoose]

it looks like bullsh*t does not sell.

One-fifth of Solovyev viewers have left him — Mozhem Obyasnit. A study of ratings conducted by Mozhem Obyasnit (MO) showed that Russians are not big fans of Solovyev anymore and watch less propaganda in general.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757122123645022625

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757122123645022625

[NutLoose]

Russia has issued an arrest warrant for the Estonian PM

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757365462529122578

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757365462529122578

[NutLoose]

More on Ukraines drone capabilities

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1757034109740707942

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1757034109740707942

[Lonewolf_50]

That’s what you get... How about you take your political whinging to Jet Blast, where it belongs?
Story from the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065):
Ukraine is struggling to meet its demand for soldiers.
Volunteers aren't enough. The country constantly needs to replace the tens of thousands who've been killed or injured. Many more are just exhausted, after 18 months fighting off Russia's full-scale invasion.
Some men though don't want to fight. Thousands have left the country, sometimes after bribing officials, and others are finding ways of dodging recruitment officers, who in turn have been accused of increasingly heavy-handed tactics.
"The system is very outdated," says Yehor. He watched his father suffer from mental health issues after fighting with the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. It's why he doesn't want to fight. He's asked that we don't use his real name to protect his identity.
Typically, before Russia's invasion, men who didn't want to do military service because of their religious beliefs would be offered an alternative - like working in farming or social services. That choice disappeared with the start of martial law last year, but Yehor thinks it should still be available, regardless of peoples' reasons.
"Each situation is individual," argues Yehor. "The fact it is written in the constitution that all male citizens must fight is, in my opinion, not in line with today's values."
He was recently sent to a recruitment centre after being stopped by police in Kyiv, who accused him of avoiding the draft. He was eventually allowed to go home, after pleading that he had back problems, but next time he fears he won't be.
There are exemptions from service, including having poor health, being a single parent, and caring for someone vulnerable. But those convicted of draft-dodging face fines, or even up to three years in prison.
"Everyone should be allowed to contribute to this war if their situations are taken into account," says Yehor. "I feel sorry for people who are on the front lines, yet I don't have a pacifist alternative."
Something I mentioned in the Unpleasantries thread: somewhere around 6 to 8 million Ukrainians are displaced/refugees. This war has inflicted a massive cost, in human capital, since it began, and that's before casualties are added into the human cost.
(Germany has taken in about a million according to the UNHCR.).
From a starting population of 44 million or so in 2022, that's a substantial loss of population (a bit over a fifth).
To put that in perspective, if the UK lost a fifth of their population over the course of a year, how many people would be gone? (Between 13 and 14 million). FWIW, Syria has suffered a similar loss of population since 2011.
Some of the Ukrainian refugees are obviously not combat/military eligible, but others are/were. They are having troop/recruitment/conscription shortages/problems. Those who have fled are, it appears, beyond the reach of the recruiters and/or conscription organizations.
Doubtless some who had initially fled have returned home to fight the invasion.
How many more will do that? Unknown.

[admikar]

How about you take your political whinging to Jet Blast, where it belongs?
Story from the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065):
Ukraine is struggling to meet its demand for soldiers.

Something I mentioned in the Unpleasantries thread: somewhere around 6 to 8 million Ukrainians are displaced/refugees. This war has inflicted a massive cost, in human capital, since it began, and that's before casualties are added into the human cost.
(Germany has taken in about a million according to the UNHCR.).
From a starting population of 44 million or so in 2022, that's a substantial loss of population (a bit over a fifth).
To put that in perspective, if the UK lost a fifth of their population over the course of a year, how many people would be gone? (FWIW, Syria has suffered a similar loss of population since 2011...).
Some of the refugees are obviously not combat/military eligible, but others are/were. They are having troop/recruitment/conscription shortages/problems. Those who have fled are, it appears, beyond the reach of the recruiters and/or conscription organizations.
Doubtless some who had initially fled have returned home to fight the invasion.
How many more will do that? Unknown.
I have mentioned it here before. Even those that stayed in Ukraine may be unwilling to fight once they take a score of who's gone and who is left. From my own experiences, those that left are in wast, wast majority those who have a lot of money. Same goes for Russians. One could be mistaken for believing thas one has been teleported to Monaco when seeing car parks of these individuals.

[NutLoose]

Ukraine asked months ago for European countries to start returning military aged males.

[NutLoose]

How about you take your political whinging to Jet Blast, where it belongs?
Story from the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065):

Simply speaking the truth and consequences. The west's inability to prevent this happening in the first place and then not dealing with it when it did, has lead to the spread of unrest around the world and the results we are seeing now, and it is rapidly getting away from all western countries to deal with it.

You yourself mentioned the possibilty of pulling US troops out of a region, that would never have happened if the west had shown resolve, went in hard with material supplies and gave them the ability not to defend their country, but to retake it.

But they didn't and the arguing amongst politicians in all countries as to the next move is costing lives and showing the west as being weak and telling everyone, hold out against western power for a couple of years and they will start to fold their hand.

Personally I think this all cracked off with Russia's excursion into Georgia while the west was diverted elsewhere, and our lack of support and action to help the Georgian people, that signalled to Putin he could get away with such actions.

[Lonewolf_50]

You yourself mentioned the possibilty of pulling US troops out of a region
We pulled tens of thousands out of Europe after the wall came down. We pulled thousands out of Korea in the early 00's. There was a reason for that. But they didn't and the arguing amongst politicians in all countries as to the next move is costing lives and showing the west as being weak and telling everyone, hold out against western power for a couple of years and they will start to fold their hand. All of your hand wringing is water under the bridge and the consequences - don't disagree with you on that point - of a couple of decades of failed policy. That's great stuff for JB, Uncle Fred's thread has some great discussion on that (including some of your inputs) but I don't see it as on topic for this thread.
Personally I think this all cracked off with Russia's excursion into Georgia while the west was diverted elsewhere, and our lack of support and action to help the Georgian people, that signalled to Putin he could get away with such actions. Are you referring to 2008? That's not on topic for this thread either.

The recent news of ammo shortages in and around Bakhmut are also being fused with the changes in generals at the top levels.
That's actually normal. (Flag officers / general officers changing).

In WW II, a whole lot of generals in the US Army got relieved or reassigned after certain times and events.

Within the last two years, Mr Putin has fired -- this is on topic -- a considerable number of Russian generals based on their inability to do what he felt was needed. (And likely for other reasons). It's been in the news, and I think you've linked to a number of the news stories on that.
Objectively speaking (the RUSI critiques on the Operation Level stuff is very good) a number of them dropped the ball during the first month of this "special military operation" which is both good news and bad news.

Good news? Ukraine didn't get overrun and conquered.
Bad news? The remainder of them did just well enough that the war is still on going on Ukrainian territory, Ukraine has lost substantial amounts of land, and (for example) lost important urban centers like Mariupol (pre war population around 300,000 or so) ...and the butcher's bill keeps going up.

[NutLoose]

An excellent film on Adviivka and the possibilities and movements

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1757298306378531303

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1757298306378531303

[NutLoose]

Remember the released film of Ukrainians reserve’s awaiting to go into Adviivka.. :(

There is some very disturbing information regarding a Russian strike on the AFU military training base in #Selydove (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Selydove?src=hashtag_click), #Donetsk (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Donetsk?src=hashtag_click) Oblast. There is currently no official confirmation from AFU sources. Geolocation: 48.156033, 37.275979 which is about 25km from the closest Russian positions It is reported by mostly Russian sources that the AFU had positioned a large force there of 1,000 to 1,500 soldiers or more most likely to stage reserves for the #Avdiivka (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Avdiivka?src=hashtag_click) sector or as a staging area for 3rd Assault Brigade and 110th Mechanized Brigade forces being rotated out of there. Beginning early this morning and up until as recently a 1-hour ago, the Russians have been conducting multiple waves of rocket and missile strikes on the location using Iskander Ballistic missiles as well as rockets with cluster warheads (BM-27 Uragan, BM-30 SMERCH or similar). The recent attacks were intended to target the accumulation of rescuers at the site. I do not want to speculate on the number of dead and wounded at this point. However, ambulances and helicopters were dispatched from across the region to assist in the rescue and recovery

And then from the same author

​​​​​​​
Update: AFU sources claim the rocket and missile strike on the training grounds in #Seldove (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Seldove?src=hashtag_click) is a Russian disinformation campaign (IPSO) and that there were no AFU casualties. WARNING! Russian disinformation! Russian propagandists launched a disinformation campaign about the alleged losses of the Defense Forces of Ukraine under Selidov in Donetsk region. This is the Russian IPSO. In this way, the enemy diverts attention from his daily colossal losses in the Taurian direction. They amounted to 645 people only on the day of February 12, and for the previous week (from February 5 to 11) - 2,947 people. As for the shelling by Muscovites of the Pokrovsky district of the Donetsk region, at approximately 10:40 a.m. on February 13, 2024, Russian troops struck the village of Tsukuryne in the Pokrovsky district with the Uragan surface-to-air missile. Employees of the State Emergency Service inspected the area and established that as a result of the shelling, 2 multi-apartment two-story residential buildings on the street were damaged. Light and passenger car. There are no injured or dead. Trust only official sources of information.

https://twitter.com/PoeDameron22/status/1757407982369845340

https://twitter.com/PoeDameron22/status/1757407982369845340

[NutLoose]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1081x1156/image_41a95988f22d0da1bcfb46fff1dc7fcedae93dc1.jpeg

[NutLoose]

More Adviivka action

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1757524851663778258

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1757524851663778258

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian Spartans seem to cope with the terrain, good to see the gunner now has protection.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1756221391173521854

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1756221391173521854

[NutLoose]

Now I have seen everything, a tracked drone that can fly

https://twitter.com/PatriaeFilius/status/1756273804513353792

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/PatriaeFilius/status/1756273804513353792

[NutLoose]

Very strange occurrence’s

https://twitter.com/Jamie04381095/status/1757476864279376257

https://twitter.com/Jamie04381095/status/1757476864279376257

[NutLoose]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x1080/image_b987c11469154feee2a30c8f6421ef5d89fed812.png

[NutLoose]

Ukraine is moving to a defensive posture.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1757451254400274624

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1757451254400274624

[rattman]

Either a masterful troll by Ukraine or a massive irony for russia



Ukraine is claiming they have sunk the Cesar Kunikov. The ship was named after Tsaezar Kunikov who died 14 February 1943 (aged 33)



https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1757648344082444607

[ORAC]

Reference the above…

https://x.com/ralee85/status/1757665047650709957?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Ukrainska Pravda’s sources in GUR claim the Russian Tsesar Kunikov Project 775 landing ship was sunk by drones. A Russian channel claims the crew is alive.

The Tsesar Kunikov (ex. BDK-64) was named after an officer Tsesar Kunikov of the Soviet Naval Infantry, who died on 14 February 1943.…..

​​​​​​​https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1757659022906233282?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x955/image_a2f826b46f82b899cf961ca5416fa6bc78a4e32f.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1757677730345185295?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The video of how Group 13 of the Main Intelligence Service of Ukraine in cooperation with Ukrainian security and defense forces destroyed the Caesar Kunikov large landing ship of Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The ship was hit with Magura V5 attack naval drones.…

[langleybaston]

The video of how Group 13 of the Main Intelligence Service of Ukraine in cooperation with Ukrainian security and defense forces destroyed the Caesar Kunikov large landing ship of Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The ship was hit with Magura V5 attack naval drones.…

BBC news Report as fact.

[Spunky Monkey]

Having watched several Ukrainian drone attacks on ships, they target the impact of the previous impact.
My initial thought was why not spread the attack along the ship to overwhelm response parties?
However it seems that the amount of damage these drone do is quite severe, so several drones in one location is overcoming the ships integrity causing catastrophic damage on weakened areas.
Lessons probably learn from earlier.
Slava Ukraini

[Sallyann1234]

Seems entirely logical to my uninformed mind. The first breaches the hull, the second explodes right Inside.
​​​​​​

​​

[NutLoose]

Having watched several Ukrainian drone attacks on ships, they target the impact of the previous impact.
My initial thought was why not spread the attack along the ship to overwhelm response parties?
However it seems that the amount of damage these drone do is quite severe, so several drones in one location is overcoming the ships integrity causing catastrophic damage on weakened areas.
Lessons probably learn from earlier.
Slava Ukraini


On the last one when they were fillmed targetting the same area that was a large hole in the side, I think you will find the reason was not necessarily to increase the damage in the hole, though that would happen, but one goal was to detonate the two missiles in their tubes which were above the hole and full of explosive and fuel thus resulting in some big bangs and taking out a lot of the superstructure, possibly even the bridge.. see picture below

The latest one I would imagine the first goals would be to kill its engines, that might take more than one, then flood the transportation decks or hit the weapons lockers to assist in the explosion effect? but I do not have have anything substantial to go on, just guesswork, it just seems logical, no engines, loss of power and manueverability, no pumps, then you can take your time and target parts of the ship for maximum effect.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x600/gfwyxumwsaay8ey_adc0aff8687b790da5187c84ca4a446d3c17fc07.jpg

[NutLoose]

It does look like the engine room was the initial target.


https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1757704850710696107

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1757704850710696107

[SLXOwft]

My understanding is that the MAGURA V5 is autonomous which would suggest targeting by algorithm with potential target silhouettes held in the onboard database. Allowance is presumably made for attrition during the attack so it makes sense to me for them all to be aiming for the most vulnerable point. Assuming the video is genuine the 2 CIWS, which are/were capable of engaging surface targets seem to be trained fore and aft so the attack was a surprise. Presumably no active visual watch using night vision equipment, which would seem very lax given recent events..

[jolihokistix]

You can see the heat signatures of at least two crew members standing on the bow during the attack. No evidence that they were shooting that I could see, but possibly they were.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Another significant chop at the supply lines to Crimea and the southern front.: This ship could carry 10 MBT and 350 troops or 500 tonnes of cargo. Aiming at a single target or part of a much larger, longer on-going operation to cut off Crimea ? .Waves of attacks ( mostly airborne, but a few small-boat raids ) taking out radar stations, ( on- and off-shore ) C+C centres, Black Sea Fleet HQ ( x2) over the last six (?) months.

[RedToo]

Food for thought.
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1757527157788569751

[NutLoose]

Russia appears to be sussing out the use of drones..

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1757196910836974007

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1757196910836974007

[langleybaston]

Perhaps members of the Forum might like to consider raising British public awareness of the 2nd anniversary of the Special Military Operation?

Langley Towers will carry a very large UKR flag, also Church with ribbons etc. 23Feb or 24 Feb ......... depends on definition?

[Lonewolf_50]

Food for thought.
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1757527157788569751
For RedToo, as regards your linked source material ...
(1) The Twiidiot forgets that the US also has profound security commitments in Asia and the Middle East.
(2) Also, the Twiidiot doesn't understand scaling.

As to the attack in the Black Sea, glad to see that my hours of ship recognition paid off (all those years ago) .
As soon as I saw the picture (had not read the text yet) my thought was "That's a Russian amphib,Ropucha class"
(IIRC the gun position was the giveaway)"

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tendar/status/1757771471139618830?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


It looks like that the newly to Ukraine delivered GLSDB missiles are already in use. Russian channels share this video which apparently show a tail section.

The operational range of these missiles is 150 km (90 miles).

Source: Telegram / Ratnik2nd

​​​​​​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

It looks like that the newly to Ukraine delivered GLSDB missiles are already in use. Russian channels share this video which apparently show a tail section.

The operational range of these missiles is 150 km (90 miles).

Source: Telegram / Ratnik2nd



Hope we soon get confirmation of that alongside some photos/video of smoking/burning Russian ammo dumps, radar sites etc

[NutLoose]

Moscow fires are spreading.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755729816035471500

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755729816035471500

[NutLoose]

Let’s hope it keeps spreading.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1755719957315240066

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1755719957315240066

[Lonewolf_50]

Napoleon Bonaparte would feel right at home.

[NutLoose]

Canada announces funding to help support the F16 fleet.

https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1757863015922167990

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1757863015922167990

[NutLoose]

At Kursk the oil depot goes up in flames.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1757896636661907728

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1757896636661907728

[Winemaker]

Let’s hope it keeps spreading.


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1755719957315240066
Let's hope it's way below freezing, that makes it a bit more difficult.

[[email protected]]

Yet still the Republicans hamper the signing of the bill to send more aid to Ukraine.............

[WideScreen]

We now have public confirmation from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Examinations (KNDISE) that the wreckage recovered following the 7 FEB 2023 and 30 DEC 2022 raids are in fact from 3M22 Tsirkon, a Russian hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile system.

This is the first operational employment of a hypersonic cruise missile system. These missiles were likely drawn from Northern or Pacific Fleet stock. It indicates that vessels of the Black Sea Fleet have received Tsirkon integration, likely the Admiral Grigorovichs or Buyan-Ms.

​​​​​​​
A bit "off-topic", though this dingy does not sound that good for the US its carrier-based supremacy. Fire a couple of them to the mothership and it goes down to the bottom like Russian warships, having zero defense options against the Tsirkon. Could become pretty costly, losing both the carrier as well as its airplanes, having no place to go for landing.

[Tartiflette Fan]

A bit "off-topic", though this dingy does not sound that good for the US it's carrier-based supremacy. Fire a couple of them to the mothership and it goes down to the bottom like Russian warships, having zero defense options against the Tsirkon. Could become pretty costly, losing both the carrier as well as its airplanes, having no place to go for landing.

I don't know the difference in effectiveness between a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile and a hypersonic ballistic missile, but UKA ground-air systems have proved that they can shoot down the latter, so we definitely shouldn't accept Putin's sales talk of "unstoppable, invincible " weapons.

[NutLoose]

Couldn't Biden preposition extra vehicles and weapons in support of NATO in the likes of Poland, build up a veritable stockpile of Bradley's, Patriot missiles, Stingers, Ammo etc, then if and when the budget is sorted, simply transfer them across the border into Ukraine? That would at least cut down the transportation time.

[rattman]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-supply-thousands-of-drones-as-co-leader-of-major-international-capability-coalition-for-ukraine

Within an hour of the announcement Australia announced

Australia will contribute AUD 50 million to the International Fund for 🇺🇦Ukraine, administered by the 🇬🇧UK, directly supporting the procurement of priority military capabilities.

So imagine a substantial amount is going to end up in the drone program .

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1758065437630198185?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian media report a powerful explosion in Russian Biysk. Allegedly, the explosion took place at a military plant.*

This is a state-owned defense industry plant that specializes in chemical technologies.

The local mayor called the incident a "bang" caused by a "technological process."

This new Russian jargon of "technological process", "emergency descent" and "planned smoke curtains" is fascinating.

* Altai FSC Federal Research center

https://english.nv.ua/nation/explosion-at-defense-plant-in-altai-krai-russia-video-50392982.html

This plant, part of the Roscosmos state corporation, produces various items, including ammunition, solid-fuel rocket engine charges, and explosives for industrial purposes.

[ORAC]

Unsurprising…

Russian "military correspondents" report that head of the Russian Black Sea Fleet might have lost his position after Ukraine sank the Caesar Kunikov.

His duties as commander of the Black Sea Fleet are currently being performed by his former chief of staff.

[NutLoose]

Another Russian military research complex suffers and explosion

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758052465562313161

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758052465562313161

[NutLoose]

Some updates.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757885622121881798

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757885622121881798

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757885618095325437

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757885618095325437

[NutLoose]

The Netherlands to join the Drone programme for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757769198942450097

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757769198942450097

[NutLoose]

Another day another sacking, Russians are now reporting that Admiral Viktor Solov has been fired due to the sinking of the Caesar Kunikov.

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1758065343191249002

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1758065343191249002

[NutLoose]

Russia's secret weapons revealed...

https://twitter.com/RyanPatrick1991/status/1755393417763512771

https://twitter.com/RyanPatrick1991/status/1755393417763512771

[NutLoose]

I wish them well in repositioning.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1758082543855747408

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1758082543855747408

[NutLoose]

Adviikva from the Russians point of view.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1757919262889685150

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1757919262889685150

[NutLoose]

It looks like another large Russian convoy was hit in the Adviikva region.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1757698218043855233

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1757698218043855233

[Tartiflette Fan]

Couldn't Biden preposition extra vehicles and weapons in support of NATO in the likes of Poland, build up a veritable stockpile of Bradley's, Patriot missiles, Stingers, Ammo etc, then if and when the budget is sorted, simply transfer them across the border into Ukraine? That would at least cut down the transportation time.



The Army’s prepositioned stock for Europe, called APS-2 (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11699), include vehicles and weapons in Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and Poland that U.S. troops can use without waiting weeks for their home-based equipment to arrive on ships.. By the late 1980s, the plan had evolved to pre-position Six Divisions of equipment in the Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands), Belgium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium) and Germany.
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/02/us-military-equipment-ready-europe-deploying-forces/361530/

Looks like you were pre-empted there by half-a-century , Nutty. I believe that the REFORGER ( REturn of FORces to GERmany ) exercises conducted since the 60's relied on equipment in POMCUS sites ( (Prepositioning Of Materiel Configured in Unit Sets) set up 1960 onwards ).

[NutLoose]

One would assume with the US troops already in position they are being used, one was thinking more along the lines of transferring stuff from stocks that Ukraine wants, at least to Poland in a back door sort of way, to get supplies to the region, then when the US finally get their thumbs out of their bums and ok the aid, they are already there and ready to go.

[Lonewolf_50]

A bit "off-topic", though this dingy does not sound that good for the US it's carrier-based supremacy. Fire a couple of them to the mothership and it goes down to the bottom like Russian warships, having zero defense options against the Tsirkon. Could become pretty costly, losing both the carrier as well as its airplanes, having no place to go for landing. I'd say it's very much on topic, as a 'lesson learned' for maritime warfare. :ok: I have a suspicion that various folks at NAVSEA (Naval Sea Systems Command) have been working on this issue for a while, and even as far back as after the attack on the USS Cole. (Yes, in the USN, CIWS used to have a surface attack capability, but I am some years out of date on that).
Couldn't Biden preposition extra vehicles and weapons in support of NATO in the likes of Poland, build up a veritable stockpile of Bradley's, Patriot missiles, Stingers, Ammo etc, then if and when the budget is sorted, simply transfer them across the border into Ukraine? That would at least cut down the transportation time. The trick is to get those pre-positioned assets which Tartiflette Fan mentioned (intended for US Forces to use when deployed) turned over to an ally ... that could require some political deal making. See also the recent ploy to pass stuff to Greece ,who then passes stuff to Ukraine.

[Tartiflette Fan]

One would assume with the US troops already in position they are being used, one was thinking more along the lines of transferring stuff from stocks that Ukraine wants, at least to Poland in a back door sort of way, to get supplies to the region, then when the US finally get their thumbs out of their bums and ok the aid, they are already there and ready to go.

Read it but didn't really understand it . You seem to be saying that the US should have foreseen this type of conflict - is that correct ? If you are, it doesn't seem very reasonable, as top military folk were still saying "Yes he will/, no he won't " in early Feb 2022.

Does "being used" mean deployed from depots: but if so where? The M! and M2 definitely came from the US in desert camouflage.

EDIT: Re-read and speculate that maybe there are doctrines in place that don't allow POMCUS to be used for anything other than WW3 ( or WW3 exercises ) and so it was easier to use existing laws that allow the US to transfer defence stocks to allied powers at little or no cost other than transport ( as posited by LW50 above )

[Lonewolf_50]

Read it but didn't really understand it . You seem to be saying that the US should have foreseen this type of conflict - is that correct ? If you are, it doesn't seem very reasonable, as top military folk were still saying "Yes he will/, no he won't " in early Feb 2022.

Does "being used" mean deployed from depots: but if so where? The M! and M2 definitely came from the US in desert camouflage.

EDIT: Re-read and speculate that maybe there are doctrines in place that don't allow POMCUS to be used for anything other than WW3 ( or WW3 exercises ) and so it was easier to use existing laws that allow the US to transfer defence stocks to allied powers at little or no cost other than transport ( as posited by LW50 above ) As a practical matter, someone in the J4 of the Joint Chiefs would need to figure out - if something like this were to be approved - a time line for the proposed depletion of POMCUS stock and the backfill by MTMC (or whatever acronym they use now) from CONUS (or other) assets.
In plainer English: if 20 Bradleys were to be moved from a POMCUS site to somewhere in Ukraine, 20 others would need to show up in a port somewhere, get on a ship, and make it across to (wherever that POMCUS site is) to return that warehouse's stock level to the required number.
Since those cost quite a bit of money, would be very tough to do on the sly and thus a bit of political wheeling and dealing would doubtless be necessary...

[Tartiflette Fan]

As a practical matter, someone in the J4 of the Joint Chiefs would need to figure out - if something like this were to be approved - a time line for the proposed depletion of POMCUS stock and the backfill by MTMC (or whatever acronym they use now) from CONUS (or other) assets.
In plainer English: if 20 Bradleys were to be moved from a POMCUS site to somewhere in Ukraine, 20 others would need to show up in a port somewhere, get on a ship, and make it across to (wherever that POMCUS site is) to return that warehouse's stock level to the required number.
Since those cost quite a bit of money, would be very tough to do on the sly and thus a bit of political wheeling and dealing would doubtless be necessary...






just pure curiosiy here LW, but would there be a time-limit between exit-time and entry to port/entrainemnt or entering POMCUS ? I ask mainly to enquire just how closely the military body feels the need to nail down every step forward.

[NutLoose]

As a practical matter, someone in the J4 of the Joint Chiefs would need to figure out - if something like this were to be approved - a time line for the proposed depletion of POMCUS stock and the backfill by MTMC (or whatever acronym they use now) from CONUS (or other) assets.
In plainer English: if 20 Bradleys were to be moved from a POMCUS site to somewhere in Ukraine, 20 others would need to show up in a port somewhere, get on a ship, and make it across to (wherever that POMCUS site is) to return that warehouse's stock level to the required number.

Yes, but what I am suggesting is say the stocks held in Poland amount to 500 Bradleys, and the Army on arrival utilise 300, so the US would need to add 300 more to bring the stored stocks back up to date.
Now say Ukraine in its list of wants has asked for 100 more Bradleys, is there anything to stop the US military transferring not 300 more but 400 more to Poland meaning they are over stocked by 100. I.E increasing the stock holding.

They are still on the US stockholdings so are not breaking any laws re the block on aid, but are right next door to Ukraine, so if and when the aid green light is given, they are already next to where they need to be and do not have to wait for 100 to be drawn from US stocks at home and shipped... does that make sense, same goes for everything else requested, it's just an inventory shift, moving items from the US storage to European storage ready for when requested and approved.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in the war and leading to a redistribution of wealth

[ORAC]

Hmmm, a few thousand of those would be handy on Ukraine’s new generations of drones….

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/weapons-platforms/gbu-69-small-glide-munition/

GBU-69 Small Glide Munition

[FUMR]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in the war and leading to a redistribution of wealth

Perhaps not surprising considering their losses. But for how long can they sustain this?

[GlobalNav]

Perhaps not surprising considering their losses. But for how long can they sustain this?
A few well-placed explosions could affect that.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Yes, but what I am suggesting is say the stocks held in Poland amount to 500 Bradleys, and the Army on arrival utilise 300, so the US would need to add 300 more to bring the stored stocks back up to date.
Now say Ukraine in its list of wants has asked for 100 more Bradleys, is there anything to stop the US military transferring not 300 more but 400 more to Poland meaning they are over stocked by 100. I.E increasing the stock holding.

They are still on the US stockholdings so are not breaking any laws re the block on aid, but are right next door to Ukraine, so if and when the aid green light is given, they are already next to where they need to be and do not have to wait for 100 to be drawn from US stocks at home and shipped... does that make sense, same goes for everything else requested, it's just an inventory shift, moving items from the US storage to European storage ready for when requested and approved.

You are not being at all realistic. Being in POMCUS is 100% US property, and control, transferring them to Ukrainian control /use ( and possible destruction ) is 100% something else. Some organisations might faciitate that, but it doesn't seem tht the the US can/would.. If you don't agree , give examples of where it has been done.

[RatherBeFlying]

The strategy behind Ukraine's attacks on Russian warships and marine facilities and radars.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ukraine-grain-exports-agriculture-black-sea/

[Lonewolf_50]

just pure curiosity here LW, but would there be a time-limit between exit-time and entry to port/entrainemnt or entering POMCUS? I am a few years removed from all of that stuff, so I'd have to answer "it depends." Some major on the G staff working for Chief of Staff of the Army (in the Pentagon) would get out the stubby pencils and come up with various courses of action. Along the way I don't doubt there would be an order for 20 more (in the proposed example) to replace the ones sent over. Of course, that has to go into the POM as the current year budget probably would not get plussed up. It takes money and budgets to get that warfighting stuff all in one place, eh?
I ask mainly to enquire just how closely the military body feels the need to nail down every step forward. Heh, as I worked with my Army colleagues on various projects over the years, the 'chasing things down to the last detail' is a common approach before presenting a multi-million-dollar transfer of assets (to pretty much anywhere) for approval.
Yes, but what I am suggesting is say the stocks held in Poland amount to 500 Bradleys, and the Army on arrival utilise 300, so the US would need to add 300 more to bring the stored stocks back up to date. Now say Ukraine in its list of wants has asked for 100 more Bradleys, is there anything to stop the US military transferring not 300 more but 400 more to Poland meaning they are over stocked by 100. I.E increasing the stock holding. Just gonna say that, with the level of micromanagement that the information age has provided, disguising the transfer of that kind of combat power is not going to be slipped under the rug.
Not saying that it could not be done, but this is the kind of large muscle movement that gets many parties interested as it influences readiness posture in a material manner. (Also, if any of the fall in units are committed to NATO op plans, that would need to be worked out with (at least a courtesy brief, maybe more) in Brussels (NATO HQ, but maybe only in Mons at SACEUR) via the usual Mil-to-Mil contacts.
Perhaps not surprising considering their losses. But for how long can they sustain this? Depends on how many factories catch fire, I suppose.

[NutLoose]

A lot depends on sanctions, cutting off Russia ability to purchase modern technology such as sighting, jamming and all the electronics involved in modern armour. Then is finance, kill Russias means of sustaining the war by destroying their oil industry and hence their GDP. You are then on the way to destroying the means to fight a sustained war.

[ramble on]

Yeah, but you have the Chinese………

[Herod]

Looking at that spending, I recall that trying to match the US in space progress back in the seventies and eighties was a contributor to the break-up of the USSR. They were effectively bankrupt.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/15/european-coalition-to-rush-first-person-view-drones-to-ukraine/

European coalition to rush FPV drones to Ukraine

LONDON — European nations are setting up a drone coalition, led by Latvia and Britain, to supply and support the production of thousands of first-person-view drones (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/23/ukraine-continues-to-snap-up-chinese-dji-drones-for-its-defense/) for the Ukrainian military.

Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent alongside Latvia to join the drone coalition Feb 14th. The number of countries swelled further on Feb. 15 when the U.K. announced it was also joining the grouping as co-leader with Latvia.

“Along with the existing countries that have already joined the drone coalition, the U.K. will make a significant contribution by supporting Ukraine both with technology and helping to develop skills,” said Latvian defense minister Andris Sprūds.

The drone coalition intends to deliver one million drones to Ukraine, said the Latvian MoD in a statement. No timeline for the drone deliveries was given by officials in Riga….

“By signing the letter of intent, countries have agreed to commit resources for manufacturing of drones and will deliver these drones and spare parts to Ukraine, where they will be tested,” said the Latvian MoD.

The British will be the lead nation for scaling up and streamlining the West’s provision of the miniature drones (https://www.defensenews.com/electronic-warfare/2023/12/12/drones-jammers-in-ukraine-signal-new-era-of-warfare-del-toro-says/) to Ukraine. A spokesperson for the British MoD declined to give any details beyond saying a drone procurement process will be announced in due course.

As for Latvia’s role, the country is expected to host a drone school for Ukrainian operators and establish a test range to check the performance of drones, the British spokesperson said.

British Defence Secretary Gregg Shapps said the U.K. was already Kyiv’s largest drone supplier and had earmarked £200 million ($252 million) this year to manufacturing drones of various types destined for the battlefield.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced in January that aside from small, low-cost, uncrewed air vehicles the Ministry of Defence would be buying long-range strike, sea drones and other types under the pledge.….

The British MoD said it would be running an industry competition to produce large numbers of the drones at an affordable price.

The Royal United Services Institute think tank in London estimated last year that Ukraine was losing 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles a month.

[DogTailRed2]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in the war and leading to a redistribution of wealth

If history has taught us anything (recent events suggest not) it's that the country with the greatest industrial might wins.

[Spunky Monkey]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/15/european-coalition-to-rush-first-person-view-drones-to-ukraine/

European coalition to rush FPV drones to Ukraine

The Royal United Services Institute think tank in London estimated last year that Ukraine was losing 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles a month.

I am not so sure the word "Losing" is particularly apt, from the videos I have seen, it would appear many are performing as designed.
Creating a munition / vehicle interface.

[Herod]

Creating a munition / vehicle interface. Wonderful phrase. Thanks Spunky Monkey

[WideScreen]

I don't know the difference in effectiveness between a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile and a hypersonic ballistic missile, but UKA ground-air systems have proved that they can shoot down the latter, so we definitely shouldn't accept Putin's sales talk of "unstoppable, invincible " weapons.
Not so much, Western (??) experts claim the unstoppable aspect and it seems to be confirmed in Ukraine practice:

Russia used an advanced hypersonic missile for the first time in recent strike, Ukraine claims (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/ukraine-russia-zircon-hypersonic-missile-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)

Although air defenses have brought down Iskander missiles in the past, it is believed that Ukraine has failed to intercept a single Kh-22 in almost two years of war. Speaking in December, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said that Russia had fired almost 300 Kh-22s so far in the war.

..... But those are less-advanced than the Zircon.

[NutLoose]

You are not being at all realistic. Being in POMCUS is 100% US property, and control, transferring them to Ukrainian control /use ( and possible destruction ) is 100% something else. Some organisations might faciitate that, but it doesn't seem tht the the US can/would.. If you don't agree , give examples of where it has been done.

I never mentioned transferring them to Ukraine, I said increase the stock holding over and above the current levels in Europe, and THEN when the aid to Ukraine IS FINALLY AGREED, use those excess stocks to meet Ukraines requests, that will shorten the the supply line from having to be transferred from the USA, to being able to provide them from excess stocks held in Europe, thus shortening the delivery timeframe..

[NutLoose]

All because of a lack of Ammo..

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1758240794387816680

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1758240794387816680

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1758428348399697932

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1758428348399697932



.. (https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1758428348399697932)

[Tartiflette Fan]

Not so much, Western (??) experts claim the unstoppable aspect and it seems to be confirmed in Ukraine practice:

Russia used an advanced hypersonic missile for the first time in recent strike, Ukraine claims (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/ukraine-russia-zircon-hypersonic-missile-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)

The picture isn't at all clear. How many of this missile type have been fired and when/where ? Ukraine didn't get Patriots, NASAMS and IRIS-T until fairly late and the initial small numbers protected Kiev and ( possibly ) Odessa only. UKA AA systems have downed numerous of the "unstoppable " Kinzhal ( Mach 10 ) missile during the last 6-8 months.

EDIT:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-repelling-attacks-ukraine-early-tuesday-officials-2023-05-16/

KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a weapon Moscow has touted as a next-generation hypersonic missile that was all but unstoppable.
When asked about

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian minivan hit :(

https://twitter.com/Roberto05246129/status/1758306861047001521

https://twitter.com/Roberto05246129/status/1758306861047001521

[NutLoose]

Russian in Adviikva are 7:1 against Ukrainians. :(

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1758238098746417195

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1758238098746417195

https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1758409561403179366

https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1758409561403179366

[NutLoose]

Not my words, because words fail me in this situation.

The situation in #Avdiivka (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Avdiivka?src=hashtag_click) is very difficult. #Russia (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russia?src=hashtag_click) has an advantage not only in manpower but in weapons as well - it has accumulated resources and receives large shipments of weapons from its allies. While weapon supplies to become smaller, aid packages are not voted for.

We are not endless. Our Defenders die. They cannot come back. The war in Ukraine is not a local war somewhere far away. It's a huge and horrible war in Europe. And that's a war that will reach other peaceful countries. Don't wait for it to come to your home. #ArmUkraineToWin (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ArmUkraineToWin?src=hashtag_click)

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1758436145216516418

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1758436145216516418

[NutLoose]

:(.....

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1758202133160092023

[NutLoose]

???? Fresh ration deliveries? Ignore the posters comments as they are pro russian

https://twitter.com/DarknessMoon21/status/1757487546324459658

https://twitter.com/DarknessMoon21/status/1757487546324459658