Ukraine War Thread Part 2 [Archive] - Page 32

havoc

14th Jan 2024, 17:11

ISW calls Ukraine disabling over 20 Russian missiles with EW stations "inflection" (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/isw-calls-ukraine-disabling-over-20-russian-missiles-with-ew-stations-inflection/ar-AA1mWdfm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=f4a651bf9879472b83b390b259441e2c&ei=60)The disabling of over 20 missiles with the help of "active countermeasures by means of electronic warfare" can be a turning point in Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2024))

Details: Military analysts say EW assets were usually credited with disabling Russian drones but not missile systems.

The ISW has previously assessed that Russia's strike campaign against Ukraine and Ukrainian adaptation to counter new Russian strike systems are part of a broader tactical and technological attack-defence race between long-range aviation and air defence capabilities.

Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, noted that the Russian missile strike on 13 January was similar to the strike that Russian troops launched on 8 January and in previous times. The Institute for the Study of War believes that Ihnat’s words indicate that Ukrainian forces can recognize patterns in repeated Russian attacks and, accordingly, introduce innovations and adapt to them.

Earlier:

Over 20 Russian missiles and drones failed (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/13/7437062/) to reach their targets during Russia's combined air attack on Ukraine on the morning of 13 January because they exploded mid-flight, landed in unpopulated areas, or met with an effective response from Ukrainian electronic warfare (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/13/7437099/).

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 January:

・A recent video appeal by a Serbian mercenary addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin has unleashed discussions about an ongoing "clan war" within the Kremlin and the Russian information space against the backdrop of the Russian presidential campaign.

・In-fighting and factional dynamics within the Kremlin are not new phenomena and do not indicate the imminent collapse of Putin’s regime, particularly because power verticals are the foundation of Putin's regime.

・Russian forces launched a medium-sized drone, missile, and air attack against Ukraine on the night of 12-13 January using a strike package similar to recent Russian strike packages.

・Russian forces are reportedly increasingly using chemical weapons in Ukraine in continued apparent violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.

・A fire destroyed a large warehouse in St. Petersburg belonging to Russia’s largest online retailer Wildberries on 12 January.

・Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire front line.

・Russian forces may be forming air assault brigades within combined arms ground formations as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.

・Russian officials continue to fund social projects in occupied Ukraine in an effort to integrate these territories further into Russia and create the veneer of an active civil society in occupied areas.

rattman

14th Jan 2024, 20:08

Russian telegrams are freaking out / doom posting they lost communications with one of thier A-50 AWACS (RF-50601 / 50 RED.) that was patroling the sea of Azov near berdyansk

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1746643423560372505

ORAC

14th Jan 2024, 21:27

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1746651698284896527?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

BREAKING: Ukraine confirms to have shot down two Russian planes over occupied Berdyansk on the Azov Sea:

- Russian A-50 AWACS IL-76 reconnaissance plane. ($300m)
- Russian IL-22, possibly the Special Mission variant PP radar jammer (pictured).

Distress messages intercepted.

UPDATE: The IL-22 in question appears to have been the M variant rather than the PP variant.

By preliminary information, the A-50 aircraft was shot down.

The Il-22 aircraft was damaged but was in the air and was attempting to reach the nearest airfield. However, it disappeared from radars after it started its descent, in Kerch area.

DogTailRed2

14th Jan 2024, 21:54

Isn't reporting that your counter measures are countering the enemies missiles akin to the BBC reporting the Argentinians bombs were failing to arm during the Falklands?
Keep the enemy in ignorance and they won't correct the mistake.

nonsense

14th Jan 2024, 22:46

It would appear Ukraine has been trying to up the Russian troops moral, but not their Generals.

https://twitter.com/ictusconfirmed/status/1746578094419222577
"BREAKING!! The Russian Colonel General Teplinsky is a cuckold" -
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1720784531400049000

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 01:10

Recording of the IL-22 requesting fire crews and ambulance's as it was diverting for a landing

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1746670795512848453

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1746670795512848453

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 01:15

Ohhh dear never mind……..

Some Russians now claim the IL-22M was hit by Russia's own air defense by mistake. Since the plane managed to land afterward and it's rather difficult to imagine the aircraft would've survived a PATRIOT missile hit, this is plausible
UPDATE: The strike on the Russian IL-22M Mission Command aircraft was preceded by an air raid alert over the Kerch Bridge. Probability that the aircraft was shot down by Russia's own air defense is now quite high.

If the Russian A-50 AWACS Radar Aircraft was indeed shot down over occupied Strilkove, it was within range of the PATRIOT PAC-2 surface-to-air missile, if launched from Dnipro's right bank in the liberated Kherson region close to the frontline.

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 01:28

Russia now producing 100 missiles per month.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1746555809603981710

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1746555809603981710

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 01:32

The west is still supplying Russia with critical parts.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1745447613611311444

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1745447613611311444

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1746668654677422233

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1746668654677422233

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 08:54

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1746801190535627061?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Spectacular vaporization of a Russian tank by a $500 Ukrainian drone on the frontline in Avdiivka.

golfbananajam

15th Jan 2024, 08:59

It might just be a pair of F16, but they are being flown by Ukrainians. :ok:

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1724055557387010403
Nice to see but am I right in thinking that flying them is the easy bit, fighting with them is where the real skill and training is needed?

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 10:18

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi has posted a message in regards to the downed A-50/IL-22M11.

"The Air Force of Ukraine destroyed an enemy A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an enemy IL-22 airborne control center.

“I thank the Air Force for the perfectly planned and executed operation in the Azov Sea,"

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 10:35

Nice to see but am I right in thinking that flying them is the easy bit, fighting with them is where the real skill and training is needed?

And that brings up an interesting question, many moons ago there was a show on TV featuring visiting western Fighters for combined exercises, F-15, F-16 and Fulcrums If I remember correctly. One thing on the show, the US pilot mentioned was while flying in exercises they had to be careful not to show the Ukrainians the full Gamut of NATO air comber tactics, ie just give them some snippets. I take it this will have changed now and they are being shown how to fight the F-16?

Here you go, more on the combined exercises.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44965/u-s-f-15-pilot-on-what-it-is-like-fighting-against-ukraines-fighter-pilots

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 10:42

Radar mapping of the aircraft engagement over the Sea of Azov

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1746832537576477091

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1746832537576477091

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 11:25

Earlier this week, Lockheed announced the delivery of the first two (out of a total order of 14) F-16Vs to Slovakia 👏

Slovakia has lacked any operational fixed-wing fighters since the country donated its entire fleet of 13 MiG-29s to Ukraine in 2023.

DogTailRed2

15th Jan 2024, 11:34

Is anyone able to interpret the radar engagement posted in #7769? It doesn't make a lot of sense to me?

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 11:35

Photos of the IL-22, that's gonna need a ****load of filler!

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/539x850/gd4iey2xeaapg0y_9a7a3d9d2def7d3f9b959c528be7fc0ae3b6a6e5.jpg

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1746871293130018915

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1746871293130018915

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 11:39

We ermmmm... Brits shot them down lol... :D

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1746868670117150910

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/590x877/image_b2d757ac2be5f431782aea80a3cab4d3659563d7.png

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 12:11

We ermmmm... Brits shot them down lol... :D
This is so hare-brained, nutty and wrong in so many ways that I wasnt sure whether it should be here or in the conspiracy thread…..

Regardless, this a Russian milblogger WRT the shooting down of their A-50 AWACS and damage to their IL-22M….

Makes you proud to be British they way they’re still so paranoid about us….

. 👀👀👀👀👀

https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1746868670117150910?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 12:47

I don't know what's worse. Tell the Russian public that the aircraft were taken down by your own forces, so as to hint that Ukraine hasn't the ability, but in doing so, make your own military look like a bunch of cretins?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746798486295650379

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746798486295650379

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 13:01

Problems with ice on the Dnipro, if it freezes over will it cause problems for both sides to hold the area?

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1746609344441995280

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1746609344441995280

GeeRam

15th Jan 2024, 14:40

We ermmmm... Brits shot them down lol... :D

Probably no worse that the stories being banded about by some in the west (maybe sourced from those in Russia) that these were downed by the Rafale and Gripen fighters that the Ukrainians have already been given and that are being flown by 'volunteers'.

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 14:58

Two for the price of one…

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1746879484475719961?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

59th Brigade destroys Russian armored vehicle loaded with ammunition under the bridge on the Avdiivka front which causes one side of bridge to collapse.

ORAC

15th Jan 2024, 15:14

Not sure about the bodies - the aircraft was reportedly brought down over the Sea of Azov - but interesting about the senior officer on board, perhaps to be able to make ROE decisions which the Russians keep at a high level.

https://x.com/aborealis940/status/1746895360809705515?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Downed A-50 pilots were found near Berdyansk, their frozen remains lie in the snow ☠️

According to independent sources, Oleg Volodymyrovych Bdzhola, deputy commander of long-range aviation of the Russian Air Force, was on board the plane.

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 15:58

Cargo200 commander of the downed A50 plane - lieutenant colonel Vyacheslav Volodymyrovych Levchenko, co-pilot Artur Izmaylov

https://twitter.com/MaluVFX/status/1746903904464334898

https://twitter.com/MaluVFX/status/1746903904464334898

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 16:00

More fires or the aircraft crash?

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1746899905912643607

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1746899905912643607

rattman

15th Jan 2024, 18:00

https://twitter.com/MaluVFX/status/1746903904464334898

IL-20 recovered, photos coming out now

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746875653968863696

The A-50 was hit over water unless it flew long enough to make it over land before crashing they cant be from the A-50

fdr

15th Jan 2024, 22:17

IL-20 recovered, photos coming out now

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746875653968863696

The A-50 was hit over water unless it flew long enough to make it over land before crashing they cant be from the A-50

The A-50 "Mainstay" is a variant of the IL-76, which is a T-tail... Pretty sure this isn't an A-50. But given how upside down Russia is on their 3-day vacation in Ukraine, it can't be discounted completely.

fdr

15th Jan 2024, 22:27

This is so hare-brained, nutty and wrong in so many ways that I wasnt sure whether it should be here or in the conspiracy thread…..

Regardless, this a Russian milblogger WRT the shooting down of their A-50 AWACS and damage to their IL-22M….

Makes you proud to be British they way they’re still so paranoid about us….

. 👀👀👀👀👀

Hmmm. parking an IL-22 and an A-50 within "manped" distance would be worthy of a Darwin Award, not to mention that they would be compromising their surveillance volume markedly to boot. However, us perfidious Albion types would also need to look at why a 'manned" which is going to be mainly optical tracking or IR has gone for the cool bits of the IL-22. Methinks that the Pk that this was an own goal with a radar guided missile, of some substantial warhead size, is non zero. Ukraine can get the credit, not sure Albion rated a mention, but if so, well done.

How many men have to carry a manpad of the size in order to shred with buckets of kgs of frag and missile body a cold airframe part of a plane? This has the hall marks of being an S-300/S-400, it's not likely to even be a red-on-red with a BUK. Pretty sure it isn't a manpad.

But, let's not change Vlad's mind, thinking that even the dolphins are shooting at his team is a good thing for morale.

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 22:52

The A-50 was hit over water unless it flew long enough to make it over land before crashing they cant be from the A-50

I don’t see why not, remember the Lockerbie disaster, winds scattered victims and debris along an 81-mile-long corridor 845 square miles in area.

rattman

15th Jan 2024, 23:13

The A-50 "Mainstay" is a variant of the IL-76, which is a T-tail... Pretty sure this isn't an A-50. But given how upside down Russia is on their 3-day vacation in Ukraine, it can't be discounted completely.

Forgot to put in a quote but that was a reply to post from nutloose claiming the bodies were of the crew were from A-50

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 23:15

Sweden increases ammo production, and Canada preps more vehicles for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1746149251841663183

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1746149251841663183

https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1746153945146200311

https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1746153945146200311

fdr

15th Jan 2024, 23:36

https://twitter.com/MaluVFX/status/1746903904464334898

FWIW, the likelihood that this video is of crew with any relation to the A-50 is vanishingly small. That the plane was probably hit by it's own side is worthy of applause, kudos to Air Defence, but, an aircraft terminating it's operations on water or turf doesn't result in a neat and orderly presentation of the occupants. These bodies in the snow didn't come off a crashed aircraft, and there is no way that a crew, being able to bail out (no ejection seats) are going to end up in the same location as this shows. Had they been mobile after a bailout, and all got together to sing kumbaya awaiting the glorious presence of Vlads finest troops to rescue them, they would not be dispersed as they are, they would be clustered for thermal loss reduction. None of this video rings true, including the clothing that the crew are supposed to be wearing. Sudden deceleration of an aircraft and occupants is untidy and unfortunately memorable, and it doesn't look neat n tidy like this. Why someone would put forward a video like this lost upon me, it doesn't make an own goal any more palatable than the 3-day own goal that has raged now for coming up towards 700 days.

NutLoose

15th Jan 2024, 23:48

Meanwhile on the Belarus border.

https://twitter.com/WarNews1819143/status/1746967734108197137

https://twitter.com/WarNews1819143/status/1746967734108197137

DogTailRed2

16th Jan 2024, 04:03

FWIW, the likelihood that this video is of crew with any relation to the A-50 is vanishingly small. That the plane was probably hit by it's own side is worthy of applause, kudos to Air Defence, but, an aircraft terminating it's operations on water or turf doesn't result in a neat and orderly presentation of the occupants. These bodies in the snow didn't come off a crashed aircraft, and there is no way that a crew, being able to bail out (no ejection seats) are going to end up in the same location as this shows. Had they been mobile after a bailout, and all got together to sing kumbaya awaiting the glorious presence of Vlads finest troops to rescue them, they would not be dispersed as they are, they would be clustered for thermal loss reduction. None of this video rings true, including the clothing that the crew are supposed to be wearing. Sudden deceleration of an aircraft and occupants is untidy and unfortunately memorable, and it doesn't look neat n tidy like this. Why someone would put forward a video like this lost upon me, it doesn't make an own goal any more palatable than the 3-day own goal that has raged now for coming up towards 700 days.
I've seen photo's of WW2 aircraft, heavies like Lancaster's and B17's where the crew are exactly deposited around the aircraft. I'm not suggesting these images of the Russian aircraft are real but it can happen. Just depends how the aircraft came down. They don't all nose in at a rate of knots.

ORAC

16th Jan 2024, 06:21

https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1747004699520200884?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

I do not know either way and am not confirming anything, but the prevalent consensus is that the A-50 and Il-22 were hit using the mythical FrakenSAM which is the combination of the radar and launch controller from and S-300 with a Patriot launcher and rockets (pic. 1).

FYI: It appears the UkrAF also targeted and Su-34 at the same time that had fired a Kh-59 over the Sea of Azov in the same area as the other two planes. The pilot reported being lit-up by an S-300 radar and the crew was able to evade the missile.

------------------------------------------------------

Operation for the destruction of Izh-22M11 and a-50

Examining the recordings from the conversation between the pilot/ navigator of the Su-34, we heard how he says that his side is probably illuminated by the Z0N6 radar, calling it No. 300-koi. He also reports evasion from hitting the missile after the launch of the X-59 over the Sea of Azov.

Given that this is a planned departure, and the launch vehicle was produced over the same area, we can assume that it was a prepared operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, most likely with the use of the Patriot complex (missiles) together with 3 radars of the S-300PS complex. this option is considered through the FrankenSam program, which allows this option."

------------------------------------------------------

Operation Frankenstein

Last night we witnessed an interesting precedent in this war. Ukrainian air defense units were able to shoot down and hit two rare and important aircraft of the Russian air defense system: DRLV (AWACS) A-50 and Il-22M11 (PKP)

What did the planes shoot down? Based on the fact that the distance to the A-50 shootdown from the front line is less than 100 km, the only weapon in the armed forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that can hit an aircraft-type target is the (Patriot) PAC-2 GEM-T/GEM-C anti-aircraft missile. And here comes an interesting detail: the pilot of the Russian Su-34 (launching the X-59) during a conversation with the dispatcher, reported that his plane came under the radiation of the "300-tka" radar (that is, the S-300), which was previously reported by the onboard SPO. After that, he performed an evasive maneuver from the anti-aircraft missile that was probably fired at him.

The X-59 launch itself took place over the same region of the Sea of Azov (as the attacks on the A-50 and Il-22). Today, sources from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed the destruction of their aircraft by the Patriot complex.

Logical explanation: the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out an operation to attack these planes, knowing in advance all the details of the flight. To avoid the loss of the expensive AN/MPQ-53 radar, as part of the FrankenSAM program, it was replaced with a S-300 complex radar or another Ukrainian-made radar. This hypothesis also explains the fact that the Russians could not detect the Patriot air defense system by the characteristic radiation of its radar. We have certain confirmations from sources

VANGUARD

#OSINT #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #UkraineKrieg #UkraineWar
.https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x960/image_7dd361cfd72c2ce1210d97044decbb659b2d494e.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x960/image_c0e7f122ecfcb1638b8d354e542bc4165ef55333.png

ORAC

16th Jan 2024, 06:36

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1746897267179610258?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Explosions were heard in the Rostov Region at one of the largest chemical enterprises in the south of the Russian Federation

A fire started at the state-owned Kamensky Combine in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

Local residents reported explosions before the fire started. Workers were evacuated.

Beamr

16th Jan 2024, 08:07

Breaking: first images of British SAS operators conducting raids in Crimea have emerged.
Rumour is that they belong to a very secret group called the Meal team six.
All we know is that one member is missing from the pictures.

https://twitter.com/Kama_Kamilia/status/1746977549131931954

https://twitter.com/Kama_Kamilia/status/1746977549131931954

B Fraser

16th Jan 2024, 09:30

All we know is that one member is missing from the pictures.

One of them bought the farm.

And on that bombshell....... ;)

NutLoose

16th Jan 2024, 09:37

A different view of the IL-22M hit over the sea of Azov

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x763/gd9oyplxyaekele_2f3075622fcb4f752ceba5a73b4c393799f53b2e.jpg

As someone has pointed out the top of the fin is missing.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747013572402553050

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747013572402553050

ORAC

16th Jan 2024, 11:43

Or designed with a frangible joint to break off rather than take the tail with it under stress.

Reminiscent of the F3 RHWR a5 high AOA…

NutLoose

16th Jan 2024, 11:55

So they break into your apartment to forcibly conscript you, you pull a knife to defend yourself, result, they shoot you dead... Conscription Russian style.

https://twitter.com/tweetforAnna/status/1747191647983579476

https://twitter.com/tweetforAnna/status/1747191647983579476

keith williams

16th Jan 2024, 12:10

Bit of a shortcut in the overall process. The victim ends up dead at home instead of dead in a ukrainian cornfield. Just cuts out a lot of the suffering.

Video Mixdown

16th Jan 2024, 12:32

Or designed with a frangible joint to break off rather than take the tail with it under stress.
Reminiscent of the F3 RHWR a5 high AOA…
Even so, unlucky for Ukraine. They came within a split second of blowing the whole tail off.

NutLoose

16th Jan 2024, 13:26

I've seen photo's of WW2 aircraft, heavies like Lancaster's and B17's where the crew are exactly deposited around the aircraft. I'm not suggesting these images of the Russian aircraft are real but it can happen. Just depends how the aircraft came down. They don't all nose in at a rate of knots.

As I mentioned there was a 80 odd mile debris field at Lockerbie, so I cannot see why the crew were not sucked out by a massive decompression when the jet was hit.

They would one assume be operating significantly higher than a Lanc to maximise their intel gathering. the jet as in lockerbie shows parts could be miles away from the crash site, and landing in snow would have cushioned to impact, indeed crew members have been known to survive falling from aircraft without a chute.
Indeed it is believed a couple of those on the Lockerbie crash may have survived the fall.

Thrust Augmentation

16th Jan 2024, 19:53

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/955x1060/gd184l0xoaatuae_bc127b3faa9d55fe6c91ab68ba7834e965645a29.jpg

skridlov

16th Jan 2024, 22:04

An iteresting, detailed, analysis of the recent shootdown of the Russian AEW aircraft.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-16-january-2024-scratch?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:00

More on the extra scalp, not seen that submarine picture before.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1747372271969202664

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1747372271969202664

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:04

And the next cuckoo needing a clock is……

Russia invaded Ukraine to stop Ukraine invading Europe and starting WW3, they saved us all from WW3.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747317541716754443

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747317541716754443

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:17

Let’s hope there is some good news on Taurus.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1747373814869008803

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1747373814869008803

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:28

A Bradley at work taking out an abandoned bmp.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747357238564454535

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747357238564454535

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:31

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747327676719788406

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747327676719788406

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 01:37

A good selection of captured troops for exchange.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1746957187794993586

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1746957187794993586

GlobalNav

17th Jan 2024, 02:29

And the next cuckoo needing a clock is……

Russia invaded Ukraine to stop Ukraine invading Europe and starting WW3, they saved us all from WW3.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747317541716754443

Which, of course, is why Europe is arming Ukraine and not Russia.

Rockie_Rapier

17th Jan 2024, 09:39

Today' Guardian (http://Belarus will put forward a new military doctrine that provides for the use of nuclear weapons A new military doctrine that for the first time provides for the use of nuclear weapons will be put forward by Belarus, its defence minister said on Tuesday according to the Associated Press. “We clearly communicate Belarus’ views on the use of tactical nuclear weapons stationed on our territory,” defence minister, Viktor Khrenin, said at a meeting of Belarus’ security council. “A new chapter has appeared, where we clearly define our allied obligations to our allies.” The doctrine is to be presented for approval to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a representative body that operates in Belarus in parallel with the parliament. Belarus, closely allied with Russia, had both tactical and long-range nuclear weapons when it was part of the Soviet Union, but transferred them to Russia after the USSR’s collapse. Russia sent tactical nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus last year, although there are no details about how many. Russia has said it will maintain control over those weapons, which are intended for battlefield use and have short ranges and comparatively low yields. It’s not immediately clear how the new doctrine might be applied to the Russian weapons. Russia used Belarus territory as a springboard to send its troops into Ukraine in February 2022, and has maintained its military bases and weapons there, although Belarusian troops have not taken part in the war. Security council secretary, Alexander Volfovich, said that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is intended to deter aggression from Poland, a Nato member. “Unfortunately, statements by our neighbours, in particular Poland … forced us to strengthen” the military doctrine, he said.)

Belarus will put forward a new military doctrine that provides for the use of nuclear weapons

A new military doctrine that for the first time provides for the use of nuclear weapons will be put forward by Belarus, its defence minister said on Tuesday according to the Associated Press.

“We clearly communicate Belarus’ views on the use of tactical nuclear weapons stationed on our territory,” defence minister, Viktor Khrenin, said at a meeting of Belarus’ security council. “A new chapter has appeared, where we clearly define our allied obligations to our allies.”

The doctrine is to be presented for approval to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a representative body that operates in Belarus in parallel with the parliament. Belarus, closely allied with Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia), had both tactical and long-range nuclear weapons when it was part of the Soviet Union, but transferred them to Russia after the USSR’s collapse.

Russia sent tactical nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus last year, although there are no details about how many. Russia has said it will maintain control over those weapons, which are intended for battlefield use and have short ranges and comparatively low yields. It’s not immediately clear how the new doctrine might be applied to the Russian weapons.

Russia used Belarus territory as a springboard to send its troops into Ukraine in February 2022, and has maintained its military bases and weapons there, although Belarusian troops have not taken part in the war.

Security council secretary, Alexander Volfovich, said that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is intended to deter aggression from Poland, a Nato member. “Unfortunately, statements by our neighbours, in particular Poland … forced us to strengthen” the military doctrine, he said.

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 12:00

:ok:

https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/status/1744013259013751152

https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/status/1744013259013751152

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 12:06

More on the latests Russian assault on Aviivka, they attacked in three waves but were driven back.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747315768595722495

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747315768595722495

NutLoose

17th Jan 2024, 12:21

Russian helicopter down away from the front.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1747530039736905815

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1747530039736905815

Low average

17th Jan 2024, 17:40

Today's MoD update.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1747544627257745426?t=HLr3qH_gHG2OV0VLDJL87Q&s=19

Wokkafans

17th Jan 2024, 22:59

"Amazing additional footage from the Russian T-90M «Breakthrough» tank that got wrecked by the 25mm cannon of a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV at Stepove, Donetsk Region."

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747741801451045078?s=20

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1747741801451045078?s=20

Sure made a mess of it and its ERA.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1849x1002/gefgwvaxkaa8wip_04f5eb78e0f2d37c71c4cb69e62ffc737f57edb5.jpg

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 00:14

They are now talking of the possibility of Russians entering Poland wearing Ukrainian Uniforms, carrying Ukrainian passports etc but in reality being Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1747677459422617718

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1747677459422617718

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 00:48

Are they just coming to the realisation, that what we on here have been spouting for years is the possible solution, and the answer to that is the long range weaponry that they STILL are not providing nearly two years in. The ability to drop the Bridge and all infrastructure into Crimea will cut off one of the major supply routes to the war.

I sometimes wonder what the **** the West are doing, from the Republican Party with their hands drenched in Ukrainian blood, to the German government, and their seeming intransigence to give Ukraine the one weapon that could possibly attain the results needed and end the war.

It just beggars belief and I can totally see what Putin is doing, massive air attacks to bleed the remaining air defence assets in the region dry while doing similar on the ground.

America snatching defeat from victory, I do hope those in the Republican Party have nightmares as to the genocide they are participating in. They talked about not wanting Ukraine to become another Afghanistan, have they not figured out that if Ukraine falls and NATO is threatened the Europe will become their Afghanistan.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1747154507782369325

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1747154507782369325

ORAC

18th Jan 2024, 05:55

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2024/01/18/biden-hosts-hill-leaders-as-congress-inches-toward-ukraine-deal/

Biden hosts Hill leaders as Congress inches toward Ukraine deal

ORAC

18th Jan 2024, 08:58

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1747894083693982016?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian Telegram channels report that a drone fell and exploded on the territory of the "Petersburg oil terminal."

According to the Russian defense ministry, that happened in the course of a drone attack on the Leningrad region, the first one since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

The St Petersburg oil terminal is the largest Russian terminal for the transshipment of petroleum products in the Baltic region (throughput capacity is 12.5 million tons per year), as well as the largest stevedoring company of the Big Port of St. Petersburg.

Beamr

18th Jan 2024, 09:40

Ukrainians testing a jet powered drone.
That cart they use to launch it reminds me of the dolly they used with the Me 163.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1747661760545325340

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1747661760545325340

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 11:50

A fascinating 4 minute plus chat with the defenders of Adviivka on tactics used by Russia and drones.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747922120812744809

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747922120812744809

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 12:08

France also supply Ukraine and will transfer AASM (Armement Air-Sol Modulaire) HAMMER precision-guided aerial munitions to Ukraine "Ukraine will receive approximately 50 such hybrid bombs every month.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747934879000432764

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747934879000432764

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 12:10

There are reports of another ship possibly sunk in Sevastopol.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747924488207905164

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747924488207905164

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 17:44

A short film showing the operation and interior of the T-90m.

https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1747991218246598836

https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1747991218246598836

BlankBox

18th Jan 2024, 22:14

While out on reconnaissance, the drone from the 68th Jaeger Brigade spotted a wounded comrade, provided him with tea and instructions to follow the drone. The drone helps an evacuation team find the wounded comrade to safety (https://v.redd.it/nzpf2upxm9dc1)

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/19a19lm/while_out_on_reconnaissance_the_drone_from_the/

NutLoose

18th Jan 2024, 23:17

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 00:05

Canada is chasing the USA to send the air defence system they paid for to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1747982481880387863

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1747982481880387863

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 00:12

This is a problem that the west really needs to address, it is like a one legged ass kicking contest, Ukraine should have the freedom to target those launchers, especially as they are now using Iranian and North Korean missiles, they have no qualms in allowing them to be launched into Ukraine, the west should have the same response, let them retaliate.

https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1746218145486881010

https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1746218145486881010

fdr

19th Jan 2024, 00:53

Russia reported as firing a P-35 missile of the coastal missile complex "Redut" to strike Ukraine, Its range is 300/460 km, speed - 2000 km/h, and the weight of the warhead ~ 1000 kg. The complex itself was adopted in 1962 and was produced until 1983 It is reported that the P-35 was intercepted by the means of air defense of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748047217607196949

In the boost phase, it is fairly fast. The intake says that the suggested speed is not the cruise speed thereafter, but the pony had a fairly reasonable "bollard" pull, (methinks that the RU considers that to be static thrust) of 2250kg... about 4600 lbf. The indicated cruise speed is subsonic... try 300m/sec, M0.9 or thereabouts at the high end. It is a vanilla version of the SS-N-3 Shaddock, that used to be plonked into the bins of the Echo-II tub, Juliets, even the Whiskey Twin bin, Kynda's and Krista I's; all favourites about the time that Oswald was complaining about being a patsy. Before Gemini, about the same vintage as Jupiter's.... Bay o' Pigs, etc. The age of chrome and finned fenders, white wall tyres etc.

Now presumably the mice have gone past their use by date, and the GCS has been improved, as much as anything in Russia has improved in the last 60 years.

Would think that being outside of the circle where fuel may carry one of these relics is sound safety advice. Add to do not fly over T-72s, T-80s, T-90's when turret launching is in progress.

How long until we see IL-2 Sturmoviks being wheeled out of museums to support the SK "Ilya Muromets" being cobbled together as a technology demonstrator of Russian tech. They can repurpose the remaining uniforms of the #200's, use Lada engines, and just go out and cut down some trees in the steppes... not too many left in the bits of Ukraine where Russia has been tilling the soil with T-72 turret landings etc.

Low average

19th Jan 2024, 06:34

fdr

19th Jan 2024, 07:08

I'm surprised more is not being said about Russian casualties, they look very heavy this Winter.

X is a constant torrent of footage showing Russians meeting FPV drones, snipers, Bradleys, mines. I'm sure there is similair on Telegram showing Ukranian casualties, but more difficult to find.

The A-50 that Ukraine shot down had 15 crew. No mention of their fate either.

Are Russians completely blind to this heavy attrition of their sons and fathers? It must be horrendous, and I don't know why Putin is allowed to keep the silence.

As Putin is a dictator, the options are limited and they all end in tears, it is only who sheds the tears being the question. It is easier to accept that the pathological society that Russia has devolved to, which is slowly circling the drain... ; that the state takes responsibility for the lies it tells, and therefore staying quiet avoids the opportunity to paint the walls of some Russian prison cell with a hint of brain. As long as those dying aren't them, they are betting that the odds favour their silence and obedience to the chief architect of their current state of affairs. Remarkably, they have a keen following in the US Govt, and a number of Western media moguls and personalities seem to bask in the promise of mana from Moscow. The west can't do much to change the mind of the average Russian, after 1100 years and lots to talent like Pavlov, they are still barking mad. We can however hold the HoR and Senate quislings to account, it is just less satisfying, but it is effective. As far as the ultra right, wist to be a nazi media moguls, well, justice... matters.

t43562

19th Jan 2024, 10:58

As Putin is a dictator, the options are limited and they all end in tears, it is only who sheds the tears being the question. It is easier to accept that the pathological society that Russia has devolved to, which is slowly circling the drain... ; that the state takes responsibility for the lies it tells, and therefore staying quiet avoids the opportunity to paint the walls of some Russian prison cell with a hint of brain. As long as those dying aren't them, they are betting that the odds favour their silence and obedience to the chief architect of their current state of affairs.....

Putin is mobilising people from the regions outside Moscow to avoid upsetting the people who are in densely enough populated areas from causing him trouble. He has the Russians by every hair they have - the ones who can be fooled are fooled, those who can be scared are scared, those who can be bought are bought and everyone else is encouraged to feel apathy that they cannot change anything. The way for a country to get out of a problem like this is to not get into it.

ACW342

19th Jan 2024, 12:10

Warning, Aviation content with aeroplanes!! Interesting watching Jake 17 and RRR7219 playing a duet on FR24

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:15

NATO says we should prepare for an all out war with Russia in the next 20 years.... That is supposing whoever takes over from Putin has the same goals as him.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748305935993385126

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748305935993385126

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:20

So the war has helped Russia purge the country of people who did not belong as part of Russia, I.e those that fled, the trouble is a lot that stayed did not have the means to flee so his logic is flawed.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747985980835987616

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747985980835987616

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:23

A sucker born every day, check out the complete film from Rambo china style.

[QUOTE]https://twitter.com/_FreyaFae/status/1748327974464631047/QUOTE]

https://twitter.com/_FreyaFae/status/1748327974464631047

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:24

A replacement A-50 has replaced the lost one on station, I bet there are a few puckering ring pieces on board lol.

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1748290296348098639

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1748290296348098639

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:27

Aviation content:

Whoa, that's low.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1745589005503328379

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1745589005503328379

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:33

More Russian oil storage taken out by drones.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748258009686376579

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748258009686376579

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748296445780701266

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748296445780701266

Love it :)

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x536/gema8zxxaaacjf2_5fcdf4c0da29d4cbc0321ed2679ec1e6aae67c00.jpg

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:38

Testing combat drones.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747780208688521670

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747780208688521670

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 12:40

Aviation Content:

Russian helicopter emergency landing after hitting cables, I am surprised he got that down upright.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747604209434792359

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747604209434792359

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x672/gec9woexgaaglpl_28cbee03532bd9f23485060c7c8959daf9c83153.jpg

Lonewolf_50

19th Jan 2024, 13:01

Canada is chasing the USA to send the air defence system they paid for to Ukraine. Seems a reasonable request, to deliver what was paid for.
NATO says we should prepare for an all out war with Russia in the next 20 years.... That is supposing whoever takes over from Putin has the same goals as him.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748305935993385126 Great. We are back to 1967 again. :p

Geriaviator

19th Jan 2024, 14:22

Warning, Aviation content with aeroplanes!! Interesting watching Jake 17 and RRR7219 playing a duet on FR24
NATO01 seems to have taken over from the RAF but covering the same area with JAKE17. I wonder is something brewing south of Moldova?

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 15:37

Satellite views of the sunken guard ship in Sevestapol that was hit in Dec but only learnt about in the last few days.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748350597491781905

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748350597491781905

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 15:45

More Ukrainian low level flying.

Teacloc (https://twitter.com/Teacloc) Low altitude? SOB is mowing the lawn.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748326182557229102

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748326182557229102

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 15:51

It looks like Ukraine is taking a leaf out of the Nissen hut construction simplicity to build underground command bunkers.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748363211169017920

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748363211169017920

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 15:55

For Low Average :)

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x900/gelz8dcxoaa5ony_d03b17cd4b41db41490e2e65ea986cf633e60e2c.jpg

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 16:04

A rare sighting of a Challenger in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748317809782694205

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1748317809782694205

More on the Bastion-P missile that was shot down, this is the launchers etc spotted in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1748341944202244322

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1748341944202244322

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 16:17

An M1a1 spotted with reactive armour installed, another rarity to see.

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1747021969336492393

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1747021969336492393

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 16:23

Russian engineers are on the verge of a drone breakthrough.

Maria Berlinska, founder of the Air Intelligence Support Centre, said that the Russian Federation is "on the verge of a technological breakthrough" that could make the Ukrainian EW systems ineffective against Russian drones.

"The biggest danger is automatic optical guidance and navigation systems. Now Russian engineers are on the verge of a certain technological breakthrough. We are already seeing cases when they apply automatic homing in FPV drones next to thermal imaging cameras.

The role of an operator is minimized. It is automatic target acquisition, and the drone is becoming more and more autonomous. Even the traditional EW means, with which we have not saturated the front so far, are becoming ineffective. If this is launched into production, it will be a challenge for us," Berlinska said.

Recently, the Ukrainian military and volunteers have often stated that the Russians have begun to outnumber the Ukrainian armed forces on the front in the number of drones "many times over". And that this is becoming a very serious problem for the Ukrainian army. On the other hand, many Russian military blogs and military officials are increasingly reporting that in the field of FPV drones, Ukraine is now surpassing the Russians in almost all areas of the front.

The Russians also note the high quality of Ukrainian UAV crews. In addition, they note the Russian army's acute lack of EW means at the front, which aggravates the Russians' problems with the AFU drones. Russian military blogs write that FPV drones have become the "miracle weapon" that now allows the AFU, despite the acute shortage of shells and personnel, to hold the front, repel numerous Russian attacks, and inflict heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

In this regard, they call for a sharp acceleration of the delivery of FPV drones and EW systems to the troops. It should be noted that both Ukraine and Russia are now announcing plans to increase drone production and are constantly reporting successes in this direction. But the real picture will only be seen by the situation at the front - which army will receive more drones and in a shorter period of time.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748367856553586831

NutLoose

19th Jan 2024, 16:35

Ukraine has hit a drone store on the left bank of the Dnipro, in case you do not know, the person Identified as dying was one of Russia's top UAV operators.

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1748315390977925294

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1748315390977925294

Ukrainian defence forces liquidated one of the most effective Russian FPV drone operators with call sign Moisey

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748256128859816057

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748256128859816057

RedToo

20th Jan 2024, 12:02

Interview with some of the crew of one of the Bradley's that took on a T-90.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748480083990372669

NutLoose

20th Jan 2024, 12:19

As a result of the A-50 downing, the replacement is now flying it’s pattern over land across the other side of the Sea of Azov, thus limiting its inel gathering range.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748684707825328448

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748684707825328448

NutLoose

20th Jan 2024, 15:53

No matter which way you look at this, this guy is seriously f*raked up.

https://twitter.com/BohdanKrotevych/status/1748669883846406191

https://twitter.com/BohdanKrotevych/status/1748669883846406191

and another 9ne that deserves a slow and painful death.

https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1748087312657817926

https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1748087312657817926

NutLoose

20th Jan 2024, 22:39

I seriously hope this is untrue as it could damage Ukraines ability to hold the area.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1748687461725733254

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1748687461725733254

NutLoose

20th Jan 2024, 22:46

Apparently fake again, they must think the west is stupid, they used old footage.

https://twitter.com/NAFORaccoon/status/1748784741791260680

https://twitter.com/NAFORaccoon/status/1748784741791260680

NutLoose

20th Jan 2024, 23:58

More UAV attacks, believed to be where they produce Pantsir in Russia.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748853591446561041

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748853591446561041

MechEngr

21st Jan 2024, 00:15

Interview with some of the crew of one of the Bradley's that took on a T-90.
I worked on ITV and FISTV upgrades to M113s - same green, same head smacking cramped interior. Ryan MacBeth had suggested this was a surprise encounter which is why the TOW missile wasn't used. Had it been a planned attack, the Bradley could park long enough to keep a bead on the T-90 for the TOW to take it out. It also wasn't clear if the T-90 had been destroyed; the big flare was from setting off the smoke grenades and previous videos stopped there. I am glad to see the T-90 was removed from service, more so that a video game could help.

rattman

21st Jan 2024, 00:40

More UAV attacks, believed to be where they produce Pantsir in Russia.

LNG plant at lennigrad has been hit as well. 900km from Ukraine

Reports of strikes in Oryol, Smolensk and Tula

IlyaMuromets

21st Jan 2024, 08:07

How long until we see IL-2 Sturmoviks being wheeled out of museums to support the SK Ilya Mourametz being cobbled together as a technology demonstrator of Russian tech.
FDR, You might do me the honor of spelling my name correctly.

IM

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 08:48

It appears Russia has developed IR proof suits, that might make things awkward if they become wide spread.

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817

(https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817)..

Tartiflette Fan

21st Jan 2024, 09:11

I'm surprised more is not being said about Russian casualties, they look very heavy this Winter.

The A-50 that Ukraine shot down had 15 crew. No mention of their fate either.

Are Russians completely blind to this heavy attrition of their sons and fathers? It must be horrendous, and I don't know why Putin is allowed to keep the silence.

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/349902

". Apparently all crew members did not survive. There are reports of eleven or twelve fatalities."

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 09:26

LNG plant at lennigrad has been hit as well. 900km from Ukraine

Reports of strikes in Oryol, Smolensk and Tula

yup.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1748827693724966917

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1748827693724966917

Aircraft repair plant hit.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Smolensk&src=typed_query

https://twitter.com/search?q=Smolensk&src=typed_query

Pantsir plant hit.

[[url]https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1749005648023490563

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1749005648023490563

LNG plant burning

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1748884712364601812

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1748884712364601812

.

Tartiflette Fan

21st Jan 2024, 09:33

Unsure which thread to use, so trying here and apologies if it is deemed incorrect.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/19/send-migrant-boats-dover-to-ukraine-help-war-effort-charity/Send Channel migrant boats to Ukraine to help war effort, Government urgedMissionUkraine says poor quality boats still useful to troops because marine engineers in war zone are able to refurbish them

" Boats used by migrants to cross the Channel to the UK should be sent to Ukraine to help the war effort (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/russia-ukraine-war/), a volunteer organisation has told the Government.

Since October, British and Ukrainian volunteers have delivered 15 inflatable dinghies and rigid inflatable boats to soldiers fighting along the Dnipro River. (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/19/russian-forces-pushed-back-five-miles-ukraine-breakthrough/)

The small boats, which were in relatively poor condition, were driven from the UK to the south of Ukraine, where they were refurbished. This included the installation of new engines and painting the vessels khaki.

They have provided a lifeline to the Ukrainian soldiers holding three established bridgeheads on the occupied eastern side of the river, by carrying vital supplies and evacuating wounded soldiers."

This seems an excellent idea. I have contacted Mission Ukraine to ask if they have an efffective e-mail address to contact Border Force to urge them to review their decision and will add it to this post as soon as I receive a reply.

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 09:44

FUMR

21st Jan 2024, 10:25

It appears Russia has developed IR proof suits, that might make things awkward if the become wide spread.

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817

You just have to get them when they flash! :}

langleybaston

21st Jan 2024, 10:34

You just have to get them when they flash! :}

If these are kosher [IF] it seems probable that the external garment skin is held at ambient air temp.
Meanwhile, inside the suit, the soldier is moving, grunting, breaking wind, lifting, lining up a weapon, frightened ............ and his heat output has no escape.

Cooked Ivan, anybody?

Tartiflette Fan

21st Jan 2024, 12:32

If these are kosher [IF] it seems probable that the external garment skin is held at ambient air temp.
Meanwhile, inside the suit, the soldier is moving, grunting, breaking wind, lifting, lining up a weapon, frightened ............ and his heat output has no escape.

Cooked Ivan, anybody?

Anyone any idea how these are supposed to work ? It is extremely difficult in the normal world to prevent significant heat-loss when there is a major temperature gradient and the most efffective material ( Aerogel - ) is very expensive and certainly not thin enough to be made into usable clothing. What kind of temperature difference is needed to get a reasonable identification of a human body ?

jolihokistix

21st Jan 2024, 12:37

Magnetic strips for closing, memory bands to encourage the closed position? The feet still show up, so possibly battery-powered fans to blow heated air downwards(?).

PPRuNeUser0211

21st Jan 2024, 13:11

Anyone any idea how these are supposed to work ? It is extremely difficult in the normal world to prevent significant heat-loss when there is a major temperature gradient and the most efffective material ( Aerogel - ) is very expensive and certainly not thin enough to be made into usable clothing. What kind of temperature difference is needed to get a reasonable identification of a human body ?
Remember that you're not trying to block heat loss, you're just trying to prevent emission of IR radiation. Heat transfers by conduction, convection and radiation, most of it for a body in air by hotter air convecting away from the body but that is not what IR cameras are detecting.

meleagertoo

21st Jan 2024, 13:19

Heavens above! Ruzzia can't even supply its troops with boots, socks, sleeping bags, cold weather clothing or basic First Aid - even with weapons. What chance is there of providing them with sufficient amounts of high-tech IR proof suits to make any difference at all?

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 13:29

Sevastopol is now getting hit.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1749018902787486151

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1749018902787486151

Winemaker

21st Jan 2024, 13:32

It appears Russia has developed IR proof suits, that might make things awkward if they become wide spread.

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501
(https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817)..
Sort of looks like they are wrapping themselves in a mylar 'space' blanket, which will work for a short time, but the heat has to go somewhere eventually.

DogTailRed2

21st Jan 2024, 13:33

Sort of looks like they are wrapping themselves in a mylar 'space' blanket, which will work for a short time, but the heat has to go somewhere eventually.
Taliban worked this out. Seems to have taken the Russians a lot longer.

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 13:34

more Sevestapol woes.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1749014047142326633

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1749014047142326633

BlankBox

21st Jan 2024, 15:30

Persistance...

https://t.me/Ukraine_365News/70529

NutLoose

21st Jan 2024, 16:45

More on ir suits.

https://intermatdefense.com/phandom-of-war

https://intermatdefense.com/phandom-of-war

Beamr

21st Jan 2024, 19:04

It appears Russia has developed IR proof suits, that might make things awkward if they become wide spread.

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1748304340207501817

..
that's not IR proof demo, thats thermal imaging demo. You can do that by waving two sleeping mattresses in front of a person, those work very well if you want to hide your thermal foot print, even below freezing temperatures.

fdr

22nd Jan 2024, 01:49

FDR, You might do me the honor of spelling my name correctly.

IM

Humble apologies, auto correct sucks. "Ilya Muromets" brought to us by Igor Sikorsky...
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x394/screenshot_2024_01_22_at_1_47_50_pm_9db88840f89772ea78376b7a a9e22a83e26aea9d.png

fdr

22nd Jan 2024, 02:21

Putin is mobilising people from the regions outside Moscow to avoid upsetting the people who are in densely enough populated areas from causing him trouble. He has the Russians by every hair they have - the ones who can be fooled are fooled, those who can be scared are scared, those who can be bought are bought and everyone else is encouraged to feel apathy that they cannot change anything. The way for a country to get out of a problem like this is to not get into it.

Or someone with a vested interest doing the odds on:

a 6th floor window
a 9x25mm Makarov
polonium flavouring

These seem to have some prevalence with the dicktater of Fowlty Towers. Seems a shame to spoil the tune. Lord Farquard is starting to peer into the abyss, 400K #200s etc, the growing dive attractions in the Black Sea, the demonstrated prowess of Russian armaments capability, the strength of his economy, (eggs, lada's etc) and the lack of heat, water, electricity for a growing number of Russian "voters"... It appears that Count d'Money not only appreciates KJU's technical mastery and munitions quality, (3 out of 4 dud mortars still is 1 out of 4 bits that go bang) he appears to be well on the way to emulating NOK isolation, productivity, legal system, and generally their position in the global standard of living and ranking in places where one may wish to vacation or immigrate to.

fdr

22nd Jan 2024, 04:08

Sort of looks like they are wrapping themselves in a mylar 'space' blanket, which will work for a short time, but the heat has to go somewhere eventually.

The thermal image masking is a partial solution, it is not a total solution, it can be defeated quite simply... I would think anyone relying on such technology would be well advised to not do so for very long. In my former life chasing Soviet ballistic submarines some surprising paradoxes emerged, and they are applicable concepts to this form of masking.

fdr

22nd Jan 2024, 05:21

B Fraser

22nd Jan 2024, 08:02

The thermal image masking is a partial solution, it is not a total solution, it can be defeated quite simply... I would think anyone relying on such technology would be well advised to not do so for very long. In my former life chasing Soviet ballistic submarines some surprising paradoxes emerged, and they are applicable concepts to this form of masking.

Many fabrics and fabric cleaners glow in the UV range. It would be quite amusing if the Orcs could be found by that means. By hunting submarines, was it a case of looking for what wasn't there ? Just a hunch.

Tartiflette Fan

22nd Jan 2024, 08:24

Remember that you're not trying to block heat loss, you're just trying to prevent emission of IR radiation. Heat transfers by conduction, convection and radiation, most of it for a body in air by hotter air convecting away from the body but that is not what IR cameras are detecting.

As far as I understand and have been able to confirm, these are directly linked as far as humans are concerned, so to prevent IR emission, you have to prevent heat emission (and detection ).

B Fraser

22nd Jan 2024, 08:35

Former physicist hat on....

For IR "cloaking", the best strategy is to radiate at the same level as the background. If you radiate less then you will appear as a cold spot i.e. you can be detected. There was an interesting demonstration of hiding a tank on the top of a ridge by covering it in lightbulbs. The bulbs were illuminated to the same radiance as the background sky and hey presto, it became very difficult to see by eye from a distance.

Hat off again.

Mogwi

22nd Jan 2024, 09:53

Beamr

22nd Jan 2024, 09:55

As far as I understand and have been able to confirm, these are directly linked as far as humans are concerned, so to prevent IR emission, you have to prevent heat emission (and detection ).
Depends on what you are trying to hide, IR itself is a rather broad concept.
Thermal imaging is long wave IR, near infrared is short wave. Near infrared protection can be built into fabrics, but does not protect from long wave thermal imaging.
The video in question is undoubtedly long wave thermal imaging and they are just waving something that has the same temperature as the surrounding area in front of the person.
I've tested this in person with a camping mattress, you can hide yourself from thermal imaging with it in freezing temperatures, but you lit up like a torch in NIR imaging due to the mattresses material properties.
At the same time, wihtout the mattress, you are not very detectable in NIR imaging if wearing NIR compliant clothes and gear. However, if any of your gear/clothes is not NIR compliant, it gives you away.

fdr

22nd Jan 2024, 10:14

Many fabrics and fabric cleaners glow in the UV range. It would be quite amusing if the Orcs could be found by that means. By hunting submarines, was it a case of looking for what wasn't there ? Just a hunch.

Discrimination of a target is by detecting a signal from noise, and if the signal supression is substantial, then an artefact arises that is detectable, and that is actually observable in the images that are shown here. Now, edge detecting software is readily available, and has been for years, and so detecting any differential from the noise is possible, either as a positive or negative signal. Do a hi res screen shot of the video, and import into a $2 image processing software package, and do find edge.

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 11:34

Only in the Russian Army, I feel for the poor Sentry doing his job.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749355643683660181

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749355643683660181

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 11:36

Ukraine has been hitting substations in the occupied territories

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749346058608464187

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749346058608464187

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 11:40

Fascinating film of the attack on the LPG tanks at St Petersberg as it happened, and the desperate attempts by the Russians to remove the docked or docking tankers away from the blaze and attack.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749144176518672533

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749144176518672533

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 11:52

A drone helps a wounded Ukrainian soldier to safety. Get well soon...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748464584204185671

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748464584204185671

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 11:57

Film from the Russian side of an assault.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748392378258407772

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748392378258407772

Lonewolf_50

22nd Jan 2024, 12:07

Warning: Aviation Content
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/21/the-russian-navys-only-aircraft-carrier-is-stuck-in-overhaul-so-her-mig-29-fighters-have-gone-to-war-in-ukraine/?sh=2dee307a10ca
...Kuznetsov has been in overhaul since 2017. The 58,000-ton, 1980s-vintage flattop may never return to front-line service, effectively stranding her twin-engine, supersonic MiGs. The navy may have found another use for some of the 22 or so surviving MiG-29KRs out of 24 the fleet acquired starting in 2013: according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, it has deployed them to Crimea. From there, they reportedly hunt Ukrainian navy boats.... ...last fall, at least two MiG-29KRs belonging to the 100th Independent Shipborne Fighter Aviation Regiment were flying from Saky air base in Russian-occupied Crimea. The medium-weight MiGs reportedly have flown alongside Russian navy Sukhoi Su-30SM heavy fighters on patrols looking for Ukrainian navy boats plying the western Black Sea.

After scuttling the frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy, the Ukrainian navy no longer has any large armed warships. What it does have is a lot of missiles, airborne and seaborne drones and fast small boats.
Crewed boats transport Ukrainian commandos on raids into Russian-held territory. Robotic boats, packed with explosives, infiltrate ports to strike Russian warships.
Supersonic fighter versus small boat might seem like an unfair fight, but Ukrainian boat crews often pack shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles. In August, a Ukrainian crew scored a hit on a Russian Sukhoi fighter, apparently damaging it and forcing it to return to base.

While the Kremlin optimistically projects the carrier could return to the fleet this year, it’s possible the overhaul could extend into 2025... The last time Kuznetsov deployed, off the coast of Syria ... 2016... her air wing lost a MiG-29 and an Su-33 to faulty arresting gear. They ended up shore-basing the MiGs for the remainder of their operation.

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 12:27

The commander of the IL-22M that was hit, was killed and the wounded co-pilot managed to land it according to Russian sources.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1749020111787176003

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1749020111787176003

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 12:33

Possible Russian false flag exercise in Donetsk
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1749355455543927161

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1749355455543927161

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 12:36

Fancy driving through that!

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1749410731219451919

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1749410731219451919

[email protected]

22nd Jan 2024, 12:54

Back to IR - the radiation signature of a body is a combination of what it emits, what it reflects and what is transmitted through it - hence a material that masks emission may itself reflect differently to the background and still show up to a suitable sensor.

If memory serves, IR sensors are optimised for specific bands of IR, not a broad brush of all IR bands.

Lonewolf_50

22nd Jan 2024, 15:20

Sounds similar to Trial Houdini, where aircraft had variable light sources added around intakes and along leading edges to reduce visual detection ranges from ahead.
Mog I remember seeing a demo of something like that for the Tomcat (about 40 years ago)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the category of Ballistic Missile Attacks vs Ballistic Missile Defense (Russia/Ukraine version) (sub titie: Mr Kim gets to do an Op Eval in Ukraine).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-22/north-korean-missiles-face-reality-test-on-putin-s-battlefield?leadSource=uverify%20wall
(Bolding and indents are mine, and some of the text was snipped as noise)
(Bloomberg) -- Burning through his stockpiles as the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to Kim to provide short-range ballistic missiles and more than 1 million rounds of artillery. The North Korean missiles sent so far are similar in size and flight dynamics to Russia’s Iskander series, weapons experts have said.

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that the US Patriot air defense system has so far been largely effective in countering Russia’s missiles. In June, when Russia tried to take out a Patriot battery protecting Kyiv, the system shot down all of the 34 Iskander and Kinzhal missiles Russia fired, CSIS said. That’s a warning to Putin about the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles Kim is believed to be supplying. The systems are designed to be deployed quickly, maneuverable in flight and reliably hit targets with a degree of precision. That might not be enough.

“The Patriot missile defense system should be able to intercept North Korea’s short-range ballistic missiles, given its effectiveness against Russian Iskanders,” said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, a Washington-based think tank.

North Korea’s missiles are priced at about $5 million each, according to data compiled by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and released in 2022 by South Korean lawmaker Shin Won-sik, but the costs to Kim have likely dropped since then as he ramped up production. The use of the North Korean missiles appears to be quite new, and data is likely sparse on their performance. Any information Kim can glean about his weaponry’s performance in real-world combat could also help his regime refine future designs and attack strategies.

“Russia’s use of DPRK ballistic missiles in Ukraine also provides valuable technical and military insights to the DPRK,” the US State Department said in a joint statement this month that included about 50 countries, referring to North Korea by its formal name.
Wreckage thought to be from North Korean missiles was in the debris from strikes in Kharkiv in early January, when it wasn’t likely under Patriot protection. Dmytro Chubenko, a spokesperson for the Kharkiv prosecutor’s office, told reporters the missiles were different in key aspects from Russian models, and he believed they were from North Korea, the Associated Press reported.

The transfer of such missiles from North Korea, with ranges of about 400-800 kilometers (250-500 miles), increases the pool of weapons the Kremlin can draw upon to attack Ukraine as the war grinds on.

... Russia has used heavy barrages of missiles to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. In late December, Russia ramped up its bombardment campaign, firing hundreds of missiles at cities across Ukraine, killing dozens. The US determined Russia probably used North Korean missiles in that attack. The influx from North Korea will likely draw down the stocks of missiles for Patriot batteries and other air defense systems in Ukraine, in a strategy of attrition that could increase the changes for successful strikes.

As a result, NATO members pledged in January to ramp up production and procurement of 1,000 Patriot missiles to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, at a cost of $5.5 billion.
“Patriot is the only system that can deal with all types of Russian missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in October when Germany pledged to provide a Patriot battery to protect Ukraine. Now he’ll see if that includes the newer North Korean varieties as well.
Looks like Vlad wants to make it rain ballistic missiles ... :mad:

golfbananajam

22nd Jan 2024, 16:12

Only in the Russian Army, I feel for the poor Sentry doing his job.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749355643683660181

Lucky the guard didn't open fire.

Moral is if your a bully, and claim to be a Bn Cdr, you can get through any checkpoint. Some security,

ORAC

22nd Jan 2024, 16:22

DogTailRed2

22nd Jan 2024, 18:00

Lucky the guard didn't open fire.

Moral is if your a bully, and claim to be a Bn Cdr, you can get through any checkpoint. Some security,
Exactly. Expect the guard to say sod it and wave through the next bunch of Ukrainian special forces ready to throw Putin out of the nearest window.

Peter_K

22nd Jan 2024, 18:40

Fancy driving through that!
There is a longer version of this video on Ukrainian channles. This is Kiev.

meleagertoo

22nd Jan 2024, 19:28

Lucky the guard didn't open fire.

Moral is if your a bully, and claim to be a Bn Cdr, you can get through any checkpoint. Some security,
Much more to the point, it seems to me, is how this demonstrates the anarchic and utterly undisciplined state of the Ruzzian forces, a hopeful sign for the future. An 'army' that behaves so aggressively towards its own members is surely not an army with much future as a cohesive force where different units fight togerther and trust each other..

I hope.

meleagertoo

22nd Jan 2024, 19:32

BREAKING:

Poland joins the G7 Security Guarantees for Ukraine after a meeting between President Zelensky and PM Tusk in Kyiv today.

Poland also agreed to provide financial support for Ukrainian arms purchases and to launch joint weapons production.
.
…https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x693/image_eec8f69c80f7741815291e14fba6974c06254e97.png
Poland has a most honourable and long-standing history of standing up to tyrants and it is clear they aren't holding back on this tradition now.

I applaud Poland and their support and defence, once again, of Europe against dictatorship and brutality in character with their fine tradition.

ORAC

22nd Jan 2024, 21:50

https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1749443242473533821?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Meanwhile... Its only taken Russia around 40 hours 🤪 to put out the fire at its Novatek's Ust-Luga Baltic terminal - hit by 2 🇺🇦 drones early Sunday morning. So site has likely suffered major damage.

The facility refines stable gas condensate into oil, kerosene, diesel fraction & marine fuel components, & then finished products are exported by sea.

Even the equipment not affected by the fire is rendered useless by all the ice. None of those valves are going to operate until spring time.
.
…https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1087x612/image_776ec4d0bf49b14544b6c6773c11910698d823f4.png

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1137x612/image_285e04eb7a510fe788efd82e0ca6d5f04c72e459.png

ORAC

22nd Jan 2024, 22:00

Helo (Merlin) compatible ATACMS….

https://x.com/thinkdefence/status/1749218231972213020?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

But on a trailer, that fits inside a Merlin..
…
.https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1048x683/image_f9cd8c185a45557a01d93121614139ed30300008.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x813/image_6fcd9f67fcf82e4151be3c002bb2d2d9673f4ab8.png

Winemaker

22nd Jan 2024, 22:11

Helo (Merlin) compatible ATACMS….

But on a trailer, that fits inside a Merlin..
…

I think the truck is only delivering replacement rocket pods, not launching them.

Lonewolf_50

22nd Jan 2024, 22:13

My memory may be off, but aren't those six packs MLRS?
From what I recall (happy to be corrected) ATACMS would be a two pack in roughly the same package.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x400/440px_mars_28mlrs_29_bundeswehr_56974352707d7a9ca01d1a8061db 6fea3198c026.jpg
MLRS

ORAC

22nd Jan 2024, 22:28

https://x.com/samramani2/status/1749442726569898080?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian Telegram channels are circulating reports of direct clashes between Chechen Kadyrovtsy militias and Russian regular forces in Melitopol

Calls for Russians to shoot down renegade Chechens are also swirling in ultranationalist spaces…

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 22:38

Utter respect.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749399920954491318

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749399920954491318

NutLoose

22nd Jan 2024, 22:55

That’s taking it to a whole new level.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749067872272269369

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749067872272269369

Winemaker

23rd Jan 2024, 00:45

That’s taking it to a whole new level.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749067872272269369
Looks pretty cool, but recoil will make it pretty much impossible to stay on target. That's quite a large torque arm.......

Tartiflette Fan

23rd Jan 2024, 08:02

Film from the Russian side of an assault.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748392378258407772

First time I have ever heard a recording from inside an IFV ( Russsian in this case ) pretty awful - must really reduce combat efficiency mbeing battered like that. Are allied ones anywhere near as bad ?

ORAC

23rd Jan 2024, 08:11

https://x.com/glandsbergis/status/1749084821416997057?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

We need to change our strategy from “as long as it takes” to “whatever victory takes”. So what would victory take? Let’s compare Poland’s recent procurements to the amount of equipment the world has given Ukraine:
.
.https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1516/image_0c4e2981699222c59b9bd993267c8d432cf8d028.png
.
Poland is a similar size to Ukraine and has a similar population. Poland thinks more than 1000 tanks and hundreds of HIMARS are necessary to defend Poland. So why do we ask Ukrainians to liberate territory with less than a tenth of that?

Remember that Poland is a NATO member and can count on backup from the armies of other NATO members. Ukraine cannot. “Whatever victory takes” is much, much more than we have given.

If we support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, but we don’t give them the equipment that they need, "it’s" going to take a long time. Instead, let’s get serious about our collective security and give Ukraine whatever victory takes, now.…

ORAC

23rd Jan 2024, 08:13

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1749398178925801799?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

WSJ: The EU plan to create new Ukraine aid fund to bypass Hungary's veto

The European External Action Service has developed a new way of providing military support to Kiev worth more than €20 billion. This mechanism will allow Hungary to bypass the veto by Hungary imposed on the aid package through the European Peace Facility, The Wall Street Journal writes, citing the draft plan.

According to the project, it is planned to redirect part of the remaining assets of the European Peace Fund to the new fund and further replenish it by five billion euros annually from 2024 to 2027.

The funds from the new fund, as the publication writes, will be used to compensate for the costs of EU countries on joint purchases of weapons and military training programs for the Ukrainian military. This year, according to the plan, the European Union may allocate €7.5 billion for such compensation.

ORAC

23rd Jan 2024, 08:26

Forgetting the value of the POL targets hit in the port area - Russia has been forced to pull S-300 units from the front line to defend the city - and probably others.

Also having to expend multiple S-300 missiles to take out cheap drones.

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1749695882034065430?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russia is setting up S-300 missile air defense systems around Saint Petersburg.

golfbananajam

23rd Jan 2024, 08:36

First time I have ever heard a recording from inside an IFV ( Russsian in this case ) pretty awful - must really reduce combat efficiency mbeing battered like that. Are allied ones anywhere near as bad ?

From my very limited experience of being inside an AFV432, the short answer is yes. They're noisy (and smelly), you have to shout to be heard, and the bench seats are not exactly comfortable, but they're not really meant to be limousines. Every spare space has something wedged into it, with personal equipment, ammo, food, water, spare fuel, tools, radios, spares etc for 8 people, you can imagine there is no spare space.

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 09:30

I think the truck is only delivering replacement rocket pods, not launching them.

Hmmm, if that is the case then why the need for a blast shield over the windscreen?

It's mounted on a supacat, the same vehicle they have sent to Ukraine with the Ground to Air missile system on the back.

Timmy Tomkins

23rd Jan 2024, 10:05

We need to change our strategy from “as long as it takes” to “whatever victory takes”. So what would victory take? Let’s compare Poland’s recent procurements to the amount of equipment the world has given Ukraine:
.
.https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1516/image_0c4e2981699222c59b9bd993267c8d432cf8d028.png
.
Poland is a similar size to Ukraine and has a similar population. Poland thinks more than 1000 tanks and hundreds of HIMARS are necessary to defend Poland. So why do we ask Ukrainians to liberate territory with less than a tenth of that?

Remember that Poland is a NATO member and can count on backup from the armies of other NATO members. Ukraine cannot. “Whatever victory takes” is much, much more than we have given.

If we support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, but we don’t give them the equipment that they need, "it’s" going to take a long time. Instead, let’s get serious about our collective security and give Ukraine whatever victory takes, now.…
Just think what could have been achieved if the wetern powers had delivered when the initial Ruzzo assault went pear shaped and they were in dissaray. Much of this might have been stopped right there.

Spunky Monkey

23rd Jan 2024, 10:44

While I agree with you Tommy, the time to have given the kit was between 2014 and 2020 when the UK was training the Ukrainians, giving them kit and money.
While being thwarted by the EU and the US and anyone else who was scared of upsetting the Russians or palling up to the dirty money.
I for one am proud as punch at what the UK has done and pleased to be living rent free in the Russians headspace.
Public enemy number one is boss!

Giving the Ukrainians shed loads of kit straight after the first assault would not have worked. They weren't trained on it and being able to drive it, is not the same as being able to fight it. Let alone the logistics challenges of our equipment.
However much of Eastern Europe gave the Ukrainians all the inventory of equipment that they were trained on, mainly ex-soviet equipment. That has been well maintained and upgraded, unlike the T62s of the Russian arsenal.

Countries did eventually step up with training facilities after the UK started doing it, training troops on everything from basic individual tactics to F16s.

Moving forward, the Ukrainians are holding the line and now is the time to be emptying the American deserts of A1s and more importantly Bradleys, F16s, MLRS, Humvees (M-ATVs) while supplying new long range Taurus etc.
While in the UK every impounded quad bike, 4x4 and van should be fitted with winter tyres and given as a gift from the UK Police to the Ukrainian MoD.

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:11

I read the link about how Poland is increasing their military and looked to see how the UK was fairing in that respect. I came across this and initially thought it was the Royal Navy future planning. :p

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1199x706/geoceppwkaej0bs_9a2efe9214de671e7a7f1eb956e95710e060cbf3.jpg

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:14

Unpacking a shark..

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749017935543148622

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1749017935543148622

Thrust Augmentation

23rd Jan 2024, 11:17

I think the truck is only delivering replacement rocket pods, not launching them.

The vehicle pictured is the LIMAWS(R), a project that intended to get a lightweight C-130 transportable launcher that would replace some of the UK's M270's - didn't happen back then.

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:19

Russia is to cut subsidies to the occupied regions.

https://twitter.com/oedipovich/status/1749693235214143913

https://twitter.com/oedipovich/status/1749693235214143913

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:22

S300 are being deployed around St Petersburg, tying up more assets. Though i didn't think they were effective against drones, so are they a PR exercise to reassure the populace?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749705431381852553

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1749705431381852553

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:25

Nooooo

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1749519849074639180

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1749519849074639180

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1747726495047442869

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1747726495047442869

Says it all

https://twitter.com/ampalsson/status/1749708293118058786

https://twitter.com/ampalsson/status/1749708293118058786

.. (https://twitter.com/ampalsson/status/1749708293118058786)

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:45

The World and every sodding Republican needs to see this, that is her blood on YOUR hands..

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749712992692830464

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749712992692830464

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:54

Destroyed French self-propelled gun CAESAR

https://twitter.com/Karatek975527/status/1749646099793518668

https://twitter.com/Karatek975527/status/1749646099793518668

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 11:58

Hmmmm

Translation:
Maximum repost!!! The military says that Ukrainians manage to put explosives even in chocolate. They also advise not to pick up unattended items in border areas, as explosives or poison could be planted there too.

https://twitter.com/svab_p/status/1749459215813333481

https://twitter.com/svab_p/status/1749459215813333481

B Fraser

23rd Jan 2024, 12:50

WSJ: The EU plan to create new Ukraine aid fund to bypass Hungary's veto

The European External Action Service has developed a new way of providing military support to Kiev worth more than €20 billion. This mechanism will allow Hungary to bypass the veto by Hungary imposed on the aid package through the European Peace Facility, The Wall Street Journal writes, citing the draft plan.

Alternatively, the member countries can simply "go direct". Germany did this, much to the annoyance of Brussels who were unable to claim the credit but hey folks, there's a war on.

Ninthace

23rd Jan 2024, 13:16

Alternatively, the member countries can simply "go direct". Germany did this, much to the annoyance of Brussels who were unable to claim the credit but hey folks, there's a war on.
How Sovereign of them!

Tartiflette Fan

23rd Jan 2024, 13:52

Just think what could have been achieved if the wetern powers had delivered when the initial Ruzzo assault went pear shaped and they were in dissaray. Much of this might have been stopped right there.

Pie-in-the-sky hopes. How long did it take to set up the logistical trail, train maintainers and repairers ? Six + months I think. Spunky Monkey had the right suggestion, but ignorance ( certainly went for me ) and lack of interest was widespread..

FUMR

23rd Jan 2024, 15:06

Re Nutty's post #7926:

Hmm, seems a little odd to me. Surely, if it is true that you are facing weapon and ammo shortages, the last thing you do is make it public for your enemy to act upon!

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 15:49

If Ukraine falls, I wonder how many Republican's will be happily waving off their Children to defend Europe as part of NATO.. I bet none, from heal spurs down..

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749826713247244599

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749826713247244599

B Fraser

23rd Jan 2024, 15:56

How Sovereign of them!

And much to the annoyance of the EU. Well done Germany.

Germany to unilaterally provide Ukraine with over 7 billion euro, draws criticism (kyivindependent.com) (https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-security-assistance-worth-over-7-billion-euro-draws-criticism/)

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 15:57

Still no signs of Geronimo and his oiks are fulfilling his duties

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1749776339412873486

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1749776339412873486

skadi

23rd Jan 2024, 19:32

And much to the annoyance of the EU. Well done Germany.

Additional to the three british Sea Kings Germany will deliver 6 Sea King Mk41 to Ukraine in summer

https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1749886898879742049?t=ObdMRG0UeULVgUYzpnZTzg&s=19

skadi

Lonewolf_50

23rd Jan 2024, 20:51

The World and every sodding Republican needs to see this, that is her blood on YOUR hands.. No, Nutty, the blood is still on Vlad's hands. He's the one who started this war.

@B Fraser: thanks for that. (Nice job Germany)
Bilateral support, security arrangements, or military exercises are surely not prohibited by simply being a member of the EU, are they?
I seem to recall that the UK were training with Ukrainian forces back in the 00's and teens, both before and after Brexit? (If I recall incorrectly, by all means correct me).

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 21:51

Yes we were and still are training them.

i disagree, the blood is on both Putins and the Republicans that are stopping aid to Ukraine and preventing them defending from the likes of this both have blood on their hands. Sadly the USA has lost the respect of many countries over this, something they might struggle to regain.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1749041081134542915

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1749041081134542915

havoc

23rd Jan 2024, 22:53

Ukrainians Down Russian Cruise Missile With M2 Browning Machine Gun: Video | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainians-down-russian-cruise-missile-with-m2-browning-machine-gun-video/vi-BB1h7Bt0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=d264ea1c380942f097f1543680075741&ei=35)

NutLoose

23rd Jan 2024, 23:55

Some are questioning Russia’s right to be members of the UN.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749838354844131672

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749838354844131672

Lonewolf_50

24th Jan 2024, 01:00

Good luck following that line, Mr Greashchenko.
If you want to make the UN even more useless and less trustworthy, keep playing games like that.
It will backfire.

fdr

24th Jan 2024, 01:25

Good luck following that line, Mr Greashchenko.
If you want to make the UN even more useless and less trustworthy, keep playing games like that.
It will backfire.

They are not wrong in their statement, the RF was never correctly handled within the UN as to its membership, and at the time there were other issues that were pressing. They have never formally been voted on as the suceeding party of the USSR. My concerns remain that the position of the RF on the UNSC is more tenuous, and there is no right of veto for a UNSC PM nation that is involved in the hostilities that a vote is related to. That is the rule, and all of the members of the UN tip toe around that matter, and it is a breach of the charter for any vote in the UNSC to be vetoed by a belligerent member. It is abused due to convenience, and Ukrainians die due to that yellow streak that runs through the members of the UNSC. No UNSC member PM or otherwise has a right to bend the charter to their convenience, they are complicit with the genocide that is policy of Vlad the impaler.

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 02:04

Russia is changing the terms of service for Prisoners enlisted in the army and they are to put it bluntly likely to curb recruitment.

One comment I heard from a Russian Volunteer was his service in Ukraine was for the period of his contract if not longer, while a prisoner at least got to go home in 6 months.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1749903621825954181

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1749903621825954181

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 02:10

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 02:29

From Anton’s threads.

[[color=#0f1419]

The way Ukrainians live around missile attacks. I decided to translate it for you. by Tatusia Bo

"My first fear after the start of the full-scale invasion is quite trivial. Like, in fact, everyone's. I fear a missile would strike while I am taking a shower. And I could see these pictures in my head — they would clear the rubble and take out my plumpy, naked, and wet body. So, I learned to wash within 3 minutes between alerts. I would jump out of the shower and be like, "Whew, not this time".

My second fear is the missile-and-the-toilet thing. I have had it since a missile attack on the neighborhood in the early morning. In fact, I was woken up by a loud bang. For I had solemnly slept through the air raid alert. The explosion, I open my eyes, and I'm already standing in the common corridor with my baby in my arms. Then there was a series of bangs, everything was shaking. And suddenly a pause... And I needed to use the toilet so badly that I was crying. I thought "Well, whatever. I'll go for it". I went to the toilet, and as soon as I sat on it, there was a looooud bang. I was tossed up in the air along with the toilet. After that, I fear a missile attack while being in the toilet. Handsome and strong firefighters would clear it all up and find me riding a white... horse. And journalists would write: "A Woman with No Panties Found on the Toilet". And all of Kyiv would zoom in on the picture, looking at the scars and birthmarks, trying to figure out who had pissed away, well, I mean, missed the alarm.

As for panties... We were brought up mostly in post-Soviet times. Teenagers of our generation were not interested in looking under skirts. Because everyone's underpants were the same. Serhii's mom's, Olya's, and Serhii's classmate's - all the same. They were so ugly. Mothers of that time always kept new underpants in the closet for holidays and when they went to see a doctor. No matter what happened to a person, the first thing to take care of was underwear.

And then the war... Once I felt a little better, the first thing I did was buying a pair of nice new panties. 'Cause, you know, what if all that happened — a missile, rubble, firefighters, the media... And maybe they would eventually write "A Woman's Body Found Under Rubble in Lovely Panties". They would write that, won't they? One of my friends, Lena, upon returning home after de-occupation, was most offended by the Russians because they neglected even household appliances in the house, but beige, seamless, very comfortable and therefore well-worn underpants were stolen by the bastards.

My mother also had her own fear. What if a missile hit her house, everything was smashed, chickens running around, ducks were not fed, and the vegetable garden was overgrown with weeds? That's what she would tell me: "I am weeding the vegetable garden, my dear, in case a missile hits, so I have no weeds all over my potatoes."

On December 31, the Russians "greeted" us all day long with "congratulations" either by Shaheds or missiles. Neighbors from the upper floors gathered near my door in the common hallway. They would gather and grumble that the damned Russians were not letting them finish preparing the holiday meal. Someone brought out sparkling wine, and I brought out glasses: "Well, cheers to air defense." "If they shell our house and I burn down the duck I've been cooking for three days, I won't take responsibility for my actions," said a neighbor from the 9th floor. And for some reason, I believe her.

On the morning of January 2, the Russians launched their most massive missile attack on Ukraine. When tons of explosives were flying over Kyiv, my friend Katia politely went to the subway, where we hide from missiles. And so people were shuddering from the explosions in the subway, and Katia would text us in a common chat: "Oh, f@ck, there was such an explosion I almost dropped my croissant." We would write back, dumbfounded: "Katia, what croissant? Where are you?" And Katya replied with such calmness: "I went out for coffee, what's wrong? I am a Ukrainian woman. I want coffee and a croissant, and no f@cking Russian Kalibr (missile - ed.) is going to stop me". Let's skip the fact that, despite the explosions all over the city, there was an open croissant shop, which is a topic for another conversation.

But Katia, it turns out, is afraid of dying from a missile without drinking coffee and having a crispy croissant. We are afraid. Oh, how scared we are. Personally, during the loudest explosion, I was pressing myself to the floor thinking, "F@ck, am I going to die in the old robe?" and anyway I donated money for drones. We are scared, scared when missiles are flying at another city, scared when the news reports on an air attack on the defense line near the city of M. We seem to be afraid every second of our lives.

Author: Tatusia Bo

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 02:52

Kyiv

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1749672866004554221

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1749672866004554221

https://twitter.com/Xenta777/status/1749847091000623229

https://twitter.com/Xenta777/status/1749847091000623229

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 03:14

Belarusian Officer found in Ukraine serving in Russian Army…. He didn’t survive.

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1749995966785077479

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1749995966785077479

fdr

24th Jan 2024, 05:19

With the fires in St Petersburg and all that ice forming on the LNG storage site that was destroyed by drones, this is probably unsurprising…

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1749715102431916180

Hey, it's a blessing, he knew at the first outbreak of fire he wasn't going to have to worry about dying from cancer or a stroke. Would have been smart to go and update his accidental death insurance, get a great cover and know that the instalments aren't going to cost for too long.

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 06:32

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-cat-army-social-media/

Ukrainian War Cats

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 06:44

https://x.com/nutella__tr/status/1749851452015542440?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, reports that a new trench radio electronic warfare system has been developed for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which can be a backpack and jam the FPV of kamikaze drones. It creates white noise that makes Russian drones uncontrollable.

The radius of action is 250 meters. It is already in serial production.
.
…https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1621/image_ca3231fcb057eca597d98c35f09f51c60deefdba.png

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 08:20

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1750081419555086832?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian transport plane Il-76 crashes in Belgorod Oblast.

https://x.com/lxsummer1/status/1750084902710575130?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Il-76 military plane crashed in Belgorod region according to russian media. The moment of the plane crash in the BNR was caught on camera. According to russian media, there were 63 people on board

Gargleblaster

24th Jan 2024, 08:28

Bilateral support, security arrangements, or military exercises are surely not prohibited by simply being a member of the EU, are they?
I seem to recall that the UK were training with Ukrainian forces back in the 00's and teens, both before and after Brexit? (If I recall incorrectly, by all means correct me).

Of course not prohibited. Denmark and The Netherlands are donating their F16, and training personnel. Likewise is any country free to donate whatever it likes, including money. The EU is mostly a trading union. PS: Some posters here have a lot of misconceptions about the EU, one shouldn't believe everything being posted.

Beamr

24th Jan 2024, 08:38

Russian il-76 transport crashed in Belgorod oblast

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750081419555086832

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750081419555086832

Tartiflette Fan

24th Jan 2024, 08:57

In #7863 I mentioned the Boats for Ukraine appeal and have received their reply - and a template letter - which I have copied below.

Thank you very much for reaching out and for your support.

We haven't found an email which would be more responsive yet. I would suggest sending an email to their general address for now ([email protected]) but if we find a better alternative, we will let you know. We also understand that contacting Home Office / Border Force might be most efficient through your local MP, and we would be happy to help with that by providing you with a template letter.

https://www.boatsforukraine.com (https://www.boatsforukraine.com/)

Template Letter

Dear [MP Name]

As your constituent and someone deeply affected by the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, I'm writing to urge you to support the transfer of migrant boats from Dover to assist with vital medical evacuations across the Dnipro River.

As recently highlighted in the Telegraph (link 1: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/19/send-migrant-boats-dover-to-ukraine-help-war-effort-charity; (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/19/send-migrant-boats-dover-to-ukraine-help-war-effort-charity) link 2 (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/19/send-migrant-boats-dover-to-ukraine-help-war-effort-charity): (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/19/send-migrant-boats-dover-to-ukraine-help-war-effort-charity)https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2024/01/19/channel-small-boats-ukraine-kyiv-russian-invasion),

the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a critical need for vessels to ferry wounded soldiers across the war-torn river. While concerns about seaworthiness are understandable, the Ukrainians themselves are ready and willing to refurbish and repurpose these boats for their specific needs, leveraging their expertise and determination.

Donating these boats wouldn't just offer a lifeline to Ukrainian soldiers battling for their freedom; it would also represent a cost-effective solution for the UK. Avoiding the expense of storage and eventual disposal frees up taxpayer funds for other crucial areas, while delivering a demonstrably positive impact on the international scene.

Therefore, I strongly urge you to:

Contact the Home Office and Ministry of Defence directly to advocate for swift action on this issue. Pressing officials to prioritise this life-saving initiative can make a real difference.

Raise this matter in Parliament to bring public attention to the potential of these boats and encourage broader support for Ukrainian medical evacuation efforts.

Sign the attached letter. (https://www.boatsforukraine.com/letter-from-mps)

Every day these boats sit idle is another day Ukrainian lives hang in the balance. Your actions can play a crucial role in turning this potential into a reality, offering practical aid and showcasing the UK's commitment to humanitarian support.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,

MPN11

24th Jan 2024, 08:59

Il-76 ... reportedly 65 UKR POW on board ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

Tartiflette Fan

24th Jan 2024, 09:01

With the fires in St Petersburg and all that ice forming on the LNG storage site that was destroyed by drones, this is probably unsurprising…

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1749715102431916180

I can imagine that this is because the windows are dangerous to operate in winter, so they are utilising freely available natural opportunities.instead.

Il-76 ... reportedly 65 UKR POW on board ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

This has the air of the usual hideously clumsy Russian propaganda. Trying to disguise the loss of their plane by inventing Ukrainian POW's as passengers. The obvious question is why would the Ukrainians shoot it down, followed by the secondary one of who believes the Russians are going to fly POW's anywhere ? They would be on buses or trains even if it took 12 days.

Tartiflette Fan

24th Jan 2024, 09:07

Of course not prohibited. Denmark and The Netherlands are donating their F16, and training personnel. Likewise is any country free to donate whatever it likes, including money. The EU is mostly a trading union. PS: Some posters here have a lot of misconceptions about the EU, one shouldn't believe everything being posted.

I think you are overlooking the well-known fact that the Brussels bureaucracy is always looking for areas into which they can extend their influence, and will therefore use whatever means at their disposal to hinder/block initiatives from member states which risk over-shadowing their self-serving efforts/PR initiatives, which naturally attract increased budgets/influence.

B Fraser

24th Jan 2024, 10:09

In times of crisis, the last thing that Ukraine needs is for countries able to help having to wade through EU treacle, which has the sole purpose that the EU can bask in the reflected glory of individual states. It is not only self-serving but costs the lives of Ukrainians.

EU’s Breton accuses Germany of going ‘solo’ on Ukraine aid – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-thierry-breton-germany-ukraine-war-aid/)

In other news, the excellent book "The Showman" by Simon Shuster on President Zelensky has dropped onto the mat. A quick skim indicates that this will be a fascinating read and a deep insight into arguably, the most significant individual of the 21st century.

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 10:50

That clip of the IL-76 going in does not tell the whole story, watch this clip at about 20 secs. missile strike? on board explosion?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750097262829568288

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750097262829568288

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/555x1200/gemgvc4w0aasggx_f00b770171f01c7cade5931f698e6f9547617c02.jpg

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 11:03

Ukraine confirms shooting the IL-76 down :ok:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1750095213174153292

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1750095213174153292

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 11:04

Not a lot left.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1750096199242362933

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1750096199242362933

more from the same source.

UPDATE: Russia's Ministry of Defense and FSB have taken control of the IL-76 transport plane crash site in Belgorod and blocked access to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which would be typically involved in such investigations.

Report that Ukraine shot down the plane, originally from @pravda_eng (https://twitter.com/pravda_eng)'s Ukrainian military sources, have been retracted for the time being, opening a distinct possibility it was the work of Russia's own air defense.

The mammoth IL-76 military transport plane was shot down AFTER takeoff just 30 miles from the Ukrainian border. The Russians' claim that Ukrainian POWs were on board the plane for the exchange that was to take place at the border in the same region is absurd.

The plane's flight history also does not align with Russia's claim that it was transporting Ukrainian POWs toward an exchange point. The plane last arrived in Belgorod from Iran, and was shot down after take off from Belgorod heading northeast.

There has to be a reason the Russians are completely freaking out about this plane getting shot down, and it certainly isn't because of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Something (or someone) very important for Russia was on that plane, which had recently arrived from Iran.

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 11:36

You just cannot beat the resilience of the Ukrainian people.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750112467382931578

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750112467382931578

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 12:01

Wow...

You are looking at a hero Ukrainian Lt. Colonel Oleh Babiy specialized in operations far behind enemy lines. In August 2023, his team walked 600 km into Russia and destroyed or damaged 3 Tu-22M bombers at Soltsy He fell in battle just as he was about to cross back into Ukraine

The Ukrainian intelligence service HUR has just declassified his name and information about to the covert operation at Soltsy airfield in the Novgorod region last year.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1750076042297876530

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1750076042297876530

DogTailRed2

24th Jan 2024, 12:06

The Russian transport downed. BBC reporting it carried Ukrainian POW's?
Russian plane crash: Ministry says 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war on plane that crashed - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68079336)

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 12:59

wondering

24th Jan 2024, 12:59

How convenient for RU. Claiming 65 POWs on board means 65 POWs will never be exchanged and will just perish somewhere.

Ninthace

24th Jan 2024, 13:08

Read some of the links above, it was departing Belogrod not arriving, as Belogrod is the closest to the border, why would you fly prisoners away from an exchange. Also Russia apparently do not ship POW's by air. It was initially reported as carrying prisoners but rapidly disproved, the BBC does not appear to have caught up.
The BBC website suggests prisoners are moved by air,
Russia claims there were Ukrainian POWs on board the Il-76 aircraft, part of a planned prisoner exchange.

We can’t confirm that. A spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) told Radio Liberty in Ukraine that a swap was being planned for today "but is not taking place at the moment".

The last prisoner swap happened earlier this month, when 230 Ukrainian POWs were brought home and a similar number of Russians were also returned. The previous exchange reported before that was last summer.

We do know that Russia uses military planes to move Ukrainian prisoners of war around the country.

A former POW spoken to by the BBC in 2022 talked about being flown from a military airfield in Taganrog, southern Russia, closer to the spot where the exchange took place. Other released POWs have said similar things to Ukrainian media – much more recently.

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 13:16

How convenient for RU. Claiming 65 POWs on board means 65 POWs will never be exchanged and will just perish somewhere.
Sky just interviewed an expert who noted that the Russians have published a list of the POWs who reputedly were on the aircraft.

He added that, having had an initial look at the list, the names are of POWs who have already been returned to Ukraine during a previous exchange…

(Looks like someone copied a list of POWs they had at hand and didn’t check the date)

https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1750147667324465388?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1750154737465311309?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

DaveReidUK

24th Jan 2024, 13:20

BBC reporting it carried Ukrainian POW's?

No, BBC reporting that Russia has said it carried Ukrainian POWs.

Spot the difference.

B Fraser

24th Jan 2024, 13:29

Photos of the wreckage do not appear to support their claim.

Quelle surprise !

Ninthace

24th Jan 2024, 13:39

Photos of the wreckage do not appear to support their claim.

Quelle surprise !
There are accredited pictures available or it it just X?
X also suggests the crash site is closed to public access

FUMR

24th Jan 2024, 14:46

Lots of misinformation going around. No one can even agree if it was inbound or outbound Belgorod.

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 14:53

https://x.com/peacemaket71/status/1750154342366060826?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

A small panorama of the IL-76 wreckage

https://x.com/radarfennec/status/1750179209425670339?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Said to be wreckage of the IL-76, that shows clear indication of missile fragmentation on the hull panels.

Tartiflette Fan

24th Jan 2024, 15:35

No, BBC reporting that Russia has said it carried Ukrainian POWs.

Spot the difference.

Why though, since the facts are disputed ( which they confirm in a sub-paragraph of the report ) did they publish the Russian claim instead of simply saying IL 76 shot-down/crahes near Belgorod ?

NutLoose

24th Jan 2024, 16:04

Because they are a bunch of imbeciles.

Low average

24th Jan 2024, 19:27

I know it's early days. My conjecture...

It's unlikely Ukraine would murder 65 of their own.
It's very likely Russia would murder 65 Ukranians.

However, I think it's unlikely Russia would sacrifice one of their precious aircraft to do so.

Ukranian incompetence is a possibility, but Russian incompetence and dysfunction is well recognised, so I would theorise that the Ukranians were not told that the enemy aircraft had been recklessly filled with their own and flown into range of their SAMs

What I do find interesting is that the Ukranians SAMs extend a good way into Russia.

DogTailRed2

24th Jan 2024, 20:24

Russia deliberately risked lives in downed plane - Kyiv - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68083739)

Tartiflette Fan

24th Jan 2024, 21:18

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 22:00

Multiple videos…https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1750274050830549430?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Major incident in Russian town of Tuapse on the eastern shore of the Black Sea.

It is believed that the Rosneft plant, one of the oldest in Russia which processes oil from several oil fields, caught fire after an unidentified flying object struck one of the oil tanks.

FUMR

24th Jan 2024, 22:06

Patriot has range of 160 km and Yablonovo is only 100 km from border. Last report I read said that aircraft had taken off from Belgorod, which would render presence of Ukrainians aboard completely nonsensical.

Many other sources say it was inbound Belgorod. So, we just don't know.

ORAC

24th Jan 2024, 22:19

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1750219746061021524?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Britain wants to buy Taurus from Germany to transfer more Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, Handelsblatt

According to the publication, the proposal has been under consideration for several weeks.https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1319/image_129c8c030c9dde1fc48760dd07e7cdbdf001be51.png

fdr

25th Jan 2024, 00:58

Russia has committed murder previously of Ukrainian POWs, frequently, a war crime. Using POWs as a "human shield" a war crime. Russia arranged a fake blue-on-blue of Ukrainian POWs in a building, purportedly killed by Ukrainian long range fire, which did not stand up to even cursory inspection. Russia lies, they lied yesterday they lie today they will lie again tomorrow. They probably can get some employment in o\ther country politics, again.

Were Ukrainian POWs on board? not likely for good reasons given in this forum. Will dead Ukrainian POWs turn up in the morgue purported to be from the shoot down? It will be a miracle if they don't, Russia cares nothing for international law, their reputation, or the lives of anyone not known as V.V. Putin. Russia is a murderous state, not because they need to be, because they have learnt to be over 1100 years of brutality.

B Fraser

25th Jan 2024, 07:20

Russia is a murderous state, not because they need to be, because they have learnt to be over 1100 years of brutality.

Nothing drives that home quite like visiting the memorial to civilians, murdered in the most brutal and sadistic manner, where one victim is closely related to your spouse. His crime was being a schoolteacher when the Russians invaded. That memorial is beside the well where the tortured dead and the barely living, were thrown. They were then machine gunned.

Multiply that one murder by millions and you may begin to understand the nature of what Ukraine is dealing with. The tragedy is that Russia has also produced some of the finest literature, music and art, along with some exceptional "society" people. They have no part in this.

The recurring lesson is that even structured and civilised countries (Germany, Austria, Japan etc.) can revert to savagery in a frighteningly short period of time. Your average Orc has had a thousand years of it.

Ninthace

25th Jan 2024, 07:29

Any nation is capable of immense brutality and cruelty, it is part of the human condition.

ORAC

25th Jan 2024, 08:04

Video.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1750421715946013076?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian Telegram channels report that an airboat production workshop is on fire in Krasnoyarsk region. The area of the fire is over 1,700 square meters.

The cost of airboats made here reaches 4.4 million rubles (about $50,000).

ORAC

25th Jan 2024, 08:21

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1750425106772361671?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

"Partners are ready to provide Ukraine with F-16. The question is whether everything is ready for them to work in Ukraine," Air Force Spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.

According to him everything should be ready from pilots, infrastructure to engineers.

"Currently, the preparation is not completed, therefore the partners do not hand over the aircraft, which will simply be on the territory of Ukraine, not performing combat missions."

Ninthace

25th Jan 2024, 09:06

"Partners are ready to provide Ukraine with F-16. The question is whether everything is ready for them to work in Ukraine," Air Force Spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.

According to him everything should be ready from pilots, infrastructure to engineers.

"Currently, the preparation is not completed, therefore the partners do not hand over the aircraft, which will simply be on the territory of Ukraine, not performing combat missions."
Better that than providing target practice for no return.

ORAC

25th Jan 2024, 09:14

https://x.com/tendar/status/1750411859880993098?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

The strike against Russian oil facilities in Tuapse, Russia, only days after the successful strike against the Ust-Luga terminal removes all doubt that we are dealing with a targeted effort to eliminate all major Russian oil and gas ports, so that they are rendered useless for any operations.

When looking at the Russian oil and gas pipeline map, then you will notice that almost all of them head West. There is a small pipeline going east, but it is not connected to the main oil fields in Western Siberia and only small in size. Russia's economic lifeline goes all the way West. In the past, this was the matter of problems for the West, since Russia used this power to blackmail Europe. Now, its close proximity has become the source of weakness.

Among all of those pipelines only 5 end in Russian sea ports. Every other pipeline, especially the Druzhba pipeline, enters Western (NATO) territory and are therefore subject of sanctions or worse. The Druzhba pipeline goes anyway partly through Ukrainian territory and the rest such as the pumping stations are anyway in firing range.

3 of the pipelines end near Saint Petersburg in the Baltic Sea, 2 of them go the Black Sea. Among of them, Ukraine successfully struck 2 already. Ust-Luga is inoperable for the next weeks or even months. Shipping companies will increasingly reconsider sending their vessels to those ports which are military targets.

This will be a big headache for the Russian war effort. The current attacks are still small in size, using a handful of drones, but already caused considerable damage. When Ukraine starts mass-hitting those ports, then the Russian air defense will not be able to stop the outcome, even when destroying 99% of all drones….

ORAC

25th Jan 2024, 09:34

H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-OWA-UAVs.html)

Guide to Ukraine’s Long Range Attack Drones

Russia’s use of long range drones, principally the Iranian Shahed type, against Ukraine is well documented. These are termed one-way attack drones (OWA-UAVs), or informally as 'Kamikaze drones'. These are used as part of large scale attacks combined with more expensive cruise missiles. While the Shaheds are valid offensive weapons in their own right, they are being used to stretch Ukrainian air defenses and create better chances for the larger cruise missiles.

Ukraine too is increasingly using this type of drone. Like Russia, Ukraine can use OWA-UAVs as part of larger packages to improve the success of cruise missiles.But Ukraine also uses them for very long ranged attacks on strategic targets deep inside Russia. This has several purposes. The targets themselves, such as oil storage sites and airfields, are of strategic importance. These attacks also serve to make the Russian population more aware of the war. And, it stretches Russian air defenses forcing some to be deployed far away from the front lines.

This article will focus on the Ukrainian OWA-UAVs which can strike deep into Russia. It relies on public information; the usual caveats apply.
.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/940x529/image_8c4255055a42e3404d9fa6f6cc3fc0c313d7a630.jpeg

NutLoose

25th Jan 2024, 11:39

The new warfare, I simply cannot see away around it until they sort out individual drone jamming devices.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750434861616165312

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750434861616165312

Luc Lion

25th Jan 2024, 11:42

There is another thing that doesn't add up with the POW transport narrative in the IL-76 crash.

Just compare the fireball produced by the IL-76 with the fireball produced by the National Air Cargo's B747 in Bagram in 2013.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750097262829568288

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUWC2jfjqI

You can also compare the sound of the 2 deflagrations.
Beware, the sound in Bagram is muffled 'cause the video is recorded in an armoured vehicle, however the distance is much shorter.

I may be wrong but, to me, the B747 is a deflagration caused by a full load of fuel while the IL-76 is a high power explosion caused a cargo of high explosive ammunitions.
The blast effect of the IL-76 crash even triggered a (vehicle?) alarm.

Also the panorama video with the IL-76 remains shows a large area filled with tiny pieces while the hull arrived mostly intact to the ground.
This is again indicative of a very powerful explosion.

NutLoose

25th Jan 2024, 11:44

More on the IL-76 crash, and who was supposed to be on board.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750496286766227786

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750496286766227786

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1750497105980891332

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1750497105980891332

NutLoose

25th Jan 2024, 11:49

Russian lead-propagandist Margarita Simonyan published what she claims to be a list 65 Ukrainian POWs that died on board of IL-76. The only issue is that 17 of them were exchanged on January 3

:)

RedToo

25th Jan 2024, 12:28

More on the IL-76 crash. It mentions that the plane was departing Belgorod, I'm not sure that's been established yet.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1750154906554785998.html

NutLoose

25th Jan 2024, 12:31

The Russians are tunneling again.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1750473129627901988

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1750473129627901988

ACW342

25th Jan 2024, 12:47

Because they are a bunch of imbeciles.
Nutty,
I'm afraid I'll have to take you to task for your smear on those that I now call my previous colleagues.

After my 22 years in the RAF I was fortunate enough to gain employment with BBC Northern Ireland (in a non production role) where I worked for 19 years.
The news people I knew, both local and national, were far from imbeciles. Rather the reverse and reporting in NI in particular had to be concise, precise and truthful, especially with the terrorist threats against their lives. I somehow would not call those reporters that have been to the front line in Ukraine and come under fire just to bring the realities of war to the British and wider public ,as imbeciles, nor would I call our reporter based in Gaza an imbecile as he had to be exactly neutral in his reporting from inside that territory in the knowledge that, just as was the case for those reporters N not so long ago, he was probably under threat from certain members of Hamas

On the shoot down of the Il-76 I suggest that you go to the BBC iPlayer and listen to Sarah Rainsfords report on todays (25/01/24) World at One, at or about 13:10. I think you owe those people an unreserved apology for your unwarranted smear.

A342

RedToo

25th Jan 2024, 12:56

Video on the IL-76 with geo-location strongly suggesting that the plane was flying away from Belgorod.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeB8x9ljGwE

chopper2004

25th Jan 2024, 13:11

Six former Marineflieger SKs warmyl received from Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DxV3_6zBFE

cheers

jolihokistix

25th Jan 2024, 13:14

Video on the IL-76 with geo-location strongly suggesting that the plane was flying away from Belgorod.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeB8x9ljGwE
Forgive the ignorance, but does that upward mushroom cloud not suggest that something was fired upwards almost directly from below? Could such a cloud be created by a hit from the side?

Luc Lion

25th Jan 2024, 13:50

No.
A mushroom cloud just indicates that there was a fireball at the place marked by its foot.
After an initial expansion phase in all directions, the heated air then starts to rise while still continuing its expansion in all direction.
That air is filled with smoke and possibly fine dust.
The expanded air, filled with smoke, is the head of the grey mushroom.
Underneath it, you also have a blackened area that indicates the path that was traversed by the rising air.

The reason for that typical "mushroom" shape with large head and thin foot is fluid dynamics.
Air moves in air with swirling motion.
While the fireball air is rising, an annular clear air rotor moves around the head of the mushroom and replace the air just underneath it.
By doing so it visually thins out the foot.

If you ever happen to see a nuclear explosion, it's the same phenomenon on a much larger scale.
You then have one or two secondary annular rotors caused by rising air from the heated ground: the mushroom rings.