Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[ORAC]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1710316403671322904?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Russian air defense shot down another of their own Su-35 fighter jets today near occupied Mariupol. 2nd time in less than a week.

[GlobalNav]

Do we think the Hamas attack on Israel is partly a tactic to divert US attention from Ukraine? Sponsored by Syria under pressure from Putrid?

My guess is that Hamas has more to worry about than what's happening in Ukraine. Not sure what they think they can gain from what they've done either. Israel is not submissive prey. Perhaps they think the political turmoil in Israel is a crack in the wall they can take advantage of.

[Sfojimbo]

Just to provide a link to the current attack in Israel.
There is nothing about this story that relates to Ukraine.

There is only one nation, apart from Ukraine, with the combat pro end drones to carry out these attacks - and t9 provide either the operators and/or training.Except for Turkey, China, Iran, Pakistan the US, Britain, Australia. Then there is the possibility that Azerbaijan might have sold off some of theirs now that they don't need them anymore. Oh yea, Russia makes drones too.

ORAC in case you didn't know, Israel and Russia are very friendly (to say the least).

[The Helpful Stacker]

Russia is in total control of the conflict......Ukraine will capitulate very soon.

Come on...first post in nearly a year and that's all you give us?

Surely you have something more substantial to add, after such a long period of reflecting on this topic?

[downsizer]

Come on...first post in nearly a year and that's all you give us?

Surely you have something more substantial to add, after such a long period of reflecting on this topic?

He's just clocked back on, give him time to earn those rubles.

[NutLoose]

Clearing mines on the way to Tokmak.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710731146693054591

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710731146693054591

[NutLoose]

???
How do you thwart whole NATO Air Power with a nuke? And with which carrier system do you want to achieve that? You can easily wipe out a city like Kiev. But in order to reach for instance Ramstein (and this wouldn't even thwart NATO Air Power, there is still for example the big docked Aircraft carrier HMS UK or its sister ships Spain and France) ballistic Iskanders won't be able to reach it. A Cruise Missile chuggin along merrily for close to one and a half hours over 1000km of NATO territory without being shot down? Ain't gonn'a happen. Only realistic option: ICBM with MIRV.
Can we please refrain from such blatant oversimplified phrases/scenarios. Don't consider your opponent to stoopid. They make mistakes. They make errors in judgement. They may be incompletely/ill informed. Still doesn't mean they are all out idiots. As*holes maybe but not idiots.


I probably , ok did, word that badly, what I was trying to get across is once he has dropped one, then his gloves are off and there is nothing to stop him dropping more and destroying Ukraines cities and infrastructure, at which point what would be the use of NATO AirPower be? Ukraine would be gone and unless you intended to go to war with Russia what would you target, and if you did use NATO AirPower against Russia then what is to stop Russia ramping up the conflict to WW3?

[NutLoose]

More advances.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710736379968139633

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710736379968139633

[NutLoose]

And then there were 8 lives lol.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710696875798548758

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710696875798548758

[NutLoose]

Possibly another SU35 downed.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710295174599880989

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710295174599880989

[NutLoose]

Melitopol partisan women at work.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710244624546099282

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1710244624546099282

[NutLoose]

Romainians filming Ukrainian air defence shooting down drones across the Danube river.


https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1710478650397589867

https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1710478650397589867

[NutLoose]

USA is offering the Israeli iron dome to Poland in exchange for sending their patriots to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1710412826311811223

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1710412826311811223

[ORAC]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/joe-biden-huge-final-ukraine-aid-package/

Biden considering huge ‘one and done’ Ukraine aid package

US president wants to get issue sorted until next election, say insiders, as Republican sceptics continue to cause problems

Joe Biden is considering a “one-and-done” spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine until the next presidential election in an attempt to overcome an impasse with Republicans, The Telegraph understands.

The White House is drawing up plans to ask Congress to release its largest funding package ever for weapons and humanitarian aid, amid concern continued rows over spending could damage the president in next year’s election.

The war has become a major dividing line among Republican congressmen in recent weeks, holding up Mr Biden’s request for a $24 billion (£19.6 billion) package designed to last until early next year.

Nato leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, have expressed concern US support could dry up (https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/) altogether, forcing European states to make up a shortfall of around $2.7 billion per month and rely on their smaller stockpiles of weapons.

Some officials believe passing a single package, which could be as large as $100 billion, may give the Biden administration the best chance of securing funding for the war until after next November’s election.

“The ‘big package’ idea is firmly supported by many throughout the administration,” said a source familiar with discussions. “Supporters of Ukraine want this to be a one-and-done big bill, and then not have to deal with it until after the next election.”….

A US administration official told The Telegraph that the White House is “not making any decisions about whether to do one big package or about how much it would be” until after the election to replace Mr McCarthy, which is expected to begin on Wednesday.

But they said a large package to fund the war until November 2024 was “one option” under consideration.

A “one-and-done” Ukraine spending Bill would be opposed by some Republicans, and may require Mr Biden to make concessions on border control and other Right-wing talking points in exchange for his request being put to a vote by the new Speaker.

If a vote reaches the House floor, it would likely pass with the support of almost all Democrats and around half of Republican representatives. Ukraine funding also has the support of a significant majority of senators…..

[Bug]

Romainians filming Ukrainian air defence shooting down drones across the Danube river.




https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1710478650397589867

Reminds me of what it must have been like in UK in WW2 with V1 attacks.

[West Coast]

I somehow doubt the use of nuclear weapons come in single packages and “Tactical nukes” are simply words banded about to make it sound that dropping a bucket of instant sunshine on some one is okay as it’s only a little one.

It isn’t, a nuke, Is a nuke, Is a nuke….. one hopes the West has had the balls in no uncertain terms to tell Moscow, one nuke and Moscow is a smouldering glow in the dark hole.

That HAS TO BE the response, because if you do not respond then the Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and tinpot dictators the world over may gamble on dropping one in the belief there will not be a response.

A small tactical nuke popped off in an isolated part of Ukraine should cause the west to nuke Moscow?

[Winemaker]

A small tactical nuke popped off in an isolated part of Ukraine should cause the west to nuke Moscow?
'A small tactical nuke'. Where do you draw the line? One, two, three, 5 kton, 10 kton, whatever. I assume the U.S. and partners have made serious statements to Moscow about the consequences of even 'a small tactical nuke' to the authorities in the Kremlin. Once one is not responded to, more to follow.

It is truly bizarre watching the Soviet TV shows with commentators urging that Russia nuke London and Berlin with (and I understand this is official propaganda shyte) no seeming understanding that England and Germany et al would not accept the destruction of their major cities without responding. What are they drinking (or smoking)? Is there an invisible shield over Moscow? Weird.

Russia has a GDP 1/20th ± that of the Ukrainian allies in this war. They are not the empire they seem to believe they are.

[Sfojimbo]

'A small tactical nuke'. Where do you draw the line? One, two, three, 5 kton, 10 kton, whatever. I assume the U.S. and partners have made serious statements to Moscow about the consequences of even 'a small tactical nuke' to the authorities in the Kremlin. Once one is not responded to, more to follow.

It is truly bizarre watching the Soviet TV shows with commentators urging that Russia nuke London and Berlin with (and I understand this is official propaganda shyte) no seeming understanding that England and Germany et al would not accept the destruction of their major cities without responding. What are they drinking (or smoking)? Is there an invisible shield over Moscow? Weird.

Russia has a GDP 1/20th ± that of the Ukrainian allies in this war. They are not the empire they seem to believe they are.IMO West coast asked an uncomplicated question and you took the question sideways without answering it. And you took the person it was directed to off the hook at the same time.

I would like to see that question answered.

[West Coast]

'A small tactical nuke'. Where do you draw the line? One, two, three, 5 kton, 10 kton, whatever. I assume the U.S. and partners have made serious statements to Moscow about the consequences of even 'a small tactical nuke' to the authorities in the Kremlin. Once one is not responded to, more to follow.

It is truly bizarre watching the Soviet TV shows with commentators urging that Russia nuke London and Berlin with (and I understand this is official propaganda shyte) no seeming understanding that England and Germany et al would not accept the destruction of their major cities without responding. What are they drinking (or smoking)? Is there an invisible shield over Moscow? Weird.

Russia has a GDP 1/20th ± that of the Ukrainian allies in this war. They are not the empire they seem to believe they are.

I don’t care the size of the nuke, I don’t care the disparity of GDPs. If Moscow is nuked, DC, London, Paris, etc are a few minutes to hours away from the same. I’m all onboard with continued funding, I’m not onboard with ending the world over a tactical nuke popped off away from population centers.

[Low average]

Tactical Nukes can fly both ways. If Putin decides to engage in mass murder, it might start tactical but would end strategic in my opinion. He's a clear sociopath, so the only reason he hasn't done so already would be self-preservation.

[DogTailRed2]

Tactical Nukes can fly both ways. If Putin decides to engage in mass murder, it might start tactical but would end strategic in my opinion. He's a clear sociopath, so the only reason he hasn't done so already would be self-preservation.
Nukes will not be used because NATO is not directly threatening Russia and a nuke on Ukraine is not going to change the tactical picture. The land lost is lost to both sides. What it does do is encourage NATO to put boots on the ground and that does not help Russia at all. Russia wants to drag Ukraine into a war of attrition so it can negotiate some form of peace and claim territory. Unfortunately for Russia that isn't going too well.

Let's see. Russia drops a nuke on Kyiv. That totally disrupts the Ukrainian military however Russia is so depleted it cannot take advantage of that destruction. You now have a smoking hole in the middle of Ukraine.
Ukraine has to regroup, maybe retreats. Russia again cannot make any significant advance as it's so depleted militarily but even if it did it would be weak on a very broad front. NATO puts boots on the ground. Pushes forward behind Ukraine with equipment and supplies for Ukraine to bolster it's front line perhaps now with air support, more armour, arty and suppression. Ukraine pushes forward with NATO now protecting flanks, rear.
Russia is now in a worse position. Drop more nukes and ultimately drag this into a lose lose (or invoke a total conventional war with NATO ultimately leading to a lose for Russia) for everyone. Stay put and be defeated. Retreats.
Take your pick but I don't see anyone in Russian high command advocating a loose, loose scenario? Self preservation will intervene.

[dead_pan]

Ahh the ol' nukes chestnut again. It won't happen for many reasons, importantly that China would take a very dim view were Russia to take a lead in their use (it certainly wouldn't be the West).

BTW any action against Zaporizhzhia nuke plant etc would fall into the same category as the use of a nuke itself. The US has said as much.

[Exjumperuk]

...I don't see anyone in Russian high command advocating a loose, loose scenario?.
I know that its being pedantic but I hope you mean 'lose lose'. Why can't people grasp this simple spelling?

[antheads]

Ahh the ol' nukes chestnut again. It won't happen for many reasons, importantly that China would take a very dim view were Russia to take a lead in their use (it certainly wouldn't be the West)
You reckon? I reckon china won't mind if the ruskis and the anglos/yanks nuke themselves so they can continue their inevitable march towards being the world's superpower.

So what's the scenario here, Russia facing certain defeat in crossing their red lines, ie Crimea, drops a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in Ukraine. Nato reacts conventionally, by destroying all and sundry ruski forces in Ukraine, including the black sea fleet and any offensive capability that russia has in attacking Ukraine. What do you think russia is going to do next?

That totally disrupts the Ukrainian military however Russia is so depleted it cannot take advantage of that destruction.
The thing is. Ukraine is already a failed sttate. It's not just military aid, USA/EU paying for all the public servants, social services, pensions etc. In this regard Russia has already won.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1710966627796160605?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Intense combat footage from Ukraine (that apparently doesn't exist):

​​​​​​​ 1st Company of the 1st Battalion of the 3rd Assault Brigade receiving a direct hit into their M113, dismounting, setting up circular defence under heavy fire, and helping and evacuating the wounded.

[sealo0]

I know that its being pedantic but I hope you mean 'lose lose'. Why can't people grasp this simple spelling?
Lost in translation probably!

[Fitter2]

Antman (2nd post; another Ruzzian troll or just a new alias?)
You reckon? I reckon china won't mind if the ruskis and the anglos/yanks nuke themselves so they can continue their inevitable march towards being the world's superpower.

Without their western customer base the Chinese economy would collapse. They care.

​​​​​​​The thing is. Ukraine is already a failed sttate.

And Russia isn't ?

[dead_pan]

You reckon? I reckon china won't mind if the ruskis and the anglos/yanks nuke themselves

Then you really haven't been paying attention then, have you?

Incidentally, how long do you think Russia can continue spending a third of its annual budget on this adventure before something gives? At this rate your average Russian can give up on having a functioning healthcare system, decent schools for their kids, any new infrastructure etc etc

[PPRuNeUser0211]

The thing is. Ukraine is already a failed sttate. It's not just military aid, USA/EU paying for all the public servants, social services, pensions etc. In this regard Russia has already won.
Without wishing to state the blindingly obvious... the reason the UKR requires financial support is because it has next to no economic activity (and therefore tax income) due to the invasion. Therefore yes, it does and will continue to require support for domestic systems well after the end of the war when the Russians are outside the border. Reconstruction is going to cost a fortune, but the advantage of that is the kickstart it will give a post war economy (provided funding comes from outside).

All of this doesn't mean Russia has completed their objectives. It means they've failed as Ukraine's allies have rallied around them. We must continue to do so, otherwise yes, they may have achieved something.

[NutLoose]

A small tactical nuke popped off in an isolated part of Ukraine should cause the west to nuke Moscow?


If you allow it, then what… that is the problem, say North Korea nukes South Korea having seen Russia get away with it, or China hits Taiwan .
You have to use a deterrent that equals the threat or those countries will operate with impunity. What use would your Air Power be over North Korea or China?

That is what I am trying to get across, strike in kind keeps the genie in the bottle, to not brings the rest of the world closer to destruction

Does that make sense?

[antheads]

All of this doesn't mean Russia has completed their objectives.
As with any war, the objectives have changed. Due to Russia catastrophic military failure, a stalemate and bleeding Ukraine dry financially and with blood is a victory condition. Outlast western democracy support for supplying hundreds of billions to Ukraine. You know that pesky USA election coming up, and a few more EU elections.

how long do you think Russia can continue spending a third of its annual budget on this adventure before something gives?
They did it in WW2, and i'll place a bet, they'll outlast any western democracy in this regard. Yanks already complaining about Ukri spending when it's 1 percent of the budget. Don't forget Ukraine is at their doorstep just like Mexico or Cuba is to America.

[NutLoose]

Thanks for that Comrade, now be a good fellow and pop of back to the Krumblin.

[antheads]

Thanks for that Comrade, now be a good fellow and pop of back to the Krumblin.
Of course Sir, I guess my membership in the London private military club has been revoked? Sorry for disturbing your echo chamber.

[fdr]

As with any war, the objectives have changed. Due to Russia catastrophic military failure, a stalemate and bleeding Ukraine dry financially and with blood is a victory condition. Outlast western democracy support for supplying hundreds of billions to Ukraine. You know that pesky USA election coming up, and a few more EU elections.

They did it in WW2, and i'll place a bet, they'll outlast any western democracy in this regard. Yanks already complaining about Ukri spending when it's 1 percent of the budget. Don't forget Ukraine is at their doorstep just like Mexico or Cuba is to America.

Putins objectives have remained the same for about 15 years; Ruzzia for Putin, all for Putin, and tough pirogi to the rest,

It is a revelation that compared to the 1941 USSR, that the corruption of the Put-on regime and the Ruzzian peasantry at large, they make Stalin look like being a liberal, and a strategy genius. Putin wanted his name in history, think that is assured. He has done more damage to the Ruzzian economy, prestige, psyche, army, airforce, and navy, (with a defender that didn't have a navy after the first 12 hours of Putin throwing his rattle out of the crib. Cruelty was a feature of the USSR in WW-II, and there was justification for some anger, but Putin has managed to put more of his government of grifters into the sights of a war crimes tribunal than Joe did in 41-45. Well done, Vlad, you get to go down in history, much as Wile E, Coyote has. The RT talking heads complete the image of a looney tunes credits....

"That's all folks!"

[FUMR]

I know that its being pedantic but I hope you mean 'lose lose'. Why can't people grasp this simple spelling?

I would learn to ignore it. I had the same with aviation people referring to hangars as hangers. Now I've just mellowed and accepted that if I understand what they mean, so be it!

[RatherBeFlying]

Vlad full well knows that any nukes produce fallout in Russia.
​​

[safetypee]

Why You Should Stop Reading News
Our obsession with being informed makes it hard to think long-term.
We spend hours consuming news because we want to be informed. The problem is, the news doesn’t make us informed – quite the opposite. The more news we consume, the more misinformed we become.

News is, by definition, something that doesn’t last. It exists for only a moment before it changes. As news has become easier to distribute and cheaper to produce, the quality has decreased, and the quantity has increased, making it nearly impossible to find the signal in the noise.

Rarely do we stop to ask ourselves questions about the media we consume: Is this good for me? Is this dense with detailed information? Is this important? Is this going to stand the test of time? Is the person writing someone who is well-informed on the issue? Asking those questions makes it clear the news isn’t good for you.

What can you do differently?
… spend less time consuming information and more time thinking.

https://fs.blog/stop-reading-news/

[FUMR]

safetypee, ref to your last sentence "spend less time consuming information and more time thinking", things might be very different if the average Russian was capable of that!

[NutLoose]

A Russian ammo depot near Tokmak has been hit.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711016268772294968

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711016268772294968

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nicholadrummond/status/1711037222407864388?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​What happens when a Russian T-90M is hit by a Ukrainian tank firing 120 mm APFSDS round with depleted uranium.

[HOVIS]

There appears to be some doubt that it was a tank round. Possibly an ATGM?

[NutLoose]

Yes, either ATGM or Directional AT Mine, viewed from a distance you can see the smoke trail and no tank at the other end.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710905841337901102

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710905841337901102

[NutLoose]

North Korea is transferring Artillery to Russia.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1710321700628308243

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1710321700628308243

[West Coast]

If you allow it, then what… that is the problem, say North Korea nukes South Korea having seen Russia get away with it, or China hits Taiwan .
You have to use a deterrent that equals the threat or those countries will operate with impunity. What use would your Air Power be over North Korea or China?

That is what I am trying to get across, strike in kind keeps the genie in the bottle, to not brings the rest of the world closer to destruction

Does that make sense?

If you’re inferring Moscow should glow because Vlad pops off a tactical nuke, then no it doesn’t make sense at it will precipitate WWIII.

[langleybaston]

Vlad full well knows that any nukes produce fallout in Russia.
​​

In a winter easterly at all relevant levels?

[West Coast]

Vlad full well knows that any nukes produce fallout in Russia.
​​

The US has nuked Nevada hundreds of times producing downwinders, likely some cancer (John Wayne) and some class action lawsuits. Hiroshima and Nagasaki populations are larger than they were pre WWII and are completely livable. You think Vlad is a little worried about producing some fallout?

[Wokkafans]

Intense combat footage from Ukraine (that apparently doesn't exist):

1st Company of the 1st Battalion of the 3rd Assault Brigade receiving a direct hit into their M113, dismounting, setting up circular defence under heavy fire, and helping and evacuating the wounded.


UK flag on one of the troops at 1:02

[NutLoose]

Another push

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711098065086521606

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711098065086521606

[NutLoose]

A bit of thread creep, but he is abhorred at what is going on in Israel, but what he says is actually what Russia is doing in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1710990527355662429

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1710990527355662429

[Sfojimbo]

A bit of thread creep, but he is abhorred at what is going on in Israel, but what he says is actually what Russia is doing in Ukraine.
​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1710990527355662429
Putin's reasoning for the war on Ukraine is virtually identical to Israel's justifications for their war against the Palestinians.
They need to secure their borders and the other (country) isn't really a country anyway.

The Germans circa mid 20th century were a bit more honest about their expansion plan; they called it Lebensraum.

[judyjudy]

I don’t think that the residents of the countries Germany invaded had been teaching their citizens that Germany was not a real country that had no right to exist. Applies to present day Ukraine too vis a vis Russia

[Sfojimbo]

I don’t think that the residents of the countries Germany invaded had been teaching their citizens that Germany was not a real country that had no right to exist. Applies to present day Ukraine too vis a vis RussiaI have never seen anything that showed me that the Ukrainians have ever claimed that Russia wasn't a real country or had no right to exist.

[judyjudy]

Exactly my point. I may have said it wrong

[Sfojimbo]

Exactly my point. I may have said it wrong
Somehow I don't think that was your point.
But I don't want to put words in your mouth.

[fdr]

Yes, either ATGM or Directional AT Mine, viewed from a distance you can see the smoke trail and no tank at the other end.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710905841337901102


it was something with a bit of annoyance at the tank. The tank fires parallel to the the track, and then 2 seconds later it explodes on the track, with the barrel still aligned with the track, about 2 o'clock to the direction of movement. immediately after what appears too be a single detonation, a dust trail is seen traversing from the tank at about 3 O'clock from the direction. of travel, it isn't a sympathetic discharge from the tank, it hasn't reloaded in that time, the cycle rate of the auto loader is observable in the close ups.

The detonation is well defined, the lateral trail has something that had enough energy to riccochet off the ground 150 meters down range. If it was another tank the guys were being them from the side they came from, the same with a ATW, and a mine? I would think that even the Russians would be upset with being plinked at from behind. There is no trail into the tank from the rear left side, so.... mine?

The commanders ears would have still been ringing from the last shot when his tinnitus became moot. All for a Lada?


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1526x888/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_05_42_pm_e2283954ef0039f8c9ef0fe e02df24aa14f3969e.png
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1184x814/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_05_52_pm_85a9c5e10b450123c460bd1 cb288b2e9d8efbed8.png
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1406x752/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_06_29_pm_7b54b572d806e6816cb424f 0f8a9b66f0d17b0da.png
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1384x692/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_07_10_pm_17ebeba8dff2fc84f25ba7b a49de9df42cbb6ae9.png
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1482x726/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_06_47_pm_0dd0920e847cf441d8e6015 e65969edd3d65e82f.png
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1384x692/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_07_10_pm_2b28bc777dc924f8cabae50 7d39fe61b55256d7b.png
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1292x750/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_7_07_28_pm_43d60ce6938e53faabaeaa2 5f8de1506aac06214.png

[fdr]

I have never seen anything that showed me that the Ukrainians have ever claimed that Russia wasn't a real country or had no right to exist.

Oddly, until the RT talking heads got in on the act, even Putin hadn't stated such a thing. Ukraine has exactly the same right to exist as Russia has, no more and certainly no less. Ukraine has never suggested to dismantle Russia, the only person working towards that end happens to be Putin, with the assistance of the RT charmers.

[ORAC]

ISW:

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter

Ihnat stated on October 8 that Russian forces have increased the intensity of Shahed strikes recently, as Ukrainian officials previously warned.

Ihnat stated that Russian forces used 1,000 Shahed drones during the 2023-23 heating season but used a record 500 drones during September 2023 alone, indicating that Ukraine needs to prepare seriously for Russia’s 2023-24 winter drone strike campaign.

Ihnat noted that Ukraine is gradually replacing Soviet air defense systems with Western-provided systems and intends to use these systems to protect Ukrainian energy facilities, port infrastructure, grain silos, and other critical infrastructure against Russian drone strikes this winter.

Ihnat added that Russian authorities want to increase the production of Shahed drones domestically but cannot overcome their reliance on Iran for certain technologies and spare parts required for production.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1711101284458058029?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian sources say that as many as 70-90% of all Russian deaths on the battlefield are caused by bleeding, rather than fatal wounds. An effective collapse of the Russian army's combat medical care means that anything more than a light wound is likely to be lethal. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711101284458058029.html
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

It must be all those sanitary towels that women was recommending they bought as field dressings months ago, they fair suck up the blood quicker than a hungry vampire..

[Wokkafans]

Some unique field mods here:

https://twitter.com/AFVRec_/status/1711122329030299932?s=20


https://twitter.com/AFVRec_/status/1711122329030299932?s=20

[Wokkafans]

@FDR 5809.

There is a slowed down clip out there (which I now can't find) that shows an ATGM coming in from left of screen and flying over the top of the scrub towards the tank. It's only a few frames but a grab here:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1680x919/djvvmlu_4b860325347fd60b838f0b8cecd1f4d7ded84424.png

[NutLoose]

A hit on Russian GRU troops.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1711278691035083210

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1711278691035083210

[NutLoose]

Medic training, Russian style..:sad:

https://twitter.com/s_hnizdovskyi/status/1708535769659326830

https://twitter.com/s_hnizdovskyi/status/1708535769659326830

[NutLoose]

Russia's armed mobile Aviary

https://twitter.com/AFVRec_/status/1710960744475381784

https://twitter.com/AFVRec_/status/1710960744475381784

[fdr]

@FDR 5809.

There is a slowed down clip out there (which I now can't find) that shows an ATGM coming in from left of screen and flying over the top of the scrub towards the tank. It's only a few frames but a grab here:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1680x919/djvvmlu_4b860325347fd60b838f0b8cecd1f4d7ded84424.png

thanks Wokka,

get that on the "x-file" video too. The tank commander is looking rearwards, died relaxed. Wonder if the trace going outbound after impact is the result of the reactive armour going off. Tank fired about 2 seconds before it joined the cosmonaut corps, and close to reciprocal to the flight of the ATGM, might have been an expensive day all round.

Vlad could change their name to the armoured corpse, seems more appropriate at the rate they blow up.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1152x834/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_10_24_09_pm_f489ab1f51382590474f46 39a920244e12b40d83.png
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1152x840/screen_shot_2023_10_09_at_10_24_34_pm_ca5ce943d64ad037c35e85 41d150769e68d927d8.png

[DogTailRed2]

Can anyone explain what the tank is trying to achieve here apart from just randomly driving around and being a target?
Randomly firing. No infantry support?

[Beamr]

Can anyone explain what the tank is trying to achieve here apart from just randomly driving around and being a target?
Randomly firing. No infantry support?
Looking at the video there is no context (where did it come from, where is it going, what is the situation overall) and as a foot on the ground I would be much further away from the MBT than what can be seen in the video (the quality is so poor that the grunts might be in the treeline somewhere but who knows). So your guess is as good as anyones. Probably just ar*ing around being a target.

[Lonewolf_50]

Can anyone explain what the tank is trying to achieve here apart from just randomly driving around and being a target?
Randomly firing. No infantry support? He was shooting at something off screen. Perhaps an opposing tank?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1711370488432230416?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine informs that Russia has already handed over to Hamas terrorists trophy weapons seized during military operations in Ukraine and manufactured in the USA and EU countries.

The next step is supposed to be fake accusations of the Ukrainian military of selling Western weapons to terrorists on a regular basis.

Right on cue, Medvedev wrote this on his Telegram channel:

"Well, NATO friends, have you had it coming?

The weapons handed over to the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine are being actively used in Israel. Further on, just like the weapons left behind by runaway Americans in Afghanistan, it will be used uncontrollably in all hot spots."

[NutLoose]

I tend to agree with this.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1710988040884158826

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1710988040884158826

[NutLoose]

And which side do you believe, one lying Sh*t or one man of honour.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1711446045010415834

https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/status/1711464828051537965

[GlobalNav]

Putin's reasoning for the war on Ukraine is virtually identical to Israel's justifications for their war against the Palestinians.
They need to secure their borders and the other (country) isn't really a country anyway.

The Germans circa mid 20th century were a bit more honest about their expansion plan; they called it Lebensraum.

Funny, none of the other neighboring countries felt such a need. Sorry, this is pure BS!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1711505764437664078?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin, commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army, has reportedly been reassigned to the post of Chief of Staff of the Central Military District less than three months after replacing Major General Ivan Popov in controversial circumstances. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711505764437664078.html
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

A Bridge To Far, Russian's attempting to advance near Vodyane.... That must be off putting for those following lol.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711694805934215530

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711694805934215530

[NutLoose]

Russia is trying to push back

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711753112615092600

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711753112615092600

[NutLoose]

Good to See Ukraine targetting the earth moving equipment used to build Russian defence lines.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711634485614141738

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711634485614141738

[NutLoose]

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/680x680/f8dxjqfxwaa1b7u_52d180cd987fcc09ad14be84cc7e6dc19802aecb.png

[Herod]

A Bridge To Far, Russian's attempting to advance near Vodyane.... That must be off putting for those following lol.



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711694805934215530

"Left hand down a bit, Hoskins"

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile the brightest and soon to be the latest Russian soldiers to be lost, carry on rearming their grad... Where the F*ck is their health and safety man, not a tabbard amongst them.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711700088836260055

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711700088836260055

[NutLoose]

A Ukraine strike taking out multiple targets.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711280037255589972

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711280037255589972

[Winemaker]

Meanwhile the brightest and soon to be the latest Russian soldiers to be lost, carry on rearming their grad... Where the F*ck is their health and safety man, not a tabbard amongst them.



https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711700088836260055
Geez.... Even I know that if it doesn't slide in something's wrong.

[langleybaston]

It is doubtful [to say the least] that insertimus interruptus is going to work either.

[Lonewolf_50]

A Ukraine strike taking out multiple targets.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711280037255589972
A grim reminder of the lethality of modern weapons. (The overhead video of the artillery attack).
As to the puerile cereal box parody, does that kind of nonsense really belong here?
My view is: no.

[OwnNav]

"Left hand down a bit, Hoskins"
To quote Ned Seagoon Little Jim "He's fallen in da water"

[Captain Dart]

Apologies for the pedantry, it’s Little Jim who said that.

[langleybaston]

Apologies for the pedantry, it’s Little Jim who said that.

King Charles III would have picked that one up.

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian SU-25 taken out by a loitering munition :( the one thing that concerns me and makes me wonder if it is a decoy is that it does not appear to move when hit or even rock with the impact.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1711843075998269528

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1711843075998269528

[Herod]

That's the concrete Sukhoi, or even the one painted on the ground, with shadows

[NutLoose]

It appears some of the Russian military are already beaten. Good to see such a motivational pep talk for the troops.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1711849111467540768

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1711849111467540768

[fdr]

That's the concrete Sukhoi, or even the one painted on the ground, with shadows

nope, the shadows change with aspect, it is at least 3D, and it does burn. The set didn't move it much but it did hit right in the middle of the gear geometry

[Tartiflette Fan]

That's the concrete Sukhoi, or even the one painted on the ground, with shadows

Nope, definitely flammable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQCF-Jy2f64&t=433s at 5:30

[ORAC]

Total Russian hypocrisy - or delusion…

https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/1712017935563215228?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Solovyov accuses Israel of waging a "brutal" war against Gaza, unlike Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine

He says that unlike 🇮🇱, 🇷🇺 never cuts off its enemy's electricity, which makes you wonder why it was firing missiles at 🇺🇦 energy infrastructure all of last winter

[NutLoose]

Total Russian hypocrisy - or delusion…



​​​​​​​Solovyov accuses Israel of waging a "brutal" war against Gaza, unlike Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine

He says that unlike 🇮🇱, 🇷🇺 never cuts off its enemy's electricity, which makes you wonder why it was firing missiles at 🇺🇦 energy infrastructure all of last winter


What he SHOULD have said is

He says that unlike 🇮🇱, 🇷🇺 never cuts off its enemy's electricity, we tried, but failed miserably.

[antheads]

Since my opinion posts are going to jetblast, and to have a balance with nutloose and orac here is the russian daily perspective from rybar. as i said many times stalemate. loss of many lives of both sides. negotiations at the end of winter at the latest.

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on October 9-10
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1711961572460175655

[Ninthace]

Since my opinion posts are going to jetblast, and to have a balance with nutloose and orac here is the russian daily perspective from rybar. as i said many times stalemate. loss of many lives of both sides. negotiations at the end of winter at the latest.

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on October 9-10
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1711961572460175655
The original post shows a blank in my browser but it mined for the link, opened it, and it come up blank too. I assume there were no highlights?

[fdr]

Since my opinion posts are going to jetblast, and to have a balance with nutloose and orac here is the russian daily perspective from rybar. as i said many times stalemate. loss of many lives of both sides. negotiations at the end of winter at the latest.

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on October 9-10
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1711961572460175655

but, who exactly in Russia has a word that has any value any longer? The problem with being congenital liars and breaching every accord that you enter is, you get a bit of a reputation for being without honour and untrustworthy.
Which Russia would anyone ever trust the word of again? Lying as an art form comes with downsides.

[antheads]

but, who exactly in Russia has a word that has any value any longer?.
Wow, talk about dehumanising a whole people, just like the Isr defence minister referred to the gazans as 'human animals'? I can give you 10-100 dissident links. Did you ever look in the mirror fdr and realise you sometimes sound like a <redacted> (involves ww2)

[Tartiflette Fan]

Since my opinion posts are going to jetblast, and to have a balance with nutloose and orac here is the russian daily perspective from rybar. as i said many times stalemate. loss of many lives of both sides. negotiations at the end of winter at the latest.

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on October 9-10
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1711961572460175655

Yes, you do keep saying this, and in doing so are ignoring the facts - and also present no back-up for your claim.

ORYX website which relies on photo/video evidence confirms that Russia is losing close to three times the amrs that Ukraine is. UKR has battled its waythrough all of the Surovikin belt ( in places, not all length ) and is now threatening Tokmak physically, although the town and its very important rail connections are within normal artillery range

How can you blithely ignore the destruction of the 3 x Ka 52 helis recently plus a dozen or so planes by drones ( and 2 x Su 35 own-goals !!! ) : then comes Minsk landing-ship, the Kilo-class sub black-Sea fleet HQ and its back-up, followed by the evacuation of Sevastopol by the Black Sea Fleet.

As I said before - for those with eyes and a brain - it is clear that Russia is getting its arse kicked all around the ring and when GLSDB arrives , it will be a bleeding punch-drunk clinging to a ring-post.

Back-up your stalemate claims in a way that counters what I have put forwrd i.e. verifiable figures.

[[email protected]]

Wow, talk about dehumanising a whole people No, Putin has done that on your behalf - if people regard Russia as a nation of liars, capable of atrocities that would make actual nazis balk, then it is his actions, those of his generals and troops and those that actively or tacitly support him who have created this belief.

[NutLoose]

Since my opinion posts are going to jetblast, and to have a balance with nutloose and orac here is the russian daily perspective from rybar. as i said many times stalemate. loss of many lives of both sides. negotiations at the end of winter at the latest.

Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on October 9-10
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1711961572460175655

From
Official account of Russian think tank Rybar.... re 1:34 of that link posted.

In fact did you read the comments on the Rybar link? hence why I try to find collaborating evidence.

Also yall gonna ever take note that Ukraine has gotten footholds over the river.

RU took tactical heights on the outskirts of novomykhailivka? so youre trying to paint that column that drove into a minefield and artillery fire 200m from the zero line as a successful advance?

RU reached berdychi? any evidence? everybody else has it firmly under AFU control, and RU isnt even at stepove


War Gonzo also says different, ( Another Russian and "highly rated for his accuracy" perspective )

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711632676891844695

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711632676891844695

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709473913317581233

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709473913317581233

Another Russian one

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709474987180994868

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1709474987180994868

[NutLoose]

Aviation. Belgium appears to have had a rethink on the F-16 and will provide them in 2025 and cover all maintenance.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1711996926923526387

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1711996926923526387

[RedToo]

And this Rybar post?


The same operation seen from the Ukrainian side. Needless to say somewhat different.

[antheads]

ORYX website which relies on photo/video evidence confirms that Russia is losing close to three times the amrs that Ukraine is.

I respect and accept ORYX, what do you think Ukraine and ruski production capabilties are? Even with NATO and it's wavering support. (esp with that Isr-Gaza war coming up?)

UKR has battled its waythrough all of the Surovikin belt ( in places, not all length ) and is now threatening Tokmak physically,
I'll believe it when i've seen it. We've heard it so many times before, in western media. Ukris broken through the first line of defence. You know about the ruski elastic defence, withdraw and then when the enemy is in the open fields, full bore attack?

How can you blithely ignore the destruction of the 3 x Ka 52 helis recently plus a dozen or so planes by drones ( and 2 x Su 35 own-goals !!! ) :
So, what does 3 helis and a few jets have to do with boots on the ground and the meatgrinder on both sides. as have been posted here, you might have missed the ruskis taking out the ukri su-25s on their airfields.

then comes Minsk landing-ship, the Kilo-class sub black-Sea fleet HQ and its back-up, followed by the evacuation of Sevastopol by the Black Sea Fleet.
Granted that is a major defeat for russia and i'm not sure how they can recover from not having their black sea fleet in crimea thanks to english storm shadows.

As I said before - for those with eyes and a brain - it is clear that Russia is getting its arse kicked all around the ring and when GLSDB arrives , it will be a bleeding punch-drunk clinging to a ring-post.
As I posted before GLSDB will be sweet but will achieve parity with range and cost (production rates?) with the upgraded ruski Lancet drone. No wunderwaffe.

Back-up your stalemate claims in a way that counters what I have put forwrd i.e. verifiable figures.
So what's your point here, an overwhelming Ukrainian victory? my point is stalemate and negotiations. How about you back it up mate?

[Lonewolf_50]

Andrij Yermak, head of the presidential office in Kyiv, also shares this assessment, stating that there are "massive attacks by Russian artillery."

Ukraine had already warned yesterday about the deteriorating situation around Awdijiwka.

"The enemy is trying to encircle the city," said Barabasch. "The risk of the city being occupied has existed for a year, but today (October 10, 2023), the situation is deteriorating rapidly."

Before the war, Awdijiwka had a population of around 30,000. That number has now dwindled to about 1,600. The city is located 13 kilometers from Donetsk. Interesting caveat in the article.
These claims have not yet been independently verified and should be treated with caution.
In war, it can be advantageous for conflicting parties to deliberately spread misinformation to strengthen their own position or weaken the opponent's.

[langleybaston]

The concept of a massive attack by artillery is novel to me. Defence yes, but attack?

[Tartiflette Fan]

I respect and accept ORYX, what do you think Ukraine and ruski production capabilties are??)


You know about the ruski elastic defence, withdraw and then when the enemy is in the open fields, full bore attack?


So, what does 3 helis and a few jets have to do with boots on the ground and the meatgrinder on both sides. as have been posted here, you might have missed the ruskis taking out the ukri su-25s on their airfields.

As I posted before GLSDB will be sweet but will achieve parity with range and cost (production rates?) with the upgraded ruski Lancet drone. No wunderwaffe.


So what's your point here, an overwhelming Ukrainian victory? my point is stalemate and negotiations. How about you back it up mate?


Estimate Ukr can kill 10 x Ru annual tank production ( obviously a guess but based on current rate of losses and Ru quoted production.

" when the enemy is in the open fields, full bore attack" Vodka delusions. When has Ru managed any such attack - unless you count Bakhmut and I wouldn't call a ten-month massacre of Ru mobiks "full-bore"

That would be 2 x Ukr assets against 12-15 Ru planes. Not that Ru uses its planes much, except for long-range missile-launching.

Lancet is now up to 70 km ( very recently ) with a 5 kg warhead, weather and remote-guidance dependent.. GLSDB is 150 km with 90 kg warhead, all-weather.precison self-guided I suppose though, in your propaganda bubble, that makes the Russian weapon better.

I think Ukraine will cut the supply-line from Rostov ( Tokmak attack ) then the Kersk bridge and Russian forces in the south will wither on the vine ( or freeze/starve in their trenches ). I do wonder what the Ukr will do with them all that survive. Events in the East are beyond my ken, unless the loss of Crimea either causes Putin to double hiis efforts , or try to cobble together some nonsense to explain a total withdrawal. If Ukr regains Crimea, then being able to concentrate all forces in the East along with 60 - 100 F-15's plus more or less unlmited GLSDB could possibly give Ukr a chance to crush a demoralised Ru army. How this achieves re-integrating the Donbass into Ukraine when so many of its citizens are pro-Russki, I don't know.

[Lonewolf_50]

The concept of a massive attack by artillery is novel to me. Defence yes, but attack?
Yes. Artillery is used in attacks.
Not by itself, usually, but it is certainly an offensive weapon.
You may also be seeing a case of "something was lost in translation" ... and perhaps you or I might have called it a barrage, or said something like "massive artillery barrages from the Russians"Put another way, if you are in your position, and your enemy lets loose with an artillery barrage, you are being attacked. (Or do you disagree with that?)
You may or may not see an associated armor or infantry attack to accompany the shelling.

[antheads]

Vodka delusions. When has Ru managed any such attack - unless you count Bakhmut and I wouldn't call a ten-month massacre of Ru mobiks "full-bore"

We were discussing Russia's response to the Ukraine offensive on the southern flank.

But one unusually daunting obstacle to Ukrainian troops is a tactic adopted by Russian forces: ceding ground and then striking back.

Rather than holding a line of trenches at all costs in the face of Ukraine’s assault, security experts say, Russian commanders have employed a longstanding military tactic known as “elastic defense.”

To execute the tactic, Russian forces pull back to a second line of positions, encouraging Ukrainian troops to advance, and then strike back when the opposing forces are vulnerable — either while moving across open ground or as they arrive at the recently abandoned Russian positions.

“The defender gives ground while inflicting as heavy casualties as they can on the attackers with a view to being able to set the attackers up for a decisive counterattack,” said Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land war studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British research group.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-elastic-defense-counteroffensive.html#:~:text=Russian%20Troops%20Cede%20Grou nd%20and,staging%20grounds%20for%20future%20attacks.

GLSDB is 150 km with 90 kg warhead, all-weather.precison self-guided I suppose though
Let's See, the original HIMARS rockets were supposed to be the wunderwaffe that would obliterate ruski supply lines, GLSDB is twice the range granted, let's see if the production rate can keep up with the upgraded lancet and the KAB‐1500/FAB-500 glide bombs. (400kg warhead).

I think Ukraine will cut the supply-line from Rostov ( Tokmak attack ) then the Kersk bridge and Russian forces in the south will wither on the vine
What's your timeline? 2023 or 2026?

[Lonewolf_50]

When has Ru managed any such attack - I think that from Feb to May of 2022, attacks of that kind were taking place as the Russian advance westward began (aimed at places like Crimea and Kherson). Lately, probably not so much.

[ORAC]

Fingers crossed…..

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1712110382188241053?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


There is unconfirmed information that a few hours ago in the roadstead of Sevastopol, a large Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” was "blown up"

Wait for more info 🤔

At the moment, several different Telegram channels wrote about it, with reference to local residents. Therefore, I am waiting for official information or a photo.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1089x674/image_4b87b9a3d6acd490252b602c232a28e3b87ab993.png
​​​​​​​

[Beamr]

Todays numbers of Russian losses are stunning: 34 tanks and 91 APC's! Even if the numbers would be off by 50% they would still be phenomenal.

Russian counter attack isn't doing that well.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711981109725086125

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711981109725086125

[langleybaston]

Todays numbers of Russian losses are stunning: 34 tanks and 91 APC's! Even if the numbers would be off by 50% they would still be phenomenal.<br /><br />Russian counter attack isn't doing that well.<br /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711981109725086125">https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711981109725086125</a><br /><br />Maybe, but as Mandy Rice-Davies famously quipped "Well he would say that, wouldn't he?"

[NutLoose]

I think it is because of their push for Avdiivka.

Armour Losses

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712117283227660500

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712117283227660500

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712147257338867867

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712147257338867867

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712135129458491509

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712135129458491509

​​​​​​​ https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712092724919230780

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712092724919230780

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712113784360161654

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712113784360161654

[Tartiflette Fan]

I think that from Feb to May of 2022, attacks of that kind were taking place as the Russian advance westward began (aimed at places like Crimea and Kherson). Lately, probably not so much.

Possibly. I was not counting the early months when the Russkis profited from their treacherous invasion.

Todays numbers of Russian losses are stunning: 34 tanks and 91 APC's! Even if the numbers would be off by 50% they would still be phenomenal.

Russian counter attack isn't doing that well.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711981109725086125

Giving only an end-date gives little information about true attrition.

[NutLoose]

More armour losses Russia push.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1711977619032359201

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1711977619032359201

[ORAC]

Confirmation on the loss of the patrol ship….

https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1712162483933184124?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Large ship "Pavel Derzhavin" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet exploded on its own mine, - Odesa OVA speaker Bratchuk

​​​​​​​https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1712192853047206038?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


According to preliminary data, the large patrol ship "Pavel Derzhavin" of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia was blown up by a Russian mine.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/wyrmdale/status/1712193671553016261?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[ORAC]

Denmark intends to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in the first half of 2024

Minister Troels Lund Poulsen has said that his country intends to deliver the first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine no later than the first quarter of 2024, i.e. by March or April, Danish broadcaster TV2 reported.

Poulsen added that the specific delivery date depends on the pace of training of Ukrainian pilots.

The Danish Defense Ministry did not say exactly how many fighter jets Kyiv would receive.

The Danish army has 43 F-16s in service; the Netherlands has approximately the same number of aircraft. Both countries have announced their intention to transfer their fighter jets to Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Belgium said it would transfer it’s F-16s to Ukraine starting in 2025.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/trenttelenko/status/1712187526985736241?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


It's time to talk about the AFU's Avdiivka🦃 shoot of the RuAF.

The @PStyle0ne1 account had a very nice thread posting many videos of the failed Russian assault.

Check them out and come back here to read the rest of my thread.

Avdiivka🦃 shoot🧵

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1712187526985736241.html
​​​​​​​

[fdr]

Wow, talk about dehumanising a whole people, just like the Isr defence minister referred to the gazans as 'human animals'? I can give you 10-100 dissident links. Did you ever look in the mirror fdr and realise you sometimes sound like a <redacted> (involves ww2)

Anti, I read and speak Russian, and have saved the jobs of Russians in foreign airlines, I have been given land in Russia in appreciation and could not accept the generosity. I read TsAgI reports in Russian, I have owned & flown former Soviet single engine jets. The murder of reporters and dissidents in Russia I have written about extensively, naming all of the victims of what passes for Mir in today's Russia.

Putin is arguably the richest man in the world, from the salary of a KGB officer, a low ranking clerk in the St Pete Council, and from an annual salary of 8,900,000.00R. Love to know what bank gives him the compounding interest he must get. Putin is, a liar, a would be tsar not for the betterment of Russia but the betterment of Putin, he cares nowt about the Russians that he has had slaughtered, and he cares less, almost as little as he does for treaties, agreements and other niceties of civilisation, for the Ukrainians. He does not honour any agreement, not Brest-Litovsk, Alma-Ata, Minsk, he does not respect the USSRs constitution, or that of Russia. ( seems to be catchy that one) He is a... cheat, fabulist, deceiver, (pick a synonym... )Medvedev surfaces from his benders to sprout nonsense, parroting Lavrov the Hutt, the UN Ambassador trots out the party lies knowing they are lies, knowing that everyone knows that he knows that they are lies, Shogiu continues to lead from behind (a rather voluminous one) displaying tactics and strategy that appear to come from the missing works of Sun Tau, the art of self defeat. the Duma are... don'y know they are silent, the cabinet? loyal partners to the crime syndicate.

I have listed those murdered by the Kremlin, the dissidents, opposition and journalists, those people who believe that Russia deserves better than the circle of jerks on their crime spree. Russia reminisces back to the good old days, than never were. The great patriotic war.... that is the one that started as Molotov entered a plan with Ribbentrop to carve up Poland. It's curious that the UK declared war only on Germany at that time from an act that Russia was a willing partner in crime. After his now favourite Alsatian turns around and bites Joe on the Butt in June 1941, all of a. sudden the USSR is the party being unfairly treated and deserving of sympathy? But these are remembered as the good ol' days by Russia, when their perfidy came back in spades, and they avoided defeat by the simple measure that Hitler was dumber than dirt. Joe had purged his military, as, well, it's Russia and murder is our gig.

Alex Navalny is a part of the path to a better future of Russia, he is a teller of truth, he exposes the corruption of the oligarchs and the Crimlin gang, and Vlad responds to truth with his stunningly corrupt judiciary, Alice in wonderland level of distortion, projection and inhumanity. The Russian serfs know to keep their head down, Pavlovian training is effective.

Russias wars have also been listed in detail by me on these pages, there are no countries that Russia will tae the opportunity to attack. Russia claims it is in self defence, methinks they should stop killing their neighbours and perhaps acquire by some means a copy of Carnegies "how to win friends and influence people".

Without a Navalny in the seat, a true patriot of Russia, one who believes that there is a spark of civilisation somewhere under the corruption and outright criminality that Russia currently exhibits, without such a person and sea change in attitude, I see no reason for anyone to rely on an assurance, treaty, pact, protocol, LOI, MOU, IOU or anything that is backed by the concept of Ruzzian "integrity".

IMHO. E&OE

[NutLoose]

It appears that Ukraine may be getting a ground based air defence system built around the AIM-9M and possibly an updated Chaparral system.

The U.S. military says it will soon deliver "new" air defense systems to Ukraine that fire AIM-9M Sidewinder heat-seeking missiles. What these systems are remains a mystery, but The War Zone has previously discussed (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-aim-9m-sidewinders-can-be-used-in-multiple-ways) the possibility of a surface-to-air Sidewinder capability for the Ukrainian forces. This followed the unexplained inclusion of AIM-9Ms, an older air-to-air version of the Sidewinder, in previous U.S. military aid packages earlier this year.

A new tranche of U.S. military aid for Ukraine "includes AIM-9 munitions for a new air-defense system that we will soon deliver to Ukraine," U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier today (https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3553148/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-16th-ukraine/) at the sixteenth meeting of the multinational Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels, Belgium.

The Sidewinders are just part of the full aid package the Pentagon announced today (https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3553644/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/), which is valued at $200 million. It also includes "precision aerial munitions" (a term used in the past to refer to Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-su-27s-are-launching-jdam-er-winged-bombs-too) precision-guided bombs), TOW anti-tank missiles (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40111/the-armys-plan-to-finally-replace-the-tank-busting-tow-missile), artillery and small arms ammunition, unspecified counter-drone and electronic warfare "equipment," and more.

No details have emerged so far about what these air defense systems consist of beyond the AIM-9M Sidewinders working as their effector. The War Zone has asked the Pentagon multiple times in the past for more information about how Ukraine would use these Sidewinders.

As The War Zone has noted in the past, the idea of a ground-based Sidewinder air defense system is not new. Between the 1960s and the 1990s, the U.S. Army fielded such a system, called the Chaparral (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-aim-9m-sidewinders-can-be-used-in-multiple-ways). This consisted of a turreted four-round launcher mounted on either a tracked vehicle based on the M113 armored personnel carrier (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-army-eyes-buying-more-new-apcs-after-m113-transfers-to-ukraine) or a trailer. Chaparral used derivatives of the AIM-9 Sidewinder known as MIM-72s (https://designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-72.html).
​​​​​​​

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mysterious-sidewinder-air-defense-systems-headed-for-ukraine

[NutLoose]

Talk about a target rich environment. It reminds me of the early days on the road to Kyiv, a column of vehicles too close together and stalled at the first line of defence.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712240934404915220

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712240934404915220

i mean the road is obviously mined judging by the dead vehicles and you just know what is going to happen next, but forward they roll, just like Lemmings..

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1712239339831234562

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1712239339831234562

[ORAC]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1712047337122439255?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The United Kingdom announced the transfer of stationary Terrahawk Paladin anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine. In the standard configuration, the installation is equipped with a 30-mm Mark 44 Bushmaster II cannon with a possible increase in caliber to 40 mm.

A new package of the UK military support for Ukraine is worth more than £100m.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-new-package-of-support-for-ukraines-counter-offensive-announced-by-grant-shapps

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x599/image_8f6e1e9a775259c4e53e07585b20fd7f81924668.png
​​​​​​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

We were discussing Russia's response to the Ukraine offensive on the southern flank.

Let's See, the original HIMARS rockets were supposed to be the wunderwaffe that would obliterate ruski supply lines, GLSDB is twice the range granted, let's see if the production rate can keep up with the upgraded lancet and the KAB‐1500/FAB-500 glide bombs. (400kg warhead).


What's your timeline? 2023 or 2026?

The tactics discussed sound like what Putin is being told . " We have this marvellous tactic where we ambush the Ukr........" which never gets put into practice. If it were, then the Ukr would be smashed and stopped: the fact that they are slowly continuing the advance in the South shows that this is more Dreamtime stories and put out there, I presume, by the Russian stooge at the NYT.

Himars did make - and continue to make - a huge difference. How many munition dumps, fuel-depots, C&C posts have been blown uop with large loss of Russki officers ? Do you look at any vlogs * showing - particularly recently - the number of Grad MLRS, Pion 203 mm SPG, Uragan 220 mm MLRS and ordinary 152 mm guns wiped out in Himars strikes ? Have a look, educate yourself. Obviously this has also immensely increased efforts for resupply since storage is now so much further back and in smaller quantities. If 90 km is turned into 150 km then their supply position becomes hopeless. Have you not noticed the many comments/reports/graphs and Telegram posts from Russian mobiks talking about how the supplies of Ru artillery shells has dropped off dramatically, to the extent that that Ukraine is now firing more ( and much more accurately ).? Ru would hardly be going begging to NK for shells if they had huge stocks in depots ready to supply, eh ?

Tell us about the upgraded Lancet then : how much larger warhead than 5 kg ? KAB‐1500/FAB-500 glide bombs - ah yes, a dumb bomb with wings. Is that all you got chucky ?

2023/First half 2024 depending on F-15 and GLSDB supply.

* Look here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ77yIXnuzc - from 5:00 listing losses of tanks/APC,s nad artillery in most recent attack on Avdviika


P.S To add to the three Su 35 shot down by their own AAA,we can now add the modern patrol boat Pavel Derzhavin blown up on a Russian mine near Sevastopol. I suppose this is another occasion where one can say " Well done, Russia, keep up the good work "

[Timmy Tomkins]

Without a Navalny in the seat, a true patriot of Russia, one who believes that there is a spark of civilisation somewhere under the corruption and outright criminality that Russia currently exhibits, without such a person and sea change in attitude, I see no reason for anyone to rely on an assurance, treaty, pact, protocol, LOI, MOU, IOU or anything that is backed by the concept of Ruzzian "integrity".

IMHO. E&OE

And Vladimir Kara - Murza

[DogTailRed2]

Artillery barrages work if you can catch the enemy in the open. For smashing fortifications not so effective. Monte Casino (aerial barrage) and The Somme two examples where a heavy barrage did little.

[flyingorthopod]

Artillery barrages work if you can catch the enemy in the open. For smashing fortifications not so effective. Monte Casino (aerial barrage) and The Somme two examples where a heavy barrage did little.

Somme didn't work for British because it wasnt heavy enough and because army wasn't experienced and trained enough to fight a combined artillery infantry battle properly. It worked very well on the French side of the attack

[NutLoose]

And Monte Cassino made it harder to take and easier to defend.

[Lonewolf_50]

Monte Casino: you ever been there? Mountainous terrain.
The topic of this thread: War in Ukraine.
A lot of the fighting in Ukraine is on terrain that is not mountainous.

[NutLoose]

Avdiivka, What was happening..

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385378676514861

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385378676514861

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385380509487455

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385380509487455

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385382451437885

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385382451437885

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385384380862765

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385384380862765

​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385384380862765​​

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385384380862765

​​​​​​​ https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385386251477197

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385386251477197

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385388638302329


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385388638302329


​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385391003656541

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385391003656541

[Fitter2]

Previous examples are of 20th C wars (and the first examples fought with 19th C generals). The UKR forces are fighting a 21st C war (although their enemy may have failed to keep up).

[NutLoose]

Agreed, but there are comparisons, the destruction of Monte Cassino and the difficulty in taking the place due to the ruins offering better defensive positions could be compared to Bakhmut and its destruction. The same goes for Mariupol.

[NutLoose]

Russia Is dropping incendiary weapons again against Ukrainian troops.

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1712600318171607139

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1712600318171607139

[fdr]

Russia Is dropping incendiary weapons again against Ukrainian troops.



https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1712600318171607139

​​​​​​​that could just be the fallout from the Russian armoured corps going up in smoke.... you never can tell.

Russia used WP in civilian areas, wonderful people, must be trying to make friends with their neighbours.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1712437045249839592?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Crazy footage of Russian infantry being decimated by artillery (including cluster munitions) to the north of Odradivka, Bakhmut direction. Work of the 45th Brigade.

[MPN11]

Agreed, but there are comparisons, the destruction of Monte Cassino and the difficulty in taking the place due to the ruins offering better defensive positions could be compared to Bakhmut and its destruction. The same goes for Mariupol.Peerhaps Caen, post D-Day, might be a better example. My father watched the waves on bombers flattening the city, which then became impassable to Allied armour but produced an excellent defensive scenario for the Germans.

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712748398812496170

Ukrainian soldier 'Osman' from the 24th Aidar Batallion reports that 'based on UA intelligence data, Russia lost ~2000 soldiers in the last 3 days, trying to capture (the outskirts of) Avdiivka."

It looks like Ukraine may have retaken the high ground near Avdiivka

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712731987432112132

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712731987432112132

[NutLoose]

Something happening in Sevastopol? or the ship that hit the mine?

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1712739146555351170

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1712739146555351170

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/10/13/media-russian-kalibrcarrier-ship-exploded-in-sevastopol-video/

[NutLoose]

it looks like Ukraine has taken out a main supply route bridge between #Donetsk (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Donetsk?src=hashtag_click) city & Horlivka, that also took out the railway.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1712415790115205494

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1712415790115205494


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x576/1697190489_ed1c9a033640b2d4132837dbf323324ce00031e4.jpeg

[NutLoose]

:)

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1711262877552652580

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1711262877552652580

[dead_pan]

Something happening in Sevastopol? or the ship that hit the mine?



https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1712739146555351170

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/10/13/media-russian-kalibrcarrier-ship-exploded-in-sevastopol-video/

That looks like video game footage

[ORAC]

The Netherlands will send from 12 to 18 F-16 fighter jets to Romania to train Ukrainian pilots

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren has said that the country's armed forces will send from 12 to 18 F-16 fighter jets to a Romanian training center for Ukrainian pilots in the next few weeks.

Ollongren, quoted by the NLTimes, said that the training center could start operating after that.

The official did not specify when the Netherlands intended to hand over the first fighter jets to Ukraine so that it could use them on the battlefield.

[ORAC]

Nutloose,

Looks like confirmation that it was a second ship destroyed - and a failed attempt on a sub…

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1712762728610218021?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​The SBU, together with the Ukrainian Navy, attacked the missile carrier "Buyan" and the ship "Pavel Derzhavin" using experimental armament of marine drones.

Sources in the SBU confirm that today's attack on the missile carrier "Buyan" and the day before yesterday's sabotage of "Derzhavin" were carried out by the Security Service and the Ukrainian Navy.

Both ships were hit by "Sea Babies" with experimental weaponry.

🔹 'After the first explosion, Russian minesweepers and divers couldn't detect our innovation. Yesterday, the submarine "Alrosa" got lucky and managed to escape from our developments.'…..

[ORAC]

https://x.com/albafella1/status/1712512649106202883?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Ruzzians tried to storm Ukrainian positions in the Tauride direction, but aerial reconnaissance and anti-tank crews with drones stopped them. 6 Ruzzian tanks and 3 infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed, about 30 invaders were eliminated.

[antheads]

Himars did make - and continue to make - a huge difference. How many munition dumps, fuel-depots, C&C posts have been blown uop with large loss of Russki officers ?
Of course, but you you will never hear the other side because reporting on it is treason, minimum 5+ years in a Ukri prison.

how the supplies of Ru artillery shells has dropped off dramatically, to the extent that that Ukraine is now firing more
These facts are disputed, I've heard this propoganda since the start of the war. Some say the Ukris are firing more, some say the Ruskis are firing more. Until Michael Koffman and Rob Lee and the Polish guy confirm it, I'll see it when i believe it. (unlike the neo-cons at ISW)

You do realise that with the low tech and high production rates of GLSDB, the ruskis can produce their own version right? Esp with those western chips and components being imported into russia through Dubai/Kazakhstan/Azerbaijan et all.

USA only offering the mid life f-16 upgrades, at best parity with the su-35 radar. All it will do with the the amout of AAD in the area, is that both sides will stay way clear of the frontlines and lob missiles at each other.

2023/First half 2024 depending on F-15 and GLSDB supply.
Wow that's a bold claim, i'm willing to bet against that,500 pounds . lets put it in escrow. u say ukraine overwhelming victory i say stalemate and negotiations by the end of european winter.

[NutLoose]

I cannot argue with her logic.

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1645903598046396416

Ukraine gave up 3000 nuclear warheads because we were promised we would be protected. Now, our soldiers are castrated, beheaded & burned alive. Their screams will haunt us for eternity. We watch our children kidnapped, we watch our houses bombed. But remember, we musn't provoke russia.

[GeeRam]

USA only offering the mid life f-16 upgrades, at best parity with the su-35 radar.

I guess its escaped your notice that USA are not offering any F-16....:rolleyes:

Its Netherlands, Denmark and now also Belgium that are offering their F-16's.

[antheads]

I guess its escaped your notice that USA are not offering any F-16....:rolleyes:

Its Netherlands, Denmark and now also Belgium that are offering their F-16's.
It has not escaped my notice that USA only gave European countries security clearance to provide F-16 Block 15/20 MLU fighter jets.. Granted this late 80s/early 90s upgrade of the F-16 is on par with the latest ruski fighter jet tech. Those countries are replacing their obsolete F-16s with the F-35. So no big deal for USA.

[NutLoose]

LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!! :ooh:


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x900/f8tpbynw4aamkk__fbcccaab18a4c9742a6746e1be6666052f00f202.png

[NutLoose]

Re the damaged ships


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/808x816/f8t7ezoxgaalnuf_14945198c0d4b70c649c93f615aad4734c5935cf.png

[NutLoose]

Russian volunteer in Ukraine pleading for Russians at home to send..... Body Bags, as they have ran out!

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712755347155272040

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712755347155272040

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1712803461891330467

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1712803461891330467

[Lonewolf_50]

2023/First half 2024 depending on F-15 and GLSDB supply. Did you mean F-16? I do not recall hearing about F-15's to UKR.
The GLSDB looks like an interesting piece of kit. Taiwan is interested in them as well.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Did you mean F-16? I do not recall hearing about F-15's to UKR.
The GLSDB looks like an interesting piece of kit. Taiwan is interested in them as well.

Not too conversant with fighter variants, so should be type conventionally discussed for supply.

[Canary Boy]

I, like most PPruners, look to the deployment of F16s with anticipation. I note that at least one country is timing delivery of the airframes to UKR coincident with the ‘training of pilots’, but little or nothing has been said about ground support etc.. No doubt Pruners more conversant with these things than I can shed light on just how these assets and support could be operated from UKR in anything like relative safety - surely a prime target for the baddies?

[Tartiflette Fan]

I, like most PPruners, look to the deployment of F16s with anticipation. I note that at least one country is timing delivery of the airframes to UKR coincident with the ‘training of pilots’, but little or nothing has been said about ground support etc.. No doubt Pruners more conversant with these things than I can shed light on just how these assets and support could be operated from UKR in anything like relative safety - surely a prime target for the baddies?

Do you believe that Ukr has a duty to inform the wider world ?

[DogTailRed2]

I, like most PPruners, look to the deployment of F16s with anticipation. I note that at least one country is timing delivery of the airframes to UKR coincident with the ‘training of pilots’, but little or nothing has been said about ground support etc.. No doubt Pruners more conversant with these things than I can shed light on just how these assets and support could be operated from UKR in anything like relative safety - surely a prime target for the baddies?
Aircraft come as a package (I would surmise) and so the ground support would be delivered with the aircraft as a complete military unit. It would be pointless not to.

[Canary Boy]

T Flan - you read more into my post than was intended, please credit me with a modicum of intelligence! I merely wonder if they will be the panacea we all hope for. Of course I hope they will be and are able to operate safely and effectively. Am I wrong to be concerned that we place more reliance on their ability to be a game changer than is realistically possible?

[Lonewolf_50]

I merely wonder if they will be the panacea we all hope for. RU SAMs are still a thing. UKR has not (yet) established EW spectrum superiority as far as I can tell.
Of course I hope they will be and are able to operate safely and effectively. Am I wrong to be concerned that we place more reliance on their ability to be a game changer than is realistically possible? Better than nothing, by a fair margin. How the SAM suppression/mitigation (SEAD) is cobbled together will be an interesting challenge for UKR Air Force to handle.

[Canary Boy]

Thanks for the considered response L50. Food for thought. It may, hopefully, be a late winter/early spring bringing surprises to all - especially the invaders. 🤞🏻
PS - I note with interest that Warthog Defense are claiming to have ‘firm’ video evidence of Russki advisers directly involved in the Hamas incursions. This is getting very complicated…

[Canary Boy]

The video with translation is on YT. Whether Russki regulars or some form of mercenary is open to debate. It poses a question as to whether supplies to both Ukr and IDF will be possible. Beeb reporting that the US have satellite imagery showing N Korean supplies to Putrid’s troops arriving near Ukr border.

[jolihokistix]

LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!! :ooh:


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x900/f8tpbynw4aamkk__fbcccaab18a4c9742a6746e1be6666052f00f202.png

This is one of Russia’s traditional strengths.

(They do not particularly look at the numbers.)

[NutLoose]

I, like most PPruners, look to the deployment of F16s with anticipation. I note that at least one country is timing delivery of the airframes to UKR coincident with the ‘training of pilots’, but little or nothing has been said about ground support etc.. No doubt Pruners more conversant with these things than I can shed light on just how these assets and support could be operated from UKR in anything like relative safety - surely a prime target for the baddies?


Belguim has offered to cover the maintenance on all donated F-16’s, but I would imagine that will be deep maintenance, not day to day, although that could be controlled from out of Country.

Belgium will provide Ukraine with “several” F-16 fighter jets starting in 2025, Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder said (https://www.rtl.be/actu/belgique/politique/la-belgique-va-envoyer-des-f-16-lukraine-annonce-la-ministre-de-la-defense/2023-10-11/article/596901) Bel RTL.

According to the interview, the exact number is unknown. However, the minister said that the amount of Belgian F-16 fighter bombers that would be sent to Ukraine, will “depend on the ramp-up of our new F-35 capability”.

[b]In addition, Ludivine Dedonder also announced that Belgium would continue its pilot training efforts and offer to take charge of maintenance for the coalition’s entire F-16 fleet.


https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/11/belgium-to-send-several-f-16s-to-ukraine-starting-in-2025/

[ORAC]

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1712858158421475592?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


New details about the strike on bridge between Horlivka and Yasynuvata.

The new video shows destroyed Russian T-80 and 2A65 "Msta-B" 152.4mm howitzer, in Addition to the previously known 3-STS Akhmat.

​​​​​​​So the strike was made when a Russian military column moved through this area.

[NutLoose]

Adviivka again more attacks repelled.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713171060487557460

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713171060487557460

[NutLoose]

Ohh what a treat… it looks like the nearest she is going to get to a new car is the truck dumping a pile of logs for her.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1711080785581879494

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1711080785581879494

[Obba]

With these numbers we are seeing; I have been interested (from the start of this war), in the number of tanks that Russia (apparently), had in stock - as in they had war ready!
Was it 6,000+?

If the numbers are true, then over 75% of these 'war ready' tanks are gone?
Or, are the 'old' WAR2 tanks being included in these numbers..?

And just on a side track: One thinks that with the current drone technology nowadays, tanks are seemingly metal coffins.
Never mind when MANPADS first came out (Man can shoulder a tank killer when in his sight).

Now it seems anybody can take a tank out from many kms away...

Slava Ukraini!

[Tartiflette Fan]

With these numbers we are seeing; I have been interested (from the start of this war), in the number of tanks that Russia (apparently), had in stock - as in they had war ready!
Was it 6,000+?

If the numbers are true, then over 75% of these 'war ready' tanks are gone?
Or, are the 'old' WAR2 tanks being included in these numbers..?

And just on a side track: One thinks that with the current drone technology nowadays, tanks are seemingly metal coffins.
Never mind when MANPADS first came out (Man can shoulder a tank killer when in his sight).

Now it seems anybody can take a tank out from many kms away...

Slava Ukraini!

Do you mean WW2 ?

[fdr]

Do you mean WW2 ?

IIRC the Shermans had the apt nickname Ronsons, in round 2, today Russias armour seems to suit "Webber".

Those tank numbers seem to be consistent with the rate of loss that oryx tracked and the increase in lethality with the drones getting airtime.

At some point, one soldier of the Russians will look at the Pk and run the math as to his survival and go hunting Vladimirs in the high tower. It may be a forlorn hope but it seems to be statistically reasonable.

[NutLoose]

Boba, try this, these are based on active losses, those over 100% include extras dragged from storage

https://twitter.com/robbertt4321/status/1710292147054797200

https://twitter.com/robbertt4321/status/1710292147054797200


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/500x628/image_59d0db2a40bd00addae884fb839b69cad9956b1c.png

[Beamr]

It's not just the tanks. APC's are crucial as well. And russkies have been losing those with an increasing rate.
Now they are deploying APC's that entered service in 1954, the BTR-50. A confirmed loss so question arises: what will we see next?

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713201631548805584

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713201631548805584

[Tartiflette Fan]

IIRC the Shermans had the apt nickname Ronsons, in round 2, today Russias armour seems to suit "Webber".

Those tank numbers seem to be consistent with the rate of loss that oryx tracked and the increase in lethality with the drones getting airtime.

At some point, one soldier of the Russians will look at the Pk and run the math as to his survival and go hunting Vladimirs in the high tower. It may be a forlorn hope but it seems to be statistically reasonable.

I think that nickname was applied to all Allied tanks, because they all shared the characteristics of being petrol-driven and with armour that could often be penetrated by superior German cannon.

This might lead you to think that German tanks were diesel-powered and thus less likely to brew-up, but this was not correct. They were also all petrol-driven, but with far better armour against the less-powerful Allied tank-guns and therefore less likely to do a Ronson.

[NutLoose]

Excellent write up on the Russian blunders around Adviivka.


I would like to make an assessment of the momentarily situation around Avdiivka. Russians made a range of huge mistakes, but I would like to start with things which they did right. The first was to apparently conceal their built up in this sector. It is only fair to say that the intensity of the Russian attack in the sector surprised the Ukrainian defense.
The Russian army successfully deployed a strike force which comprises a forces the size of several brigades. To conceal such a large offensive force is a feat in itself and I will give them that. The second feat is to muster logistically such an attack, though there is something which already nullifies this feat, but I will dive into this later. And here it ends what they did right. Despite early success of the Russian attackers primarily around Krasnohorivka (Screenshot 1) and thanks to their clandestine built up in this sector, Russian forces showed almost instantly their weaknesses, especially when it comes to mobile warfare. You cannot describe it differently than they utterly suck here. This has been a constant in Russian warfare since February 24, 2022, and it is mind boggling how little they learned ever since. There were several videos showing large convoys of Russian vehicles trying to squeeze themselves through roads which in the end were basically chokepoints. Especially their strike force from Krasnohorivka, which made few hundred meters progress, showed this development (Screenshot 1). You could observe that Russian tanks were trying to bypass the leading vehicles which likely were stopped by mines or Ukrainian ATGM and drone teams, which btw. fought valiantly. In fact, those Ukrainian ATGMs and drone teams made the difference and stopped the Russian onslaught in the tracks.

This was also likely the moment when the Russian and way too optimistic plans went sideways. We saw countless of Russian vehicles, most of the time the leading vehicles of the convoy, being knocked out, only to observe Russian vehicles trying to bypass them and mindlessly rushing through the fields. The result can been seen in the post I sent yesterday showing the Russian tank which hit TM-62 mines in open field. I'm fully aware that the visibility of T-Series tanks is weak, but running over such a defense line, which certainly was known before the attack was launched and which should be relayed to all offensive units before, only emphasizes the little combat quality the average Russian soldiers brings.

It is true that the Russian High Command consciously sacrifices troops for land, which was especially witnessed in Bakhmut and where the win-loss ratio of up to 1:10 was acceptable, but this is not a tenable strategy. This can be also witnessed in Bakhmut where ever since the Russian army found herself in a defending position and losing ground, gradually. What is the highest blunder of the Russian offensive is the fact that it is strategically seen totally useless. Even when we project that they would take Avdiivka, which is a very big If and after this week more than questionable, it is - even when projected the most optimistic outcome - a huge waste of resource. In my opinion it is even far worse than Vuhledar and Bakhmut because it completely ignores the situation in Zaporizhzhia. We have seen along the southern frontline a huge uptick of Russian losses, especially in terms of artillery. Aside from a range of other objectives, it is obvious that Ukrainian forces methodically degrade Russian artillery capabilities. This comes along with a visible drop of Russian artillery fire, though I assess this is increasingly related to the huge wear of the artillery barrels and less due to ammunition shortages, which however are also an issue since Ukraine methodically destroys logistics hubs. In an atmosphere like this one might assume that Russia would rather chose to further invest in an effective and "elastic" defense and allocate resource to deny Ukrainians to further advance or just degrade the Russian defense in Zaporizhzhia, something which Russian General Ivan Popov was demanding shortly before he got discharged by the Russian Defense Ministry. Instead, this stunt around Avdiivka gets approved and ends as other Russian offensives ended, in utter disaster.

It shows that Putin does not reward competence. He only rewards loyalty. You cannot even say that this Russian offensive around Avdiivka would further bind Ukrainian reserves because Avdiivka has always been a fortress which Ukrainians can defend with a relative minimum of soldiers. In fact, thanks to the Russian offensive in this sector, Avdiivka has become an integral part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive because it binds huge Russian reserves, and the longer the Russian army tries to take the city the better for the Ukrainian war effort in the long run. Even though we cannot entirely assess the Russian losses in the Avdiivka sector, then it still safe to say that they are extraordinarily high and that Russia clearly squandered a huge amount of resources around Avdiivka. It is a strategic blunder because it wouldn't have changed the strategic situation even if Avdiivka would have been taken by Russia. Instead, vital resources needed for the upcoming winter and next year are gone forever.

The whole Russian operation reminds me of the German WW2 offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 which is commonly known as the "Battle of the Bulge". Just like in the Ardennes, German forces surprised the Allies and made tangible gains, but were bogged down against fortified Allied positions, such as in Bastogne, and were mired in long traffic jams. In the end, Germany squandered her last elite forces and wasted resources which were much more needed for the defense.

The question - why Russia launched this offensive in the first place - is justified and I speculate that those are primarily of propagandistic and to a certain extent narcissistic nature. Ever since Wagner's announcement of taking Bakhmut the Russian Ministry of Defense and in particular Shoigu and Gerassimov have been yearning to present something similar to the Russian people. Avdiivka is at the gates of Donetsk and has always been a painful thorn for Russia in this sector. Taking the city even when it would mean to lose countless of resource - similar to Bakhmut - is sometimes more preferable than a (perceived) stalemate. I believe Avdiivka has been selected for this very reason by them. Russians never get tired to claim that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia is a "failure".

This derives from the fact that on the map you do not see many changes, even though the dynamics are huge, just as the Russian losses. But nothing could be more wrong and can get proven statistically as mentioned in the artillery ratio and the fact that Russian artillery systems are getting destroyed in huge numbers. But those strategically important points cannot easily been converted into propagandistic talking points. The public and even the press loves maps and arrows on them and if they lack they draw their own and in most cases wrong conclusions. The Russian leadership thought that if some Russian arrows on the map appear after weeks of perceived stalemate, it would yield in some propaganda points which would be picked up by the press and further increasing political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership. Taking the heating up crisis in Israel and Gaza into account, this might get even more traction.

In the end, I assess that the Russian Avdiivka offensive reflects everything what is wrong in Russia's way to wage war in Ukraine. It is strategically seen a blunder and in the long run will certainly have a negative impact in Russia's war effort, whether they take or take not Avdiivka. It also shows the absolute difference in how Ukraine wages war. In the first weeks Ukraine's counteroffensive, AFU tried to storm the Zaporizhzhia front similar to how Russia storms Avdiivka, though at to no time to the same extent and volume as Russia. Ukrainian forces have drawn the right conclusions, stopped it, changed tactics and started to degrade Russia in a way how to degrade an entrenched enemy. This is not a spectacular way, but an effective one. It will bring the desired results when it continues this way and, more importantly, it will be persistent. Ukraine has something what Russia does not have and this is a coherent war strategy. In the end, this will be the most important reason why Ukraine will win this war.
​​​​​​​

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1713520368151941558

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1713520368151941558

[tdracer]

I think that nickname was applied to all Allied tanks, because they all shared the characteristics of being petrol-driven and with armour that could often be penetrated by superior German cannon.

This might lead you to think that German tanks were diesel-powered and thus less likely to brew-up, but this was not correct. They were also all petrol-driven, but with far better armour against the less-powerful Allied tank-guns and therefore less likely to do a Ronson.
Not quite true - there were some Diesel powered Shermans (although not many), and IIRC all (or nearly all) T-34s were Diesel powered.
I saw someplace that the Diesel powered T-34 had an unplanned problem - the Russians trained dogs strapped with anti-tank explosives to run under tanks - at which time the explosives would detonate and destroy the tank. The problem was they used T-34 tanks to train the dogs - who associated the smell of Diesel with the 'target' - and hence would go after T-34s instead of the gasoline powered German tanks. :ugh:

[fdr]

Not quite true - there were some Diesel powered Shermans (although not many), and IIRC all (or nearly all) T-34s were Diesel powered.
I saw someplace that the Diesel powered T-34 had an unplanned problem - the Russians trained dogs strapped with anti-tank explosives to run under tanks - at which time the explosives would detonate and destroy the tank. The problem was they used T-34 tanks to train the dogs - who associated the smell of Diesel with the 'target' - and hence would go after T-34s instead of the gasoline powered German tanks. :ugh:

The rocket scientists that the RSPCA would have been annoyed with appear to have lived long and prospered and influenced well the Russian tactics of today, with their synchronised "suicide" squads. :}

[DogTailRed2]

I think that nickname was applied to all Allied tanks, because they all shared the characteristics of being petrol-driven and with armour that could often be penetrated by superior German cannon.

This might lead you to think that German tanks were diesel-powered and thus less likely to brew-up, but this was not correct. They were also all petrol-driven, but with far better armour against the less-powerful Allied tank-guns and therefore less likely to do a Ronson.
Sherman's burning wasn't caused by petrol but by the ammo exploding. When they were upgraded with wet ammo racks the incidents of fire dramatically decreased. Also the Sherman's sloping frontal armour was equivalent to the Germans thicker frontal armour. What is decisive was numbers. 50'000 Sherman's produced in WW2. In a war of attrition replacement is key.

[NutLoose]

Another gas line on fire in Russia.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1713080314505920693

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1713080314505920693

[GeeRam]

Not quite true - there were some Diesel powered Shermans (although not many), and IIRC all (or nearly all) T-34s were Diesel powered.


Yes, all T-34 were powered by a V12 diesel engine.
Actually, as regards the Sherman, a fair few of the production were diesel powered, some 25% of the entire production were the A2 version with the twin GM diesel motors.

[NutLoose]

Another bridge hit, sorry for the slow down in material, but the Gaza is making it difficult.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713504929329893545

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713504929329893545

[NutLoose]

It appears to be a Russian shooting their wounded then robbing him!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713470104057393378

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713470104057393378

[DogTailRed2]

I'm never complaining having a bad day again.
Ukraine Front Lines on X: "When it's hard for you and you're tired of the war, just look at one moment in the life of Ukrainian combat medic Anastasia Mutsey. And how is your Sunday? https://t.co/xSYjUAmWCn" / X (twitter.com)

[langleybaston]

Sherman's burning wasn't caused by petrol but by the ammo exploding. When they were upgraded with wet ammo racks the incidents of fire dramatically decreased. Also the Sherman's sloping frontal armour was equivalent to the Germans thicker frontal armour. What is decisive was numbers. 50'000 Sherman's produced in WW2. In a war of attrition replacement is key.

Have you seen the Panther front armour slope?

[Sallyann1234]

Another bridge hit, sorry for the slow down in material, but the Gaza is making it difficult.
​​​
No apology needed. Your work is very greatly appreciated.

[ORAC]

Baba Yaga…

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1713489008066523257?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[fdr]

Another gas line on fire in Russia.



https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1713080314505920693


that is not actually Russia, that is Ukraine territory occupied by the invader, since August 2014, when it was the site of the greatest single loss of Ukrainian forces, due to the dishonourable actions of the Russians. In other words, a day ending in the letter Y.

[fdr]

Yes, all T-34 were powered by a V12 diesel engine.
Actually, as regards the Sherman, a fair few of the production were diesel powered, some 25% of the entire production were the A2 version with the twin GM diesel motors.

471 or 671s?

[fdr]

Baba Yaga…

Wow, the forces involved in that are pretty substantial. That turret came down out of L.E.O., needs to be checked for bits of starlink satellites... Kessler n' all.

To shred the hull like that, either they used weak glue, or there was an headache level bang inside. Can't imagine that the Russians are stupid enough to continue to place their crew in an explosive cauldron with a tag, "light taper here". The Autoloader has killed more Russians than Stalin, well, metaphorically anyway. Rough back of envelope is that's in the area of 50kg of bang going up at once. their HEAT has about 1.6kg of explosives, the frag rounds 3-3.4kg, so that is about half of their lot cooking off at once. A sober "No Smoking" advertisement.

That is one de-nazified RU tank

[ORAC]

Russians giving up on the attack on Avdiivka

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1713491754454839805?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

I'm never complaining having a bad day again.
Ukraine Front Lines on X: "When it's hard for you and you're tired of the war, just look at one moment in the life of Ukrainian combat medic Anastasia Mutsey. And how is your Sunday? https://t.co/xSYjUAmWCn" / X (twitter.com) (https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1713521565499891934)


More on her, brave girl!

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1713206907614151125

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1713206907614151125

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1713291693426938076

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1713291693426938076

[NutLoose]

Ukraine to lease Air defence for the winter.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1713531727241499032

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1713531727241499032

[fdr]

Russians giving up on the attack on Avdiivka
The families of the 7,000 conscripts that got liquified must be pretty happy with their voting system by now. That is a fair stack of firewood or whatever else Vlad is handing out in compensation for his murder of his own citizens who are too brow beaten to revolt to the rather revolting little individual. The Ukrainians did not deserve to have a neighbour with the bad manners that doesn't seem to take the hint that they are not welcome.

[NutLoose]

Russia planned to release Radiation from the plant in Zaporizhia

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1712821099040264577

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1712821099040264577

[NutLoose]

Civilian shipping wars, I somehow doubt the Ukrainian ship reversed into the Russian one!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1712865729966436830

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1712865729966436830


https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1712792438249607660

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1712792438249607660


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/768x1024/f8uppisxoaamyt2_5fabb14ee9c92046f8b380e838c6a7eb3229d6e8.jpg


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/768x1024/f8uppiawqaamn_9_e2d652855e689664dcd3c472dd4d9e4ee3b72644.jpg

[ORAC]

Bd news if you can only trust Russian army rations filled with dog food and water…..

https://x.com/albafella1/status/1713814219701797070?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


In Mariupol (occupied by russia), partisans poisoned the occupiers: 26 occupiers are eliminated and 15 are in intensive care….

[Saab Dastard]

Wow, the forces involved in that are pretty substantial. That turret came down out of L.E.O., needs to be checked for bits of starlink satellites... Kessler n' all.

To shred the hull like that, either they used weak glue, or there was an headache level bang inside. Can't imagine that the Russians are stupid enough to continue to place their crew in an explosive cauldron with a tag, "light taper here". The Autoloader has killed more Russians than Stalin, well, metaphorically anyway. Rough back of envelope is that's in the area of 50kg of bang going up at once. their HEAT has about 1.6kg of explosives, the frag rounds 3-3.4kg, so that is about half of their lot cooking off at once. A sober "No Smoking" advertisement.

That is one de-nazified RU tank
Could that be one of the "suicide" tanks that the russians stuffed with explosives to try to blow up Ukrainian positions?

[NutLoose]

Not bad for a weeks work.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1713870082042949766

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1713870082042949766

[NutLoose]

Another of Russia's target dates.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713174964784824349

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713174964784824349

[NutLoose]

Avdiivka, another attack

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713883540557811923

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713883540557811923

[NutLoose]

A Russian wounded committing suicide, watch at your own discretion BEWARE

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713872999982432708

aerial shots of troops getting killed, again at your own discretion

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713578448990404956

[NutLoose]

Russian drone spotted and their encampment taken out.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713778846300831777

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713778846300831777

[Tartiflette Fan]

Could that be one of the "suicide" tanks that the russians stuffed with explosives to try to blow up Ukrainian positions?

Think the only one seen was a T54/55 and this one was a T 80, so very unlikely use for it.

[fdr]

Another of Russia's target dates.



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713174964784824349

which year?


Russia has to sort out their building maintenance plans. Everything they touch looks like a war zzone, seriously.

[rattman]

Ukraine just struck Berdyansk again for dunno how many times now. But big strike lotsa ammo cooking off.

Fighter bomber claims its was multiple atacms strikes (follow twitter chain for video of cook offs)

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1714164680103432382

[rattman]

Guess it could have been GLSDB as well

[Tartiflette Fan]

Guess it could have been GLSDB as well

More likely I think, both because of the timing ( recent Saab/Boeing announcement re delivery) and type of target (dispersed aircraft )

[ORAC]

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1714178261364969556?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Now confirmed, NASA's FIRMS detected a number of fires at Berdyansk airport at around 0300 local time.

The airport, heavily used by Russian rotary wing assets, was burning.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x834/image_9f7838838c8ffff52fcbab72de65543344806a94.png

Of note, all three of those returns were collected on the same pass by VIIRS NOAA-20 at a FRP of 2.32-2.49. In other words, whatever was burning was burning brightly.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x523/image_e27859dbf314966dad698e23b8ad87db15bead5b.png
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

Wooow, that'll put a dent in their operations if correct.

Official: Ukrainian SOF hit Russian airfields in temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk.

As a result of the "DRAGONFLY" operation in Berdyansk and Luhansk, the following were destroyed:

nine helicopters of various modifications;
special equipment that was located at airfields;
air defense launcher;
ammunition warehouse;
airfield runways were damaged;
The ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated before 4 am.
The detonation in Luhansk lasted until 11 am.
Losses in the enemy's manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded.
Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1714226570410234239

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1714226570410234239

.. (https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1714226570410234239)

[NutLoose]

When I get my moped out on the road, i'm gonna ride..ride... ride.. or maybe not.

https://twitter.com/UkraineINtoucH/status/1714142006266442024

https://twitter.com/UkraineINtoucH/status/1714142006266442024

[NutLoose]

Russia's barriers they have placed across the harbour entrance at Sevastopol to defend the port.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x854/f8z02uowuaadydq_cb59ba3b4ac880ed1b44ba4a9c151722c0743614.jpg


https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1713185387638607982

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1713185387638607982

[NutLoose]

Russia ramping up defence forces for Crimea?

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1714206579577196894

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1714206579577196894

[NutLoose]

A good read:

Frontline report: Ukrainians use bad weather to advantage in attacks near Verbove, Zaporizhzhia OblastDespite rainy conditions, Ukraine struck Russian strongpoints around Verbove, combining artillery, rockets, airstrikes, and made ground advance, using Leopard tanks.
On 16 October, there were a lot of updates from the Tokmak direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
The most intense clashes took place around Verbove.
As you remember, previously, we saw a video showing how Ukrainian armoured fighting vehicles were entering the settlement, indicating that Ukrainians had a foothold in the northern part of the village.

The goal was to conduct a pincer movement onto the remnants of the Russian second defence line and then develop their offensive further.........


https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/17/frontline-report-ukrainians-use-bad-weather-to-advantage-in-attacks-near-verbove-zaporizhzhia-oblast/?swcfpc=1

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1714247539401060820?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


This is a real big deal if confirmed. We are looking at ATACMS M74 submunition (MGM-140), reportedly found at Berdyansk airport.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x1097/image_e912c472ab677e243f8532e3c6ab661b95aa2ddc.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Looks like the 9-10 helos taken out were KA-52s. They reportedly only had around 30 left, so that’s over 30% of the fleet gone in one attack…

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1090x542/image_a1c70c2fd93f2b4c6c0c3a8483a6f7b879707433.png

[Tartiflette Fan]

Looks like the 9-10 helos taken out were KA-52s. They reportedly only had around 30 left, so that’s over 30% of the fleet gone in one attack…

Let's hope that's true - at a minimum : they'll have to redeploy the rest to Alma Ata or somewhere to be safe :). Obviously a good chance that there will be lots of maintenance personnel and pilots amongst the other casualties.

[ORAC]

Video of the aftermath of the strike on Berdyansk…

https://x.com/tendar/status/1714268723757064528?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Russians attempting to crawl their way out of Avdiivka

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1714026565602877948?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1714286709654143332?s=20

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1714286709654143332?s=20

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20 (https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20)

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20 (https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20)

[fdr]

Another of Russia's target dates.



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713174964784824349


With the new date, the Ruzzians did not distinguish which border they were referring to, East, or West; they could be right.

[BlankBox]

Smoking...is a health hazard.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1702002883275661724

[Tartiflette Fan]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1714286709654143332?s=20



https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20 (https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714282883614122032?s=20)

Really good to see them using old munitions that might otherwise have had to be scrapped at major cost. Way, way better to blow up Ka-52 !!!! It does actually surprise me that explosives are still in-date after 26 years: what would be normal for HE ?

EDIT: All about ATACMS - 20 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3G8T1no8TI

[ORAC]

If it started out as a raid it might now be something more substantial - it seems to be moving fast…

https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1714393079732478142?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING‼️Rybar reports that Ukrainians have crossed on the left bank near the Antonovskiy Bridge

Unclear whether it is a raid or something more.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x914/image_0aa99bfae1e1268ab807d23dfc38148d06bf6c25.jpeg
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[NutLoose]

Damaged helicopters post strike, all though it only shows a few, remember two airfields were hit?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1714535992693047305

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1714535992693047305


https://twitter.com/jaanus/status/1714356283954872426

https://twitter.com/jaanus/status/1714356283954872426

.. (https://twitter.com/jaanus/status/1714356283954872426)


..

[Tartiflette Fan]

EDIT: All about ATACMS - 20 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3G8T1no8TI

Given that the Ka 52 has 450 km total operational range ( Wiki ), it seems that there is no base in occupied Ukriane that would allow them both to be safe from this ATACMS variant and also reach the FEBA. In order to be safe from Allied missiles (but not Ukrainian ) they would need to retreat to a base in Russia. On the sites I have visited, I cannot see any airfields closer than Rostov ( although I think that's unlikely ) however if it were, it would mean that the Ka 52 and Mi 28 would no longer be a factor in the battle around Robotyne due to insufficient range. Is this very happy state of affairs correct, or are there bases suitable for helicopters in Russia that are close enough to allow these helicopters to continue their attacks in the Tokmak area ? Even if the answer is yes, the time they spend in the area is substantially reduced.

[NutLoose]

I do love how the Ukrainians take it on the chin and fight on.

https://twitter.com/emirco6/status/1714270539009950206

https://twitter.com/emirco6/status/1714270539009950206

[NutLoose]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/612x408/f8qbmm_aeaao_ot_c61a5894f633f368ab057e23b77355322b15d56c.jpg

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1714641804698493367?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Ukraine 🇺🇦 launching 6 ATACMS missiles at one time from HIMARS

Ukraine has launched +11 ATACMS missiles in the past two days

[Tartiflette Fan]

Ukraine 🇺🇦 launching 6 ATACMS missiles at one time from HIMARS

Ukraine has launched +11 ATACMS missiles in the past two days

Well, it will be of great interest to see where those six land :} and how many hundreds of millions of Russian equipment burn in the aftemath !

[antheads]

Good to see the allies, especially the Yanks and the Polaks, joining the Ukrainians in hacking/combining and repurposing existing technology to meet the evolving needs of the the war. AIM-7/9s used as ground based AAD, existing ruski missile launchers modified to fire the western NASAMS. Brilliant stuff.

The U.S. military has already been known to be facilitating the integration of older AIM-7 Sparrow/RIM-7 Sea Sparrow (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sea-sparrow-rim-7-surface-to-air-missiles-are-headed-to-ukraine) radar-guided missiles onto Ukraine's existing Soviet-era Buk surface-to-air missile (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44673/ukraine-needs-ground-based-air-defenses-way-more-than-migs-here-are-the-best-options) systems. This work, which AP has reported is also part of the FrankenSAM project, could offer some broad insight into what the final AIM-9M-based system might look like.

Defense24 in Poland previously raised the idea (https://defence24.com/industry/modernized-osa-sam-for-ukraine-ad-hoc-gap-filler-needed) of combining Soviet-designed Osa air defense vehicles, which Ukraine also already has in service (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44673/ukraine-needs-ground-based-air-defenses-way-more-than-migs-here-are-the-best-options), with AIM-9s. Polish defense contractor PGZ has pitched a modified Osa capable of firing the IRIS-T heat-seeking missile in the past and actually made significant progress in developing a prototype.

There have been reports in the past that the U.S. military has been digging into its own secretive stocks of Soviet-designed air defense systems to find things that might be useful (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44859/secretive-american-stocks-of-soviet-air-defense-systems-are-headed-to-ukraine-report) to Ukraine. These items were acquired as part of so-called Foreign Materiel Exploitation (FME) efforts, which involve deep intelligence analysis and testing and evaluation of non-U.S. weapon systems and other military equipment, as you can read more about here (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/aliens-or-not-secret-crash-retrieval-programs-are-a-very-real-thing).

Beyond just helping to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities and capacity, combining old Soviet-era air defense systems with Western missiles offers important logistical benefits. Ukrainian stocks of the missiles those systems were designed originally to fire are dwindling (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-could-happen-if-ukraines-stocks-of-soviet-sams-runs-dry), but there are large stockpiles of AIM-7/RIM-7s and AIM-9Ms in the United States and other NATO countries. U.S. and NATO military forces are also steadily phasing out these older missiles, making them more readily available for transfer.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-frankensam-to-speed-delivery-of-air-defenses

It's all about innovation and making the best of what is available on the table right now.

Also thousands of former computer gamers on both sides with VR headsets flying killer FPV drones.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Good to see the allies, especially the Yanks and the Polaks, joining the Ukrainians in hacking/combining and repurposing existing technology to meet the evolving needs of the the war. AIM-7/9s used as AAD, existing ruski missile launchers modified to fire the western NASAMS. Brilliant stuff.







https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-frankensam-to-speed-delivery-of-air-defenses

It's all about innovation and making the best of what is available on the table right now.

Also thousands of former computer gamers on both sides with VR headsets flying killer FPV drones.

What is this ? Have your handlers in St Petersburg suddenly started taking LSD ?

[Lonewolf_50]

It's all about innovation and making the best of what is available on the table right now. Adapt, persevere, overcome.
Also thousands of former computer gamers on both sides with VR headsets flying killer FPV drones. Welcome to 21st century warfare.

[NutLoose]

Indeed, Israeli tanks and Indian ones have started sprouting cope cages, such is the current 21st century warfare state of play and the effects of learning from the experiences of 21st warfare in Ukraine.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tendar/status/1714719953247473971?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Satellite pictures distributed by Radio Svoboda (from Planet Labs) show substantial damage of Russian hardware in the Berdyansk airfield caused by ATACMS the day before.

According to my initial assessment I see 6 totally destroyed choppers (red), 2 more at least heavily damaged (yellow) and one could be damaged as well (purple). There are scorch marks all over the place, especially in the north eastern parts and especially in fields. I assume that this was the ammunition or support equipment on the ground.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x720/image_6ae403bf9c396dd5ebcd98477cdb80a29902e6dc.jpeg
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[havoc]

What should Ukrainians expect after Putin's statement on Russian MiGs over Black Sea? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-should-ukrainians-expect-after-putin-s-statement-on-russian-migs-over-black-sea/ar-AA1irF8g?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6cad71696e374634a1451e00c7738e93&ei=37)If Russia deploys MiG-31 fighter jets armed with Kinzhal missiles for patrolling the airspace over the Black Sea, the threat level in Ukraine is expected to rise, causing more air raid alarms, according to military expert Colonel Vladyslav Seleznov.

"How does the warning system work? As soon as a MiG carrying Kinzhals takes to the skies, air raid sirens start going off across the entire territory of Ukraine. Of course, there will be more of them, but the alerts work the same way, as soon as the enemy launches their aircraft from the Kursk or Bryansk regions," Seleznov explained.

However, according to the expert, if these aircraft were to be stationed in Crimea, it could lead to Ukrainian forces engaging with drones and missiles to target these jets. Accessing Crimea is possible, and the use of ATACMS with cluster munitions could indicate that we can reach the MiGs as well, ultimately rendering them as piles of scrap metal.

"I am confident that the General Staff is considering all options, including the destruction of MiGs at their bases because we must understand that supersonic aircraft are heavily dependent on their bases," Seleznov added.

He explained that if MiGs are used over the Black Sea waters, they must be stationed within Crimea, which is our territory.

"I believe our partisans will work on making it hard both for Russian technical personnel and the pilots because there's no room for enemy aircraft, especially MiGs, on our country's territory," he concluded.

Putin's statement

Following a series of Ukrainian military operations in the Black Sea, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that Russian MiG-31K fighter jets would patrol the skies over the Black Sea.

At the same time, aviation expert and former Antonov Design Bureau testing engineer Kostiantyn Kryvolap told RBC-Ukraine that Putin's claims regarding patrol are only meant to intimidate. The Ukrainian Navy shares a similar perspective.

[NutLoose]

Russia has transferred combat dolphins to Sevastopol to protect against divers.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1714761539192779260

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1714761539192779260

[fdr]

NutLoose;11523560]Russia has transferred combat dolphins to Sevastopol to protect against divers


What's the probability that some naval cook is going to dump chum off the aft deck of one of Ruzzia's shiny frigates....

Wile E. Coyote moment pending.

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-edges-closer-to-sending-gripen-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

Sweden edges closer to sending Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine

[Tartiflette Fan]

What's the probability that some naval cook is going to dump chum off the aft deck of one of Ruzzia's shiny frigates....

Wile E. Coyote moment pending.

The Russkis may not build things too well, but I don't think a dolphin head-butting even one of their ships would be too great a problem. Probably also unusual that there would be any food left to throw overboard.

Very good news from Berdyansk and the Dnipro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w952CCyU4QY 5 mins long

[NutLoose]

How dumb can you be? The mines are not even buried and you can see the rows, but on they come like Lemmings to a cliff.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714944387199758409

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714944387199758409

[NutLoose]

Russian Stupidity...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714932721288438084

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714932721288438084

https://twitter.com/Reevesity/status/1714928381567844377

https://twitter.com/Reevesity/status/1714928381567844377

And after each breach comes the remote miner to restore the line

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714958847947776199

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714958847947776199

. (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714958847947776199)

[NutLoose]

Another SU-25 downed, that's 5 in 10 days.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1714919028345491894

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1714919028345491894

[NutLoose]

Recovery of a Ukrainian T72M, hit a mine?

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1713970200410726426

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1713970200410726426

[NutLoose]

A count of those Russian vehicles destroyed or disabled around Avdiivka

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714965372359553474

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714965372359553474

[NutLoose]

One seriously brave Ukrainian soldier.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714923120081956945

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714923120081956945

[NutLoose]

More analysis of the damage following the strike on Luhansk airport by ATACMS

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714913724765442306

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1714913724765442306

[NutLoose]

How Ironic.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1710255562737221774

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1710255562737221774

[Ninthace]

How Ironic.



https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1710255562737221774
It looks like India did not fare so well either!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/trenttelenko/status/1714701731148251161?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


I've been pounding on the theme of the attrition of the Russian truck fleet for sometime in many text threads.

Let's try a short visual one to calibrate your eyes….

Russian truck logistics 🧵

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714701731148251161.html
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[ORAC]

Russia down to having to make light mortars out of light steel tubing….

https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1715032076502581575?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
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[NutLoose]

Don’t knock them, cheap, easy to produce by the thousands and probably wildly inaccurate, but needs must and they look easily portable and could be the difference between being over run or surviving.

[Winemaker]

Russia down to having to make light mortars out of light steel tubing….
My 3" gunpowder mortar that could fire a one pound can of baked beans a quarter mile was more sophisticated than that. What a poor design, useful only in launching explosives that you know not where they will go; 'Hitting' the same target, or even near it, will be impossible.

[fdr]

Russia down to having to make light mortars out of light steel tubing….
Russia is a superpower, most powerful military in Asia, most powerful military in Ukraine, most powerful military in Crimea, most powerful military in st Basil's church grounds. Slightly weaker than Djibouti.