Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[ORAC]

https://x.com/rtperson3/status/1732049387277148405?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Crimean Bridge is the key to unlocking Ukraine's victory, but destroying it is harder than you might realize. @general_ben and I joined two West Point engineering profs to analyze the challenges Ukraine faces in disabling it permanently 🧵1/​​​​​​​

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins-weak-link-crimea

[Tartiflette Fan]

The Crimean Bridge is the key to unlocking Ukraine's victory, but destroying it is harder than you might realize. @general_ben and I joined two West Point engineering profs to analyze the challenges Ukraine faces in disabling it permanently 🧵1/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins-weak-link-crimea
Why is it not vulnerable to Storm Shadow ? I beleve it has the range and the warhead is designed to destroy deep bunkers, so some simlarity to bridge supports.

[ExAvioncs]

Loan the Ukrainians a B2/21 , electronics warfare support and a few GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator or make a few Barnes Wallace Grand Slam....

[GeeRam]

Why is it not vulnerable to Storm Shadow ? I beleve it has the range and the warhead is designed to destroy deep bunkers, so some simlarity to bridge supports.

SS isn't powerful enough. You'd need a mass coordinated strike by multiple SS hitting simutaneously at the bearing points......and the chances of it working are still not great.

The only way that bridge is going to be put out of long term action is a good old fashioned sapper dems team rigging it with a LOT of explosives.....especially under the end bearings to lift the span off the bearings and drop it.

And we haven't got enough airworthy Lancs with Grand Slams to attempt a Bielefeld Viaduct type dropping.

[Tartiflette Fan]

]SS isn't powerful enough. You'd need a mass coordinated strike by multiple SS hitting simutaneously at the bearing points......and the chances of it working are still not great.

The only way that bridge is going to be put out of long term action is a good old fashioned sapper dems team rigging it with a LOT of explosives.....especially under the end bearings to lift the span off the bearings and drop it.

And we haven't got enough airworthy Lancs with Grand Slams to attempt a Bielefeld Viaduct type dropping.


450 KG of concentrated explosive designed for deep penetration not sufficient ?

[GeeRam]

450 KG of concentrated explosive designed for deep penetration not sufficient ?

Nope.

Not to say you couldn't get lucky, but, a single SS isn't going to drop that span in a month of sundays.

And even dropping the span without destroying the supports won't put it out of action for good.

[Lonewolf_50]

Sorry, but I don't understand your point, can you expand a bit?
Who is going to stick around to defend their own country if, without invasion, they are already leaving for elsewhere?
Maybe the Russians can just wait them out ... :p

That you don't understand doesn't surprise me. This is the military forum, and some of us understand manpower issues.
I have also been asking for the past year, or so, how Ukraine can prevail if they have already lost about 8 million of their population to fleeing.
Go and look at how many people lived in Ukraine in January of 2022. Now run the sums, and see what percentage of their population are no longer there.
That is above and beyond the losses accrued due to Russian actions since the invasion started.

Yeah, 8 million. That's how many displaced/refugees from Ukraine are already somewhere else.
And that's about four times the population of Latvia, who has not (yet) been invaded.

ORAC and treadigraph have answered my question (and I suspected that brain drain was the issue at hand).

[ORAC]

The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a Russian Su-24M in the area of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.

The SU-24M was attempting to launch a missile attack on Odesa.

[GlobalNav]

The Crimean Bridge is the key to unlocking Ukraine's victory, but destroying it is harder than you might realize. @general_ben and I joined two West Point engineering profs to analyze the challenges Ukraine faces in disabling it permanently 🧵1/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins-weak-link-crimea

Is it not sufficient to keep doing what they have been doing? Enough harassment to interrupt significant use?

[mangere1957]

The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a Russian Su-24M in the area of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.

The SU-24M was attempting to launch a missile attack on Odesa.

Thanks. Any more details/information/confirmation from other sources?

[Stitchbitch]

Thanks. Any more details/information/confirmation from other sources?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-24-shot-down-over-black-sea-points-to-tactical-shift

[NutLoose]

All my local Vicar does is rattle a tin under your nose LOL.

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1732295934346674536

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1732295934346674536

[NutLoose]

Russian ground based supply drones at work

https://twitter.com/tungphat1/status/1731317076927955077

https://twitter.com/tungphat1/status/1731317076927955077

. (https://twitter.com/tungphat1/status/1731317076927955077)

[ORAC]

https://conservativehome.com/2023/12/06/daniel-hannan-if-we-dont-see-ukraine-through-to-victory-it-risks-turning-into-our-next-suez/

Daniel Hannan: If we don’t see Ukraine through to victory, this war risks turning into our next Suez

This is not the first time a conflict in Gaza has distracted us from Russian revanchism.

“The bitter division in public opinion provoked by the British intervention in the Middle East has already had one disastrous consequence,” wrote Malcom Muggeridge in 1956 after the start of the Suez war – a war fought as much in Gaza as Sinai. “It has deflected popular attention from the far more important struggle in Hungary.”

Ukrainians fear that the horrors in Gaza and Israel are hogging the attention their Western backers. Some suspect that Vladimir Putin and his Iranian allies encouraged the Hamas atrocities precisely to open a second front against the democracies.

I fret that defeat in Ukraine – and anything that allows Putin to keep his gains is a defeat, not just for Ukraine but for the post-1945 world order – would be a Suez moment for the West.

We made the decision to arm Ukraine; if it loses, we lose. As our global reputation gives ground, so will the ideas associated with our civilization: personal autonomy, private property, impartial courts, regular elections, limited government, human rights.

Suez, remember, was a military victory. British, French, and Israeli troops were making huge gains when they were ordered to stop. Our Paras had seized the airfield at El Gamil, while their French counterparts had taken Port Fuad. The Royal Marines had carried out a successful amphibious landing, and allied tanks were streaming south, mopping up what little Egyptian opposition they encountered.

We were defeated by international pressure, not local resistance. In a decision that he came to regret more than any other, Dwight Eisenhower demanded a ceasefire. With British commentators fulminating against the invasion, the Labour Party in uproar, and the rest of the world cheering Nasser as an anti-colonialist hero, Anthony Eden backed down.

“I cannot understand why our troops were halted”, declared an incredulous Winston Churchill. “To go so far and not go on was madness”.

Britain’s prestige never recovered. The country that had very recently dominated a unipolar world, and that was still seen, in 1956, as a great power, ranking alongside the United States and the Soviet Union, became a busted flush. Pro-British regimes, especially in friendly Arab nations such as Iraq, were toppled. Nasserism and related viral strains, including Ba’athism, spread across the region.

Many of our allies had been in the British camp, not because they cared about Magna Carta, nor yet because they were sending their sons to Harrow and Sandhurst, but because, as Osama bin Laden was later to put it, they preferred a strong horse to a weak horse.

How spavined the Western horse will look if the lines in Ukraine freeze close to their present positions. Hedging neutrals will conclude that Nato, with all its allies and auxiliaries, all its technological and economic advantages, cannot achieve the minimal aim of restoring recognised international borders.

I was optimistic when the counter-offensive began. I expected Ukrainian troops to reach the Sea of Azov, cut Putin’s land bridge to Crimea, and kettle the Russian garrison there. That would have prompted talks on restoring Ukrainian sovereignty. Sure, there would be give and take, greater autonomy for the eastern oblasts, perhaps a referendum in Crimea under international supervision; but the basic principle would have been upheld that aggression is not rewarded.

But the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed – or, as Volodomyr Zelensky puts it, “has not achieved its desired results”. Ukraine made minor gains in the south, but the initiative has now swung back to Russia, which is again striking at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and has loosed an unprecedented number of drones.

It is still possible that Ukraine will break through. But Putin’s strategy of holding out until Donald Trump or another anti-war Republican is elected, and then imposing a peace based on what the negotiators will call “facts on the ground”, is looking a lot more plausible now than three months ago.

Let’s not pretend that such an outcome would simply amount to an local failure on distant steppes. It would be Suez times ten, a moment when the West collectively was too weak to save an ally.

We can already see what happens when rogue states sense that the policeman is no longer on his beat. But never mind hostile countries like Iran and North Korea. Consider the behaviour of states which we thought were on our side.

India and Israel are democracies that might have been expected to denounce Putin’s unprovoked war. Both instead chose to break with the West and remain neutral. Both have since shown that they don’t care what the White House thinks. Israel has brushed off pleas to alter its campaign methods in Gaza, while India seems to have gone as far as to order the assassination of a Canadian citizen.

Would a Ukrainian breakthrough shore up our authority? Yes, a bit, at least for a while. It would make Taiwan safer, draw Delhi back into the fold and concentrate minds in those autocracies that see the eclipse of the West as an opportunity to settle local scores (Venezuela’s claim on Guyana being the latest example).

More than this, victory in Ukraine would open the door to a post-Putin Russia, and an end to the disruption that has been pouring out of the Kremlin for years, whether in the form of online propaganda designed to undermine the legitimacy of Western institutions or in the form of raw Wagner power.

Is the problem, as Ukrainians sometimes complain, that Western leaders don’t really want Putin to lose – or, more precisely, that they prefer an orderly transfer of power in Russia to the chaos of a total defeat? Or are they being lackadaisical, sending too little too late?

Or are we in some sort of ghastly 1915 situation, where military technology is so tilted in favour of the defender that the only way to win us to grind the enemy down through years of attrition?

Because we probably don’t have years. In less than 12 months, Trump, with his weird adulation for Putin, could be back in the White House. The West would be seen, like Britain at Suez, to have given up for want of resolve. Other countries would draw their own conclusions. The world would become altogether darker and colder.

[NutLoose]

Is it not sufficient to keep doing what they have been doing? Enough harassment to interrupt significant use?

I agree, hit a span with a Storm shadow or the like, then hit the other span, and when they are repairing it, hit it again and again, taking out the adjacent span and repair teams, just like the bridge at Kherson they will soon tire of trying to repair it.

[NutLoose]

It looks like a Ukrainian hit using the M30A1 rocket. The secret of the M30A1 lies in a huge number of tungsten BBs arranged around an explosive core – about 182,000 of them.

Lots of dead people, be warned, quote link only

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1732270367589478584

[NutLoose]

You just have to feel sorry for the poor guy.

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731578506419847449

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731578506419847449

[NutLoose]

Russian Army's New Tactic: Infrared Stealth ``Early in the morning, there was an attack on the defenses of the 72nd brigade.The enemy was divided into two groups, one rushing straight into the green area, and the other hiding in this cocoon and flanking along the fields. The weather was too bad for drones to fly.” "It didn't show up on the infrared sensor! Be careful! Be careful not only of drones but also of infantry!"

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731324652293931294

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731324652293931294

[NutLoose]

So much for wearing a tabbard...
That's a few less to worry about..

Russian soldiers run over and kill many Russian soldiers in Kamchatka, Russia What were you doing on the frozen road?

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731090920379216329

https://twitter.com/qHZ4aaZxWd32422/status/1731090920379216329

[NutLoose]

More smokers in Russia.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732161140174508049

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732161140174508049

[NutLoose]

Some serious targets taken out overnight. As said in another thread, beware of the UFO's Ukrainian Flying Objects :E

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1732066043391099349

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1732066043391099349

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC, that's an interesting commentary (I probably need to find some old articles discussing why Ike made that decision at the time) and an interesting comparison to how one responds to aggression (with the Hungary bit a good reminder of how the spotlight moves).

Insofar as it pertains to matters military, there are finite resources and multiple places to apply them (or not apply them). And all of those resources seem to be victims of the draw downs of the past decade or more.
EDIT: As to Ike's choices, Interesting analysis is here (https://www.thetower.org/article/we-are-still-living-with-eisenhowers-biggest-mistake-suez-egypt-israel-ikes-gamble-michael-doran/)

[NutLoose]

Bastards.................................................... ......................... :mad:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730928387458289687

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730928387458289687

[NutLoose]

Says it all.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1731330029613637745

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1731330029613637745

[NutLoose]

That is impressive

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732386322814263424

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732386322814263424

[212man]

That is impressive



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732386322814263424
It's gone a bit dusty here.....

[GlobalNav]

https://conservativehome.com/2023/12/06/daniel-hannan-if-we-dont-see-ukraine-through-to-victory-it-risks-turning-into-our-next-suez/

Daniel Hannan: If we don’t see Ukraine through to victory, this war risks turning into our next Suez

This is not the first time a conflict in Gaza has distracted us from Russian revanchism.

“The bitter division in public opinion provoked by the British intervention in the Middle East has already had one disastrous consequence,” wrote Malcom Muggeridge in 1956 after the start of the Suez war – a war fought as much in Gaza as Sinai. “It has deflected popular attention from the far more important struggle in Hungary.”

Ukrainians fear that the horrors in Gaza and Israel are hogging the attention their Western backers. Some suspect that Vladimir Putin and his Iranian allies encouraged the Hamas atrocities precisely to open a second front against the democracies.

I fret that defeat in Ukraine – and anything that allows Putin to keep his gains is a defeat, not just for Ukraine but for the post-1945 world order – would be a Suez moment for the West.

We made the decision to arm Ukraine; if it loses, we lose. As our global reputation gives ground, so will the ideas associated with our civilization: personal autonomy, private property, impartial courts, regular elections, limited government, human rights.

Suez, remember, was a military victory. British, French, and Israeli troops were making huge gains when they were ordered to stop. Our Paras had seized the airfield at El Gamil, while their French counterparts had taken Port Fuad. The Royal Marines had carried out a successful amphibious landing, and allied tanks were streaming south, mopping up what little Egyptian opposition they encountered.

We were defeated by international pressure, not local resistance. In a decision that he came to regret more than any other, Dwight Eisenhower demanded a ceasefire. With British commentators fulminating against the invasion, the Labour Party in uproar, and the rest of the world cheering Nasser as an anti-colonialist hero, Anthony Eden backed down.

“I cannot understand why our troops were halted”, declared an incredulous Winston Churchill. “To go so far and not go on was madness”.

Britain’s prestige never recovered. The country that had very recently dominated a unipolar world, and that was still seen, in 1956, as a great power, ranking alongside the United States and the Soviet Union, became a busted flush. Pro-British regimes, especially in friendly Arab nations such as Iraq, were toppled. Nasserism and related viral strains, including Ba’athism, spread across the region.

Many of our allies had been in the British camp, not because they cared about Magna Carta, nor yet because they were sending their sons to Harrow and Sandhurst, but because, as Osama bin Laden was later to put it, they preferred a strong horse to a weak horse.

How spavined the Western horse will look if the lines in Ukraine freeze close to their present positions. Hedging neutrals will conclude that Nato, with all its allies and auxiliaries, all its technological and economic advantages, cannot achieve the minimal aim of restoring recognised international borders.

I was optimistic when the counter-offensive began. I expected Ukrainian troops to reach the Sea of Azov, cut Putin’s land bridge to Crimea, and kettle the Russian garrison there. That would have prompted talks on restoring Ukrainian sovereignty. Sure, there would be give and take, greater autonomy for the eastern oblasts, perhaps a referendum in Crimea under international supervision; but the basic principle would have been upheld that aggression is not rewarded.

But the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed – or, as Volodomyr Zelensky puts it, “has not achieved its desired results”. Ukraine made minor gains in the south, but the initiative has now swung back to Russia, which is again striking at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and has loosed an unprecedented number of drones.

It is still possible that Ukraine will break through. But Putin’s strategy of holding out until Donald Trump or another anti-war Republican is elected, and then imposing a peace based on what the negotiators will call “facts on the ground”, is looking a lot more plausible now than three months ago.

Let’s not pretend that such an outcome would simply amount to an local failure on distant steppes. It would be Suez times ten, a moment when the West collectively was too weak to save an ally.

We can already see what happens when rogue states sense that the policeman is no longer on his beat. But never mind hostile countries like Iran and North Korea. Consider the behaviour of states which we thought were on our side.

India and Israel are democracies that might have been expected to denounce Putin’s unprovoked war. Both instead chose to break with the West and remain neutral. Both have since shown that they don’t care what the White House thinks. Israel has brushed off pleas to alter its campaign methods in Gaza, while India seems to have gone as far as to order the assassination of a Canadian citizen.

Would a Ukrainian breakthrough shore up our authority? Yes, a bit, at least for a while. It would make Taiwan safer, draw Delhi back into the fold and concentrate minds in those autocracies that see the eclipse of the West as an opportunity to settle local scores (Venezuela’s claim on Guyana being the latest example).

More than this, victory in Ukraine would open the door to a post-Putin Russia, and an end to the disruption that has been pouring out of the Kremlin for years, whether in the form of online propaganda designed to undermine the legitimacy of Western institutions or in the form of raw Wagner power.

Is the problem, as Ukrainians sometimes complain, that Western leaders don’t really want Putin to lose – or, more precisely, that they prefer an orderly transfer of power in Russia to the chaos of a total defeat? Or are they being lackadaisical, sending too little too late?

Or are we in some sort of ghastly 1915 situation, where military technology is so tilted in favour of the defender that the only way to win us to grind the enemy down through years of attrition?

Because we probably don’t have years. In less than 12 months, Trump, with his weird adulation for Putin, could be back in the White House. The West would be seen, like Britain at Suez, to have given up for want of resolve. Other countries would draw their own conclusions. The world would become altogether darker and colder.

To say that the UKR counteroffensive has failed seems extreme, considering that the ability to conduct one at all is heroic. Granted, we all, and UKR govt, hope for more progress and the resources to realize it. I'm appalled by the many idiots in Washington who play games with UKR support for the sake of political points and fear what it portends if the man from Miami gets reelected. This conflict is existential not only for Ukraine but for all freedom loving nations. The criminal aggression from Russia needs to be put down decisively and we, US especially, need to provide more capable armaments quickly. May God bless Ukraine.

[DogTailRed2]

That is impressive



https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732386322814263424
To be honest I find that memorial a bit creepy, inappropriate? Perhaps a bronze statue of the man in happier times would have been more appropriate?

[Beamr]

Ukrainians worked their way round the road transport blockade. Well done.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732487270630895840

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732487270630895840

[tdracer]

I agree, hit a span with a Storm shadow or the like, then hit the other span, and when they are repairing it, hit it again and again, taking out the adjacent span and repair teams, just like the bridge at Kherson they will soon tire of trying to repair it.
True such strikes can keep the usefulness of the bridge down for extended periods, they are all 'temporary' interruptions and long-range planning often doesn't take those into account.
Drop the span in such a way that it'll take years to repair, and it forces the Ruskies to rethink their entire strategy.

[jolihokistix]

A stalemate here means that Russia has finally met an immovable object. Ukraine has actually stopped the mighty momentum of Vlad's invasion forces along a huge 600-mile front.

Russia has in the meantime had plenty of time to lay millions of mines on stolen and plundered land, for the pleasure of future generations.

[MechEngr]

One hope with all those mines is that thermal imaging has become cheap and because of thermal lag due to the difference in the ability of the mines and surrounding dirt to heat and cool, one can much more easily spot the mines in bulk rather than the tedious process of using metal detectors or mine sniffing dogs or rats. This detection should apply to majority plastic mines as they will insulate the soil above them allowing the soil to heat and cool more rapidly, while metal mines will act to delay heating and cooling. A commercial use of this has been looking for places where asphalt overlays have become debonded from concrete structures such as in the paving on top of bridges as well as finding cracks and voids.

Ground penetrating radar has also become cheap, but it requires closer proximity to the mines and, because it is using a far longer wavelength, is less able to tell the exact shape of the item, though it can see much deeper into the soil.

Also a big help is cheap computation ability - farmers can up-armor tractors with plows and let them run remotely or semi-autonomously to dig up whatever metal might be out in the fields with little risk to people.

The big question is for booby traps left in residential and industrial areas where none of these are particularly effective. Russian troops are already at low morale and they seem more angry at their commanders than at Ukraine and I hope that it makes for a general inclination to either disobey an order to booby trap or to make them ineffective or obvious.

Were I to press hard on this war I'd be looking at dropping as much fentanyl onto Russian positions and behind their front lines as I could. It's not as if the US doesn't intercept enough to do the job, might as well put it to a better use. Foil packets with a dozen pills each, dropped from drones. Addiction or overdose; don't care at this point. The Russians can pick up some going forward or retreating. For extra points use degradable plastic to expose the pills to the environment in a 3-6 month period out in the open.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2023/12/06/ukraine-aid-in-peril-as-senate-republicans-walk-out-of-heated-briefing/

Ukraine aid in peril as Senate Republicans walk out of heated briefing

WASHINGTON ― Republican Sens. Deb Fischer and Mitt Romney walked side by side Tuesday as they hastily left the Biden administration’s classified briefing on a massive defense spending package that includes Ukraine and Israel aid, both visibly agitated.

Fischer of Nebraska and Romney of Utah were among numerous Republicans to exit the briefing early. By their account, administration officials did not provide answers to their questions on Ukraine beyond what’s publicly available in unclassified public reports, compounding their frustration with Democrats for refusing to meet their demands for immigration policy changes in the legislation.

The unrelated partisan fight over immigration policy threatens to derail the roughly $113 billion package that also includes funding for the U.S. southern border and Indo-Pacific security partners, all while the Biden administration rapidly runs out of the little remaining Ukraine aid. It raises serious questions about whether Congress will continue providing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion despite previous Senate Republican support for a a bipartisan defense supplemental package.….

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-republicans-reject-new-funds-for-ukraine-amid-biden-border-row-zznf9gsfb

US Republicans reject new funds for Ukraine amid Biden border row

Republicans ignored an appeal from President Biden to stop “playing chicken” with the war in Ukraine as they voted against a fresh spending package for Kyiv.

The party’s senators rejected a $106 billion funding bill, including $61 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel, because it did not contain sweeping immigration reforms they want to balance foreign aid with domestic security. The vote on Wednesday night sent negotiators from both parties back to the drawing board, with Biden warning US funding for Ukraine would run out by the end of the year.

Biden had earlier said that American soldiers could be dragged into a war against Russia unless Republicans agreed to the new funding. He conceded that the US immigration system was “broken” in the face of record arrests of migrants but said that failing to reach an agreement before American cash for Kyiv runs out at the end of the year would “kneecap” Ukraine.

“This cannot wait,” Biden said in a hastily arranged White House address ahead of voting in the Senate. “Frankly, I think it’s stunning that we’ve gotten to this point in the first place — Republicans in Congress that are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for and abandon our global leadership, not just in Ukraine, but beyond that,” he said.

“If Putin takes Ukraine he won’t stop there. It’s important to see the long run here. He’s going to keep going … we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops.”

This would be inevitable if Russia went on to attack a Nato country, he said, given the alliance’s commitment to common defence. He added: “Make no mistake, today’s vote is going to be long remembered. History is going to judge harshly those who turned their back on freedom’s cause. We can’t let Putin win”…..

[ramble on]

I put this here as a testimonial to one mans bravery.

The Dentist.

A volunteer from Sri Lanka in Ukraine who died at the front trying to recover and evacuate comrades.

https://mawratanews.lk/news/three-ex-sri-lanka-army-personnel-including-captain-ranish-hevage-were-killed-in-a-russian-attack-on-the-ukrainian-battlefield-fighting-on-the-ukrainian-front-since-2022-i-sri-lanka-latest-news/?amp=1

[NutLoose]

Leopards arriving in Poland for repair.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732690555715416300

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732690555715416300

[NutLoose]

Another Ukrainian traitor living in Russia appears to have suffered from acute blood loss.

The body of Ilya Kiva was found lying in a pool of blood in the park area of ​​the hotel "Velich'Country Club" in the village of Suponevo, Odintsovo district of Moscow - Mash. Information about his death was also confirmed by Kremlin media.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732421389016273101

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732421389016273101

[NutLoose]

Ukraines wish come want list has just got mind blowing... I suppose if you do not ask, you do not get.

WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Ukraine's latest list of U.S. weapons it says it needs to fight the Russian military includes sophisticated air defense systems, F-18 "Hornet" fighter jets, drones, Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, according to documents seen by Reuters.

Officials from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense presented a "list of armaments to meet the needs of defense forces of Ukraine" during a closed-door session of a conference in Washington (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukrainian-leaders-seek-expansion-arms-production-2023-12-06/) on Wednesday attended by government officials and defense industry executives.

The comprehensive list included weapons Ukraine already has in stock like Abrams tanks and 155 millimeter artillery, as well some weaponry such as F-16s, drones and long-range ATACMS missiles that it has asked for in the past.

But the list has a few surprises including big-ticket items like C-17 Globemaster transport jets made by Boeing (BA.N) (https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/BA.N) and the C-130 Super Hercules made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) (https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/LMT.N). Boeing's Apache attack helicopters made the list, as did the Black Hawk helicopter made by Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky unit.

But the Ukrainians did not stop there. The documents show Ukraine is also seeking F-18 "Hornet" fighter jets, three types of drones made by General Atomics including the MQ-9B Sky Guardian and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense system made by Lockheed.

Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on the fight.

Legislation that would provide billions of dollars in new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel was blocked in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-sets-test-vote-ukraine-aid-despite-republican-opposition-2023-12-06/) as Republicans pressed their demands for tougher measures to control immigration at the U.S. border with Mexico.

U.S. President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign-policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024.

Ukraine's list reflects what would easily be billions of dollars' worth of purchases or donations of weapons.

The Ukrainian embassy in Washington did not immediately return a request for comment.





https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-latest-weapons-request-includes-thaad-air-defenses-f-18s-2023-12-06/

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian Vampire delivery date set

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732744919217737983

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732744919217737983

[NutLoose]

Donetsk fuel farm hit the other day.

Donetsk, in addition to the arrival of a warehouse with fuel and lubricant materials, there was also a successful hit by an AGM-88 HARM on air defense/radar.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732721848993894551

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1732721848993894551

[NutLoose]

Grumblings in Russia over the time served on the frontline etc

"Hello. My name is __, I'm currently serving in military unit 122__ and I'm writing on behalf of a group of Russian military personnel. We hope that we will be able to stop the bad trend while we still have the opportunity.

Two days ago, the deputy political officer gathered the personnel and informed us verbally that our wives and mothers should not dare take part in any rallies to bring us home.

Moreover, they said that the FSB would monitor who was in the "protest groups" on social networks, and if they find anyone, there would be problems for both our family and for us.

So, our women and us, on the front lines in the trenches and mud, are being threatened by some office staff rats.

All our guys were very indignant at the order, and the political officer said that he did not like it either, but there was an order to inform everyone and warn us of our responsibility.

However, they did not force us to sign any papers, as would usually happen in such cases. Apparently, they are afraid that we will take pictures and share them with you and journalists.

The situation is absurd because we are all really fed up already and want to understand when we will come home, our wives also want to finally live normally as a full family and not wait for a funeral from one day to the next.

How are we and our wives worse than the cops and FSB officers? We do not see anything criminal in this (wives protesting), to return home is our only goal.

All this nonsense about the "hand of the CIA," CIPsO (Ukraine’s Special Forces Center for Information & Psychological Operations) and so on, the especially gifted can shove it up their asses, pardon my poor language.

Let them come here and tell us to our faces that our relatives are agents of the West, I would like to see it. I have honor."

“Yesterday we were informed about new measures, they said that wives who go to rallies will be detained and fined, for petitions and activity in social networks there will be a charge of discreditation (of the Russian army).

We, contract servicemen, were threatened that husbands of especially active women would end up in the Storm detachment (penal unit). We are now in the Kherson direction, where it's hot (heavy fighting), so it's a one-way ticket.

I don't know what to do with all this, I really want to go home, **** all this. If they take our wives, it's scary to imagine how it could end, we won't tolerate it.”

Recognizing the severity of the problem, the Kremlin fascists are trying to mitigate the situation by bribing military spouses not to protest.

Putin may find himself in a true conundrum - they can’t continue to bribe the spouses not to protest, nor can they risk arresting the military spouses.

Since there are over 400,000 families in Russia whose men are occupying Ukraine, this problem could turn into a catalyst of significant domestic developments in Russia.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1731432976469385235

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1731432976469385235

[NutLoose]

They are looking at extending the Neptune payload and adding 100Km to the range

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1731781511408493030

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1731781511408493030

[Wokkafans]

Usual caveats:

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1732768653169299593?s=20


https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1732768653169299593?s=20

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1732772023955341743?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


While public attention was on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyans'k, russians set up secret helicopter bases and FARPs in various locations.

This was initially exclusive to paid subscribers, but I am now releasing it, especially in light of the recent SBU strike in the region.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1732772023955341743.html

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1523x1079/image_8644fdb77996e1c9223798aec47aece26b1de450.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1732793180158931330?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian media report that the Elektrozavod factory is on fire in Moscow.

It is Russia's largest manufacturer of transformer and reactor equipment.

[Saab Dastard]

A reminder to all that this thread is about reporting the actual war in Ukraine, politics goes in the JB thread here: https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/644762-russia-ukraine-possible-unpleasantries.html

[NutLoose]

I wonder what cell she is in tonight?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1732734333415309542

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1732734333415309542

[Lonewolf_50]

I respect those ladies for speaking up.

[NutLoose]

Psy ops…… Erm that’s different.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1732893748374470855

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1732893748374470855


.. (https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1732893748374470855)

[GlobalNav]

I respect those ladies for speaking up.
They have larger cajones than most of the male population

[ORAC]

Looks like the Russian route is more dangerous than the Med route….

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1732784300955725926?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Russian authorities are recruiting migrants who are trying to get from Russia to Finland, for the war against Ukraine, the BBC writes.

Russian authorities have started detaining and recruiting foreigners with expired Russian visas for the war against Ukraine who are trying to get from Russia to Finland.

Journalists noticed that in mid-November, the police began to massively detain those who had violated migration laws. These detentions took place during the same period as the first two waves of border crossing closures in southeastern Finland.

​​​​​​​Thus, according to the statistics of the district courts of Karelia, 236 decisions on violation of migration laws were made in the region in November. Almost all of them fell within the period from November 16 to the beginning of December. In the first two weeks of November, according to court statistics, there were no such cases.

A similar situation is observed in Leningrad and Murmansk regions, which also border Finland.

Human rights activists told the BBC about several cases of refugees from Iraq and Somalia being recruited for the war. According to them, the Russian authorities managed to recruit dozens of foreigners.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cy72zdy47qlo

[wondering]

I wonder what cell she is in tonight?



https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1732734333415309542

More and more wives and mothers speaking up is a good sign. That was a contributing factor for the SU getting out of Afghanistan. Vlad is very well aware of it. He cannot afford to alienate them.

[ORAC]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7-2023

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2023

Russian forces may be suffering losses along the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which Russia is currently generating new forces.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on December 7 that Russian forces lost almost 11,000 personnel (presumably killed or rendered hors de combat by injury) in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions in November 2023.

The operational tempo in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions is currently lower than in the Avdiivka direction. These reported losses suggest that the Russian casualty rate in the Avdiivka area may be even higher given the higher operational tempo there.

Ukrainian officials previously reported that Russian forces lost 5,000 personnel killed and wounded near Avdiivka and Marinka (west of Donetsk City) between October 10 and 26, when Russian forces launched two waves of heavily mechanized assaults to capture Avdiivka. Russian forces are currently conducting mass infantry-led assaults to capture Avdiivka in an apparent effort to conserve armored vehicles despite the risk of even greater manpower losses.

Ukrainian officials have notably indicated that Russian defensive efforts are resulting in significant casualties as well, with Ukrainian forces reportedly killing over 1,200 Russian personnel and wounding over 2,200 on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast between October 17 and November 17. Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and are likely inflicting similar losses on defending Russian forces in this sector of the front.

ISW cannot confirm Ukrainian-provided Russian casualty figures, and reliable figures for Russian casualties in Ukraine are not available. If the Ukrainian-provided figures are generally accurate they suggest that Russian operations in Ukraine are highly attritional overall and that high Russian losses are not just the result of the costliest Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka.

Russian and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian crypto-mobilization efforts produce roughly 20,000 to 40,000 personnel a month, a rate that could be lower than Russia’s current casualty rate in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported in spring and summer 2023 that Russia recruits roughly 20,000 personnel through crypto-mobilization efforts per month.

Ukrainian officials have reported that the Russian force grouping along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast front has roughly not changed since summer 2023, suggesting that the commitment of new personnel to the area is offsetting Russian losses but not increasing the strength of that grouping. ….

Russian operations in Ukraine recently prompted the Russian military command to rush newly created and understrength formations to Ukraine to reinforce sectors of the front, impeding longer-term efforts to form operational and strategic reserves and restructure the Russian ground forces.

Both recruiting and casualty figures likely fluctuate over the course of the year, and all available figures are likely exaggerated. The reported numbers match observed battlefield conditions, however, as well as other Ukrainian reports that the Russian military has only been able to sustain its current manning level in Ukraine despite its reportedly high numbers of new recruits.

High Russian casualties will likely prevent Russian forces from fully replenishing and reconstituting existing units in Ukraine and forming new operational and strategic reserves if Russian force generation efforts continue at current rates while the Russian military continues operations.

Russia does appear able to continue absorbing such losses and making them good with new recruits, however, as long as President Vladimir Putin is willing and able to absorb the domestic consequences.

[ORAC]

“If the mountain won’t come to Mohammed, Mohammed must go to the mountain”….


https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-sign-statement-of-intent-on-co-production-of-weapons/

Ukraine, US sign statement of intent on co-production of weapons

Ukrainian and U.S. officials signed a statement of intent on the co-production of critical weapons and data exchange between the two countries "to address the urgent needs of Ukraine's armed forces," the Pentagon reported (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3609058/austin-ushers-in-us-ukrainian-defense-industrial-base-partnership/).

The document entails that Ukraine will receive the capabilities necessary for its short-term success on the battlefield, long-term economic recovery, and strengthening of the defense sector, according to Ukraine's Presidential Office (https://www.president.gov.ua/news/na-konferenciyi-oboronnih-industrij-u-vashingtoni-ukrayina-t-87561).

One of the key priorities outlined in the statement is the localization of the defense industry in Ukraine, the office wrote.

The agreement between Kyiv and Washington will reportedly contribute to the construction of production facilities in Ukraine to supply the military with arms, in particular air defense equipment and ammunition, as well as repair and maintenance services.

The U.S. Department of Defense and industry partners will provide Ukraine with technical data to start implementing local projects aimed at improving outdated air defense systems in Ukraine's arsenal by integrating Western munitions, reads the office's report.

"The parallel production of these systems in Ukraine and the U.S. will enable speeding up their deployment and help our country maintain air defense in a combat condition."

Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak called (https://t.me/ermaka2022/4108) the document "the foundation for the future of our military industry complex and the strengthening of Ukraine's defense for years to come."

The statement of intent was signed at the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference that took place in Washington D.C., on Dec. 5-6.

The conference brought together 350 U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss ideas to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The event took place amid increasing uncertainty over the U.S.'s further assistance to Ukraine.

Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked (https://kyivindependent.com/senate-gop-blocks-ukraine-funding-bill-from-advancing-in-49-51-vote/) a supplemental funding bill that combined $61 billion in aid for Ukraine with assistance for Israel and Taiwan in a procedural vote held on Dec. 6.

Earlier the same day, the U.S. announced (https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-175-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/) a $175 million defense aid package for Ukraine from previously directed drawdowns, in what Secretary of State Antony Blinken said would be one of the last military aid packages to Ukraine if Congress fails to pass additional funding.

[RedToo]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/18cxitw/nsfw_video_shows_the_depravity_of_the_russian/

[RedToo]

That's not going to do him much good.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1733097023170089204?s=20

[fdr]

That's not going to do him much good.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1733097023170089204?s=20
Russia. 2nd greatest power on that snow covered field.

[NutLoose]

Hmmmm lovely..

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732799397484757102

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732799397484757102

[NutLoose]

An Arty? strike on a Russian helicopter turning and burning in a field.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732436128593035670

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732436128593035670

[NutLoose]

Another high ranking deputy of the LPR terminated. Oleg Popoff formally known as Oleg Popov

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732422142074159579

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732422142074159579

[NutLoose]

I cannot see anything wrong with "looting" as they put it, a dead Russian for his ammo. Better Ukraine having it than a fellow Russian.

A bit gory so link only, Viewer discretion advised.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1732130962019057925

[NutLoose]

I don't think we have seen these in use before.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1730292190780289289

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1730292190780289289

[NutLoose]

Leo1A5 in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733048568309485704

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733048568309485704

[NutLoose]

Kerch gas line on fire so 30,000 now without gas.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1733025342988669003

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1733025342988669003

[NutLoose]

??????

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1732812772256198794

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1732812772256198794

[Beamr]

Daily propaganda dose from Kremlin. Looking at the numbers they are probably counting their own losses, not Ukrainian losses.

MOSCOW, December 7. /TASS/. Russian forces have destroyed 550 Ukrainian warplanes since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.

"In all, the following targets have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation: 550 warplanes, 257 helicopters, 9,568 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 surface-to-air missile systems, 13,870 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,188 multiple rocket launchers, 7,268 field artillery guns and mortars and 16,011 special military motor vehicles," the ministry reported.

https://tass.com/politics/1717603

[golfbananajam]

I cannot see anything wrong with "looting" as they put it, a dead Russian for his ammo. Better Ukraine having it than a fellow Russian.

A bit gory so link only, Viewer discretion advised.

Ammunition, weapons, grenades etc are all fair game, as is anything that's likely to provide intel. Personal items need to be left though.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/parrot_reborn/status/1733179486336606674?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​“I don't know what the **** happened here but the only thing I know is that it WAS a russian position. It looks like it was nuked LOL”..

[Thrust Augmentation]

​​​​​​​“I don't know what the **** happened here but the only thing I know is that it WAS a russian position. It looks like it was nuked LOL”..

Orc mine cache apparently.

[NutLoose]

5 Dutch F16’s for Ukraine departed to Romania for Ukraine pilot training.


Five Dutch F-16s are departing for Fetești airbase in Romania today.5 Dutch F-16 fighter aircraft are currently on their way to the European F-16 training center (EFTC) in Romania.

The fight jets Charleroi airport near Brussels to the training centre for pilots from both NATO countries and Ukraine.

They are three F-16AMs with J-010, J-019 & J-366 serial numbers & two F-16BMs with J-064 & J-210 serial numbers.
The Netherlands wants to provide Ukraine with twelve to 18 fighter jets. It is unclear when Ukraine will actually be able to use the F-16 fighter jets in the war zone.

It is estimated that pilot training will take at least six months. According to the ministry, during the training the machines will only fly in NATO airspace.


​​​​​​​
https://airlive.net/military/2023/11/07/breaking-five-f-16-fighter-jets-are-departing-the-netherlands-today-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine-air-force/

[RedToo]

The importance of the Bradley:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733428801399341503

[NutLoose]

You can run but you can’t hide from an aerial grenade, I do wonder if he was attempting to phone home to say his goodbyes
Warning….there is a bit of blood soaked clothing.


https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1733456275348897883

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1733456275348897883

[20driver]

I would have thought the Ukraines would have orders to grab any Orc cellphones they could get their hands on.

[NutLoose]

Well it looks like one in his hand, but it is filmed from a drone.

[NutLoose]

Germany stepping up to the plate again.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733180159916724685

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733180159916724685

[NutLoose]

More fuel fires in Russia.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733473369880732155

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733473369880732155

[NutLoose]

iIt appears the North Korean ammunition that is being provided to Russia is not that good, infact piss poor.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581

[tdracer]

iIt appears the North Korean ammunition that is being provided to Russia is not that good, infact piss poor.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581

Not exactly a surprise...
Makes you wonder if NK was ever foolish enough to (re-)start a shooting war, how much of their stuff would actually work.

[NutLoose]

A Bradley working the enemy positions, I wouldn’t like to be on the other end of that lot.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733023244448350647

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733023244448350647

[NutLoose]

Bulgaria’s parliament overrules their president to send BTR’s to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733176396883574818

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733176396883574818

​​​​​​​ (https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733176396883574818)..

[RedToo]

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/lapsed-contract-could-deliver-aussie-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-20231208-p5eq2b

[DuncanDoenitz]

iIt appears the North Korean ammunition that is being provided to Russia is not that good, infact piss poor.



https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581
Whatever North Korea may lack in Quality Control, I'm sure it more than makes up for in its HR counselling and employee career development.

​​​​​​​As the relevant production managers are about to discover.

[B Fraser]

Germany stepping up to the plate again.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733180159916724685


250 artillery rounds...... it will all be over by Christmas.

​​​​​​​:rolleyes:

[Beamr]

Soviet union, 1983, people queuing for eggs....
no, wait, sorry: Russia, 2023, people queuing for eggs.
Some say the sanctions don't work and ruble is strong.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1733752783034007932

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1733752783034007932

[ETOPS]

Not seen this Russian equipment before. Easy target though..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfuohNkB5y4

[ORAC]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1733780605781864858?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


A high-ranking Russian helicopter pilot with the call sign "Bes" was murdered in Voronezh on Friday after someone fired 7 bullets at him while he was standing at a bus stop.

This information was revealed by the Russian "Fighterbomber" channel, and although officials attempted to cover the story up, Fighterbomber confirmed this morning that Bes had died in hospital from his wounds.

This pilot not only took part in the bombing of Ukrainian cities, he was also passing his experience to student pilots.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1096x858/image_c733fe16b900fa2b1a1060defb5f051283ffe3eb.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/lapsed-contract-could-deliver-aussie-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-20231208-p5eq2b

Lapsed contract could deliver Aussie fighter jets to Ukraine

Ukraine is pleading with the Albanese government for a regular supply of coal as Russia lobs intense attacks on its electricity grid, and will soon make a fresh request for the RAAF’s retired F/A-18 fighter jets after a deal to transfer them to an American company lapsed.

Amid stalemates on the battlefield and in US Congress (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5epsa) for further funding of the war effort, Ukrainian defence officials this week included the 1980s-era F/A-18 Hornets as one of the weapons they wanted in top level talks with American counterparts.

AFR Weekend understands Ukraine’s defence ministry has resolved to make a request for Australia’s retired 41 Hornets, which have languished at Williamtown RAAF base since 2021 (https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/retired-raaf-fighter-jets-could-be-sent-to-ukraine-20230605-p5de0h).

Defence Minister Richard Marles, who said in July transferring the aircraft was “complicated”, was non-committal when asked about a fresh approach.

“Australia remains steadfast in its commitment to support Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s illegal and immoral war,” Mr Marles’ spokeswoman said. “Australia continues to work with the government of Ukraine to determine what support we can provide to enable Ukraine to end this conflict on its own terms.”

Ukrainian ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko last week wrote to Foreign Minister Penny Wong asking for fresh coal shipments ahead of the freezing northern hemisphere winter.

Mr Myroshnychenko has told the government and MPs from both major parties that coal is not a “lifestyle choice” for Ukraine and Russia wants to “finish off” his homeland’s civilian population by crippling its ability to keep its population warm when heavy snow can see temperatures plunge to minus 10 degrees.

The Morrison government donated a one-off shipment of 70,000 tonnes of coal last year. Mr Myroshnychenko argues his country needs a year-round supply because Ukraine is now relying heavily on coal-fired power generation because Russia captured its major nuclear power station and destroyed much of its hydroelectric production.

“We have to survive this winter,” Mr Myroshnychenko told AFR Weekend. “Russia is ramping up its attacks on our energy system and this will be a tough winter for us.”

Senator Wong will consider the coal request, as Ukraine’s energy ministry this week urged residents to save power after Russian shelling damaged a power station near the frontline, resulting in a “temporary shortage of electricity”.

Senior United Nations figures this week told the Security Council that Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure most stop amid “staggering” levels of deaths and destruction. “Many people have been left without access to heat, electricity and water, particularly in the east and south,” UN humanitarian co-ordinator Ramesh Rajasingham said.

Mr Myroshnychenko is continuing to press Australia for more Bushmaster armoured troop carriers – 120 have been promised so far – as well as drones and counter-drone technology and de-mining equipment.

But at a meeting between Ukrainian and US defence officials in Washington this week, Kyiv put forward an extensive list of equipment it wants, including air defence systems, helicopters and F/A-18s, according to documents cited by Reuters.

Ukraine’s request comes despite US congressional Republicans blocking the White House’s request for a fresh tranche of $US50 billion ($76 billion) in aid.

Talks between Australian, US and Ukrainian officials to sell Australia’s retired Hornets stalled earlier this year, in part because of the decision to prioritise acquiring F-16 fighter jets instead.

An American aviation company, RAVN, was given the rights to dispose of the aircraft, and initially looked at moving them to the US to be used as “enemy” planes in training exercises.

RAVN’s contract to dispose of the planes lapsed this month, leaving the federal government fully back in charge of their fate. The planes are slated for destruction if they cannot be sold or transferred.

A condition report identified 14 of the 41 airframes in the best condition that could be readied within four to six months to make them airworthy and squeeze another two years of life out of them.

[NutLoose]

A destroyed Russian Grad looks almost like a piece of art.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733845252752932983

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733845252752932983

[NutLoose]

Drones verse’s Russian troops, they just do not have a chance when caught out in the open.

Quote only https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733829300015481278

[NutLoose]

:ugh:

"About 3.5 thousand trucks are in queues in Poland in the direction of Ukraine", — DPSU.

[NutLoose]

UFO’s are forcing Russia to put overhead defences on their trench lines.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733777146517074128

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733777146517074128

[NutLoose]

A Russian pilot discussing the Shahed drones, re-engineering with a jet engine, 3x faster, better nav, larger payload.

But a lot are commenting can it withstand the higher speeds and it negates the idea of a cheap drone.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733591691020398772

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733591691020398772

[Herod]

Drones verse’s Russian troops, they just do not have a chance when caught out in the open.

Quote only
Very impressive, but is it cost-effective?

[Ninthace]

Consider the alternatives such as close engagement with small arms on the one hand an indirect fire on the other, The former may be cheaper in terms of ammunition but you risk casualties you can ill afford. the latter is probably more expensive/kill if this is a one hit, one or more kills system.

[DogTailRed2]

Very impressive, but is it cost-effective?
A modern army spends money on tech, not on lives. If it saved one Ukrainian life then yes it's cost effective.

[DogTailRed2]

Watching this thread from day one it would appear the Russians are now dug in hard and the battles we are seeing are just skirmishes.
Ukraine has the occasional major success like hitting a sub but when it comes to the ground offensive Russia seems to be throwing more and more meat into the grinder just to slow everything down into a war of bloody attrition.
I get the feeling this war will be ongoing for many more years to come.

[Video Mixdown]

A modern army spends money on tech, not on lives. If it saved one Ukrainian life then yes it's cost effective.
It’s also possible that some of these are not random targets of opportunity but intelligence driven attacks on individuals or groups of particular importance.

[NutLoose]

The Russian version of pass the parcel.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733859472148148311

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1733859472148148311

[ORAC]

Two linked threads… Assuming we are determined t9 support Ukraine that is,,,,

https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/1733826361897136303?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Putin doesn’t sound like a man who’s interested in a negotiated peace in Ukraine:

“They’re running out [of weapons]… They don’t have anything, they have no future. But we do have a future.”

(This is a newly released clip from his Kremlin awards ceremony for troops on Friday)

​​​​​​​https://x.com/cameron19460429/status/1733670684700594436?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BAE systems in the UK will be capable of producing more than 1.5 million large caliber artillery shells annually in the near future. This is a significant increase vs my estimates a few months ago as I have now been able to find the pre war production levels.

Pre war BAE was making 16,000 large caliber shells per month. And like I reported in July BAE publicly released their plan to 8x large caliber artillery shell production. Which would put them at around 128,000 a month or 1.5 million per year.

This is possible because the Washington plant is very new and extremely modern. Having just opened in 2012-2013 when most U.S plants have parts that date back to WW2. BAE Washington had 14 ultra modern machines with separate control rooms and extremely automated processes.

And Is likely among the most efficient 155mm production facility’s on the planet. It can be almost certain that the plant has continually been improved and added on to with a rapid surge in demand and plans to 8x production.

​​​​​​​I also have it on good authority after speaking to some people familiar with forging that a similar amount of 155mm and 105mm can be made in the same time frame by the same processes. So like in other plants around the world it would likely be easy to switch completely to 155mm.…

[havoc]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/500x500/img_4622_e819126d1d0037c71e0b97c499952cd391a58fc4.jpeg

[NutLoose]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/500x500/img_4622_e819126d1d0037c71e0b97c499952cd391a58fc4.jpeg


Yes, they do the same for downed aircraft too :) cool aren’t they.

[Herod]

havoc: I want one, any ideas where?

[ORAC]

Take your pick…

https://www.createdinukraine.com/

https://memorysteelua.shop/

https://www.etsy.com/uk/shop/SteelAndFeel

[havoc]

Wilddrootss.com

seen on FB

[henra]

Very impressive, but is it cost-effective?

Let's do the Maths. If this drone costs 10k€ and you want to kill 400k Troops this would cost 4bln$. I would consider that super cost- effective.

[NutLoose]

Britain to supply two more minehunters to Ukraine who are purchasing them, that will make four they will have, as they received two previously.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-to-receive-2-military-ships-from-1702261597.html

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-to-receive-2-military-ships-from-1702261597.html

[NutLoose]

More on the UK Norwegian collaboration to aid the Ukraine establish a new Navy. The Uk is also training Ukrainian Navy officers.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1734146192425058425

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1734146192425058425

[NutLoose]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x1080/gbdvgw7xaaa3bl7_fe0742e5cba8da6535b80ae8492b7fcd309322fa.png

[NutLoose]

Pali, you might like this, I would love to here what was said.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1733971306243104998

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1733971306243104998

And

https://twitter.com/AbsorbUnderwear/status/1733988527426216184

https://twitter.com/AbsorbUnderwear/status/1733988527426216184

[ORAC]

The sound of modern warfare that will cause panic attacks in the next generation of PTSD sufferers….

https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1733977437707399471?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Winemaker]

Let's do the Maths. If this drone costs 10k€ and you want to kill 400k Troops this would cost 4bln$. I would consider that super cost- effective.
Further, during the Korean war it took approximately 50,000 rounds of small arms fire to kill one enemy. Drones might be more cost effective both from financial and troop perspectives. The accuracy of modern guided artillery is certainly a game changer. This war is certainly changing the way armies will fight in the future.

[BlankBox]

I'm delayed dead...

https://v.redd.it/rd439qm4u35c1

[NutLoose]

Russia is running the Nazi playbook.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1734349734301827256

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1734349734301827256

[Lonewolf_50]

Nutty, I'll suggest that you have that one in the wrong thread.

Back to aviation:
Bad weather is common in this month and the coming months. What's that going to do to
Air warfare, drones? I have read a few bits here and there on the coming winter campaign, but nothing that really moved the needle.

[MJ89]

100 years ago we had the trench war on the x plane, now we are doing the same from the y n z, drones are probably cheaper than bullets.
but **** i hate seeing sleeping humans pushed it the front blown away like meat sacks. by drone. then again there no difference between that and an old trench shell.
a allied hand handled it seconds before it blowing up the other sides guy on return to earth.#

on a lighter note, kinda https://youtube.com/shorts/L07QVpcC1HU?si=VPpXvvKyQxxBeROc

[ORAC]

General Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR):

https://youtu.be/m6de4M0jDDA?si=z2MvpiTtPc9U0nfu

[ORAC]

Identified battlefield losses 12th December. Not sure what happened, or where, but the Russians suffered a large defeat.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1055x1299/image_a8e09f4f28ff5b735c91fb474135733957d1c6df.png

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile in Russia, gritting is under way. You have to keep those supply line to Ukraine open.

https://twitter.com/WinstonCatNews/status/1731295537096196170

https://twitter.com/WinstonCatNews/status/1731295537096196170

[ORAC]

Sky News:

New Polish PM to demand 'full mobilisation' of West behind Ukraine

New Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has left Ukraine in no doubt as to his feelings on the war - saying he will "demand full mobilisation" of the West.

Relations between the two neighbours have appeared to sour slightly in recent months during a tense election campaign.

There was a ban on Ukrainian grain imports in September, in a bid by the Law and Justice party to get farmers on side. Now-defeated PM Mateusz Morawiecki then went further, announcing Poland would end the supply of arms to Ukraine and focus on domestic rearmaments. The remarks were later caveated but would have been viewed with concern in Kyiv amid talk of the potential for war fatigue in the West.

Now, Mr Tusk has moved to reaffirm his country's backing for the war effort, tweeting: "We will demand the full mobilisation of the West to help Ukraine.

"I can't listen any more to politicians who talk about being tired of the situation in #Ukraine... attack on Ukraine is an attack on us all."

[NutLoose]

And he appears proud of such modern aids.... I just hope he does not see what Ukraine supply to their troops.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1733755140434190454

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1733755140434190454

[NutLoose]

Somethings lighting up the night in Rostov Russia.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1734619349246185940

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1734619349246185940

[NutLoose]

Rybar, those dumb Russians believe Ukraine and Moldova intend to take Transnistria as the U.K. has said now is the time. It would free up troops though ;)

https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1731792101900161232

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1731792101900161232

[ORAC]

BREAKING: Finland has decided to double its heavy ammunition (artillery/shell) production capacity for Ukraine until the 2030s — an example of continuous support for Ukraine for allies to follow.

These are new investments, building new production lines to be completed by 2026-7. They will provide ammuniton to Ukraine until at least the 2030s.

Before this, Finland has already multiplied production numbers within their existing capacity.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1734781441215529109?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


US intelligence assessed that the war in Ukraine has devastated the pre-war Russian military, although Russia has partially offset these losses and continues to prepare for a long war in Ukraine.(1/5)

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x541/image_cc50d2174b2eb9b79e57561b27b6c5c9e640e5f2.png

[ORAC]

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1734636929218400755?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Czech Ministry of Defense issued licenses for the supply of military equipment to Ukraine worth €4.7 billion.

The private military-industrial complex of the Czech Republic will take orders and produce equipment for Ukraine.

[NutLoose]

A lot were disarmed and sold off on the open market by Germany, these are designed to use Tow, which the Ukrainians have. Small and lightweight they appear to be in service.

Photo, published online recently, suggests a unit of Ukrainian army, most likely the 3rd Assault Brigade, has acquired a Wiesel airborne armored fighting vehicle equipped with a TOW anti-tank missile system.

This vehicle seems to be a de-weaponized variant that can be purchased on the civilian market without limitations, whereas the missile was installed upon delivery. Alternatively, the weapon might be replaced with a turret or a machine gun.


https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukrainian_army_apparently_got_german_wiesel_3_ton_tankettes-8846.html

[NutLoose]

Russia has had to demine the entrance to Sevastopol, it appears Ukraine have managed to get unmanned boats to seliver mines to the entrance and mine it.

In October 14, 2023, the russian Black Sea Fleet utilized mine-sweeping ships, including Vice-Admiral Zakharin, Ivan Antonov, Ivan Golubets, and Kovrovets, to conduct combat trawling to clear out sea mines in the outer roadstead of Sevastopol Bay, marking the first time since 1974 that such action was taken in russia.

This information was reported by the bmpd blog (available in public access), referencing the Morskoy sbornik monthly magazine from the russian Ministry of Defense, issue No. 12 (not available in public access).

To put it simply, the Ukrainian Defense Forces in an unknown way successfully deployed a significant number of sea mines in the area in October 2023, prompting an immediate need for combat trawling by the russian fleet.

And apparently, this episode was so sensitive that russians acknowledged the very fact of such an event only two months later.

Surface ships of the Ukrainian Navy can be ruled out as the source of mine deployment.

Just in case, we remind you that publicly available data indicates the Balta auxiliary ship was converted into a minelayer just months before russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.


https://en.defence-ua.com/events/ukrainian_naval_success_acknowledged_months_later_russian_tr awlers_sweep_seamines_deployed_by_ukrainian_drones-8830.html

[NutLoose]

Russia admits their latest version of the S400 cannot take down ballistic missiles.

While boasting about its weaponry, the russian federation inadvertently acknowledged that the S-400 air defense system lacks the capability to engage ballistic missiles. Although not explicitly stated, this revelation was made in an article by the russian state-controlled newspaper Izvestia, as the editors were attempting to underscore the superiority of the S-400 over Western anti-aircraft missile systems.

The focal point of the discussion was the 40N6 interceptor missile, the one which was ordered in a quantity of 1,000 units (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/thousand_40n6_missiles_in_three_years_russia_announced_massi ve_production_plan_for_newly_tested_400_km_range_sam_for_s_4 00_systems-8452.html) produced over the next three years. The emphasis on this particular missile is significant because previously russia admitted the 9M96 missile of the S-400 system did not employ kinetic energy interception but relied on detonation close to the target.

Now, according to the russian newspaper, during interception of a ballistic target, the 40N6 missile, quote, "hits with pellets of metal fragments and destroys the warhead of the enemy's weapon." However, the earlier disclosed specifications (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/thousand_40n6_missiles_in_three_years_russia_announced_massi ve_production_plan_for_newly_tested_400_km_range_sam_for_s_4 00_systems-8452.html) suggest that this can be achieved in a very short range, only 15 km.

In essence, the 40N6 missile does not employ kinetic target interception, commonly known as "hit-to-kill" technology. The main difference is that fragmentation damage does not guarantee effective neutralization of a ballistic missile because it is already practically falling onto its target by the time it meets with the interceptor. Fragments can damage the missile or its flight control systems but cannot stop the fall of a big chunk of explosive.

Basically, the situation with the S-400 echoes the experience with the Patriot PAC-2 in the late 1980s, believed to be adapted for intercepting ballistic missiles. To add anti-missile capability, the Americans had optimized the radar proximity fuze and increased the weight of the preformed fragments from 2 to 45 grams.

During the Persian Gulf War in 1991, 41 out of 42 Iraqi Scud missiles (R-17s of the Elbrus SRBM system and its derivatives) were claimed to have been intercepted, i.e. 97%, later estimates were reduced to an average of 55%. In 1992, a congressional committee carried out an investigation to find out where the money, allocated to upgrade the Patriot to the PAC-2 modernization, went; and they concluded that the actual success rate of that version of Patriot was only 9%.

This led to a new Patriot modernization program incorporating kinetic energy interception, giving rise to the Patriot PAC-3, first with the CRI anti-missile interceptor, later replaced by MSE. For the creation of Patriot PAC-3, the engineers used experience and concepts developed during the famous Strategic Defense Initiative program.

The absence of hit-to-kill technology in the S-400 contrasts with top-tier anti-missile defense systems like the European SAMP/T and the Israeli David's Sling, highlighting a significant difference in capabilities between these systems and conventional anti-aircraft systems.

Same "hit-to-kill" technology is implemented both in the European SAMP/T and in the Israeli David's Sling, as well as other top-tier anti-missile defense systems, it is the main feature and difference from ordinary anti-aircraft systems. The absence of a kinetic interceptor for the S-400 is why russia is still a generation behind in terms of modern air defense capabilities.


https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/unwillingly_russians_admit_their_s_400_cannot_repel_ballisti c_missiles_even_with_newest_40n6_interceptors-8519.html

[NutLoose]

Avdviivka and the racking up of vehicle kills. I don’t care how many vehicles Russia can generate, these losses must be unsustainable. It’s not just vehicles, it is fuel, and ammunition too.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734928556998738115

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734928556998738115

[Ninthace]

Their tanks seem to be keeping their turrets these days - no fair!

[NutLoose]

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734846303081734279
https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734846303081734279

[NutLoose]

Another Mariupol Marine sentenced to life on trumped up Russian charges, one day these Russian court bastards need to fall from a great height, or finish their time in one of their own penal colonies

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734673464919736737

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1734673464919736737

[NutLoose]

When your life depends on a single throw, he fluffs it.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1734703572388897122

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1734703572388897122

[NutLoose]

More Russian warcrimes, using Ukrainian prisoners of war as human shield’s by forcing them out of trenches to get Ukraine to cease firing near Bakhmut and using them as shields when advancing.

https://twitter.com/Torchcz/status/1735037322712768934

https://twitter.com/Torchcz/status/1735037322712768934

.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1734958912913183152?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Seven groups in Poland are preparing to seize facilities and terrorist acts in Belarus, – the Belarusian KGB head stated.

Chairman of the State Security Committee (KGB) of Belarus Ivan Tertel stated that the Belarusian security services allegedly repeatedly received data that Polish groups might want to commit provocations "using the methods of 1939".

He declared:
"Minsk remembers how the Second World War began – with provocation by the Germans 'using Polish uniforms'."

"We do not use such a practice and do not think it is a good thing," Tertel said. He said that "Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics should be prepared that the weapons used against Belarus could turn against its own handlers"

‼️ By all appearances, Poland should expect new provocations from the territory of Belarus.

[NutLoose]

Previously reported Orac.

A Russian giving the bird receives a grenade in return.

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735039737017037208

[NutLoose]

Talk about a rapid turnover of troops

https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1734964439806263364

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1734964439806263364

[NutLoose]

Representatives of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine ask PM Orbán to change course and support the country's EU accession. "We strongly urge all leaders of EU member states to continue supporting Ukraine on the path of European integration."

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1582x1230/image_1f4284cfef496133f001f279dcdf6a8acb45b240.jpeg

[NutLoose]

A translation of the text

This is Damian Duda, a Polish medical volunteer who goes to the front and saves Ukrainian soldiers. The video shows one of these evacuations from hot spots. "It is necessary to understand that this is not only a war between Ukraine and the Russians. This is Ukraine's war against the civilization of death. Ukraine is fighting for all peaceful people, for all that is good. Therefore, I also understand that this is also my war," says Damian Duda in an interview for Public Radio. And Damian Duda received the Order of Merit III degree, which was presented to him by Volodymyr Zelenskyi during a meeting in Lublin with Polish volunteers and doctors. Read an interview with Damian Duda, a Polish medical volunteer, founder and head of the "W międzyczasie" foundation, on the Public Radio website: https://cutt.ly/JwSroqD6 (https://t.co/cGheuvppzw) Medical volunteers of this fund work at the front in Ukraine. The material was prepared with the help of MediaPort Warsaw, a hub for Ukrainian journalists in Poland, and with the support of the international initiative Media Lifeline Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/HromadskeRadio/status/1735022329443340315

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/HromadskeRadio/status/1735022329443340315

[tdracer]

More Russian warcrimes, using Ukrainian prisoners of war as human shield’s by forcing them out of trenches to get Ukraine to cease firing near Bakhmut and using them as shields when advancing.

https://twitter.com/Torchcz/status/1735037322712768934

.
I think a few talented Ukrainian snipers would solve that...

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian border guards attempting to take down drone attacks.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735241840951971873

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735241840951971873

[NutLoose]

Based on various figures given by Putin, military analyst Yan Matveyev says the president has essentially admitted to Russian losses of around 363,000 in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1735256083046846488

[NutLoose]

Estonia has decided their long-term military aid to Ukraine will be 0.25% of our GDP over the next 4 years.

https://twitter.com/MoD_Estonia/status/1735242588116992154

https://twitter.com/MoD_Estonia/status/1735242588116992154

[NutLoose]

A Russian soldier surrenders and wishes to fight for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1734322454296744142

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1734322454296744142

[Uberteknik]

Based on various figures given by Putin, military analyst Yan Matveyev says the president has essentially admitted to Russian losses of around 363,000 in Ukraine
Bit optimistic there,

During the conference, at one point he revealed Russia currently has a total of 617,000 troops in Ukraine. He also claimed that on top of 300,000 people called up for service last year, another 486,000 have signed up voluntarily as contract soldiers.

Doing the sums: (300,000 + 486,000) - 617,000 = 169,000

That is of course if one believes the 486,000 volunteers and 617,000 fighting in Ukraine.

A classified US intelligence report estimated this week that 315,000 Russian soldiers had been either killed or wounded since the war began - which it said was almost 90% of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion.

Reported on the BBC website.

[NutLoose]

Vladimir Putin (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/vladimir-putin) has inadvertently suggested that more than 300,000 Russian soldiers have died or been heavily wounded in Ukraine (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/ukraine).

The figures are in stark contrast to the last death toll offered by the Kremlin, which suggested less than 6,000 troops in Ukraine had been killed.

During his first news conference since the full-scale invasion, he suggested that 244,000 Russians had been mobilised, before adding that 486,000 had volunteered to fight.

He then proceeded to say that 617,000 Russians were fighting in Ukraine.

According to military analyst Yan Matveyev, an additional 250,000 Russian soldiers were involved in the first stages of the invasion in the six months prior to the partial mobilisation of September 2022.

“That is, Putin (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/putin) literally admitted irretrievable losses in the amount of 363,000 people,” Mr Matveyev said.

This figure roughly aligns with US estimates that were declassified earlier this week, which suggested that Russia (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/russia) had suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops in Ukraine.

But the last time the Kremlin offered an estimate of the death toll was September 2022, in which they said only 5,937 soldiers had been killed.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-news-putin-health-counter-offensive-b2463751.html?page=7

[Herod]

Based on various figures given by Putin, military analyst Yan Matveyev says the president has essentially admitted to Russian losses of around 363,000 in Ukraine

That's roughly, unless I'm way out, 570 per day since the invasion started. Not bad.

[NutLoose]

In one report, around Adviivka they have calculated it is costing Russia 3000 per square mile taken.

[nevillestyke]

In one report, around Adviivka they have calculated it is costing Russia 3000 per square mile taken.
So, at that rate they would only lose four times the entire population of Ruzzia, to take all of Ukraine. They'd need some friends to help out.

[NutLoose]

I don’t know how accurate this is.

Russia intends to continue the war until 2026, capturing Kharkov and the Dnieper - BILD citing sources Western propaganda claims that Moscow is counting on a decrease in Western support for Ukraine by developing a new medium-term war plan.
By the end of 2024, it is planned to establish full control over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and reach the Oskol River in the Kharkov region.
By the end of 2026, it is planned to advance further west to the Dnieper, capturing a significant part of the Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions , including Kharkov, Dnieper and Zaporozhye.
On the Kherson front it is planned to hold the defense along the Dnieper without attacking the right bank of Kherson or Odessa.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1024x1147/image_686c255f68b94a8bbee858d797dcff5c16a53d28.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[Winemaker]

I don’t know how accurate this is.

​​​​​​​
Yeah well, if wishes were horses beggars would ride. Even as a Yank I know that one. An obvious counter is to drop the bridge(s).

[GlobalNav]

Yeah well, if wishes were horses beggars would ride. Even as a Yank I know that one. An obvious counter is to drop the bridge(s).

Fun to think what an undetected B2 with guided bombs could do.

[Wokkafans]

Usual caveats, especially considering this is a pro-Russia account:

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735585877579972910?s=20

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735604779462562257?s=20 (https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735604779462562257?s=20)


https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735604779462562257?s=20 (https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735604779462562257?s=20)

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1735585877579972910?s=20

[NutLoose]

Ukrainian close combat fighting against a large Russian convoy attempting to breach their positions, and close as in across the yard!

Let me get this straight for a neophyte. So the armored vehicles drop them off and flee, even though they didn't come under serious fire, leaving the infantry to be gunned down in the fields by Ukrainians hidden in cover of the houses.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735335437810438491

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735335437810438491

The aftermath, several vehicles disabled and the Russians have fled the scene.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735599511962079618

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735599511962079618

[NutLoose]

:ok: that's no micro aid!

Bulgaria's Parliament Approves €3.6 billion in micro-financial aid to Ukraine, marking the second stage of planned assistance. The ratification passed with 116 MPs in favor, while 48 voted against, and 6 abstained


..

[Tartiflette Fan]

Bit optimistic there,

During the conference, at one point he revealed Russia currently has a total of 617,000 troops in Ukraine. He also claimed that on top of 300,000 people called up for service last year, another 486,000 have signed up voluntarily as contract soldiers.

Doing the sums: (300,000 + 486,000) - 617,000 = 169,000

That is of course if one believes the 486,000 volunteers and 617,000 fighting in Ukraine.

A classified US intelligence report estimated this week that 315,000 Russian soldiers had been either killed or wounded since the war began - which it said was almost 90% of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion.

Reported on the BBC website.

I can't follow your logi. You seem to be saying, as I understand it, that only troops who joined the Ru army in 2022 onwards have been/are involved in this conflict. This is clealy impossible because Russia inducts conscripts twice a year: Spring (April 1 to July 15,) and Autumn ( October 1 and December 31 ) so the Spring intake didn't exist in Feb 22 when the SMO started. There is also the fact that , legally, conscripts are not to be used outside Russia, although this was flouted ( supposedly by mistake ) during 2022 Volunteer numbers would also have been very small, since Russians typicallly do everything possible to avoid the army, and there were not the now much higher salaries which have significantly increased the number of volunteers. .

This means that the initial invasion force of 300 000 men consisted of regular Russian troops ( and conscripts ? ) but in any case, of men who are unaccounted for in your workings.

EDIT: The following link ( 3:58 ) also concludes that the invasion force was entirely from the Russian regular army and consisted of 360 000 of their best troops, of which 315 000 (87% ) are now "lost"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkMJ5V_v0uY

[NutLoose]

Footage showing a Bradley going head to head against a BMP that decides fleeing is the best option and then gets hit by both the Bradley multiple times and a cluster munition.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735578680103932114

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735578680103932114

[nomorecatering]

If anyone thinks Putin will stop with Ukrain, you are freaking nuts.

His aim is to plug the gaps that would allow a future invader to roll into Russia. Bessarabian Gap comes to mind. Moldova, the STAN countries, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are all targets.

[NutLoose]

For those that thought Germany's latest 155mm artillery shell donation was small, their supply details have been updated.

Germany updated their aid to Ukraine

9 Bandvagn 206 ATV
1 Patriot system + spareparts/missiles
7.390 155-mm shells
6 mine clearing systems
14 drone detection systems
16 Zetros trucks/tankers
4 semi-trailers
4 vehicles
47.040 40-mm ammo

Their total deliveries which is massive can be viewed here

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

[NutLoose]

Curling with a difference.... ermm.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735563776521327066

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735563776521327066

[NutLoose]

Mariupol's, concrete plant has been hit and is burning, I suppose it might have been producing the pyramid tank traps as well as rebuilding the city?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1735421933334761516

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1735421933334761516

It also looks like Russia has plans to get the iron and steel works up and running.

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1735011320062259683

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1735011320062259683

update on top story:

At night in #Mariupol (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariupol?src=hashtag_click), the attack was not only on the territory of the concrete plant, where the occupiers' armored vehicles were stationed, but also on Port-City, where #ruZZians (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ruZZians?src=hashtag_click) had air defense systems, said Andriushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.

[NutLoose]

The Mariupol to Melitipol highway is also being widened to four lanes. More reason's to drop that damned bridge.

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1735489616113729669

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1735489616113729669

[fdr]

That's roughly, unless I'm way out, 570 per day since the invasion started. Not bad.

How many of the dead were called Vlad Putin?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Mariupol's, concrete plant has been hit and is burning, I suppose it might have been producing the pyramid tank traps as well as rebuilding the city?


Vlogger - Reporting from Ukraine (https://www.youtube.com/@RFU) - says that it was being used as a Russian barracks/base

[Bergerie1]

Let us hope that this report is correct:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/15/eu-summit-live-talks-hungary-viktor-orban-aid-ukraine

[MightyGem]

Curling with a difference.... ermm.
No detonators. Perfectly safe.

[NutLoose]

Dodgy North Korean ammo, faulty Russian manufacture, or just plain worn out barrels.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735775504911708336

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735775504911708336

[NutLoose]

Lithuanian repairs a pair of Leopards and return them to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735758463173628058

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735758463173628058

[NutLoose]

A Donetsk oil terminal suffers from more discarded cigarettes.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735752330362921291

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735752330362921291

[NutLoose]

Lithuania supplies millions of rounds and winter clothing to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735740950612201825

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735740950612201825

[NutLoose]

Beware of the back blast, apparently not… A Russian takes himself out of the war.

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735749533865226457

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735749533865226457

[NutLoose]

Russian gains near Marinka.

[https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735700870468096284

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735700870468096284

and the cost

[url]https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735657401833926957

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735657401833926957


​​​​​​​ (https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735657401833926957)..

[NutLoose]

In Transcarpathia a councillor threw three flash bangs at a council meeting. Film of incident, link only due to incident filmed.

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735630364851192053

[NutLoose]

Ermmmm

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735336635242283408

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735336635242283408

[ORAC]

https://x.com/shashj/status/1735672247908454665?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The current challenge is to be realistic about Russian capacity in Ukraine without being fatalistic about Ukraine's prospects. This short 24-page paper by Estonia's defence ministry is a welcome effort at setting out a potential strategy.

https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/setting_transatlantic_defence_up_for_success_0.pdf

Some highlights…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1735672247908454665.html

[Rockie_Rapier]

Waging the war in Ukraine costs Russia around a trillion rubles (€10.2 billion per current exchange rate) per month in military expenses alone. Assessments suggest that hidden war-related expenditures veiled under a variety of other categories in the federal budget could account for an extra 30% on top of this, co-funding by regions and private entities further adding to the total.9 Meanwhile, the Ramstein coalition’s monthly cost of military support averages at €5.3 billion (including still undelivered and multi-year commitments).
Russia’s military budget for 2023, after being doubled mid-year, comprises a third of the entire federal budget. A similar share (29.4%) has been planned for military expenditure in 2024, effectively at the expense of essential state functions such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social policy.10 Concurrently, the war effort is biting into Russia’s National Wealth Fund reserves substantially and at a significant pace – and will almost certainly continue to do so as long as the war lasts. Given the setbacks in health and social sphere budgets as well as the announced increase of pensions11, other federal funds such as The Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and The Federal Fund for Mandatory Medical Insurance are unlikely to provide any shelter for uncovered costs.

More from that Estonian report.
Perhaps we can expect more protests about the price of staple foods from ordainary Russian civilians.

[NutLoose]

Russia plans to mobilise another 170,000 according to the U.K.

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1734939894579904766

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1734939894579904766

[NutLoose]

More on the budget Rocky, Wagner ie Russia is plundering Africa for gold which has added 2.6 billion dollars to their funds this year, perhaps a way needs to be found to cut that off.

The Kremlin has laundered $2.5 billion of African gold since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a report (https://bloodgoldreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/The-Blood-Gold-Report-Dec-2023.pdf) by an international group of researchers and human rights activists published on Dec. 12.

Russia's illicit activities and ties to authoritarian regimes in Africa have been under the public eye for years. Russian mercenaries on the continent, whose operations help to fill Moscow's coffers, have been repeatedly accused of human rights abuses against local populations.

The Blood Gold Report reveals that Russia-backed mercenaries, including the Wagner Company, support authoritarian regimes and destabilization in Africa as part of resource extraction schemes that bring Russia more than $100 million per month.

The research focused on Wagner's operations in three African countries, each illustrating a different method of resource extraction.

In the Central African Republic, a Wagner front company has been reportedly awarded exclusive rights to the Ndassima mine, the country's largest gold mine, in return for propping up an authoritarian regime.

In Sudan, Wagner has become the dominant buyer of the country's unprocessed gold through a Russia-controlled major refinery, the report said.

The mercenary group is also allegedly involved in gold smuggling. A number of Russian military planes loaded with the precious metal have been identified by Sudanese customs officials.

Finally, in Mali, Wagner is reportedly paid around $10.8 million per month to prop up the country's military junta, which, in turn, relies on a small number of international mining companies for most of its tax revenue.


more

​​​​​​​https://kyivindependent.com/report-russia-has-laundered-2-5-billion-of-african-gold-since-february-2022/

https://kyivindependent.com/report-russia-has-laundered-2-5-billion-of-african-gold-since-february-2022/

[DogTailRed2]

Ermmmm



https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735336635242283408

That looks more like a flyby while the launcher was on a fire mission. Those don't look like A2A missiles?

[Wokkafans]

Austrian Bundesheer take on why the Ukrainian Summer offensive failed:

"The Ukraine offensive has failed - What´s next?

Colonel Markus Reisner analyses and explains the causes and consequences of the Ukrainian summer offensive which, according to Ukrainian officials, ultimately failed after more than 190 days. What was the initial situation, how should the Ukrainian attacks be assessed from a tactical and operational perspective and what strategic conclusions can be drawn?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjMr3RZ8Ss&t=49s&ab_channel=ÖsterreichsBundesheer

[Winemaker]

From the New York Times today, not a happy report. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html

There was a faint tremor in the marine’s voice as he recounted the murderous fighting on the east bank of the Dnipro River, where he was wounded recently.

“We were sitting in the water at night and we were shelled by everything,” the marine, Maksym, said. “My comrades were dying in front of my eyes.”

For two months, Ukraine’s Marine Corps has been spearheading an assault across the Dnipro River in the southern region of Kherson to recapture territory from Russian troops. The operation is Ukraine’s latest attempt in its flagging counteroffensive to breach Russian defenses in the south and turn the tide of the war.

Soldiers and marines who have taken part in the river crossings described the offensive as brutalizing and futile, as waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side.

Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in. The first approaches tend to be marshy islands threaded with rivulets or meadows that have become a quagmire of mud and bomb craters filled with water.

[BlankBox]

"Z" ...as in Zoom! :ok:

https://t.me/Ukraine_365News/68120 (https://t.me/s/Ukraine_365News)

[FUMR]

From the New York Times today, not a happy report. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html

Not good. I was naive enough to think they were, but perhaps the Ukrainian Generals are no smarter than the Russians!

[NutLoose]

I think the idea was to draw troops away from other parts of the Russian defences.

[NutLoose]

Two sides to a smug Russian

https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735953589699268941

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735953589699268941

[NutLoose]

Freon storage hangar in Russia on fire.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1735956678690959525
https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1735956678690959525
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

Not good. I was naive enough to think they were, but perhaps the Ukrainian Generals are no smarter than the Russians!
It's called propaganda. The first casualty of war is always the truth.

[NutLoose]

Now this is something you do not see every day, a Russian SU 34 being transported by road for repair never made it.

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1734902935694246098

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1734902935694246098

[ORAC]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1736139857624240300?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


…A Ukrainian private company started serial production of a kamikaze UAV with 750KM range. They can produce up to 100 a month….

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1068x712/image_1da4c90c599b63307c4ece00787a5505ca4a5f13.png
​​​​​​​

[NutLoose]

So to answer all the Western people calling for a peaceful settlement of the war, listen and listen hard..

https://twitter.com/cannabisjoda/status/1736098911687692744

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/cannabisjoda/status/1736098911687692744

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile back in Russia and those expensive eggs.

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1733849609175191888

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1733849609175191888

[GlobalNav]

Ermmmm



https://twitter.com/parrot_reborn/status/1735336635242283408

​​​​​​​Cant they do anything right?

[NutLoose]

A Russian Morum surveillance complex taken out by a UFO, how they spotted it in the first place surprised me, it’s not exactly in the open.

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1736357610394140746

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1736357610394140746

[NutLoose]

The hazards of riding on top.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736321032695267746 (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736321570505650589)

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736321032695267746

[NutLoose]

A UFO attack on possibly the Russian airbase at Morozowsk, showing damage to one SU 34.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736267702304469310

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736337234465296426

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1736337234465296426

[NutLoose]

Combat footage around Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/reporting_war/status/1736278427748200546

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/reporting_war/status/1736278427748200546

[NutLoose]

The Russian Scooby Do van has gone all Shaggy.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1736245390565839148

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1736245390565839148

[NutLoose]

There is mud and there is Ukrainian mud… I truly feel for them in that weather.

https://twitter.com/reporting_war/status/1736410654649827711

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/reporting_war/status/1736410654649827711

[NutLoose]

Russian air defence are improving, they took down an SU 25, only flaw in the equation was it was one of their own.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736466148609437740

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736466148609437740

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile in Russia, one of St Petersburgs main hospitals.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736464338830176374

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736464338830176374

and massive queues at a Moscow hospital with mainly pneumonia cases.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736486881171509334

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736486881171509334

[NutLoose]

And more smoking incidents in Russia, this time regional government buildings.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736157043965460859

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736157043965460859

[NutLoose]

It appears the Russian Legion has been doing some cross border excursions again near Belogrod, all returned safely.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736469437694562317

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736469437694562317

[Winemaker]

And more smoking incidents in Russia, this time regional government buildings.



​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1736157043965460859
Add some really cold Russian weather into the mix and things will get really tough. Icing conditions indeed.

[NutLoose]

It looks like a donated British AS90 was destroyed by Lancet.

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1736467349815861616

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1736467349815861616​​​​​​​

[MJ89]

https://youtu.be/jJ9Q9fiwV3c?si=iRE9zIoP9lu9vu9q

[ORAC]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1736342094157922436?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Allegedly these are photos of a Su-34 bomber damaged by unknown drones at the Morozovsk aerodrome in Rostov Oblast last night. Message on the UAV part says "Greetings to katsaps from Yarik! [Yaroslav]"

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x804/image_84f6cac0e8ab730b80cc5b65dc3070213b62b47b.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x803/image_bb3e8ae45ad86b8d735d635a0efcc6c289d9d5c9.png

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x803/image_980798cd53c1b124645b0d1396a95428d483ff4f.png
​​​​​​​

[FUMR]

Guys, keep an eye on what others are posting. There's quite a bit of duplication going on!

[Pali]

It seems Russia scrapes the bottom of reserves. Note the destroyed tank at 2:10 time, it has white wheels. This paint scheme was typical for tanks used for military parades. Taken out of reserve and turned to scrap metal.

Warning, dead bodies in the video.

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1736517825219428533

[NutLoose]

I take it the lead tank nr Adviivka is mine sweeping

https://twitter.com/Piston711926949/status/1736435518060011845

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Piston711926949/status/1736435518060011845

[NutLoose]

Orac your last 2 posts have already been posted.

[Saab Dastard]

Guys, keep an eye on what others are posting. There's quite a bit of duplication going on!

Orac your last 2 posts have already been posted.

If you can reference the original post(s) in such alerts it would help the moderators remove duplicates.

Thanks

[NutLoose]

7198 is one. 7197 is the other.

[NutLoose]

This could be bad news..

A wiretap was found today in the office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi - RBC-Ukraine, citing sources.

​​​​​​​A wiretap was also found in the office of Konstantin Bushuyev, personal assistant to Chief Zaluzhnyi The Security Service of Ukraine is conducting an investigation.

​​​​​​​Both are on Nexta, though you would think they would use them to feed incorrect information to whoever is listening, it must also mean a high ranking Ukrainian may be working for someone else.

[NutLoose]

Russia is starting to reap what it sowed, ex prisoners returning from the front have murdered 27 so far at home.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1736698623671328833

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1736698623671328833

[NutLoose]

Belarus is still sending refugees to the Polish border.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1736709116674941086

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1736709116674941086

[DeanoP]

Post No 7217

From the lines on the back of his jacket it looks as if Putin is wearing body armour.

[Herod]

And on his arm as well, unless that's a very badly cut jacket.

[Fitter2]

If his body double needs a flak jacket, he must be really (and justifiably) worried.

[FUMR]

Body armour won't do him much good. An assassin would go for a couple of shots to the head!

[Video Mixdown]

Body armour won't do him much good. An assassin would go for a couple of shots to the head!
​​​​​​Haven't we seen that photo before? The blonde and some of the other 'soldiers' have appeared with Putin in various costumes and are believed to be bodyguards.

[Wokkafans]

​​​​​​Haven't we seen that photo before? The blonde and some of the other 'soldiers' have appeared with Putin in various costumes and are believed to be bodyguards.

Indeed we have - she's Larisa Sergukhina, a regional deputy (local politician) within Novgorod’s regional Douma (or parliament) and a member of the ruling party, United Russia. She is also a fishing entrepreneur in Novgorod.

https://nypost.com/2023/01/02/why-does-mystery-blonde-keep-popping-up-in-putin-photo-ops/

[DogTailRed2]

Running out of money?
Ukraine war: Kyiv forced to cut military operations as foreign aid dries up - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67748813)

[ORAC]

And out of artillery shells….

https://x.com/osintua/status/1736813630153437624?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tavkhellidze/status/1736737655876907496?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​”Russians in Finland to create an organization to “protect their rights.”

They will advocate for complete opening of the eastern border.

At risk of stating the obvious, you know what this means…”

[NutLoose]

Reopen the border for them, to allow them to be herded back to Russia, then close it again, sounds fair.

[ORAC]

The future of warfare….

https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1736702623674146967?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Ukrainian Media: "The Ukrainian Cobra attack drone began to be mass-produced.

The production time of one drone is 3 hours. The flight range is 300 km. Carrying capacity — 15 kg. The UAV was developed by engineers from Kryvyi Rih.

The drone has a body made of riveted steel. This technology simplified and cheapened the production of UAVs."

[Winemaker]

The future of warfare….



​​​​​​​Ukrainian Media: "The Ukrainian Cobra attack drone began to be mass-produced.

The production time of one drone is 3 hours. The flight range is 300 km. Carrying capacity — 15 kg. The UAV was developed by engineers from Kryvyi Rih.

The drone has a body made of riveted steel. This technology simplified and cheapened the production of UAVs."
Mods, if this is the wrong place to comment please move. I'm glad they are making stuff and being innovative. I was in aerospace doing composite tool design prior to my wine making life; instead of fabricating a wing with spars and ribs, maybe it might be more efficient to extrude or continuously lay up some sort of S-glass final surface and then fill with foam and chop lengths off for the wings. Lots of other thoughts about the body production. I know, they are there and I am here. Wish I could help.

[OvertHawk]

Mods, if this is the wrong place to comment please move. I'm glad they are making stuff and being innovative. I was in aerospace doing composite tool design prior to my wine making life; instead of fabricating a wing with spars and ribs, maybe it might be more efficient to extrude or continuously lay up some sort of S-glass final surface and then fill with foam and chop lengths off for the wings. Lots of other thoughts about the body production. I know, they are there and I am here. Wish I could help.

I rather think that the point is that they are working with the technology and skills that are available to them!

If sheet metal and rivets is what takes the C4 to the Russians then good on them! Build a bigger one!!

[Winemaker]

I rather think that the point is that they are working with the technology and skills that are available to them!

If sheet metal and rivets is what takes the C4 to the Russians then good on them! Build a bigger one!!
That's why I said I know, they are there and I am here. They are on the ground and know what they can do; good on them.

[NutLoose]

Plus steel will be more resilient to ground fire.

[DogTailRed2]

The future of warfare….



Ukrainian Media: "The Ukrainian Cobra attack drone began to be mass-produced.

The production time of one drone is 3 hours. The flight range is 300 km. Carrying capacity — 15 kg. The UAV was developed by engineers from Kryvyi Rih.

The drone has a body made of riveted steel. This technology simplified and cheapened the production of UAVs."
​​​​​​​Looks similar to a recon drone (well, rc aircraft) the British Army used to have in the 70's (iirc).

[ORAC]

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1737308815286997001?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Kyiv; the Ukrainian Navy has joined the air defense effort in Ukraine's capital city this winter.

Seen below, the newly-commissioned Gyurza-M-class gunboat Bucha sits on the Dnipro River, serving as an additional air defense asset for the city.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x810/image_56d2e8af3f45e685578d22e0f8be40dcf507b02f.png
​​​​​​​

[jolihokistix]

Dang, now they'll have to move it...

[NutLoose]

Several Russians soldiers spotted living in a basement, so a Bradley was despatched to run over the entrance a few times to seal them in.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737399483191689587

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737399483191689587

[NutLoose]

Now that’s what you call aid, shame it’s zero proof, but I bet the troops on the front would appreciate the odd one over Christmas.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737227572763607482

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737227572763607482

[NutLoose]

Storming a trench, Russian captured, tied up and pinned down by his ermmmm, Cat.

A quote from the thread.

The recruitment of kittens to guard prisoners is yet another evolution of warfare no-one anticipated.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737133251368534511

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737133251368534511

[NutLoose]

Anti tank mines buried on top of artillery shells fot a greater destructive force.

https://twitter.com/EL4UKR_Harley/status/1737325354010792256

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/EL4UKR_Harley/status/1737325354010792256

[Tartiflette Fan]

Several Russians soldiers spotted living in a basement, so a Bradley was despatched to run over the entrance a few times to seal them in.



https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1737399483191689587

That's rather surprising. I thought it was always a fear of armoured troops that driving over a basement would see them suddenly drop throgh the floor, not built to take the ( in this case ) 27 tonnes.

[Andrewgr2]

Anti tank mines buried on top of artillery shells fot a greater destructive force.



https://twitter.com/EL4UKR_Harley/status/1737325354010792256
​​​​​​​Perhaps all that the shells shipped from North Korea are good for?

[DogTailRed2]

That's rather surprising. I thought it was always a fear of armoured troops that driving over a basement would see them suddenly drop throgh the floor, not built to take the ( in this case ) 27 tonnes.
Yes but maybe this crew didn't read that book. I also thought it would make the Bradley a nice target for a belly attack but perhaps I've been reading too many comics?.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Yes but maybe this crew didn't read that book. I also thought it would make the Bradley a nice target for a belly attack but perhaps I've been reading too many comics?.

1) Back-blast
2) Beams and rubble preventing damage to AFV
3) Explosion likely fatal to basement anyway.

[RedToo]

Anders Puck Nielsen on Russia's 'meatwave' tactics. As usual thoughtful and persuasive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ZPbnVqHrY

[The Helpful Stacker]

Anti tank mines buried on top of artillery shells fot a greater destructive force.



https://twitter.com/EL4UKR_Harley/status/1737325354010792256

The Serbs used to do similar things in Bosnia.

If anyone remembers the wired and sandbagged off plum orchard at GV (Tomato Factory) many of the mines buried in there were laid similar to this.

The Serbs also had a habit of fitting anti-tank mines with anti-personnel fuses in such places too, so that any children who tripped them whilst desperately searching for food would be pretty much vaporised rather than "just" killed.

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[RedToo]

Scary thought:


http://https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/v369/RedToo/20231220_122825.jpg (https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/v369/RedToo/20231220_122825.jpg)

[GeeRam]

Scary thought:


http://https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/v369/RedToo/20231220_122825.jpg (https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/v369/RedToo/20231220_122825.jpg)

And **if** that did happen, with Hungary and now Slovakia have a pro-Kremlin Govt in place, if they decided to withdrawn from NATO, Russia could drive a big wedge into the side of NATO and almost split it in two.

[Ninthace]

I remember the Warsaw Pact - in those days they were much closer, halfway across Germany, in fact.

[henra]

I remember the Warsaw Pact - in those days they were much closer, halfway across Germany, in fact.
Yeah. Indeed funny to see what makes people panic these days. Fulda Gap was about two hours drive from where I grew up. And part of the family have lived 10 miles from the Iron curtain. And ten million+ troops in Wasaw pact being on the other side of the fence back in the day.
To me the real worry is the Russian Forces getting entangled with NATO and being erased within a couple of days and they having to go nuclear to prvent final extinction.

[henra]

And **if** that did happen, with Hungary and now Slovakia have a pro-Kremlin Govt in place, if they decided to withdrawn from NATO, Russia could drive a big wedge into the side of NATO and almost split it in two.
I don't think they on their own want to withdraw from NATO. Hungary is solidly arming up. They don't trust good ol' Vlad. Even if politically Orban is heading in a somewhat similar direction. But he doesn't want to be Vlad's slave. They are significantly affected by the embargoes against Russia and regarding Ukraine are probably concerned about potentially a 45 Million people of cheap labour entering EU and finishing off their Business model. But I'm sure they won't leave NATO on their own.

[NutLoose]

Slovakia might have a pro Government, but looking at the Ukrainian support in cities around the country they might have difficulties going all in with Putin.
Although someone says it was.

the protest was organized by the opposition against the abolition of the Special Prosecutor's Office, which oversees high-level corruption

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1737372199525249367

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1737372199525249367

[NutLoose]

Ok can anyone figure this out? All I can come up with is to disguise the fact that it isn’t seriously damaged, but to make it appear so too prevent further attacks.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Donetsk&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

https://twitter.com/search?q=Donetsk&src=trend_click&vertical=trends