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Southampton-3

Old 29th Nov 2023, 07:47
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Originally Posted by SouthernAlliance
Guess the only hope is EZY may add a little more frequency to their new summer routes
You can be sure the limited that are already on sale will be snapped up damn quick!

Last edited by SKOJB; 29th Nov 2023 at 08:03.
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Old 29th Nov 2023, 09:48
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The cost of establishing a new base is considerable, not to mention the forward planning required. Southampton will have to play this one carefully. These new routes for S24 are the best way of testing, experiencing and adapting the market to their brand. S25 will be here before we know it, and if next summer is a success, considered, appropriate expansion will take place. Chucking a 3 aircraft base at it this early on is too risky. There is Loganair to consider. Were easyJet to start double daily or more EDI/GLA flights for example, which would be likely, then you oust Loganair somewhat. Suddenly SOU is back to relying heavily on one carrier.

Growth will occur at SOU, but it needs to be at the right time, and on the appropriate scale.

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Old 29th Nov 2023, 10:30
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Originally Posted by Rivet Joint
Exactly the point I was originally making and which had been misconstrued as usual.

On one hand we have the usual suspects saying simply the curfew in isolation will prevent a low cost operator ever moving in and now the same people are saying such operators arenít really fussy and are happy with just a runway and a shed. Contradiction much?

To make money at their margins everything has to be run like a well oiled machine with assets making money as much as possible. I seem to be one of the few supporters of SOU on here but I have the sense to appreciate that it currently struggles to serve 2 a320s at the same time. Many improvements are still no doubt needed be it larger security areas, terminal space for many hundreds more people to sit somewhere, more airside equipment like tugs, even the taxiway to reduce the time backtracking etc etc.

Regardless of the level of frequency if you told me last year SOU would now have EZY serving 6 routes Iíd say thatís a great start. Iíve heard the domestic routes are nearly full which speaks volumes about the untapped market locally for cheap flights. A lot of these are people who are unlikely to ever pay LMs prices and frequency clearly isnít an issue either. Exciting times but yes letís moan moan moan.
Iíve never regarded the curfew as being something that automatically rules SOU out as an LCC base. That said, I donít see SOU being an easyJet base, at least anytime soon, but remember that much of the EJU base network have to adhere to strict curfews.
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 02:40
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Latest developments

It is good to see some of the 'promised' developments coming to fruition, even if it is on a small scale for the time being. Even with BA cutbacks the difference in aircraft size alone means the introduction of easyJet represents a fairly significant increase in capacity to the likes of Alicante, Faro and Palma. I'm a little less sure on the domestic routes, probably a feeling that has shared by some on here. I hope for the Glasgow route there is a happy medium where Loganair can operate a frequent and consistent service aimed at business travellers and easyJet will fly a ~daily service directed at leisure traffic, and likely also filling a gap for an out-based aircraft, hopefully without trashing the yields of their competitor too much. As has been seen at the likes of Birmingham with easyJet, as soon as there is no competition on a domestic route it seems to slip well down their list of priorities.

It's a tricky situation for the airport, as they have to balance incentivising easyJet to start routes and grow at the airport, without risking decimating their existing airline portfolio. Indeed I do hope that the 'Flybe effect' remains fresh in the minds of the people in charge, as it would be a real shame to see the airport being too reliant on a single airline again. For what it's worth, I'm in the camp that believes that there won't be an easyJet base at Southampton anytime soon, but I am optimistic that an increase in non-based flying will result if the current routes perform well.

Regarding the Belfast route, I'm a little more optimistic about this one. Aer Lingus Regional compete with easyJet on many of their Belfast City - UK routes, mostly indirectly with easyJet flying to International. There should be a clearer balance of the 'value' easyJet option and the more business oriented (in schedule and arrival airport) Aer Lingus one. I expect the economics of flying an ATR 72 vs a 319/320 also stack up a fair bit better than even a fully paid off ERJ145!

Regarding the return of the Manchester route, it appears from the Manchester S24 ACL report that Loganair hold slots for 2x daily flights throughout the season. I guess we will see if this comes to anything soon...

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...I0NWQwYjY3YiJ9
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 06:54
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Originally Posted by cavokblues
New route from easyJet: PMI twice per week for the summer from 2nd May.
Nice flight times if you go Mon to Thu.
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 13:58
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Originally Posted by adfly
It is good to see some of the 'promised' developments coming to fruition, even if it is on a small scale for the time being. Even with BA cutbacks the difference in aircraft size alone means the introduction of easyJet represents a fairly significant increase in capacity to the likes of Alicante, Faro and Palma. I'm a little less sure on the domestic routes, probably a feeling that has shared by some on here. I hope for the Glasgow route there is a happy medium where Loganair can operate a frequent and consistent service aimed at business travellers and easyJet will fly a ~daily service directed at leisure traffic, and likely also filling a gap for an out-based aircraft, hopefully without trashing the yields of their competitor too much. As has been seen at the likes of Birmingham with easyJet, as soon as there is no competition on a domestic route it seems to slip well down their list of priorities.

It's a tricky situation for the airport, as they have to balance incentivising easyJet to start routes and grow at the airport, without risking decimating their existing airline portfolio. Indeed I do hope that the 'Flybe effect' remains fresh in the minds of the people in charge, as it would be a real shame to see the airport being too reliant on a single airline again. For what it's worth, I'm in the camp that believes that there won't be an easyJet base at Southampton anytime soon, but I am optimistic that an increase in non-based flying will result if the current routes perform well.

Regarding the Belfast route, I'm a little more optimistic about this one. Aer Lingus Regional compete with easyJet on many of their Belfast City - UK routes, mostly indirectly with easyJet flying to International. There should be a clearer balance of the 'value' easyJet option and the more business oriented (in schedule and arrival airport) Aer Lingus one. I expect the economics of flying an ATR 72 vs a 319/320 also stack up a fair bit better than even a fully paid off ERJ145!

Regarding the return of the Manchester route, it appears from the Manchester S24 ACL report that Loganair hold slots for 2x daily flights throughout the season. I guess we will see if this comes to anything soon...

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...I0NWQwYjY3YiJ9
Further to my post #2454 and the above slots listed for LM MAN x 2 daily, that could also yield circa 50k pa in pax numbers, add that to the 900k previously predicted plus Sept 24 - Dec 24 EZY seats and the magical 1m barrier looks very likely with the airport I would suggest well on its way to break even!
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:08
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Originally Posted by SouthernAlliance
Further to my post #2454 and the above slots listed for LM MAN x 2 daily, that could also yield circa 50k pa in pax numbers, add that to the 900k previously predicted plus Sept 24 - Dec 24 EZY seats and the magical 1m barrier looks very likely with the airport I would suggest well on its way to break even!
Things have changed since those slots were applied for - are LM likely to launch a route now to an EZY base?
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:33
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BA flips and then flops at SOU

Sadly BA's inroads to SOU totally ''Dropped the Ball'' because they had planned the SOU start-up just as that Pesky Flu kicked in so the whole program was royally screwed for the first season, then set back another year with stop-starting all summer 2021, with no real fan fare made to the wider audiences such as, Joe Public, the local Press and TV/Radio, and even the local and wider area Travel Agents and the Tour Operators.
Only TUI holidays took advantage and ended up using BACF for their 2 x weekly PMI Charters (a sell out for summers 2022/2023) and TUI also bought in more seats on the 3 x weekly Scheduled BA flights (of which 2 are now canned for next summer - just great!,
So now EZY pops in, well I never LOL, told you so LOL)

If you don't market your product properly then no one will buy it....
BA's flights from SOU was very much only for ''those in the know'' hence the flip, and then complete flop we now see....


I agree Operational costs are high for the summer weekend program of W flights in and out of LCY, however BACF did it for years from GLA EDI ABZ IOM HUY etc etc and now from JER GCI NCL and the IOM to many leisure destinations...all sells out - why?
because the Locals are ALL behind it .....

So, who's in charge of the clattering train at SOU and at BA?
Tis simply not enough to have a little Twitter X, and a Facebook account thinking that will fill a summer season of holiday jets , coz it won't!

I loved BA's flights from SOU but sure enough one by one, they all got canned, or were ''never rans''.

Honestly sometimes I feel I could run that place standing on my head, in my sleep.....Hey Ho.

Remember Skiathos and that debacle....
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:40
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Aren't the other BACF regional flights mainly sold through Tour Operators?
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:43
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Aren't the other BACF regional flights mainly sold through Tour Operators?
Yes, correct they are,
hence my sentence above re no joined up thinking at BA and at SOU....(missed opportunity yet again)
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:49
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Things have changed since those slots were applied for - are LM likely to launch a route now to an EZY base?
I can see how Loganair's frustration at the easyJet competition on the Glasgow route may undermine their motivation to expand further at SOU. However as much as I've seen some people say it, I would be very surprised is easyJet were interested in operating MAN-SOU. They seem to stay away from most short overland domestic routes - i.e. LGW-MAN. I also suspect there is a fair bit less leisure traffic than there is heading up to Scotland, which must make the route less appealing operated with anything less than a schedule allowing a day return.
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:53
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Originally Posted by adfly
I can see how Loganair's frustration at the easyJet competition on the Glasgow route may undermine their motivation to expand further at SOU. However as much as I've seen some people say it, I would be very surprised is easyJet were interested in operating MAN-SOU. They seem to stay away from most short overland domestic routes - i.e. LGW-MAN. I also suspect there is a fair bit less leisure traffic than there is heading up to Scotland, which must make the route less appealing operated with anything less than a schedule allowing a day return.
Would you gamble your money on launching a service that may well get jumped on?!
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 14:59
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Would you gamble your money on launching a service that may get well get jumped on?!
Incredible to think this route was the airports biggest pre Covid of over 200k annually!
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:11
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TBH I think EZY could make a go of the MAN if it was timed right - Folk hate the trains, it's a half days drive and the business locally and cruises are picking up
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:16
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Originally Posted by SouthernAlliance
Incredible to think this route was the airports biggest pre Covid of over 200k annually!
Then with this in mind ,why is still not served?
Or is there more to.it then this?
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:18
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Originally Posted by RW20
Then with this in mind ,why is still not served?
Or is there more to.it then this?
No idea, just stating a fact
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:19
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Originally Posted by rog747
TBH I think EZY could make a go of the MAN if it was timed right - Folk hate the trains, it's a half days drive and the business locally and cruises are picking up
But are EZY really going to sacrifice 2x daily prime slots at MAN to operate an SOU service when they could be used for higher demand/yield flights elsewhere (for an A319/20 sized aircraft)? Happy to be proven wrong but I personally really can't see it happening. In terms of your point regarding the demand for SOU-MAN I agree, that train 'service' is truly awful but I see it being more likely one served on a regional aircraft.

One thing Loganair could also have in their favour is they have a few partnerships with long haul airlines, so there is potential to capture a little connecting traffic as well, rather like Flybe used to (but at a much smaller scale).
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:20
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Originally Posted by RW20
Then with this in mind ,why is still not served?
Or is there more to.it then this?
Well, Flybe went, Covid came, everyone stayed in on their fat arses and did not work in the office or go to any Business meetings, so that sort of travel for work had all faded away...
Only now I do see things picking up again whereby we could see MAN again from SOU, and I think EZY may well have a go if they time it 'proper' lol.
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:26
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Originally Posted by adfly
But are EZY really going to sacrifice 2x daily prime slots at MAN to operate an SOU service when they could be used for higher demand/yield flights elsewhere (for an A319/20 sized aircraft)? Happy to be proven wrong but I personally really can't see it happening. In terms of your point regarding the demand for SOU-MAN I agree, that train 'service' is truly awful but I see it being more likely one served on a regional aircraft.
Indeed, but Demand and Yield are 2 differing beasts.

You can fill any old plane with seats at £19 (186 of them if you fancy, but do you make any money ? versus the Operational costs etc v.v when flying a quick SOU and back, or a 10-11 hour day to TFS or RHO and back on just one rotation...(and add in the 'seasonal' factors too, whereas MAN was, and could be again year round)

Sorry Darlings, but this is way ABOVE my pay grade on here, but I am sure you know what I mean, and get the picture.
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Old 30th Nov 2023, 15:29
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Summer season from MAN must be tempting for any prospective airline what with the numerous daily cruise departures. I cruised recently and the amount of passengers that had flown in from BHD to embark the ship so you would imagine some demand also coming from the north west.
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