Manchester-3

[laviation]

I am the poster from the other forum. I agree with all your points made. I don’t think this is necessarily an issue with solely the routes team, as proof is in the pudding - they went out to China to try and convince Hainan to restore the full daily schedule and exactly that happened (I would imagine they also met with China Eastern & Juneyao as both carriers purportedly aspire to launch Shanghai). What I was told is that relationships with a number of airlines (whether ‘a lot’ may be an exaggeration - not sure of the exact number) were peeved off around Covid time. I think it’s mainly an issue of MAN simply not putting the effort in to repair these relationships / forge new ones since Covid.

The ‘failure’ to woo over United and especially Air India within the last 18 months is quite surprising, honestly. I don’t think it’s an issue of MAN having no pull - I think it’s an issue of not actively pursuing services as may have been done in the past. EDI have been a model example as they have done remarkably well especially going East.

Given the known success of the recent China trip., I think trips to the US and India should be arranged asap.


I must however state that the extent of these supposed issues may not be as widespread as I hear ‘through the grapevine’ and I have only heard specific details about United - but the apparent consensus is that certainly a few airlines have had a break down in relations with the airport, however given the ‘underperformances’ of the last few years I can believe such a claim.

I have requested for the original posts to be removed, as they were poorly worded and could potentially be misleading if what was posted is not 100%

[OzzyOzBorn]

laviation - Many thanks for making yourself known and elaborating on your comments made earlier on the other forum. I didn't want to presume your consent to being named on here, but appreciate your willingness to join the conversation.

I do wish to re-emphasise that I have no beef with the routes team and their new figurehead. Quite the contrary, I believe that it is their overly-prolonged post-covid furlough absence which sewed the seeds of the current malaise. The new face of MAN must be afforded time to forge relationships with existing and prospective partner carriers. But most importantly, he and his team must be fully-empowered to offer industry-competitive terms to bring in new business. That requires authorisation from the top. And MAN must be prepared to bite the bullet and incentivise some 'restored' routes as if they were completely new. They'll have to share the financial burden of building back.

SWBKCB - You are correct in pointing out that US point-of-sale remains prioritised at the present time. But the USDX (US Dollar Index) is now well off its recent highs and is forecast to weaken further by respected analysts. And in the specific case of the United Airlines MAN-EWR route, the company has access to years of data confirming just how successful that route was prior to the covid suspension (withdrawal?). Business travel is down, not gone. Leisure travel from the UK is down, not gone. But also gone is the majority of MAN's pre-covid Transatlantic capacity, specifically due to the collapse of Thomas Cook, slashed capacity from Virgin, and the non-restoration of services by US carriers. It should be beyond doubt that UAL can successfully relaunch MAN-EWR against the backdrop of relatively little alternative capacity having been restored to the MAN-US market.

I do endorse your comment implying that MAN enjoys less appeal than some competing destinations in the eyes of US-domiciled leisure customers. However, a good proportion of this market is VFR. If their roots and surviving relatives are here, this is where they want to visit. And Manchester's offer of music, football, foodie-culture and industrial heritage is actually quite trendy at the moment. Well-known US travel magazines have featured Manchester as a top pick over recent months. We're not Paris or Barcelona, but there is a product to be offered. Manchester is at the centre of a region boasting multiple world-class tourist attractions. More promotion of these internationally could deliver dividends.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Brevity is truly a lost art.....
Isn't another view that with rapid demographic change running rampant despite the "Conservative" Party's best efforts, that future long haul growth out of MAN may well not be West at all? Look at Saudia and Air India into BHX, the changes in our society are becoming more and more apparent. Glory days may well
lie ahead, just not to the US or Canada.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Is a jibe about 'Brevity' your best shot? I expect better from you, Skip.

The reason my post focuses on Transatlantic business is because this and England / Scotland domestic are the two outstanding areas of weak performance in MAN's post-covid portfolio. One addresses weaknesses where they arise.

PIA have been quite open in confirming that they aim to resume MAN services when safety authorisations permit. That process will take as long as it takes. It is regrettable that the Jet Airways schedule has not been backfilled following that carrier's demise, but the issue dates back well beyond covid. Virgin Atlantic plans to serve Pakistan and India from MAN were curtailed by the need to redeploy B789's to safeguard valuable LHR slots. These issues are out of MAG's hands.

Eastbound long-haul has generally rebounded strongly at MAN post-covid. Emirates is back 100% with 21/7 A388 services; Qatar will soon be back at 21/7 frequency as well. Etihad is operating one daily rather than two, but using high-capacity B77W equipment. Gulf Air, Saudia and Kuwait Airways are present and growing. EgyptAir is back, Ethiopian adding frequencies and using larger A359 equipment. Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific are on course to reach pre-covid frequencies. Hainan Airlines has a roadmap to reach daily frequencies again. Bangladesh Biman operates 3/7 with the B788. TUI operates eastbound leisure flights serving Goa and cruise destinations. The most notable absentee is Oman Air, but their business model has changed so they may not be back any time soon. In essence, there is no eastbound long-haul capacity crunch at MAN. New services would be welcome - especially to India - but customers can reach there from MAN using the Middle East carriers or Turkish Airlines and Pegasus.

There is no crisis eastbound. Westbound is different. Transatlantic capacity from MAN is down by around 50% since 2019. That is why my comments focus on this market in particular.

[Rutan16]

Back on 30th October i posted this on that other forum and my concerns remain unanswered

Potentially shines even more light and urgency for MAG

Were reading the “temporary” post Brexit US-UK aviation arrangements in the middle of the night - Insomnia change of clocks, and an anxiety (Joining a new business venture on Wednesday!)attack.

Sad I know

Its actually quite disturbing in some aspects as it most certainly NOT an Openskys agreement or even a continuation of the EU- US treaties.

Indeed at its core much is a restoration of prior UK- US arrangements some dating back as far as 1976 - - - -Financial and transfers/fund repatriation and the indeed the Bermuda 2 agreement!

With the exception of the limited Heathrow access that existed through - ThIs has been lined through I see !

The disturbing part is it implies age old regional airports and nominated status rules may have been restored as a bi-product but only on the UK end !

Unless a more effective variation and full treaty is quickly negotiated this will absolutely disadvantage Manchester in particular.

One can remember Manchester was never designated as a point of entry for any US carriers , but rather only UK ones .

American operated on a rolling variation and temporary license for many years before that changed.

And only the EU-US deal resulted in totally liberalisation.

The named point of entry for US carriers was Prestwick however amendments were to change that and Edinburgh is that designated airport today.

I think MAG Group should be seriously concerned and need to be lobbying the CAA as a matter of urgency, indeed have they NOT even read the arrangement

To an extent it shines a light on United Airlines position in particular _I have no doubt their legal teams are fully briefed on the implications ,much more so than a typical British minster at any rate.

Thoughts of a now exhausted old man

[OzzyOzBorn]

Interesting stuff. Looks like MAG have their homework assignment. It would be interesting to learn Mr Woodroofe's take on this.

EDIT: I think that it is the Department for Transport (DfT), not the CAA, which deals with aviation bilaterals.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Rutan16
The effective impact of all of this on MAN is what exactly? You seem to imply that only EDI is a designated Scottish airport which is going to be news to GLA.
Did you mean to suggest Bermuda II has been restored? That's obviously not true in whole, if it were, Delta wouldn't be permitted to fly out of LHR.
I think the management team at MAN might have read the agreement, I really think someone in their legal and risk team would have been on the ball, and if not at MAN, then GLA.

[Navpi]

Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot

Rutan16
The effective impact of all of this on MAN is what exactly? You seem to imply that only EDI is a designated Scottish airport which is going to be news to GLA.
Did you mean to suggest Bermuda II has been restored? That's obviously not true in whole, if it were, Delta wouldn't be permitted to fly out of LHR.
I think the management team at MAN might have read the agreement, I really think someone in their legal and risk team would have been on the ball, and if not at MAN, then GLA.

Oh my goodness if we have to spell this out to an analyst such as yourself Skip we really are in deep water in terms of reasoned debate on this forum.

Rutan is saying that "henceforth" MAN would not be a designated UK entry point for new applicant's, i suspect there is probably little they can do regarding services already in situ.

Now wouldn't that suit LHR down to the ground.

"Back in time to the seventies" Trebles all round....!

Does this explain why MAN has become a no fly zone for US airlines despite the highest ever loadings across UK US routes in 2023 ?

We know the xxxxs in Whitehall are not pre disposed to assisting any organisation within England outside the M25 and with a prickly ex Labour MP as Mayor of Manchester they won't be fixing this in a hurry.

As Ossy says it is the Dft who issue licences.

Back in 1976 and beforehand applicants to serve Manchester were routinely thrown out.

It was LHR, PWK or nothing.

It was an absurd situation.

It is why we talk in reverential terms about former CEO Gil Thompson as he managed to unpick those regulations and brought this inequality to a wider audience, he embarrassed Margaret Thatcher to the point where in fainess she actually eventually agreed.

If we now add in the mix the perception of inertia in the MAN Routes Development Team which has evolved whilst Cornish was on watch, well sadly, you have all the ingredients of a status quo.

If we have had interim lightweights supported by interns and 6th formers at the helm in the MAN Routes Department over the last 2 years as MAN juggled its top team, rather than stratergists with cunning and guile (as we had in the eighties) it's no wonder we are in trouble

Our previous routes manager was well connected, highly regarded and got things done..... the seeds laid pre covid have bourne fruit as those incumbents who suspended services over the pandemic Eastbound have returned. See Oct pax lvls.

There as been much "back slapping" on Linkedin regarding the latest PR and MANs return to pre covid traffic levels, but lets get real , those services and their return have been driven by the airlines not some beacon of light from within MAG shining a light on new destinations.

It is not new growth but simply a return of old services which would for the most part would have happened anyway.

The new management structure led by CW now has to prove itself in this area as it has done in customer service where the transformation has been meteoric.

Yes the new manager has to be given a chance, but CW doesn’t strike me as someone who will hang about.

[SWBKCB]

Aren't mega corporations like United data driven rather than being swayed by the charmers in route development teams?

[Flightrider]

There is nothing in the UK/US bilateral arrangements which would prevent carriers from either side launching new services tomorrow if they wished. Everyone is getting worked up about something that isn’t real.

The greater issue is short term capacity given move of T1 and T3 carriers into T2 from 2025.

That’s not an issue for United who showed no inclination to return to MAN.

Short term, return of US carriers is less likely. With a strong bias to US point of sale given the exchange rates, they are focusing on destinations like Edinburgh, Lisbon and even Faro. MAN is a much stronger UK originating market and that sector is currently not where it once was, given exchange rates.

If the exchange rate moves, so will some of the services. This notion that the bilateral is blocking MAN development is fanciful. If you need it proving beyond all doubt, those in Manchester should write to their MPs, ask them to table parliamentary questions to the DFT and confirm this answer on record.

[Navpi]

‘It would take a fool to say Manchester wasn’t a city going places,’ says United Airlines director

“We don’t do this for fun...we do it because it makes a return and why does it make a return? because we are providing a service in a market that needs it and wants it”

United Airlines UK Manager addressing the Manchester chamber of commerce pre pandemic.
Bob Schumacher. 2017

"We’ve got a long history of connections as Bob mentioned... 1.6m people have passed through our doors in Manchester flying to North America and half a million people are flying to New York, but we fly to 10 airports in North America and we are flying the largest network in the UK outside of London to North America"
Tricia Williams Former MAG spokeperson, same conference

-------------------------------------------------------

The market has surely not evaporated on exchange rates alone ?

------------------------------------------------
As for your second point, I'm astounded.

"The greater issue is short term capacity given move of T1 and T3 carriers into T2 on 2025.

Really so can we expect the 4 now 5 JET2 units lost to Liverpool to return in 2025 ?

Its like a manager at ASDA saying to his customers we are doing a bit of renovation so you can't shop with us at the moment. The customer is somewhat peeed off so goes to ALDI where they are welcomed with open arms.

ASDA re open in 2025 but guess what the customers have all gone somewhere else !!!

[Flightrider]

It hasn’t “evaporated” but has reduced in size and airlines can make more money flying their aeroplanes somewhere else. If the MAN crows could look past narrow conspiracy theories about London always doing the north down for even half a second, you’d see that with United, they have chosen to add service from Newark to Nice, Naples, Faro and Malaga for S24. American has gone to Copenhagen, Nice and Naples (they’ll be busy). JetBlue has gone to Edinburgh and Dublin


Any of that capacity could theoretically have come to MAN. None of it has. The airlines are concluding there is more money to be made elsewhere.

[Flightrider]

And by the way, the Jet2 aircraft going into LPL for S24 aren’t “yours” (meaning MAN’s). They’re Jet2’s to put wherever they believe they can achieve the best return with them.

[SWBKCB]

And in the specific case of the United Airlines MAN-EWR route, the company has access to years of data confirming just how successful that route was prior to the covid suspension (withdrawal?).

“We don’t do this for fun...we do it because it makes a return and why does it make a return? because we are providing a service in a market that needs it and wants it”

If we have had interim lightweights supported by interns and 6th formers at the helm in the MAN Routes Department over the last 2 years as MAN juggled its top team, rather than strategists with cunning and guile (as we had in the eighties) it's no wonder we are in trouble

Our previous routes manager was well connected, highly regarded and got things done..... the seeds laid pre covid have bourne fruit as those incumbents who suspended services over the pandemic Eastbound have returned. See Oct pax lvls.

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense - if the right money was to be made, United would be there. Doubt they are flying elsewhere because the others answered the phone quicker

[Navpi]

Originally Posted by Flightrider

And by the way, the Jet2 aircraft going into LPL for S24 aren’t “yours” (meaning MAN’s). They’re Jet2’s to put wherever they believe they can achieve the best return with them.

So in one breath Jet2 have made a "strategic decison " to open a 5 unit base at Liverpool based presumbly on a ROI at Liverpool ( as indeed UA have done operating to DUB , EDI etc etc.... )

This despite the fact Manchester and Liverpool are in an identical demographic market.

In effect our best customer has opened up 28 miles down the road serviing the same customer base.

.... in the prevous post you said growth at Manchester is only temporarily resticted due to WIP capacity.

So thats fine Jet2 will be back in 18 months ?

Which is it ?

[Flightrider]

On the basis that Jet2 announced the LPL growth many months before Summer 2024 slot allocations became known only recently, they’ve chosen to grow at Liverpool on its own merits.

And as United didn’t even request at MAN, they clearly aren’t interested. Constraints don’t stop airlines from doing something they weren’t going to do anyway.

Given the litigious nature of the US carriers (just look at JetBlue at AMS) then you can be certain that if some barrier in either the bilateral or slot allocations stood in the way of them flying to MAN, we’d all know about it. There would be calls for BA to be banned from serving ****sville Arizona as their new US arrival point, Virgin to be barred from launching MAN-LAS and the whole nine yards. But no. The US carriers are not interested right now. That may change with time.

[laviation]

I know the same things were said this time last year, but I would expect (with good confidence - although at least two of these airlines have been billed for launches in 2023 and 24 yet never occurred) at least one US carrier in S25. Possibly even four.

One has MAN literally right up the top of their ‘next destinations’ list, another is claiming ‘aircraft shortages’ however should not be too long before any issues are remedied, three is a bit uncertain, but I have heard a date of June 2025 for this carrier. Last but least likely, the fourth carrier could make an appearance in order to assist expansion from an existing incumbent carrier.

[chaps1954]

As is common knowlege United at present don`t have the aircraft for Manchester as the 757 are going and were not fit for purpose and A321 are coming soon and the 767 were same number of seats but were to high on premium classes and American are in same position.

[CabinCrewe]

but with reductions and cancelled routes elsewhere they still had aircraft to launch eg Faro. I do not see a sudden flurry of TA route launches to MAN just when a few A321s come online. If its all about outbound American leisure focussed, I don’t really see MAN filling that brief currently.

[Rutan16]

Originally Posted by Flightrider

It hasn’t “evaporated” but has reduced in size and airlines can make more money flying their aeroplanes somewhere else. If the MAN crows could look past narrow conspiracy theories about London always doing the north down for even half a second, you’d see that with United, they have chosen to add service from Newark to Nice, Naples, Faro and Malaga for S24. American has gone to Copenhagen, Nice and Naples (they’ll be busy). JetBlue has gone to Edinburgh and Dublin


Any of that capacity could theoretically have come to MAN. None of it has. The airlines are concluding there is more money to be made elsewhere.

None of that disproves the potential oversight . All EU -US points REMAIN OPENSKYS, Americans are cruise worshippers queue those points, and Edinburgh a dedicated US entry point for rules prior.

I accept the current effects of dollar/pound ratios and the general economic malaise within the wider UK economy especially prevalent in the regions where manufacturing work ratios are higher .

Skip can you perhaps rephrase the earliest slightly racist comment re changes in societal attitudes and norms .

Remember Manchester has been connected on a near daily basis to New York ( caveat a 2 year break on the collapse of Laker - even that period covered by KT charters to Newark) since 1957 ! - Longer than most other European cities of its size including many capitals.

I am also not the least implying that Edinburgh hasn’t /doesn’t deserve their valuable bounty albeit heavily seasonal( yes is increasing in length sure)

If there is this potential and legal barrier right now as Navi says NASA we have a problem because that makes Manchester or indeed Birmingham so much easier to fail first principle risk analysis whatever the potential revenue figures might otherwise suggest down the line.

At this point that’s where MAG development team MUST interdict and support , rather than ignore calls. If that is where the team have been for the last few years its a gross dereliction of duty to the shareholders and things including people regrettably must Change !

As for aircraft shortages at United well aware of that in relation to the 321XLR deliveries and schedules - Simply won’t be on estate in any numbers before late spring 2025 anyway.

Even before reading the document referred to I expected nothing before June 2025 anyway.
To some extent I remain optimistic that timeframe is achievable , caveat clarity on the agreement between the UK and US authorities meantime.

If those potential issues aren’t ironed out you can forget it and those frames will be deployed elsewhere. I am also not sure of the rate and how many will initially replace the remaining 757 frames on existing routes before capacity is available for meaningful expansion.

Same could be applied to American from Philadelphia.

As for Delta expect further leverage of Virgin Atlantic into the mid term and I do expect a further west coast route to be restored at some point .

Big question is probably Boston widget or Red tail or more likely Clover ☘️