Manchester-3
I repeat my earlier comment. There is no barrier in the bilateral to any carrier of either side launching more transatlantic services from MAN. Waste all the time you want on this hypothesis but it’s not the case.
So if the airlines aren’t coming l, but have the equipment to launch other routes in the meantime, MAN has not made it to the top of their list of things to do with the assets they have. That will change over time - even if some of the things they are doing don’t work as expected, which could be the case with the pile-on of capacity into Nice, Naples or even Edinburgh.
So if the airlines aren’t coming l, but have the equipment to launch other routes in the meantime, MAN has not made it to the top of their list of things to do with the assets they have. That will change over time - even if some of the things they are doing don’t work as expected, which could be the case with the pile-on of capacity into Nice, Naples or even Edinburgh.
Rutan - which document are you referring to and which part of it in particular?
This seems to be the current one - see article 11 in particular?
Air Transport Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the United States of America
This seems to be the current one - see article 11 in particular?
Air Transport Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the United States of America
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: London
Posts: 837
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I repeat my earlier comment. There is no barrier in the bilateral to any carrier of either side launching more transatlantic services from MAN. Waste all the time you want on this hypothesis but it’s not the case.
So if the airlines aren’t coming l, but have the equipment to launch other routes in the meantime, MAN has not made it to the top of their list of things to do with the assets they have. That will change over time - even if some of the things they are doing don’t work as expected, which could be the case with the pile-on of capacity into Nice, Naples or even Edinburgh.
So if the airlines aren’t coming l, but have the equipment to launch other routes in the meantime, MAN has not made it to the top of their list of things to do with the assets they have. That will change over time - even if some of the things they are doing don’t work as expected, which could be the case with the pile-on of capacity into Nice, Naples or even Edinburgh.
Again right now we simply do not have an open skies style arrangement that’s the unpalatable fact.
And again if you read what I said further I don’t expect any US carrier to enter the market before 2025 and then only if the UK and US do complete on a truly comprehensive agreement for multiple years ahead .
My concern here is that had it not been the consequence of the EU-US agreement the UK historical stances weren’t exactly productive were they ?
It was the UK as a bargaining chip that held and restricted access to Heathrow for the US carriers for years, with a demand for cabotage and an increase in external holdings of US carriers.
BA in particular lobbied both side of the Atlantic for the foreign ownership limits to be raised to 49% _ Still isn’t today !
Yet no reciprocity to be seen -Queue Virgin Atlantic !
That same legacy meant American had to re apply on a temporary rollover for authority to continue to operate AA54/55 for years on end.
Never in a million years would that get approved by the representatives on Constitution Avenue.
Government agencies across the world continue to determine aviation policy, when where and how many seats may be sold ( India dreadful policy on seat caps). The few regional opensky style treaties remain exceptional.
The industry is therefore not a free for all run entirely on market forces even today.
Rutan16 Said "Skip can you perhaps rephrase the earliest slightly racist comment re changes in societal attitudes and norms ." WTAF?
Accusing someone of racism is a serious matter not to be taken lightly, this isn't a school playground. So let me remind you of the "terrible" thing said.
I said : "Isn't another view that with rapid demographic change running rampant despite the "Conservative" Party's best efforts, that future long haul growth out of MAN may well not be West at all? Look at Saudia and Air India into BHX, the changes in our society are becoming more and more apparent. Glory days may well
lie ahead, just not to the US or Canada."
I made no comment on attitdes at all! I presented an objective measure with no underlying sentiment. The population split of the area is moving quickly towards a smaller % white British and population growth is coming from new immigrant communities who still believe in having kids, we've given up! Hence over time, the overall % of long haul going West will likely fall as people travel East to reconnect or visit family. If you can't see that, or deal with it, and shriek "racist" when presented with the most basic of trends, then maybe debate isn't for you. These boards remain some of the more calm and thoughtful on the internet, let's try and keep it that way, and not yell "FIRE" when we disagree.
There's a reason that Emirates sent the A380 to MAN so early on before many other traditional European capitals, embrace that, deny it, the choice is yours. But this isn't the world of Gil Thomson anymore, for better or worse. Stop trying to turn the clock back, there's bigger opportunities elsewhere it seems to me.
As for the guys involved in secret squirrel conversations who say "Airline A is a cert for 2025" well we hear this annually.....
Accusing someone of racism is a serious matter not to be taken lightly, this isn't a school playground. So let me remind you of the "terrible" thing said.
I said : "Isn't another view that with rapid demographic change running rampant despite the "Conservative" Party's best efforts, that future long haul growth out of MAN may well not be West at all? Look at Saudia and Air India into BHX, the changes in our society are becoming more and more apparent. Glory days may well
lie ahead, just not to the US or Canada."
I made no comment on attitdes at all! I presented an objective measure with no underlying sentiment. The population split of the area is moving quickly towards a smaller % white British and population growth is coming from new immigrant communities who still believe in having kids, we've given up! Hence over time, the overall % of long haul going West will likely fall as people travel East to reconnect or visit family. If you can't see that, or deal with it, and shriek "racist" when presented with the most basic of trends, then maybe debate isn't for you. These boards remain some of the more calm and thoughtful on the internet, let's try and keep it that way, and not yell "FIRE" when we disagree.
There's a reason that Emirates sent the A380 to MAN so early on before many other traditional European capitals, embrace that, deny it, the choice is yours. But this isn't the world of Gil Thomson anymore, for better or worse. Stop trying to turn the clock back, there's bigger opportunities elsewhere it seems to me.
As for the guys involved in secret squirrel conversations who say "Airline A is a cert for 2025" well we hear this annually.....
If you go read what SWBKCB has helpfully posted, it’s right there. Document entered force 25 March 2021 so post Brexit. Article 2(1)(c)(i) and 2(1)(c)(ii) are the bits you need to read.
US airlines have full traffic rights for point behind USA-USA-UK and onwards if they wish, so fifth freedom rights. So Fiji-LAX-MAN-FRA would be possible (for instance). UK airlines have rights to fly XXX-UK-USA-YYY - so could fly Kuwait-MAN-JFK-YVR for example.
The only thing carved out is domestic rights in each other’s countries (cabotage) which is pretty normal.
The agreement also supersedes other agreements including the 1977 agreement signed at Bermuda which is commonly referred to as Bermuda II, and the revisions to that which followed over the years.
There is no reason why a US carrier wanting to fly to Manchester could not start doing so tomorrow.
US airlines have full traffic rights for point behind USA-USA-UK and onwards if they wish, so fifth freedom rights. So Fiji-LAX-MAN-FRA would be possible (for instance). UK airlines have rights to fly XXX-UK-USA-YYY - so could fly Kuwait-MAN-JFK-YVR for example.
The only thing carved out is domestic rights in each other’s countries (cabotage) which is pretty normal.
The agreement also supersedes other agreements including the 1977 agreement signed at Bermuda which is commonly referred to as Bermuda II, and the revisions to that which followed over the years.
There is no reason why a US carrier wanting to fly to Manchester could not start doing so tomorrow.
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: London
Posts: 837
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Rutan - which document are you referring to and which part of it in particular?
This seems to be the current one - see article 11 in particular?
Air Transport Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the United States of America
This seems to be the current one - see article 11 in particular?
Air Transport Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the United States of America
It was reading that and specifically the brevity of the paragraph that concerned me.
It and chapter 15 implied this is a placement document and further clarity and deeper agreements are necessary.
But anyway thanks for the post .
Still MAG route development teams have work to do immediately and that is for sure whatever the current general economic conditions are at play.
Will Manchester ever recover from the collapse of Thomas Cooks US venture doubtful , however LAX Boston, Philadelphia and perhaps Dallas should seem achievable in the next 3 to 5 years
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Eas Anglia
Age: 64
Posts: 812
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A few posters have lapsed into "strategic oversight.
This thread was actually started following confirmation that a number of airlines had actually applied and received slots !
They HAD already made a decsion to come here, and were prepared to start, but then they got as far as Manchester's front door, its believed it was closed.
I have no idea if that is true or false.
I have no reason to disbelieve the person who posted that as they seem to be a supporter of Manchester and would have no reason to invent a number of fictional negative stories.
It would be equally jaw dropping if MAN didn't welcome them with open arms, but if JET2, our best customer feel compelled to double their costs by setting up 30 mins drivetime away and United haven't returned despite gushing in praise pre Covid , you do tend to think there is another narrative at play which has affected the rumour of other other applications.
IF its space then someone needs to be accountable.
We should have built more space for aircraft BEFORE carpet bombing the place with car parks and BEFORE starting work on T2.
MAN has gifted 5 aircraft to it nearest rival. That has effectively creamed off 2024 growth but worse has set a precedent where they can now turn round and negotiate on price going forward as well.
What happens in 2025 ?
Is it more aircraft at Manchester OR would they simply now continue to exapand at Liverpool?
That's why i don't understand this narrative that it will be all ok when tbe WIP is finished. Lots of carriers appear to have moved on.
If MAN really think airlines that couldn't be accomodated in 2024 and who have since started in Liverpool, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Dublin (cough) will comeback i think they are sadly mistaken.
This thread was actually started following confirmation that a number of airlines had actually applied and received slots !
They HAD already made a decsion to come here, and were prepared to start, but then they got as far as Manchester's front door, its believed it was closed.
I have no idea if that is true or false.
I have no reason to disbelieve the person who posted that as they seem to be a supporter of Manchester and would have no reason to invent a number of fictional negative stories.
It would be equally jaw dropping if MAN didn't welcome them with open arms, but if JET2, our best customer feel compelled to double their costs by setting up 30 mins drivetime away and United haven't returned despite gushing in praise pre Covid , you do tend to think there is another narrative at play which has affected the rumour of other other applications.
IF its space then someone needs to be accountable.
We should have built more space for aircraft BEFORE carpet bombing the place with car parks and BEFORE starting work on T2.
MAN has gifted 5 aircraft to it nearest rival. That has effectively creamed off 2024 growth but worse has set a precedent where they can now turn round and negotiate on price going forward as well.
What happens in 2025 ?
Is it more aircraft at Manchester OR would they simply now continue to exapand at Liverpool?
That's why i don't understand this narrative that it will be all ok when tbe WIP is finished. Lots of carriers appear to have moved on.
If MAN really think airlines that couldn't be accomodated in 2024 and who have since started in Liverpool, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Dublin (cough) will comeback i think they are sadly mistaken.
Last edited by Navpi; 19th Nov 2023 at 13:33.
When it comes to the bilateral, please read Article 2 - grant of rights. That contains the secret sauce of the bilateral and sets out who can do what. The rest of its content all supports that clause.
It’s for Jet2 to explain why they have set up shop down the road. My guess is that they will have looked at a postcode analysis of their customer base and recognised that they are weaker in the Liverpool area, where passengers are flying with Ryanair and easyJet (increasingly active in the holiday market) from Liverpool. If there is a part of the market you aren’t attracting but believe you need to, you go set up shop where you need to be to capture it.
What I do not “get” through all of this is the assumption that there is some conspiracy theory in high places to do Manchester down. It’s just bizarre. And Skipness makes a good point about growth coming from other areas, just not transatlantic right now.
It’s for Jet2 to explain why they have set up shop down the road. My guess is that they will have looked at a postcode analysis of their customer base and recognised that they are weaker in the Liverpool area, where passengers are flying with Ryanair and easyJet (increasingly active in the holiday market) from Liverpool. If there is a part of the market you aren’t attracting but believe you need to, you go set up shop where you need to be to capture it.
What I do not “get” through all of this is the assumption that there is some conspiracy theory in high places to do Manchester down. It’s just bizarre. And Skipness makes a good point about growth coming from other areas, just not transatlantic right now.
I remember United strongly defending the importance of their GLA-IAD route literally the week that the announcement was made they were axeing it. I have also had a request for a refund on LHR-MME with bmi denied when we all knew it was axed but no announcement had been made. Businesses work in siloes. PR and marketing are all positive and nice, revenue management and finance are realistic.
Hence you must always take PR with a bucket of salt, no
matter who is talking. Saying the wrong thing can even upset the share price.
And surely easyJet didn't "double their costs" when they finally set up at MAN after years at LPL? Room for both surely?
Hence you must always take PR with a bucket of salt, no
matter who is talking. Saying the wrong thing can even upset the share price.
And surely easyJet didn't "double their costs" when they finally set up at MAN after years at LPL? Room for both surely?
Join Date: May 2022
Location: Liverpool
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It’s also important to remember that whilst frequency and range of destinations in the US are down MAN had more seats available to the US than EDI whose services are mainly 757/767, whereas MAN are all wide bodies A333,A351,B789 etc with much higher capacities.
As an example Virgin are now basing 2 397 seat A350-1000’s during summer which is a big increase in capacity.
As an example Virgin are now basing 2 397 seat A350-1000’s during summer which is a big increase in capacity.
A few posters have lapsed into "strategic oversight", this thread was actually started on the basis that a number of airlines actually applied and received slots , they HAD already made a decsion to come here, but when they got as far as Manchester's front door it was closed.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Eas Anglia
Age: 64
Posts: 812
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"It’s for Jet2 to explain why they have set up shop down the road. My guess is that they will have looked at a postcode analysis of their customer base and recognised that they are weaker in the Liverpool area".
Given customers to the North of Liverpool are the only ones who might benefit and are at worse an extra 30 mins away from MAN and those on the Eastern side are equidistant if not nearer I would say its an identical footprint ?
Plus the traffic mix argument is diminished further. 30% of the Liverpool mix of traffic is to Eire and Northern Ireland.
Jet2 are not serving Belfast, Dublin, Cork Shannon, Knock or Londonderry as RYR and EZY do currently.
Not sure the post code argument stacks but maybe it does ?
Given customers to the North of Liverpool are the only ones who might benefit and are at worse an extra 30 mins away from MAN and those on the Eastern side are equidistant if not nearer I would say its an identical footprint ?
Plus the traffic mix argument is diminished further. 30% of the Liverpool mix of traffic is to Eire and Northern Ireland.
Jet2 are not serving Belfast, Dublin, Cork Shannon, Knock or Londonderry as RYR and EZY do currently.
Not sure the post code argument stacks but maybe it does ?
Last edited by Navpi; 19th Nov 2023 at 16:30.
From memory there has nearly always been an IT operation out of Liverpool going back to days or Laker 1-11s in early 70s may be even earlier with Eagle but those are before my days
and most have run operations from both LPL and MAN.
Jet2 are adding a lot of extra aircraft to their fleet which have to be filled I mean 9 738 this winter alone plus the A321s and only 2 757 and maybe a couple of 733 leaving so in effect no aircrarft are being pinched from anywhere.
As for United to FAO 4 days a week on a really knackered 757 which I know people were not keen on travelling on as time keeping was awful as were Americans
and most have run operations from both LPL and MAN.
Jet2 are adding a lot of extra aircraft to their fleet which have to be filled I mean 9 738 this winter alone plus the A321s and only 2 757 and maybe a couple of 733 leaving so in effect no aircrarft are being pinched from anywhere.
As for United to FAO 4 days a week on a really knackered 757 which I know people were not keen on travelling on as time keeping was awful as were Americans
From memory there has nearly always been an IT operation out of Liverpool going back to days or Laker 1-11s in early 70s may be even earlier with Eagle but those are before my days
and most have run operations from both LPL and MAN.
Jet2 are adding a lot of extra aircraft to their fleet which have to be filled I mean 9 738 this winter alone plus the A321s and only 2 757 and maybe a couple of 733 leaving so in effect no aircrarft are being pinched from anywhere.
As for United to FAO 4 days a week on a really knackered 757 which I know people were not keen on travelling on as time keeping was awful as were Americans
and most have run operations from both LPL and MAN.
Jet2 are adding a lot of extra aircraft to their fleet which have to be filled I mean 9 738 this winter alone plus the A321s and only 2 757 and maybe a couple of 733 leaving so in effect no aircrarft are being pinched from anywhere.
As for United to FAO 4 days a week on a really knackered 757 which I know people were not keen on travelling on as time keeping was awful as were Americans
My former employer was the engineering handling agent for most of the US airlines that were at MAN pre covid. If those airlines wanted to return within the next 12 months, they would have to ask someone else or set up their own engineering Base. The demographic has meant large numbers of experienced people have retired or have left for pastures new.
The airport is undergoing huge change and if the rumours are true about T1, even bigger change is coming.
If I was looking at somewhere to restart longhaul services it would not be MAN, not for at least 5 years anyway.
In other news I've heared Easyjet will have 30 aircraft based at MAN and want to set up their own engineering Base. God knows where they will get the staff!
The airport is undergoing huge change and if the rumours are true about T1, even bigger change is coming.
If I was looking at somewhere to restart longhaul services it would not be MAN, not for at least 5 years anyway.
In other news I've heared Easyjet will have 30 aircraft based at MAN and want to set up their own engineering Base. God knows where they will get the staff!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: North West UK
Age: 69
Posts: 266
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Could it not be the case that 30% of the Liverpool traffic mix is from Eire and Northern Ireland because there is no sizeable IT operation from there at present? Surely, it’s a very astute move by Jet2 as it effectively takes market share from TUI. Passengers can either choose to fly locally with a very well respected Jet 2 or travel further to fly with a rather tired TUI which needs a brand refresh IMHO. Jet2 will also be aware that EZY have great aspirations for easyJet Holidays which - from recent financials- is trading ahead of expectations. Should they sit on their laurels and allow that to grow without competition?
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Uk
Posts: 285
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A few posters have lapsed into "strategic oversight.
This thread was actually started following confirmation that a number of airlines had actually applied and received slots !
They HAD already made a decsion to come here, and were prepared to start, but then they got as far as Manchester's front door, its believed it was closed.
I have no idea if that is true or false.
I have no reason to disbelieve the person who posted that as they seem to be a supporter of Manchester and would have no reason to invent a number of fictional negative stories.
It would be equally jaw dropping if MAN didn't welcome them with open arms, but if JET2, our best customer feel compelled to double their costs by setting up 30 mins drivetime away and United haven't returned despite gushing in praise pre Covid , you do tend to think there is another narrative at play which has affected the rumour of other other applications.
IF its space then someone needs to be accountable.
We should have built more space for aircraft BEFORE carpet bombing the place with car parks and BEFORE starting work on T2.
MAN has gifted 5 aircraft to it nearest rival. That has effectively creamed off 2024 growth but worse has set a precedent where they can now turn round and negotiate on price going forward as well.
What happens in 2025 ?
Is it more aircraft at Manchester OR would they simply now continue to exapand at Liverpool?
That's why i don't understand this narrative that it will be all ok when tbe WIP is finished. Lots of carriers appear to have moved on.
If MAN really think airlines that couldn't be accomodated in 2024 and who have since started in Liverpool, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Dublin (cough) will comeback i think they are sadly mistaken.
This thread was actually started following confirmation that a number of airlines had actually applied and received slots !
They HAD already made a decsion to come here, and were prepared to start, but then they got as far as Manchester's front door, its believed it was closed.
I have no idea if that is true or false.
I have no reason to disbelieve the person who posted that as they seem to be a supporter of Manchester and would have no reason to invent a number of fictional negative stories.
It would be equally jaw dropping if MAN didn't welcome them with open arms, but if JET2, our best customer feel compelled to double their costs by setting up 30 mins drivetime away and United haven't returned despite gushing in praise pre Covid , you do tend to think there is another narrative at play which has affected the rumour of other other applications.
IF its space then someone needs to be accountable.
We should have built more space for aircraft BEFORE carpet bombing the place with car parks and BEFORE starting work on T2.
MAN has gifted 5 aircraft to it nearest rival. That has effectively creamed off 2024 growth but worse has set a precedent where they can now turn round and negotiate on price going forward as well.
What happens in 2025 ?
Is it more aircraft at Manchester OR would they simply now continue to exapand at Liverpool?
That's why i don't understand this narrative that it will be all ok when tbe WIP is finished. Lots of carriers appear to have moved on.
If MAN really think airlines that couldn't be accomodated in 2024 and who have since started in Liverpool, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Dublin (cough) will comeback i think they are sadly mistaken.
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: GB
Posts: 246
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Jet2 @ LPL realistically has nothing to do with Manchester.
They have been taking A321s and second hand 737s by the ton since the start of the year. The LPL base will be a surplus of new aircraft, not aircraft taken out of MAN. Further growth at MAN will largely be driven by the swapping of based 737s to A321s.
Liverpool for Jet2 is mostly a new market. As has been stated all destinations to be offered ex LPL are available in much higher frequency ex MAN.
The base will compliment MAN not take away from it. Look at easyJet for example.
They have been taking A321s and second hand 737s by the ton since the start of the year. The LPL base will be a surplus of new aircraft, not aircraft taken out of MAN. Further growth at MAN will largely be driven by the swapping of based 737s to A321s.
Liverpool for Jet2 is mostly a new market. As has been stated all destinations to be offered ex LPL are available in much higher frequency ex MAN.
The base will compliment MAN not take away from it. Look at easyJet for example.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Eas Anglia
Age: 64
Posts: 812
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Could it not be the case that 30% of the Liverpool traffic mix is from Eire and Northern Ireland because there is no sizeable IT operation from there at present? Surely, it’s a very astute move by Jet2 as it effectively takes market share from TUI. Passengers can either choose to fly locally with a very well respected Jet 2 or travel further to fly with a rather tired TUI which needs a brand refresh IMHO. Jet2 will also be aware that EZY have great aspirations for easyJet Holidays which - from recent financials- is trading ahead of expectations. Should they sit on their laurels and allow that to grow without competition?
Well they could have stayed at Manchester. If you are trying to steal market share from TUI how on earth does setting up at Liverpool help ?
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: North West UK
Age: 69
Posts: 266
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
They have stayed at Manchester as well as opening up at Liverpool! They can take market share in the North West from TUI by offering a USP which TUI does not have ie a Liverpool departure.