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Old 21st Oct 2013, 12:24
  #1141 (permalink)  
 
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AN

Thanks for the update: I have no more than an average Brummie's knowledge of Sweden's Economic Geography.

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Old 21st Oct 2013, 12:56
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If the Chinese do go for something outside Heathrow it will be interesting to see which city they choose, especially after the £800m announcement of investment by Beijing Construction in Manchester.

With Saudia , Rouge and UsAir all announcing new services next year, albeit highly seasonal I still wonder if BHX really is to near London and doesnt have a distinct enough identity.

Would HS2 improve things OR simply suck more pax away. Unless there is a build up of critial mass soon I just cannot understand the logic that suggests pax would choose from a sprinkling of services at BHX when you could hop on HS2 and be at LHR with a vast range of options in a short space of time....same applies to Manchester where a new HS2 station will be built near the airport.

It seems like madness to me and yet the CEOs of both airports think HS2 will be great for both airports

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Old 21st Oct 2013, 14:09
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Usually natural geograhpy would dictate that MAN would see any expansion outside of London given it sits centrally between Brum and the 3 main northern conurbations, that said China like India maybe a country that sees a direct service from BHX given the business links between the city of Birmingham and China.
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Old 21st Oct 2013, 15:21
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Crikey Cat111

A fair amount of truth in your statement, but are you on the MAN exec board for all your advertising of MAN and swift dismissal of BHX

Think you put this on the wrong thread and should be on the MAN one ?

Nigel

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Old 21st Oct 2013, 16:40
  #1145 (permalink)  
 
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Nigel if only

I wish. Nigel

As a regular passenger from BHX, many times in the past and with now, remote Family employment connections to contractors (past) at BHX , and (relatively near miss ATCO candidate: don't Laugh) - Typical SLF, my criticism or more accurately moan, was about the growth prospects of a mesh of European S/H services from Brum.

I was using Stockholm as a potential example of the likes of services to Lisbon (tried) , Prague (tried) and Vienna (tried). OK some of these are a time ago - I was a regular on the ORD' both as end point and onward (San Jose & IND) . Other activities different prospects.

As I said the facility has a positive role and future, but the Economic geography of the UK is well against BHX - Squeezed

I'm told the new facility is very good, and the RWY extension will help, but better informed than me, will recount the routes that have been tried but not survived or prospered sadly for the West Mids.

In a much brighter note: the Monarch engineering facility has the promise of success.

Sorry to be grim. [Passenger Experts for this one: Does familiarity with a facility increase its use in a statistically significant way ?]

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Old 21st Oct 2013, 17:26
  #1146 (permalink)  
 
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I was using Stockholm as a potential example of the likes of services to Lisbon (tried) , Prague (tried) and Vienna (tried). OK some of these are a time ago - I was a regular on the ORD' both as end point and onward (San Jose & IND) . Other activities different prospects.

As I said the facility has a positive role and future, but the Economic geography of the UK is well against BHX - Squeezed
Stockholm is a route that the current carrier could make a go of, but with the constant fiddling and around and changing of the schedule it's being treated as a leisure service, rather than a business one. A daily CR7 / E75, at the same time every day, operating 11 months of the year, and connecting with the domestic network would be much more likely to succeed. As for the rest, PRG was operated "properly" by CSA and was successful, but the carrier's policy changed, and all UK regional routes dropped. LIS was never a goer as business service operated by Baby, and VIE was flows by a commercial disaster - namely Duo.

LIS could work, daily as a triangular operation incorporating OPO - this was done some years ago at Manchester. VIE ought to be given a go by Austrian, or even BMIR. PRG, no, no chance businesswise, and the "p*ssheads" have moved their stag do's to the like of Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius.

I think that ORD was killed off by the events of September 2001 - and the problems of operating effectively off the short runway - fingers crossed, it could be a prime candidate for a return - if the US politicians stop trying to crucify their economy with constant brinkmanship.

As for UK economic geography, agree, but that won't preclude growth, as our (Midlands) economy turns around.

I still believe the glass is "half full" at BHX - not as if often portrayed, "half empty"
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Old 21st Oct 2013, 18:13
  #1147 (permalink)  
 
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the "p*ssheads" have moved their stag do's to the like of Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius
were very much still evident on my last few flights to PRG
LIS could work, daily as a triangular operation incorporating OPO
Nope, couldnt see that working
ORD was always marginal. I dont see whats changed. It was the same with the AA GLA operation.
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Old 21st Oct 2013, 20:02
  #1148 (permalink)  
 
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ARN & ORD

CATIII-NDB & ATNotts

Stockholm is a bit of a head-scratcher, it started 29-10-12 at around 6 a week until December before dropping to 4 and then about an eighteen day Christmas & New Year holiday before returning at 3/4 a week staying that way to mid April before returning to six a week until 26 June before it when on summer leave until late August.

Now it goes two a week for a few weeks (Wed & Fri) before settling in to three with Sunday on the Blue 1 Boeing 717. Another Christmas break but longer this time until late February. Back to Friday/Wednesday for a week before Sunday is added. Summer has changed again to Mo/We/Fr/Su as a Blue 1 717 all flights. It was 6 a week 737 mix.

The worrying aspect it has had 738 loads (another 738 tonight) which must make some flights near empty based on the average pax.

Prague

Quite amazing and I am surprised Monarch have not tried.

Lisbon

TAP using the Potugalia F100 could be an option, the BMI Baby figures showed that there was leisure interest. Manchester Lisbon failed once and look at it now but I can understand in a way if BHX is well down TAP's must do list. BHX at 5 per week on the F100 or 4 on the 319 could work but I am not sure about a ZB A320 unless 2-3 per week.

VickersVicount

Not sure what your sources were for Chicago but there were rumours before 9/11 that it was marginal. Have things changed...well APD certainly has but I am a firm believer that BHX could support a second transatlantic. However US Air PHL was the wrong airline/destination and although we wished it well it was always going to be a tough ask.

It doesn't really leave a lot of choice on ORD as the 757 is the ideal aircraft for configuration purposes but far too tight on the westbound leg although Manchester -Charlotte is around the same distance.

Looking on the bright side not too much has been lost recently in terms of full service airlines. I suppose the Swiss lunchtime service was the biggest disappointment but that is even happening up the road this winter although they get Swiss mainline on both remaining service whilst BHX gets Helvetic!!!

I wonder if BMI Regional will have a re-think rather than pull-out? Gothenburg seems to be worth persisting with but that alone won't suffice.

Pete
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 10:45
  #1149 (permalink)  
 
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CAT 111

Yes its very frustrating.

The bottom line seems clear here.

BHX allegedly have the 8th highest joint handling/landing charges in Europe,and more than twice that of MAN.

I assume they are not in a position to lower them much if they want to stay in the black.

ATNOTTS

That leads me on to your point about glass half full.

I think in terms of full fare airlines think you are right. Our main business routes continue to grow and although we probably cannot support many 3 class routes long haul,can see some expansion possible with 2 class machines of 787-8 size.

I can also see some expansion possible in Europe with full fare airlines.Also more airlines like TAP and perhaps Finnair as our economy recovers

However for low cost if BHX is unable to drop its charges I just don't see a major expansion possible.

With changes in their timetable Ryan Air may be down to just 2 full based at BHX this winter. Easy Jet have repeated they are not interested only a few weeks ago. Jet 2 have no plans for a new UK base their CEO said only last week.

That just leaves Norwegian , if they stay away from BHX and expand as strongly rumoured out of MAN.. then that leaves us with crumbs to fight over.

Nigel

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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 11:21
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Nigel.

How about adding Iceland air to your list?
I think there is demand for business and leisure to Iceland from BHX. Add on their extensive onward connections to Canada (which is woefully under served from the midlands) results in a healthy mix of point to point and transfer pax.
It may even wake up Air Transat a bit with some healthy competition.
Business, tourism, visiting relatives and skiing season... Would that warrant an all year round service?
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 14:48
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Splash n dash,

Yes agree Iceland would be well worth a go. Iceland Express announced it while back then never operated. I think Icelandair are buying 738/9 MAX mostly for Trans Atlantic but an ideal size for BHX, so could well be one we could get.

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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 16:03
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I really think BHX has to come up with a commercial proposition to entice airlines rather than constant comparisons with Manchester. No other thread refers to another airport as much as this one.

There seems to be a feeling that

"well it works from Manchester" therefore its bound to work from BHX as well"

Its a totally totally differently market

With....
Landing fees so much higher
An inferior domestic network to MAN
EMA on the door step
And Lhr not much more than an hour away offering multi frequency

BHX needs something dramatic like the STN deal that MAG did with Ryanair Or DO THEY.
Would that compromise the current fragile infrastructure.

And with the RW extention to pay for how can the circle be squared

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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 16:10
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Iceland ........... mmm ...... well once per month might work
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 17:19
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The population of Iceland is 320,000 - about the same as Coventry.

Despite its financial collapse a few years ago, it is still a very expensive place to visit.

In winter it is cold and very dark.

There are already UK services to Luton (EZY), Heathrow (FI), Gatwick (WOW & FI), Edinburgh (EZY), Manchester (EZY & FI), Glasgow (FI) and from December Bristol (EZY).

Don't get too excited.....
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 17:26
  #1155 (permalink)  
 
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In winter it is cold and very dark
And in Summer it's cold and very light!
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 18:20
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Inn winter it is cold and very dark....

Are we still talking about Iceland or Birmingham.

Is the news about Bristol to Iceland not a more realistic comparison.?

Would be interesting to see destinations Ex Bristol not served from Bhx.

What is Birminghams USP ?
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 18:34
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What is Birminghams USP
Interesting question, you could ask that of virtually any UK airport. As far as BHX is concerned I'd say the ICC and NEC (world class conference and exhibition centres) plus (to the english speaking world) - Shakespeare's Stratford.

I think that my first two go some way to explaining why scheduled business services and interline connections are so important to BHX - more so than the bucket and spade market.
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 20:40
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Would be interesting to see destinations Ex Bristol not served from Bhx
Looking at the BRS website these are the scheduled destinations they serve that BHX don't are:

Prague, Beziers, Limoges, Marseilles, Toulouse, Budapest, Reykjavik, Naples, Pisa, Riga, Lodz, Poznan, Szczecin, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Lisbon, Olbia, Madrid, Valencia

Some of these of course could be summer only. MAD, PRG, WAW and LIS would be nice from BHX thanks. On the flip side, remember, BRS also has only three full service interline providers, SN via BRS, AF via CDG and KL via AMS and no scheduled long haul.......

BHX does well with interline carriers to a few main hubs, traditional bucket and spade and the few niche long haul routes it has cultivated. These will continue to bring pax through the doors but will not provide an explosion in terms of routes and pax numbers, instead just steady but unspectacular growth. I really cannot see where any big growth will come from in the near future. TP and AY are shots in the dark but could happen. At present BHX has just one new route for S14, ZB to HRG. Both EDI and MAN have seen expansion to trans-atlantic services, BHX does not yet have a single new carrier or route that will need the runway extension, although has of course seen new routes and carriers to the Indian sub-continent. How long will T5 last though?

BHX allegedly have the 8th highest joint handling/landing charges in Europe,and more than twice that of MAN.

I assume they are not in a position to lower them much if they want to stay in the black.
Therein lies a major issue and constraint on growth - like it or not airlines chase good deals to land at airports. Landing fees that cannot be reduced because the airport has saddled itself with debts to pay off for capital infrastructure projects in the deluded hope it will become some sort of new long haul hub have put paid to striking any kind of deal with Easy, Jet2, Norwegian or indeed anyone and therefore strengthening the short haul network. Other airports must invest and manage to cultivated successful deals with such airlines yet BHX can't/won't.

As far as BHX is concerned I'd say the ICC and NEC
Sadly I don't think so compared to the days that used to see wide bodies from LH and extra flights from LX, TK etc to cope with the upsurge in demand for shows like the Spring Fair and Motor Show. Yes there are still a lot of shows at the NEC but not those that see business pax needing to fly into BHX in any great numbers

I really think BHX has to come up with a commercial proposition to entice airlines rather than constant comparisons with Manchester
Agreed - and hanging onto the coat tails of LHR to provide future growth is even worse. But what is that commercial proposition? Brummies seem happy to interline to get to their chosen destination or fly off on a bucket and spade holiday. Anything else more out the box seems of no interest to the local populace or is worth the journey to another airport to get there.
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 20:59
  #1159 (permalink)  
 
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NAVPI

BHX will have little interest in LC airlines that want to operate for 10 yrs and pay virtually nothing for the priviledge.

It works well at STN as they are geared up for low cost,and can absorb the impact easier as their costs are lower.

BHX terminal and piers are geared up for full fare so cannot compete. Which is why they are far more keen on airlines that pay ie full fare ones.

However you are absolutly right BHX is a very different airport than MAN for the reasons you mention.

However not sure how they increase passenger numbers considerably if they cannot get enough new full fare airlines and cannot drop their prices to attract lower cost ones ?

Nigel
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Old 22nd Oct 2013, 22:30
  #1160 (permalink)  
 
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BHX allegedly have the 8th highest joint handling/landing charges in Europe,and more than twice that of MAN.
Whoever concluded that need to do some research as there is no way BHX is in the top 10 never mind the top 20 if not top 30.

Last edited by j636; 22nd Oct 2013 at 22:31.
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