BIRMINGHAM - 6

[getonittt]

HS2 and BHX

Quite surprised this has not been debated more on here

The Victorian mode of transport is not of particular interest on an aviation forum but nevertheless it has of course been mentioned a few times and to echo what frank has said it won't really make a jot of difference to BHX. The sheer timescale is the factor, Gatwick , Stansted , LCY and Heathrow , Yes Heathrow , will have expanded before the line even reaches the Midlands.
Besides , it's not as though a rail link is not there... it is , and if you want to get somewhere quicker take an earlier train!

[ATNotts]

The sheer timescale is the factor,

And is key reason why nothing fundamental infrastructure wise gets done in a timely / adequate manner, which is exactly why we have a second rate rail system, road infrastructure and indeed airport infrastructure.

Too many NIMBYs, and accountants who want to put a monetary value on projects that have no direct, immediate, financial return.

[OltonPete]

July International route analysis

Monthly passenger figures: CAA (July 2012 in brackets)
Average pax per flight: SBS log
Load Factor: estimated based on various seatmap and airline sites

Although in general some great figures there is room for improvement with some French routes such as Bordeaux, Toulouse and even Nice.

Major increase for Stuttgart, which is good to see and in general the flybe routes seem to do well load wise but again whether this was at the expense of yields I don't know.

Much work to do for BMI Regional but some green shoots on Toulouse and Gothenburg but Billund is very low and I wonder how long they will give it?.

Also as ever the Ryanair Eastern European routes are as interesting as ever.

Stockholm never actually operated in July but is back now at 6 a week.

BRUSSELS........7485 (7292)........ 42 pax......52%

Dubrovnik............2888 (3231).......144 pax....81%

Split.......................3475 (nil)......134 pax....78%

LARNACA............8380 (8160)..... 190 pax...96%

PAPHOS...............4665 (4887).....179 pax...89%

Billund....................703 (nil)........ 17 pax.....34%...

Copenhagen.........4134 (4347)..... 69 pax.....72%

Avignon.............. 492 (838).........62pax.... 79%

Bergerac.............. 1122 (1089)......56 pax....68%

Bordeaux..............2557 (nil)........98 pax... 57%

Brest....................998 (973)........62 pax.....80%

La Rochelle..........696 (805)..........58 pax...69%

Lyon....................4216 (o)......... 54 pax.....71%

MONTPELIER ......2553 (2665)....141 pax....75%

NICE.....................7044 (9084)....114 pax....63%

PARIS (CDG).......34620 (34294)....99 pax....84%

Perpignan.............3485 (728)......134 pax...71%

Toulouse...............1107 (nil)........24 pax....49%

BERLIN (TEGEL).....5514 (6617).....89 pax...69%

DUSSELDORF........16597 (14840)..56 pax....64%

FRANKFURT ...... 26944 (26081)...110 pax....73%

Hamburg.......... 3403 (4324)....... 63 pax....71%

HANOVER....... 4164 (5681).........67 pax.....82%

Munich............. 15609 (15936)..... . 92 pax..75%

STUTTGART...... 4631 (3022)........ 54 pax.....68%

GIBRALTAR........3862 (nil)........... 149 pax... 85%

Heraklion............3023 (3086)..... 168 pax.... 86%

BUDAPEST...............0(2891)...........nil pax....nil

Cork....................6115(6762) ........58 pax.... 80%

DUBLIN........... 50573 (45351)......95 pax....66%
...
KNOCK...............2704 (3243).......44 pax.....69%

SHANNON...........2966 (2714)......48 pax.....75%

WATERFORD......2060 (1336)........57 pax....73%

BERGAMO...........4265 (nil) ........164 pax...87%

MILANÂ MXP).... 5118 (8071).....83 pax.. .72% - ZB & BE in 2012

ROME Â (FCO).....10142 (11757) .164 pax..91%

TRIESTE ............2335 (2405) .......146 pax...77%

VENICE............ 4724 (5006)..... 139 pax..80%

KAUNAS.......... .3233 (3098)..... 180 pax....95%

MALTA...............3114 (3088).. 173 pax...92% -

AMSTERDAM....40116 (33891)...... 85 pax....77%

ISLAMABAD..... 7522 (7966) ......223 pax...66%

BYDGOSZCZ.......4726 (4562).......182 pax...96%

GDANSK..........3212 (3135).... ...178 pax....94%

KATOWICE........3812 (4193)........173 pax..91%

KRAKOW,..........2814(nil) .........176 pax. .93%

RZESZOW.........3271 (3181).....182 pax....96%

FARO..............19660 (22736)....172 pax...86%

FUNCHAL.........2625 ((nil) ........146 pax...84%

BRATISLAVA.... 4593 (4540)......177 pax...93%

ALICANTE.......26991(32511)....169 pax..88% - EMA 32K

ALMERIA..........3531 (3666)......196 pax....92%

BARCELONA..... 18022 (6186)......155 pax..83%

GIRONA.......... ...2448(5961).......136 pax...72%

IBIZA................12937 (13683).....164 pax...85%

MAHON............. 6799 (6911).......189 pax...92%

MALAGA............30455 (37198) ...169 pax...87%

MURCIA Â ...... ,.5868 (10433)......163 pax...86%

PALMA...............24518 (28948).....166 pax....87%

REUS.....................3548 (4105)....136 pax....72%

ARRECIFE............11359 (11415)..183 pax...93%

FUERTEVENTURA..6765 (6540).....188 pax...93%

LASPALMAS..........7874 (8349).....179 pax..91%

TENERIFEÂ (TFS)...16149 (16096) ..176pax..92%

GOTEBORG...........1175 (nil)...... ..24 pax....50%

Stockholm........... nil (nil)............0 pax.... 0%

ZURICH............... 9497 (13574)......76 pax...78%

Bodrum............ ..4212 (4161).........150pax....86%

DALAMAN.........9687 (10969)........ .156 pax.82%

ISTANBUL........10422 (8365)..........118 pax..76% less than June - Ramadan?

Ashkhabad........3058(4666)...........115 pax...63%

DUBAI............. 41909 (38663).......338 pax.....82%

Toronto.............2569 (2675)..........257 pax...93%

NEW YORK (EWR)..9449(8955).........152 pax..90%..

Pete

[Monty Gordo]

July stats

OP: An interesting set of figures and my thanks to you for being able to put these up for our perusal.

They are interesting as you say but apart from the French routes which you identify as needing some improvement and the vagaries of the Eastern European routes one thing does stand out as far as I am concerned and that is the steady growth in all of the 'hub' airports: Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Istanbul, Dubai, Dublin and New York. All showing positive gains over 12 months ago.

We therefore come back to the wish list of Madrid and Lisbon, both of which offer extensive onward travel opportunities to South America and Africa in particular. Let us hope this void can be filled before too long. Like the other aiports mentioned, I am sure PAX would grow as those who use BHX and who choose to build their business and leisure travel plans from their local airport.

[OltonPete]

July Domestic stats

Sources:

pax: CAA

Number of rotations: local SBS log spreadsheet

Load Factor: estimates based on airline sites

Aberdeen.............9171 (7863)...........49 pax.......58%
Belfast City........24820 (25759)........71 pax........66%
Belfast Int..........13714 (nil).............118 pax......76%
Londonderry......5472 (5358)..........124 pax.......66%
Edinburgh..........25387 (25529).......73 pax.........70%
Glasgow.............16377 (18164).......54 pax.........54%
Inverness............3835 (3345)..........62 pax.........72%
Isle of Man.........3704 (4059)..........37 pax.........46%
Guernsey............3605 (2513)
Jersey .................4634 (5281).........52 pax..........63% (combined GCI/JER)
Newcastle...........644 (446)..............8 pax...........29%

So flybe in theory lost 939 pax with easyjet's first July offering making nearly 14000, which is a pretty good result and the Belfast market overall shot up although fares were very soft at times.

Monty Gordo

Yes these are a pretty impressive set of figures even if you ignore the fact EMA, LBA and BRS all carried more pax on Malaga and there are similar tales on Palma, Faro and Alicante, which considering the overall pax throughput of these airport compared to BHX it is a little surprising.

I wasn't too hopeful of any new hub routes but you have to say the way TAP are going at Manchester there must be a chance that they will look seriously at BHX sometime in the future.

I had hoped of Helsinki by flybe on behalf Finnair as a possibility but there doesn't seem anything doing on that score and realistically Lisbon is probably the more likely.

It will be interesting to see if Monarch make any further alterations for summer 14 as there are plenty of rumours around and they have acted on Nice already with it dropping to five weekly next year.

Pete

[chinapattern]

NEW YORK (EWR)..9449(8955).........152 pax..90%..

I wonder if UA would/could go back to x2 during the summer months?

[OltonPete]

United

chinapattern

In their previous life as "Continental" someone posted figures ($ not pax) on another forum when it was double daily and they were shocking.

BHX was in the top ten loss making routes but whether this information was true I have my doubts and I bet the CEO would not have been pleased with individual route figures in terms of $'s posted on an open forum.

This did include the period when it was ten weekly in the winter for a short period and this is where the damage was probably done.

Pete

[chinapattern]

Out of interest did CO ever fly the DC10 double daily, or was it the 757?

I mention this because the loads are always good and as UA are already well established at BHX I'd have thought they'd stand a better chance of matching the loads with the yield, which was something US sadly couldn't achieve.

[nigel osborne]

Chinapattern,

No I think the CO DC-10s stopped before the service went double 757 but I may be wrong.?

Nigel

[bhx bod]

CO DC10s

Nigel I think you are right.The double daily flights were 757s almost exclusively.
It would be nice to think that UAL are thinking about a 2nd flight although a 2nd destination ie ORD is what we really want.However if the EWR figures continue in a similar vein then maybe it could become realistic,perhaps taking a leaf out of THYs book and operating a 2nd flight on the most popular days only.

[groundhogbhx]

DC10's only operated in the summer season and carrying full pax load (232) and 33 tonnes of freight were lucky to break even. Double daily 757's lost so much money due to the doubling of costs for a relatively small increase in overall pax numbers, also the second flight was the last departure from EWR at night and CO had to make sure an aircraft was available to cover if the scheduled one was late as there were no extensions on the curfew.

[Skipness One Echo]

DC10's only operated in the summer season and carrying full pax load (232) and 33 tonnes of freight were lucky to break even.

Lack of premium pax or lack of cargo?

[groundhogbhx]

Neither, the aircraft was completely full most days!

[nigel osborne]

BHX BOD

Not sure they are thinking of double daily at the moment year round. They have just announced the service goes down to 5 a week in Feb, it was six last year.

Having said that BHX is currently at similar levels to MAN, we flew 9449 passengers there in July 13 up nearly 6% .

Manchester flew 9351 and 9844. Former down nearly 7% the latter up 3%. Not sure which one is EWR and which JFK as CAA figures doesn't say.

However with a 90% load factor last month we must be getting close to a possibility of a 2nd New York in the summer, would AA look at doing a JFK I wonder ,although BHX doesn't currently do One World ?

Nigel

[bhx bod]

Nigel.

Not suggesting they are thinking of year round 2x daily.Just summer on the busiest days to mirror what THY are doing.Incidently are THY operating 10 per week thru the winter?However pax numbers need to be consistent to EWR for any consideration for increases in frequency and all on this forum know how wildly pax numbers fluctuate on most services from BHX.

[nigel osborne]

BHX-BOD.

Re TK, just checked a date mid Oct and there are 2 flts showing on the same day, so assuming its still 10 a week this winter ?

Nigel

[GayFriendly]

TK

Yes 10 weekly through the winter, double IST flights are Mon, Thurs and Sun. I would not be at all surprised if this route went double daily in the near future.

How are AI flights doing with pax numbers? Early days I know but would be interesting to hear a general indication of loads from anyone in the know.

[Skipness One Echo]

Neither, the aircraft was completely full most days!

I'm trying to understand what the issue was, if they can't break even with a full load of pax and good cargo. Were they selling at a loss?

[hammerb32]

Those DC10's did burn fuel, daily competition from American at the time?

[nigel osborne]

Gayfriendly,

We may have to wait for the August figures to get an idea of AI numbers. Certainly was told the first 4 flights were full.

Nigel