NEWCASTLE - 8
Is APD definitely going to be devolved?
There's a lot of assumption that the Scottish Executive would scrap APD, but it is by no means a forgone conclusion.
There's a lot of assumption that the Scottish Executive would scrap APD, but it is by no means a forgone conclusion.
Also, the dualling is only as far as Ellington. Ellington-Edinburgh remains single carriageway.
Petrol prices would wipe out the savings. Also there's the aggravation.
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"People are already looking at EDI as well as MAN etc - anecdotally, 4 out of my Newcastle based team on 9 have used EDI for family holidays in then last 18 months (2 used MAN"
The question is why ?
It is not because of APD.
Is it because fares/holidays out of NCL are frequently higher than out of EDI, MAN, EMA, etc ? Or is it because they couldn't fly ex NCL to where they wanted to go, or on a day they wanted to go ?
I frequently find that there is sufficient cost differential between NCL and the others to make it worth driving.
My simple mind says that if fares ex NCL are higher, the yields should be higher as well, and therefore NCL should be attractive to carriers. Or is the cost of operating ex NCL so much higher than anywhere else ?
The question is why ?
It is not because of APD.
Is it because fares/holidays out of NCL are frequently higher than out of EDI, MAN, EMA, etc ? Or is it because they couldn't fly ex NCL to where they wanted to go, or on a day they wanted to go ?
I frequently find that there is sufficient cost differential between NCL and the others to make it worth driving.
My simple mind says that if fares ex NCL are higher, the yields should be higher as well, and therefore NCL should be attractive to carriers. Or is the cost of operating ex NCL so much higher than anywhere else ?
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Is it because fares/holidays out of NCL are frequently higher than out of EDI, MAN, EMA,
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Not "all" as you well know....Thomson have been operating long haul from EDI for years to both Mexico and Florida. And interestingly have seen fit not to expand their offering, why should that change now. You cant still be blaming BAA, Thomson, etc...did I miss anyone ?
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Thomson have been operating long haul from EDI for years to both Mexico and Florida.
NCL clientele would hardly be tempted by the premium prices these few peak flights attract. APD or no APD?
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I think my only input will be is, I'm confident this won't happen because I'm confident this can't happen. It wouldn't be a level playing field and wouldn't be fair and Newcastle would lose out. I think there has been A LOT of over exaggeration as to how far Newcastle would lose out, but we would.
I'd put money on these scenarios:
1. Scottish APD devolved: EZY goes, lose some charter long haul and frequencies on medium haul, forever stuck in the 4mppa purgatory we are in now.
2. Things stay the same: Slow and steady increase as things pick up, might have 5 million passengers again by the end of 2017.
3. UK drops APD: Everyone is better off! Even if massive savings aren't passed on to airlines, sale fares will be lower again, long haul will be much more sustainable for the regions (MAN and probably EDI will benefit from this big time) etc etc etc
There's got to be someone in the houses of parliament clever enough to work that out
I'd put money on these scenarios:
1. Scottish APD devolved: EZY goes, lose some charter long haul and frequencies on medium haul, forever stuck in the 4mppa purgatory we are in now.
2. Things stay the same: Slow and steady increase as things pick up, might have 5 million passengers again by the end of 2017.
3. UK drops APD: Everyone is better off! Even if massive savings aren't passed on to airlines, sale fares will be lower again, long haul will be much more sustainable for the regions (MAN and probably EDI will benefit from this big time) etc etc etc
There's got to be someone in the houses of parliament clever enough to work that out
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My bet is Scenario 2
Not so sure on reaching 5 million by that date though.
I would'nt bet on that.
2. Things stay the same: Slow and steady increase as things pick up, might have 5 million passengers again by the end of 2017.
There's got to be someone in the houses of parliament clever enough to work that out
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long haul will be much more sustainable for the regions (MAN and probably EDI will benefit from this big time) etc etc etc
return surface journeys to MAN or GLA even - taking fuel, time/parking costs into account. The biggest threat would be EDI's closest 220 miles but that isn't going to happen unless the High Street charter fleets decide to relocate. APD or no APD.
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TSR2, I think I agree with you too, it's not the one I want to see, I want to see 3 but as you went on to say, unlikely any of them have the capacity to realise what is best, especially when it comes to the north, the only think I credit Miliband for, saying he will protect North East Airports - In the unlikely event he keeps his word I'd like to see him in charge and see regional devolution take place, I think we can look after ourselves better than they can... Might have to get the local ex MEP (now lord) over for a chat...
And anecdotally, I know people who've traveled ridiculously far for deals (including myself)
- Next year I'm wanting to go to visit FTE Jerez, we could fly NCL-AGP or NCL-STN-XRY, but it's my mam's opinion that driving to STN would be cheaper and the better option (I shall contest this)
- This year my aunty, uncle and grandparents went on holiday to Lanzarote, they drove from Gateshead to LTN to fly FR.... Cheaper
- On the very same day, my cousin and her new husband drove down to Manchester the day after their wedding for their honeymoon to fly MAN-CIA, they live in Alnwick...
- The same aunty and uncle have been to Lanzarote twice before, flown from NCL (LS) once and I believe the other time was LBA (FR)
- I went to London with my parents and flew EDI-LCY-EDI... People at school thought I was mental, but it was cheaper and more convenient
- Family holiday to Portugal a few years ago, the six of us flew MAN-LIS because TAP was cheaper than EZY from GLA or EDI, NCL never got a look in, I assume it's more convenient to have the 3 hour drive on the UK end than the Portugal end.
- Many years ago as a child I remember driving to EMA to go on holiday to the Algarve despite flights from NCL, I also remember the year before/after that, flying NCL-STN-FAO-STN-NCL because it was cheaper (all on EZY 737's
)
I know there have been more occurrences too like my mam flying EMA-NBE for a last minute weekend away and our headteacher (who's a family friend) driving to STN for a school trip to Slovenia... Now, I know there's a lot there, quite a lot are isolated, there are a lot more where we've flown from NCL (even one family holiday from MME!!!), but unfortunately most of the time I had no say (except when I said to take a look at TAP :/ ) and most people never care about supporting their local airport and will go where it's cheaper.
While I'm on the subject, UA better get advertising connecting flights through EWR because I was speaking to another aunty who wants to go back to Las Vegas next year and when I said "oh you can use the new direct flight to New York" she said immediately "no, you wouldn't go through New York first anyway"... I wasn't brave enough to say "you could"
And anecdotally, I know people who've traveled ridiculously far for deals (including myself)
- Next year I'm wanting to go to visit FTE Jerez, we could fly NCL-AGP or NCL-STN-XRY, but it's my mam's opinion that driving to STN would be cheaper and the better option (I shall contest this)
- This year my aunty, uncle and grandparents went on holiday to Lanzarote, they drove from Gateshead to LTN to fly FR.... Cheaper
- On the very same day, my cousin and her new husband drove down to Manchester the day after their wedding for their honeymoon to fly MAN-CIA, they live in Alnwick...
- The same aunty and uncle have been to Lanzarote twice before, flown from NCL (LS) once and I believe the other time was LBA (FR)
- I went to London with my parents and flew EDI-LCY-EDI... People at school thought I was mental, but it was cheaper and more convenient
- Family holiday to Portugal a few years ago, the six of us flew MAN-LIS because TAP was cheaper than EZY from GLA or EDI, NCL never got a look in, I assume it's more convenient to have the 3 hour drive on the UK end than the Portugal end.
- Many years ago as a child I remember driving to EMA to go on holiday to the Algarve despite flights from NCL, I also remember the year before/after that, flying NCL-STN-FAO-STN-NCL because it was cheaper (all on EZY 737's
)I know there have been more occurrences too like my mam flying EMA-NBE for a last minute weekend away and our headteacher (who's a family friend) driving to STN for a school trip to Slovenia... Now, I know there's a lot there, quite a lot are isolated, there are a lot more where we've flown from NCL (even one family holiday from MME!!!), but unfortunately most of the time I had no say (except when I said to take a look at TAP :/ ) and most people never care about supporting their local airport and will go where it's cheaper.
While I'm on the subject, UA better get advertising connecting flights through EWR because I was speaking to another aunty who wants to go back to Las Vegas next year and when I said "oh you can use the new direct flight to New York" she said immediately "no, you wouldn't go through New York first anyway"... I wasn't brave enough to say "you could"
Last edited by EK77WNCL; 2nd Dec 2014 at 21:40.
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I always WANT to fly from NCL regardless... Alas, I'm not yet fully in charge of holidays although people tend to come to me and I do my damnedest to get them flights from NCL.
One thing we always stick to though is that if we're flying long haul (so far we've only gone east) we always fly EK from NCL. And I've decided that so far KL is my airline of choice for Europe. Yet to try BA proper, only done Cityflyer on the LCY-EDI leg.
What's the chances FR could make us work? They just offer so much capacity so cheap I think one or two aircraft could be good for us.
One thing we always stick to though is that if we're flying long haul (so far we've only gone east) we always fly EK from NCL. And I've decided that so far KL is my airline of choice for Europe. Yet to try BA proper, only done Cityflyer on the LCY-EDI leg.
What's the chances FR could make us work? They just offer so much capacity so cheap I think one or two aircraft could be good for us.
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What could FR bring to the table that NCL doesn't already have? Flooding the market will trash yeilds and potentially cause Jet2, Thomson, Thomas Cool and easyJet, all of who have had stable bases at NCL for many a year to consider their position. They could shrink or go completely and FR will vanish as soon as its startup incentives have gone. Smaller FR bases are not stable, they come and go. I really don't see the obsession with tails and points on a map. It's jobs, in the airport and local supply chain and profitability for the airport owners which is what is really important.
Last edited by INeedTheFull90; 3rd Dec 2014 at 17:06.
The only hope would be for FR to try something different and with their low cost base and brand recognition make it work by adding new customers or pulling back those currently going elsewhere - otherwise you are just dividing the same pot amongst a bigger group.
However, that's an unlikely approach and I agree that any FR base might not be great long term.
However, that's an unlikely approach and I agree that any FR base might not be great long term.
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Travelling to another airport rather than Newcastle is not always the cheapest option, even if using loco airlines. I need to go to Madrid in April for a few days. I have looked at all the options, even driving to Stansted and staying overnight with my daiughter who lives near there. And the cheapest flight is still BA from Newcastle, when you add in the extra costs you need to add with loco airlines.
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From my experience (nearly 24 years working and then owning one) as a travel agent, 95% of people from southern Northumberland and Tyne & Wear do not want to drive elsewhere for a flight. "Why drive when there is an airport on my doorstep".
Last week I flew NCL-BRS overnight in a B&B and then BRS-FAO early on the Saturday morning, I flew direct back to NCL on the following Tuesday, not because of cost (it ended up £40 more with cost of accom) but because the flight times were much more convienient for me. Everyone else who I met out in Portugal thought I was nuts! They were on the Saturday evening flight and arrived at the hotel gone 11pm, I had an afternoon on the marina watching the Newcastle match whilst waiting for them!
I would love to fly ex NCL everytime but it is not always possible because of limitations on routes, frequencies and timings. I am also realistic to know that not every route will work and tour ops / airlines will only offer what they know makes money. We are a hell of a lot better off now then what we were in the late 80's / early 90's when we had 1 based Britannia 737 and 1 based Dan Air 737 for charter use
Last week I flew NCL-BRS overnight in a B&B and then BRS-FAO early on the Saturday morning, I flew direct back to NCL on the following Tuesday, not because of cost (it ended up £40 more with cost of accom) but because the flight times were much more convienient for me. Everyone else who I met out in Portugal thought I was nuts! They were on the Saturday evening flight and arrived at the hotel gone 11pm, I had an afternoon on the marina watching the Newcastle match whilst waiting for them!
I would love to fly ex NCL everytime but it is not always possible because of limitations on routes, frequencies and timings. I am also realistic to know that not every route will work and tour ops / airlines will only offer what they know makes money. We are a hell of a lot better off now then what we were in the late 80's / early 90's when we had 1 based Britannia 737 and 1 based Dan Air 737 for charter use
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While it may have been one 737 each from Dan Air and Britannia in the winter, summer wasn't that bad! Two Britannia 737's, 1 DA 737-200 and 1 DA 737-400 were based in summer 1990. Joined by an Air Uk leisure 737-400 and an air 2000 757 both from Thursday-Sunday! I'll get my coat....
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Paramount had an Md83 in 88, 737 in 89. Gave the chronicle/journal a story every week with their 24+ hour delays but provided loads of sub-charters when the 737 wasn't delivered in time for May 89. Anyway (to avoid being moved to history and nostalgia) apd - with two kids under 12 my holiday from Newcastle will be a bit cheaper next year!