NEWCASTLE - 8
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
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-using my phone so I'm sorry for any errors-
I didn't infer TOM were decreasing for 2015 but since 2012 (I think) when it was all 757, there is a decrease, although I have discounted 2011's anomaly by which I mean we had 4 TCX 757's, not all 235 seaters but still a canny bit. If you look on the upside, in a few years we should have the 235 seater A321neo and in about 20-25 years we might have the 200 seater MAX from LS.
It was my understanding that next year we go from 4 733 and 2 752 to 3 733 and 3 738, so actually the Jet2 loss will not be substantial.
The 2 new routes each from TOM and TCX come from (as far as I can tell) gaps in the schedules and a few being dropped, and TOM's now cancelled use of other airlines has been covered. LS's new routes and increases also cone from gaps along with reduction in frequency, for example on FAO and I swear LPA and HER have lost frequency. Also increased use of ALC aircraft. I think if anything Jet2's net increase will be about 2-3 per week if that.
Looking quite far ahead but I hope for 2016 we might finally see LS giving us the 8 aircraft we have been promised, or TOM going to 4 or TCX swapping the A320 for A321.
In terms of long haul, could there be demand for Mexico's west coast? Or a return to the Dominican Republic? India or Thailand could be a good shout but there would be no real benefits since we have EK. I don't think it would be a success nowadays. TCX might give something a go but I don't know where, and hopefully Jet2 one day might do Florida. We do have Montego Bay coming online though for the winter which is good, and it's already loaded for next winter too so fingers crossed for good loads, just a bit if a shame it's on the 767 not 787 which seems a bit weird.
I don't think well see anything from Flybe or Bmi, but I'd like to see Flybe do Tegel. Milan is another burning route that pisses me off a bit that we don't have it.
I didn't infer TOM were decreasing for 2015 but since 2012 (I think) when it was all 757, there is a decrease, although I have discounted 2011's anomaly by which I mean we had 4 TCX 757's, not all 235 seaters but still a canny bit. If you look on the upside, in a few years we should have the 235 seater A321neo and in about 20-25 years we might have the 200 seater MAX from LS.
It was my understanding that next year we go from 4 733 and 2 752 to 3 733 and 3 738, so actually the Jet2 loss will not be substantial.
The 2 new routes each from TOM and TCX come from (as far as I can tell) gaps in the schedules and a few being dropped, and TOM's now cancelled use of other airlines has been covered. LS's new routes and increases also cone from gaps along with reduction in frequency, for example on FAO and I swear LPA and HER have lost frequency. Also increased use of ALC aircraft. I think if anything Jet2's net increase will be about 2-3 per week if that.
Looking quite far ahead but I hope for 2016 we might finally see LS giving us the 8 aircraft we have been promised, or TOM going to 4 or TCX swapping the A320 for A321.
In terms of long haul, could there be demand for Mexico's west coast? Or a return to the Dominican Republic? India or Thailand could be a good shout but there would be no real benefits since we have EK. I don't think it would be a success nowadays. TCX might give something a go but I don't know where, and hopefully Jet2 one day might do Florida. We do have Montego Bay coming online though for the winter which is good, and it's already loaded for next winter too so fingers crossed for good loads, just a bit if a shame it's on the 767 not 787 which seems a bit weird.
I don't think well see anything from Flybe or Bmi, but I'd like to see Flybe do Tegel. Milan is another burning route that pisses me off a bit that we don't have it.
Join Date: Nov 2012
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EK you honestly give me a chuckle with your posts, they are rather optimistic to say the least.
Thing is, charter isn't what it was pre-2008 and nor will it be for a long while if ever, the damage from the good old 4x 757 TCXA days has been done over 4 years ago so moaning about that now is nothing but silly.
Next year we have 3x Jet2 738s and one less 733 so actually it's a slight increase and to be fair, anyone who expected the 757s to live on at BY/TOM at NCL based aircraft until the end are wrong, we know we are in one of the poorer areas on the route map, the demand and economic pull is all upon Manchester and Gatwick.
Overall next year should be a slight up, people moaning about the 757s need to realise that with all their might and beauty, they wouldn't live on forever and we are getting quite a good deal, we will see marginal increases but anything major? Probably not for few years.
Why can't we just stop making rubbish up and accept we are no LHR, we've got a good whack as it is and moaning or fanticising over tosh at this rate is actually rather annoying.
Be positive!
Thing is, charter isn't what it was pre-2008 and nor will it be for a long while if ever, the damage from the good old 4x 757 TCXA days has been done over 4 years ago so moaning about that now is nothing but silly.
Next year we have 3x Jet2 738s and one less 733 so actually it's a slight increase and to be fair, anyone who expected the 757s to live on at BY/TOM at NCL based aircraft until the end are wrong, we know we are in one of the poorer areas on the route map, the demand and economic pull is all upon Manchester and Gatwick.
Overall next year should be a slight up, people moaning about the 757s need to realise that with all their might and beauty, they wouldn't live on forever and we are getting quite a good deal, we will see marginal increases but anything major? Probably not for few years.
Why can't we just stop making rubbish up and accept we are no LHR, we've got a good whack as it is and moaning or fanticising over tosh at this rate is actually rather annoying.
Be positive!
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Can't see TCX doing long haul from Newcastle, they have already stated that Manchester is their hub and then a few flights ex LGW and a handful from GLA, BFS & STN in peak summer.
I don't think we will be high up Thomson's list for increase either, if anywhere will get more L/H from them it is likely to be BHX & GLA before NCL. For a small catchment area we do really well to have the Dubai and next year's EWR service so I think we should be really pleased with what we have.
I have loads of destinations I would love to see from here but they ain't going to happen when airlines know they can make fortunes from flights to the Costa's and Canaries where many people from up here love!
I don't think we will be high up Thomson's list for increase either, if anywhere will get more L/H from them it is likely to be BHX & GLA before NCL. For a small catchment area we do really well to have the Dubai and next year's EWR service so I think we should be really pleased with what we have.
I have loads of destinations I would love to see from here but they ain't going to happen when airlines know they can make fortunes from flights to the Costa's and Canaries where many people from up here love!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
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Don't get me wrong it's not that I'm ungrateful or expected year on year on year increases from all the charter carriers, but I would have thought that some more frequencies might have been added, maybe by bringing in other operators such as Onur Air and Air Europa (as TOM were going to). It is also just sentimentality I will miss the 757 [being easily available] from Newcastle.
Join Date: Oct 2006
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I would have thought that the main pre-occupation at the moment at Newcastle is if the Scottish Government get the powers to change the Air Passenger Duty (APD) not squabbling about the proposed fleet changes of Jet2 and Thomas Cook. If they do decide to reduce the APD and with the proposed upgrade of the A1 then you may well have a problem with passenger numbers.
Join Date: Apr 2014
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Agreed that there are far more pressing issues than Jet2 composition, the launch of new routes such as the Scottish. They've already shut down Manston and will soon decimate NCL whilst the Scottish state run PIK trundles along nicely.
This is the biggest threat to NCL in its history. It is a bigger issue than worrying about which model of 777 EK is using, how many 757s will be based there, how many planes will have winglets and how much the EWR flight costs.
This is major. This is catastrophic. I've seen talk on here eluding to passenger numbers and NCLs risk of losing its position as #10 to EMA.
You're about to see it PLUNGE further down the list. Priorities people.
This is the biggest threat to NCL in its history. It is a bigger issue than worrying about which model of 777 EK is using, how many 757s will be based there, how many planes will have winglets and how much the EWR flight costs.
This is major. This is catastrophic. I've seen talk on here eluding to passenger numbers and NCLs risk of losing its position as #10 to EMA.
You're about to see it PLUNGE further down the list. Priorities people.
Join Date: Apr 2010
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there is absolutely no evidence that APD affects the amount of flying people do - its a total red herring
and how many people are going to drive to & back from EDI to save a few quid???
Newcastle's problems are that it is a relatively small catchment area cp somewhere like MAN and the people who live here aren't that well off
Not much you can do about either TBH
and how many people are going to drive to & back from EDI to save a few quid???
Newcastle's problems are that it is a relatively small catchment area cp somewhere like MAN and the people who live here aren't that well off
Not much you can do about either TBH
Join Date: Apr 2014
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Oh come on, it has to have an affect. People who would drive a few hours to NCL to get a cheaper ticket may as well continue to EDI or GLA. For a family of four it's nearly a £60 saving for a short flight, it's many hundreds for long haul. This is the start of the end for NCL's limited long haul holiday flights.
Furthermore, the long summer NCL enjoys with scottish coming here for cheaper flights in their summer holidays and half term will likely end.
Aircraft will move north as you can charge the same fare and make at least £13 a head more on an outbound flight so based units in NCL will likely reduce substantially.
I see the LS base reducing by 2/3 units, EJ closing (bet some of you in here will be loving that), TOM/TCX reducing based units or cutting the flying programme and NCL will be a shadow of its former self. There will be no return of flyBE and any new airlines operating into NCL will likely just serve edi where they can benefit from both inward tourism and better margins.
I've seen the airport quoted in many recent news articles and they have been warning of the impacts of devolving APD long before the independance vote.
APD does have an impact. CO threatened to pull out of BFS because of it, and the route now benefits from £0 APD and is continuing. FR made a fuss with Ireland for the same of a few Euro APD and now they've managed to abolish it.
Furthermore, the long summer NCL enjoys with scottish coming here for cheaper flights in their summer holidays and half term will likely end.
Aircraft will move north as you can charge the same fare and make at least £13 a head more on an outbound flight so based units in NCL will likely reduce substantially.
I see the LS base reducing by 2/3 units, EJ closing (bet some of you in here will be loving that), TOM/TCX reducing based units or cutting the flying programme and NCL will be a shadow of its former self. There will be no return of flyBE and any new airlines operating into NCL will likely just serve edi where they can benefit from both inward tourism and better margins.
I've seen the airport quoted in many recent news articles and they have been warning of the impacts of devolving APD long before the independance vote.
APD does have an impact. CO threatened to pull out of BFS because of it, and the route now benefits from £0 APD and is continuing. FR made a fuss with Ireland for the same of a few Euro APD and now they've managed to abolish it.
Join Date: Jul 2007
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The problem will be when families in the Scottish borders who could go either way, ie EDI or NCL find that without the APD at EDI it is cheaper to head north rather than south to NCL. In fact I know of friends and family who will travel to NCL from East Lothian, 100 miles if the deal ex NCL is good, inc flight times but that might change if the APD is abolished in Scotland.
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Even is APD is abolished, there is nothing to say that airlines will be passing on the savings to the passengers. In theory they could just ramp the fare prices up and make more ££££. If they do see an increase of passengers numbers, fares are bound to increase anyway...supply and demand and all that.
If they do see an increase of passengers numbers, fares are bound to increase anyway
Some of the comments here are a bit over the top, although a reduction of APD in Scotland would be an issue for NCL. People will certainly travel north if the price is right.
Join Date: Feb 2014
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Does anyone from Newcastle and the north of England use NCL or is it exclusivity for Scottish passengers? Reading the OTT reaction on here you'd think NCL was entirely dependant on Scottish passengers who will drive for 3 hours to save £10. Bloody Scotch and bloody dramatic Northerners. 
Calm down guys. APD will have little effect on NCL. If any English airport is effected in anyway, MAN will probably feel it more than NCL. From those cheap Scots driving 4 hours to save £10.
Calm down guys. APD will have little effect on NCL. If any English airport is effected in anyway, MAN will probably feel it more than NCL. From those cheap Scots driving 4 hours to save £10.
Join Date: Feb 2005
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APD
I must admit that a zero APD rate at Edinburgh would be not be fare on the rest of the UK especially Newcastle. If Newcastle was made a special case because of it and was lower rated then Durham and Leeds will be crying not fare.
Edinburgh is sill a part of Great Britain and needs to compete on the same terms. It is not the same as special arrangements being made for Belfast v Dublin.
Centre cities
Edinburgh is sill a part of Great Britain and needs to compete on the same terms. It is not the same as special arrangements being made for Belfast v Dublin.
Centre cities
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^^ Why would APD only be reduced at EDI and not other Scottish Airports?
Looking at the demographics and routes on offer, I would guess GLA provides a more attraction choice of routes to those in the north of England than what EDI does.
Looking at the demographics and routes on offer, I would guess GLA provides a more attraction choice of routes to those in the north of England than what EDI does.
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I would guess GLA provides a more attraction choice of routes to those in the north of England than what EDI does.
Let's check the surface mileages.
Newcastle to GLA = 157 miles
Newcastle to EDI = 110 miles
fwiw I doubt either EDI or GLA will benefit from any NCL imbalance of APD levies.
Join Date: Dec 2011
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I would have thought that the main pre-occupation at the moment at Newcastle is if the Scottish Government get the powers to change the Air Passenger Duty (APD) not squabbling about the proposed fleet changes of Jet2 and Thomas Cook. If they do decide to reduce the APD and with the proposed upgrade of the A1 then you may well have a problem with passenger numbers.
There's a lot of assumption that the Scottish Executive would scrap APD, but it is by no means a forgone conclusion.
As for the A1 improvements, they are way into the future. Also, the dualling is only as far as Ellington. Ellington-Edinburgh remains single carriageway. Then there's the Edinburgh south bypass to negotiate if heading for Turnhouse.....
there is absolutely no evidence that APD affects the amount of flying people do - its a total red herring
and how many people are going to drive to & back from EDI to save a few quid???
Have the laws of supply and demand changed recently?
Some of the comments here are a bit over the top, although a reduction of APD in Scotland would be an issue for NCL. People will certainly travel north if the price is right.
Some of the comments here are a bit over the top, although a reduction of APD in Scotland would be an issue for NCL. People will certainly travel north if the price is right.
There's also no evidence that carriers will pass on any savings if there's a likelihood that could get away with not doing so.
The issue is far from cut and dry.
The best thing Osborne can do is to scrap APD for the entire UK before it can be devolved. Job done, sorted, case closed.