Is pilot job market picking up at all??
Yardmaster,
You make some relevant points but fortunately/unfortunately* (*delete as you feel appropriate), WWW has a good track record on the economic front - at least since I have been following pprune.
You make some relevant points but fortunately/unfortunately* (*delete as you feel appropriate), WWW has a good track record on the economic front - at least since I have been following pprune.
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WWW, you and I should be put down, as we have introduced a negative slant on this positive discussion.
KAG, thank you for your help but we should be spurring these young guys on to train as quickly as possible, and we should be protecting them from doubt and alternative viewpoints.
Then when Ryanair and easyJet (in the next 2 years) stop expanding they can head out to China (until they have enough capacity to train their countrymen, at which point they will be given a handshake and a P45).
KAG, thank you for your help but we should be spurring these young guys on to train as quickly as possible, and we should be protecting them from doubt and alternative viewpoints.
Then when Ryanair and easyJet (in the next 2 years) stop expanding they can head out to China (until they have enough capacity to train their countrymen, at which point they will be given a handshake and a P45).
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KAG
Its a lot of BS out there on the internett, you should filter some out and not believe every single thing you read.
So, lets say oil will go up to 200$. According to you, NO ONE will fly then, am I right?
So, oil prices going up by 30%. Ticket prices will go up by... lets say 10% (oil is not only expenses of companies, so they dont affect prices alone).
Let me ask you a question. What would YOU do (and anyone reasonable) in that situation:
a) Loose some millions dollars, and then go bankrupt with company, you had for 10-20 years.
b) Increase ticket price with 5-10% (from 100 to 110$), have profit and continue making money?!
Now, you think passengers, that did fly with your airline (and not someone else) for last 5-10 years, will go to a different carrier, because of those 10$? I can guarantee you, no they would not (basic psychology, we do what we are used to).
And last, comanies have other ways to cut the bill down, by setting down pay-checks, cutting down on food, service and so on.
As I said, do not believe everything you read on internett. Way to much BS. Do some thinking on your own.
And just to top it off. Latest new from kingdom of Norway.
Norwegian had 12% more passengers in february, then in the last year.
SAS is increasing their prices by 5 euro (that makes it ≈4.5%), because of high oil prices.
Funny... they think the way I do, and choose to increase prices instead of going bankrupt...
Its a lot of BS out there on the internett, you should filter some out and not believe every single thing you read.
So, lets say oil will go up to 200$. According to you, NO ONE will fly then, am I right?
So, oil prices going up by 30%. Ticket prices will go up by... lets say 10% (oil is not only expenses of companies, so they dont affect prices alone).
Let me ask you a question. What would YOU do (and anyone reasonable) in that situation:
a) Loose some millions dollars, and then go bankrupt with company, you had for 10-20 years.
b) Increase ticket price with 5-10% (from 100 to 110$), have profit and continue making money?!
Now, you think passengers, that did fly with your airline (and not someone else) for last 5-10 years, will go to a different carrier, because of those 10$? I can guarantee you, no they would not (basic psychology, we do what we are used to).
And last, comanies have other ways to cut the bill down, by setting down pay-checks, cutting down on food, service and so on.
As I said, do not believe everything you read on internett. Way to much BS. Do some thinking on your own.
And just to top it off. Latest new from kingdom of Norway.
Norwegian had 12% more passengers in february, then in the last year.
SAS is increasing their prices by 5 euro (that makes it ≈4.5%), because of high oil prices.
Funny... they think the way I do, and choose to increase prices instead of going bankrupt...
Last edited by cefey; 8th Mar 2011 at 12:38.
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Sorry if you took offense, and a dose of negativity/realism is good for the aspiring pilots, such as myself, reading this forum.
However I think the bearishness sometimes gets to a ridiculous level.
The world's population is continueing to grow, economies are growing and more can afford to fly. If this is not the case we are all scr*wed, no matter what industry we are in!
There is no armageddon as long as Airlines offer the only practical way of travelling any journey above c500 miles.
The long term trend of the airlines has been growth, often rapid growth. Nothing fundamental has changed and it will continue, with cyclical volatility, untill someone invents the teleport.
However I think the bearishness sometimes gets to a ridiculous level.
The world's population is continueing to grow, economies are growing and more can afford to fly. If this is not the case we are all scr*wed, no matter what industry we are in!
There is no armageddon as long as Airlines offer the only practical way of travelling any journey above c500 miles.
The long term trend of the airlines has been growth, often rapid growth. Nothing fundamental has changed and it will continue, with cyclical volatility, untill someone invents the teleport.
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It's one of things I suppose, people are over optimistic about this so others are overly pessimistic. Both sides are likely to be right about some things, and wrong about others.
I accept that flying is the only reasonable way of travelling long distances, but I would say that the market has been proved before to be very sensitive to price fluctuations, and while it would be utterly absurd to say that people will stop flying altogether, it doesn't take much for businesses to start preferring video conference calls (or whatever new-fangled technology they use nowadays) or for couples to decide to have their weekend break at home, or even worse not to take it at all - that's all it takes to cause chaos in aviation! Then, as I say, I don't think for one minute the whole sector will shut down, but the amount of flying will become unsustainable and we're back in 2008 before there's been a proper boom.
And cefey,
You make it sound like airlines choose to keep losing money and go bankrupt. In that case, you are very misguided, do you think any airline has ever decided that instead of raising fares they'll just go bankrupt? It happens because of market conditions, don't be so naive to think it's a conscious decision. Companies go bust because someone is doing it cheaper than they are.
I'm sorry to say that airlines have pretty much cut out everything they can to reduce ticket prices, all that remains is to ask whether somebody wants an outside or and inside seat. Do some looking at how many short-haul services include food and drinks, do not charge for baggage, do not charge for payment methods, and you may be surprised.
If flying does expand in the already overcrowded European marketplace, you may find salaries and T&C's nosediving. Think about that before you spend your £80,000.
I accept that flying is the only reasonable way of travelling long distances, but I would say that the market has been proved before to be very sensitive to price fluctuations, and while it would be utterly absurd to say that people will stop flying altogether, it doesn't take much for businesses to start preferring video conference calls (or whatever new-fangled technology they use nowadays) or for couples to decide to have their weekend break at home, or even worse not to take it at all - that's all it takes to cause chaos in aviation! Then, as I say, I don't think for one minute the whole sector will shut down, but the amount of flying will become unsustainable and we're back in 2008 before there's been a proper boom.
And cefey,
You make it sound like airlines choose to keep losing money and go bankrupt. In that case, you are very misguided, do you think any airline has ever decided that instead of raising fares they'll just go bankrupt? It happens because of market conditions, don't be so naive to think it's a conscious decision. Companies go bust because someone is doing it cheaper than they are.
I'm sorry to say that airlines have pretty much cut out everything they can to reduce ticket prices, all that remains is to ask whether somebody wants an outside or and inside seat. Do some looking at how many short-haul services include food and drinks, do not charge for baggage, do not charge for payment methods, and you may be surprised.
If flying does expand in the already overcrowded European marketplace, you may find salaries and T&C's nosediving. Think about that before you spend your £80,000.
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170to5
Well, ofcourse oil will affect companies in some way. But imo not even close, to what KAG try to make it too.
like "During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations."
Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
Now, its not me, that make it sound like companies choose to loose money. That KOGs words. What I say, companies will increase ticket prices with 5-10%, for each 30% increase in oil prices.
I dont say market will be awesome in 2-3 years and gonna stay that way forever.
But in 2-3 years, it will be "normal". That means you most likely still gonna need to work as CFI or something to build some experience first, but then you will be able to get a job.
Unless something big happens (9/11, crisis) or something big positive, market will stay that way and will be regulated by how many pilots quite/how many new get their licenses.
Its still will be expansion in fleets. Maybe not that much at Ryanair. But hey, there is still 10.000-20.000 other airliners but them.
As well, you have to consider, where are you willing to work. If you no way can move away from UK, then yes, you limit your opportunities. If you are willing to move to Italy or Spain (I would LOVE to do that!) or any other countries in europe, then suddenly market is much better.
Then you have to look at, are you willing to evt. pay for your type (another 20.000$, after spending 80.000)?
Another point to look at, are you willing to start at turboprop or you are "737 only"?!
If you are kind of guy, looking to get job after getting JAA ATPL with 200hrs, no MCC or Type (and you are not willing to pay for it), you looking at jobs only in the UK and only in heavy jets, then you are right guys, market will be very bad.
In other hand, if you do you CFI and get 1000+ hours, get your MCC, may be willing to pay for type, take your first job anywhere in europe and can start on Let, Dash or something like that... you will find that there is huge market for new pilots in 2-3 years.
Maybe Im wrong... but lets hope Im not
Well, ofcourse oil will affect companies in some way. But imo not even close, to what KAG try to make it too.
like "During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations."
Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
Now, its not me, that make it sound like companies choose to loose money. That KOGs words. What I say, companies will increase ticket prices with 5-10%, for each 30% increase in oil prices.
I dont say market will be awesome in 2-3 years and gonna stay that way forever.
But in 2-3 years, it will be "normal". That means you most likely still gonna need to work as CFI or something to build some experience first, but then you will be able to get a job.
Unless something big happens (9/11, crisis) or something big positive, market will stay that way and will be regulated by how many pilots quite/how many new get their licenses.
Its still will be expansion in fleets. Maybe not that much at Ryanair. But hey, there is still 10.000-20.000 other airliners but them.
As well, you have to consider, where are you willing to work. If you no way can move away from UK, then yes, you limit your opportunities. If you are willing to move to Italy or Spain (I would LOVE to do that!) or any other countries in europe, then suddenly market is much better.
Then you have to look at, are you willing to evt. pay for your type (another 20.000$, after spending 80.000)?
Another point to look at, are you willing to start at turboprop or you are "737 only"?!
If you are kind of guy, looking to get job after getting JAA ATPL with 200hrs, no MCC or Type (and you are not willing to pay for it), you looking at jobs only in the UK and only in heavy jets, then you are right guys, market will be very bad.
In other hand, if you do you CFI and get 1000+ hours, get your MCC, may be willing to pay for type, take your first job anywhere in europe and can start on Let, Dash or something like that... you will find that there is huge market for new pilots in 2-3 years.
Maybe Im wrong... but lets hope Im not
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I totally agree with cefey. Market can't be always bad. It's already 3-4 years into the economic crisis; within 2 year it will get better. It is already picking up slowly. Just be patient and willing to work anywhere, even in Africa, Asia and Latin America if you have a good command of spanish.
However, this is a very difficult market. The aviation industry is one of the first industries to fall in crisis each 5 years (terrorism, economic, war, epidemic), and one of the last to get out of it.
However, this is a very difficult market. The aviation industry is one of the first industries to fall in crisis each 5 years (terrorism, economic, war, epidemic), and one of the last to get out of it.
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It not just a questions as to whether the market picks up.... its is also a question as to whether the stucture of T&Cs once it picks up makes being a pilot a viable career choice for the next 20 years or so.
That is something that unfortunately the typical 18-22 yr old bracket has little perspective on because of a lack of life experience. Thats not meant as a criticism... I was very much the same at that age.
That is something that unfortunately the typical 18-22 yr old bracket has little perspective on because of a lack of life experience. Thats not meant as a criticism... I was very much the same at that age.
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Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
Ok I ve got to fly, cheers.
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instructor or not, the market is the same for everybody.
as long airlines don't hire, flight schools have problems to train their students. Students will delay their training, etc.resulting no or less job for flight instructors.
in UK, I have many friends who were instructors, they had to give up, it doesn't pay enough for a living.
the main problem in this profession are the salaries, they are too low.
It's not possible to start in this profession anymore, training is too expensive.
whatever you choose in aviation, you are screwed.I was a captain, it' s harder and harder for us to find a job and have a decent life.Soon, captains will have to pay to fly. Some of my friends pay already for their sim check, hotels,...
To fly is wonderful but this profession became
.
as long airlines don't hire, flight schools have problems to train their students. Students will delay their training, etc.resulting no or less job for flight instructors.
in UK, I have many friends who were instructors, they had to give up, it doesn't pay enough for a living.
the main problem in this profession are the salaries, they are too low.
It's not possible to start in this profession anymore, training is too expensive.
whatever you choose in aviation, you are screwed.I was a captain, it' s harder and harder for us to find a job and have a decent life.Soon, captains will have to pay to fly. Some of my friends pay already for their sim check, hotels,...
To fly is wonderful but this profession became
.
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It is sad that profession came to this when you consider the amount of skill and knowledge you need to be a pilot and then you end up paying to fly as well.
I am so glad that forums like this exist and you can talk to others in similar situation.
Being in my forties is not going to help with job search either so I will definitely stick to CPL and maybe part time instructing to keep my flying skills. Unless someone on this forum could advise that I am wrong and CPL/IR/ME 40 year old chap is employable without having to buy type ratings or Ryanairs pyramid schemes etc.?
To be frank, being only small time pilot and successful in another profession but probably a bit naive for airline industry, I cant believe it is legal to employ people and make them pay to work. Soon there will be a scheme where pilots will pay for passenger tickets as well so airlines can attract more customers . Maybe we could all brainstorm on how airline managements can make more money out of us ...
I am so glad that forums like this exist and you can talk to others in similar situation.
Being in my forties is not going to help with job search either so I will definitely stick to CPL and maybe part time instructing to keep my flying skills. Unless someone on this forum could advise that I am wrong and CPL/IR/ME 40 year old chap is employable without having to buy type ratings or Ryanairs pyramid schemes etc.?
To be frank, being only small time pilot and successful in another profession but probably a bit naive for airline industry, I cant believe it is legal to employ people and make them pay to work. Soon there will be a scheme where pilots will pay for passenger tickets as well so airlines can attract more customers . Maybe we could all brainstorm on how airline managements can make more money out of us ...
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volunteerpilot
I do know my self, several guys, that did work hard and got their jobs.
One guy I know, after getting his FAA CPL ME IR is now flying in Brasil and enjoying life. Sure, he dont make tons of money. But enough to pay down his loans, pay for apartment, food and get drunk now and then.
Other guy, worked as CFI in US and UAE for 4 years. Now he is about to start at Lufthansa.
3rd guy, got his FAA CPL ME IR, now he is doing his JAA fATPL, after that, he will start for turkish airlines, since he has some friends there. (he is around 47yo btw)
This is just some of the stories. I know many more guys that have succeeded and enjoy pilot-life.
As well, I do know many guys, who paid 50-80k for education and now back where they started. Working on factory/gas station/grocery store. They keep complaining about bad marked and "hoping for better times".
Who are you listening to? A guy who calls him self "captainsuperstorm" on some forum? Do you even know, if he is a capt.? If he is a man? Maybe its just some 14yo forum troll having fun. I have never seen him helping anyone with any aviation questions... just whining around about bad marked....
But even if he is capt. You really on a guy saying "dont do you pilot education, marked will be worse and worse forever! In 10-15 years only pilots will be sons of 1000 richest people on the planet!". A guy who in no way can know, how is marked for fresh pilots!!!
Search for pilot jobs on internett. Many places there is requirement of 300-500TT. Get a job there. Work there for some years and then go for big airliner, which require 1500-2000TT.
I do know my self, several guys, that did work hard and got their jobs.
One guy I know, after getting his FAA CPL ME IR is now flying in Brasil and enjoying life. Sure, he dont make tons of money. But enough to pay down his loans, pay for apartment, food and get drunk now and then.
Other guy, worked as CFI in US and UAE for 4 years. Now he is about to start at Lufthansa.
3rd guy, got his FAA CPL ME IR, now he is doing his JAA fATPL, after that, he will start for turkish airlines, since he has some friends there. (he is around 47yo btw)
This is just some of the stories. I know many more guys that have succeeded and enjoy pilot-life.
As well, I do know many guys, who paid 50-80k for education and now back where they started. Working on factory/gas station/grocery store. They keep complaining about bad marked and "hoping for better times".
Who are you listening to? A guy who calls him self "captainsuperstorm" on some forum? Do you even know, if he is a capt.? If he is a man? Maybe its just some 14yo forum troll having fun. I have never seen him helping anyone with any aviation questions... just whining around about bad marked....
But even if he is capt. You really on a guy saying "dont do you pilot education, marked will be worse and worse forever! In 10-15 years only pilots will be sons of 1000 richest people on the planet!". A guy who in no way can know, how is marked for fresh pilots!!!
Search for pilot jobs on internett. Many places there is requirement of 300-500TT. Get a job there. Work there for some years and then go for big airliner, which require 1500-2000TT.
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Ok Cefey. Great. I am sure your positive attitude and good influence would convince a few more hundreds individuals to join our industry. Good job.
Positive attitude is great, especially when you are not responsible for anything or anybody.
How many students have you trained? How long have you been in this industry? Or maybe are you a wannabe who wants to reassure himself? If so don't put everybody in your personal boat. You are in charge of your life, that's all.
And I don't know the meaning of optimism in poetry or litterature, but this is aviation industry here.
We don't say in the briefing room: look this TAF, RVR is too low, sure, but what a challenge right? Let's go! And we don't need that much fuel, we will try to fly in outer space to save some. Look at our alternate, heavy snow, what you don't like snow we can play with snow balls after our arrival!!!
Your posts seem completely out of reality. You even deny the fuel major influence on the aviation industry in 2008, I think you have no clue about what's going on.
Ok I am going to tell you what is optimism in our career: this is to do everything to stay alive, or not make any foolish decision. This is to make everything you can to be well trained, informed, and never take anything for granted.
This is our industry.
If you want to hear: great, let's go! It will be fine! Let's do it! Future is bright! No cloud at all! Then go in the finance field. In our industry you will be paid to stay alive, not to be optimistic about the environment you cannot control.
Positive attitude is great, especially when you are not responsible for anything or anybody.
How many students have you trained? How long have you been in this industry? Or maybe are you a wannabe who wants to reassure himself? If so don't put everybody in your personal boat. You are in charge of your life, that's all.
And I don't know the meaning of optimism in poetry or litterature, but this is aviation industry here.
We don't say in the briefing room: look this TAF, RVR is too low, sure, but what a challenge right? Let's go! And we don't need that much fuel, we will try to fly in outer space to save some. Look at our alternate, heavy snow, what you don't like snow we can play with snow balls after our arrival!!!
Your posts seem completely out of reality. You even deny the fuel major influence on the aviation industry in 2008, I think you have no clue about what's going on.
Ok I am going to tell you what is optimism in our career: this is to do everything to stay alive, or not make any foolish decision. This is to make everything you can to be well trained, informed, and never take anything for granted.
This is our industry.
If you want to hear: great, let's go! It will be fine! Let's do it! Future is bright! No cloud at all! Then go in the finance field. In our industry you will be paid to stay alive, not to be optimistic about the environment you cannot control.
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KAG
Of course we dont look at TAF, see low RVR and go.
We rather wait for Clear of clouds, 10SM vis, we need to do some pattern work. But we say "You know what, lets not take a chance. Who knows, maybe there is some wind shears. Lets go play on microsoft sim and be happy with that!"
I dont see any relevance in your comparison.
Go for pilot education is not the same is "go out and die".
Im not denying anything. I just showed you facts. You make it sound sooo big, "Whole 25 companies went bankrupt!!!!" reality? that between 0.012 and 0.12% of all companies. Like it or not, that FACTS.
You still havent answered my questions.
Would you cancel your vacation, which you budgeted for 1500$, because ticket prices increased from 150$ to 160$? (So, no your vacation would cost 1510$).
Do you think many other would? Many enough, for whole aviation industry to collapse?
2nd question
You still think, increase in oil prices and not the global crisis, that affected all industries and made many major banks and companies go bankrupt, is real cause for crisis in aviation industry?
With other words, US-economy collapse because off loans and stuff, major banks and companies going bankrupt. People loosing their jobs, houses. All industries going down BIG TIME, cutting down production, firing people.
All but one. Aviation industry is not affected at all by crisis, thats forced whole world down on knees. Well, to be fair, aviation industry have really bad times, exactly like the rest of the world, but not because of crisis, aviation industry is suffering because of high oil prices?
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.
Im not an optimist. Im a realist.
Is pilot market picking up?
Yes, it does.
Is it possible for an experienced pilot to get a job?
Yes, it is. Even for biggest and "best" companies.
Is it possible for low hour pilots get a job?
Very hard in big companies, but absolutely possible to get a job, to built hours.
Will pilot market continue to picking up?
Yes it will, if nothing major happens.
I dont clame that times will be amazing. Maybe. But tbh I doubt it. But market WILL be better then now. And it will be possible to get a job. Sure, you gonna have to work for it, nothing gonna come free.
But if you set your goal, work for it, is a little bit flexible, you'll get there.
Of course we dont look at TAF, see low RVR and go.
We rather wait for Clear of clouds, 10SM vis, we need to do some pattern work. But we say "You know what, lets not take a chance. Who knows, maybe there is some wind shears. Lets go play on microsoft sim and be happy with that!"
I dont see any relevance in your comparison.
Go for pilot education is not the same is "go out and die".
Im not denying anything. I just showed you facts. You make it sound sooo big, "Whole 25 companies went bankrupt!!!!" reality? that between 0.012 and 0.12% of all companies. Like it or not, that FACTS.
You still havent answered my questions.
Would you cancel your vacation, which you budgeted for 1500$, because ticket prices increased from 150$ to 160$? (So, no your vacation would cost 1510$).
Do you think many other would? Many enough, for whole aviation industry to collapse?
2nd question
You still think, increase in oil prices and not the global crisis, that affected all industries and made many major banks and companies go bankrupt, is real cause for crisis in aviation industry?
With other words, US-economy collapse because off loans and stuff, major banks and companies going bankrupt. People loosing their jobs, houses. All industries going down BIG TIME, cutting down production, firing people.
All but one. Aviation industry is not affected at all by crisis, thats forced whole world down on knees. Well, to be fair, aviation industry have really bad times, exactly like the rest of the world, but not because of crisis, aviation industry is suffering because of high oil prices?
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.
Im not an optimist. Im a realist.
Is pilot market picking up?
Yes, it does.
Is it possible for an experienced pilot to get a job?
Yes, it is. Even for biggest and "best" companies.
Is it possible for low hour pilots get a job?
Very hard in big companies, but absolutely possible to get a job, to built hours.
Will pilot market continue to picking up?
Yes it will, if nothing major happens.
I dont clame that times will be amazing. Maybe. But tbh I doubt it. But market WILL be better then now. And it will be possible to get a job. Sure, you gonna have to work for it, nothing gonna come free.
But if you set your goal, work for it, is a little bit flexible, you'll get there.
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Im not denying anything. I just showed you facts. You make it sound sooo big, "Whole 25 companies went bankrupt!!!!" reality? that between 0.012 and 0.12% of all companies. Like it or not, that FACTS.
You are in full denial.
You really want to speak about numbers? You say that there is
100 000 airlines in the world
1-they speak about first half of 2008 BEFORE THE BANK TURMOIL, DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
2-they speak about airlines, not about the daddy bush operation in Alaska, so forget about your 100 000 airlines number. Forget about your calculation
3-if you want to take all the commercial operation certificate in the world (bush, photo, para drop, medevac, small charter, float operation...), then do you beleive only 25 of them went to bankrupcy in 2008? Really?
3-have you heard about thousands of layoff, reduced capacities...?
4-finaly have you heard about 2008 at all? 2008 is not a troll on internet, cannot say the same thing about you.
The remaining part of your post looks like you are on drug.
What were you doing in 2008? What are you doing now? Maybe it would explain something, as you seem to live in an other world.
Aviation industry is not affected at all by crisis, thats forced whole world down on knees. Well, to be fair, aviation industry have really bad times, exactly like the rest of the world, but not because of crisis, aviation industry is suffering because of high oil prices?
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.
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So you know fancy words like denial and rationalizing. Good for you.
They can apply to you as well, when you are denying and rationalizing my post.
Only difference, I do, somehow backup my words with some fact. All you come up with, is 1 article and... and thats it.
Well, my bad, I count not the only first 6 month, but whole year.
Now, do you have numbers, how many airliners there is? What does IATA count as airliner?
What I did found is 10.000 (bigger airline carriers) and up to 100.000 if we count small one as well.
That why, I write 0.0012 to 0.12%. So, even with "only" 10.000 airliners, % that went bankrupt is still very, very, very low.
They can apply to you as well, when you are denying and rationalizing my post.
Only difference, I do, somehow backup my words with some fact. All you come up with, is 1 article and... and thats it.
Well, my bad, I count not the only first 6 month, but whole year.
Now, do you have numbers, how many airliners there is? What does IATA count as airliner?
What I did found is 10.000 (bigger airline carriers) and up to 100.000 if we count small one as well.
That why, I write 0.0012 to 0.12%. So, even with "only" 10.000 airliners, % that went bankrupt is still very, very, very low.
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They can apply to you as well, when you are denying and rationalizing my post.
Only difference, I do, somehow backup my words with some fact.
All you come up with, is 1 article and... and thats it.
Well, my bad, I count not the only first 6 month, but whole year.
Yes those article speak about the aviation recession and bankrupcy during the first 6 months of 2008, but you keep saying it 's not oil that put our industry down, but the bank crash, followed by the recession. Their were no bank turmoil the first half of 2008, which part you don't understand.
I was employed during 2008, and I followed everything step by step, like companies parking hundreds of airplanes due to high oil price, like airlines going to bankrupcy, other puting thousands of pilot on layoff, other cancelling all the order, other cancelling routes, almost all freezing all hiring begining of 2008 due to oil prices when the world economy was booming and the bank turmoil was yet to come.
Are you going to wake up? Why don't you decide to be honnest and do some research yourself?
And stop coming with numbers from nowhere.
If you speak about 10 000 (before it was 100 000, or 20 000 in your post...)airlines according to your definition, so you have to find out how many of them (those same 10 000, or 20 000 or 100 000 you keep changing) went to bankrupcy in 2008 to start to make some calculation, that's not middle age anymore, and studies have to be accurates.
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I am green behind the ears when it comes to aviation but travel very often in my job and must say that aircraft these days fly with about 30-40% of max capacity. Had a few flights to the USA and around Europe and it is always the same (would say max 50%).
But airlines know that some people will always fly and some train to be pilots.
Whilst studying ATPL theory, I met 2 guys who had a big inheritance and paying for CPLs and type ratings is easy for them. They would invest 150k or more but also get jobs more easily and soon recover the investment and enjoy the lifestyle.
For the rest of us, it is a mix of lottery and hard work. Guess, the best we can do is to keep informed through magazines, contacts and forums like this and try to be in the right place at the right time.
What chance would 40 year old CPL/IR/ME stand against 25 year old type rated with 500 hours airline flying?
Someone mentioned MPL earlier which will be done by OAA and Easy, I dread to think how much is that going to cost?
Even if you go for it, do you get 6 months contract with Easy at the end and then end up being elbowed out after 6 months as new batch of wannabes are coming in?
Anyone happens to know who are the masterminds behind these clever schemes?
But airlines know that some people will always fly and some train to be pilots.
Whilst studying ATPL theory, I met 2 guys who had a big inheritance and paying for CPLs and type ratings is easy for them. They would invest 150k or more but also get jobs more easily and soon recover the investment and enjoy the lifestyle.
For the rest of us, it is a mix of lottery and hard work. Guess, the best we can do is to keep informed through magazines, contacts and forums like this and try to be in the right place at the right time.
What chance would 40 year old CPL/IR/ME stand against 25 year old type rated with 500 hours airline flying?
Someone mentioned MPL earlier which will be done by OAA and Easy, I dread to think how much is that going to cost?
Even if you go for it, do you get 6 months contract with Easy at the end and then end up being elbowed out after 6 months as new batch of wannabes are coming in?
Anyone happens to know who are the masterminds behind these clever schemes?
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Anyone happens to know who are the masterminds behind these clever schemes?
here's a fact, there isn't one, there are guys with time on type that cant get a job, T&C's are continually going down the pan. wage rises ? while the interest rate is going up, most are on a freeze or reduction, tip, look in the T&E thread on the flybe discussion.
as for flying in Africa to build time before getting that well paid job with a legacy carrier in Europe.. African operators are wanting people with time on type, just seen an F/O job in Africa on a Lear requiring 3000 total time and 500 on type as a minimum. the cheap operations running clunkers are using close to run out Russian aircraft with Russian crews that cant get a job back home, and the non-clunker operators have a pick of a bunch of European guys with currency fast eroding so can pick and choose as well. oh and Africa has plenty of pilots looking for work too.
oh and look in the R&N thread at the EASA FTL proposal thread... pilots flying fatigued are looking at being pushed further..
Getting a job overseas is getting tougher as countries are pulling down their shutters on working visas for pilots.
And with the likes of MPL's being thrown into the mix, any potential of the current recruitment lines is going to be well and truly shut down as a bunch of idiots are going to be hog tied to an MPL that they cant use elsewhere, or drop out of an MPL to convert over to a CPL at additional cost to find that the doors are shut because operators have bucket load of MPL guys that cant afford to go elsewhere and are going to have to suck up what ever they are offered, no matter how poor, because its that or the classifieds for any job.
it may not be what you want to hear and its not pessimism.. its reality.
this thread is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
Last edited by stuckgear; 11th Mar 2011 at 23:10.