Is pilot job market picking up at all??

[zondaracer]

Airlines will always need pilots, but the real question is how many pilots vs how many jobs. Right now, lots of pilots and not as many jobs. When jobs are aplenty, you won't have to be as creative/work as hard/etc to get a job. But to say that there are no jobs is a gross exaggeration.

[timzsta]

If you want an airline job, borrow £100k, go integrated, apply to Ryanair or Easyjet, pay for your type rating immediately after getting your license issued.

That is the only way now and it will never ever change.

Otherwise get a PPL and fly on your days off when your not driving a Leyland for Arriva.

[Jugs08]

I have to agree. If you read Airliner World or Flight International there are lots of expanding fleets all over the world. The number of operational aircraft in the world is growing. The world population is growing. It seems to me as though some people expect it to be easy. Getting into a career isn't easy for anyone; yes some are lucky but most is through hard work. Seems to me asif you are that negative you shouldn't even post on here if you have that much resent towards and industry.

[captainsuperstorm]

at this time the real number is

1 job for 500 pilots.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Glass half full types out and about I see.

I'd appreciate a quick explanation of why normal economic theory is being brushed under the carpet in this discussion.

Where's the increase in remuneration if there's an expanding market but supposed constricted labour supply?

I talk to the agencies several times a week - no significant pay shifts other than for deeply unpopular hardship postings. Lots of posts - yes. Constricted supply - it appears to be the very early stages - but even then the deals seem more about improving perceived quality of life without real bottom line costs - rotations and so on.

Experienced pilots will be along shortly to counter, rebut or confirm large pay increases for experienced people to trigger the trickle down effect you are hoping for.

I've been through several aviation cycles now and it's still a tunnel with a glimmer in the distance if pay isn't moving. I would suggest that pressure on terms is still downwards because we still have a disastrous northern hemisphere summer of uncrewed services to go before the bonus fed echelons with the spreadsheets are forced to react to the market.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

From a UK perspective the two main sources of new airline jobs, Ryanair and easyJet, both stop expanding their fleets in the next two years. Do not underestimate that. Between them they have gone from 20 aircraft in 1997 to 450 aircraft now. That's an average of around 33 additional aircraft a year which is about the equivalent of a whole new Monarch or Britannia airlines per year.

When its back to dead mans shoes then the slowdown is going to feel violent.

Whilst the sandpit may entice some pilots to leave the UK there are a suprising number who wouldn't mind making the opposite journey for the right job. The military have a surplus of pilots which nobody seems in much of a hurry to employ.

Everywhere you look there is NO shortage of humans with commercial flying qualifications.

Interest rates will rise. Public sector jobs will be cut. House prices are falling.

Join the dots.


WWW

[170to5]

WWW, thanks for making the point that no-one else has so far. I think it is a point that may be overlooked when in reality it cannot be overstated.

[cefey]

WWW
Thats true, once companies reach their max fleet, it will say "stop" for pilots. However, it still would be possible to get a job. And not THAT hard neither.

1.1 Lets take a look at the situation we have now.
Its very hard to get a good job.
Even for experienced pilots.
For low-hour pilots "only" way is via CFi or job in africa for 2-3 years.

1.2 What was the situation 1.5 years ago?
It was impossible to get a job.
Even for experienced pilots.
Companies was cutting down their fleet and firing pilots.

Conclusion: Market is improving.
Now, lets take a look at the reasons:
3 years ago market was "awesome" and even low-hour pilots could get a job.
Then finance crises kicked inn.
Many companies went bankrupt, most people was short on money. Less people flew. Companies had to start cutting down on expenses, reducing their fleet (cause less people flew) ---> experienced pilots loosing jobs.
Many pilots with airline experience struggling to get a job. No market for "new pilots."

Now market is on the way back to normal. Experienced pilots got their job back. Pilots that "graduated" 2-3 years ago and was "working hard" as CFI or doing low-payed jobs is getting hired now. Pilots that graduated a year ago is next ones to be hired. Of course if they was doing something to get hours, and not just "waiting for better time".

Older pilots go out with the pension, making way for younger lads, people fly more, more airports getting expended and new ones gets build, companies expending their fleet.

Now, as WWW said, its a limit, how much companies can expend their fleets. However, new companies will join the market.
China is planing to build 45 new airports in next 10 years.
Oslo Gardermoen is to be expended within next 5 years (work have started already) and they are planning another expansion 5 years later.
So, companies gonna start adopting to the market, open new routes, which means, additionally expend their fleet.

My guess, pilot job market will be back to normal within next 2 years. After that, older pilots will leave, new will come. So it will stay on same level. Ofcourse, that all depends how many people will do pilot training. But more or less, it will be stable, at least until new crisis or something huge happens.

But industry will always need new pilots, simply because old ones quite. Some times (3-5 years periode), there will be higher demand for pilots (more pilots quite, then get graduated), other times, it will be opposite, and you will have to wait or work as CFI a bit longer. But with few exceptions, everyone one that work hard and do their best, will eventually get into the cockpit of new, shiny 737 and enjoy fulfilling their dream and being pilot.

[170to5]

why do people keep relying on for this enormous surge of retirements? hasn't it been due since 1905??

also the rate of expansion will be directly affected by the price of oil going through the roof as the developing world increases its consumption. people can only afford to pay so much to fly. for anyone interested, and it sounds like a lot aren't, it would be well worth watching the effect on the industry as oil goes up.

[KAG]

There will be less and less job available, even if sometimes it's hiring, we will always have less position available.

In the US for example, 25% less pilot the last past 30 years. Funniest if they kept speaking about a pilot shortage during all of those same 30 years.

As of the end of 2008, there were 613,746 active certificated pilots. This number has been declining gradually over the past several decades, down from a high of over 827,000 pilots in 1980.

Few opportunities, yes. Few pilot ritiring yes. More position, no. In the future? Much worse. Economy unstability, airplane with one pilote, fuel crisis, this the future, no escape.

If you like adventure and have the spirit, flying piston/turboprop around the world, discovering new languages and culture, then why not. Get a cheap single engine CPL and have a blast.

If you dream about jet and uniform, you will board one on the most stupid career, you will have no story to tell, you won't travel (airport), you will just be a modern monkey, modern because seated in a jet, and this is only if you find a job. Anyway lay off are to come, massive lay off within 10 years.

[cefey]

170to5
Oil prices not gonna affect industry THAT much.
Tickets will be more expensive because of oil, yes. But on the other hand. By how much? Lets say 10-20%. Now, usually I pay around 1000$ for my vacation (cheap one). 2000$ for more expensive.
Of those 1000-2000$, ticket cost is 100-200$ (depends where I go). So, increase in oil--->tickets prices by 20%.
Now, my vacation will cost between 1020 and 2040$. Will I cancel it because of that? No. Will anyone else? I dont think so.

Buisnes trips. You think all those "important" guys gonna stop traveling, because they have to pay 20-40$ more for their ticket? (lets make it 100, since they going on 1st class). I doubt that.
And last, but not least, oil prices up, will affect gas prices for everything. Boat, cars, busses. People still gonna need to travel. ALL prices will go up by same amount, not only planes. So, those who fly, instead of taking buss today, will do so in 5 years, when oil prices is much higher.

[Grass strip basher]

Oil price over US$100 again.... but of course that will have no impact

[KAG]

Oil prices not gonna affect industry THAT much.

I know human being don't learn from the past, and don't have much memory, but 2008 is that so long ago???

It won't affect it, it will put it down.

[7574ever]

KAG:

You fail to mention the fact that the majority of the certificates that are no longer active are Privates... Which makes sense since GA in the States peaked in the 70's and has been going downhill since then.

However, there's other numbers that you don't seem to account for.

Example: between 1999 and 2008 the number of active ATP certificates in the US rose by 9,196. What about that? I'm not making it up, it's all in the civil airmen stats section of the FAA website.

Look, I wouldn't recommend flight training to anyone either, but let's not hang ourselves just yet.

[cefey]

KAG
And what happend in 2008? You blame "high oil prices" and not global crisis for bad times in aviation?

And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis.
High oil prices "helped" and prolonged crisis, but in no way what so ever they was the reason.

And that exactly is a problem here. People blaming anything for "bad times" but the real causes.
Get the whole overview right and you will see, outlooks is not that bad, as many people on this forum try to make it look like.

[KAG]

Cefey, I understand your optimism, and I understand what you want for the future: a good career path in a healthy industry. Nothing wrong with that. But nothing wrong neither to bring you back to reality.

And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis.

Let me refresh your memory:

Tuesday 3 June 2008

The airline industry will lose $6.1bn (£3.1bn) this year if the oil price remains at record levels, with carriers facing a worse crisis than after the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, the International Air Transport Association has warned.

Airlines will move from a profit of $5.6bn last year to a loss of $6.1bn this year if oil is trading at $135 a barrel, according to forecasts from the global airline body. Giovanni Bisignani, its chief executive, said the industry was "struggling for survival", with 24 airlines going out of business since January.

"The situation is desperate and potentially more destructive than our recent battles with all the horsemen of the apocalypse combined," he told hundreds of airline executives at the Iata annual general meeting yesterday.

Iata said the industry's fuel bill would rise by at least $40bn to $176bn, wiping out last year's profit seven times over. The figure is based on a more conservative average oil price of $107 a barrel.

British Airways, which is one of only 14 airlines in the world with a profit margin of more than 10%, has admitted it could move from a profit of £883m to a loss over the next two years despite its robust cost base and balance sheet. The rest of the industry is less resilient and operates on an average profit margin of just over 1%, underlining the threat posed by a sudden spike in fuel costs.

The outlook for airlines worsens if current oil trends are factored in. If oil costs $107 a barrel, the industry would lose $2.3bn this year but the current level of $135 a barrel would push that deficit to $6.1bn, Iata warned.

"Just as we started to recover we face another crisis of potentially even greater dimension. Our industry is like Sisyphus. After a long uphill journey, a giant boulder of bad news is driving us back down," said Bisignani.

There was some respite for the industry yesterday, as oil fell below $126 a barrel.

In the Istanbul Declaration announced by Bisignani yesterday, Iata urged governments to drop airline ownership restrictions, such as limiting foreign control of US airlines to no more than 25% of their shares, and slash aviation taxes, such as air passenger duty in the UK. "Airlines are struggling for survival and massive changes are needed," he said.

Bisignani said the oil crisis would force governments to consider scrapping international flight agreements, which limit foreign shareholdings in airlines and restrict access to lucrative routes such as London to Hong Kong. The Open Skies agreement between the US and the European Union liberalised the transatlantic airline market this year, but talks on a second-stage agreement have stalled over the issue of lifting US ownership restrictions.

"We cannot fly to new markets without an international agreement. We cannot look beyond national borders to try new ideas, grow our business, access global capital, or merge and consolidate. We fight crisis after crisis with our hands tied because flags, not brands, define our business," said Bisignani.

Profitable airlines have raised fares and add-on fees over the past month, while the less financially secure, including UK-based Maxjet, Eos and Silverjet, have grounded their fleets and called in administrators. Bisignani warned there was no room left for cost cuts because airlines had increased fuel efficiency by 19% and reduced non-fuel costs by 18%. "There is no fat left," he said.

Ryanair, which was not at the conference, will report annual results today. It is expected to announce profits of about €484m (£383m), but that figure could halve over the next 12 months. According to reports, Europe's largest low-budget carrier might ground 10% of its fleet this winter to cut costs.

[KAG]

2nd June 2008 IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its industry financial forecast for 2008 significantly downwards to a loss of US$2.3 billion. The forecast uses a consensus oil price of US$106.5 per barrel crude (Brent). This is a swing of US$6.8 billion from the previously forecasted industry profit of US$4.5 billion that was announced in March and based on an average oil price of US$86 per barrel (Brent).

“For every dollar that the price of fuel increases, our costs go up by US$1.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO at the Association’s 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit (WATS/AGM) which opened today in Istanbul, Turkey.

The industry’s total fuel bill in 2008 is expected to be US$176 billion (based on oil at US$106.5 per barrel) accounting for 34% of operating costs. This is US$40 billion more than the 2006 bill which was US$136 billion (29% of operating costs). In 2002, the bill was US$40 billion, equal to 13% of costs.

“We also need to take a reality check. Despite the consensus of experts on the oil price, today’s oil prices make the US$2.3 billion loss look optimistic. For every dollar that the oil price increases, we add US$1.6 billion to costs. If we see US$135 oil for the rest of the year, losses could be US$6.1 billion,” said Bisignani.

“The situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks. Oil skyrocketing above US$130 per barrel has brought us into uncharted territory. Add in the weakening global economy and this is yet another perfect storm,” said Bisignani.

“Oil is changing everything. There are no easy answers. In the last six years, airlines improved fuel efficiency by 19% and reduced non-fuel unit costs by 18%. There is no fat left. To survive this crisis, even more massive changes will be needed quickly. Air transport is a catalyst for US$3.5 trillion in business and 32 million jobs. This is an extraordinary crisis with the potential to re-shape the industry with impacts throughout the global economy. Governments, industry partners and labour must deliver change,” said Bisignani.

[KAG]

Wikipedia: effect of the 2000s energy crisis:


Although Peak oil theorists such as David Goodstein, Richard Heinberg, and others, had for years predicted sharp declines in air travel following the peaking of world oil production and its subsequent decline,[35] air travel enjoyed robust growth around much of the world spurred by low jet fuel costs starting in the mid-1980s. For example, air travel in the United States grew five times faster than population in the decades after 1978, with 769 million passengers boarding U.S. airline flights in 2007.[36] However, the run-up in oil prices after 2003 began eroding airline profits, and the further doubling of oil prices from May 2007 to May 2008 began to have a substantial impact on airline operations, forcing airlines to reduce flight schedules, and pushing weaker carriers into merger or bankruptcy. During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
April 2008 began with four small airlines (Aloha Airlines, Champion Air, ATA Airlines and Skybus Airlines) ceasing operations in a period of a week. A fifth airline, Oasis Hong Kong Airlines ceased operations on April 9, 2008.[40] A sixth airline, Frontier Airlines filed for bankruptcy on April 11, 2008 to protect itself from its credit card processing company which was withholding airline ticket revenues. Frontier continues to operate under Chapter 11 and is working to get a new agreement with said company. Eos Airlines, a small specialty carrier with high costs, ceased operations on April 27, 2008. An eighth airline Nationwide Airlines ceased operations on April 29, 2008, due to the "impossibility" of profitably operating the Boeing 737-200 with oil prices of over $133 a barrel. The 737-200 is a 30 year old aircraft that is 30% less fuel efficient than new production 737's. On May 9, 2008, a ninth airline, EuroManx announced that it was ceasing all operations, citing rising fuel prices and reduced passenger numbers as the reasons.[41]

A 5% U.S. domestic capacity cut (since raised to around 15%) may be expanded to all airlines to save on fuel by eliminating older aircraft from their fleets similar to the exchange that took place in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Although a slightly larger cut happened in the aftermath of 9/11 (20%), this is the first time since the 1970s that airline service has been cut to save on fuel for the United States. Other airlines such as Ryanair and Scandinavian Airlines System have also cut capacity.[citation needed]

Increasing fuel prices also caused "deep downturns" in air travel within China and India, in favor of a return to ground travel.

[yardmaster]

WWW and 170to5 - are you all seriously suggesting that the economy is screwed and the long term outlook for the aviation industry is decline???

Where are you guys getting this from??? It is crackers.

Clearly none of you are economists. How many major countries' or regions' economies contracted last year? one (Spain). The IMF forecast none will contract this year - with global net growth of 4.2%.

Equity analysts, plane manufactorers and ICAO predit somewhere between 4-6% annual growth in the airline industry over the next 20 years. Even if not much growth comes from developed markets do you guys not see what is happening in Emerging markets?

OK, you don't have to believe the forecasts, but what about the airline industry historically? Passenger numbers have doubled every 15 years since 1970. Even in the last decade RPK (revenue passenger Kms) is up c15%.

Yes, oil prices are (one of the few) dark clouds on the horizon but consumers are getting used to inflationary pressures and besides, on average, fuel makes up 30% of an airlines cost. It's not exactly armageddon.

I just don't get where all this bearish mentaility from the forum comes from??? Aviation, like many other industries is cyclical - bad times follow good, good follows bad.

However Long term is good - please, chin up and be more positive!

[KAG]

7574ever: didn't see your post earlier, you have a point.