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Is pilot job market picking up at all??

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Old 14th Mar 2011, 06:37
  #101 (permalink)  
KAG
 
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Cool. Now, thanks to PPRuNe Towers, I looked randomly at 5 companies.
Alpi Eagles 8 foker 100, 2 boeing
AirClass Airways 1 boeing.
Omskavia 3 Tu154
Vyborg Airlines 2 Il
Siem Reap Airways International - 3 airplanes

In that article, it said, 25 companies, went bankrupt OR ceased their operation. So, it was 25 companies that went bankrupt. "25" is including ceased operation.

So, out of 5 companies I googled, 60 pilots lost their jobs (3 pilots for 1 airplane).
You must have used quite much time, to find companies with 16 or even 50 airplanes) Too bad PPRuNe Towers towers published the list and I could google it(

So, 25 companies WORLDWIDE going bankrupt. Biggest on is 50 airplanes, smallest one is 1 airplane. Average is like 10? No exactly something you call major airliner.
So it seems like your wiki-article is counting for airliners, any companies that have 1 or more jets.
The pprune towers list has 70 airlines, do you realize it? Different than 25, you understand?
The number of pilot for 1 airplane in my company is 8.
You use numbers with absolutly no knowledge to justify yourself in a way I have seldom seen.
You are the one wanting to put all the 2008 crisis only in those 25 airlines anyway, without knowing which ones you are talking about. And know you are completely lost with numbers, still want to make some calculation to explain us with FACTS that there were no crisis in 2008. That's almost sick.
2008 was a global aviation crisis, my company got rid of 60% of its fleet at that time. Our fleet begining 2008 was more important than the one we have today. Begining 2008 my airline forecast for 2011 was 200% more airplanes than we actually have now. In 2008 we downsized, 2009 it was easy to make some profit with a fuel at $30 sometimes (today it's $110), and we were recovering, my company got at that time (during the economic crisi) a few airplane back.



So, how many companies around the world, own at least 1 jet-plane? For sure more then 10.000.
Quit finding numbers out of your imagination, that's just silly. More than 10.000 airlines (wikipedia use airline, don't change the word) with 1 or more than 1 jet?

To compare, in 2006 SAS had around 2500 pilots. Since then they have increased their fleet quite much.
So, all pilots that lost their jobs, due to high oil-prices is something like 1 major company.

Now, lets think for a while. Do companies go bankrupt from time to time? Sure they do.
So, oil-crisis just killed 25 minor companies, that already had big issues?
25? you just said you googled your information from the pprune towers list, which has 70 airlines.
Anyway no, oil crisis did more than that, it touched all the airlines in the world, that's why it was a crisis, one of the aviation crisis the most important ever.

I still stand by my word.
Did doble in oil price had impact in aviation? Yes.
Is situation we have today, caused by that? No, global crisis have to take the blame.
90% global crisis, 10% oil prices.
Again with your numbers and calculation from your imagination and feelings, we are back in middle age, that is really not serious.
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 07:19
  #102 (permalink)  
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Anyway, cefey, I do beleive that you may see the 2008 aviation crisis slightly different now, than in your first post you completely denied the fuel price:
Cefey wrote:
KAG
And what happend in 2008? You blame "high oil prices" and not global crisis for bad times in aviation?

And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis.
High oil prices "helped" and prolonged crisis, but in no way what so ever they was the reason.

And that exactly is a problem here. People blaming anything for "bad times" but the real causes.
If you further your studies (which won't be hard to do at your level), you may learn that inflation, speculation, and oil prices (our economy is an oil economy) was one of the trigger concerning the economy crisis, in addition to be the main cause (oil price) of the airlines crisis in 2008. The best proof is that airlines crisis started before the economy turmoil, when oil prices were peacking. I know you will continue to argue that, prefering your own imagination and internal calculations on some particular events, but many of the ppruners here were flying begining of 2008 and remember what happened. Here are the official causes of the 2008 recession:
The decade of the 2000s saw a global explosion in prices, focused especially in commodities and housing, marking an end to the commodities recession of 1980–2000. In 2008, the prices of many commodities, notably oil and food, rose so high as to cause genuine economic damage, threatening stagflation and a reversal of globalization.

In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year. In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the U.S.A. The economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008 caused a dramatic drop in demand and prices fell below $35 a barrel at the end of the year. The high of 2008 may have been part of broader pattern of spiking instability in the price of oil over the preceding decade This pattern of spiking instability in oil price may be a product of Peak Oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.

The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the 34th G8 summit in July 2008.

Sulfuric acid (an important chemical commodity used in processes such as steel processing, copper production and bioethanol production) increased in price 3.5-fold in less than 1 year while producers of sodium hydroxide have declared force majeure due to flooding, precipitating similarly steep price increases.

In the second half of 2008, the prices of most commodities fell dramatically on expectations of diminished demand in a world recession






To try to come back on track, the subject being is the market picking up at all, here is an IATA report concerning 2011:

Outlook Downgraded to $8.6 Billion - High Oil Price Cuts Airline Profits by Almost 50%

Date: 2 March 2011

Outlook Downgraded to $8.6 Billion - High Oil Price Cuts Airline Profits by Almost 50%

Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its airline industry outlook for 2011 to $8.6 billion from the $9.1 billion it estimated in December 2010. This is a 46% fall in net profits compared to the $16 billion (revised from $15.1 billion) earned by the industry in 2010. On expected industry revenues of $594 billion, the $8.6 billion 2011 profit equates to a net profit margin of 1.4%.

“Political unrest in the Middle East has sent oil over $100 per barrel. That is significantly higher than the $84 per barrel that was the assumption in December. At the same time the global economy is now forecast to grow by 3.1% this year—a full 0.5 percentage point better than predicted just three months ago. But stronger revenues will provide only a partial offset to higher costs. Profits will be cut in half compared to last year and margins are a pathetic 1.4%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Forecast highlights:
Fuel: IATA raised its 2011 average oil price assumption to $96 per barrel of Brent crude (up from $84 in December), in line with market forecasts. Including the impact of fuel hedging, which is roughly 50% of expected consumption, this will increase the industry fuel bill by $10 billion to a total of $166 billion. Compared to levels in 2010, oil prices are now expected to be 20% higher in 2011. Fuel is now estimated to represent 29% of total operating costs (up from 26% in 2010).

Growing economies give airlines the opportunity to recover some of these added costs with additional revenues. For example, since early 2009, rising oil prices added 25% to unit costs while average fares (excluding surcharges) rose 20%. But in 2011 higher revenues are not expected to be sufficient to prevent the rise in oil prices from causing profits to shrink by 46% from 2010 levels.

Demand: An increase in global GDP forecasts to 3.1% (from 2.6% in December) bodes well for continuing strong demand for air transport. In line with this, IATA revised its passenger demand growth forecast to 5.6% (from 5.2%) and its cargo growth forecast to 6.1% (up from 5.5%). Overall, this will generate a 5.7% expansion in tonne kilometers flown.

Capacity: Published airline schedules indicate a capacity increase of 6%, slightly lower than the 6.1% previously forecast. Of this, 5% will come from the 1,400 new aircraft being introduced to the fleet over 2011. The additional 1% is expected to come from the normalization of underutilized capacity in the twin-aisle fleet.

Yields: With capacity expected to increase by 6% in 2011 and demand by 5.7%, the gap is 0.3 percentage points. This has narrowed from the previously forecast gap which was 0.8 percentage points. While there has been some weakening in passenger load factors, as of January they remained near record levels at a seasonally adjusted 77.7%. Freight load factors are also high compared to previous cyclical peaks. These tightening supply and demand conditions give scope for yield improvements. Passenger yields are expected to grow by 1.5% (up from the previous forecast of 0.5%) and cargo yields by 1.9% (up from the previous forecast of no growth).

Premium Travel: Premium traffic is an important contributor of a network airline’s profitability. Purchasing managers’ confidence is a leading indicator for business travel. In January, the JP Morgan/Markit Purchasing Managers Index hit a record high. Moreover, strong corporate reporting at the end of 2010 and expanding world trade will continue to drive business travel in 2011, albeit at a slower pace than we saw during the 2010 post-recession rebound.

Risks: Rising oil prices are always a challenge for airline profitability. If they are accompanied by strong growing economies and world trade, airlines have some opportunity to command prices that can offset the rising fuel costs. If, however, rising energy prices stall global economic growth there is a strong downside risk to this forecast. With oil prices now being driven by speculation on geopolitical events in the Middle East rather than strengthening economic growth, this is a significant downside risk.

“This year the industry is performing a balancing act on a very thin tight-rope of a 1.4% margin. It is a structural problem that the industry has faced with an average margin of just 0.1% over the last four decades. There is very little buffer for the industry to keep its balance as it absorbs shocks. Today oil is the biggest risk. If its rise stalls the global economic expansion, the outlook will deteriorate very quickly,” said Bisignani

IATA also highlighted the risk of increasing taxation, particularly in price sensitive leisure markets. In 2010, the industry saw new and increased taxes in the range of 3-5% of ticket prices in the UK, Germany and Austria. Recently, Iceland, India and South Africa have joined with plans for additional taxation. “This is a price sensitive business. Aviation has the power to stimulate economies. But that ability is being compromised by adding taxes at a time when we are struggling to cope with high fuel prices just to maintain anemic margins,” said Bisignani.

Regional highlights:
Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to deliver the largest collective profit of $3.7 billion and the highest operating margins of 4.6%. This is down substantially from the $7.6 billion that the region’s carriers made in 2010 and from the previously forecast $4.6 billion for 2011. While the strong economic growth in the region is still driving profitability, inflation fighting measures in China are slowing trade and air cargo demand. The key reason for the downgrade from December’s forecast is that the region is more exposed to higher fuel prices, due to relatively low hedging on average.

North American carriers are expected to deliver $3.2 billion profit, unchanged from the previous forecast and down from the $4.7 billion profit made in 2010. Higher oil prices will damage profitability in 2011, but earlier cuts in capacity have led to much stronger conditions for yields than elsewhere. The US economy has also been stronger than expected. Compared to our December forecast, better revenues in 2011 will offset higher fuel costs.

European carriers are expected to make a $500 million profit. This is up from the $100 million previously forecast, but well below the $1.4 billion that the region’s carriers made in 2010. It is the carry-over from better than expected 2010 second-half performance that has led to forecast revisions. The ongoing banking and government debt crisis are keeping domestic home markets fragile. But the weak Euro is continuing to provide stimulus to export industries, outbound freight and long-haul business travel which is driving the upgrading of the region’s profit forecast. Even so, Europe’s carriers remain the least profitable among the major regions with an EBIT margin of 1.1%.

Middle East carriers are expected to return a profit of $700 million. This is considerably better than the $400 million previously forecast, but down from the $1.1 billion profit that the region posted in 2010. Political instability in the region is expected to take its toll in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya which combined account for about 20% of the region’s international passenger traffic. This is balanced by the Gulf area which benefits from economic activity related to high oil prices and whose hubs continue to win long-haul market share. Load factors have also improved significantly for these airlines, as new capacity is being added at a slower pace than demand increases.

Latin American carriers are forecast to post a $300 million profit. This is down sharply from the $1 billion that the region made in 2010 and from the previously forecast $700 million. Strong economic growth and international trade in the region are driving travel and cargo demand and the region’s profits for airlines. Exposure to higher oil prices is the key reason for the expected deterioration in the region’s profitability this year.

African carriers are expected to break even. This is unchanged from the previous forecast but down from the $100 million profit that the region posted in 2010. Strong economic and transport demand growth on the back of foreign direct investment and rapidly growing trade links with Asia is keeping the region’s carriers out of the red. However, they face intensifying competition from Middle Eastern carriers and others for lucrative business traffic.
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Old 14th Mar 2011, 21:40
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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KAG,

Give it up ! Haven't you worked it out ? At 23 cefey is an aviation god, fountain of all knowledge. The Oracle of Aviation. At 23 he's reached this heady height without even an fATPL or even 5 years in management. Those who have been in this industry for decades, working on different continents, as cefey says, 'are not professionals'.

Good luck KAG, there's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

The 'know it alls' become too prevalent in these threads and despite other imparting the benefit of experience, they just don't want to know, unless it fits in with the glossy brochure from the FTO.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 00:19
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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I did have a very nice 30min chat with 2 SAS pilots (capt and FO).
Both of them was very positive.
To sum it up shortly:
"Right now, it is maybe the best time to take pilot education. After big crisis, aviation is quickly picking up again. In 3 years it will be major need for pilot in most european companies, unless anything major happens of course."

I was very happy to hear that. Quite much the same as I have been typing here for a month.

My dear "stuckgear", for sure, I dont know everything. Neither do you. But you know, when I hear REAL pilots, that I saw my self land a B737, say "its perfect timing for education"... well, I tend to beleive them, rather then "someone" who calles him self for "stuck-gear" on a forum. For all I know, you maybe be 17yo and not even have PPL.


KAG
I never denied influence of oil prices "at all". Maybe I just did express my self a bit wrong.
But my words was, high oil prices stands for 10%, global crisis stands for 90% of situation we are in today.
I see you dont like my "imagination numbers". Please, be so kind and calculate, exactly, how much aviation industry was affected by global crisis and how much it was affected by doubling in oil prices in 1 year. I insist on that, since you ALWAYS comment on my numbers.


Cefey = Troll.... or idiot.... or both?
Its not impossible to get a job no. But you may feel differently about aviation as a career in 5-10 years time when your T&Cs are in the dirt and you can't support the lifestyle your family wants.
There have been many like Cefey in the past... will be many like him in the future...
Thank you for your attempts on trying to insult me. People do that in discussions, when they are not able to come with any good and valid argument.
Now, I have to ask you, not to adress any more post to me, or name me.
I really do enjoy discussing different subject with smart people, cause I do learn quite much from it.
But if all you can do is "name-calling", you should rather go to kindergarden, there is more your style of argumentation.

v6g
Global crisis was building up over a time. It actually started in mid 2007 and was building until mid 2008.
Its very many various factors that impacted it, but high oil prices for 1 year, was not one of those, since oil prices vary very much in price all the time.
Actually, DROP in oil prices, caused crisis to increase highly in russia, norway and other countries, importing much oil.
But lets not talk about that. Its not the right forum and its way to big issue.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 04:13
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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No problem Cefey it was my pleasure... thank you for making it so easy for me to point out what an arrogant young man you come across as.

Perhaps print off this thread and show it to the "real" pilots you are talking about and see what their reaction is..... they will probably think you are a complete Sky God.

Good luck with your training. No one knows what the job market will be like in 1-2 years time when you pop out of the training sausage machine. That is what experienced, older people on here are trying to tell you. Nothing more nothing less. Today the job market may be picking up but this is irrelevent for someone like yourself just starting training. It matters for those now finishing their training and gambled 1-2 years ago. Fair play to them, that took some balls.

As for me going back to "kindergarden"... yep I have to drop my little boy off most days so funnily enough that is the one thing which you have probably got right
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 05:18
  #106 (permalink)  
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"Right now, it is maybe the best time to take pilot education. After big crisis, aviation is quickly picking up again. In 3 years it will be major need for pilot in most european companies, unless anything major happens of course."
Something major like what? Nuclear threat? ;-)








Grass strip basher wrote:
It matters for those now finishing their training and gambled 1-2 years ago. Fair play to them, that took some balls.
True. With everything else being equal, it's always better to start the training when the aviation industry is down. Starting when it's picking up, that's already too late. Something we will never understand.






Cefey, I truly understand what you want: a good future for the career path you have chosen. And who knows, it may happen for whatever reason.
Speaking about the aviation industry issues doesn't automatically condemn your choice. There is no "right" or "wrong" in our carrer choice, because many pilot have passion, and some of us would have never done anything else anyway.
I say that because I sense you directly linked your choice with the future of our industry. Believing in your choice means beleiving in the future of aviation for you. It's wrong: better to assume a choice with the eyes wide open. I am even going to tell you: it's even possible to enjoy to be a pilot in 2011.
But don't fool yourself, no being able to observe the real issues won't guaranty you hapiness nor career achievement.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 05:56
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No Cefey is an arrogant ****!

Going on on one of the nordic forums that most pilots without work are because of their own making, and because they do not bother look in every corner of Africa or Asia, if they do there would be work for them. And that he already before starting his ATPL theories, have 3 interviews lined up for job, 1 with a Norwegian airline, pretty good, must be SAS or Norwegian, who neither take in low hour pilots!
+ another 2 major carriers, with 50+ aircraft in fleet!
Then goes on bashing all others without work of just being lazy and not bothering to look hard enough for work!!!

At best that is Ingorant, at worst it is Arrogant!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 08:13
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This guy has to be a troll! How can someone be so naive.

Just because 2 pilots say it looks good, it must be okay then and everyone on here is wrong!!

Do us a favour Cefey and frequent another forum and leave the professionals to it. I hope I never have to fly with you on the flightdeck one day!

Stuckgear: excellent post, on the money!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 13:07
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lol
it seems like you trying to make it into forum on whiners, who for some reasons (I believe most of them is personal issues) cant get a job.

Now, lets make it clear, since I dont know you guys personal, I will not make any assumptions, as some people do it on this forum (many examples in last 20 post in this tread).
However, it must be a reason for so many people whining about "impossible to get a job", while calling your self professionals. Its reminds me about one of instructors we had at out school. Middle age guy, 14.000TT most of them in small jet. But no one would hire him. And I think he got fired from his CFI job as well btw... Reason is not "bad market", but him being one of the biggest ***holes I ever saw in my life.
My point is, not everyone here is like that, no doubts about that. Someone may actually had bad luck for last couple years, someone had luck but have a different opinion then me. However, the rest is... well, kind of like that instructor. Get positive attitude toward your self, aviation and other people and you actually may see a light in the end of the tunnel.


KAG i started my education 2 years ago. Ill finish it off in 8-9 months from now. And that my point in this (and some other) treads. I know people who got their jobs. Several of them. Market is NOT dead, it is possible to get a job with right attitude and hard work.


BoeingDreamer
Please, stop spamming and trolling. In your last 20 post on this forum, I saw maybe 1-2 relevant and objective posts. Rest was just whining or complaining, or trying to offend someone. Dont you have anything better to do? But honestly? I answered you once or twice on nordic forum, after you asked me about something. And now you chasing me in every thread. Get a life, dude, get a life.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 13:28
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Don't flatter yourself Cefey, your last post shows the right attitude, keep that going and good luck with your job search in 8 - 9 months.

Some of your posts are a load of nonsense, I am not here to lecture you or anybody else.

However there are others here, much wiser and more experienced then you and me, which you completely ignore, you seems to be infatuated in yourself and how great and unique you are compared to the rest of us losers out here.

All I can say, is welcome to the ride, it will be an unpleasant one, but you will end up wiser afterwards. Sorry, but I know in Norway many people have a very naive and innocent attitude to life, I am sure in this business long enough and that will improve.

The best options today are Ryan Air, if you want to get into airlines directly, if you don't manage to get into them, that's when the panic button will start, because there are not many else that will take you on. However with your attitude, you won't even get in with RYR!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 14:17
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I'm with cefey on this one.

Aviation isn't the only tough industry around and sometimes you have to make your own luck.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 14:22
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Agree, it is not the only tough one. I done business/self employed for 20 years, that's tough.

But how many jobs do you see they ask you to put up Ł35.000 to get work experience, and then they kick you out after you finish, and get the next one in!
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 16:05
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BoeingDreamer
I dont really understand you.
In 1 post, you say "experienced pilots is not in touch with reallity about change on getting a job" and in other one you say "many people is much more experienced then you and me and they know much better".

Anyway, what I see (people I know, people I talk to), market IS improving all the time.
I hope young lads, who is considering pilot carrier, will follow their dreams and complete education.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 16:20
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Many established airline pilots are not in the know, about the in's and outs of getting that first job today, in the current market.

Your discussion in this thread, was however regarding a different matter, with regards to if there are less or more pilots in getting employment.
There are many pilots getting new jobs at the moment, but they all have plenty of experience, so not in the same category as we are.

You believe that there are plenty of jobs for low hour pilots around in the world, while you are being told and shown, there are not! You still deny to the facts presented to you, and insist the only reason there are FI's with 2000 hours TT don't get other jobs is because they are lazy or stupid!

You will be surprised what a promise today will mean when you actually come knocking on someone's door.

I have contacts at a couple of airlines/companies, all the way to the top, guess what, it might help, it might not. We will never know, but be prepared for nothing, because I think there will be a lot of headknocking before newbies get their first proper job.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 03:51
  #115 (permalink)  
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To stay on topic, is pilot job market picking up at all?, let's speak about our economy and fuel price:


The Dow Jones industrial average plunged nearly 300 points in early trading before recovering more than half of its losses to finish down nearly 138 points at 11,855, a six-week low. The uncertainty fueling the selloff could hang over stock markets and the global economy for a while, analysts say.

"The headlines are scary. Nuclear environmental disasters scare people," Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equities strategist for JPMorgan Chase, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The global financial turmoil sparked by Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis — which has wiped out about $300 billion in U.S. stock values alone this week — is particularly troubling for the United States and several other countries, where an economic recovery has been showing signs of derailing because political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has led to a sharp run-up in crude oil prices.

Already, the turmoil in Japan is affecting U.S. companies, investors and consumers, threatening disruptions in the flow of products and parts used to manufacture everything from Apple iPads to Sony televisions.

Insurers that have large exposure to potential Japanese claims saw their stock prices sink Tuesday. So did that of industrial giant General Electric, a big player in nuclear power and the maker of the damaged reactors at Japan's beleaguered Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, where the ongoing battle to contain radiation is renewing long-running questions about the design of GE's reactors.

MARKETS: U.S. stocks drop as fear about crisis spreads
ENERGY: Japan's nuke threat 'a wake-up call' for the U.S.
Meanwhile, Toyota's Kentucky manufacturing plant, which produces Camrys and other popular models for the Japanese automaker, has begun cutting overtime shifts because of concerns about the flow of auto supplies from Japanese factories.

The bigger concern is the simple unknown of what's happening in Japan, the world's third-biggest economy after the USA and China. Will its nuclear crisis unravel further, and discourage activity in some industrial areas or even spread radioactive contamination well beyond Japan? How will the country manage its earthquake recovery? And in the USA, what will be the long-term effect on Wall Street and Main Street?

"Right now, investors are justifiably worried," says economist Ethan Harris of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The really big risk aversion (to stocks) started in the Middle East. With what's happening in Japan, the two have created dread and uncertainty. Nobody's done scenario planning for this type of disaster. It's terrifying."

As long as Japan's nuclear crisis doesn't significantly worsen, most economists expect the overall impact to the United States to be minimal. Japan accounts for 6.4% of U.S. imports and about 4.7% of exports.

However, further selloffs on Wall Street could have an impact on consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

"Extreme uncertainty over the extent of the nuclear disaster may add to a sense that global events are spinning out of control," notes Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight. "This can make consumers — and perhaps businesses — more fearful, which in turn can lead to postponement of decisions to purchase or hire."

Consumers also could be crimped by rising fuel prices, up nearly 30% in recent weeks.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 03:54
  #116 (permalink)  
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Oil prices threaten double-dip recession

March 2011

Further sharp increases in the price of oil would be enough to push some advanced economies back into recession, says Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial downturn.
Unrest in the Middle East has contributed to driving up prices to post-global recession peaks.

Analysts are now asking whether prices could touch the record highs of 2008, shortly before the financial downturn sent them tumbling.

"If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at US$140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip," Prof Roubini, of New York University, said yesterday in Dubai. In the faster-growing US, a surge to those levels could slow down expansion, he said.

Speculative flows from the West have helped to push up Brent crude oil prices to levels approaching $120 against a backdrop of persistent turmoil in the region. Prices of Brent dropped to $113.64 a barrel yesterday, however.

"Oil prices are unbalancing the world economy," said Tim Fox, the chief economist of Emirates NBD. "Speculative activity was partly responsible for the oil spike that led to prices crashing in 2008. Now, zero interest rates are again encouraging speculative funds into all kinds of asset classes."

For the Gulf, higher oil prices would appear to be a boon by helping to replenish government revenues. The increase prompted the IMF on Monday to marginally upgrade its economic forecast for the UAE this year to 3.3 per cent, from a previous outlook of 3.2 per cent.



Nevertheless, the IMF warned the situation was not all beneficial for the economy.

"If these prices are sustained for a long time they may start having an impact on the economic recovery because of the impact on global demand," said Taline Koranchelian, an IMF adviser.

European economies have been highlighted as among those most vulnerable to advancing oil prices. The UK, Ireland, Greece and Spain, in particular, remain fragile as they rebalance their economies from excessive debt levels.

As a signal of how delicate the European recovery remained, Prof Roubini said the European Central Bank (ECB) might be raising interest rates prematurely as many countries tried to regain competitiveness.

The ECB announced last week it was likely to raise rates as early as next month.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 06:05
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Cefey alias Alice in Wonderland,

I just received a call from SAS HR and they told me to ask you what plane you want fly. You have the choice. You want turboprop or jet?. IF iwas you I would go on 747 or 340. they train you for free, don't worry. just come with pens and paper.

when you want start your training? and your base?

this is important, please pm asap.we have a class starting begining April 2011.

hope to hear from you.

SAS HR

Last edited by captainsuperstorm; 17th Mar 2011 at 06:00.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 14:11
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Cefey: This is from BALPA website, are they also wrong?

Despite what the schools will often tell you, there is not a shortage of pilots in the industry, nor are there signs of one occurring soon. There may, however, be a shortage of experienced pilots, those who have several thousand hours flying commercial jet aircraft. There is a stark difference between the two, and unfortunately most people who finish their flight training, even from the mainstream schools who claim to have good connections with airlines, often find themselves unable to even apply for the vast majority of jobs because they lack the experience required. This is something which the training schools will never admit to, but you will need to be prepared for.

Bridging the gap between qualifying and gaining employment is fraught with difficulties, and often requires buying expensive additional training in the hope of finding a job. You need to think very carefully before you enroll on a flight training course, and decide whether you can afford to finish the course and not find a job. Getting onto an airline sponsored scheme where a job is offered upon completion may be the safest way, but there will be fierce competition for places on such schemes.
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Old 17th Mar 2011, 01:10
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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BoeingDreamer

I understood looong long time ago (like 2 month into my education, even before my 1st flight hour), that school just telling stuff, ONLY to get you in. You are absolutely right on that.

However, what Im saying here, is mine opinion and not what schools told me.
My opinion is formed out of my experience, experience of people I know and what TRUSTED people tells me (not someone on the forum, but pilots etc i know in a real life).

Fair enough, everyone wants experienced people for the job.
But where will you get those guys? Crisis - people loose jobs. Get rehired later. Cool.
But lets say "no one" hires inexperienced pilots for next 20 years. So, where will you get experienced pilots after that?

My point is, "best" companies dont take in pilots with "no time", unless you know someone in the system.
However, there will ALWAYS be companies that taking in guys with low hours.
Flying for low payment, like CFI is kind of part of education.
And once you done with it, you will get a job. At least most of people will.
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Old 17th Mar 2011, 06:13
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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you talk a lot cefey!!!, but you don't prove anything here.

I want you to apply to airline and get a job next week.
how many CV have sent so far? none.

how many flying jobs did you get so far? none

how much money to you bring home every month from flying? NONE!


so keep it down, or go back to your wonderland. We don't need ice smoker here. We are professional pilots, not 16 yo kid like you with no life experience. go get your own experience!

for me, you are like these young naive chaps I sometimes meet who are totally blinded by the flying dream, who got money from their daddy, and thinks a jet job will wait for them once their blue license is in their flying bag..
get a uni degree, and go work...maybe you are too lazy? what's wrong with Uni, maybe you are not smart enough? and you want become a professional pilot?

most guys I know, don't want fly at night, don't want wake up at 0400, etc.

Are you aware that being a pilot is hard job and only reserved for the hard workers.

Son,have you done at least your military service?
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