170to5
Well, ofcourse oil will affect companies in some way. But imo not even close, to what KAG try to make it too.
like "
During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations."
Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to
0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
Now, its not me, that make it sound like companies choose to loose money. That KOGs words. What I say, companies will increase ticket prices with 5-10%, for each 30% increase in oil prices.
I dont say market will be awesome in 2-3 years and gonna stay that way forever.
But in 2-3 years, it will be "normal". That means you most likely still gonna need to work as CFI or something to build some experience first, but then you will be able to get a job.
Unless something big happens (9/11, crisis) or something big positive, market will stay that way and will be regulated by how many pilots quite/how many new get their licenses.
Its still will be expansion in fleets. Maybe not that much at Ryanair. But hey, there is still 10.000-20.000 other airliners but them.
As well, you have to consider, where are you willing to work. If you no way can move away from UK, then yes, you limit your opportunities. If you are willing to move to Italy or Spain (I would LOVE to do that!) or any other countries in europe, then suddenly market is much better.
Then you have to look at, are you willing to evt. pay for your type (another 20.000$, after spending 80.000)?
Another point to look at, are you willing to start at turboprop or you are "737 only"?!
If you are kind of guy, looking to get job after getting JAA ATPL with 200hrs, no MCC or Type (and you are not willing to pay for it), you looking at jobs only in the UK and only in heavy jets, then you are right guys, market will be very bad.
In other hand, if you do you CFI and get 1000+ hours, get your MCC, may be willing to pay for type, take your first job anywhere in europe and can start on Let, Dash or something like that... you will find that there is huge market for new pilots in 2-3 years.
Maybe Im wrong... but lets hope Im not
