Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
WWW, I had stopped posting on this thread because there will always be those 'who know better'. Over the years on PPRuNe we've seen people come and go and various opinions.
Luckily, there are some who can see the wood through the trees. I, for one, wouldn't wish to put people off pursuing a dream, as i'm sure a lot of us have once done, but people still won't agree with you.
I wish I had the money to copy your gamble. (not much of a gamble I feel)
If you get this right, will the naysayers desist? Probably not. They'll still have their heads jammed firmly in the sand.
Luckily, there are some who can see the wood through the trees. I, for one, wouldn't wish to put people off pursuing a dream, as i'm sure a lot of us have once done, but people still won't agree with you.
I wish I had the money to copy your gamble. (not much of a gamble I feel)
If you get this right, will the naysayers desist? Probably not. They'll still have their heads jammed firmly in the sand.
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£150,000,000,000 of QE (about £2,400 for every head in the country), 0.5% interest rates... and we're still in negative growth. They have no ammo left! As these funds dry up into 2010 and the government is forced to raise interest rates against continued rising unemployment, where will this leave the economy?
American banks continue to fail, foreclosures continue at a record rate, unemployment has by no means peaked. Nothing has changed since we entered this downturn! And yet stocks have already rebounded 50%!
Hold onto your hats
American banks continue to fail, foreclosures continue at a record rate, unemployment has by no means peaked. Nothing has changed since we entered this downturn! And yet stocks have already rebounded 50%!
Hold onto your hats
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"I've shorted the FTSE today over the next 6 months at £9 a point. This suckers gonna blow."
brave
I agree its headed seriously south again before the real bottom and it ought to happen in October as usual BUT your downside is presumably unlimited (?) since you are short and the market is anything but rational. If enough fools think it will go up when Abby Cohen, CNBC etc. says it will it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and they turn out to be geniuses. The summer rally WAS exceedingly hollow (in the US it was 70% HFT algos) but the volume (i.e. retail fools/geniuses) are coming back now.
Good luck. The safer bet is to sit on the sidelines until we're back to the March lows (or lower). It will be interesting to see if Goldman is brazen enough to publicly 'dump' the market in this political climate, having 'pumped' it. Of course, they're probably already telling their most favoured clients to short already and its interesting that corporate insiders have been heavy net sellers throughout this suckers (?) rally.
brave
I agree its headed seriously south again before the real bottom and it ought to happen in October as usual BUT your downside is presumably unlimited (?) since you are short and the market is anything but rational. If enough fools think it will go up when Abby Cohen, CNBC etc. says it will it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and they turn out to be geniuses. The summer rally WAS exceedingly hollow (in the US it was 70% HFT algos) but the volume (i.e. retail fools/geniuses) are coming back now.
Good luck. The safer bet is to sit on the sidelines until we're back to the March lows (or lower). It will be interesting to see if Goldman is brazen enough to publicly 'dump' the market in this political climate, having 'pumped' it. Of course, they're probably already telling their most favoured clients to short already and its interesting that corporate insiders have been heavy net sellers throughout this suckers (?) rally.
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rates rise
Several posters have mentioned how (UK) interest rates will HAVE to rise-could someone briefly explain the reason? As far as I am aware Japan had a whole decade of low interest rates when it's economy went pear-shaped in the 90's. Many thanks, BK
Japan is a massively exporting nation and we are not. We will suffer very high inflation as a consequence of printing hundreds of billions of pounds worth of funny money. The only way to stop a Sterling collapse will be to offer an attractive rate of interest to the world. We will have high interest rates.
That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.
Anyway. Real interest rates are much higher than 0.5%. Tried getting a mortgage for less than 5% lately?
The debt-monster really will eat us.
WWW
ps Goldman are brazen.
That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.
Anyway. Real interest rates are much higher than 0.5%. Tried getting a mortgage for less than 5% lately?
The debt-monster really will eat us.
WWW
ps Goldman are brazen.
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The debt-monster really will eat us.
ps Goldman are brazen.
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SkyEurope out of business...
From R&N...
SkyEurope out of business was expected by most I think, but a few more type rated, experienced guys for you inexperienced, non type rated guys to be up against!
SkyEurope out of business was expected by most I think, but a few more type rated, experienced guys for you inexperienced, non type rated guys to be up against!
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Decline in UK personal debt level
The total amount of personal debt in the UK has fallen for the first time since records began in 1993, the Bank of England has said. Personal borrowing fell by £600m in July, taking the total owed by individuals down to £1.457 trillion.
Yep - debt deflation here we come. Thats a disaster for any economy driven by increasing credit to drive growth. That'll be most Western ones then..
They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.
Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.
SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.
WWW
They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.
Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.
SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.
WWW
Yep - debt deflation here we come. Thats a disaster for any economy driven by increasing credit to drive growth. That'll be most Western ones then..
They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.
Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.
SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.
WWW
ps 13 Boeing 737's so at 5 crews per aircraft you're talking in the region of 130 pilots.
They will do anything to avoid deflation because so many people would fall behind the curve and be in a position whereby their indebtedness was impossible to escape. Once that is widespread then there is nothing to stop MASS personal bankruptcy.
Perhaps such a system reset is perhaps the solution.
SkyEurope is a decent sized airline and they've just put hundreds of pilots out of work. They will not be the last although I'm suprised that airline failure season has started so early this Winter.
WWW
ps 13 Boeing 737's so at 5 crews per aircraft you're talking in the region of 130 pilots.
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Anyone reading or contributing to this thread who is trying to pursue themselves that the industry is on the rebound is living in cloud cuckoo land.
We've seen today another carrier has gone down with probably more to follow as the down period starts in the coming months for the European winter period.
In the UK we have Virgin shedding pilots, BA look like they may do shortly and some of the UK Charters don't look too rosy. These carriers probably won't be the place where most wannabes get their 1st wings, but experienced pilots tend to be given first place in the cue when airlines are hiring.
For recent historical perspective, after 9-11 the airline industry was in turmoil, it took a good 2 or more years before the upturn happened. This was against the background of a strong world economy.
Now isn't a good time to start training, but I would venture a year or so may be optimal timing.
We've seen today another carrier has gone down with probably more to follow as the down period starts in the coming months for the European winter period.
In the UK we have Virgin shedding pilots, BA look like they may do shortly and some of the UK Charters don't look too rosy. These carriers probably won't be the place where most wannabes get their 1st wings, but experienced pilots tend to be given first place in the cue when airlines are hiring.
For recent historical perspective, after 9-11 the airline industry was in turmoil, it took a good 2 or more years before the upturn happened. This was against the background of a strong world economy.
Now isn't a good time to start training, but I would venture a year or so may be optimal timing.
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Airline losses 'hit $1bn a month'
Airlines are likely to have lost more than $6bn (£3.7bn) in the first half of 2009, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata). This figure - an average of $1bn a month - is double the amount Iata said in December that airlines would lose during the whole of 2009.
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For recent historical perspective, after 9-11 the airline industry was in turmoil, it took a good 2 or more years before the upturn happened. This was against the background of a strong world economy...but I would venture a year or so may be optimal timing.
Keep an eye on Boeing's 787 progress, any furthur delays may just result in the UK market been flooded with pilots as certain airlines refuse to carry its surplus in a year or two. These will be pilots with multiple jet types and 1000's of hours...so much more to come!
I think the current situation is similar or worse than the 1991 recession. That time it wasn't really until 1996 that things picked up for pilot recruitment. Sept 11th was a two year hiccup. This is a major five year belch.
Things will pick up again at some point in the future. The question is whether you can keep your license and ratings current until that point. Many can't, crash and burn.
Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.
Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.
Which is scary as I'm far closer to that than I am to being a Wannabe these days!
WWW
Things will pick up again at some point in the future. The question is whether you can keep your license and ratings current until that point. Many can't, crash and burn.
Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.
Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.
Which is scary as I'm far closer to that than I am to being a Wannabe these days!
WWW
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Japan is a massively exporting nation and we are not. We will suffer very high inflation as a consequence of printing hundreds of billions of pounds worth of funny money. The only way to stop a Sterling collapse will be to offer an attractive rate of interest to the world. We will have high interest rates.
That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.
That's when house prices will stage their second collapse.
I think the UK will be able to hold down rates for a while yet. Who is offering anything significantly better? They will have to rise when the Fed and ECB do it BUT a sterling crisis will happen regardless at some point in the next 2-3 years ... its just too easy a target for the speculators (unlike the dollar - which is China's problem anyway) - they'll get round to it eventually.
It'll be interesting to see the timing as to which factor really kills 'UK Housing Ltd" - rising interest rates (and with the credit spreads as they are now mortage rates would be >10% even with 'normal' base rates) or the huge spike in unemployment in the pipeline when the public sector gets shredded by the Tories. My guess is the latter will happen first - I can almost name the day.
Bottom line is that average UK living standards will be set back by decades and demand for air travel will adjust correspondingly significantly downards and so will capacity - including (albeit with a lag) FTO capacity. The die is already cast and nothing can stop it now. If the result is a long term cultural aversion to taking on personal debt (something that is still true in parts of Europe) it might not be such a bad thing.
Since I bought dollars at 2:1 (1.97 to be precise) and exited stage left with zero debt I can't wait to pick up a bargain 3 years from now with property 50% down from the top and Sterling at parity with the dollar
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Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.
Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.
Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.
I take your point(s).
The very necessary contraction of public sector employment will (I think) be the trigger for the second collapse of house prices back to 3.5 times average income. Rising interest rates will be the double tap.
I'd have let several banks collapse, yes. Its always framed as being unthinkable. Catastrophic. It isn't. But that's a whole different discussion.
You are certainly correct when you say that demand for air travel is going to go back decades. The very thought of the average British worker being able to afford a time-share or holiday villa in the sun as well as their own house in the UK will be hilarious within a decade. The second home was the preserve of the rich - the top 4% of earners - for all of time. Then along came a house price bubble from 2001 to 2007 and suddenly the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly.
Unfortunately the break neck expansion of the UK airline industry for the last decade has been largely based on this shifting sand.
Spanish Costas may be down 40% now. Just wait until the UK public sector wage slashing, job losses and further house price collapses kick in.
If this is World War Two then its 1941. The phoney war is over. Dunkirk has happened. The proper bombing has just started and the next couple of years are going to be sh.... unpleasant.
WWW
The very necessary contraction of public sector employment will (I think) be the trigger for the second collapse of house prices back to 3.5 times average income. Rising interest rates will be the double tap.
I'd have let several banks collapse, yes. Its always framed as being unthinkable. Catastrophic. It isn't. But that's a whole different discussion.
You are certainly correct when you say that demand for air travel is going to go back decades. The very thought of the average British worker being able to afford a time-share or holiday villa in the sun as well as their own house in the UK will be hilarious within a decade. The second home was the preserve of the rich - the top 4% of earners - for all of time. Then along came a house price bubble from 2001 to 2007 and suddenly the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly.
Unfortunately the break neck expansion of the UK airline industry for the last decade has been largely based on this shifting sand.
Spanish Costas may be down 40% now. Just wait until the UK public sector wage slashing, job losses and further house price collapses kick in.
If this is World War Two then its 1941. The phoney war is over. Dunkirk has happened. The proper bombing has just started and the next couple of years are going to be sh.... unpleasant.
WWW
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I'd have let several banks collapse, yes.
the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly
Spanish Costas may be down 40% now
If this is World War Two then its 1941