I take your point(s).
The very necessary contraction of public sector employment will (I think) be the trigger for the second collapse of house prices back to 3.5 times average income. Rising interest rates will be the double tap.
I'd have let several banks collapse, yes. Its always framed as being unthinkable. Catastrophic. It isn't. But that's a whole different discussion.
You are certainly correct when you say that demand for air travel is going to go back decades. The very thought of the average British worker being able to afford a time-share or holiday villa in the sun as well as their own house in the UK will be hilarious within a decade. The second home was the preserve of the rich - the top 4% of earners - for all of time. Then along came a house price bubble from 2001 to 2007 and suddenly the working class all thought they could have a place-in-the-sun and that this was normal and reasonable. It wasn't. It isn't. Its going to end horribly.
Unfortunately the break neck expansion of the UK airline industry for the last decade has been largely based on this shifting sand.
Spanish Costas may be down 40% now. Just wait until the UK public sector wage slashing, job losses and further house price collapses kick in.
If this is World War Two then its 1941. The phoney war is over. Dunkirk has happened. The proper bombing has just started and the next couple of years are going to be sh.... unpleasant.
WWW